Download Gauteng Climate Change Risk and vulnerability assessment

Project title: Provincial Plans Phase Three: Support the review of
Provincial Climate Change Response Strategies and the
Development of Action Plans
GAUTENG PROVINCE
Deliverable 2:
Phase Two: Report on the updated climate change projections and broad risk
and vulnerability assessment of selected sectors
FINAL DRAFT
10 February 2017
Submitted by the Project Team at Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG), and
African Climate Development Initiative (ACDI)
University of Cape Town (UCT)
Physical address: CSAG, Environmental and Geographical Sciences Building,
University of Cape Town
Postal address: Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa
Tel: +27 (0) 21 650 2784
ii
Neither the University of Cape Town, nor its affiliates, nor their third party providers guarantee the
accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information provided in this report. The
University of Cape Town, its affiliates or their third party providers and their directors, officers,
shareholders, employees or agents are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the
cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information. THE UNIVERSITY OF CAPE
TOWN, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL
EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES
OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall
the University of Cape Town, its affiliates or their third party providers and their directors, officers,
shareholders, employees or agents be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental,
exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees,
or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection
with any use of such information even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
iii
Acknowledgments:
This material draws strongly on some key national documents, namely the National
Adaptation Strategy (DEA, draft 2016), the Third National Communication (DEA, draft 2016)
and the LTAS Programme documents from 2013 and 2014.
We thank the following persons for providing comment on an earlier draft of this document:
Ms Rina Taviv
Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development
Mr Gerson Nethavhane
Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development
Mr Marc Leroy
Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development
iv
Contents
List of figures .................................................................................................................... vii
List of tables ..................................................................................................................... vii
List of abbreviations and acronyms.................................................................................. viii
Glossary ............................................................................................................................ x
Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 1
1.
Introduction .................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................. 4
1.2 Aims ............................................................................................................................ 4
1.3 Objectives .................................................................................................................... 5
1.4 Project work phases .................................................................................................... 5
1.5 Development of the province specific Gauteng project plan ......................................... 6
1.6 Stakeholder engagement ............................................................................................. 7
1.7 Deliverables ................................................................................................................. 7
2.
Methodology .................................................................................................................. 8
2.1 Sources of information ................................................................................................. 8
2.1.1 Desktop review ...................................................................................................... 8
2.1.2 Gauteng 1st stakeholder workshop ........................................................................ 8
2.2 Sectoral approach........................................................................................................ 9
2.3 Conceptual approach for assessing climate change impacts, risks and vulnerability . 10
2.4 Exposure ................................................................................................................... 10
2.5 Impacts and risks ....................................................................................................... 11
2.5.1 Desktop review .................................................................................................... 11
2.5.2 Stakeholder workshop ......................................................................................... 11
2.5.3 Analysis and prioritization .................................................................................... 13
2.6 Vulnerability ............................................................................................................... 14
3.
A Gauteng Climate Change Risk, Impact and Vulnerability Assessment ...................... 14
v
3.1 Context ...................................................................................................................... 14
3.2
Climate: current and future.................................................................................... 15
3.2.1 Climate of Gauteng ............................................................................................. 15
3.2.2
Nationally observed climate trends ................................................................ 16
3.2.3 Gauteng observed climate trends ........................................................................ 19
3.2.4 African and South African climate change projections ......................................... 21
3.2.5 Gauteng climate change projections ................................................................... 24
3.2.6 Climate change impacts on hydrology: recent results for Gauteng ...................... 30
3.3 Climate Change Impacts, Risks and Vulnerability ...................................................... 34
3.3.1 Agriculture and Food Security ............................................................................. 34
3.3.2 Biodiversity and ecosystems ............................................................................... 37
3.3.3 Water resources .................................................................................................. 40
3.3.4 Human settlements ............................................................................................. 43
3.3.5 Transport and public infrastructure ...................................................................... 46
3.3.6 Human health ...................................................................................................... 48
3.3.7 Disaster Risk Management ................................................................................. 50
3.3.8 Energy................................................................................................................. 52
3.3.9 Mining ................................................................................................................. 54
3.3.10 Manufacturing and agro-processing .................................................................. 56
3.4 Prioritisation and choice of key sectors ...................................................................... 58
3.5 Vulnerability to climate change impacts ..................................................................... 62
3.6 Discussion ................................................................................................................. 67
3.6.1 Infrastructure ....................................................................................................... 67
3.6.2 Agro-processing and food security ...................................................................... 71
3.6.3 Biodiversity and ecosystem services ................................................................... 74
3.6.4 Opportunities ....................................................................................................... 77
3.7 Limitation of the update and research gaps ............................................................... 78
vi
3.8 Review other provincial and sectoral policies and strategies ...................................... 79
3.8.1 Gauteng Agricultural Development Strategy (GADS) (2006) ............................... 80
3.8.2 Gauteng 20 Year Food Security Plan (2013) ....................................................... 81
3.8.3 Gauteng Agro-processing Strategy (2015) .......................................................... 81
3.8.4 State of Green Infrastructure in the Gauteng City-Region (2013) ........................ 82
3.8.5 Gauteng State of Environment Report (2011)...................................................... 83
3.8.6 Gauteng Provincial Environmental Management Framework (2014) ................... 83
3.8.7 Gauteng Spatial Development Framework 2030 ................................................. 83
3.8.8 Gauteng City Region Economic Development Framework Summary .................. 84
3.8.9 A strategy for a developmental green economy for Gauteng (2010) .................... 84
3.8.10 Gauteng City Region Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (GCR IIMP) 2030 .. 85
3.8.11 Gauteng Comprehensive Rural Development Strategy (2010) .......................... 85
3.8.12 Gauteng Social Development Strategy (2006) ................................................... 86
3.8.13 General discussion ............................................................................................ 86
4.
Recommendations for Phase 3 .................................................................................... 87
References.......................................................................................................................... 88
Appendix 1: List of documents consulted ............................................................................ 91
Appendix 2: Gauteng workshop participants ...................................................................... 95
Appendix 3: Gauteng workshop agenda............................................................................ 101
Appendix 4: List of indices of extreme climate used for the TNC ...................................... 103
Appendix 5: Gauteng climate trends................................................................................. 105
Appendix 6: Gauteng climate change projections ............................................................. 111
Appendix 7: List of additional climate change impacts added by workshop participants .... 128
vii
List of figures
Figure 1 Components of climate change impact and vulnerability ....................................... 10
Figure 2 Risk matrix of Likelihood versus Magnitude ........................................................... 12
Figure 3 CCAM dynamically downscaled projected changes in annual mean temperature . 25
Figure 4 CCAM dynamically downscaled changes in the number of very hot days .............. 26
Figure 5 CCAM dynamically downscaled projected changes in annual total rainfall ............ 28
Figure 6 Median impact of climate change on the average annual catchment runoff ........... 32
Figure 7 Social vulnerability index of South Africa (from le Roux et al. 2015, p.14) ............. 63
Figure 8 Index value of vulnerability to climate change for South African municipalities ...... 65
Figure 9 Frequency distributions of extreme potential impacts on the design flood (1:100
year) for key infrastructure .................................................................................................. 69
Figure 10 Number of bridges in each WMA in each risk class ............................................. 70
Figure 11 Predictions of biome climate envelopes under difference climate scenarios by
2050.................................................................................................................................... 76
List of tables
Table 1 Project deliverables .................................................................................................. 7
Table 2 The sectors currently in the GCCRS (left), and the sectors used for this assessment
............................................................................................................................................. 9
Table 3 Long-term climate stations in Gauteng Province used in the analysis of temperature
trends for the period 1931-2014 .......................................................................................... 17
Table 4 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of
the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Agriculture and Food Security sector ............... 35
Table 5 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of
the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Biodiversity and Ecosystems sector ................ 38
Table 6 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of
the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Water Resources sector .................................. 41
Table 7 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of
the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Human Settlements sector .............................. 44
Table 8 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of
the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Transport and Public Infrastructure sector ....... 47
Table 9 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of
the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Human Health sector ....................................... 48
viii
Table 10 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity
of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Disaster Risk Management sector ............... 51
Table 11 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity
of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Energy sector .............................................. 53
Table 12 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity
of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Mining sector ............................................... 55
Table 13 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity
of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Manufacturing and Agro-Processing sector . 56
Table 14 List of prioritised climate change impacts and risks across all sectors for the
Gauteng, numbered in order of priority according to (1) total rank, and (2) Risk .................. 58
Table 15 Parameters used in the local municipality vulnerability index ................................ 64
Table 16 Vulnerability scores for Municipalities in the Eastern Cape ................................... 66
Table 17 Climate risks for each of the biomes found in Gauteng, priority action and crosscutting sectors impacted ..................................................................................................... 75
Table 18 Gauteng provincial documents used for the assessment of climate change
adaptation mainstreaming ................................................................................................... 80
List of abbreviations and acronyms
ACDI
African Climate and Development Initiative (UCT)
AR4
Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
AR5
Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC
CCA
Climate change adaptation
CCAM
Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model
CCRS
Climate change response strategy
CCRVA
Climate change risk and vulnerability assessment
CGCM
Coupled Global Circulation Models
CoJ
City of Johannesburg
CORDEX
Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
CSAG
Climate System Analysis Group (UCT)
ix
DAFF
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
DEA
Department of Environmental Affairs
EbA
Ecosystem-based Adaptation
GCRO
Gauteng City Region Observatory
GDARD
Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development
GIZ
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit
ICLEI
Local Governments for Sustainability
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LTAS
Long Term Adaptation Scenarios
NAS
South Africa National Adaptation Strategy
NCCRP
National Climate Change Response Policy 2011
NCPC – SA
National Cleaner Production Centre of South Africa
RCP
Representative Concentration Pathway
SANEDI
South African National Energy Development Institute
SARVA
South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas
SAWS
South African Weather Service
SRES
Special Report on Emission Scenarios
TNC
South Africa’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC
UCT
University of Cape Town
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WCRP
World Climate Research Programme
WMO ETCCDI
World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate
Change Detection and Indices
x
Glossary1
Adaptive capacity: The ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to
adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to
consequences.
Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental
functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in
places and settings that could be adversely affected.
Impacts: Effects on natural and human systems. The term impacts is used primarily to refer
to the effects on natural and human systems of extreme weather and climate events and of
climate change. Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems,
economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to the interaction of climate
changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the
vulnerability of an exposed society or system. Impacts are also referred to as consequences
and outcomes.
Resilience: The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a
hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain
their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for
adaptation, learning, and transformation.
Risk: The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the
outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as
probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these
events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and
hazard. In this report, the term risk is used primarily to refer to the risks of climate-change
impacts.
Sensitivity: The degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or
beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop
1
IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate
Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and
L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
xi
yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect
(e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level
rise).
Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability
encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to
harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
1
Executive Summary
The Department of Environmental Affairs identified the need to have available a Gauteng
Provincial Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CCRVA) incorporating the
most recent studies and information. This process (Phase 2 of the overall project) aimed to
provide such a document which is specific to the province’s socio-economic and biophysical
context, using climate trends and downscaled climate change projections for the short,
medium and long term, and incorporating sectoral realities and vulnerabilities and other
gaps. This will then lead to the updating or revision of the Gauteng Climate Change
Response Strategy and Action Plan (GCCRS) in Phase 3, and the development of an Action
Plan in Phase 4.
In Phase 2 the task was to:
●
Provide updated short, medium and long term provincial scale climate change
projections, and broadly identify risks, impacts and vulnerabilities of key
sectors/focus areas (including infrastructure, agro-processing/food security and
biodiversity, as identified by the province) based on existing literature.
●
Review other provincial and sectoral policies/strategies to assess whether these align
with the broad risks, impacts and vulnerabilities identified in the step above.
This was completed through a combination of desktop research and the results of a
stakeholder workshop held in Johannesburg on 1 November 2016. An important component
was the updating of the climate science (climate change trends and projections) for
Gauteng, followed by an assessment of impacts, risk and vulnerability. Through a process of
prioritisation, a set of 46 climate change impacts were collated and then reduced to a final
set of 30 priority impacts.
Nine of the final 30 priority impacts relate to issues prioritised in the GCCRS. However, a
number of additional impacts were identified as high priority, covering the sectors
incorporated in the GCCRS and other “new” sectors. The sectors Energy and Mining were
given new prominence.
A broad review was conducted of the mainstreaming of climate change risks, impacts and
vulnerabilities (in the context of adaptation) into other provincial strategies, frameworks and
plans, and recommendations were made.
2
The following recommendations are made for the next phase (Phase 3), where the
GCCRS will be revised and updated.
1. The GCCRS should continue to take a sectoral approach to facilitate mainstreaming
into line departments and local government programmes.
2. The most up-to-date climate change projections indicate that both drying and wetting
scenarios are possible across the Province, given the current uncertainty in the
modelling, but there is a greater likelihood of drying in the longer term. Irrespective of
the direction of annual rainfall change, it is likely that extreme rainfall events linked to
more severe convective summer thunderstorms will increase. The GCCRS and
Action Plan should speak to these model results.
3. The updated Climate Change Action Plan (Phase 4 of this project) (although not
necessarily the updated GCCRS) should be spatially specific, where possible, and
speak to the most vulnerable systems at local scale where adaptive capacity is most
lacking and sensitivities are high.
4. The following sectors should be included as a priority in the GCCRS: Water
resources, Agriculture and food security, Biodiversity and ecosystems, Human
health, Disaster risk management, Human settlements, Energy and Mining. These
were identified based on both existing risk and vulnerability understanding and
stakeholder inputs.
5. The sectors Transport and infrastructure, and Manufacturing and agro-processing
should be further discussed at the second workshop.
6. Additional risks, impacts and vulnerabilities added by the workshop participants
require further study and discussion. We propose that they are not included in the
current update of the GCCRS until they are better understood and validated by
stakeholders.
7. There is further need to prioritise and simplify the strategic response and embed
these responses in the existing work programmes, priorities and budgets of provincial
line departments and municipalities. However, at the same time, strengthened and
new partnerships between government, NGOs, CBOs and the private sector must be
3
part of the updated strategy and action plan to achieve the required outcomes at a
more integrated systemic (and landscape) level.
8. The critical linkages and flows as well as shared vulnerabilities between the rural and
urban economic and social systems should be highly acknowledged and
incorporated into climate change response planning.
9. There are also opportunities for the province linked to the possibility of unchanged or
increased annual rainfall, and because of its robust water supply system the province
may experience less negative impacts than other areas of the country. With
adaptation, primary production of ecosystems and agriculture could remain good and
water resources should not become generally limiting. Adaptation should aim to both
reduce risk and increase resilience, and seize opportunities which may arise for the
province. In particular, the opportunities that support job creation such as renewable
energy, ecotourism and agro-processing should be further investigated.
4
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
Climate change is a serious threat to the sustainable development goals globally and in
South Africa, and threatens to halt or even reverse the socio-economic gains being made. In
South Africa, the National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP) (DEA, 2011)
facilitates the long-term, just transition to a climate-resilient and lower-carbon economy and
society. The implementation of the NCCRP is the responsibility of the National Department
of Environmental Affairs (DEA).
The NCCRP requires that each province must develop a climate change response strategy,
which evaluates provincial climate risks and impacts, to give effect to the policy at provincial
level. At the same time, the provinces are required to coordinate provincial adaptation and
mitigation responses across their own line departments, as well as between municipalities
within the province. To this end, provinces have developed climate change risk and
vulnerability assessment reports (CCRVAs), followed by climate change response strategies
(CCRS) and in some of the provinces an implementation/action plan. Provinces are in
various stages of readiness regarding the availability of these strategies, and their ability to
implement these.
For this project, DEA has identified the need to update existing provincial CCRVAs and
CCRSs to incorporate the most recent studies and information in four provinces: Gauteng,
Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. This process will ensure that the CCRVAs
are more specific to each province’s socio-economic and biophysical context, using climate
trends and downscaled climate change projections for the short, medium and long term, and
better incorporating sectoral realities and vulnerabilities. This will then lead to the updating or
revision of any existing CCRS and implementation/action plan.
The department has collaborated with the mandated department in each of these provinces
to consolidate and update the existing CCRS to improve the current state of readiness of
these provinces to respond to climate change.
1.2 Aims
The aim of the overall project is to strengthen provincial capacity and readiness for adapting
5
to climate change by providing the fundamental elements that may improve and guide
provincial climate change adaptation strategies and plans.
1.3 Objectives
The objectives of the overall project are to provide technical support for the following:
1. Consolidate and update the Climate Risk and Vulnerability assessment in respective
provinces for the short, medium and long term (i.e. from 2020 to 2070).
2. Review (where necessary) and update current adaptation response strategies and
actions/interventions to climate change risks.
3. Develop an implementation/action plan for respective provinces based on risks and
response strategies
1.4 Project work phases
The project is divided into four separate work phases with strong integration between them,
as follows:
Phase 1 – Inception
Phase 2 – Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Phase 3 – Adaptation Response Strategies
Phase 4 – Implementation plan for the adaptation options
This report is for Phase 2 of the project. The generic output for Phase 2 across the four
provinces is as follows:
●
Make revisions and update Climate Risk and Vulnerability assessments, where
required for the short, medium and long term (i.e. from 2020 to 2070). The revisions
should consider the following:
o
Gaps in research and updating where possible using the latest available
information; and
6
o
Sector vulnerability, as identified within the existing Climate Change
Response Strategy and additional sectors that are becoming sensitive due to
the frequency and severity of the climate change induced hazards.
Output: Compile a report for knowledge management purposes and to support tasks in
subsequent phases.
1.5 Development of the province specific Gauteng project plan
As part of Phase 1 two inception meetings were held. The first meeting was held on 11
August 2016 in Pretoria and was attended by members of the project management team, the
consultants and the focal points for Gauteng. Details of the project were discussed and
expectations laid out, and the provincial partners presented the status of the climate change
adaptation work in the province. A follow up meeting by Skype was held on 8 September
2016 with the provincial partners. Thereafter the Gauteng Provincial project plan was drafted
in line with the main project deliverables and timelines. This plan was approved by DEA and
GIZ on 27 October 2016.
For Phase 2 Risk and Vulnerability Assessment, the following province specific project plan
was agreed for Gauteng:
Phase 2: Risk & Vulnerability assessment
●
Provide updated short, medium and long term provincial scale climate change
projections, and broadly identify risks, impacts and vulnerabilities of key
sectors/focus areas (including infrastructure, agro-processing/food security and
biodiversity, as identified by the province) based on existing literature.
●
Review other provincial and sectoral policies/strategies to assess whether these align
with the broad risks, impacts and vulnerabilities identified in the step above.
Output: Report on the updated climate change projections and broad risk and vulnerability
assessment of selected sectors.
7
1.6 Stakeholder engagement
Two sets of participatory stakeholder workshops form an essential part of the project. The
first set of workshops (Gauteng, Kwazulu-Natal and Eastern Cape) took place in November
2016 and covered both Phase 2 and Phase 3. The second set of workshops will take place
in February 2017 and will be held in all four provinces, focusing on the work of Phase 4.
