Download Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Calamitous Climate Change
R. Clapp
EH780
March 23, 2009
Weather VS Climate
• Weather is the temporary, day-to-day,
state of the atmosphere anywhere on
the Earth’s surface
• Climate is the long-term, prevailing pattern
of weather in any given place.
What is Global Warming?
Some solar
radiation is
reflected by Earth
and the
atmosphere.
Most radiation is absorbed by
the Earth’s surface and warms it.
Some of the infrared radiation
passes through the atmosphere,
and some is absorbed and reemitted in all directions by
greenhouse gas molecules. The
effect of this is to warm the Earth’s
surface and the lower atmosphere.
Infrared radiation is emitted
by the Earth’s surface
Global Air Temperature
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and U.S. EPA
The Warming Trend Has
Already Taken Hold
A few examples:
• Oceans, which can store large amounts of
heat, have warmed since 1950.
• Antarctic and Greenland ice shelves have
been eroding.
• Alaskan tundra is thawing.
“The Earth’s average temperature has gone
up between 0.5 and 1 degree Fahrenheit over
the past 100 years.”
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“The balance of evidence suggests that there
is discernible human influence on global
climate.”
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
CO2 Concentration, Last 1,000 Years
-Derived from ice-core measurements (South Pole) and direct
observation (Mauna Loa, Hawaii)
Source: Based on IPCC (1994)
Correlation
Between CO2
Concentrations
And
Temperature
The Warming Trends
The 20th century was the warmest of the last 6
centuries.
2005 was tied with 1998 (El Nino year) as the
warmest year on record.
Impacts of Climate Change
The IPCC predicts:
• Higher temperatures: 2 to 11 °F rise by 2100.
• Rising sea-levels: 6 to 38-inch increase by 2100,
although more catastrophic increases possible.
•Greenland glacial erosion; albedo reduction
• More precipitation extremes (storms and
droughts).
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
on Human Health
Altered Food and crop productivity
Climate affect:
Temperature
Precipitation
Sea level rise
Regional malnutrition and hunger
Extreme weather events
Deaths, injuries and psychological
disorders
Thermal extremes
Altered rates of heat- and cold-related
illness and death
Worsened air pollution
Effects on vectors and
infective parasites
Acute and chronic respiratory
disorders
Infectious diseases, waterborne
diseases
HURRICANE
MITCH
HURRICANE
MITCH 1998
SUMMER 2003
FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY,
SPAIN, PORTUGAL
20-30 000 deaths
Source: NASA
2003 Summer Temperatures
10oC (18oF) >30year average
Emerging and Re-emerging
Infectious Diseases
Source World Health Organization, 1996
Vector-Borne Encephalitis
• Includes St. Louis encephalitis (SLE),
Eastern and Western equine encephalitis,
and West Nile virus
• Symptoms of SLE range from headache to
aseptic meningitis and death
• Transmission of WEE and SLE occurs above
11˚C and 15˚C, respectively. Mosquito that
transmits WEE and SLE develops more
rapidly at higher temperatures.
World Distribution of Dengue - 2000
MONTANE REGIONS
Atlantic Hurricane Season,
2005
Three category 5 hurricanes
(Katrina, Rita, Wilma) and 23
other named storms; 12 other
hurricanes
Effects of Katrina
• 1,300 deaths in Louisiana and Mississippi
• Property damage estimated at $80 billion;
additional cost of relocation, emergency
shelter, etc. at least an additional $80 billion
– Compared to Andrew (1991) = $35 billion
• Overwhelmed infrastructure (water, electricity,
transport, medical facilities) and response
capabilities
Katrina (cont.)
• Lessons learned include better construction
of levees (to withstand higher category storm
and rainfall);
• Emergency response capabilities require
better communication infrastructure;
• Personnel can act heroically, and volunteer
and professional organizations’ efforts can
continue for months
• EPA testing continues (see “Enviromapper”)
Future Prospects
• More extreme (category 4 and 5) Atlantic
hurricanes, especially during “la nina” years
• More ice cap and glacier erosion and sea
level rise
– Inevitable, no matter what steps are taken in the
short term
• Slowing of North Atlantic Oscillation, more
European weather anomalies
– “The Day After Tomorrow” in slow motion
Public Health Response
• Better extreme weather and hurricane track
prediction
• Distributed emergency response capabilities
• Shelters and air conditioned public facilities
during heat waves
• Training and simulation exercises
• Support for international relief agencies
• Continued effort to reduce carbon emissions