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Calamitous Climate Change R. Clapp EH780 March 23, 2009 Weather VS Climate • Weather is the temporary, day-to-day, state of the atmosphere anywhere on the Earth’s surface • Climate is the long-term, prevailing pattern of weather in any given place. What is Global Warming? Some solar radiation is reflected by Earth and the atmosphere. Most radiation is absorbed by the Earth’s surface and warms it. Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and reemitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules. The effect of this is to warm the Earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere. Infrared radiation is emitted by the Earth’s surface Global Air Temperature Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and U.S. EPA The Warming Trend Has Already Taken Hold A few examples: • Oceans, which can store large amounts of heat, have warmed since 1950. • Antarctic and Greenland ice shelves have been eroding. • Alaskan tundra is thawing. “The Earth’s average temperature has gone up between 0.5 and 1 degree Fahrenheit over the past 100 years.” - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “The balance of evidence suggests that there is discernible human influence on global climate.” - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CO2 Concentration, Last 1,000 Years -Derived from ice-core measurements (South Pole) and direct observation (Mauna Loa, Hawaii) Source: Based on IPCC (1994) Correlation Between CO2 Concentrations And Temperature The Warming Trends The 20th century was the warmest of the last 6 centuries. 2005 was tied with 1998 (El Nino year) as the warmest year on record. Impacts of Climate Change The IPCC predicts: • Higher temperatures: 2 to 11 °F rise by 2100. • Rising sea-levels: 6 to 38-inch increase by 2100, although more catastrophic increases possible. •Greenland glacial erosion; albedo reduction • More precipitation extremes (storms and droughts). Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health Altered Food and crop productivity Climate affect: Temperature Precipitation Sea level rise Regional malnutrition and hunger Extreme weather events Deaths, injuries and psychological disorders Thermal extremes Altered rates of heat- and cold-related illness and death Worsened air pollution Effects on vectors and infective parasites Acute and chronic respiratory disorders Infectious diseases, waterborne diseases HURRICANE MITCH HURRICANE MITCH 1998 SUMMER 2003 FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, SPAIN, PORTUGAL 20-30 000 deaths Source: NASA 2003 Summer Temperatures 10oC (18oF) >30year average Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases Source World Health Organization, 1996 Vector-Borne Encephalitis • Includes St. Louis encephalitis (SLE), Eastern and Western equine encephalitis, and West Nile virus • Symptoms of SLE range from headache to aseptic meningitis and death • Transmission of WEE and SLE occurs above 11˚C and 15˚C, respectively. Mosquito that transmits WEE and SLE develops more rapidly at higher temperatures. World Distribution of Dengue - 2000 MONTANE REGIONS Atlantic Hurricane Season, 2005 Three category 5 hurricanes (Katrina, Rita, Wilma) and 23 other named storms; 12 other hurricanes Effects of Katrina • 1,300 deaths in Louisiana and Mississippi • Property damage estimated at $80 billion; additional cost of relocation, emergency shelter, etc. at least an additional $80 billion – Compared to Andrew (1991) = $35 billion • Overwhelmed infrastructure (water, electricity, transport, medical facilities) and response capabilities Katrina (cont.) • Lessons learned include better construction of levees (to withstand higher category storm and rainfall); • Emergency response capabilities require better communication infrastructure; • Personnel can act heroically, and volunteer and professional organizations’ efforts can continue for months • EPA testing continues (see “Enviromapper”) Future Prospects • More extreme (category 4 and 5) Atlantic hurricanes, especially during “la nina” years • More ice cap and glacier erosion and sea level rise – Inevitable, no matter what steps are taken in the short term • Slowing of North Atlantic Oscillation, more European weather anomalies – “The Day After Tomorrow” in slow motion Public Health Response • Better extreme weather and hurricane track prediction • Distributed emergency response capabilities • Shelters and air conditioned public facilities during heat waves • Training and simulation exercises • Support for international relief agencies • Continued effort to reduce carbon emissions