The workshop participants are drawn from a range of provincial sector departments and
other provincial institutions, local government (municipalities), key national sector
departments (e.g. Department of Water and Sanitation), private sector, civil society and
academia. The stakeholders play an important role in the co-production of outputs and
validation of climate change risks/vulnerabilities, adaptation options and strategy, and priority
actions. Their contributions will be merged with the desktop analysis for the finalisation of the
outputs of each phase. The second set of workshops will also serve to validate the outputs
of phases 2 and 3 and achieve the necessary buy-in and ownership.
1.7 Deliverables
The deliverables of the overall project are as follows (Table 1):
Table 1 Project deliverables
Deliverable
1.
Phase One: Inception
2.
Phase Two: Climate Risk and
Vulnerability Assessment
3.
Phase Three: Adaptation Response
Strategies
4.
Phase Two and Three: Stakeholder
Engagement
5.
Phase Four: Action Plans
6.
Phase Four: Stakeholder Engagement
Timeframe for delivery
August 2016
August – December 2016
October – December 2016
November 2016
January 2016 – March 2017
January – March 2017
8
2. Methodology
2.1 Sources of information
2.1.1 Desktop review
Initially, a desktop review was conducted on known climate change risks, impacts and
vulnerabilities, with a focus on the GCCRS (RVA elements) and other documents published
since 2011. A defined set of documents was used for the assessment. These were identified
using the guidance given in the project Terms of Reference, documents provided by the
Gauteng focal point, and the experience of the UCT project team. The documents included
national climate change response plans, strategies and communications, Long Term
Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS) reports, national sectoral climate change response plans,
selected research reports, and selected provincial and municipal policies, strategies,
frameworks and plans. A full list of the documents consulted can be found in Appendix 1.
2.1.2 Gauteng 1st stakeholder workshop
In order to assess the locally relevant risks, impacts and vulnerabilities for Gauteng, it was
essential to consult the provincial stakeholders. A stakeholder workshop was held on 1
November 2016 at the Protea Hotel Parktonian in Johannesburg, with 37 participants from
the following institutions: City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, City of Tshwane
Metropolitan Municipality, Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality, Department of Co-operative
Governance & Traditional Affairs, Sedibeng District Municipality, Earthlife Africa, Federation
for a Sustainable Environment, Gauteng Department of Health, Gauteng Department of
Agriculture & Rural Development, Gauteng Department of Infrastructure Development,
Gauteng Office of the Premier, Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), Johannesburg
City Parks, National Cleaner Production Centre of South Africa (NCPC – SA), South African
National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), Saturday Star, and Wits University (the list
of registered participants and their associated sectors can be found in Appendix 2).
A central component of the workshop was aimed at exploring the implications of updated
climate change projections for Gauteng, and other recent literature and experiences, on
Gauteng climate change impact, risk and vulnerability, at provincial and sectoral level. (The
full workshop agenda can be found in Appendix 3).
9
2.2 Sectoral approach
Planning and implementation at all three tiers of government (national, provincial and local)
occur on a sector per sector basis, and the two central national climate change documents,
the NCCRP (DEA, 2011) and the National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) (in draft), have taken
the sectoral approach. The current development of Municipal Climate Change Strategies
through the Local Government Climate Change Support Programme is likewise based on
the sectoral approach. A sectoral approach was therefore taken for this project, to ensure
consistency and alignment with government implementation and with key policies, plans and
strategies.
The approach taken in this work, and thus the impacts and risks presented in this report, are
therefore categorised according to sectors. The GCCRS was also based on sectors. These
have been extended and amended as per the sectors that have since emerged from the
national and provincial literature, and in particular the current draft NAS document.
Previously, sectors such as energy, mining and transport were regarded only in relation to
mitigation, but there is an emerging understanding that they are also affected by climate
change and that the whole economy must be resilient, so that adaptation action is required
in all sectors. The original GCCRS sectors and the “new” sectors (i.e. recently identified as
potentially being impacted by climate change and possibly requiring adaptive responses) as
applied in this work can be found in Table 2.
During the Inception Phase (Phase 1) the Gauteng provincial partners requested the
inclusion of, and particular attention to, the sectors “infrastructure”, “agro-processing/food
security”, and “biodiversity”. The sector “manufacturing” was added to account for agroprocessing, while “food security” was linked to “agriculture”. The potential sectors/subsectors “marine and coastal zones”, “fisheries” and “forestry” were not included in the
Gauteng analysis since they are either not relevant or are too small to be socio-economically
important in this province.
Table 2 The sectors currently in the GCCRS (left), and the sectors used for this assessment
Sectors: Gauteng Climate Change
Response Strategy
Water
Extended set of sectors for project
purposes
Urban development and infrastructure
Urban and rural settlements
Water
10
Transport and public infrastructure
Natural resources and biodiversity
Biodiversity and ecosystems
Health
Human health
Agriculture and food security
Agriculture and food security
Disaster risk management
Disaster risk management
Energy
Mining
Manufacturing and agro-processing
UNEP risk model
2.3 Conceptual approach for assessing climate change impacts, risks and
Exposure
Sensitivity
vulnerability
Exposure
Susceptibility
Various conceptual understandings of vulnerability to climate change exist. The
Potential
Adaptive(IPCC, 2014a) defines vulnerability
Vulnerability
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
to climate
impact
capacity
change as “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability
encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to
Vulnerability
Risk
harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.” According to the still widely used conceptual
approach presented below, the assessment of vulnerability then includes a measure of
exposure to the risk factors and sensitivity to the factors, together comprising the potential
Hazard
X
Probability
=
Risk
impact of such risks, and the capacity to manage and respond to those risks (Figure 1).
Definitions of these terms can be found in the list of abbreviations and acronyms.
Exposure
Adaptive capacity
Sensitivity
Potential impact
Vulnerability
Figure 1 Components of climate change impact and vulnerability
2.4 Exposure
In the assessment we explore “exposure” from the point of view of pre-existing climate risks
and historical trends (used as part of the “short term” lens), and changing/projected climate
risks for three time periods: 2016-2035 (the short term), 2046-2065 (the medium term), and
2080-2100 (the long term). These are the time periods used for the most recent set of
projections for South Africa and the Provinces as presented in the draft Chapter 3 of South
Africa’s Third National Communication (TNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (DEA, draft, September 2016). While the draft TNC is the
Hazard
11
main source of information, we also draw on the previous national study on climate change
trends and projections as part of the LTAS project.
2.5 Impacts and risks
In this assessment we include a variety of primary, secondary and tertiary impacts that
broadly speak to the biophysical, social and economic outcomes. These impacts are then
linked to risk through the consideration of risk as likelihood times magnitude, where
likelihood speaks to the probability of risk eventuating and magnitude speaks to the scale of
impact on the province should the risk eventuate.
2.5.1 Desktop review
Lists of impacts were compiled for each sector (see section 3.3), based on impacts found in
the GCCRS (GDARD, 2011), the NCCRP (DEA, 2011), the draft TNC (DEA, 2016a), the
draft NAS (DEA, 2016b), LTAS reports, national sectoral plans, and the completed
municipal/Metro CCRSs. For the GCCRS, which does not include a CCRVA, and for many
of the other documents, identification of impacts required some interpretation and drawing
impacts out of the text.
2.5.2 Stakeholder workshop
The stakeholder workshop session on Climate Change Risks and Vulnerability started with a
summary presentation on the climate change science (historical trend analysis and future
projections) for Gauteng Province. This was followed by a participatory activity aimed at
gaining an up-to-date understanding of the current climate change risks, impacts and
vulnerability for the province. The list of impacts for each sector, compiled in the desktop
review as described in 2.5.1 above, were pre-printed on large posters and put on the wall
creating sectoral stations where participants gathered around. Participants were asked to
first validate impacts drawn (interpreted) from the GCCRS by placing stickers on those that
should still be considered a priority. They were then asked to look at the new impacts
coming out of the other plans and reports, and identify (using stickers) up to three of these
that they thought should become a priority. Lastly, participants were given the opportunity to
write in additional impacts on a blank chart, and to further prioritise these using stickers.
12
For each impact they chose to prioritise, participants were also asked to rate these as a Low,
Medium or High risk in the province, based on the consideration of risk as per the schematic
below (Figure 2). They were also asked to indicate whether they think the impact will
become problematic in the S=short term (2016-2035), M=medium term (2046-2064) and
L=long term (2080-2100), with the choice of choosing one, two or all three time frames.
Figure 2 Risk matrix of Likelihood versus Magnitude where Likelihood is defined as the
probability of the risk eventuating and Magnitude is defined as the scale of the impact
should the risk eventuate. Source: City of Tshwane (2015)
For prioritisation, risk rating and time scales participants used the colour- and size-coded
stickers. Each sector was allocated a colour, and participants were asked to self-identify the
sector they most relate to in their field of work and vote using the sticker with that sector’s
colour. In addition, the size of the sticker identified whether they were in the government or
the non-government sector. This allowed the project team to take into account possible
differences in prioritisation between various sectors, and between government and nongovernment actors. In the participatory activities, participants were asked to first go their own
self-identified sector (“station”) before going to other sectoral “stations”. It was left to them to
decide which and how many other stations to participate in.
The participatory approach allowed for substantial individual input from all stakeholders. It
was also found that group discussion formed naturally at many of the sectoral “stations”, and
these sometimes led to additional impacts being added to the sheets provided for this
purpose.
13
2.5.3 Analysis and prioritization
The findings of the participatory prioritisation, risk ranking and identification of time frames
conducted at the workshop can be found in sectoral tables in section 3.3. In these tables the
first column shows the climate change impacts compiled (interpreted) from the GCCRS (in
black), other national and provincial documents (in green), and added by the workshop
participants (in blue). The subsequent columns present the workshop results. “Ranking”
refers to the number of stickers assigned to each impact chain, showing the total number of
votes received, with a subsequent break-down of governmental versus non-governmental
votes. “Risk” was estimated based on that which received the largest number of votes (Low,
Medium or High), highlighting two or all three only if they received the same number of
votes. Time frames show all the time frames that had been voted for (Short, Medium or
Long), highlighting that (or those) with the most votes in bold.
For each sector, the impacts with the two highest vote counts stemming from the workshop
(e.g. those with 8 and 7 votes) were identified as high priority. There were two exceptions:
1. For Transport and Public Infrastructure, only impacts receiving 5 votes were
prioritised (8 out of 11 impacts) and the other two (2 and 0 votes) were not included
in the prioritization.
2. For Manufacturing and agro-processing, no impacts received more than one vote.
This was deemed too low for prioritization. It might be explained by the fact that there
were no specialists representing these sectors in the workshop.
The results for Risk and Time frames were not taken into consideration for the prioritisation.
However, an analysis showed that the high prioritised impacts were almost all considered
High or Medium risk, and Short Term (although often in combination with Medium and Long
Term).
The high prioritised impacts for each sector were compiled into one table, and then further
prioritised by only including those with 6 votes or more. This means that any impacts with 5
votes or less were excluded in the final list. The final list of high priority impacts coming out
of the participatory prioritisation process was reviewed by the provincial focal point. The final
overview of high priority impacts is presented and unpacked in section 3.4.
14
2.6 Vulnerability
As per Figure 1 above, vulnerability would generally incorporate emphasis on adaptive
capacity. However, emphasis on adaptive capacity was placed in Phase 3 of this project.
Though in recognizing the essential role of adaptive capacity in the realization of overall
vulnerability, section 3.5 of this report provides a summary of work addressing aspects of
adaptive capacity in Gauteng, namely: the social vulnerability index for South Africa,
developed by Le Roux et al. (2015); and the vulnerability index for South African local
municipalities (Turpie and Visser, 2013).
3. A Gauteng Climate Change Risk, Impact and Vulnerability
Assessment
3.1 Context
The Gauteng Province does not have a dedicated Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVA)
document, however the Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy (GCCRS) (GDARD,
2011) contains some information on climate projections and drivers of change and impacts
for the six sectors of focus. This information can be found in section five of the Strategy,
which is entitled the Gauteng Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. The
section focuses on six sectors, namely: Water; Urban Development and Infrastructure;
Natural Resources and Biodiversity; Health; Agriculture and food security; and Disaster Risk
Management. For each sector an overview is provided followed by several actions, each
with details around what is to be achieved through the action, why it is needed as an
adaptation measure, how the action is to be achieved and who may be responsible for
implementation of the action.
Each of the sector sections include qualitative information on the current context of that
sector (e.g. food produced versus food consumed in relation to Agriculture and food security,
or demand-side management initiatives implemented in the water sector), as well as a
variety of information on interconnected socio-economic and climatic drivers of change and
impacts (e.g. urban expansion leading to encroachment on wetlands and subsequent loss of
biodiversity and prime agricultural land). The summaries are relatively generic, and there is
no reference made to underlying studies or research. The focus of the details provided for
15
each sector differs, and the presentation of specific climate change projections, beyond the
mentioning of climate change scenarios or climate change induced shocks, is limited to the
water, health and disaster risk management sectors. The climate change projections
presented for these sectors are very generic (e.g. more variable rainfall amounts, increasing
rainfall intensity, increasing temperatures). Only the water and health sectors explicitly
outline linkages between climate change projections and possible impacts on the sector (e.g.
increasing temperatures leading to increasing evaporation from water bodies and
subsequent increasing water losses from large dams).
The sector context, drivers and impacts provided in the GCCRS provides a good starting
point for a qualitative approach to understanding risk and vulnerability. There is a lot of
scope to expand on this, particularly in terms of the level of details across all sectors and in
terms of the explicit linkages to climate change in the broader socio-economic, political and
biophysical context.
In the following section, we provide the latest information on the climate science, and risk
and vulnerability understanding. It is beyond the scope of this analysis to generate any new
research, and this update is thus provided through the collation of research and information
that has emerged since 2011. This was then combined with stakeholder inputs through a
participatory workshop, through which impacts prioritisation and risk ranking was conducted.
The below thus includes: section 3.2 with updates to the climate science; section 3.3 with
updates to the climate impacts and risks; section 3.4 with prioritisation and identification of
key sectors; section 3.5 with vulnerability to climate change; section 3.6 general discussion;
and lastly in 3.7 an overview of limitations of the update and research gaps. A final set of
recommendations and linkages to the next phase of this project, the adaptation strategy
update, is provided in section 4.
3.2 Climate: current and future
3.2.1 Climate of Gauteng
Gauteng experiences a mild sub-tropical climate with wet summer (rainfall occurring
primarily from thunderstorms) and dry winter seasons and annual rainfall in the 600-750mm
range. Thunderstorms occasionally bring hail, damaging winds (on occasion tornados) and
flash floods. Cold nights and frost are common on higher-lying areas of the southern part of
16
the province. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence on summer
and annual rainfall, with El Niño events associated with below-normal rainfall and La Niña
events often bringing large-scale flooding and above-normal rainfall.
3.2.2 Nationally observed climate trends
The GCCRS was developed during a period when the latest climate change trends and
projections at a global and continental scale were available through the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007. In
2013/2014, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was released (IPCC, 2013; IPCC, 2014b). It
considers new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses
from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate
processes and simulations using climate models. In the African context, the Africa Chapter
of Working Group Two (Niang et al., 2014) describes observed trends in African climate, and
makes use of general circulation models (GCMs) to describe the large scale climatic
changes that are projected in Africa for a range of mitigation futures. Since the results from
the AR5 form the basis of Southern African and South African studies of climate change
trends and scenarios, they will not be presented here and the focus will be on the most
recent national and sub-national studies using GCM-based and downscaled methodologies.
The GCCCRS did not explicitly present national and provincial climate change trends and
scenarios. The remainder of this chapter is based primarily on the modelling recently
conducted for the TNC (DEA, 2016a). Reference is also made to the previous climate
change trends and scenarios published through the LTAS project (DEA, 2013a).
3.2.2.1 Improved methodologies for the TNC
The climate change trend analysis conducted for the TNC builds on the previous work for the
LTAS programme, but with key improvements. The improvements in the analysis of surface
temperature trends lie in the use of longer time series data, going back to the 1930’s (in
some cases early 1940’s), and the use of a homogenisation procedure. The results used for
the LTAS report were based on a shorter time period of analysis, which creates challenges
relating to the cyclical patterns of the regional climate system. The LTAS analysis also did
not use data homogenisation, which limits the number of stations which can be included. For
17
purposes of continuity and comparison, a trend analysis was also performed for the period
1951-2015 on the extended LTAS (2013a) data set.
The new approach for the TNC produced a set of time series of 27 climate stations across
South Africa which were used for detailed temperature trend analysis. Of these, five occur in
Gauteng Province (Table 3). The analysis was also extended to include the determination of
trends in extreme temperatures according to a set of indices based on those developed by
the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and
Indices (WMO ETCCDI)2 (the list of indices used for the TNC is provided in Appendix 4). The
base period, from which the annual index values of all extreme indices are determined
(except the annual maxima and minima), was selected as 1981 – 2010, which agrees with
the norm for similar trend studies.
Table 3 Long-term climate stations in Gauteng Province used in the analysis of temperature trends
for the period 1931-2014 (TNC)
Climate Station
Approximate
Longitude (°)
27.80
Approximate height
(m)
1578
Start year
Zuurbekom
Approximate
Latitude (°)
-26.30
Johannesburg
-26.13
28.23
1676 – 1695
1946
Pretoria Pur
-25.73
28.17
1286
1937
Pretoria
-25.73
28.18
1300 – 1330
1939
Pretoria University Exp. Farm
-25.75
28.27
1372
1931
1931
The rainfall trend analysis for the period 1921 – 2015 is based on the time series of 60
individual stations of SAWS. The selected stations have at most 10% of the data record
missing over the analysis period. As for temperature, analysis of rainfall trends went beyond
the annual rainfall totals to also include a set of indices capturing rainfall extremes, selected
from those developed by the WMO ETCCDI, using the base period 1981 – 2010. The trend
analysis was also performed for the period 1960-2015 on the extended LTAS (2013a) data
set to better compare the results between the two studies.
Statistical tests were applied to assess both the strength of the trend and the magnitude
(slope). The trend indices used are an improvement on the linear trend used until recently,
since they deal better with outliers and spurious results. Tests were also applied to identify
2
http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml
18
the presence of serial correlation in climate data, followed by the procedure of stationary
bootstrapping (for details please refer to DEA, 2016a).
The updated methodologies improve the robustness of the outcomes of the climate trend
analysis conducted for the TNC compared to previous work including the LTAS.
The following sections summarise the results for South Africa as a whole as presented in the
draft TNC. Detailed results for Gauteng will be discussed in section 3.2.3, and additional
information is presented in Appendix 5.
3.2.2.2 Temperature and rainfall trends
Across South Africa, the trend in annual mean temperatures is approximately 0.14°C per
decade for the period 1951 – 2015. The year 2015 has been the hottest year ever in the
record, and 2016 is on track to surpass this level. The majority of climate stations indicate
significant warming trends, some greater than 0.2°C per decade. Increases in annual mean
maximum temperatures have occurred across the country and are similar to those presented
in the LTAS report (DEA, 2013a). The Western Cape, east coast of KwaZulu-Natal and
Gauteng show the strongest increases. However, the decreases in annual mean minimum
temperatures found for the central interior (Vaal hydrological zone) in the LTAS report are no
longer evident in the TNC analysis; instead, parts of these areas now also show significant
warming trends for mean minimum temperature.
