Download Risk and Infrastructure Science Center (RISC)

Argonne National Laboratory
Argonne Climate Change Capabilities
NEMA – Preparedness Committee Briefing
October 10, 2014
Risk and Infrastructure Science Center (RISC):
Core Research Areas
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Infrastructure Science: Conduct research and analysis to enhance infrastructure resilience and
reduce the risk of disruption or destruction from climate change, natural hazards, accidents, or
security threats. Inform the resilient design of future cyber and physical infrastructure to build
assets, systems, and networks that are capable of withstanding future threats.
Cyber Analysis and Operations: Provide operations, subject matter experts, and research
support for the development and implementation of advanced cybersecurity solutions. Conduct
focused analysis of the intersection of cyber and physical risks.
Threat Analysis: Conduct near-real-time, all-source analysis by fusing intelligence with complex
datasets and multidisciplinary expertise. Deliver highly sophisticated, scientific analysis through
actionable products, portals, and tools.
Emergency Preparedness: Develop and apply methodologies and technologies to assist
emergency managers, planners, and responders in preparing for, responding to, and recovering
from manmade or natural disasters.
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Center for Integrated Resiliency Analyses (CIRA)
Multidiscipline Virtual Center Integrating
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Climate and Physical Processes Modeling: Changes in climate may greatly affect infrastructure
and social systems. CIRA will use computational models and tools designed to shed light on these
complex physical processes and inform mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Infrastructure Assessment: To manage risks to infrastructure systems, CIRA draws on advanced
modeling and simulation technologies and subject matter experts in diverse systems including
power, water, transportation, and telecommunications to enhance climate change resilience.
Social Science Modeling: Social dynamics play a role in ecological and economic topics such as
climate change, resource scarcity, and epidemics. CIRA will exploit Argonne’s integrated social
science modeling capabilities to improve understanding of how social factors influence a
community’s resiliency.
High-Performance Computer Systems Modeling: Modeling and simulation look at ways to
analyze and understand interactions and feedback mechanisms between societal and physical
processes. CIRA will use Argonne’s experience in modeling, simulation, and visualization to
perform computational experiments for both physical and social systems.
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The challenge
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The President’s Climate Action Plan (2013) addressed the need for a
collaborative effort to combat the ongoing impacts of climate change that are
becoming more prevalent; the plan directly addressed the need for increased
resilience of buildings and infrastructure.
Barriers to climate change adaptation consistently identified by State, local,
and private-sector officials:
• Lack of local-level modeling on changes to temperature and precipitation,
• Lack of high-resolution climate scenario data needed to justify starting adaptation
projects, and
• Lack of a local framework for adaptation planning.
Association of Climate Change Officers, Climate Adaptation: A Survey of Concerns Facing Organizations,
http://www.accoonline.org/downloads/ACCO-Report-AdaptationSurvey-March2013.pdf
Downscaled climate models, coupled with infrastructure modeling and
analysis, can inform planning decisions that will result in more resilient
infrastructure being designed and built for the future.
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Argonne is utilizing its supercomputer to generate locallevel climate data
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Climate Modeling
– Argonne is downscaling climate information (down to a 12-km community level)
derived from large-scale atmospheric models (typically showing broad State or even
multi-State-scale data) for DHS and DOD.
– Model uses the Mira supercomputer at Argonne, given process models and statistical
distributions that are computationally demanding.
Average Maximum Daily Temp. in Base Year (1995–2005)
Average Maximum Daily Temp. in 2045–2054 Period
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Argonne is using downscaled climate data to drive
infrastructure impact models
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Infrastructure models (e.g., EPfast [electric], Ngfast [natural gas], Polfast
[petroleum], Restore©, and transportation system) coupled to climate models to
assess climate hazards
Identifies downstream impacts generated by the disruption of infrastructure
systems (e.g., from storm surge, drought, heat wave)
For example, Argonne is using the EPfast model to investigate the impacts of
midcentury increased ambient temperature on Maine’s electric grid:
– Determine impacts on the capacity of power plants, transmission lines, and
transformers, as well as growth in demand.
– Determine implications on overall grid performance via load flow simulation.
– A temperature change of 3–5°C is projected to occur in inland Maine.
– The temperature change is expected to influence operational characteristics
of power plants and transmission lines, as well as level of demand.
Current heat gain + Solar heat
gain = Radiative heat loss +
Convective heat loss
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Impact model details: EPfast
 Linear, steady-state model provides a
quick estimate of impacts on the immediate and
downstream substations due to:
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Uncontrolled islanding
Single or multiple transmission line outages
Single or multiple substation outages
Plant siting and line reinforcement studies
 Can be used to assess various climate change
hazards:
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Storm surge impacts on critical nodes
Heat waves
 Graphical and tabular HTML – formatted outputs
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Amount of load reduction per substation
Number and size of island grids formed
 Applications
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FEMA Region V – Improvised Nuclear Device Analysis
FEMA-DOE New Madrid Seismic Zone Study
DHS Regional Resiliency Assessment Program
Bureau of Land Management Solar Energy Zone
Transmission Study
Argonne is assessing the resilience of communities to
climate hazards
 Regional Resilience Assessment Program
(RRAP)
– Combines tools to assess the resilience of a
given urban area, supply chain, or region
– Utilizes a cross-disciplinary approach (e.g.,
urban planners, climate scientists,
infrastructure system engineers)
– Previous studies have focused on major cities,
multi-State infrastructure systems, agricultural
systems, and transportation systems
– To date, 45 projects have been conducted
across the country; many of these considered
the impacts of climate change hazards
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What we have learned about the state of climate change
preparedness
 Critical nodes exist in most sectors that already are or could be affected by
climate change
 Barriers to climate change adaptation can be found at the Federal, State, and
local levels
– Policy and regulations
– Lack of downscaled data informing design standards and guidance
 Infrastructure planning processes lack climate change adaptation
considerations
 Lack of resources
– Complexity of climate change hazards and adaptation planning typically requires
outside contracting and expertise
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Regional Climate System Assessment Framework
For more information, please contact:
Duane Verner
Risk and Infrastructure Science Center
Global Security Sciences Division
Argonne National Laboratory
919-368-4908
[email protected]
Dave Brannegan
Director
Risk and Infrastructure Science Center
Global Security Sciences Division
Argonne National Laboratory
630-252-0932
[email protected]
John Hummel
Director
Center for Integrated Resiliency Analyses
Global Security Sciences Division
Argonne National Laboratory
630-252-7189
[email protected]
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