Download present status and future vulnerabilities

Earth System Feedbacks:
Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle
to Drought and Fire
Canberra, Australia
5-8 June 2006 – Part I
8-9 June 2006 – Part II (Australia focus)
Organized by:
Global Carbon Project
ARC Network for Earth System Science
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Australian Climate Change Science Program
Australian Academy of Science
Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System
European Space Agency
The Earth System Science Partnership
Carbon-Climate-Human system
GCP Science Framework
1. Patterns and Variability
2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks
1.1. Enhancing Observations
2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechan.
1.2. Model-data Synthesis
2.2. Emergent Properties of the
Carbon-Climate system
1.3 Carbon Budgets
2.3. Vulnerabilities of the C-C-H
3. Carbon Management
3.1. Mitigation Options
3.2. Carbon Management &
Sustainability
3.3. Regional/Urban Develop.
Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century
Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System
2006/07
Land
Permafrost
HL Peatlands
T Peatlands
Veg.-Fire/LUC
Oceans
CH4 Hydrates
Biological Pump
Solubility Pump
Many Pools and Processes not included in Earth System models
Field and Raupach 2004
Canadell et al. 2006
Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century
Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System
400 Pg C - frozen soils
vulnerable to warming
>400 Pg C - frozen sediments
vulnerable to warming
Land
Permafrost
HL Peatlands
T Peatlands
Veg.-Fire/LUC
Oceans
CH4 Hydrates
Biological Pump
Solubility Pump
Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models
Field and Raupach 2004
Canadell et al. 2006
Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century
Photo: Erkki Oksanen
Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System
400 Pg C – cold peatlands
vulnerable to climate change
Land
Permafrost
HL Peatlands
T Peatlands
Veg.-Fire/LUC
Oceans
CHC
100 Pg
– tropical peatlands
4 Hydrates
Biological Pump
vulnerable
to land use and
Solubility Pump
climate change
Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models
Field and Raupach 2004
Canadell et al. 2006
Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century
>500System
Pg C
Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate
vegetation and soils
vulnerable to
drought x land use x fire
Land
Permafrost
HL Peatlands
T Peatlands
Veg.-Fire/LUC
Oceans
CH4 Hydrates
Biological Pump
Solubility Pump
Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models
Field and Raupach 2004
Canadell et al. 2006
Trends in C Emissions from Fires
3500
3000
Tg C yr-1
total
2500
1800
tropical savanna
1400
1000
600
temperate forest
200
tropical forest
boreal forest
1905
1925
Mouillot et al. 2006
1945
1965
1995
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle
Difference Coupled-Uncoupled
0.1°C to 1.5 ° C
20 to 200 ppm
Friedlingstein et al. 2006
Fossil Fuel + Land Use Change Scenarios
(IPCC SRES)
CO2 Concentrations
~250
ppm
IPCC SRES 2000; IPCC TAR 2001
Examples of vulnerable C pools to drought
of global significance
Boreal Forest
WC
Savanna
Forest
Drought and
Land Use
Temp.
Plantations
Boreal Fires
2003
NH Drought
Heat Wave
Borneo Peatlands
Drought
and Fire
Savanna
SE Forest
Carbon Emissions from Tropical Peatlands – Borneo
Spessa et al., in preparation
Carbon Emissions from Tropical Peatlands – Borneo
Annual C Emissions from peat fires
Emissions (Giga tonnes)
1.4
1.2
carbon
CO2
CO
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1997
1998
Spessa et al., in preparation
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
-2 -1
NEE (gC m
d )
6
2002
2003
2004
4
CO2 source
2
0
CO2 sink
-2
Dec. Jun.
Dec.
Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec.
Hirano et al., in preparation
Month
Northern Hemisphere Forest Sinks - Disturbances
Pg C yr-1
Goodale et al. 2002
Canadian Forest Net Carbon Uptake
Land Uptake
(Tg C /yr-1)
Disturbed Area
(M ha)
10
8
6
4
2
0
1920
1940
ClearCut
1960
1980
Fire
Insects
2000
Total
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
1920
1940
1960
Variable Temp
1980
Constant Temp
2000
Kurz & Apps 1999
Climate Variability Effects on the C Sink
Angert et al. 2005; Dai et al. 2005
2003 Heat Wave in Europe
Model NPP gCm-2 mo
The largest productivity crash of the past 100 years
30% Reduction of GPP
0.5PgC Net source of CO2
4years Equivalent C sink
CO2 Anomaly
Ciais et al. 2005, Peylin et al., unpublished
growt
h rate ((ppm
ppm/yr) yr-1) CO concentration
mixing ratio (p
(ppm)
Rate
Growth
2
Annual Mean CO2 at Cap Grim (Tasmania)
carbon dioxide (C O 2 )
0.54 %/yr
380
2005 Global Average:
279 ppm
Bern ref.
model
360
340
El Nino
2.5
Drought
growth rate increased
by 70% over last 30 years
2.0
1.5
La Nina
1.0
Pinotubo
0.5
1970
La Nina
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Paul Fraser, unpublished
Revised Global Carbon Budget 1980-2005
1980’s
1990’s
Atmospheric Increase
3.3±0.1
3.2±0.1
4.1±0.1
Emissions (FF)
5.4±0.3
6.4±0.3
7.0±0.3
Net Ocean-Atmosph. Flux
-1.8±0.8
-2.2±0.4
-2.2±0.5
Net Land-Atmosph. Flux
-0.3±0.9
-1.0±0.5
-0.7±0.5
Land Use Change
Residual Land Sink
1.3
-1.6
1.6
-2.6
NA
NA
(-3.8 to 0.3)
(-4.3 to 1.0)
GCP, IPCC in preparation
2000-2005
Land Uptake (Pg C yr-1
21st Century Projections of Terrestrial C Uptake
6 Dynamic Global
Vegetation Models
Cramer et al. 2001, IPCC TAR 2001, Friedlingstein et al. 2006, in press
10 Carbon Coupled
GCMs – C4MIP
Scope of the Workshop
Will changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly
drought characteristics (intensity, frequency, longterm trends) weaken the terrestrial C sink?
What are the consequences of the perturbation of the
carbon-water system for regional and global
management?
Workshop Themes
Theme 1:
Observations Climate and Vegetation
Theme 2:
Processes and Controls of the Coupled Carbon-Water
System
Theme 3:
Modeling Carbon-Water Interactions
Theme 4:
Vulnerability of Ecosystems Services
Outcomes
• Current evidence and understanding of impacts of
drought on the strength of the terrestrial C sink and
their underlaying drivers.
• Implications for global and regional management of
the carbon-water system.
• Identification of key research areas to advance in
this field.
Products
1. A synthesis paper on the state-of-the-art understanding on the
drought-C sink issue.
–
Short ms. for EOS, Science, Nature, others, …
2. A synthesis paper on the state-of-the-art understanding on
management of the carbon-water system.
–
Ecological Applications, others, …
3. Special Feature or Special Issue if enough interest exist.
–
Rapid Web Based Journals
•
•
–
–
–
–
Biogeoscience (EGU, AGU)
Carbon Balance and Management
Global Change Biology
Ecological Applications
Climatic Change
Others
Structure of the Workshop
20 minute talks
10 minute for questions
1 hour after each theme
Wednesday afternoon
4 hours – products and ms. outlines
Thursday morning
Overlap with a National Workshop
Thursday afternoon to Friday
National Workshop
Thursday afternoon
Trip to Namagi
end