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Political Positioning for the Negotiations on a New Global Climate
Agreement
The Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster
Reduction (GNDR)
Latin America and the Caribbean Region
6 November 2015
Introduction
Between 30 November and 11 December 2015, Paris will host a new round of
negotiations of the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Here, there will be an attempt to agree on
a new global climate agreement for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
that will supersede the failed Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol was agreed in 1994
with the primary objective of reducing emissions by 5% by the year 2012 compared
with GHG emissions in 1990, something that in practice has not been achieved. Quite
to the contrary, these emissions have risen since 1990 because efforts made by
countries to modify their energy matrices and excessive consumption patterns have
not matched commitments made at the UNFCCC.
The current situation will have major structural implications. Therefore, the Global
Network of Civil Society Organizations for Disaster Reduction (hereinafter referred to
as GNDR), which is composed of more than 850 organisations from 137 countries, has
decided to speak out in the face of increased climate change and the threats to the
social and natural systems this implies. Events such as droughts, floods, rural / forest
fires, the El Niño phenomenon, and hurricanes will very probably increase in
frequency, intensity and date of occurrence. This will create a higher level of risk of
disasters that mostly affect communities with high levels of exposure and technical,
economic, environmental and social vulnerability.
This document provides an overview of the process of the global negotiations on
climate change, emphasising the current situation, which is of particular importance as
it may lead to a new climate agreement with global implications. In addition, the
document proposes the implementation of policies and adaptation measures on
climate change aimed at the reduction of exposure and vulnerability. This is because
these are the factors with the greatest relative weight regarding the risk of disasters
and their impacts, which is one of the most important effects of climate variability and
climate change. Finally, it summarises the political positioning of GNDR relative to the
process of global climate negotiations and the challenge of the reversal of trends
toward increasing the impact of disasters.
Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Reduction
8 Waldegrave Rd, Teddington, Middlesex, TW11 8HT (United Kingdom)
+44 (0)2089 777726 | [email protected]
www.gndr.org
I. Roadmap and current state of global negotiations of response to climate
change
Starting in 2007, a first period of crisis in global negotiations on climate change
occurred, which at that time revolved around the so-called Bali roadmap. This was
agreed to develop, agree and adopt a new global climate agreement on key themes,
including financing, adaptation, the Kyoto Protocol, and technology transfer. Despite
the fact that between the adoption of the Bali roadmap and the intersessional meeting
held in Bangkok in October 2009, when significant progress was achieved in dozens
of draft documents on thematic agreements, in the Copenhagen COP on December
15 of that year, these prior agreements were not taken into account when proposing
the Copenhagen agreement, which also failed.
Since that time, the process of negotiating a new global climate agreement has been
conducted in a softened and diluted atmosphere that questions the multilateral
character of the UNFCCC. A proof of this is the proposal of the above-mentioned
Copenhagen Agreement for each country to provide its own emission reduction targets
unilaterally. This idea then took hold with the agreement of the COP 20 in Lima, which
aimed to have each country develop a report on Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs). This report had to contain a proposal for a reduction in
emissions that had to consider the national capacities of each country, the National
Approved Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), the national adaptation plans and the national
communications on climate change.
As things stand, the goals will depend on what each country considers appropriate in
accordance with the corresponding studies. Even the year of reference used for
calculating reductions is not yet standard; each country proposes what it most needs
without necessarily being consistent with the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC.
Therefore, the challenges to negotiation of a new global agreement not only mean the
multilateral regime of the UNFCCC is weakened, but also that there are no parameters
assumed for all the partners to calculate their emission reductions. Everything depends
on their own criteria; in other words, on unilateral decisions taken by each country.
In short, we are at a crucial time for defining the future of the UNFCCC and the
roadmap for a response to climate change. This is partly because the goals for the
reduction of GHG emissions are at stake. In addition, doors are opening to the adoption
and implementation of policies and adaptation measures vital for reducing the risk of
disasters, the impact of disasters and, at the same time, for promoting security and
human dignity. This context is significant for reviewing the importance that the
response, and especially adaptation to climate change, has for Latin America. This is
happening in a context of continually growing risk and increasing impact of disasters,
which demands the adoption of policies and priority measures for reducing the
exposure and vulnerability of social and natural systems, given that weather hazards
are already evident and cannot be reversed as efficiently as processes and social
factors.
Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Reduction
8 Waldegrave Rd, Teddington, Middlesex, TW11 8HT (United Kingdom)
+44 (0)2089 777726 | [email protected]
www.gndr.org
II. The response to climate change must emphasise the reduction of exposure
and vulnerability
Regardless of whether the UNFCCC achieves its ultimate goal of maintaining an
increase in temperature in the range of 1.5° to 2° C above pre-industrial levels, the
situation of the broad strata of the population of Latin America and developing countries
fully justifies the implementation of adaptation measures to high-risk conditions of
prevailing disasters, even without taking climate change into account. According to
consolidated statistics, between 1990 and 2011 the records of disasters in Latin
America experienced a large increase from 1,773 records per year for the period of
1990-1995 to an astonishing average of 7,359 records per year in the period of 20072011, which implies an increase of 315%.1
Not all of this dynamic is due to climate change. Most of it stems from the configuration
of human systems and, consequently, it is essential that the societies most affected by
risk and disasters make compromises and develop actions to improve the conditions
for human security and development levels in their societies. Only in this way you can
we be assured that climate will not be a permanent and growing threat, given the
current scenarios that show that GHG emissions, far from diminishing, have increased
in the last few decades whilst the Kyoto Protocol has been in force. Paradoxically,
these emissions have also generated a growing and widespread interest in
negotiations for a new global climate agreement.
