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IDC's Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT
Markets and Historical Market Values and
Exchange Rates, Version 1, 2017
Stephen Minton
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
IDC Assumption
Impact
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
Macroeconomics
Economy
Fiscal stimulus
packages
The global economy has generally performed better than
expected in the past 6 months. The US shrugged off its
election surprise and continued its positive momentum;
Europe shrugged off the turmoil around Brexit; and China
continued to shrug off its harshest economic critics. On the
other hand, Brexit could exert more downwards pressure
on Europe once the UK actually begins its exit process;
many economists are now forecasting a significant
slowdown in China in 2018 which will impact other Asian
countries and emerging markets; and some are even
forecasting a US recession in 2019. These lingering
uncertainties will continue to dampen business confidence
to a degree.
High. A down economy affects business and consumer
confidence, the availability of credit and private
investment, and internal funding. A global recession
would cause businesses to delay IT upgrades and some
new projects; a rising economy does the opposite. A
crisis (perhaps triggered by a downturn in China) could
create a chain of events that would drive tech spending
much lower in the near term.
Neutral
Numerous governments will use stimulus measures to
avert economic downturns in 2017, responding to
headwinds. In the US, a program of infrastructure
investment will help to boost short-term growth, while
various stimulus measures are also on the cards in
Japan, China, Europe and some emerging markets.
Even Greece, still dependent on bail-out funds, is trying
to enact minor stimulus measures. Austerity has caused
a spike in unhappiness and a rise in populism, and wary
governments are now more willing to loosen purse
strings after the shock election results of 2016.
Moderate. Small-scale stimulus measures tend to have a
moderate impact on demand for ICT, particularly when
focused on narrow sectors of the economy. Large-scale
measures of the type seen after the financial crisis can
have a more pronounced impact, but we currently
assume that GDP forecasts have already accounted for
the most likely legislation.
Neutral
Source: IDC, March 2017
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2
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
Crisis duration/
potential relapse
A sense that the global economy is teetering on the edge
of another crisis has increased since a year ago, thanks
in no small part to political uprisings which have seen
shock election and referendum results in the US, UK and
Italy. The worst-case scenario is probably a crisis in
China, beyond the anticipated slowdown, as many
countries are now heavily dependent on China for trade.
The march of EU-skepticism through European elections
would also be a red flag for stability, as would any severe
protectionist measures enacted by the US or UK.
High. A crisis in economic confidence can quickly shake
IT spending to the core. Businesses would move quickly
to cut IT budgets in order to ride out a recession, with
particularly strong implications for capital spending on
devices and infrastructure.
Neutral
Oil prices
The crash in oil prices was a double-edged sword for the
global economy, representing good news for energy
importers and bad news for exporters. A rally in prices
was long overdue, and probably needed for the stability
of the global economy. Even most though consumers
and businesses benefit from cheap oil, low prices are
generally a sign of weakness and can contribute to
generalized deflation. Output agreements between
OPEC members could ensure greater price stability in
2017, but oversupply is still a problem, and a potential
slowdown in China next year would exacerbate this.
Moderate. While lower oil prices can help spur lagging
consumer spending, higher prices signal that demand is
rising. A sustained period of low prices can ultimately
damage economic confidence and cause recession in
energy-exporting countries. Stability is key.
Neutral
Macroeconomics
Source: IDC, March 2017
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3
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
Policy
There is now a greater level of uncertainty than usual
around US policy, after the surprise election result,
though so far there have been no radical disruptions to
trade or investment. We assume that business-friendly
policies will help to sustain growth in the next 12 months,
mitigating the headwind of rising interest rates, and that
any protectionist measures will represent small-scale
political gestures. Economic policy is more predictable
and unchanged elsewhere, although elections in Europe
could introduce new wild cards during 2017.
Moderate. Policy measures can drive IT spending by
stimulating economic growth and business confidence.
On the other hand, policy measures can also escalate
tensions between trading partners and cause economic
instability. Economic policy has been relatively
harmonious for the past decade, but the rise of populist
political parties in the West is introducing greater
uncertainty.
