Download June Quarter 2008 - Department of Treasury WA

ECONOMIC POLICY DIVISION
ECONOMIC NOTE
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS – JUNE QUARTER 2008
All data refers to seasonally adjusted, Chain Volume Measures, unless otherwise stated.
Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3% during the June quarter 2008, after growth of
0.7% in the March quarter 2008. The 0.3% growth rate was the slowest national quarterly growth
recorded since the December quarter 2004 (which also recorded 0.3% growth). Over the year to the
June quarter 2008, GDP grew by 2.7%.
The industry that made the greatest contribution to GDP growth during the June quarter 2008 (for the
second consecutive) was property and business services, which added 0.3 percentage points to growth,
followed by transport and storage (contributing 0.2 percentage points). Agriculture, forestry and fishing
detracted the most from GDP growth during the quarter (detracting 0.2 percentage points), followed by
finance and insurance, and government administration and defence (which both detracted 0.1
percentage points respectively).
In terms of expenditure components, the largest domestic contributor to GDP growth was business
investment, which added 0.8 percentage points to growth. This was followed by public consumption,
which added 0.2 percentage points. Components to make the largest detraction from growth during the
quarter were changes in inventories (0.5 percentage points), and household consumption and ownership
transfer costs (which both detracted 0.1 percentage points). This is the first quarterly decline in the real
volume of national household consumption since the September quarter 1993.
Australia’s terms of trade grew by 13.1% during June quarter 2008, the largest quarterly increase since
the March quarter 1973. Australia’s terms of trade rose 15.6% over the year to the June quarter 2008, a
follows year-ended growth of 5.6% and 6.5% respectively over the previous two financial years.
Farm GDP contracted in the June quarter 2008 by 7.7%, while non-farm GDP (which makes up the bulk
of total GDP) grew by 0.5%. Over the past year, the growth rates for the farm and non-farm GDP were
13.1% and 2.5%, respectively.
Real net national disposable income (a broad measure of change in overall economic welfare) grew by
3.6% over the June quarter 2008, and 6.6% over the year. In per capita terms, disposable income grew by
3.1% over the quarter and by 4.9% over the year. The GDP implicit price deflator, (a measure of
underlying inflationary pressures across the Australian economy), grew by 3.2% during the quarter and
6.7% through the year1.
G R O S S D O M E S T IC P R O D U C T
A u s tra lia
3 .0 %
12%
2 .5 %
10%
2 .0 %
8%
1 .5 %
6%
1 .0 %
4%
0 .5 %
2%
0 .0 %
0%
-0 .5 %
-2 %
-1 .0 %
Ju n -9 8
J u n -0 0
J u n -0 2
Q u a rte rly G ro w th (L H S )
J u n -0 4
J u n -0 6
-4 %
J u n -0 8
Y e a r E n d e d G ro w th (R H S )
S o u rc e : A B S C a t 5 2 0 6 .0
1
This is a much broader measure than the CPI, as it incorporates price information for all categories of the national
economy (e.g. business investment, household consumption, exports, and others), whereas the CPI only
measures consumer price inflation. It is also calculated with a different methodology to the CPI.
TREASURY & FINANCE 197 ST GEORGES TERRACE, PERTH WA 6000 TELEPHONE (08) 9278 6704 FAX (08) 9481 0652
Details
Of the main components of GDP:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Private consumption fell by 0.1% over the quarter, but was up 2.9% over the year.
Dwelling investment (excluding ownership transfer costs) rose by 0.5% during the March quarter
and by 2.6% through the year. Ownership transfer costs fell by 4.5% over the quarter and by
14.4% over the four quarters to the June quarter 2008.
Business investment levels rose by 4.6% in the June quarter, including an 11.3% rise in machinery
and equipment (the largest category of business investment – equal to about half of the total).
Private gross fixed capital formation (business investment) was the fastest growing component of
GDP, and made the largest contribution to total growth.
Public consumption rose by 1.2% over the June quarter and by 4.6% in year-ended terms, and
Public investment rose by 2.4% over the quarter and 7.2% over the year.
Exports of goods and services rose by 2.7% in the June quarter, with Imports of goods and
services rising by 2.2%. Overall, net exports made zero contribution to GDP growth in the June
quarter 2008. In year-ended terms, exports rose by 6.1%, while imports grew by 13.0%.
Changes in inventories detracted $962 million from GDP in the June quarter (in nominal terms).
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Final Consumption Expenditure
-Private
-Public
Gross Fixed Capital Expenditure
-Business Investment
-Dwelling Investment
-Ownership Transfer Costs
-Public investment
Domestic Final Demand
Change in Inventories
External Demand
Exports of Goods and Services
Less: Imports of Goods and
Services
Net Exports
Statistical Discrepancy
Gross Domestic Product
June Qtr 2008
(Current Prices)
$ Million
Quarterly Change
%
Year-ended Change
%
159,726
51,375
-0.1
1.2
2.9
4.6
46,579
17,617
4,635
13,443
4.6
0.5
-4.5
2.4
10.8
2.6
-14.4
7.2
293,375
-962
0.9
n/a
4.3
n/a
67,678
2.7
6.1
67,119
559
2.2
n/a
13.0
n/a
384
n/a
n/a
293,355
0.3
2.7
Note: All data is from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Catalogue number 5206.0 – Australian National
Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Jun 2008. All growth rates are expressed in real, seasonally
adjusted terms unless otherwise stated, however levels ($ Million) are in nominal (current price) terms, which
include both price and volume effects. All annual growth rates are expressed in year-ended terms, which
measures the change in one quarter of one year on the corresponding quarter in the previous year. ABS National
Accounts data are subject to revision each quarter. The reference year for all real (i.e. chain volume) data is
2005-06.
3 September 2008
For further information contact Andrew Wilkinson on 9278 6715, or e-mail at [email protected]