The annual number of warm nights has increased (mainly along the coast and Gauteng) and
the number of cold nights has decreased across most parts of the country. On the other
hand, the trends in annual number of hot and cool days are more variable and generally
smaller than for nights, but still indicate widespread warming. The significant increases in
cold nights and decreases in hot days in the central interior reported in the LTAS (DEA,
2013a) are no longer evident in the current results, owing to the longer time series and
homogenization of the data. It is only in the western parts of the interior where significant
increases in the length of warm spells are evident. In contrast to warm spells, cold spells
have decreased significantly for most stations. Trends in hot days (days>35°C) are positive
throughout the country, but statistically significant at only one station (northern Free State).
The individual station rainfall data sets show a positive (wetting) trend in annual rainfall totals
over the central southern interior and extending to some extent into the north-central interior.
19
A negative (drying) trend is seen in the northern parts of Limpopo Province. Over the
remainder of the country the trends are largely statistically insignificant. The positive trends
in the central southern interior (from the western interior of the Eastern Cape and eastern
interior of the Western Cape northwards into the central interior region of the Northern Cape)
are reflected mostly in the trends for summer rainfall, the main rainfall season in these areas.
The decreasing trends over Limpopo seem to be largely the result of decreasing rainfall
trends in autumn. Other seasonal rainfall trends are not as marked. Trends in rainfall
intensity (mean daily rainfall, and the total rainfall in events >95th and 99th percentile) are
broadly consistent with the total annual rainfall trends, showing predominantly positive trends
in the western part of the country, and mixed patterns of positive and negative trends in the
eastern part of the country.
With respect to rainfall extremes, there have been significant increases in very high daily
rainfall totals in the southern and south-western interior and coastal regions, but decreases
in the far north-east (although this result is not as robust). The annual maximum rainfall
amount has also increased in the south, probably contributing to the observed increases in
annual rainfall totals in these areas. There has been a widespread significant trend towards
greater intensity of daily rainfall (i.e. the average amount of rainfall that is received on a day
with rainfall), with only a few exceptions mainly in the north-east. These trends suggest a
rising probability of disasters relating to heavy rainfall, such as flash floods. Trends in the
annual maximum length of wet spells (maximum number of consecutive days with
precipitation ≥ 1mm) show general increases in the south and decreases in the north-east.
The annual maximum length of dry spells (consecutive days <1mm) has tended to decrease
in the south-west and parts of the north along the escarpment, but has increased in the east
and north-east.
Overall, the patterns identified in the TNC study corroborate those presented in the LTAS
report (DEA, 2013a), but with stronger evidence for an increase in heavy and extreme
rainfall events.
3.2.3 Gauteng observed climate trends
Gauteng province has shown exceptionally strong trends of more than 2°C/century over the
period 1931-2015 (DEA, 2016a). This is significantly higher than the mean global warming
trend, which is in the region of 1°C for the last century or so, and significantly higher than the
20
average trend for South Africa which is approximately 0.14°C per decade. Gauteng has also
generally experienced a strong increase in annual mean maximum temperature, as well as
significant increases in minimum temperature. A contributing factor for these trends could lie
in an increasing heat island effect related to the strong urbanization of the province. Trends
in annual mean maximum and minimum temperature differ between the five climate stations,
leading to both increasing and decreasing trends in annual diurnal temperature range
(decreasing trends are more common in the country).
The annual number of warm nights has increased significantly, but the decrease in annual
number of cold nights has been stronger in absolute terms. The number of hot days has
been increasing over the same period at a rate of about 1 day/decade. Trends between the
five stations for the annual maximum lengths in warm spells range from significantly positive
to neutral, and those for number of cool days range from significantly negative to neutral. All
stations show significantly negative trends in the annual maximum lengths of cold spells. All
these indices strengthen the evidence for warming in the province, during both day and
night.
Similar conclusions were presented in the City of Johannesburg Climate Change Adaptation
Plan (City of Johannesburg, 2009, p.8). The report states that “In the CoJ region, the
climatology of lowest minimum temperature hovers just below 0°C during the winter months;
therefore, this trend of up to 1°C could potentially be important in determining the number of
frost days experienced in the region.” The City of Tshwane Vulnerability Assessment to
Climate Change (City of Tshwane, 2015) concluded that temperatures are rising rapidly, at
about twice the global rate of temperature increase. However, as noted in the TNC, a
warning is sounded that “attribution of these changes to human-caused climate change is
not an automatic conclusion. These changes may be due in part to other factors such as the
urban heat island effect and land surface change.” (City of Johannesburg, 2009, p.8)
Annual rainfall totals at stations in the province do not exhibit statistically significant trends
and rainfall trends are mixed across the Gauteng area, although there is increased
domination of positive significant trends. In the analysis of the extended LTAS data set for
1960-2015, mainly positive trends in rainfall are seen for the Gauteng region. Trends in
seasonal rainfall totals for Gauteng, although showing some indication of wetting in summer,
do not show any statistically significant results.
21
There is evidence of significant increases in the intensity of daily rainfall, and increases in
the occurrence of extreme daily rainfall events (rate of increase as high as 2 days per
decade). Very high daily rainfall totals appear to have been more prevalent in the summer,
although this result is not significant, with smaller positive trends in autumn and spring. The
number of annual rain days has decreased significantly at the same time. There was also a
minor indication (not significant) of an increasing trend in the annual maximum length of a
wet spell, and a decreasing trend in the annual maximum length of a dry spell. These results
suggest rising risks of high rainfall of short duration, which in turn indicates a higher
probability of related disasters such as flash floods during the rainfall season.
3.2.4 African and South African climate change projections
Climate change is projected to impact the African continent more negatively than the global
picture suggests, particularly under low mitigation future scenarios. Temperature increases
are projected to be more rapid than the global rate of temperature increase, by a factor of up
to 2. Southern Africa (particularly the areas with a Mediterranean-type climate) and
Mediterranean North Africa are likely to become generally drier, whilst East Africa and most
of tropical Africa are likely to become wetter.
There is growing evidence that impacts will be felt through changes both in average
temperatures and rainfall patterns, and in extreme weather events. For the southern African
region, these are likely to include more frequent occurrences of dry spells over most of the
interior, less frequent cut-off-low related floods, and more intense thunderstorms in areas
with a more tropical climate.
The global, continental and regional climate change projections are based on global
circulation models (GCMs) with a horizontal resolution of about 200km, together with
downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) with a horizontal resolution of about 50km. The
latter has been driven by the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) of
the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).
For South Africa, downscaled climate change projections were developed for the LTAS
project (DEA, 2013a), based on the work done for the AR5. For the LTAS and subsequent
work, the South African research community decided to develop a set of scenarios based as
far as possible on updated emission scenarios representing high and mitigated pathways,
22
namely the RCP 8.5 and 4.5 Wm-2 pathways. These are roughly comparable to the IPCC
AR4 A2 and B1 emissions scenarios, which have been extensively used in South Africa,
thus providing a link between scenario, impacts and adaptation work done previously.
Another new feature is the modelling of short term scenarios for the time period 2015 –
2035, in addition to the medium term (2040 – 2060) and long term (2070 – 2090) previously
analysed.
For LTAS, statistical downscaling was performed using an ensemble of downscaling of ten
Coupled Global Circulation Models (CGCM) and four scenarios representing constrained
and unconstrained mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions: SRES B1 and SRES A2
(IPCC AR4), and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC AR5). Dynamic downscaling was performed
for SRES A2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and used the CCAM GCM.
The most recent projections, for the TNC, used both statistical and dynamic downscaling for
the emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results are summarised as follows:
3.2.4.1 Temperature changes
Climate models indicate that South Africa is likely to experience significant warming in the
future, with the strongest warming projected for the interior and the weakest warming rate
occurring along the coastline. All models regardless of emission scenario (RCP) agree that
the magnitude of warming for the near-term (2016 – 2035) will be 0.5˚C to 1.0˚C, depending
on coastal to interior location. Model projections diverge by the mid-2000s (2046 – 2065),
and by the end of this century (2080 – 2100) there is disagreement between models and
depending on emissions scenarios. At this time scale, under representative concentration
pathway (RCP) 8.5, temperature increases of more than 4°C are likely over the entire South
African continent, with increases of more than 6°C plausible over large parts of the western,
central and northern interior regions. Such increases will also be associated with drastic
increases in the number of heat-wave days and very hot days. However, under RCP4.5,
temperature increases over the interior can be constrained to 2.5 to 4°C and some models
project warming as low as 1.5˚C. This indicates a very strong dependence of climate change
sensitivity in South Africa on emissions scenarios. Temperatures are likely to increase
drastically under low mitigation but South Africa is plausibly committed to relatively large
increases in near-surface temperatures, even under high-mitigation futures.
23
3.2.4.2 Rainfall changes
Projected changes in rainfall totals and other rainfall-related statistics generated by global
climate models are more uncertain than temperature change projections. This is because
global climate models simplify several aspects of the climate system relating to rainfall,
including topography, convective rainfall processes, and processes of cloud formation and
dynamics. In addition, some fundamental processes relating to moisture transport are
inadequately captured, decreasing confidence in convective processes and related rainfall
processes. These are of particular relevance for rainfall in tropical latitudes. Because of this,
global climate models may not reproduce local- or regional-scale rainfall patterns accurately
and often produce significant biases (too much rainfall or too little rainfall) in comparison with
observations. Nonetheless, global climate models are able to reproduce large-scale
circulation features well and in many cases agree on projected shifts in these large-scale
processes into the future. For this reason, consideration should be given to large-scale shifts
in rainfall patterns produced by global climate models rather than to local-scale changes,
and to the investigation of downscaling approaches with full presentation of uncertainties to
gain insights into local-scale precipitation changes because of large-scale circulation
changes.
Up to 2035, models show mixed, relatively small and insignificant changes in annual total
rainfall across South Africa. Towards mid-century, many models show significant changes,
with the majority of models showing decreased rainfall, especially in south-western South
Africa, and a few showing increased rainfall in various regions, particularly in the summer
rainfall region. Towards the end of this century, these patterns are strengthened, with the
majority of models showing significant drying over many parts of the country and a minority
of models showing increased rainfall (over the central interior, southern interior and Cape
south coast) under RCP8.5. Thus, under low mitigation, the general drying pattern is
projected robustly by GCMs and their statistical and dynamic downscaling. Even in a
generally drier climate, extreme convective rainfall events are projected to plausibly increase
over the interior regions under low mitigation.
Under RCP4.5 (modest-high mitigation), a greater proportion of models continue to show
increased rainfall in some summer rainfall regions through to the end of the century. A fairly
large number of projections are indicative of generally wetter conditions over the central and
24
eastern interior regions, whilst the remaining projections remain indicative of generally drier
conditions. This, in combination with the significantly reduced warming that is projected for
southern Africa under high mitigation, emphasizes how important it is for South Africa to
strive for a (global) high mitigation pathway.
3.2.5 Gauteng climate change projections
3.2.5.1 Temperature changes
Over South Africa the strongest warming rate is projected for the interior including the
Gauteng region. Rates of warming are likely to be somewhat higher in spring than in the
other seasons. The following summarises the projections for three future time periods. In
addition, “Plume plots” for Gauteng Province for mean seasonal temperature, mean of daily
maximum temperature, and number of hot days with max temperatures >35°C, are provided
in Appendix 6a.
●
2016-2035: Most models regardless of emission/mitigation scenario agree that the
magnitude of warming will be approximately 1.0˚C, but possibly up to 2°C in the
north-western region bordering on Gauteng.
●
2046-2065: Model projections diverge, ranging from 1.0°C to 4.5°C depending on the
model and the mitigation scenario. Significant differences emerge between the
RCP4.5 and RC8.5 downscaling. For Gauteng, the projection is generally for 2-3°C
warming.
●
2080-2100: There is disagreement between models and emission/mitigation
scenarios: generally, 3°C to more than 4°C warming, while some models project
warming by as much as 6˚C for RCP8.5.
Temperature extreme events:
●
Increase in the number of very hot days (>35°C), especially in the second half of the
century
●
The number of nights where the temperature drops below zero degrees (i.e. "frost
days") may become very rare, probably disappearing entirely, by the end of the
century
25
Figures 3 and 4 serve to illustrate a selection of the results obtained from the climate change
modelling for the TNC. For the full set of maps, the reader is referred to the draft Chapter 3
of the TNC (DEA, 2016a).
Figure 3 CCAM dynamically downscaled projected changes in annual mean temperature under RCP
8.5 for the 2016-2035 period (left), the 2046-2065 period (middle) and the 2081-2099 period (right)
for three of the six climate models used (Source: draft TNC (DEA, 2016a))
26
Figure 4 CCAM dynamically downscaled changes in the number of very hot days under RCP8.5 for
the 2016-2035 period (left), the 2046-2065 period (middle) and the 2081-2099 period (right) for
three of the six climate models used (Source: draft TNC (DEA, 2016a))
3.2.5.2 Rainfall changes
Projected changes in rainfall totals and other rainfall-related statistics generated by global
climate models are more uncertain than temperature change projections. Rainfall variability
is very likely to increase, but the direction and amount of rainfall change cannot yet be
projected with confidence (DEA, 2016a).
27
The following is a general summary. “Plume plots” for Gauteng Province (and greater water
catchment area) for mean daily rainfall and total seasonal rainfall are provided in Appendix
6b.
●
2016-2035: Models show mixed, relatively small and insignificant changes in annual
total rainfall.
●
2046-2065: Many models show significant changes, with the majority of models
showing decreased rainfall, and a few showing increased rainfall in parts of the
summer rainfall region.
●
2080-2100: These patterns are strengthened, with the majority of models under
RCP8.5 showing significant drying and a minority of models showing increased
rainfall. Under RCP4.5 a greater proportion of models continue to show increased
rainfall through to the end of the century.
Rainfall extreme events:
●
It is difficult to identify clear changes in future statistics of extreme weather events.
●
Increases in intense convective rainfall events (e.g. an increase in lightning, hail and
flash floods) are likely.
●
It is likely that the changes in climate will interact with periodic shifts (e.g. ENSO
cycles) to drive changing patterns in extreme events, but it is not yet possible to
quantify the frequency and intensity of extreme events with a degree of confidence.
Figure 5 serves to illustrate a selection of the results obtained from the climate change
modelling for the TNC under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For the full set of maps, the reader
is referred to the draft Chapter 3 of the TNC (DEA, 2016a).
28
Figure 5 CCAM dynamically downscaled projected changes in annual total rainfall under the RCP 4.5
pathway (left) and the RCP8.5 pathway (right) for the 2080-2100 period. (Source: draft TNC (DEA,
2016a))
3.2.5.4 Scenario narratives for Gauteng
The following draft narratives have been formulated for Gauteng (CSAG, 2016), developed
for inclusion in the TNC. The idea of using comprehensive narratives to communicate
climate change projections comes out of the difficulty that decision makers and others have
found in interpreting more traditional climate projection information. Traditional modes of
communication have focused on spatial plots of change of various parameters with
uncertainty presented as ranges of quantiles or similar devices.
Climate narratives (or stories) describe potentially multiple evolutions of climate and climate
impact in a particular spatial and sometimes sectoral context. Aspects to consider when
applying these narratives include:
●
The narratives are informed by both GCM and statistically downscaled projections (see
Appendix 6a and 6b for details), as well as published analysis of historical observations from
1960-2012 (MacKellar et al., 2014). Both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 concentration pathway based
29
projections have been considered, but, given that differences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
largely emerge post 2040, the narratives are not explicitly associated with particular RCPs.
●
The narratives do indicate some tentative consideration of possible impacts, such as dam
water losses due to evaporation and heat impact on livestock, and make linkages to the
socio-economic context, such as urbanisation. However, it should be noted that these
impacts and linkages are very generalised and tentative, and are intended to contextualise
climate changes within the socio-ecological context, and trigger thinking around impacts and
linkages, rather than provide precise impacts analyses.
●
These narratives will be refined slightly for their final presentation in the Third National
Communication. This implies that while the key messages will stay the same, the final
versions might be slightly nuanced and provide some more detail.
●
VERY IMPORTANT: These narratives provide a plausible, but certainly not definitive,
story for a sub-set of possible futures within the spread of projections. However, the
actual future may fall anywhere in the projection spread, so none of these specific
narratives or their associated impacts should be seen as a prediction of the future.
Narrative 1: A warmer drier future
In this narrative for Gauteng the province continues to experience cycles of wet and dry
years, with dry years tending to be warmer than wet years. However, temperatures reach
2°C higher than the recent past sometime between 2040 and 2060, resulting in increased
frequency and duration of hot spells in summer. Increased subtropical high pressure belts
produce enhanced subsidence over the province, suppressing convective activity and
moisture transport into the region. The result is a reduced frequency and magnitude of
rainfall events, and generally reduced annual rainfall totals. However, convective events,
when they occur are more intense resulting in localised flooding and related damage.
An increase in temperature and in the duration and intensity of hot spells impacts on human
health, infrastructure, industrial activities, urban power demand for cooling, and the
efficiency of air cooled power stations. Increasing temperatures increase evaporation,
resulting in drier soils and increased losses from dams, particularly shallow farm dams
common in the province. Combined with generally reduced rainfall this means that even in
30
relatively normal rainfall years, crops experience greater water deficit, there is reduced water
supply for irrigation and human consumption and livestock is placed under strain. Higher
temperatures begin to impact some livestock as well. Dry years, combined with 2°C higher
temperatures, produce higher impacts in the province than the 2015/2016 drought.
Narrative 2: A warmer wetter future
In this narrative for Gauteng the province continues to experience cycles of wetter and drier
years, with drier years tending to be warmer than wetter years. However, temperatures
reach 2°C higher than the recent past sometime between 2040 and 2060, resulting in
increased frequency and duration of hot spells in summer. An intensified heat low, driving
enhanced moisture transport into the province, results in marginally increased annual rainfall
totals. Convective rainfall events, when they do occur are more intense resulting in localised
flooding and related damage.
An increase in temperatures and duration and intensity of hot spells impacts on human
health, infrastructure, industrial activities, urban power demand for cooling, and the
efficiency of air cooled power stations. Additionally, increasing temperatures increase
evaporation, resulting in drier soils and increased loss from dams, particularly shallow farm
dams. In wetter years, the increased rainfall offsets the evaporative losses to some degree
depending on the area. Even in relatively normal rainfall years, by current normals, crops
experience greater water deficit, there is reduced water supply for irrigation and human
consumption and livestock is placed under strain. Higher temperatures begin to impact some
livestock as well. Dry years, though less frequent than currently experienced, combined with
2°C higher temperatures, produce greater impacts in agriculture and human settlements in
the province than the 2015/2016 drought.