Neutral
Profits
Corporate profits were mixed in 2016, heavily impacted
by inflation and exchange rates in many countries. While
underlying economic growth has been relatively stable so
far, profitability has been more unpredictable as a result.
Increasing political focus on corporate taxation in Europe
could have an adverse impact on profits, but tax cuts in
the US could boost profits in the near term. We assume
that profits will be tepid by some historical standards, but
relatively stable.
Moderate. If profits are more subdued than expected,
this can delay capital spending and new projects; a rise
in profits can similarly stimulate IT spending. However,
some IT markets are less attached to overall profits than
in the past because of mature product cycles and the
growth of technology solutions that are directly targeted
at boosting profitability (e.g., virtualization and cloud).
Neutral
Geopolitics
The geopolitical environment remains fluid but mostly
localized, with regional crises including the surge in
migrants to Western Europe and the conflict in Syria.
These regional wild cards may exert some pressure on
business confidence in the near term, but we don’t
currently make any assumptions about a geopolitical
event on a global scale.
Moderate. The most significant geopolitical events of
2016 have so far had a regional rather than a global
impact. It is possible for larger geopolitical events (e.g.,
war or migration crisis) to have a more drastic impact on
business and consumer spending, thus destabilizing the
global economy, but we generally avoid assumptions of
this nature until specific events occur.
Neutral
Macroeconomics
Source: IDC, March 2017
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4
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
Inflation
The crash in oil and commodity prices last year
contributed to falling inflation rates, leading to concerns
that this may trigger a second-round impact on other
sectors and generalized deflation in mature economies.
While deflationary pressures seem to have eased in the
US, the government is still battling deflation in Japan. We
assume that inflation will stabilize in 2017, and that
inflationary headwinds will moderate in emerging
markets, but Brexit could lead to inflationary pressures in
the UK.
Moderate. Low inflation keeps interest rates low and
leads to more capital spending, including spending on
ICT. However, deflation can discourage spending as
buyers wait for prices to fall. High inflation can dampen
business and consumer confidence.
Neutral
Housing demand
Housing demand has remained relatively stable, with
some countries seeing a moderate rise in house prices.
In a downside scenario, stock market volatility or a
downturn in China could inhibit demand in the next 12
months. Macroeconomic forces will continue to impact
housing markets on a country-by-country basis. For
example, Brexit could impact house prices in the UK.
Moderate. While the impact on IT spending is indirect,
housing demand and real estate investment are crucial to
overall economic stability and consumer confidence. A
crash in the housing market can trigger the kind of
economic downturn that quickly causes a slowdown in
tech spending.
Neutral
Unemployment/
job creation
Unemployment should remain stable or gradually decline
in countries where economic growth continues its current
trajectory of steady, moderate expansion. The
anticipated slowdown in China will lead to a moderate
increase in unemployment, but we assume this will be
contained by government policy measures and
investment as needed, thus averting any greater crisis or
social dislocation. Brexit could result in significant UK job
losses if the government fails to negotiate a strong trade
agreement with the EU, but this is still a downside rather
than a baseline assumption.
High. More employment drives more need for ICT
spending and is a lagging indicator of economic
recovery; job creation is usually accompanied by a
willingness to invest in other areas. Job creation also has
a direct impact on IT spending as companies invest in IT
to support new workers. However, IT spending is also
acting as a substitution for labor costs, weakening the
correlation.
Accelerator
Macroeconomics
Source: IDC, March 2017
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5
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
Exchange rates
Exchange rates have remained volatile, and will ebb and
flow with economic and political indicators such as
interest rate increases and elections. Amidst the volatility,
investors are likely to continue retreating into safe
havens whenever the economic outlook appears
uncertain. We assume this volatility will continue in 2017,
with a negative impact on business visibility.
Moderate. A stable or steadily falling currency makes it
easier for vendors to manage supply lines and stabilizes
the prices of imports and exports. A weaker domestic
currency can boost international firms, which report a
positive impact on foreign earnings. A weaker domestic
currency can also, however, raise the cost of imports. If
prices for essential imports go up, this can flip an
economy into a negative spiral.
