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1
Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling and its Applications
Provisional timetable 2017
Week 1
th
Monday, 19 June
8.45-9.30
9.30-10.00
10.00-11.00
11.00-11.30
11.30-12.30
12.30-1.15
1.15-2.00
2.00-3.00
3.00-3.30
3.30-4.50
5.00-6.15
6.30-8.00
Registration
Introduction
Lecture
Lecture
Lecture
Practical
Guest lecture
Introduction to the course
1. Introduction to the epidemiology of infections
Coffee break
2. Why bother with modelling?
Course lunch
Introduction to the computing network
3. Basic methods for setting up models I – difference equations
Coffee break
3. Setting up and interpreting simple models (measles in Excel)
Guest lecture
Reception
Tuesday, 20th June
9.00-10.00
10.00-10.30
10.30-12.00
12.00-1.00
1.00-2.00
2.00-3.00
3.00-3.30
3.30-4.55
5.05-6.00
Lecture
Practical
Discussion
Lecture
Practical
Guest lecture
4. Basic methods for setting up models II – differential equations
Coffee break
4. Setting up and interpreting simple models in Berkeley Madonna
Lunch break
Maths refresher (optional)
5. The natural dynamics of infectious diseases
Coffee break
5. Analysing the dynamics of infectious diseases
Guest lecture
Wednesday, 21st June
9.00-10.00 Lecture
10.00-10.30
10.30-11.55 Practical
12.05-1.00
1.00-2.00
2.00-3.00
3.00-3.30
3.30-5.00
5.15+
Lecture
Lecture
Practical
6. Review (optional)
Coffee break
7. Further practice in setting up models in Berkeley Madonna – modelling
influenza transmission
8. Applying modelling techniques to analyse seroprevalence data
Lunch break
9. Fitting models to data
Coffee break
8/9. Estimating forces of infection by fitting models to seroprevalence data
Optional social outing (walk)
Thursday, 22nd June
9.00-10.30
10.30-11.00
11.00-12.00
12.00-12.15
12.15-12.45
12.45-1.30
1.30-2.15
2.15-3.45
3.45-4.05
4.05–5.15
5.15-6.15
Practical
Lecture
Guest lecture
Practical
Group work
Pub quiz
10. Contrasting the effects of rubella vaccination between high and low
transmission settings
Coffee break
11. Methods for incorporating non-random mixing into models
Introduction to the group work exercise
Group photo
Lunch break
Guest lecture
11. Simulating the effects of non-random mixing on transmission and control
Coffee break
12. Work on the group work exercise
Pub quiz (optional)
2
Week 1 (cont)
rd
Friday 23 June
9.00–10.30 Group work
10.30-11.00
11.00-11.55 Lecture
11.55-12.30 Lunch
12.30-1.45 Guest lecture
1.45-3.00
Practical
3.00-3.30
3.30-4.55
5.05-6.15
6.15+
Paper
discussion
Guest lecture
13. Work on the group work exercise (Flu/Ebola)
Coffee break
14. Estimating basic reproduction numbers for non-randomly mixing
populations
Guest lecture
14. Calculating basic reproduction numbers for non-randomly mixing
populations
Coffee break
15. Topical paper discussion
R0 (Hans Heesterbeek)
Optional social outing – meal + Eye
Week 2
th
Monday, 26 June
9.00-10.00
10.00-10.30
10.30-11.25
11.35-1.00
1.00-2.00
2.00-3.00
3.00-3.30
3.30-5.00
Lecture
5.15-6.00
Guest lecture
Lecture
Practical
Lecture
Practical
16. Review (optional)
Coffee break
17. Introduction to stochastic modelling and its applications
17. Setting up stochastic models of outbreaks
Lunch break/modelling clinic
18. Using health economics in infectious disease modelling
Coffee break
18. Health economics and sensitivity analysis: Cost-effectiveness of seasonal
influenza vaccination
Guest lecture
Tuesday, 27th June
9.00-10.15
Practical
10.15-10.30
10.30-11.25 Lecture
11.35-1.00 Practical
1.00-2.00
2.00-3.30
Practical
3.30-4.00
4.00-5.30
Groupwork
19. Setting up discrete-time stochastic models in Berkeley Madonna
(modelling nosocomial transmission)
Coffee break
20. Network modelling
20. Network modelling
Lunch break/modelling clinic
21. Applications of stochastic models: estimating Rn for eliminated and
emerging diseases
Coffee break
22. Groupwork (Flu/Ebola)
3
Week 2 (cont)
th
Wednesday, 28 June
9.00-10.30 Groupwork
23. Groupwork (Flu/Ebola)
10.30-11.00
Coffee break
11.00-11.55 Lecture
24. An introduction to real-time modelling
12.05-1.00 STI/Vet lecture 25. Simple sexually-transmitted 26. Applications in veterinary epidemiology:
infection model
Spatial transmission and meta-population
models
1.00-2.00
Lunch break/modelling clinic Lunch break/modelling clinic
2.00-3.30
3.30-3.50
3.50-4.50
5.00-6.00
STI practical/
Vet practical
HIV/MAL
lecture
Lecture
(optional)
25. Simple sexually-transmitted 26. Applications of models to veterinary
infection models
epidemiology and zoonoses
Coffee break
Coffee break
27. Modelling HIV transmission 28.Modelling malaria transmission and
and control
control
29. Fitting models to data II - numerical optimisation and sensitivity analysis
6.45+
Optional social outing (theatre)
Thursday, 29th June
9.00-10.00 Lecture
10.00-10.30
10.30-11.55 PD/MAL
practical
12.05-1.00 TB /RT Lecture
1.00-2.00
2.00-3.30
3.30-3.50
3.50-5.15
30. An introduction to phylodynamics
Coffee break
Coffee break
30. The applications of
28 (cont). The Ross-Macdonald model
phylodynamics
31. Models for the transmission 32. The applications of real-time modelling
dynamics of M tuberculosis
Lunch break/modelling clinic Lunch break/modelling clinic
TB/RT practical 31. Modelling M tuberculosis
32. The applications of real-time modelling
transmission and disease
Coffee break
Group work
33. Work on the group work exercise (Flu/Ebola)
Friday, 30th June
9.00-11.00
11.00-11.30
11.30-11.50
11.50-12.30
12.30-1.30
1.30
Groupwork
Groupwork
Discussion
Lunch
34. Poster presentations
Coffee break
35. Conclusion to the groupwork exercise
Course evaluation
Course lunch
END OF COURSE
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