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Chapter Five: Public Opinion and Political Socialization Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy • Public Opinion: the collected attitudes of citizens concerning a given issue or question Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5|2 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy • Characteristics of public opinion – The public’s attitudes toward a government policy can vary over time, often dramatically – Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policy – If asked, people are willing to register opinions on matters outside their expertise – Governments tend to respond to public opinion – The government sometimes does not do what the people want Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5|3 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy • Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone – Statistical sampling theory: a sample of individuals selected by chance from any population is representative of that population – Sampling theory does not claim that a sample exactly matches the population, only that it reflects the population with some predictable degree of accuracy. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5|4 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy • Three factors determine the accuracy of a sample: – How the sample is selected: randomly – The size of the sample: the larger the sample, the more accurately it represents the population – The amount of variation in the population: the greater the population variation, the greater the chance that one random sample will differ from another. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5|5 Gallup Poll Accuracy Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5|6 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy • Assumptions about the role of public opinion in democratic government – The majoritarian model: the government should do what a majority of the public wants – The pluralist model: requires that government institutions allow free expression of opinion by “minority publics” Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5|7 The Distribution of Public Opinion • Government must analyze the shape and the stability of the distribution of public opinion • Stable distribution: shows little change over time • Shape of the Distribution – The shape of the opinion distribution depicts the pattern of all the responses when counted and plotted – The 3 patterns of distribution: • Skewed Distribution: An asymmetrical but generally bell-shaped distribution (of opinions); its most frequent response, lies off to one side • Bimodal Distribution: A distribution (of opinions) that shows two responses being chosen about as frequently as each other • Normal Distribution: A symmetrical bell-shaped distribution (of opinions) centered on a single mode, or most frequent response. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5|8 Three Distributions of Opinion Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5|9 Political Socialization • Political Socialization: the complex process by which people acquire their political values. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 10 Political Socialization • The Agents of Early Socialization – Two fundamental principles characterize early learning • The primacy principle: what is learned first is learned best • The structuring principle: what is learned first structures later learning – Agents that structure early socialization include • The family • School • Community and peers Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 11 Political Socialization • Continuing Socialization – Peer groups assume greater importance is promoting political awareness and shaping opinions – Older Americans rely on newspapers and television news for political information – Younger Americans are more likely to rely on radio, magazines or the Internet for political information Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 12 Political Socialization, Age, and Public Opinion Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 13 Social Groups and Political Values • People with similar backgrounds tend to develop similar political opinions • Characteristics that shape political opinions – Education – Income – Race and ethnicity – Religion – Gender Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 14 Deviations of Group Opinion from National Opinion on Two Questions of Order and Equality Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 15 From Values to Ideology • The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion – Education leads to increased ideological thinking – The extent of ideological thinking in the U.S. is low Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 16 From Values to Ideology • The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion – In many people’s minds, Liberals are associated with change – In many people’s minds, Conservatives are associated with tradition • More helpful to think about tradeoffs; – Liberals are more willing to trade freedom for equality – Conservatives are more wiling to trade freedom for order Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 17 From Values to Ideology • Ideological Types in the United States – Conservative responses are the most common pattern – Communitarian responses are the 2nd most common pattern Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 18 Respondents Classified by Ideological Tendencies Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 19 Forming Political Opinions • Political Knowledge – Political knowledge is not randomly distributed – Women, African Americans, the poor, and the young tend to be less knowledgeable about politics than men, white, the affluent, and older citizens – The collective opinion of the public may still be interpreted as stable and meaningful Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 20 Forming Political Opinions • Costs, Benefits, and Cues – Self-interest principle: the implication that people choose what benefits them personally – Plays an obvious role in how people form opinions on government policies Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 21 Forming Political Opinions • Political Leadership – Public opinion is molded b political leaders, journalists, and policy experts – Politicians give cues to members of the public – Issue framing: the way that politicians or interest group leaders defines an issue when presenting it to others Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 5 | 22