3.2.6 Climate change impacts on hydrology: recent results for Gauteng
The following section is based on recent modelling results for the LTAS program (DEA,
2013b; DEA, 2015a) and presents results for the impacts of climate change on hydrological
processes (evaporation, runoff and water yield) in South African hydrological systems. In
general, inter-annual variability of many drivers, including rainfall and streamflows, increase
across most parts of South Africa and in Gauteng. The changes in these drivers are
31
amplified over longer time frames and appear to accelerate in the second half of the century.
The key results for Gauteng are presented below.
Two future global emissions scenarios were used: an Unconstrained Emission Scenario
(UCE) where global policies to reduce emissions fail to materialize, and a Level 1
Stabilization Scenario (L1S) where aggressive emissions policies are successful. For each
emissions scenario, 367 possible climate futures were extracted from the Integrated Global
System Model (IGSM) developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These
climates are designed to capture the full range of plausible climate futures for South Africa
under both a “hotter, more carbonised” future (UCE), and a “warmer, less carbonised” future
(L1S). The 367 climates contain both “wetter” and “drier” futures.
Preliminary results (median of all models) for runoff using the Pitman modelling approach
suggest mild increases across Gauteng under an unconstrained greenhouse gas emissions
scenario (UCE emissions scenario) (Figure 6). If global emissions are constrained to
stabilise at 450 ppm CO2 equivalent, (L1S emissions scenario) the risk of extreme increases
are sharply reduced. It follows that the potential for flood events could increase, and this
should be considered in the design and maintenance of infrastructure including ecological
infrastructure such as wetlands. However, if all models are considered it appears that both
reduced and increased runoff are possible in Gauteng under different future scenarios (not
shown).
32
Figure 6 Median impact of climate change on the average annual catchment runoff for the period
2040–2050 relative to the base scenario average for 1990–2000 for all secondary catchments in
South Africa derived from a Hybrid Frequency Distribution (HFD) analysis of all possible global
circulation model (GCM) outputs (+6000 scenarios) for the unconstrained emissions scenario (UCE)
(Source: DEA, 2013b)
Under the UCE climate scenarios, the results suggest that climate change will have a limited
impact on security of water supply in the medium-term (by mid-century), largely as a result of
the high level of development and integration of the South Africa water supply infrastructure
and supply system (DEA, 2015a). In particular, the impacts on the main urban and industrial
centres in Gauteng appear to be minimal and could even be positive due to the integrated
nature of the Vaal system, the planned development of the Polohale Dam as part of the
Lesotho Highland Water Supply System and the fact that many of the global climate
scenarios show potential wetting over the eastern half of the country including Lesotho and
the Upper Vaal.
33
The average median impact of climate change on irrigation demand across secondary
catchments across South Africa is 6.4% ± 1.9% (DEA, 2015a). The largest impact of
mitigation (results for UCE versus L1S) is in terms of future irrigation demands which are
likely to increase under all scenarios, but more so under the UCE scenario due to higher
temperatures.
34
3.3 Climate Change Impacts, Risks and Vulnerability
This section presents the results of the participatory risk, impact and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop
held on 1 November 2016. For each sector, impacts drawn from the GCCRS and other relevant documents and impacts added by workshop
participants are presented in tables, with related ranking. Priority impacts with the highest number votes are highlighted in grey in each sector
table, which is preceded by a brief summary of these priorities.
3.3.1 Agriculture and Food Security
Ten out of a total of 16 impacts were prioritised (given votes of 6 and 5), one of which is derived from the GCCRS and nine from other
documents. Collectively these speak to the following climate risks: Rising temperatures and heat stress, changing rainfall patterns, low water
levels, and increases in extreme weather. These are expected to impact agriculture/food security through:
●
Increasing food prices and prices of agricultural inputs
●
Decreasing water quality for crops and livestock
●
Decreasing crop yields
●
Spatial shifts in crop suitability and yield
●
Heat stress in livestock
●
Decreases in productivity of grazing land (erosion, flooding, bush encroachment, fire)
35
●
Increased pressure on crops and livestock from pests and diseases
●
Destruction of crops, livestock and infrastructure as result of extreme events and fire
●
Decreased productivity of household food gardens as result of extreme weather and increased pressure of pests and diseases
Gaps, in terms of additional relevant impacts identified by workshop participants include: higher temperatures increase the energy demand in
the agricultural sector, reduction in shelf life of perishable products, and rainfall variability leads to a shorter growing season. [Note: longer
growing seasons are also a possibility, which could be beneficial to agriculture]
Table 4 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Agriculture and
Food Security sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Climate stresses (Gauteng/elsewhere) and disruptions of distribution due to weather
extremes lead to shortages of food
Climate stresses (Gauteng/elsewhere) lead to food price increases
Climate and other stresses reduce the area of productive agricultural land
Reduced rainfall and/or higher temperatures lead to reductions in available water but
increased crop demand; crop yields decrease
Low water levels, rising temperatures and floods cause decreasing water quality,
impacting on crop and livestock production and food safety
Rising temperatures and heat stress reduce vegetable, flower and grain yields and
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
3
1
4
H
S/M/L
5
3
1
1
6
4
H
M
S/M/L
S/M/L
3
1
4
H
S
4
1
5
M
S
5
1
6
H
S/M/L
36
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
quality
Rising temperatures and heat stress reduce beef, pig, dairy and poultry production,
including animal deaths
Grazing land becomes less productive through erosion caused by drying and
flooding, bush encroachment, and wildfires
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns lead to increased pressure on
crops and livestock from pests and diseases
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns lead to spatial changes in crop
suitability and yield (negative and positive possible impacts)
Extreme weather increases (storms, floods, droughts, hail) destroy crops and
livestock and agricultural infrastructure
Climate stresses in Gauteng and elsewhere lead to increasing prices of agricultural
inputs, including animal feed, thus increasing food prices
Heat stress, pests/diseases, lack of water reduce household food garden production
Increasing temperature results in increasing energy demand in agricultural sector
Reduction in shelf life of perishable products
Rainfall variability leads to shorter growing season 3
3
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
4
1
5
H
S/M/L
3
2
5
H
S
3
2
5
H
S/M/L
4
2
6
H
S/M/L
3
2
5
H
S/M/L
4
2
6
H
S/M/L
3
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
5
2
3
2
H
H
H
H
S/M/L
S
S
S
Rainfall variability is very likely to increase, but the direction and amount of rainfall change cannot yet be projected with confidence. Longer growing
seasons are also a possibility, which could be beneficial to agriculture. The impacts are crop-specific.
37
3.3.2 Biodiversity and ecosystems
Six out of a total of 21 impacts were prioritised (given votes of 19 and 13, the two highest), two of which are derived from the GCCRS and four
from other documents. Collectively these speak to the following climate risks: Changing rainfall, temperature and rising CO 2 concentrations,
and increases in extreme rainfall and temperature. These are expected to impact biodiversity and ecosystems through:
●
Negative interactions with urbanisation and increasing threats to water resources, urban biodiversity, and urban open spaces, and
increasing infestation of urban ecosystems with invasive alien plants
●
Spatial biome shifts (savanna expanding, grassland contracting) and resulting altered ecosystem services
●
Increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires
●
Increased soil erosion and loss of soil ecosystem services
●
Shifts in ecosystem pests and pathogens with higher risks of epidemics
A long list of gaps, in terms of additional relevant impacts, was identified by workshop participants. These included some pressures already
evident, such as trade-offs between food security and biodiversity, destruction of critical wetlands, impacts on ecotourism and economic
growth, and interactions with rural livelihoods depending on natural systems.
38
Table 5 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Biodiversity and
Ecosystems sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Urbanisation decreases natural resources and threatens degradation of water
resources, loss of biodiversity and open spaces which are essential components of
urban climate resilience (they reduce heat stress, provide for storm water infiltration,
and promote healthy lifestyles etc.)
Urbanisation contributes to alien plant species infestations which disturb urban
ecosystem services and reduce natural adaptive capabilities in urban areas
Changing rainfall, temperature and rising CO2 concentrations lead to spatial biome
shifts, with savanna expanding at the expense of grassland; this changes ecosystem
services (grazing, water runoff & infiltration etc.)
Changing rainfall and temperatures and resulting biome shifts lead to species losses;
this changes ecosystem services (pollination etc.)
Increasing woody biomass increases the frequency and intensity of wildfires
Increasing woody biomass reduces the area and productivity of grazing land
Extreme rainfall and temperature leads to increased soil erosion and loss of soil
ecosystem services (nutrient cycling, microbial function etc.)
Changing rainfall, temperature and extreme weather causes shifts in ecosystem
pests and pathogens and higher risks of epidemics
Loss of biodiversity due to wetland destruction and degradation
Prioritisation of food security leading to loss of biodiversity
Changes / loss of soil faunal microbes
Increased probability of ecosystems reaching tipping point
Loss of biodiversity could lead to decline of ecotourism and economic growth
Loss of ecosystems and biodiversity lead to the threat of the survival of human
settlements and livelihoods that depend on the natural systems (e.g. rural
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
17
2
19
H
S/M/L
11
2
13
H
S/M/L
11
2
13
H
S/M/L
10
2
12
M
M
11
9
2
2
13
11
L
M
M/L
M/L
11
2
13
H
S/M/L
11
2
13
M
S/M/L
3
3
3
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
2
5
H
H
M
M
M
S/M/L
S/M
S/M/L
M
S/M
2
0
2
M
M
39
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
communities)
Extreme weather events contribute to the destruction of biodiversity and the natural
"fighting systems" which result in the increase of disease vectors and their
distribution
Loss of biodiversity leads to loss of ecosystem goods and services
Loss of biodiversity threatens urban systems and livelihoods - social impacts
Extreme heat events like droughts destroy crops and grassland for farming,
threatening food availability and production
Extreme weather events like flooding can leach the soil of nutrients decreasing plant
growth and biodiversity mass
Alien plants absorb more water than indigenous plants affecting water security
especially during droughts because of reduction of groundwater availability 4
Ecosystem and biodiversity destruction leads to the decrease of trees and
destruction of plants affecting the carbon cycle5
4
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
1
0
1
H
S
4
3
0
0
4
3
H
H
S
S
2
0
2
M/H
/
2
0
2
H
S
2
0
2
M/H
S/M
1
0
1
M
M
And reductions in stream flow
This will be counteracted by the increase in woody plant growth driven by the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Together with the changing fire
regime, the overall outcome on trees as carbon sinks is still uncertain.
5
40
3.3.3 Water resources
Four out of a total of 17 impacts were prioritised (given votes of 10 and 9), three of which are derived from the GCCRS and one from other
documents. Collectively these speak to the following climate risks: More variable rainfall, more extremes in rainfall including intense rainfall
leading to flooding, and increasing temperatures and evaporation. These are expected to impact water resources through:
●
More frequent water supply shortfalls
●
Loss of wetlands and wetland functionality
●
Threats to water resources, property and lives through urban development on wetlands and in flood-prone areas
●
Reductions in water quality
●
Increased rainfall and increased intensity of rainfall exacerbates the problem of Acid Mine Drainage (AMD), and pollution and safety
risks associated with increased run off from tailing dams6
A long list of gaps was identified by workshop participants, although many were suggested adaptation responses with significant sustainable
development benefits, rather than impacts/vulnerabilities. These included the need to reduce water losses by climate proofing of ageing
infrastructure, addressing Acid Mine Drainage (further explored in Mining Sector) and better control of development of municipal infrastructure
and housing developments on and near wetlands and water courses.
6
These risks emerged from the inputs for the Mining sector (section 3.3.9) and are repeated here
41
Table 6 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Water Resources
sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
More variable rainfall and evaporative water losses from dams serving Gauteng,
coupled with rising urban, agricultural and industrial demand, lead to water supply
shortfalls
More variable rainfall changes the variability of groundwater supply
More variable rainfall and evaporative water losses from wetland areas lead to
wetland reductions and loss of wetland functionality (ecosystem services such as
flow regulation and water purification)
Urban settlements on wetlands and flood-prone areas threaten Gauteng water
resources, and increase risks of flooding to human life and property
Variability and extremes in rainfall, with increasing temperatures, lead to reductions
in water quality (e.g. lack of clean water for dilution of urban, agricultural and
industrial return flows and for sewage treatment, eutrophication, impacts of pollution
etc.)
More heavy rainfall events increases erosion and sedimentation of dams and other
water bodies
Extreme weather causes physical damage to water infrastructure thus disrupting
service delivery and threatening sewage spills
Ageing and insufficient built storm water systems can no longer cope with
increasingly heavy rainfall events, causing localised flooding
Natural storm water regulatory systems can no longer cope with increasingly heavy
rainfall events, causing localised flooding
Heavy rainfall exacerbates the Acid Mine Drainage problem
Water losses due to ageing infrastructure
Negative impacts of development of municipal infrastructure on and near wetlands
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
8
2
10
H
S
5
3
8
M
S/M
7
3
10
H
S
6
3
9
H
S
7
2
9
H
S
5
2
7
H
S/M
6
0
6
H
S
5
0
5
H
S
5
0
5
H
S
3
3
4
0
0
0
3
3
4
H
H
H
S
S
S
42
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
and water courses
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
43
3.3.4 Human settlements
Six out of a total of 14 impacts were prioritised (given votes of 8 and 7), two of which are derived from the GCCRS and four from other
documents. Collectively these speak to the following climate risks: Increasing extreme weather and general climate changes (shifting
temperature and rainfall regimes). These are expected to impact human settlements through:
●
Unplanned rapid urbanisation leading to greater food insecurity and loss of urban resilience
●
Disruptions to basic services
●
Disruptions to transport systems
●
Increasing food insecurity and economic vulnerability in rural settlements reliant on natural resources
Gaps, in terms of additional relevant impacts identified by workshop participants include: Extreme weather leads to displacement of people
within cities, impacts on service delivery can lead to political instability, and climate change will exacerbate health impacts in human
settlements.
44
Table 7 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Human Settlements
sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Unplanned rapid urbanisation leads to loss of agricultural land and food production
thus increasing food shortages and high prices
Unplanned rapid urbanisation leads to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services
which could contribute to urban resilience
Increasing extreme weather causes disruptions in basic services (water, sanitation,
waste removal, electricity) and telecommunications
Increasing extreme weather cause frequent disruptions to transport, thus affecting
workers, businesses/industries, health services, food distribution etc.
Increasing extreme weather (floods, storms, fires) impacts disproportionately on poor
communities with high socio-economic vulnerability
Climate change drives migrants and refugees into cities and can trigger conflict and
loss of human security
Climate changes (heats, floods, storms) disrupt informal trading and other vulnerable
urban livelihoods
An increase in flooding raises the risks of water source contamination
Smallholder and subsistence farmers with a high reliance on natural resources
experience increasing food insecurity as these are degraded (bush encroachment,
erosion, fires)
Economic vulnerability (rural employment, insecurity of land tenure, impacts on
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
5
3
8
H
S/M
5
3
8
H
S/M
4
3
7
M
S
4
3
7
L
S/M
4
2
6
H
S
4
2
6
M
S/M
4
2
6
M
S/M
4
2
6
M
S
5
2
7
M
S
5
2
7
M
S/M/L
45
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
commonages) increases
Extreme climate events such as flooding displaces people within cities
Failure to deliver basic services due to climate extreme events can lead to political
instability
Link between ill health / mortality and unsustainable human settlements
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
1
0
1
M
M
1
0
1
M
M
2
0
2
H
S
46
3.3.5 Transport and public infrastructure
Eight out of a total of 11 impacts were prioritised (given votes of 5), all of which are derived from other documents (not the GCCRS as this is an
additional sector). Collectively these speak to the following climate risks: Increasing extreme weather, including increasing heat stress, and
heavy rainfall and flooding. These are expected to impact transport and public infrastructure through:
●
Damage to public infrastructure: buildings, pipelines, roads, bridges, railway lines, electricity distribution, water distribution, storm water
drainage, sanitation, telecommunications
●
Traffic congestion, an increase in accidents, delays or cancellations in public transport
●
Heat stress damage to road surfaces and underground pipelines
●
Accelerated wear-and-tear to infrastructure designed for milder conditions
●
Increased sedimentation of water and sanitation infrastructure
●
Increasing costs of insurance for critical infrastructure
●
Impacts (both positive and negative) on the construction industry
Gaps, in terms of additional relevant impacts identified by workshop participants include: Vulnerability in the linkages between transport and
storm-water infrastructure especially during flooding events, and the impacts on commuters during heat waves and heavy downpours (need for
facilities)
47
Table 8 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Transport and
Public Infrastructure sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Extreme weather damages public infrastructure: buildings, pipelines, roads, bridges,
railway lines, electricity distribution, water distribution, storm water drainage,
sanitation, telecommunications
Extreme weather (floods, storms) lead to traffic congestion and an increase in
accidents
Increasing heat stress damages road surfaces and underground pipelines
Extreme weather causes delays or cancellations in public transport including major
airports
Climate changes accelerate the depreciation and wear-and-tear to infrastructure
designed for milder conditions
Heavy rainfall and flooding causes sedimentation of water supply and sanitation
infrastructure
The costs of insurance for critical infrastructure increases
Extreme weather has a direct (negative) impact on the construction industry, but can
indirectly benefit the industry through increasing repair and reconstruction needs
The vulnerability between transport infrastructure and storm-water infrastructure and
flooding; need for resilient infrastructure
Access to water and rest rooms for commuters especially during heatwaves and
heavy downpours
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
4
1
5
H
S
4
1
5
H
S
4
1
5
H
S/M
4
1
5
M
S/M
4
1
5
M
S/M
4
1
5
H
S
4
1
5
H
M
4
1
5
M
S/M
2
0
2
H
S
2
0
2
M/H
S
48
3.3.6 Human health
Three out of a total of 13 impacts were prioritised (given votes of 6 and 5), all of which are derived from other documents (not the GCCRS).
Collectively these speak to the general climate risks. These are expected to impact human health through:
●
Worsening of existing health problems relating to poor living conditions
●
Increased risk of water-borne diseases
●
Increased food and nutritional insecurity
Gaps, in terms of additional relevant impacts identified by workshop participants include: Increased risks of injury from extreme weather events
such as tornados.
Table 9 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Human Health
sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Climate changes worsen existing health problems relating to poor living conditions
(e.g. HIV, TB)
Climate changes worsen air quality and the risks of respiratory diseases
Climate changes worsen the risks of water-borne diseases e.g. cholera
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
5
0
5
H
S/M/L
4
5
0
0
4
5
H
H
S
M/L
49
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Climate changes worsen food and nutritional insecurity
Climate changes worsen vector- and rodent-borne diseases e.g. malaria
Heat stress impacts on vulnerable people (children, elderly, sick) and increases heatrelated deaths
Increasing risks of veld and shack fires lead to increasing incidence of burns, smoke
inhalation and possible death
Increasing risks of rural and urban flooding lead to rising levels of personal injury and
possible death
Stresses relating to the impacts of climate change have a negative effect on mental
health
Climate changes lead to higher risks relating to occupational health, e.g. heat stress
for labourers working outdoors
Increasing levels of ill health and death impact on workplace productivity and
economic growth
Increasing levels of ill health place an increasing personal and economic burden on
primary care-givers (often women)
Injury from extreme climatic event e.g. tornado
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
6
3
0
0
6
3
H
L/M/H
S/M/L
M
4
0
4
H
S
2
0
2
L
L
2
0
2
L/H
L
2
0
2
L
L
3
0
3
H
S/L
1
0
1
H
S/M/L
2
0
2
H
S
1
0
1
L
L
50
3.3.7 Disaster Risk Management
Three out of a total of 4 impacts were prioritised (given votes of 10 and 9), one of which is derived from the GCCRS, and two from other
documents. Collectively these speak to the risks of increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events. These are expected to impact
disaster risk management through:
●
Additional demands on the emergency response system
●
Disproportionate impacts on people and property in poor settlements where emergency response systems are already challenging
●
Impacts on tourism
There were no gaps, in terms of additional relevant climate risks and impacts identified by workshop participants.