Inhibitor
Vertical industries
The main drag on IT spending in recent years has been
from the public sector, but we assume that government
spending will gradually improve in many countries during
2017. More dynamic industries include healthcare, which
continues its pace of modernization to deal with aging
populations in mature economies and with legislative
changes, and the services sector. Manufacturing firms
are investing to improve their global competitiveness,
while telecom operators are engaged in customer
retention efforts. Industry-specific solutions will remain a
major driver for IT spending.
High. A downturn in major contributors to IT revenue
(e.g., the financial services sector) can have a major
impact on IT spending. Momentum in vertical sectors
(e.g., healthcare) can drive overall IT spending. Industryspecific solutions are increasingly a major contributor to
growth.
Accelerator
Macroeconomics
Source: IDC, March 2017
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6
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
We don't predict a future wild card (which by definition is
an unpredictable event), but the election of President
Donald Trump has probably increased the likelihood of
wild cards in 2017. In general, the rise of populism in the
US and Europe means that economic wild cards are a
more clear and present danger than a year ago. Conflict
in the Middle East, or Korea, a 'hard landing' in China
and tensions between Russia and the west are other
potential flashpoints.
High. Wild-card events such as military conflicts or a
trade war have the potential to significantly impact global
growth.
Neutral
The shift of spending from the 2nd Platform (client/server
environments) to the dispersed 3rd Platform
(cloud/mobile/big data/social) continues apace. The 3rd
Platform already represents a majority of overall ICT
spending, and the gap will increase over the forecast
period as cloud and mobile in particular become the
dominant platforms and delivery methods.
High. The shift to 3rd Platform solutions including cloud,
mobile and big data is driving a long tail of IT spending
and new projects across many organizations, and
helping to drive the ongoing increase in LOB participation
in the IT decision-making cycle.
Accelerator
Macroeconomics
Wild cards
Global megatrends
Third Platform
Source: IDC, March 2017
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7
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
Innovation
Accelerators
Innovation accelerators will continue to outpace
traditional IT spending categories, with strong growth and
adoption for solutions around Cognitive AI, AR/VR and
other technologies. End users will increasingly devote
more of their IT budgets towards new platforms which
offer differentiation and rapid gains in productivity or
competitiveness. Some of these technologies are still at
an early stage of evolution, but will be more important
over the long term as drivers for project-based spending.
Moderate. Some new technologies are relatively small
today, which limits their impact on overall IT spending;
nevertheless, they drive investment in new projects and
planning cycles, and can be a central component of
digital transformation initiatives.
Accelerator
Cloud
IDC assumes that cloud services spending will continue
to grow at double-digit rates for the next few years,
gradually accounting for a larger proportion of all IT
spending. In the short term and the medium term, this
may have a negative impact on some vendors, enabling
end users to lower their overall spending on certain
solutions. However, in the long term, we believe that
cloud will have a positive overall impact on industry
growth as more users adopt more advanced computing
solutions at a faster rate. Meanwhile, cloud service
providers will become an increasingly important customer
segment for hardware vendors.
High. The key advantage to cloud services should be the
ability of IT organizations to shift IT resources from
maintenance to new initiatives. This in turn could lead to
new business revenue and competitiveness as well as
create new opportunities for IT vendors in SMB and
emerging markets. The benefits will be partly offset by
cannibalization, resulting in shorter service
engagements, price model disruption and some
hardware commoditization. A stronger economy would
see most organizations shift resources to new IT
development and adoption areas in the long term. We
see cloud adoption as an IT spending driver overall, but
the impact will vary by sector.
Accelerator
Global megatrends
Source: IDC, March 2017
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8
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
IDC Assumption
Impact
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
Global megatrends
Internet of Things
Overall IoT spending will continue to expand at a doubledigit rate, with investments led by the manufacturing and
transport industries. An increasing focus on IoT analytics
will enable end users to unlock the value of their IoT
data, helping to underpin continued investments
throughout the forecast period.
Convergence
Convergence is a complex phenomenon working at
many levels: convergence of the telephone network and
the Internet, communications and IT technologies,
consumer and enterprise technologies, and even
storage, routing, and processing in the datacenter. Of
these, perhaps the most overarching is the convergence
of voice, video, and data communications. This
convergence is a permanent phenomenon and will pick
up pace as the decade wears on. The overlap will be
significant.
