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The Impact of Stricter Standards
on CO2 Emission Across Industries
School of Economics and Management
Beihang University
Dongwen Tian
2017.06.21
Introduction
Methodology and data
Results
Conclusions
1
•
Introduction
The CO2 emissions with the increasing greenhouse effect is now the
global concern
•
China has become the largest CO2 emitter in the world, and has
implemented many policies to control it
•
The reduction of the emissions will inevitably influence the growth
of GDP
•
However, Chinese government is making its effort to control the
emissions
1
Introduction
Policies implemented in China
•
The 11th five-year plan (2006)
to improve the production and consumption structure and build a stable, economic,
clean and safe energy supply system
•
China’s national programme to address climate change (2007)
Clarified the specific objectives, principles, key industries and actions to cope with
the climate change
•
China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change (each year
since 2008)
Introduced various methods to control the emissions across industries
•
The 12th five-year plan (2011)
To control the emissions and establish the low-carbon product standards
2
Methodology and data
IOA (input-output analysis): to estimate the emissions across 17
manufacturing industries in China (2000-2014)
Direct Carbon Emissions Coefficient
The emissions of various types of energy (including coal, coke, crude oil,
gasoline, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, natural gas) are calculated based on the
equation provided by IPCC:
  NCV  CEF
2
Methodology and data
net calorific value
NCV
China Energy Statistical Yearbook
CO2 emission factor
CEF
2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories
Direct Carbon Emissions Coefficient
kg(CO2)/kg(energy)
Coal
Coke
Crude oil
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
Fuel oil
Natural gas
2.055
3.043
3.065
2.985
3.088
3.161
3.2 37
1.996
2
Method and data
The direct carbon emission of an industry:
E d  i coni
i

the emission factor
con the consumption of different types of energy of an industry
•
Collect the output data of selected industries from World InputOutput Table from WIOD
•
With the carbon emission and output data, get the direct carbon
emission coefficient, reflecting the emission per unit output
2
Methodology and data
Complete Emission Coefficient
get the following equation from the IO model:
x
x = Ax + y
(1)
B  (I  A)1  I
(2)
Cf  Cd [(I  A)1  I]
(3)
the output of an economy
A the direct consuming coefficient matrix
Cd the direct carbon emission coefficient
B the complete consuming coefficient matrix
Cf the complete emission coefficient
2
Methodology and data
Data:
•
consumption of various types of energy: China Energy
Statistical Yearbook
•
input-output data: WIOD
•
trade data: UNComtrade
Observation Duration: 2000-2014
2
Methodology and data
Addressing industry classification differences across divergent
datasets
1. China Energy Statistical Yearbook before and after 2011: make
adjustments to get a unique classification
2. Input-Output table - China Energy Statistical Yearbook: make
adjustments
3. The classification got above - SITC Rev.3: correspondence by
Sheng Bin (2002)
2
Methodology and data
•
The results are not unique
•
Adopt the decomposition by Erick Dietzenbacher and Bart Los
(1998)
•
The change of the emissions can be represented as:
Q  CL0 F0 S0  C1LF0 S0  C1L1FS0  C1L1F1S0
or:
Q  CL1F1S1  C0 LF1S1  C0 L0 FS1  C0 L0 F0S
2
Methodology and data
The 4 effects:
1
Q  (CL0 F0 S0  CL1F1S1 )
2
direct carbon emission technique effect
1
 (C1LF0 S0  C0 LF1S1 )
2
input-output technique effect
1
 (C1 L1FS0  C0 L0 FS1 )
2
scale effect
1
 (C1 L1 F1S  C0 L0 F0 S )
2
composition effect
3
•
Results
Analyze the embodied CO2 emissions in export of
17 manufacturing industries
•
Divide the change into 4 parts (SDA methods)
•
To report the results clearer, take 6 industries for
example
3
Results
Fig1 The Embodied CO2 Emission (2000-2014)
600
Manufacture of Textile,Wearing,Leather
and Related Products
500
Manufacture of Electrical Machinery and
Apparatus
400
Manufacture of Furniture and other
Manufacture
300
Manufacture of Computers,
Communication and Other Electronic
Equipment
200
Other Manufacture of Machinery
100
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials
and Chemical Products
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3
Results
Fig2 The Direct Carbon Emission Technique Effect
60
40
Manufacture of Textile,Wearing,Leather and
Related Products
20
Manufacture of Electrical Machinery and Apparatus
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Manufacture of Furniture and other Manufacture
-20
-40
Manufacture of Computers, Communication and
Other Electronic Equipment
-60
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and
Chemical Products
-80
Other Manufacture of Machinery
-100
The Impact of Policy on Direct Carbon Emission Technique Effect
Unit: Mt
Industries
2007
2011
Manufacture of Electrical Machinery and Apparatus
Manufacture of Textile, Wearing, Leather and Related Products
Manufacture of Computers, Communication and Other Electronic Equipment
Manufacture of Basic Metal
Manufacture of Furniture and other Manufacture
Other Manufacture of Machinery
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products
Manufacture of Metal Products
Manufacture of Transport Equipment
Manufacture of Rubber and Plastics Products
Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products
Manufacture of Foods, Beverages and Tobacco
Processing of Petroleum, Coking and Processing of Nuclear Fuel
Manufacture of Paper and Paper Products
Processing of Timber, Manufacture of Wood, Bamboo, Rattan, Palm, and
Straw Products
Manufacture of Medicines
Printing and Reproduction of Recording Media
-39.0084
-37.4590
-32.4861
-26.9742
-25.8066
-23.2055
-19.7342
-16.1244
-13.0731
-8.45348
-5.22916
-3.24017
-2.26023
-1.68533
-18.7347
-7.32803
-7.27106
-8.0618
-8.06132
-8.82455
-2.48799
-5.49650
-6.39260
-1.98868
-1.84048
-0.55965
-1.47626
-0.61271
-1.34080
-0.16083
-1.01297
-0.49432
-0.07882
-0.38504
3
Results
Fig3 The Input-Output Technique Effect
60
Manufacture of Textile,Wearing,Leather and
Related Products
40
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and
Chemical Products
20
Processing of Petroleum, Coking and
Processing of Nuclear Fuel
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Printing and Reproduction of Recording
Media
-20
Manufacture of Medicines
-40
Manufacture of Computers, Communication
and Other Electronic Equipment
-60
The Impact of Policy on Input-Output Technique Effect
Unit:Mt
Industries
The impact in 2006
Manufacture of Computers, Communication and Other Electronic Equipment
Manufacture of Textile, Wearing, Leather and Related Products
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.