51
Table 10 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Disaster Risk
Management sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Climate change leads to increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events such
as floods, storms, droughts, heat waves, fires and infectious disease outbreaks,
placing additional demands on the emergency response system
Increasing climate extremes have a disproportionate impact on poor settlements
through loss of basic services, physical harm, damage to property, and resettlement
and forced migration – emergency response systems in these areas are already
challenging
Increasing climate extremes negatively impact tourism into and through Gauteng,
through excessive heat, increased air pollution, and disrupted transport schedules
Increasing climate extremes increase the costs of insurance and investment
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
7
3
10
H
S
7
2
9
H
S
6
3
9
L
S/M
4
2
6
M
S/M
52
3.3.8 Energy
Four out of a total of 15 impacts were prioritised (given votes of 9 and 8), all of which are derived from other documents (not the GCCRS).
Collectively these speak to the following climate risks: general climate changes impacting the water sector, extreme weather events, and
increasing heat stress. These are expected to impact the energy sector through:
●
Increasing pressure on the supply of water to coal mines and power stations
●
Damage and disruption to power generation and distribution and mine operations
●
Reduced efficiency of power stations and electricity transmission
Gaps, in terms of additional relevant impacts identified by workshop participants include: Water scarcity impacting on hydro-energy and pump
storage generation methods, damage to transmission lines due to flooding, opportunities for renewable energy generation (higher
temperatures), and increasing energy demand due to warming.
53
Table 11 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Energy sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Climate change impacts on the water sector place pressure on the supply of water to
coal mines and power stations
Extreme weather events cause damage and disruption to power generation and
distribution, and coal mining operations
Increasing heat stress reduces the efficiency of power stations due to greater cooling
requirements, and water which is too warm for cooling purposes
Increasing heat stress decreases the efficiency of electricity transmission lines;
power lines sag or overheat
Water scarcity will impact traditional energy generation methods
The hydro-energy and pump storage generation methods will not be successful due
to water scarcity
Transmission lines are damaged due to flooding; decentralise transmission grid /
systems for maintenance purposes
Due to increase in temperatures, renewable energy generation is the viable option;
we can capitalise on the increasing temperatures
Increases in energy demand as a result of temperature increases
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
6
3
9
M
S/M/L
6
3
9
M
S/M/L
6
2
8
M
S/M/L
5
3
8
L/H
S/M/L
4
1
5
H
S/M/L
4
1
5
M
M/L
2
1
3
M
M
3
1
4
H
S/M/L
4
0
4
H
S/M/L
54
3.3.9 Mining
Two out of a total of six impacts were prioritised (given votes of 10 and 8), all of which are derived from other documents (not the GCCRS as
this is an additional sector). Collectively these speak to the following climate risks: general climate changes impacting the water sector, and
increasing risk of flooding. These are expected to impact mining through:
●
Increasing pressure on the supply of water to mines
●
Increasing risk of flooding and pollution from tailings dams
Gaps, in terms of additional relevant impacts identified by workshop participants include: Socio-economic impacts of increasing cost (as a result
of climate impacts) of doing business - job losses, unrest.
Substantial input to this sector was given by one participant, with concerns regarding the impacts of mining (particularly Acid Mine Drainage,
which is one of the critical issues in Gauteng (GCRO, 2015) on the water and biodiversity sectors, with implications for the quantity and quality
of the water resource and the functionality of natural systems. These impacts could be exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. The
increase in rainfall increases flooding of mine voids and consequent increase in the AMD. The increased intensity of rainfall increases runoff
from tailing dams with consequent increase in pollution and safety risks. This reduces the ability of other sectors to adapt and achieve
resilience. Some of the inputs (e.g. EIAs of mining applications should include climate change assessments to inform design and cost
calculations of mining developments) are adaptations and should be taken forward in Phases 3 and 4.
55
Table 12 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Mining sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Climate change impacts on the water sector place pressure on the supply of water to
mines
Extreme weather events cause damage and disruption to mining operations
Increasing heat stress directly impacts on mine workers and machinery
Increasing risk of flooding resulting in the escape of materials from tailings dams
Socio-economic impacts of increasing cost (as a result of climate impacts) of doing
business - job losses, unrest
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
8
2
10
H
S/M/L
5
6
7
2
1
1
7
7
8
L
M
H
S/M/L
S/M/L
S/M/L
2
0
2
H
S/M
56
3.3.10 Manufacturing and agro-processing
None of the eight impacts listed made the cut for prioritisation, which might be explained by the fact that there were no specialists (apart from
one participant) representing this sector in the workshop. However, the Gauteng Agro-processing Strategy (GADRD, 2015) specifically
identified support for this sector, particularly because of its job creation potential. More details are provided in section 3.6.2.
Table 13 Results of the participatory impacts and risk and vulnerability assessment activity of the Gauteng stakeholder workshop, for the Manufacturing
and Agro-Processing sector
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
Climate change impacts on the water sector place pressure on the supply of water
(quantity and quality) to factories
Extreme weather damages factories, disrupts the supply of electricity, water and
inputs, and reduces productivity
Increasing heat stress increases the depreciation and wear-and-tear to factory
equipment designed for milder conditions, and decreases the efficiency of equipment
Increasing heat stress raises the fire risk in factories
Climate change leads to the increasing cost of water, liquid fuels and electricity as
industrial inputs
Impacts of climate change on primary agricultural production increases the variability
of supply and quality of raw materials for agro-processing plants
Climate-induced shifts in production areas increase the costs of storage and
transport to agro-processing plants
Climate-induced shifts in production areas and climate-suitable agricultural produce
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
1
0
1
H
M
1
0
1
H
S
1
0
1
M
M
1
0
1
H
M
1
0
1
M
M
1
0
1
H
S
1
0
1
M
L
1
0
1
M
S
57
Climate Change Impacts: from Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy
2011 (black), other documents (green), and workshop participants (blue)
Impact
(crops, livestock) create opportunities for agro-processing plants
Project Workshop for Gauteng 1 November 2016
Prioritisation
ranking:
Government
Prioritisation
ranking: NonGovernment
Prioritisation
ranking:
Total
Risk
Time frame
58
3.4 Prioritisation and choice of key sectors
This section brings together all the impacts prioritised for each sector in section 3.3 above, and lists these according to the total number of
votes starting with the highest number of votes (19). However, these have been prioritised further, to only include the impacts with 6 votes or
more. This means that any impacts with 5 votes or less have been excluded. As a result a total of 30 priority impacts are listed below, from
across eight out of the original 10 sectors, namely: Agriculture and food security (4), Human health (1), Water resources (4), Biodiversity and
ecosystems (6), Disaster risk management (3), Energy (4), Mining (2) and Human settlements (6). This means that Transport and public
infrastructure (many receiving 5 votes), and Manufacturing and agro-processing have not made it through to the final prioritisation. This will be
picked up again in the Discussion.
Table 14 List of prioritised climate change impacts and risks across all sectors for the Gauteng, numbered in order of priority according to (1) total rank, and
(2) Risk
No.
1
2
3
4
Impact
Urbanisation decreases natural resources and threatens degradation of water
resources, loss of biodiversity and open spaces which are essential
components of urban climate resilience (they reduce heat stress, provide for
storm water infiltration, and promote healthy lifestyles etc.)
Urbanisation contributes to alien plant species infestations which disturb urban
ecosystem services and reduce natural adaptive capabilities in urban areas
Changing rainfall, temperature and rising CO2 concentrations lead to spatial
biome shifts, with savanna expanding at the expense of grassland; this
changes ecosystem services (grazing, water runoff & infiltration etc.)
Extreme rainfall and temperature leads to increased soil erosion and loss of
Sector
Prioritisation
ranking: Total
[from
workshop]
Risk
[from
workshop]
Time frame
[from
workshop]
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
19
H
S/M/L
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
13
H
S/M/L
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
13
H
S/M/L
Biodiversity and
13
H
S/M/L
59
No.
Impact
soil ecosystem services (nutrient cycling, microbial function etc.)
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Increasing woody biomass increases the frequency and intensity of wildfires
Changing rainfall, temperature and extreme weather causes shifts in
ecosystem pests and pathogens and higher risks of epidemics
More variable rainfall and evaporative water losses from dams serving
Gauteng, coupled with rising urban, agricultural and industrial demand, lead to
water supply shortfalls
More variable rainfall and evaporative water losses from wetland areas lead to
wetland reductions and loss of wetland functionality (ecosystem services such
as flow regulation and water purification)
Climate change leads to increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events
such as floods, storms, droughts, heat waves, fires and infectious disease
outbreaks, placing additional demands on the emergency response system
Climate change impacts on the water sector place pressure on the supply of
water to mines
Urban settlements on wetlands and flood-prone areas threaten Gauteng water
resources, and increase risks of flooding to human life and property
Variability and extremes in rainfall, with increasing temperatures, lead to
reductions in water quality (e.g. lack of clean water for dilution of urban,
agricultural and industrial return flows and for sewage treatment,
eutrophication, impacts of pollution etc.)
Increasing climate extremes have a disproportionate impact on poor
settlements through loss of basic services, physical harm, damage to property,
and resettlement and forced migration – emergency response systems in
these areas are already challenging
Increasing climate extremes negatively impact tourism into and through
Gauteng, through excessive heat, increased air pollution, and disrupted
transport schedules
Climate change impacts on the water sector place pressure on the supply of
Prioritisation
ranking: Total
[from
workshop]
Risk
[from
workshop]
Time frame
[from
workshop]
13
L
M/L
13
M
S/M/L
Water resources
10
H
S
Water resources
10
H
S
Disaster risk
management
10
H
S
Mining
10
H
S/M/L
Water resources
9
H
S
Water resources
9
H
S
Disaster risk
management
9
H
S
Disaster risk
management
9
L
S/M
Energy
9
M
S/M/L
Sector
ecosystems
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
60
No.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Impact
water to coal mines and power stations
Extreme weather events cause damage and disruption to power generation
and distribution, and coal mining operations
Unplanned rapid urbanisation leads to loss of agricultural land and food
production thus increasing food shortages and high prices
Unplanned rapid urbanisation leads to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem
services which could contribute to urban resilience
Increasing risk of flooding resulting in the escape of materials from tailings
dams
Increasing heat stress decreases the efficiency of electricity transmission lines;
power lines sag or overheat
Increasing heat stress reduces the efficiency of power stations due to greater
cooling requirements, and water which is too warm for cooling purposes
Increasing extreme weather cause frequent disruptions to transport, thus
affecting workers, businesses/industries, health services, food distribution etc.
Increasing extreme weather causes disruptions in basic services (water,
sanitation, waste removal, electricity) and telecommunications
Smallholder and subsistence farmers with a high reliance on natural resources
experience increasing food insecurity as these are degraded (bush
encroachment, erosion, fires)
Economic vulnerability (rural employment, insecurity of land tenure, impacts
on commonages) increases
Climate stresses (Gauteng/elsewhere) lead to food price increases
Rising temperatures and heat stress reduce vegetable, flower and grain yields
and quality
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns lead to spatial changes in
crop suitability and yield (negative and positive possible impacts)
Climate stresses in Gauteng and elsewhere lead to increasing prices of
agricultural inputs, including animal feed, thus increasing food prices
Sector
Prioritisation
ranking: Total
[from
workshop]
Risk
[from
workshop]
Time frame
[from
workshop]
Energy
9
M
S/M/L
Human settlements
8
H
S/M
Human settlements
8
H
S/M
Mining
8
H
S/M/L
Energy
8
H/L
S/M/L
Energy
8
M
S/M/L
Human settlements
7
L
S/M
Human settlements
7
M
S
Human settlements
7
M
S
Human settlements
7
M
S/M/L
6
H
S/M/L
6
H
S/M/L
6
H
S/M/L
6
H
S/M/L
Agriculture and food
security
Agriculture and food
security
Agriculture and food
security
Agriculture and food
security
61
No.
Impact
30
Climate changes worsen food and nutritional insecurity
Sector
Human health
Prioritisation
ranking: Total
[from
workshop]
6
Risk
[from
workshop]
Time frame
[from
workshop]
H
S/M/L
Appendix 7 lists the additional impacts added by participants. While these did not make it through to prioritisation, it is important to make a note
of these additional impacts, as these represent local understanding of climate change impacts. Any further work building on this report should
look at how these impacts can be explored further and better understood.
62
3.5 Vulnerability to climate change impacts
Gauteng is the smallest of the nine provinces of South Africa but has the highest population
at approximately 12.9 million people or 23.9% of the national population, as well as the
highest population density. The province is highly urbanised and industrialised and is the
economic centre of South Africa. Provincial GDP accounts for more than a third of national
GDP. The provincial economy is well diversified, covering finance/insurance/real estate,
manufacturing, services, and wholesale/trade, amongst others. The secondary and tertiary
industries dominate, but the agricultural sector also plays an important role, particularly in
the rural areas of Gauteng. The people of Gauteng have the highest per capita income level
in South Africa, but this figure masks a high level of inequality and social vulnerability in
certain parts.
The province is divided up into three metropolitan municipalities: City of Johannesburg (the
largest city in South Africa and one of the largest urban regions in the world), Ekurhuleni,
and City of Tshwane; and two district municipalities: West Rand and Sedibeng. Rapid rates
of urbanisation and population growth are placing great pressure on the natural resources,
especially on land (agricultural resources), water, air and biodiversity. Situated in the highlying Highveld region of South Africa, the province straddles two biomes: the grassland and
savanna biomes. It is landlocked and surrounded by four other provinces, sharing a number
of river systems with these provinces, generally as the upper watershed (e.g. Vaal,
Crocodile, Olifants).
While the above sections have largely dealt with impacts and risk as spatially and socially
homogenous, this section is aimed at touching on how vulnerability to such impacts differs
through the province through emphasis on the aspects of sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
Recognising the unique attributes of South African communities, and the central role of
social vulnerability in shaping susceptibility to risk, Le Roux et al. (2015) created a social
vulnerability index mapping social vulnerability across the country. The index consists of 14
indicators, all of which come out of ward level data from Statistic South Africa’s 2011 census,
and relate to aspects such as: household size; unemployment rates; education levels;
housing conditions; poverty levels; and access to basic services and transport. The most
vulnerable communities, as reflected in the resulting map below, were strongly correlated
with former “homeland” areas across the country. As reflected in the map below (Figure 7),
63
Gauteng was with the exception of a few patches largely found to be among the least
vulnerable provinces in the country based on Le Roux et al’s index.
Figure 7 Social vulnerability index of South Africa (from le Roux et al. 2015, p.14)
Taking a slightly different approach, Turpie and Visser (2013) focused on local
municipalities, and developed a vulnerability index applying the conceptual framing of
exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Table 15). Given the municipal focus, adaptive
capacity here includes aspects related to socio-economic capacity, as well as infrastructure,
financial capacity and governance. Climate change is explicitly addressed through
incorporation of exposure to change in future temperatures, rainfall and malaria exposure, as
well as to sea level rise impacts through areas below 5 meters above sea level.
64
Table 15 Parameters used in the local municipality vulnerability index (from chapter 4 in the
submission for the 2013/14 Division of Revenue, by Turpie and Visser p.139)
Again, Gauteng was found to be among the least vulnerable provinces, with most of its
municipalities being relatively resilient comparative to the most vulnerable parts of the
country (Figure 8). Parts of Gauteng were however found to be relatively sensitive, due to
high population densities and some areas of water stress, as well as exposure to change in
malaria exposure, change in temperatures and rainfall, flooding and fires. However this was
countered by very strong adaptive capacity, with some of the highest socio-economic
capacity and strongest governance in the country.
65
Figure 8 Index value of vulnerability to climate change for South African municipalities (from chapter
4 in the submission for the 2013/14 Division of Revenue, by Turpie and Visser p. 144)
Gauteng’s Metro’s and local municipalities generally scored low on the vulnerability index
(Table 16), largely due to its strong adaptive capacity. Neither of the metros nor any of the
local municipalities were found to be among the most vulnerable in the country, and only one
local municipality, Emfuleni local, scored as high as 4 (from a maximum score of 5).
However, as noted above, Gauteng does feature high levels of inequality, and pockets of
vulnerable communities are lost here through the focus on municipal averages. This is
important to note, in the sense that vulnerability differs within a municipality, among
communities, and even among households and to some extent between people within
households. It is therefore important to note the scale and indicators used for any
quantitative vulnerability assessment, as they may mask differential vulnerabilities
happening at other scales.
66
Table 16 Vulnerability scores for Municipalities in the Eastern Cape (from chapter 4 in the
submission for the 2013/14 Division of Revenue, by Turpie and Visser p.155-158)
Vulnerability scores for Gauteng
Local Municipalities and Metros
Metros
City of Ekurhuleni Metropolitan
City of Johannesburg Metropolitan
City of Tshwane Metropolitan
2
3
3
Sedibeng District
Emfuleni Local
Lesedi Local
Midvaal Local
4
1
2
West Rand District
Merafong City Local
Mogale City Local
Rand West City Local (previously
3
2
2/3
Randfontein and Westonaria)
Gauteng province may also be significantly exposed to climate change impacts that occur
elsewhere. For example, being a key destination for migrants from across the continent and
within South Africa, Gauteng is and will continue to be influenced by drought and crop failure
happening elsewhere in the country and on the continent and that drive migration towards
hubs like Gauteng (DEA, 2015d). Another example is the complex system that supplies
water to Gauteng, and which partially relies on water stemming from the Lesotho highlands,
well beyond the provincial boarders. As was found by the LTAS report on the Economics of
Adaptation (DEA, 2015a), potential wetting over the eastern parts of the country, including
Lesotho and the Upper Vaal River catchments, could thus have a positive impact on
Gauteng water supply.
Vulnerability in the Gauteng province needs to be understood in the context of differential
vulnerabilities at finer scales within what in the national context is considered to be one of
the less vulnerable provinces. It further needs to incorporate how climate change impacts
beyond its borders may directly or indirectly play into the vulnerability of the province.
67
3.6 Discussion
The GCCRS focused on six sectors, namely: Water, Urban development and infrastructure,
Natural resources and biodiversity, Health, Agriculture and food security, and Disaster risk
management. Through the process used for this project, an additional two sectors were
identified as requiring priority attention and should be considered in the revision of the
GCCRS. They are Energy and Mining. The sector Human Settlements takes over most of
what resorted under “Urban development and infrastructure”. However, Transport and
Infrastructure was marginal in term of votes received and the cut-off which was used for
prioritisation. We will nevertheless discuss this sector in section 3.6.1. Likewise, the sector
Manufacturing and agro-processing was not prioritised but will be discussed in section 3.6.2.