High. The addition of billions of devices to the network
edge will drive the need for more enterprise systems to
deploy, manage, and make use of these devices. It will
also shift the prevailing traffic from the center of the
network outward to edge inward, which will affect
computing and communications architectures. Most
importantly, it will also deliver strong ROI to customers
through data analytics tools.
Accelerator
Accelerator
Moderate. Convergence will drive new competitive
dynamics, offer new applications and functions to
customers, and strain the legal and regulatory systems. It
will also drive increased ICT spending.
Source: IDC, March 2017
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9
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
IDC Assumption
Impact
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
Global megatrends
Consumerization
The bring-your-own-device (BYOD) trend has continued
to impact IT planning. With IT departments struggling to
keep up with the pace of mobile device and web service
innovation, users have continued to find ways to increase
productivity. Some enterprises are adopting new policies
that provide users with greater autonomy in their choice
of devices while protecting the integrity of corporate data.
There may also be some retreat from BYOD in the next
few years, as mobile devices are increasingly customized
to meet the needs of enterprise customers.
Green IT
Green IT refers to a basket of technologies and practices
designed to minimize power costs, carbon output, and
hazardous waste. The major impact of green IT will be on
technology choices based on low power, more attention
to asset disposal, and some change in vendor selection.
Depending on the country, voluntary adherence to green
IT principles could become law. The search for
sustainability in areas outside IT will lead to opportunity
for IT vendors. However, the weak economy has shifted
some attention away from green IT in the near term, in
many cases because of vendors' inability to fund new
projects.
High. Consumerization is a driver for IT spending because
new devices and services are adopted at a faster rate by
individual users than centralized IT departments. It even
creates an indirect round of spending as some enterprises
invest in software tools to either secure corporate data or
police the network. On the downside, it could draw
resources away from other IT projects if businesses invest
too heavily in trying to control the productivity of their
employees.
Low. The adoption of green IT products and practices
should drive some new spending. However, initiating new
projects with short-term costs for long-term gain is more
difficult in a weak economy, and as energy prices have
fallen, this has stalled momentum.
Accelerator
Neutral
Source: IDC, March 2017
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10
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
The aging of the workforce in the developed world and
the growth of the workforce in lower-cost geographies will
affect both the supply of and the demand for IT. These
may be long-term trends, but they are already manifest in
the globalization of the workforce and the slow ICT
market growth in places such as Western Europe. The
center of ICT supply will migrate toward Asia and Eastern
Europe but, in general, will also diversify. IDC also
expects renewed FDI and VC funding for emerging
markets such as China and India. ICT consumption will
migrate to large-population geographies as the center of
gravity for IT shifts from the PC to the mobile phone.
Moderate. Businesses will continue to shift their sourcing
of labor and services quickly in reaction to demographic
and economic trends. Similarly, demographics will
continue to drive large opportunities in emerging
markets, which will account for a larger proportion of
overall IT spending.
Neutral
IT employment, now at more than 35 million, continues to
grow by a factor of 1.3 worldwide. This is a constraint in
an industry growing by a factor of 1.1 in terms of
spending but by more than 2 by devices managed, 5 by
information created, and 8 by networked interactions
between customers. IDC views this as a long-term
structural constraint. The economic slowdown of recent
years has tightened that constraint.
Moderate. The availability and skill level of talent have a
direct impact on markets as diverse as network security
and outsourcing. The availability may affect some
markets or adoption rates, such as the development of
SOA, but in general, there will be other more immediate
gating factors. In the long run, the optimization of the
slow-growth labor pool argues for cloud computing.
Inhibitor
Global megatrends
Demographics
Labor supply
IT talent
Source: IDC, March 2017
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11
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
The swing to emerging geographies is evident. The
number of scientists and engineers in the United States
and Western Europe is falling compared with the number
of scientists and engineers in China and India, while
growth in the number of IT-related employees in those
countries is three times the world average. Recent
volatility in emerging markets may disrupt this pattern in
the short term, but we expect it to continue in the medium
term and long term.