In the face of this, it is important to underline the fact that, in the same way that there
is no possible adaptation if we do not reduce emissions by at least 25% below 1990
levels by 2020, nor will there be if we do not address the underlying problems that are
at the basis of exposure and vulnerability of the majority of the population of Latin
America and the Caribbean. This involves addressing a series of sector-specific
themes and assuming a sustainable development approach that is coherent and
consistent with the efforts of adaptation. These sectors include agriculture, local
capacity-building, housing, transportation, energy, environment, international relations,
and the strengthening of local government, to mention the most important.
III. The positioning of GNDR in the face of the ongoing process of negotiating a
new global agreement in response to climate change
Because of the reasons stated above, the GNDR region of Latin America and the
Caribbean believes that there are five critical elements that must be revisited in the
upcoming negotiations on a new global climate agreement. It is essential to:
a. Demand a legally binding global climate agreement that will motivate developed
countries to fulfil their prior commitments on emissions reduction, technology
1
OSSO Corporation and the United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). Impact of
disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean 1990-2011. Trends and statistics for 16 countries.
Report. S. l. 2013.
Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Reduction
8 Waldegrave Rd, Teddington, Middlesex, TW11 8HT (United Kingdom)
+44 (0)2089 777726 | [email protected]
www.gndr.org
transfer, adaptation, finance and education, among others. Regardless of any new
agreement to be adopted at the next COP in Paris, there are already commitments
from developed countries to cooperate with developing countries to reduce the
observed and projected impacts of climate, and these should not be ignored or
replaced by the INDCs. On the contrary, these prior commitments should be
restated in the new agreement, which must be legally binding, because otherwise
adaptation to current and future climate is simply not feasible. The allocation of
resources and the strengthening of national capacities for adaptation are essential,
and require financial initiatives such as the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation
Fund, and any others that might be created, to respond to the reality of the most
disaster-prone human settlements, while at the same time promoting working
relationships with local government and non-governmental organisations with local
capacity.
b. Avoid the adoption of false solutions to climate change. Measures related to the
carbon market, forest conservation, reforestation and everything related to
preserving carbon in the soil are desirable for the purposes of financing, adaptation
and risk reduction, but should not simply be taken without considering the priority
for mitigation. What is important is that GHG emissions are reduced at source, that
is, in the developed countries and in some developing countries with high
emissions, for which reliable estimates can be obtained concerning the behaviour
of the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere.
c. Require Latin American governments to present their commitments or Intended
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and, in other cases, to raise the bar
in terms of their ambition levels. As detailed in Section I, countries have undertaken
a series of commitments in terms of formulation and monitoring that were not
honoured by a good number of Latin American countries that have not developed
the necessary research processes to communicate their INDCs in a scientific way
that would truly reflect the capabilities and workable compromises to be made by
each country. This is why it is fundamental to the future of the UNFCCC and the
fight against climate change to involve the control of organised civil society, both in
each country and globally, during the final INDC negotiations.
d. Monitor and stress that globally calculated INDCs should be consistent with the
goals for mitigation identified by climate science. It has been estimated that
developed countries must reduce their emissions by between 25% and 40%
relative to 1990 levels by the year 2020; a goal very far from the 5% set by the
Kyoto Protocol, and which will not be achieved by that date, given the global trends
of increased emissions and GHG concentrations observed in the last two decades.
This context poses a complex scenario for the upcoming negotiations, because it
reflects resistance of the countries with the highest emissions to take responsibility
for the goals defined by the scientific criteria. Consequently, this is one of the most
sensitive points that should be dealt with by the new global agreement in response
to climate change. Something that is absolutely essential is that, regardless of the
range of emissions reduction, the ultimate goal should be to avoid an increase
Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Reduction
8 Waldegrave Rd, Teddington, Middlesex, TW11 8HT (United Kingdom)
+44 (0)2089 777726 | [email protected]
www.gndr.org
above 1.5 °C in global temperature by the year 2100 to avoid devastating effects
on social and natural systems.
e. Propose initiatives aimed at reducing exposure and vulnerability to the current and
future climate in Latin America, and in developing countries in general. Without
denying the importance of the reduction of GHG emissions for the mitigation of
climate change, the fact is that what is needed is the fundamental transformation
of tens of thousands of vulnerable human settlements throughout Latin America.
Because of this, Latin American states must ensure adaptation becomes a central
component of the new climate agreement, and that it be accorded the same level
of priority as mitigation. There is no doubt that reality is already showing that the
increase in the impact of disasters is linked primarily to the objective conditions of
vulnerability and exposure to threats. By the same token, a scenario of accelerated
climate change further justifies an intervention in these areas, especially
considering that GHG emissions and climate change are in full flow.
The climate change negotiations are at a critical stage that could define the future
dynamics of climatic events. In the current scenario, an increase in climate threats can
be forecast that will increasingly affect any social and natural systems that are not
adapted to absorbing them without major traumatic effects.
Global civil society is faced with the challenge of going beyond the role of mere
observer in the negotiation process, and must effectively influence the contents of the
new global agreement on climate change. This necessarily involves a higher level of
knowledge, involvement, cohesion and dialogue with national governments and with
decision-making mechanisms of the UNFCCC.
A necessary step is the adoption of positions informed by scientific and traditional
knowledge, combined with an advocacy strategy toward governments and negotiators
from Latin American countries to form a common front in order to demand fundamental
objectives for reducing GHG emissions and, above all, adaptation based on the
reduction of exposure and vulnerability of the most disadvantaged human systems.
Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Reduction
8 Waldegrave Rd, Teddington, Middlesex, TW11 8HT (United Kingdom)
+44 (0)2089 777726 | [email protected]
www.gndr.org