In the following discussion, we focus on three sectors identified by the Provincial Focal Point
as deserving attention within the scope of this project: infrastructure, agro-processing and
food security, and biodiversity and ecosystem services. We draw on recent national research
studies (primarily LTAS research reports) and other relevant studies published since 2011.
In particular, we assess opportunities which may arise for these sectors.
3.6.1 Infrastructure
From the literature used to prepare the workshop participatory activity, the following climate
risks were highlighted as having the most impact on transport and public infrastructure:
Increasing extreme weather, including increasing heat stress, and heavy rainfall and
flooding. There are thus strong linkages to Disaster Risk Management. These are expected
to impact the sector through:
•
Damage to public infrastructure
•
Traffic congestion, an increase in accidents, delays or cancellations in public
transport
•
Heat stress damage to road surfaces and underground pipelines
•
Accelerated wear-and-tear to infrastructure designed for milder conditions
•
Increased sedimentation of water and sanitation infrastructure
•
Increasing costs of insurance for critical infrastructure
68
•
Impacts (both positive and negative) on the construction industry
Gaps, in terms of additional relevant impacts identified by workshop participants include:
Vulnerability in the linkages between transport and storm-water infrastructure especially
during flooding events, and the impacts on commuters during heat waves and heavy
downpours (need for facilities).
A modelling study was conducted for the LTAS to provide a preliminary assessment of the
risks posed by climate change and increased extreme weather to public infrastructure (DEA,
2015a). A mixture of empirical and bio-physical modelling techniques were employed to give
a first indication of potential risks associated with floods, droughts, sediment loads and sea
level rise during the course of this century under a selection of available climate models. The
study linked changes in specific hazards, e.g. floods, droughts and sediment loads, to
specific infrastructure such as roads, dams, powerlines and bridges. We present a summary
of the results for increasing floods, which are expected across many parts of the country
including Gauteng.
Linking the potential increased flooding risk with the location of current key infrastructure
shows the potential for ‘high” or “very high” impacts on the current flood design standards for
more than 30% of bridges (almost 1700 road and rail bridges), 19% of dams (900 dams) and
29% of ESKOM transmission line crossings (900 powerline crossing) across the country by
mid-century.
The locations of infrastructure facing “high” or “very high” potential flood risk increases in the
next half century are presented in Figure 9 for the climate model (gf1) giving the largest flood
risk increases. The number of impacted bridges in terms of increasing flood risk in each
province is given in Figure 10.
69
Figure 9 Frequency distributions of extreme potential impacts on the design flood (1:100 year) for key infrastructure under four climate change models
(top, left) and the relative risk for individual structures for the climate model with the greatest general impact up to 2100 (gf1). Analysis is based on
potential changes in 1:100 year flood, with no consideration of hydraulic characteristics of individual structures. (Source: DEA, 2015c)
70
Figure 10 Number of bridges in each WMA in each risk class defined in terms of the maximum
relative increase in the 1:100 year design flood by 2050 for the gf1 climate model (Source: DEA,
2015c)
Figure 9 shows that Gauteng contains the highest concentration of dams and powerline
crossings at risk by significant potential design flood increases, in comparison with all other
provinces. Both Figures 9 and 10 show that Gauteng also contains a high concentration of
bridges at risk, with Crocodile (West) Marico WMA having the highest number of bridges
with significantly increased risk (“high” and “very high”), and Upper Vaal WMA also showing
high risks.
The proportion of severely threatened infrastructure nationally is projected to potentially
increase during the second half of the century from about 16% to about 22%. This poses a
very serious risk to society and the national economy. Since Gauteng holds the highest
number of such severely threatened infrastructure the Province should give urgent attention
to this threat and ensure that the revised GCCRS is based on further more detailed
assessment of the specific threats and required actions at various time scales in the future.
The fact that stakeholders consulted during this project did not rank the threat to
infrastructure as highly as threats to other sectors should not preclude further discussion at
71
future workshops. It is also noteworthy that the existing GCCRS focuses on the impacts of
urbanisation under “Urban development and infrastructure” but does not speak to the direct
threats to infrastructure. This should be re-assessed in the planned revision in 2017 of the
GCCRS.
The opportunity for Gauteng lies in the cost-benefit of re-assessing and revising
infrastructural design standards and maintenance schedules on the basis of the projected
shifts in risk. Most public infrastructure is designed and costed to serve its function over
timescales of decades. The cost of inaction could greatly outweigh the cost of adaptation
over these time scales. A good starting point would be the fine-scale mapping of
infrastructure at risk of flooding and other extreme weather, and prioritisation of adaptation
needs.
3.6.2 Agro-processing and food security
The Gauteng stakeholders who participated in the provincial workshop did not give this
sector any attention, apart from one participant. The reasons for this are unclear, but it could
be assumed that there is a weak understanding of the climate risks and impact chains which
could affect the sector in future. Alternatively, there may exist an opinion that the industries
(private sector) should deal with the climate change threat themselves via market responses.
An indirect linkage was, however, established to the energy sector: “increasing energy
demand due to warming” (e.g. cooling of fresh produce, factories and storage facilities).
However, insights have been gained through the stakeholder workshop results from Eastern
Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. In the Eastern Cape, this sector was eventually prioritised based
on the following two impacts:
●
Increased water supply risk: risk of water shut down or gradual curtailment of
industries relying on bulk water supply, water limitations to economic growth
potential, increased cost of water
●
Changes in the quality of water supplied to industry
In KwaZulu-Natal, five impacts in this sector were initially prioritised but did not make the cut
for the final list. These were:
●
Changes in supply and quality of raw materials from agriculture and forestry
72
●
Water scarcity and pressure on the water supply and quality to factories
●
Increasing cost of inputs (water, liquid fuels, energy)
●
Damage to and disruption of factory operations from extreme weather
●
Increased depreciation and wear-and-tear to factory equipment and decreased
efficiency of equipment due to extreme temperatures
A sixth “impact” was also prioritised which spoke to the opportunities which may arise for the
sector because of climate change: “Climate-induced shifts in production areas and climatesuitable agricultural produce, and the need for better storage and value add, create
opportunities for agro-processing”.
The international and national literature has until very recently been almost silent on the
climate change risks and impacts on manufacturing and specifically agro-processing. A few
studies driven by Non-Government Organisations (e.g. WWF) have started to assess the
risks to the food system and to food chain actors (e.g. retailers) of climate change impacts
on agricultural production and other components of the food value chain (Midgley, 2016a;
Midgley, 2016b; Midgley 2016c). Scholtz and von Bormann (2016) stated that “Increasingly
extreme and erratic weather events cause millions of Rand of damage throughout the agrifood value chain”. Gauteng has a vibrant agro-processing industry which sources a
proportion of its raw material from within the province. Negative impacts of climate change
on market gardening (high value vegetables and flowers) and livestock sectors (70% of
provincial agricultural economy, particularly poultry, pigs and beef) would have an impact on
these factories. Raw inputs would be increasingly imported from further afield which will
escalate costs to the processor and the consumer. Increasing food prices are a key driver of
persistent food insecurity.
Gauteng depends heavily on food imports from other provinces and other countries. Greater
local production and processing provides a route towards keeping food prices down while
helping to drive the economy and job creation. For this reason, the government of South
Africa and all provinces (see Gauteng Agro-processing Strategy: GDARD, 2015) have
embarked on a strong drive to develop agro-processing. However, the potential constraints
on this posed by climate change, via access to natural resources and energy, and via direct
and secondary impacts on production, have not been considered. The SmartAgri Plan
(WCDOA & WCDEADP, 2016) has identified “Climate-proofing the growth of agri-processing
73
in the Western Cape” as one of its six Priority Projects for climate change response in the
agricultural sector.
On the other hand, climate change may also generate opportunities for agro-processing.
These will depend on the shifts occurring in production, driven by a strengthening of existing
agricultural commodities in Gauteng through:
●
increased yield, greater spatial suitability or capitalisation by farmers on severe
impacts elsewhere in the production region with resulting high prices; or
●
the introduction of new commodities with value add potential (e.g. sorghum)
Since sorghum (Sorghum bicolour) is a relatively drought resistant crop which can tolerate
erratic rainfall, more so than maize (DEA, 2013c), it is likely to become an increasingly viable
option for farmers in Gauteng, in some cases replacing maize. The opportunity to shift to
sorghum production was specifically mentioned in the recently developed Sedibeng District
Municipality Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Response Plan Draft Version 2
(October 2016). This would drive a demand for processing capacity in the province.
The expectation of increasing lengths of wet spells, a reduction in the number of frost days,
changes in the daily temperature range, and changes in the duration of the growth season,
will inter alia all impact on the suitability of crops that can be grown in Gauteng. Research in
this area is required, highlighting crops which may become less viable in future, as well as
existing and new crops which may provide greater opportunities for farmers and the value
chain. Such research should go beyond crop modelling under climate scenarios to include
integrated economic considerations (e.g. DEA, 2015e) and the whole food chain.
Agro-processing can also be seen as one solution to the expected reduction in shelf life of
perishable products during heat waves (an additional impact pointed out by one workshop
participant).
The LTAS provided a valuable study of the integrated perspective of how the agricultural and
food system could be affected under various climate change scenarios from an economic
and social perspective (DEA, 2015e). The focus was both on the farmers’ decision to
produce and thus employ labour, the question of food access (one aspect of food security).
The study provides some interesting insights into the impact of climate change on South
African maize production towards 2030. Farmers are continually adapting by reducing
74
exposure to climate risk, and by responding to market signals. This will continue and will
help to drive the shifts in agriculture which will seek to preserve a high level of food
production and opportunities along the value chain. However, it is important that smallholder
farmers and those with less access to resources and information will need support to benefit
from positive adaptive shifts in the sector.
This sector should be re-evaluated at the second workshop, and during the process to revise
the GCCRS in 2017.
3.6.3 Biodiversity and ecosystem services
Gauteng contains two of South Africa’s biomes: Savanna and Grassland. The natural
resources base and the productive potential of agriculture, and the closely dependent rural
and urban livelihoods supported by them, are strongly driven by the biomes’ biodiversity and
ecosystem structure and function. Climate change, and thus changes in climate envelopes
for biomes, are expected to lead to fundamental spatial shifts and changes in
structure/function in the biomes found in Gauteng (Driver et al., 2012; DEA, 2015b). This is
worsened by non-climatic drivers such as land-use change and invasions by alien species.
Such geographic range changes in biomes would cause cascading effects through
ecosystems, and substantially alter the benefits people derive from ecosystems, such as
clean water, wood products and food. Ultimately, such changes would affect the climate
change resilience and adaptive capacity of rural and urban communities.
Biome shifts will change the area and productivity of grazing lands and the food and animal
products which can be produced from livestock. Critically, biome shifts will alter the
hydrological properties of catchments (especially high altitude grasslands), thus altering
water evaporation, runoff, infiltration, and supply for human settlements. Pest and disease
complexes will undergo shifts, with new threats emerging in some areas for humans and
livestock. Fire regimes will undergo substantial changes as the woody biomass responds
and alters the fuel load. Species ranges will expand or contract, and some species could
become extinct. The province’s ecotourism industry could thus be severely impacted.
A study was conducted as part of LTAS, using a biome envelope modelling approach to
assess impacts of climate change (DEA, 2013d). Based on a comparison of the threatened
status and protection levels of each of South Africa’s nine biomes, the Grassland biome was
75
identified as the second highest priority in terms of vulnerability to land-use change, based
on its status as endangered and with low protected area representation.
Table 17 summarises the most important climate-related risks to the biomes found in
Gauteng.
Table 17 Climate risks for each of the biomes found in Gauteng, priority action and cross-cutting
sectors impacted (adapted from TNC which was based on DEA, 2013d and DEA, 2015b)
Priority
Action
Biome
Highest

Grassland



Medium


Savanna

7
Cross-sector
impacts
Climate risk
Increased temperature and CO2 will result in the
invasion of savanna-like condition and major
shrinkage of the spatial area of the biome
Increased fire intensity and likely mega fires7
Increased temperature may limit livestock, and in
particular dairy cattle
More intense rainfall especially if coupled with
overgrazing will intensify erosion
Extremely high temperatures will make domestic
livestock challenging and may lead to a sudden
switch to other nature based ventures
More summer rain and rising CO2 will lead to an
increase in bush encroachment and expansion of
the savannah into grassland and Indian Ocean
Coastal Belt biomes
Rising CO2 will also lead to high risk of alien woody
plant invasion particularly in highly degraded
rangelands
Agriculture



Tourism
Water
Game farming
Also: Shift in species due to niche changes; breakdown in ecosystem functions due changes in
species-species and species-environment interactions; shifting of species migration/ extinction;
changing compositional, functional and structural diversity of the environment e.g. perennial rivers
becoming seasonal. (Added by Marc Leroy, GDARD)
76
Figure 11 Predictions of biome climate envelopes under difference climate scenarios by 2050 as
described by Driver et al. (2012). The future scenario is based on 15 downscaled global circulation
models and the A2 emissions scenario.
For Gauteng, a critical outcome of the modelling study is the negative impact on the
Grassland biome (Figure 11). The Grassland biome was identified as “most threatened” in
terms of vulnerability to climate change (DEA, 2013d). Large portions of the biome are prone
to replacement by savannah and vegetation in Gauteng and elsewhere. The projected wetter
and drier cycles, and possible reductions in rainfall, as well as the anticipated increases in
temperatures will negatively impact the grassland biome, especially at higher altitudes. The
biome is projected to shrink, especially under the high mitigation scenario, and replaced
largely by Savanna, particularly the more arid savanna types.
As an example of secondary impacts of climate change which help to drive the tertiary
impacts such as biome shifts, the role of changing fire regimes should be assessed. The role
of fire in driving landscape level productivity and ecosystem function, and the expected
changes in fire regime across South Africa, are widely acknowledged in all climate change
studies. These changes will interact with spatial shifts in biomes, in ways not yet well
understood (DAFF, 2015; DEA 2015b; DEA, 2016b). In the Gauteng agricultural sector,
where rangeland-based livestock production is an important sub-sector and a critical
77
component of livelihoods, losses of grazing land, and losses of livestock and infrastructure
from fires are likely to increase under climate change, with serious local impacts.
Areas of core service delivery by the Gauteng Government could be substantially affected by
biome shifts and resulting impacts on conservation and ecotourism within the biodiversity
sector, as well as the water, agriculture, health and disaster management sectors. These are
likely to include food security programmes, provision of water and sanitation services,
shifting demands on health infrastructure and services as well as disaster management
systems, and the need to shift investment in infrastructure and economic development in line
with the changes in the economic sectors.
It will be important to identify how some of these changes can become economic and
development opportunities. For example, some areas may become more productive for
livestock farming if well managed, and increasing woody biomass could be harnessed for
energy generation. The potential for Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is great, particularly
in nature reserves, protected areas and recently declared Magaliesburg Biosphere. This
needs to be picked up in Phase 3 and Phase 4 of this project, and in future revisions of the
GCCRS.
3.6.4 Opportunities8
With appropriate adaptation efforts, risks due to climate change can become opportunities.
Examples raised in the report thus far relate to crop choices, the need to more storage
facilities and value added for food, Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), and linkages with
renewable energy generation (co-benefits with carbon emissions reductions). The
opportunities for strengthening ecotourism should also be explored since Gauteng already
attracts large numbers of visitors, and both the Gauteng Environmental Management
Framework and the Gauteng Spatial Development Framework have identified protected
areas suitable for ecotourism.
Relatively inexpensive options such as rainwater harvesting can help to make household
food gardens more productive, thus mitigating the possible risks of more erratic rainfall.
There are also opportunities for the province linked to the possibility of unchanged or
8
This is not a complete assessment of opportunities but rather a summary of suggestions
made during the research process. Further research and discussion is required.
78
increased annual rainfall, and because of its robust water supply system the province may
experience less negative impacts than other areas of the country. With adaptation, primary
production of ecosystems and agriculture could remain good and water resources should not
become generally limiting.
Adaptation should aim to both reduce risk and increase resilience, and seize opportunities
which may arise for the province. The opportunities that support job creation such as
renewable energy, ecotourism and agro-processing should be further investigated.
3.7 Limitation of the update and research gaps
When applying the findings coming out of this piece of work it is important to first
acknowledge some of the limitations of the work, as well as the understanding and research
gaps that should ideally be addressed and emphasised further in future work.
Firstly, limitations of the study, largely due to the time and capacity constraint of the work,
include:
●
The study did not have scope for new primary research, and was as such limited to
existing research and information;
●
The literature on which the work is based being limited a few central documents,
such as LTAS and the draft TNC;
●
While emphasis on stakeholder participation is considered strength, having one day
only of engagement with stakeholders meant that there was limited time to
collectively build understanding of risk and vulnerability. This further meant that the
weight that has been given to the voting and risk ranking exercise at the workshop is
to some extent out of proportion, and should be considered in that context.
●
While the workshop invitation list was aimed at reaching a broad spectrum of
stakeholders, representing a diversity of sectors and governmental and nongovernmental bodies, the 37 workshop participants can not been seen as
encapsulating a fully representative and evenly distributed view across the sectors
addressed. This further weakened the results from the voting and risk ranking
process.
79
The following gaps were identified as the work here progressed, however were not
addressed due to time and capacity constraints. These are thus specific gaps can be
considered as further limitations to this piece of work, and that should be addressed in future
work:
●
higher temperatures increase the energy demand in other sectors, thus placing
additional strain on energy generation and distribution systems
●
difficult trade-offs between agriculture, biodiversity and urbanisation (i.e. land use
decisions) need to be better understood and the rationale and criteria for decisionmaking processes re-assessed; the destruction of wetlands needs to become a
priority challenge
●
increased pressure on the social fabric of communities due to high rates of inmigration and displacement, some of which can be attributed to climatic stresses
within and outside the province
●
the reasons for stakeholder perceptions which do not prioritise certain sensitive
sectors, or the lack of participation in stakeholder workshops by some sectors (see
Annex 2), needs to be better understood
●
interactions between climate change, air quality and human health need to be better
captured in the context of a highly urbanised province
●
interactions between climate change and mining require more focus and responses
●
the business/financial and industrial sector needs to get involved in discussions and
climate change response planning processes
●
High resolution vulnerability mapping (looking mainly at adaptive capacity at ward
level) is needed at municipal scale in order to better understand fine-scale
vulnerability in the urban areas
3.8 Review other provincial and sectoral policies and strategies
This review was requested by the Gauteng Focal Point to assess whether the
mainstreaming of climate change risks, impacts and vulnerabilities (in the context of
adaptation) into provincial strategies, frameworks and plans is progressing, and to make
80
recommendations for this process. Table 18 shows the documents which were used for the
assessment.
Table 18 Gauteng provincial documents used for the assessment of climate change adaptation
mainstreaming
No
.
