Download World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Dr. David Carson

The WCRP in support of the IPCC
David Carson
Director WCRP
SBSTA17, New Delhi, India
28 October 2002
Research priorities

Detecting, attributing and projecting the
magnitude and extent of human
induced climate change, regional
variations and related sea-level rise
– input to the IPCC, UNFCCC and other
Conventions
CLIVAR 1995 
SPARC 1992
WGNE
WGCM
WOCE 1990-2002
TOGA
1985-1994
GEWEX 1988 
ACSYS/CLIC 1994–2003/2000 
CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)
CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary
research effort within the World
Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) focusing on the
variability and predictability of
the slowly varying components
of the climate system.
CLIVAR investigates the
physical and dynamical
processes in the climate
system that occur on seasonal,
interannual, decadal and
centennial time-scales.
http://www.clivar.org
Change of Atlantic circulation
A FULL SHUT-DOWN CANNOT
BE EXCLUDED BEYOND 2100
Stocker et al, IPCC, 2001
GEWEX PHASE II
Overall guiding goals (JSC-XXII, March 2001)



production of consistent descriptions of Earth’s
energy budget and water cycle and their variability
and trends, and data sets for validation of models
enhancing understanding of how energy and water
cycle processes contribute to climate feedbacks
developing improved parametrizations encapsulating
these processes and feedbacks for atmospheric
circulation models
Why a CEOP ?
Timing of new satellites and GEWEX CSEs provides
opportunity for significant benefit from a more
coordinated observation period.
North American
Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
Monsoon Experiment in
South America (MESA)
(MDB)
Cloud-climate forcing and feedback


representation of cloud-climate forcing and feedback
in models - one of the most uncertain areas in
climate simulations and projections of climate
change
key to progress - combination of modelling and
observations to establish a (predictive)
understanding of relationship between clouds and
the circulation, and of many other feedbacks/
relationships involved
CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATION
between the present day and the middle of the 21st
century
Global climate model
Regional climate model
Predictability Assessment of the
Climate System
Foci



The determination of the temporal and spatial
patterns of climate variations
The determination of the extent of useful skill in
predicting monthly to decadal variations in climate
The determination of the extent to which we can
design global models to correctly reproduce the
pdfs of sub-decadal variability in climate
Predictability Assessment of the
Climate System
Foci


The determination of the temporal and spatial
changes in these pdfs in a changing climate
[regional manifestations of climate change]
The development of data management and
analysis systems and of predictive models, and
contribution to the development of observational
data systems
IPCC WGI TAR
High-priority areas for action

Modelling and process studies:
Improve understanding of the mechanisms and factors
leading to changes in radiative forcing
Understand and characterise the important unresolved
processes and feedbacks, both physical and
biogeochemical, in the climate system
IPCC WGI TAR
High-priority areas for action

Modelling and process studies (ctd.):
Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate
projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble
simulations using complex models
Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and regional
climate models with a focus on the simulation of climate
variability, regional climate changes and extreme events
Link more effectively models of the physical climate and
the biogeochemical system, and in turn improve coupling
with descriptions of human activities