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Dr John C. Mutter Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Professor of International and Public Affairs is a noun is an adjective By development we mean By we mean ….the challenge of spreading social, political and economic opportunity to the entire global community, particularly the poorest of the poor. Synonyms for include: growth, expansion, progress, advance increase, maturity, enlargement improvement By sustainable we mean …. (able to be maintained) ……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate. The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted Nordhouse Today’s divided world rich poor GNP PPP/person population (billion) % increase/year % with HIV/AIDS $26,320 1.2 0.1 0.5 $4,450 5.3 1.5 1.4 infant mortality rate 6/1000 59/1000 children/woman 1.6 3.0 life expectancy 76 65 % urban 76 41 people/km2 24 64 Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source: www.worldmapper.org GDP Wealth increases 7yr doubling 10 yr doubling GDP = C + I + E + G C = Consumer Spending I = Investment made by industry E = Excess of Exports over Imports G = Government Spending Human Development Index ° Literacy - nu. in school c/w those who should be. ° Health - life expectancy ° GDP - the usual measure of welfare Add them up, normalize, range from .0 to 1.000 Norway is top rank, Niger bottom, Afghanistan next to last (2009) US is #13, China #92, India 134, Australia #2 http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/ GDP can be high and development low HDI GDP Life expectancy Gapminder The distribution appears to have two parts Gapminder Which direction is causation? Does improved health create wealth, or does wealth lead to improved health? Gapminder Maternal mortality Young female illiteracy Human development HDI A few countries are re-ordered but top and bottom remain Human development declines Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source: www.worldmapper.org HDI GDP Maybe measures that emphasize wealth are misleading The Happy Planet Index! Life expectancy x Life satisfaction GDP per capita PPP adjusted Ecological footprint Even the Happy Planet Index is bi-modal The Happy Planet Index! Welfare has been achieved very unevenly around the world (regardless of the measure). What governs the current global distribution of welfare? Does geography/environment matter? The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted GDP per capita as a function of latitude. Poverty has a latitudinal dependence (J. Sachs) 70 HDI low est 40% Very few outliers HDI middle 40% HDI highest 20% 50 Latitude (negative indicates South) 30 10 -10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -30 -50 -70 HDI (1980-2000) 0.8 1.0 Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder X t+1 More realistic growth model xt X t+1 xc Stagnation - poverty trap xt X t+1 xc Stagnation xt Output density and temperature Output per capita and temperature Nordhaus W D PNAS 2006;103:3510-3517 What causes this development gap? Can development get started? Can prosperity be maintained? How big is the problem? What would it take to close the gap? To do nothing more than close the gap between the top and the bottom (no growth at the top no population increase) requires a 4-fold increase in world economic output. Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to prosper, then closing the development gap requires a 6-8 Fold increase in world economic output. BUT since the industrial revolution world economic output has increased at least 40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased 4-5 fold. So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial revolution. All we need to do to close the gap is achieve a: 6-8 fold increase economic for only a 50% population increase What’s the problem? If the current rate of economic growth were to continue on average (forget inequalities) then by the end of the century the world’s economic output would have increased by ?? 80 fold The industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the development discussion) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless relative to population. Ample evidence now suggests that many biophysical and geophysical limits are being approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable. What causes this development gap? 40000 Real World 30000 Global disease burden (M. Bonds) 20000 DALY=YYL+YLD YYL years of life lost; YLD years lived with disability 0 10000 Per Capita Income 50000 GDP 0 .2 .4 Disease Burden (Dalys) .6 Global distribution of DALYs 60 20 40 Most of the the world’s chronically ill people are in the tropics 0 Latitude (Absolute Value) Latitude 0 .2 .4 Dalys .6 Malaria Ecology Index Very low soil fertility Soil fertility CGAIR The Poverty Trap A "any self-reinforcing mechanism which causes poverty to persist.” In a poor country you are very likely to become ill – poverty leads to illness Illness prevents you from working and attending school – illness leads to poverty Poverty Trap mechanisms include: low access to credit and capital markets weak institutions of governance, corruption, capital flight, war, poor infrastructure. 70 HDI low est 40% HDI middle 40% HDI highest 20% 50 Latitude (negative indicates South) 30 10 -10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -30 -50 -70 HDI (1980-2000) 0.8 1.0 The worlds climate zones are more or less temperature zones Climate zones are controlled by the largescale circulation of the atmosphere Polar cell Ferrell cell Hadley cell Deserts here Rain forests here 58 Large-scale circulation of the atmosphere “determines” our welfare Polar cell: impossible Ferrell cell: wealthy Hadley cell: poor Climate zones are (almost) rainfall zones 60 Agro-ecological zones Does this say that aggressive appropriation of energy assets is needed for growth? World coal production World coal proven reserves Carbon dioxide per capita 2002 Ecological debtors and creditors >50% in debt > 50% in credit Is aggressive appropriation of the biosphere necessary for development or a consequence of it? Is wealth or poverty the greatest threat to biodiversity loss? The developing world cannot catch up to the top billion along the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet. Nor can the top billion having taken one pathway to prosperity continue along the same pathway without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet. Is this the only way development can happen? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital What is this graph telling us? Ideal green spot Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital What is this graph telling us? Some measure of use of natural capital What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity “Are our dealings with nature sustainable? Can we expect world economic growth to continue for the foreseeable future? Should we be confident that our knowledge and skills will increase in ways that will lessen our reliance on nature despite our growing numbers and rising economic activity?” Sir Partha Dasgupta