Type of document
Name of document
Theme
1
Gauteng strategy
The Gauteng Agricultural Development
Strategy (GADS) (2006)
2
Gauteng plan
Gauteng 20 Year Food Security Plan
3
Gauteng strategy
Agriculture and food
security
Agriculture and food
security
Agriculture and food
security
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
Biodiversity and
ecosystems
4
5
6
7
8
Gauteng Status
Quo Report
Gauteng Status
Quo Report
Gauteng
framework
Gauteng
framework
Gauteng
framework
9
Gauteng strategy
10
Gauteng plan
11
Gauteng strategy
12
Gauteng strategy
Gauteng Agro-processing Strategy
(2015)
State of Green Infrastructure in the
Gauteng City-Region (2013)
Gauteng State of Environment Report
(2011)
Gauteng Provincial Environmental
Management Framework (2014)
Gauteng Spatial Development
Framework 2030
Gauteng City Region Economic
Development Framework Summary
A strategy for a developmental green
economy for Gauteng (2010)
Gauteng City Region Integrated
Infrastructure Master Plan (GCR IIMP)
2030
Gauteng Comprehensive Rural
Development Strategy (2010)
Gauteng Social Development Strategy
(2006)
Development planning
Economic development
Green economy
Infrastructure
Rural Development
Social development
3.8.1 Gauteng Agricultural Development Strategy (GADS) (2006)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
This document is 10 years old and preceded the GCCRS and most national climate change
planning documents. Climate change is limited to a brief mention under research, technology
and innovation needs.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
81
Climate change focus is especially important for farmer support services aimed at resourcepoor African and female farmers, since they would have low adaptive capacity. Areas of
sensitivity include the fluctuating and generally increasing price of agricultural inputs (e.g.
feed for livestock), lack of access to sufficient good quality water, lack of access to climateresilient crop varieties, loss of productivity of grazing land, and shifting pests and diseases.
The document refers to “climate risk management strategies” and “climate-appropriate
agricultural practices” but does not specify climate change impacts.
Recommendation:
The next revision of the GADS should place a key focus on climate change adaptation and
how to mainstream CCA into all programmes. Linkages must be made between the revised
GCCRS and the revision of the GADS.
3.8.2 Gauteng 20 Year Food Security Plan (2013)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
The Plan gives climate change considerable prominence through Pillar 6: Climate Smart
Agriculture and Water Management (p.42). Recent FAO and World Bank documents on CSA
are referenced and are suitable to guide best practice.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
Climate Smart Agriculture encompasses a response to all impacts identified and prioritised
in 3.3.1.
Recommendation:
The Plan does not go into details and refers to a task team “to advise”. Linkages should be
made between such a task team and the revision of the GCCRS, as well as the development
and implementation of a climate change adaptation action plan (agriculture components).
3.8.3 Gauteng Agro-processing Strategy (2015)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
Climate change is not mentioned, neither is existing climate risk.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
A number of identified risks and impacts (section 3.3.1) can exert impacts through the food
value chain, including increasing prices of agricultural inputs (e.g. through volatility),
82
decreasing water quality and assurance of supply, higher energy demand, supply and quality
of raw materials, shifts in production region, and destruction of infrastructure. However,
climate change can also lead to opportunities in agro-processing. See also section 3.6.2.
Recommendation:
A short, medium and long term climate change “risk lens” should be applied to planned
investments in agro-processing. “Emerging” and new crops suited to the future climate
should be investigated for their potential to be established and linked to processing and
other value add initiatives. Consider the inclusion of this topic in the revised GCCRS.
3.8.4 State of Green Infrastructure in the Gauteng City-Region (2013)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
The report documents some of the linkages between climate change and green
infrastructure, with reference primarily to (i) the mitigation (carbon uptake) benefits of trees
and forests; (ii) the mitigation (air pollution) benefits of trees and open urban spaces; (iii) the
growth of water wise gardening; (iv) rehabilitation of wetlands; (v) conservation and
management of natural drainage channels and river banks for managing flooding and storm
water. Reference is made to the Let’s Respond Climate Change Toolkit which describes the
value of ecosystem functions to local communities.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
An important prioritised risk/impact (section 3.3.2) is addressed: Negative interactions with
urbanisation and increasing threats to water resources, urban biodiversity, and urban open
spaces, and increasing infestation of urban ecosystems with invasive alien plants. It also
addresses “Loss of wetlands and wetland functionality” and
“Threats
to
water
resources, property and lives through urban development on wetlands and in flood-prone
areas” in section 3.3.3., as well as “Negative interactions with unplanned rapid urbanisation
leading to greater food insecurity and loss of urban resilience” in section 3.3.4.
Recommendation:
The report acknowledges that the links made between green infrastructure and climate
change adaptation and mitigation are not well researched and documented. A strong
Monitoring and Evaluation approach needs to be undertaken to provide the evidence base
for the interventions and their benefits.
83
3.8.5 Gauteng State of Environment Report (2011)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
There is frequent reference to CC and one indicator (Annual temperature deviation) under
“Atmosphere” which speaks directly to CC. CC is identified as an emerging macro-economic
challenge.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
Some links are made between CC and sectors (agriculture, biodiversity) but at a high level.
Recommendation:
The indicator should be changed to show temperature change (anomaly) since the
conventionally used baseline (usually around 1990), to align with international and national
reporting. The indicators should also be aligned with new UN Sustainable Development
Goals and targets (UN, 2015). This will make the result comparable with other parts of SA
and the world. These Climate Change indicators should be related to the rest of the report
since it affects all other sectors.
3.8.6 Gauteng Provincial Environmental Management Framework (2014)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
Section 6 (pages 22-23) is devoted to a summary of CC and its impacts on three key
sectors: biodiversity, hydrology and agriculture.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
Linkages are made with impacts on the three sectors.
Recommendation:
Make linkages with impacts on air pollution, mining and disaster risk management. Overlay
the lens of future climate change by incorporating a spatial view of climate change
vulnerability across the province. Indicate more clearly how CCA considerations inform the
Framework.
3.8.7 Gauteng Spatial Development Framework 2030
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
84
Climate change is mentioned under 5.1 “Urban Development, the Environment and
Environmental Health” in the context of water supply and 6.7 “Solid waste”.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
No alignment.
Recommendation:
Include a much more substantial focus on climate change vulnerability of natural and human
systems which goes beyond water supply; overlay the lens of future climate change by
incorporating a spatial view of climate change vulnerability across the province e.g. changing
1:100 year flood lines and wetland degradation. Indicate more clearly how CCA
considerations inform the Framework.
3.8.8 Gauteng City Region Economic Development Framework Summary
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
Climate change is not mentioned.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
All prioritised climate change risks and impacts could affect economic development through
manufacturing (especially food and beverage), services (tourism and transportation) and the
cross-cutting focus areas of infrastructure and the township economy.
Recommendation:
Raise awareness of the linkages between climate change and economic development
through key impacts chains and evidence in support of significant damages or opportunities.
3.8.9 A strategy for a developmental green economy for Gauteng (2010)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
Climate change underlies the green economy and as such plays an important role in the
strategy. The recommendations relate both to mitigation / low carbon growth, and to
adaptation, as well as the need for increased public awareness. CC is presented as a core
macro-economic challenge (via its impacts on food, energy, water insecurity, and
poverty/inequality). Appendix B in the strategy presents a write-up of CC in the context of the
economic crisis and ecological limits. Proposed initiative 7.1 on Local food production has a
strong CC focus.
85
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
The developmental Green Economy addresses many CC impacts including those in water,
agriculture and food security, energy, and human settlements.
Recommendation:
Implementation of the strategy (or future revision) should highlight the linkages with relevant
parts of the GCCRS – and the revision of the GCCRS should identify synergies with the
developmental green economy strategy in order to optimise resources where possible.
3.8.10 Gauteng City Region Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (GCR IIMP)
2030
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
The role of CC in future water surety and the placement of waste facilities (e.g. flood risk)
are mentioned. Other mentions relate to electricity and transport infrastructure but in a
mitigation context. However, there is no further integration or analysis.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
Minimal alignment with water supply and flooding risks.
Recommendation:
Raise awareness of the linkages between climate change and integrated infrastructure
planning through key impacts chains and evidence in support of significant damages or
opportunities.
3.8.11 Gauteng Comprehensive Rural Development Strategy (2010)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
This document is 6 years old and preceded the GCCRS and the NCCRS. Mention of climate
change is insignificant.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
All impacts prioritised for Agriculture and food security, Biodiversity and ecosystems, Water
resources, Human settlements (rural), Transport and infrastructure (rural), and Disaster risk
management are relevant to rural development.
86
Recommendation:
The next revision of the GCRDS should place a key focus on climate change adaptation and
how to mainstream CCA into all programmes. Linkages must be made between the revised
GCCRS and the revision of the GCRDS.
3.8.12 Gauteng Social Development Strategy (2006)
Inclusion of climate change adaptation considerations:
This document is 6 years old and preceded the GCCRS and the NCCRS. No mention is
made of climate change.
Alignment with climate change risks and impacts and vulnerabilities identified in 3.3:
CC impacts are cross-cutting to social development, but in particular aspects around
resource-based local economic development, primary health services, and the generally
higher vulnerability to climate shocks experienced by some individuals, households and
communities.
Recommendation:
The next revision of the GSDS should place an appropriate focus on climate change
adaptation and how to mainstream CCA into all programmes. Linkages must be made
between the revised GCCRS and the revision of the GSDS.
3.8.13 General discussion
The review showed that there is a wide range or integration of climate change into provincial
planning documentation. The earliest documents (2006-2010) generally show a low level of
integration (e.g. agricultural development, rural development, social development). The most
recent documents show a very high level of integration in sectors which are known to be
highly vulnerable (e.g. food security). Sectors or sub-sectors where the linkages to climate
change are not well studied or understood fare much worse, despite their recent
development (e.g. agro-processing, economic development, infrastructure planning). Efforts
should continue to mainstream climate change into all planning processes with clarity on the
impact pathways. Improved monitoring and analysis should provide additional evidence for
this approach.
87
4. Recommendations for Phase 3
The following recommendations are made for the next phase (Phase 3), where the
GCCRS will be revised and updated.
1. The GCCRS should continue to take a sectoral approach to facilitate mainstreaming
into line departments and local government programmes.
2. The most up-to-date climate change projections indicate that both drying and wetting
scenarios are possible across the Province, given the current uncertainty in the
modelling, but there is a greater likelihood of drying in the longer term. Irrespective of
the direction of annual rainfall change, it is likely that extreme rainfall events linked to
more severe convective summer thunderstorms will increase. The GCCRS and
Action Plan should speak to these model results.
3. The updated Climate Change Action Plan (Phase 4 of this project) (although not
necessarily the updated GCCRS) should be spatially specific, where possible, and
speak to the most vulnerable systems at local scale where adaptive capacity is most
lacking and sensitivities are high.
4. The following sectors should be included as a priority in the GCCRS: Water
resources, Agriculture and food security, Biodiversity and ecosystems, Human
health, Disaster risk management, Human settlements, Energy and Mining. These
were identified based on both existing risk and vulnerability understanding and
stakeholder inputs.
5. The sectors Transport and infrastructure, and Manufacturing and agro-processing
should be further discussed at the second workshop and information presented in
this report should be shared with stakeholders prior to workshop. More effort should
be made to get specialists from these sectors to attend the workshop.
6. Additional risks, impacts and vulnerabilities added by the workshop participants
require further study and discussion. We propose that the second workshop should
aim to provide sufficient clarity to that they can potentially be included in the Action
Plan developed in Phase 4.
88
7. There is further need to prioritise and simplify the strategic response and embed
these responses in the existing work programmes, priorities and budgets of provincial
line departments and municipalities. However, at the same time, strengthened and
new partnerships between government, NGOs, CBOs and the private sector must be
part of the updated strategy and action plan to achieve the required outcomes at a
more integrated systemic (and landscape) level.
8. The critical linkages and flows as well as shared vulnerabilities between the rural and
urban economic and social systems should be highly acknowledged and
incorporated into climate change response planning.
9. There are also opportunities for the province linked to the possibility of unchanged or
increased annual rainfall, and because of its robust water supply system the province
may experience less negative impacts than other areas of the country. With
adaptation, primary production of ecosystems and agriculture could remain good and
water resources should not become generally limiting. Adaptation should aim to both
reduce risk and increase resilience, and seize opportunities which may arise for the
province. In particular, the opportunities that support job creation such as renewable
energy, ecotourism and agro-processing should be further investigated.
References
City of Johannesburg, 2009. Climate Change Adaptation Plan. Prepared for: City of Johannesburg
Prepared by: WSP Environmental Group
City of Tshwane, 2015. City of Tshwane Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change.
CSAG (Climate System Analysis Group), 2016. South African Provincial Climate Narratives.
DAFF (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries), 2015. Draft Climate Change Sector Plan
for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Government of the Republic of South Africa, Pretoria.
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2011. National Climate Change Response Policy
(NCCRP). Department of Environmental Affairs, Government of the Republic of South Africa, Pretoria.
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2013a. Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship
Research Programme (LTAS) for South Africa. Climate Trends and Scenarios for South Africa.
Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa.
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2013b. Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship
Research Programme (LTAS) for South Africa. Climate Change Implications for the Water Sector in
South Africa. Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa.
89
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2013c. Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship
Research Programme (LTAS) for South Africa. Climate Change Implications for the Agriculture and
Forestry Sectors in South Africa. Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of South
Africa.
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2013d. Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship
Research Programme (LTAS) for South Africa. Climate Change Implications for the Biodiversity
Sector in South Africa. Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa.
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2015a. The Economics of Adaptation to Future Climates
in South Africa. An integrated biophysical and economic analysis. Report No. 6 for the Long Term
Adaptation Scenarios Flagship Research Programme (LTAS) Phase 2. Department of Environmental
Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa.
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2015b. Climate Change Adaptation Plans for South
African Biomes. Prepared for the Department of Environmental Affairs by Natural Resources and
Environment, CSIR.
DEA, 2015c. Climate Change Adaptation Perspectives for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
in South Africa. Provisional Modelling of Drought, Flood and Sea Level Rise Impacts and a
Description of Adaptation Responses. Report No. 3 for the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship
Research Program (LTAS) Phase 2. Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of South
Africa.
DEA, 2015d. Climate Change Adaptation: Perspectives for the Southern African Development
Community (SADC). Report No. 1 for the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship Research
Program (LTAS) Phase 2. Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa.
DEA, 2015e. Climate Change Adaptation: Perspectives on Food Security in South Africa. Towards
an integrated Economic Analysis. Report No. 5 for the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship
Research Program (LTAS) Phase 2. Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of
South Africa.
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2016a. South Africa’s Third National Communication
(TNC) to the UNFCCC. Chapter 3: Draft version dated 10 October 2016. Department of
Environmental Affairs, Government of the Republic of South Africa, Pretoria.
DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs), 2016b. South Africa National Adaptation Strategy (NAS).
Draft for comments, submitted 16 September 2016. Department of Environmental Affairs,
Government of the Republic of South Africa, Pretoria.
Driver, A., Sink, K., Nel, J., Holness, S., Van Niekerk, L., Daniels, F., Jonas, Z., Majiedt, P., Harris, L.
and Maze, K., 2012. National Biodiversity Assessment 2011 An assessment of South Africa’s
biodiversity and ecosystems. Pretoria, South Africa.
GCRO (Gauteng City Region Observatory, 2015. Acid Mine Drainage and it Governance in Gauteng
City Region.
GDARD (Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development), 2011. Gauteng Climate
Change Response Strategy. GDARD, South Africa.
GDARD (Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development), 2015. Gauteng Agroprocessing Strategy. GDARD, South Africa.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate
Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment
90
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M.
Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2014a. Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S.
Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of
Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp.
117-130.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2014b. Summary for policymakers. In: Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M.
Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken,
P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32.
Le Roux, A., Khuluse, S. and Naude, A.J. 2015. Creating a High-Resolution Social Vulnerability Map
in Support of National Decision Makers in South Africa, in Cartography-Maps Connecting the World,
Springer, pp. 283-294.
MacKellar, N., New, M. and Jack, C. 2014. Observed and modelled trends in rainfall and temperature
for South Africa: 1960-2010. South African Journal of Science 110 (7-8): 1-13.
Midgley, S.J.E. 2016a. Commodity value chain analysis for dairy. WWF-SA, South Africa.
Midgley, S.J.E. 2016b. Commodity value chain analysis for apples. WWF-SA, South Africa.
Midgley, S.J.E. 2016c. Commodity value chain analysis for wheat. WWF-SA, South Africa.
Niang, I., O.C. Ruppel, M.A. Abdrabo, A. Essel, C. Lennard, J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart, 2014:
Africa. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M.
Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken,
P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199-1265.
Scholtz, A. & Von Bormann, T. 2016. Planning for uncertainty: developing scenarios for risk
resilience in the South African agri-food value chain. WWF South Africa.
Turpie, J. and Visser, M., 2013. The impact of climate change on South Africa’s rural areas, Chapter 4
in the Submission for the 2013/14 Division of Revenue, pp. 100-162
UN (United Nations), 2015. Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,
UN, Resolution A/Res/70/1, October 2015.
WCDOA & WCDEADP, 2016. Western Cape Climate Change Response Framework and
Implementation Plan for the Agricultural Sector – 2016. Western Cape Department of Agriculture and
Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs & Development Planning. Prepared by African
Climate & Development Initiative and consortium partners, University of Cape Town, Cape Town.
91
Appendix 1: List of documents consulted
No
Type of document
Name of document
1
GCCRS
Gauteng Climate Change Response Strategy (2011)
2
Global research
reports
3
National policy
4
National policy
IPCC AR59 (also WGII chapters)
SA National Climate Change Response White Paper (2011)
SA National Adaptation Strategy Draft for Comments (16
September 2016)
SA Third National Communication to the United Nations
5
National
Framework Convention on Climate Change Chapter 3 Draft (10
communication
October 2016) [this is the main source of climate science
analysis]
Long-Term
6
LTAS report (national)
Adaptation
Scenarios
Flagship
Research
Programme (LTAS) for South Africa. Climate Trends and
Scenarios for South Africa (2013)
7
LTAS report (national)
Long-Term
Adaptation
Scenarios
Programme
(LTAS)
South
for
Flagship
Africa.
Research
Climate
Change
Implications for the Water Sector in South Africa (2013)
8
LTAS report (national)
Long-Term
Adaptation
Scenarios
Programme
(LTAS)
South
for
Flagship
Africa.
Climate
Research
Change
Implications for the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors in South
Africa (2013)
9
LTAS report (national)
Long-Term
Adaptation
Scenarios
Programme
(LTAS)
South
for
Flagship
Africa.
Climate
Research
Change
Implications for Human Health in South Africa (2013)
10
LTAS report (national)
Long-Term
Adaptation
Scenarios
Programme
(LTAS)
South
for
Flagship
Africa.
Climate
Research
Change
Implications for the Biodiversity Sector in South Africa (2013)
11
LTAS report (national)
9
Long-Term
Adaptation
Scenarios
Flagship
Research
IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections [van Oldenborgh, G.J., M.
Collins, J. Arblaster, J.H. Christensen, J. Marotzke, S.B. Power, M. Rummukainen and T. Zhou (eds.)].