Low. The migration will increase the overhead costs of
finding, recruiting, and managing talent from global pools.
It should also, however, lower costs and may even lead
to more innovation. In a globalized economy, the impact
on IT spending should be limited, except in terms of its
distribution.
Neutral
Venture capital
Venture capital has been relatively strong in the past 12
months across technology markets, even though
investors have grown more selective. There is a growing
perception that some tech start-ups are overvalued, but
that new technologies like AR/VR and Cognitive AI offer
potential huge returns and upside for new ventures and
technologies.
Low. Venture capital can drive IT spending in the long
term, leading to the creation of new start-up technologies
and innovation that spurs demand. The short-term impact
on overall IT spending, however, is small. Only when
new products and services go mainstream at a later
stage of the business cycle do they begin to affect the
overall market.
Neutral
Stocks
Some investors believe the "Trump honeymoon" is
coming to an end, and expect more volatility in markets
over the remainder of 2017. Rising interest rates a
growing focus on the potential long-term consequences
of events such as Brexit or protectionism could acts as a
headwind. We assume there will be ups and downs in a
year likely to be characterized by speculation.
High. Rising stock prices increase business confidence;
falling prices can drive lower economic expectations. A
major stock market meltdown can have major
implications for IT spending in the short term. On the
other hand, short-term volatility in stock markets is a
weak indicator of IT spending. In China, stock market
weakness has a limited impact on consumers and the
broader economy.
Neutral
Labor supply
Distribution of talent
Capitalization
Source: IDC, March 2017
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12
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
IDC Assumption
Impact
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
Market
characteristics
Hardware
Capital spending was weaker in 2016, for a combination High. Hardware spending, about 40% of total IT
of reasons including product cycles and the shift to cloud. spending, also drives downstream spending in software
The growth of software-defined solutions will also have
and services.
an increasing impact on hardware revenues in the next
few years. However, we assume that enterprise and
cloud investment in infrastructure will rebound in
2017/2018, and that commercial tablet sales will lift the
devices category. This near term recovery will help drive
other projects.
Neutral
Software
Software spending has rebounded strongly over the past
2-3 years. There is some evidence that organizations are
investing in software as a means of labor substitution,
even when economic conditions worsen, but the
movement of much software spend to the cloud will
continue to be disruptive. The growth of software-defined
consumption may see more spending transferred from
hardware to software, generating upside for software
vendors.
Moderate. Software spending, about 20% of total IT
spending, can drive spending in hardware and IT and in
business services. However, as more of this spending
moves to the cloud, the impact on traditional IT spending
areas will be reduced.
Accelerator
Services
Services markets have remained stable, but growth is
still tepid overall by historical standards as the market
remains split between slow-growth 2nd Platform markets
like traditional outsourcing and high-growth services
opportunities related to 3rd Platform and Innovation
Accelerator solutions. Cloud will continue to cannibalize
from some traditional services revenue, while driving
growth in new markets.
Moderate. IT services spending and availability can
affect the rate of overall solution adoption as well as the
migration to new platforms such as cloud, but services
are generally a lagging indicator for overall IT spending
and reflect the strength of hardware and software
investments. In emerging markets, however, more
adoption of professional services is a key driver for
enabling end users to adopt more advanced platforms.
Neutral
Source: IDC, March 2017
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13
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
Telecom
With the smartphone boom coming towards an end,
service providers will turn their attention to 5G and its
potential to drive new service revenues. This will ensure
that investment in telecom equipment remains stable, in
an industry which remains highly competitive. The longterm shift to mobile services will continue.
Moderate. The adoption of new telecom services can
drive IT spending, such as those related to mobile
broadband and devices. Faster network speeds can also
drive the adoption of hardware, software, and services.
Neutral
Channels
Economic volatility has so far had a lesser effect on
channel players than one might have expected, but there
are signs of consolidation and a possible increase in
M&A activity. IDC does not currently expect wholesale
pruning of ecosystems by IT vendors, even in the event
of another downturn in the economy.
