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Climate Change: An Overview
and Current Scenario
Mihir Mathur
TERI, New Delhi
Presented at Seminar on Climate Change and Global
Warming, 21st July 2016
Vishwa Yuvak Kendra, New Delhi
Global Warming and Climate
Change
• What is global warming?
– It generally refers to the increase in
average surface temperature of Earth.
• What is climate change?
– It generally refers to long term shifts in
climate parameters like precipitation,
temperature, rainy days, extreme weather
events etc.
• They both are similar, but not the same
Variation and Change
Variation and Change
Source: http://www.carbonbrief.org/media/49142/graph_temp_rise.png
Climate Change: Background
• The earth's climate is naturally variable on all time
scales
• But current increase in rate of change is also
attributed to anthropogenic factors
• Mainly due to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
from human activities
• Anthropogenic climate change
Global Warming Effect
• Rising Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions are the
dominant cause of observed warming
• The global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9
degrees Celsius between 1906 and 2005, and the rate of
temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50
years.
• Global Warming Potential of GHGs
–
–
–
–
–
Carbon Dioxide:
Methane:
Nitrous Oxide:
Perfluoro-Methane:
Sulfur Hexafluoride:
1
23
296
5700
22200
Source: IPCC AR5 SPM, Earth Observatory NASA,
The Science: Carbon Cycle
Source: google images
The Science
• Consensus among the scientific community that the climate is
changing
• Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the
highest in history
• The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of
snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen
• With continued emissions the likelihood of severe, pervasive
and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems is
increasing
Source: IPCC SPM 2014
Anthropogenic Emissions
• About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and
2011 have occurred in the last 40 years
• Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial
processes contributed about 78% of the total GHG emissions
increase from 1970 to 2010
• The atmospheric CO2 ppm levels have increased from 275 in year
1800 to current levels of 400 ppm.
• Globally each year we add approx. 2 ppm level of CO2-eq to
atmosphere
• Mitigation actions should target to keep the ppm levels at 450 or
lower in order to maintain warming below 2°C
Source: IPCC AR5 SPM,
Atmospheric CO2 Levels
Source: http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/download/400000-years-of-carbon-dioxide
Reference in History
CO2 and Temperature
• The last time atmosphere had 400 ppm CO2
concentration levels humans were not there
• Earth’s average temperature was warmer by 3-4°C
• That was around 3.6 million years ago
• IPCC suggests 2°C as the safe limit to avoid
dangerous climate change
Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/7/
CO2 and Temperature
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/temperature-change.html
Climate Risks and Impacts
Climate Change Risks
• It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and
last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will
become more intense and erratic in many regions.
• Warming is likely to exceed 2°C
• Amplification of existing risks and occurrence of new
risks which will be unevenly distributed and greater for
disadvantaged people and communities.
Source: IPCC SPM 2014
Economic Impacts
• 40% of the world's natural disasters occurred in Asia between
1999 and 2008 and accounted for 80% of disaster deaths.
• Cost of climate change risks could be equal to 5% of Global
GDP every year and could even go upto 20% (Stern review)
• Hurricane losses could increase property insurance losses by
30 to 40 percent over the next 20 years
• Katrina like storm could result into losses of around $60 billion
in future
Source: Development Asia March 2011, Insurance Information Institute
Climate Change in India
Climate Change Impacts
• Dry years are expected to be drier and wet years wetter.
• A 2°C rise in the world’s average temperatures will make
India’s summer monsoon highly unpredictable.
• Crop yields are expected to fall significantly because of
extreme heat by the 2040s.
• Unusual and unprecedented spells of hot weather are
expected to occur far more frequently and cover much
larger areas.