In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K.
Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
92
No
Type of document
Name of document
Programme (LTAS) for South Africa Report No.2: Climate
Information and Early Warning Systems to Support Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management under Future Climate Conditions in
South Africa (draft 2014)
Long-Term
12
LTAS report (national)
Adaptation
Scenarios
Flagship
Research
Programme (LTAS) for South Africa Report No.3: Climate
Change Adaptation: Perspectives for Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management in South Africa (draft 2014)
Long-Term
13
LTAS report (national)
Adaptation
Scenarios
Flagship
Research
Programme (LTAS) for South Africa Report No.4: Climate
Change Adaptation: Perspectives on Urban, Rural and Coastal
Human Settlements in South Africa (draft 2014)
Long-Term
14
LTAS report (national)
Adaptation
Scenarios
Flagship
Research
Programme (LTAS) for South Africa Report No.5: Climate
Change Adaptation: Perspectives on Food Security in South
Africa (draft 2014)
Long-Term
15
LTAS report (national)
Adaptation
Scenarios
Flagship
Research
Programme (LTAS) for South Africa Report No.6: The
economics of adaptation to future climates in South Africa (draft
2014)
National Sectoral
16
Climate Change
response plan
Draft Climate Change Sector Plan for Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries (2015)
National Sectoral
17
Climate Change
National Climate Change & Health Adaptation Plan 2014-2019
response plan
National Sectoral
18
Climate Change
response plan
National Climate Change Response Strategy for the Water
Sector
National Sectoral
19
Climate Change
Draft National Tourism and Climate Change Action Plan (2011)
response plan
20
National Sectoral
Climate Change Adaptation Plans for South African Biomes
Climate Change
(2015)
93
No
Type of document
Name of document
response plan
National Sectoral
21
Climate Change
response plan
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
National research
document
Gauteng Status Quo
Report
Gauteng strategy /
framework / plan
Gauteng strategy /
framework / plan
Climate Change Adaptation Sector Strategy for Rural Human
Settlements (2013)
South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA) (2011)
State of Green Infrastructure in the Gauteng City-Region (2013)
Gauteng Comprehensive Rural Development Strategy (2010)
The Gauteng Agricultural Development Strategy (GADS) (2006)
Gauteng strategy /
A strategy for a developmental green economy for Gauteng
framework / plan
(2010)
Gauteng strategy /
framework / plan
Gauteng strategy /
framework / plan
Gauteng strategy /
framework / plan
Gauteng strategy /
framework / plan
Gauteng 20 Year Food Security Plan
Gauteng Social Development Strategy (2006)
Gauteng Agro-processing Strategy (2015)
Gauteng Spatial Development Framework 2030
Gauteng Status Quo
31
Report / research
Gauteng State of Environment Report (2011)
study
32
33
34
Gauteng strategy /
Gauteng City Region Economic Development Framework
framework / plan
Summary
Gauteng strategy /
Gauteng City Region Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (GCR
framework / plan
IIMP) 2030
Gauteng strategy /
Gauteng Provincial Environmental Management Framework
framework / plan
(2014)
Gauteng Status Quo
35
Report / research
study
Analysing Cities’ Climate Change Resilience – Food Security,
Transport, Water. Synthesis Report.
94
No
36
Type of document
Gauteng strategy /
framework / plan
Gauteng Status Quo
37
Report / research
study
38
39
Name of document
Climate Change Adaptation Plan City of Johannesburg (2009)
City of Tshwane Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change
(2015)
Gauteng strategy /
West Rand District Municipality Climate Change Vulnerability
framework / plan
Assessment and Response Plan Draft Version 2 (October 2016)
Gauteng strategy /
Sedibeng District Municipality Climate Change Vulnerability
framework / plan
Assessment and Response Plan Draft Version 2 (October 2016)
95
Appendix 2: Gauteng workshop participants
96
97
98
99
Name
Institution
Sector
Sheree Bega
Saturday Star
Moagi Keretetse
GDARD
Agriculture and Food Security
Anthony Moloto
GDARD
Agriculture and Food Security
Netshithetle
GDARD
Agriculture and Food Security
Mbere Munzhelele
GDARD
Agriculture and Food Security
Ulrich Steenkamp
Earthlife Africa
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Evelyn Molefe
GDARD
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Quinton Joshua
GDARD
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Marc Leroy
GDARD
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Mzukisi Gwata
City of Johannesburg: Air quality
Cross-cutting
Lebo Molefe
City of Johannesburg: EISD
Cross-cutting
Mapesa Khanye
City of Tshwane DMC
Cross-cutting
Jeffrey Mothuli
City of Tshwane DMC
Cross-cutting
Lutske Newton
City of Tshwane: Adaptation
Cross-cutting
Faith Nkohla
DEA
Cross-cutting
Vhalinavho Khavhagali
DEA
Cross-cutting
Is'haaq Akoon
Ekhuruleni: Environment
Cross-cutting
Gassip Fairuz
GDARD
Cross-cutting
Yonela Thungana
GDARD
Cross-cutting
Mokgadi Tseka
GDARD
Cross-cutting
Gerson Nethavhani
GDARD
Cross-cutting
Malesetse Makgalerele
GDARD
Cross-cutting
Neggie Makamo
GDARD
Cross-cutting
Zinzi Seepie
GPD:OOP Town Planner
Cross-cutting
Eddy Tshabalala
Sedibeng DM and DEA
Cross-cutting
Archy Tobby
WITS Researcher
Cross-cutting
100
V.d.Berg
COGTA
DRM
Isaac Salagae
COGTA Energy Office
Energy
Mbali Hadebe
NCPC-SA
Energy
David Mahuma
SANEDI
Energy
Rochelle Adolph
District Sedibeng: Health
Health
Louisa
Gauteng Health
Health
Reginald
Sedibeng DHS
Health
Sifiso Ngubeni
Sedibeng DHS
Health
Luke Moore
ICLEI
Human settlements
Senzo
JCPZ Johannesburg City Parks
Human Settlements
Rex Uguhu
WITS Researcher
Human Settlements
Thozama Ntsale
GDID
Infrastructure
Ngcebo Nsimbini
GDID
Infrastructure
Mariette Liefferink
Federation for a Sustainable
Environment
Mining
101
Appendix 3: Gauteng workshop agenda
Agenda for first Provincial workshop Gauteng:
Provincial Plans Phase Three: Support the review of Provincial Climate Change
Response Strategies and the Development of Action Plans
Date: 1 November 2016
Venue: Protea Hotel Parktonian, 120 De Korte St, Braamfontein, Johannesburg
PROVINCIAL CONSULTATIONS: Support the review of Provincial Climate
Change Response Strategies and the Development of Action Plans
SESSION 1: Setting
the scene
SESSION 2: Climate
Change Risk and
Vulnerability
08:30-09:00
Arrival and registration
09:00-09:10
Opening and welcome (Gauteng/DEA)
09:10-09:20
Introductions
09:20-09:30
Workshop agenda, objectives & expectations
09:30-09:55
Overview of the project: objectives; linkages to other
national and provincial climate change processes; objectives
of Phases II and III
09:55-10:10
Provincial Perspectives: climate change impacts,
vulnerabilities and adaptation measures (ongoing)
10:10-10:25
10:25-10:45
10:45-10:55
10:55-11:45
Update of Gauteng climate change trends and projections
Tea and coffee break
Introduction to participatory activity
Participatory activity: up-to-date Gauteng climate change
impact, risk and vulnerability
Feedback and summary Session 2
11:45-11:55
SESSION 3: Gauteng
Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy
11:55-12:15
Overview of the Gauteng Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy
12:15-12:25
Introduction to participatory activity
12:25-13:15
13:15-13:30
Participatory activity: revisit the Gauteng Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy on the basis of current impacts, risks
and vulnerabilities
13:30-14:15
Feedback
14:15-14:25
102
14:25-14:35
14:35-15:20
Lunch break
Questionnaire: adaptive capacity, barriers and enablers
Introduction to participatory activity
15:20-15:35
Participatory activity: new needs,
opportunities linked to core business
Feedback and summary Session 3
15:35-15:45
15:45-16:00
Learning and way forward
Closing (Gauteng/DEA)
approaches
&
103
Appendix 4: List of indices of extreme climate used for the TNC
The following set of indices used in the TNC were based on those developed by the World
Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (WMO
ETCCDI):
Index
Definition
Units
TX90P
Annual number of days when maximum temperatures are > 90th
days
percentile (warm days)
TX10P
Annual number of days when maximum temperatures are < 10th days
percentile (cool days)
TN90P
Annual number of days when minimum temperatures are > 90th days
percentile (warm nights)
TN10P
Annual number of days when minimum temperatures are < 10th days
percentile (cold nights)
TXx
Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperatures °C
(daytime hottest temperature)
TXn
Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperatures (daytime °C
coolest temperature)
TNx
Monthly maximum
value of
daily minimum temperatures °C
(nighttime warmest temperature)
TNn
Monthly
minimum
value
of
daily
minimum
temperatures °C
(nighttime coldest temperature)
WSDI
Annual number of days with at least 6 consecutive days when
days
maximum temperatures are > 90th percentile (warm spells
duration)
CSDI
Annual number of days with at least 6 consecutive days when days
minimum temperatures are < 10th percentile (cold spells
duration)
DTR
Daily temperature range (monthly mean difference between °C
maximum and minimum temperatures)
Rx1day
Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation
mm
Rx5day
Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation
mm
104
SDII
Annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days
mm
(days with precipitation ≥ 1mm) (Simple daily precipitation
intensity index)
R10mm
Annual count of days when precipitation is ≥ 10mm (number of days
heavy precipitation days)
R20mm
Annual count of days when precipitation is ≥ 20mm (number of
days
very heavy precipitation days)
CDD
Maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation < 1mm days
(Maximum length of dry spell)
CWD
Maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation ≥ 1mm days
(Maximum length of wet spell)
PRCPTOT Annual total precipitation from wet days (precipitation ≥ 1mm) mm
(total wet-day precipitation)
R95pTOT
Annual total precipitation from days with precipitation > 95th mm
percentile (total very wet-day precipitation)
R99pTOT
Annual total precipitation from days with precipitation > 99th mm
percentile (total extremely wet-day precipitation)
105
Appendix 5: Gauteng climate trends
The following slides form part of the presentation given at the Gauteng stakeholder
workshop held on 1 November 2016. They draw on figures and information given in the draft
Chapter 3 of the TNC.
106
107
108
109
110
111
Appendix 6: Gauteng climate change projections
For the Gauteng projections presented below (Appendix 6a and 6b), each plume plot
represents projections of a variable (rainfall, temperature and their attributes) averaged over
the entire province. The Gauteng province is relatively small, and heterogeneity of climate
within the province is relatively limited. This justifies the province-average representation,
and the spatial variations in change signal of both rainfall and temperature across the
province is expected to be minor. As Gauteng is largely dependent on water from the Vaal
dam and Upper Orange catchments, rainfall projections for these areas have been included
and are presented alongside the Gauteng projections (Figures 6b.9-16).
For each geographic area, the inland and coastal, projections are presented for two different
greenhouse
gas
(GHG)
emission
pathways,
RCP4.5
(Figures
6a.1/3/5/7/9/11
&
6b.1/3/5/7/9/11/13/15) and RCP8.5 (Figures 6a.2/4/6/8/10/12 & 6b.2/4/6/8/10/12/14/16). The
former, RCP4.5 assumes a future where emissions peak around 2040, after which they
decline, while RCP8.5 assumes a future where emissions continue to rise throughout this
century. Both a presented here, seeing that there is still a lot of uncertainty related to the
extent to which GHG emissions will be curbed into the future.
Both direct Global Climate Model (GCM) (Figures 6a.1/2/5/6/9/10 & 6b.1/2/5/6/9/10/13/14)
and downscaled (Figures 6a.3/4/7/8/11/12 & 6b.3/4/7/8/11/12/15/16) projections are
presented below. Because of the coarse resolution of GCMs, the GCM projections are not
suitable for direct use in local scale climate change assessment and impact modelling. For
this, GCM data have to be appropriately downscaled to a finer resolution (see the technical
box below). Despite this, it is important to look at GCM output in conjunction with
downscaled data. This is because of uncertainties involved in downscaling. By comparing
both, we look at “multiple sources of evidence”, and their qualitative agreement increases
our confidence in the projections (e.g. if the indicated direction of change of the GCM and
downscaling output is the same). For the sake of consistency, we present GCM information
in the same way as downscaled information, i.e. plume plots for each of the considered
regions10.
10 Since
regions are smaller than the typical GCM, values for each of the regions is derived by
interpolating between centres of the GCM grid.
112
Each plume plot presents the temporal evolution of a variable (e.g. total seasonal rainfall)
through time, with each line representing the 20-year moving average of that variable
projected by a GCM or that of a downscaled GCM. Each plot shows the output of multiple
GCMs (or downscaled GCMs), thereby presenting the range of plausible projections. That
range captures such aspects of climate projections as uncertainty arising due to the chaotic
nature of the climate system, as well as uncertainty related to model imperfections.
Estimates of uncertainty resulting from natural variability within each individual projection are
represented by shaded areas surrounding the projected values. Formally, these shaded
areas illustrate 95% confidence interval of the 20-year average value of the illustrated
variable. Significance of the projected changes (i.e. when the changes exceed the bounds of
what we have experienced in the past) are highlighted by a change in colour from blue to
orange. Formally, that change corresponds to the 95% significance level. The change in
colour allows for some estimation of when in the future we are likely to be operating under a
climate that is distinctly different from the climate we currently experience.
Technical box: Self-organising map based downscaling (SOMD)
Downscaling proposes that the local scale climate is largely a function of the large-scale
climate modified by some local forcing factors, such as topography, continentality and
proximity to oceans and lakes. There are two main types of downscaling; dynamical and
empirical / statistical. This project employs the latter type which utilises a statistical technique
to approximate the regional scale response to the large scale forcing. The technique used is
called Self-Organizing Map based Downscaling (SOMD) developed at the Climate Systems
Analysis Group (CSAG). This is a leading empirical downscaling technique for Africa and
provides meteorological station level (or gridded) response to global climate change forcing.
The downscaling of a Global Climate Model output is accomplished by deriving the
normative local response from the atmospheric state on a given day, as defined from
historical observed data. The method recognises that the regional response is both
stochastic as well as a function of the large-scale circulation. As such it generates a
statistical distribution of observed responses to past large scale observed circulation states.
These distributions are then sampled based on the GCM generated circulation to produce a
time series of GCM downscaled daily values for the variable in question (in this case
temperature and rainfall). An advantage of this method is that the relatively unskilled grid
113
scale GCM precipitation and surface temperature are not used by the downscaling but rather
the relatively highly skilled large scale circulation (pressure, wind and humidity) fields are
employed.
Appendix 6a: Gauteng climate change temperature projections
Gauteng mean seasonal temperatures:
Figure 6a.1
114
Figure 6a.2
Figure 6a.3
115
Figure 6a.4
Gauteng mean of daily maximum temperature:
Figure 6a.5
116
Figure 6a.6
Figure 6a.7
117
Figure 6a.8
Gauteng number of days with tmax>35 deg in a season:
Figure 6a.
118
Figure 6a.10
Figure 6a.11
119
Figure 6a.12
120
Appendix 6b: Gauteng climate change rainfall projections
Gauteng mean daily rainfall in a season:
Figure 6b.1
121
Figure 6b.2
Figure 6b.3
122
Figure 6b.4
Gauteng total seasonal rainfall:
Figure 6b.
123
Figure 6b.6
Figure 6b.7
124
Figure 6b.8
Comparison Gauteng, Vaal dam and Upper Orange catchments: total annual rainfall
Figure 6b.9
125
Figure 6b.10
Figure 6b.11
Figure 6b.12
126
Comparison Gauteng, Vaal dam and Upper Orange catchments: mean daily rainfall
Figure 6b.13
Figure 6b.14
Figure 6b.15
127
Figure 6b.16
128
Appendix 7: List of additional climate change impacts added by workshop participants11
No.
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
Impact
Increasing temperature results in increasing energy demand in
agricultural sector
Reduction in shelf life of perishable products
Rainfall variability leads to shorter growing season
Loss of biodiversity due to wetland destruction and degradation
Prioritisation of food security leading to loss of biodiversity
Changes / loss of soil faunal microbes
Increased probability of ecosystems reaching tipping point
Loss of biodiversity could lead to decline of ecotourism and economic
growth
Loss of ecosystems and biodiversity lead to the threat of the survival of
human settlements and livelihoods that depend on the natural systems
(e.g. rural communities)
Extreme weather events contribute to the destruction of biodiversity and
the natural "fighting systems" which result in the increase of disease
vectors and their distribution
Loss of biodiversity leads to loss of ecosystem goods and services
Loss of biodiversity threatens urban systems and livelihoods - social
impacts
Extreme heat events like droughts destroy crops and grassland for
farming, threatening food availability and production
Extreme weather events like flooding can leach the soil of nutrients
decreasing plant growth and biodiversity mass
Alien plants absorb more water than indigenous plants affecting water
security especially during droughts because of reduction of groundwater
availability
11
Sector
Risk
Time frame
Agriculture and Food Security
H
S
Agriculture and Food Security
Agriculture and Food Security
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
H
H
H
H
M
M
S
S
S/M/L
S/M
S/M/L
M
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
M
S/M
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
M
M
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
H
S
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
H
S
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
H
S
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
M/H
/
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
H
S
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
M/H
S/M
A number of added impacts were not risks/impacts/vulnerabilities but rather suggestions for adaptation options and have not been included in this
table
129
No.
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
Impact
Ecosystem and biodiversity destruction leads to the decrease of trees
and destruction of plants affecting the carbon cycle
Water losses due to ageing infrastructure
Negative impacts of development of municipal infrastructure on and
near wetlands and water courses
Extreme climate events such as flooding displaces people within cities
Failure to deliver basic services due to climate extreme events can lead
to political instability
Link between ill health / mortality and unsustainable human settlements
The vulnerability between transport infrastructure and storm-water
infrastructure and flooding; need for resilient infrastructure
Access to water and rest rooms for commuters especially during
heatwaves and heavy downpours
Injury from extreme climatic event e.g. tornado
Water scarcity will impact traditional energy generation methods
The hydro-energy and pump storage generation methods will not be
successful due to water scarcity
Transmission lines are damaged due to flooding; decentralise
transmission grid / systems for maintenance purposes
Due to increase in temperatures, renewable energy generation is the
viable option; we can capitalise on the increasing temperatures
Increases in energy demand as a result of temperature increases
Socio-economic impacts of increasing cost (as a result of climate
impacts) of doing business - job losses, unrest
Sector
Risk
Time frame
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
M
M
Water Resources
H
S
Water Resources
H
S
Human Settlements
M
M
Human Settlements
M
M
Human Settlements
H
S
Transport and Public Infrastructure
H
S
Transport and Public Infrastructure
M/H
S
Human Health
Energy
L
H
L
S/M/L
Energy
M
M/L
Energy
M
M
Energy
H
S/M/L
Energy
H
S/M/L
Mining
H
S/M