Download The US military power

The Rise of China and
China-US Relations
Introduction to
International Relations
Prof. Jaechun Kim
Background of the Issue

The rise of China and the US strategic response


The recent US foreign policy has been
predicated on China’s rise to super power status



Key to understanding the future of international
relations in coming years!
To prevent China from reaching hegemonic status in
the region
The US has put in great efforts…
China’s foreign policy has become more
assertive as well


President Xi – “New Great Power Relations (新型
大國關係)”  G2
도광양회(韜光養晦: hide one’s ability and bide
time - Deng)∙화평굴기(和平崛起: Peaceful rise Hu)  유소작위(有所作爲: - Jiang)∙돌돌핍인(咄
咄逼人: - Xi)
Is China Surpassing the US?

Rise of China and ‘relative’ decline of the
US

1990 – 2006: The US economy grew by 60% cf.
China – 330%

2010 – China became number two economy in
the world in terms of GDP

2014 – China's economy, when measured
by purchasing power parity (PPP),
surpassed that of the United States to
become the world's largest

But the current international systems is
‘unipolar’ – the US remains the sole
superpower


Unipolar system is different from
‘hegemonic’ system
The US no longer is a hegemonic state…

The US economic power…

The US economy (GDP) is responsible for ¼ of the
world and equal to sum of next 2~4

The US economy is about 2 times bigger than that of
China

2013 the U.S. GDP was $16.72 trillion, whereas
China's GDP equaled $9.33 trillion

Per capita GDP is much bigger…In 2013, the
average American was more than five times as
wealthy than his Chinese counterpart

Goldman Sachs predicts China’s economy will
surpass that of the US in 2027
•
•
But not per capita GDP!
Less regional disparities in terms of income

The US spends more than 40 percent of world’s
R&D – cf. about twice the size of China’s

The US spends 7% of GDP on education – cf.
China (2%); The US hosts 80% of world’s top 50
universities… (education)

40% of the OECD patent rights belong to the US;
The US hosts the biggest IT industry and many
other leading edge industries… quality matters…
(technology and innovations)

American economy has been in relative decline,
but the US economic advantage will sustain
longer than anticipated…!
•
•
The US is a young country, China? (demographics)
The impact of shale gas revolution? (resources)

The US military power

Since 1996 China’s military spending has
maintained two-digit growth rate; in 2009 China
spent 2% of GDP on military (99 billion dollars)
cf. the US spent 4.3% of GDP (6.7 trillion dollars)

The US military spending > next 9 countries

RMA  the US has state of the art military
system!

Not only conventional forces, but nuclear
forces… The US has advantages!

The US has the strongest navy in history…;
The US air power is unmatched…

Military Projection Capabilities –The US
is the only country that has military that
they can project all around the world…
•
China is unable to project air and naval power
to key areas of interests, yet…
•
China is not able to field high-tech military
forces, yet…

The US is anticipated to maintain military
advantage for a long time…

Unipolar international system is here to stay…

China is relying on ‘area denial capability’ in Asia
and is increasing ‘asymmetric force’ – 2A/AD
•
Ballistic missile or submarines to deny the US naval
forces access to key posts in Asia
•
Special operation forces…and technology to disable
the US satellites and communications…
The Nature of G2

Cooperation and competition between the
US and China cf. Cold War bipolarity

Is China a revisionist country? China is
status quo oriented…?

China feels that core interests are
threatened by the US dominant unipolar
system...?

Fatalistic view toward rising China… and
also the competition – intention doesn’t
matter!

Rise of hegemon usually leads to wars

Two tigers can’t share one mountain….
(一山不容兩虎)

Power transition theory
•
•
A big time competition between the US and China…
China surpassing the US…
Replacement process will be very conflictual…

Offensive realism (J. Mearsheimer) –
states would feel most safe when they
become hegemon…

China will try hard to become the
strongest country in the world

Is it really inevitable?
The US Policy Response to
the Rise of China
 The
US strategy in the post-Cold War era

Debate: Predominance… worth not candle (Jervis)
vs. primacy matters (Huntington)

Conclusion: Preserve unipolar moment!

DPG for 1994-1999; QDR 1997, 2001; National
Security Strategy of the US 2002  call for
discouraging rise of hegemonic challenger…
 Mixture
of realist and liberalist policies
 Liberalist
policies: policies of
engagement

Make China one of us! Transform China! Enmesh
China in the global economy and institutional
frameworks...

China’s rise can be managed… cf. China will be a
threat

Economic interdependence
•
Interdependence leads to peace

Democratic peace

Institutions
 Realist
policies: policy of containment

Use American military power

Internal balancing

External balancing
•

Offshore balancing – let Japan, S Korea,
India and others balance off China!
Realist policy response – based on
American hard power cf. soft power –
liberalist
 Mixture
kind!
of both! Matter of degree, not
 Congagement…
hedging strategy

Democratic administrations – more
emphasis on engagement cf. Republican
administrations – more emphasis on
balancing…

Clinton – Strategic partner

Bush – Strategic competitor

Obama – engagement

 Pivot to Asia…  Rebalancing 
Readjustment?

What would be the security implications of
China’s rise to the region and also to the
world?

How do you predict the future of Sino-US
relations?