Low. Vendors do not have a good track record dealing
logically with channel partners during sudden downturns,
and disruption has impacted IT delivery and billings in the
past. However, the recent financial crisis provided some
evidence that these problems are now less severe than
in the past.
Neutral
Supply chain
We expect a strong supply chain to largely meet demand
in 2017. Oversupply is a more likely challenge than
undersupply, if the economy weakens.
Moderate. A shortage of components can raise prices,
limiting the ability of vendors to maintain or lower prices
and consequently having a negative impact on demand.
Market
characteristics
Accelerator
Source: IDC, March 2017
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14
IDC Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the ICT Markets in
2017 and Beyond
Mar-17
Market Force
Accelerator/
Inhibitor/
Neutral
IDC Assumption
Impact
Buying sentiment
Buying sentiment has fluctuated in recent months, in line
with stock markets and macroeconomic events/risk
factors. In the past, CIOs have consistently under
forecast their own IT spending, reflecting a persistent air
of caution and risk aversion. If the economy remains
stable, spending will likely outpace buyer sentiment polls.
If the economy enters another downturn, buyer
confidence would likely plunge.
High. Buyer sentiment obviously has a major direct
impact on IT spending. Confidence can be volatile from
month to month, however, and CIOs have often
misjudged their own IT spending. The decentralization of
IT budgets makes it more difficult to rely on individual
polls of buyer intent in order to accurately judge
sentiment. Underlying sentiment is usually higher than
surveys indicate.
Neutral
Saturation
The concept of overall saturation is a tricky one in the
context of ICT. Markets that seem saturated (e.g., PC
shipments in the United States) can be "unsaturated" by
new price thresholds or form factors (e.g., tablets) that
spur faster replacement or bring new users to the market.
Thus IDC generally assumes that while all markets have
a fixed number of potential adopters (people or
companies), there is usually a price, feature, or solution
that can drive additional spending. Nevertheless,
increased saturation is driving slower growth rates in the
near term for some individual markets including
smartphones and can also erode prices.
Moderate. Market saturation does lead to maturity, price
declines, and slowing growth, but we believe that this can
be resolved by innovation that spurs new IT spending
overall. Nevertheless, for individual market segments, the
impact can be more significant.
Neutral
Consumption
Source: IDC, March 2017
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15
Historical Market Values and Exchange Rates




Historical market values presented here are as published in prior IDC documents based on the market taxonomies
and current U.S. dollar exchange rates existing at the time the data was originally published. For markets other
than the United States, these as-published values are therefore based on a different exchange rate each year.
Because many individual countries contribute to regional totals, it is difficult to give precise differences between
current and constant currency values in this document. However, the scale of the difference can be understood
from the movement of the U.S. dollar against major regional currencies. Customers should consider multiplying
regional historical market values for each year by the change in value of the U.S. dollar against representative
currencies in the region as shown in the following table. This will provide a better approximation of local market
growth. For example, to restate 2014 eurozone values into 2015 dollars, one would adjust the 2014 value
downward by 16% (because the dollar strengthened against the euro between 2014 and 2015).
With the transition to Q1 forecast periods in the April-June timeframe, the base year for constant currency
forecasts is advanced forward. For example, during this April-June timeframe in 2017, IDC will begin to use 2016
annual exchange rates as the baseline measurements instead of 2015 annual exchange rates.
Please refer to IDC’s regional research studies containing historical forecasts for multiple countries for more
accurate regional growth in local currencies. Note that this discussion applies only to historical values prior to
2015. 2015 and all future years are forecast at constant currency based on 2015 annual, average exchange rates.
Exchange Rates, 2008–2016 (%)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Euro
76
80
84
80
86
83
83
100
100
Pound
74
87
87
84
85
86
82
88
100
Yen
95
86
81
73
73
90
97
111
100
Canadian dollar
80
86
78
75
75
78
83
96
100
Mexico peso
60
72
68
67
70
68
71
85
100
Brazilian real
53
58
51
48
56
62
67
95
100
Note: To restate prior-year U.S. dollars, multiply historical market values by the percentage indicated in the table.
Source: IDC, March 2017
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