Source: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/06/19/india-climate-change-impacts
The Need
• India has diverse landscape and ecosystems - Long Coastline, Arid
and Semi Arid Regions, Forests, Mountains
• It will face varying impact of climate change – heat waves, floods,
storms and cyclone, drought
• Has high share of climate dependent livelihood sectors (mainly
agriculture and ancillary industries)
• Differing vulnerability amongst better off and poor people living in
different agro ecological zones having varying developmental needs
makes adaptation to climate change a highly complex task
• The response capacity has to be built at local level
Challenges
• Incremental adaptation is not enough, deeper structural
changes and social transformations are required (Pelling
2011, O’Brien 2012, Bulkeley 2013, IPCC 2014)
• These transformations have to also meet the developmental
needs of the people
• Thus, there is adaptation deficit and development deficit
• Activities should address both and should be in a Continuum
(McGray 2007)
Climate Actions
• Government has established the National Adaptation
Fund on Climate Change (NAFCC) with a budget
provision of around Rs.500 crores
• The focus of the fund is to assist concrete adaptation
activities that reduce the effects of climate change facing
communities and sectors.
• The National Bank for Agriculture and Rural
Development (NABARD) has been appointed as
National Implementing Entity (NIE)
Source: https://www.nabard.org/english/climate_change.aspx
Climate Actions
• NABARD is also the National Implementing Entity (NIE)
for Adaptation Fund under the Adaptation Fund Board.
• It is for the first time that two proposals from India were
approved by AFB (US$ 3.2 million).
• Project 1: Conservation and Management of Coastal
Resources as a Potential Adaptation Strategy for Sea
Level Rise (Executing Entity: MSSRF) USD 689,264
(Andhra Pradesh)
• Project 2: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Increasing
Resilience of Small and Marginal Farmers in Purulia and
Bankura Districts of West Bengal (Executing Entity:
DRCSC) USD 2,510,854
Source: https://www.nabard.org/pdf/AFB_Press_Release.pdf
Managing the Unavoidable
Mitigation Challenge
• Evolving global consensus on mitigation
commitments (Paris Agreement), but not fast
enough (1992-2016)
• If all commitments are met, it would still push the
temperature up by 2.7°C
• At current rate of emissions we would be reaching
450 ppm levels in next 25
• Mitigation actions require support of technological
and infrastructural change but these are long term
changes
• Shrinking window of opportunity
What is required?
• Human Systems should be prepared to respond to effects of
climate change
• But this response has to be in time with the changes
• Response Time < Change Time
• Responses = Mitigation and Adaptation
• If we respond late then we are not responding but reacting
Types of Adaptation Response
Source: IPCC, 2001
TERI’s Work on Climate
Change
1.
Coping with Climate: Assessing Policies for Climate Change
Adaptation and Transport Sector Mitigation in Indian Cities
(CLIMATRANS)
– Urban flood modeling and its impact on transport infrastructure in three
cities (Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore)
2.
The governance of climate services: Improving knowledge
networks for resilient and socially just societies (GovClimServices)
– Governance of climate services and related risks/uncertainties and
conditions for developing innovative, useable and socially just learning
networks.(Maharashtra)
3.
Heat Island Study: IB-Valley Industrial Cluster, Jharsuguda,
Odisha (Heat Island)
– Identification of temperature hotspots and adaptation measures for
female agricultural labourers to reduce the impact of heat stress.
TERI’s Work on Climate
Change
4. Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI AWARE)
– Will look into the temporal dimension of risks and its
matches/mismatches with decision making from the community to public
policy with a focus on multiple geographical scales within Indus, Ganga
and Brahmaputra river basins.
5. Adapting to climate change impacts on water quantity and quality in
the drylands of Maharashtra, India (TOO India)
– To understand and asses the impacts of climate change on the
hydrological system with respect to water availability and quality in the
drylands of Maharashtra
6. Extreme Risks, Vulnerabilities and Community based Adaptation in
India: A Pilot Study (EVA)
– Identifying adaptation options in a participatory manner, conditions for
effective implementation and identification of barriers at different levels.
Way Forward
• Aggressive mitigation required, immediately
• Need for Climate Policy Planning Tools
• Improvement in Climate Information Systems
• Ecosystems as (low cost) means of Adaptation
(EbA) and Mitigation
• Widespread actions, led by us!
Thank You!
Avoid the Unmanageable: Mitigate
Manage the Unavoidable: Adapt
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