Download AP Statistics - YES Prep Brays Oaks Summer Homework 2016

Part 1: Answer the following questions in complete sentences and be ready for a test the first week of class.
Chapter 1: What is the point?
One important statistical practice is sampling. Explain the process of sampling and give an example that
illustrates the process.
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Chapter 2: Descriptive Statistics: Who was the best baseball player of all time?
A descriptive statistic is a summary statistic that is very helpful in simplifying things. It’s easy to understand
but is limited in what it can tell us.
a) Give an example of a descriptive statistic. Explain the pros and cons of using the doing analysis.
b) Descriptive statistics can be misleading. Describe how this is true in terms of mean and median.
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Chapter 3: Deceptive Description: He’s got a great personality.
a) The use of statistics to describe complex phenomena is not exact. There is a difference between “precision”
and “accuracy”. These words are not interchangeable. Please explain the difference and give an example of
how this difference can matter.
b) Give an example of how using different units of analysis can present seemingly contradictory views.
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Chapter 4: Correlation: How does Netflix know what movies I like?
Correlation measures the degree to which two phenomena are related to each other. It is a number between 1 and 1 and it has no units attached to it. Correlation does not imply causation. Explain this statement and give
an example that illustrates this concept.
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Chapter 5: Basic Probability: Don’t buy the extended warranty.
Probability is the study of events and outcomes involving an element of uncertainty. Probability can help
determine in advance that some outcomes are more likely than others. It can also help tell us after the fact
what likely did happen. Probability gives us tools for dealing with life’s uncertainties. Select one of the
following statements and explain the event in terms of probability:
a) You shouldn’t play the lottery.
b) You should invest in the stock market if you have a long investment horizon.
c) You should buy insurance for somethings, but not for others.
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Chapter 5.5: The Monty Hall Problem.
The “Monty Hall problem” is a famous probability-related conundrum faced by participants on the game show
Let’s Make a Deal. Explain why you should switch doors.
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Chapter 6: Problems with Probability: How overconfident math geeks nearly destroyed the global financial
system.
a) The underlying risks associated with financial markets are not as predictable as a coin flip or a blind taste
test. Explain this statement in the context of the Value at Risk model (VaR).
b) Give an example of problems that can happen when you either assume events are independent when they
are not or not understanding when events are independent.
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Chapter 7: The Importance of Data: Garbage in, garbage out.
Data deserves respect. You need good data. No amount of fancy analysis can make up for fundamentally flawed data.
One way to get data is from sampling. We need our sample data to be representative of some larger group or
population. Some of the most egregious statistical mistakes involve lying with data; the statistical analysis is fine, but the
data on which the calculations are performed are bogus or inappropriate. Hence the phrase garbage in, garbage out.
Bias can be a contributing factor of bogus data. List a type of bias and explain how it affected the statistical results.
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Chapter 8: The Central Limit Theorem: The Lebron James of statistics.
The Central Limit Theorem is the “power source” for many of the statistical activities that involve using a sample to
make inferences about a large population. The core principle underlying the central limit theorem is that a large,
properly drawn sample, will resemble the population from which it is drawn. Obviously, there will be variations from
sample to sample, but the probability that a sample will deviate massively from the underlying population is very low.
Give an example of how the central limit theorem was applied.
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Chapter 9) Inference: Why my statistics professor thought I might have cheated.
The power of statistical inference derives from observing some pattern or outcome and then using probability to
determine the most likely explanation for that outcome. Statistics cannot prove anything with certainty. Give an
example of inference that depicts both its strengths and weaknesses.
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Chapter 10: Polling: How we know that 64% of Americans support the death penalty (a sampling error
of ± 3 %).
The power of polling stems from the same source as the sampling examples: the central limit theorem. If we take a
large, representative sample, we can reasonably assume that our sample will look a lot like the population from which it
is drawn. The book listed key methodological questions that you should ask when conducting a poll, or when reviewing
the work of others. Select one of the questions and explain its importance.
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Chapter 11: Regression Analysis: The Miracle elixir.
Regression analysis is the statistical tool that allows us to quantify the relationship between a particular variable and an
outcome that we care about while controlling for other factors. In other words, it allows us to unravel complex
relationships in which multiple factors affect some outcome that we care about. Give an example of regression analysis.
State what the explanatory and dependent variables are.
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Chapter 12) Common Regression Mistakes: The mandatory warning label.
Regression analysis provides precise answers to complicated questions. These answers may or may not be accurate. In
the wrong hands, regression analysis will yield results that are misleading or just plain wrong. Give an example that
illustrates a potential regression pitfall and what caused it.
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Chapter 13) Program Evaluation: Will going to Harvard change your life?
Program evaluation is the process by which we seek to measure the causal effect of some intervention. The intervention
that we care about is typically called the “treatment”. A treatment can be a literal treatment, as in some kind of medical
intervention, or it can be something like attending college or receiving job training. Program evaluation offers a set of
tools for isolating the treatment effect when cause and effect are otherwise elusive. The book talks about common
approaches for isolating a treatment effect. Select one of the approaches and explain how it is effective in isolating a
treatment effect.
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Part 2 The Essay: Five questions that statistics can help answer.
The book posed five questions that statistics can help answer. Select one of the following questions and explain how
statistics can help answer it.
Question 1: What is the future of football?
Question 2: What if anything is causing the dramatic rise in autism?
Question 3: How can we identify and reward good teachers and schools?
Question 4: What are the best tools for fighting global poverty?
Question 5: Who gets to know what about you?
Essay must be: 2 pages, typed and double spaced.