Download Global Environment and Health

Global Environment and Health
WHO/PAHO Collaborating Centers
Regional Meeting, RTP, Oct. 2011
Jonathan Patz,
Professor
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
& Director, Global Health Institute
University of Wisconsin - Madison
OUTLINE
• Climate Change Risks
• Adaptation and Mitigation: Co-benefits and
unintended consequences
• Land use & global ecological change
“Health Map”
Sustainabilit
y
Commission
Barton &
Grant, 2006
Bara Shigri Glacier, Himachal Pradesh
Losing 30 meters per year
Courtesy: Diana Liverman
Changes in sea ice extent
Sept 1980
Siberia
The Arctic sea ice cover
Greenland
Alaska
September 1980: 7.8 million square kilometers
Courtesy: Don Perovich
Changes in sea ice extent
Sept 2007
Siberia
Greenland
Alaska
September 2007: 4.2 million square kilometers
Courtesy: Don Perovich
Changes in sea ice extent
Reduction from 1980 to 2007
Courtesy:
Don Perovich
Huge decrease in ice extent
IPCC 2001scenarios
to 2100 ----------------
HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Urban Heat Island
Effect
Air Pollution &
Aeroallergens
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Temperature Rise
Sea level Rise 2
Hydrologic Extremes
Vector-borne Diseases
1
Water-borne Diseases
1
2
3°C by yr. 2100
40 cm “ “
IPCC estimates
Water resources &
food supply
Heat Stress
Cardiorespiratory
failure
Respiratory diseases,
e.g., COPD & Asthma
Malaria
Dengue
Encephalitis
Hantavirus
Rift Valley Fever
Cholera
Cyclospora
Cryptosporidiosis
Campylobacter
Leptospirosis
Malnutrition
Diarrhea
Toxic Red Tides
Mental Health &
Patz, 1998
Environmental
Refugees
Forced Migration
Overcrowding
Infectious diseases
Human Conflicts
Heatwave morbidity -Milwaukee
Source:
Li, et al. 2011
50°
C
Future summers
warmer than
warmest on
record
Today’s one
billion at risk
for hunger
could double by
mid-century.
Battisi and Naylor, Science
2009
USA: Combined sewer
overflows (CSOs)
Courtesy: Kellogg Schwab
1.2 trillion gal of sewage & stormwater a year
discharged during combined sewer overflows
– would keep Niagara Falls roaring for 18 days
Center for Water & Health, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health
In Future, when it
rains…it will pour.
Globally Averaged
U.S. CCSP, 2008
Climate change Adaptation
and Mitigation
Co-benefits from mitigating GHGs:
opportunity for improving health
We can reduce:
800,000 deaths/year from
air pollution
1.9 million deaths from
physical inactivity
WHO, 2007
Olympics: Natural experiments
• Atlanta 1996:
Traffic was reduced by 23%
Ozone air pollution fell by 28%
Childhood Asthma dropped 42%
•
Beijing 2008:
China spent $17 Billion for a “Green
Olympics”
Nitrogen dioxide fell by 38%, Particulate
matter by 20%
Friedman et al. 2001; UNEP 2009
From transportation…to human health
Technology &
Activity Scenarios
What are the health
impacts of predicted
pollution levels?
What are the
associated emissions?
(CO2, NO2, SO2, VOCs,
PM, etc.).
How do these
emissions impact air
pollution?
Ozone
Grabow, et al (in press) 2011
WHAT IF, 20% fewer car trips, Midwest
USA?
500 lives saved per year
100,000s of illnesses avoided
And if 50% of these short trips were by
bicycle, the fitness benefit reaches 1,100
lives saved/yr.
Grabow et al. 2011
Mitigating climate
change could:
Co-benefits: fighting global
1)Enhance personal
warming is a great health
fitness;
opportunity
2) reduce air pollution;
3) reduce greenhouse
gases
Adaptation to climate change may have unintended
consequences;
Need for full Health Impact Assessment approach
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
• “Ecosystem
Services”
• “Natural capital”
FREE services from
nature
Identified Drivers of Disease Emergence
From the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Patz & Confalonieri, 2005
Deforestation & malaria risk,
Peruvian Amazon
Vittor et al.
2006
Health and the
Rio Conventions
Biological Diversity
•Nutritional changes
•Disease Regulation
• Medicinal products
• Water purification
•Climate induced
Biodiversity loss
•Land degradation,
deforestation
•
• Desertification hastened
by landcover change
•Deforestation effects on
climate
Human
health
Climate Change
•Extreme weather events
•Heat waves &air pollution
•Malnutrition
•Water- & Food-borne disease
• Vector-borne diseases
•Water scarcity and safety
•Agro-ecosystem productivity
•Food scarcity
•Droughts
Desertification
•Precipitation changes leading to drought
Source: Corvalan,
WHO, 2006
Conclusion
• Global climate and ecological change
pose significant risks to health
• Risks, Adaptation and Mitigation Policies
should be studied together
• “Health in all Policies” approach required