Download George on Net Assessments

Net Assessments: provide a current analysis of a country or issue.
Structure:
1. Imperatives
2. Grand Strategy
3. Strategy
4. Tactics
5. Country Net Assessment (1 paragraph)
How to get there?
First, the fixed conditions of the nation must be addressed.
List of fixed conditions:
 geographical analysis - analyzes all dimensions of a nation from a fixed
historical perspective. These fixed characteristics defines the underlying dynamic
of a nation over time.
o physical geography
o demography
o economy
Second, description of the strategic imperatives. Previous geopolitical analysis
gives a framework for examining the requirements for securing a nation. Now we
have to list a set of imperatives that a nation must pursue in order to assure its
security. Previous fixed conditions must be applied to current circumstances.
 strategic imperatives (examples):
o Brazil: Protect the coast; Extend into the Rio de la Plata Basin; Selectively
expand into the Brazilian interior; Challenge the Atlantic power.
o Peru: Establish port with sufficient water supplies on coast (Lima/Callao);
Establish lines of supply to interior of continent and begin resource
extraction; Secure the coastline.
o Egypt: Protect the Nile Basin to Aswan, particularly delta; Defend
Alexandria; Control and manage Suez Canal; Maintain Sinai as a buffer.
Here we should pay attention to strategic imperatives of neighbors that overlap
Paraguay's strategic imperatives. Consider strategic imperatives of Brazil,
Bolivia, Argentina and the USA.
Third, understand variable conditions: boundaries vary, international situation
of countries varies. Fixed conditions (fixed variables) must be applied to current
conditions. Understanding the variable conditions will allow us to formulate a
grand strategy. The grand strategy is the general strategy a state must use to
achieve its strategic imperatives. Consider the strengths and weakness of the
state at the current time and how it interplays between its neighbors and other
more distant nations projecting power into the region.
 grand strategy (examples):
Brazil: Reach diplomatic understanding with dominant Atlantic power (currently
US) that addresses mutual interest in protecting the Atlantic coastline from extrahemispheric threat (Basic Monroe doctrine).
Peru: Establish military dominance of Lima. Lima lies in the Rimac valley, at the
mouth of three different rivers coming off of the Andes. It was chosen and settled
by the Spaniards after the conquest of the Inca, in 1535. The city just to the north
of Lima is Callao, a critical South American port.
Fourth, strategy. Strategy designed to maintain the highest status on the
strategic imperatives. The primary goal of this treatment is to define the current
dynamics. Always bear in mind that strategy is interactive. Unlike fixed
conditions, it is dynamic and variable. Detailed analysis of current:
o Economic (trade patterns)
o Military (military systems and cultures)
o Political situation (political cohesion not only of the nation you are
dealing with, but will all the nations it interacts with significantly)
o Correlation of power with neighboring countries or other nations it is
involved with.
 strategy (examples):
o Brazil: Keep decent relations with US, but use economic and diplomatic
ties and the development of indigenous naval capabilities to avoid
complete subordination to the United States.
o Peru: Achieved. (Do we have to say if the strategy was achieved or not?)
Lima is the heart and lungs of the country. It produces more than 50
percent of the country's GDP and houses one third of the population.
Fifth, tactics (tactical level) in which particularly banking system issues, air
defense systems, political factions must be analyzed. What is the government
doing to achieve the strategic imperatives.
 tactics (examples):
Brazil: Expand economic ties with Europe, China, Africa and Japan while
keeping cool with US. Use pre-salt project to develop navy and extend territorial
sea limit. Maintain South Atlantic foothold through Antarctica stake.
Sixth, the net assessment itself. The ultimate purpose of the net assessment is
divided into two parts: (1) full understanding of the current condition of the nation
relative to its strategic imperatives and the alignment of grand strategy, strategy
and tactics with those imperatives. And (2) to provide a clear understanding of
the strategic and tactical dynamics that are underway at the moment.
 net assessment (examples):
o Brazil: Brazil's extensive geographic buffers and the decline of Argentina
over the past decade have together provided Brazil with the space and
time to develop internally and emerge as a regional player. Brazil's real
geopolitical opportunity lies in the Rio de la Plata river basin and steps are
being taken to deepen Brazilian influence in the buffer states of Paraguay,
Uruguay and Bolivia at the expense of Argentina. But Brazil's security from
outside threat is as much a curse as it is a blessing; Brazil's lack of
external threat and thus lack of urgency in achieving its imperatives
means Brazil will continue to struggle in prioritizing its goals, resulting in
misguided ventures. Brazil has the luxury of time to make mistakes so
long as Argentina remains weak. Even if Brazil were able to focus itself on
the Rio de la Plata, it still faces a cultural and linguistic barrier with
Spanish America and a long-term challenge from the United States,
whose interest lies in maintaining a balance of power in the southern cone
region.
o Peru: Though there is scattered population in the north and in the
highlands, Peru is essentially a city-state with a great deal of territory to
patrol and extract wealth from Lima being located in a desert and having
one of the continent's most important ports, Lima is a natural trading hub
for resources leaving the Andean highlands -- in particular the Altiplano,
which cannot really be reached by any other major city -- and its wealth
and prosperity has allowed it to use military dominance to control
mountainous territory. With significant infrastructural challenges, very little
in the way of arable swaths of land, and threats mainly emanating from the
sea, Peru remains unlikely to develop any great influence in the region,
but retains the potential for relative prosperity.