Manufacture of Electrical Machinery and Apparatus
Manufacture of Transport Equipment
Manufacture of Furniture and other Manufacture
Manufacture of Metal Products
Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products
Manufacture of Rubber and Plastics Products
Manufacture of Basic Metal
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products
Manufacture of Foods, Beverages and Tobacco
Manufacture of Paper and Paper Products
Processing of Timber, Manufacture of Wood, Bamboo, Rattan, Palm, and
Straw Products
Manufacture of Medicines
Printing and Reproduction of Recording Media
Processing of Petroleum, Coking and Processing of Nuclear Fuel
-50.16908429
-16.52394149
-13.35607896
-13.20908489
-7.741291194
-6.136039361
-4.892446087
-4.192773484
-3.123142541
-2.859727388
-2.453539618
-1.439742958
-1.126969622
-1.024964910
-0.650035547
-0.484915074
-0.362959975
3
Results
Fig4 The Scale Effect
120
100
80
60
40
Manufacture of Textile,Wearing,Leather
and Related Products
Manufacture of Electrical Machinery and
Apparatus
Manufacture of Furniture and other
Manufacture
20
0
Manufacture of Computers, Communication
and Other Electronic Equipment
-20
Other Manufacture of Machinery
-40
-60
-80
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials
and Chemical Products
3
•
Results
No common tendency in composition effect across
industries: the proportion of some industries
increased, while that of others decreased
•
Obtain total composition effect across 17
manufacturing industries to find the influences
3
Results
Fig5 The Composition Effect
60
40
20
0
2001
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Industries
Manufacture of Foods,Beverages and Tobacco
Manufacture of Computers, Communication and Other Electronic
Equipment
Manufacture of Furniture and other Manufacture
Manufacture of Medicines
Processing of Timber,Manufacture of
Wood,Bamboo,Rattan,Palm,and Straw Products
Manufacture of Textile,Wearing,Leather and Related Products
Printing and Reproduction of Recording Media
Manufacture of Transport Equipment
Manufacture of Paper and Paper Products
Processing of Petroleum, Coking and Processing of Nuclear Fuel
Other Manufacture of Machinery
Manufacture of Rubber and Plastics Products
Manufacture of Electrical Machinery and Apparatus
Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products
Manufacture of Metal Products
Manufacture of Basic Metal
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products
complete emission composition composition
coefficient(kg/$US)
in 2008
in 2009
0.822991464
2.20%
2.48%
1.071265843
20.24%
22.04%
1.168669010
1.196966938
13.54%
0.58%
14.00%
0.73%
1.199181778
0.58%
0.57%
1.261232709
1.573029054
1.736641502
1.813952340
1.849853737
1.898443523
2.101171691
2.108339425
2.290608398
2.567848774
2.607778583
2.667433121
16.43%
0.21%
4.92%
0.53%
1.53%
8.49%
2.28%
11.49%
1.72%
4.05%
6.43%
4.79%
17.67%
0.23%
4.99%
0.62%
1.17%
8.27%
2.44%
11.96%
1.85%
3.74%
3.02%
4.23%
3
•
Results
The financial crisis at the end of 2008 and its impact reflected
clearly in 2009
•
The export composition was improved in 2009, and the
emissions was reduced by the effect
•
To make more comprehensive, sum the proportion of 9
industries with lower complete emission effect in 2009, find
•
it increased from 59.21% to 63.33%
•
while the proportion of the other 8 industries with higher
coefficients declined from 40.79% to 36.67%
4
Conclusions
Decomposing the change of trade embodied CO2 emissions in into 4 parts,
conclude:
• The 11th five-year plan made firms to employ low-carbon input to reduce
the emissions
• The 12th five-year plan forced firms to reduce emissions by using more
cleaner energy and upgrading techniques
• Firms with low technique were forced to exit the market
• However, the impacts of policies were different across industries
• Although financial crisis did do harm to the economy, it seemed to have
reduced the emissions by improving export composition
Thank You!