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Climate Change: Impacts and Responses Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past Sample exercises and activities Climate Change: Impacts and Responses Sample exercises and activities Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past Exercise – Using causal diagrams to explore reasons for observed changes and perceptions Context So far, in most semi-arid locations in Sub Saharan Africa where historical climate data (daily records for 30 or more years) has been analysed the record has indicated that: • Temperature has increased significantly, particularly since the 1960s. • Rainfall amounts and other rainfall characteristics continue to be variable, but with no clear trends. However, many people working in agriculture and rural development, including many famers, perceive that the rainfall amounts and timing have changed. There is therefore a difference between what meteorological data shows and some widely held perceptions. This is quite important and has implications. A possible explanation for this difference between perceptions and meteorological data is that because most farmers don’t record and measure rainfall, they rely on other observations. These include observations of crop yields, food availability in the local area, water levels in streams and wells. When these are lower than what they used to be, it is assumed that reduced rainfall is the cause. In addition, everyone is talking about climate change now (the press, NGOs, farmers themselves etc…), so it is natural to blame some of the observed changes on climate change. There are of course many other causes of reduced yields, less food availability, and lower water tables. For example, reduced yields can be caused by declining soil fertility. Research has demonstrated that soil fertility has been declining across many areas of SSA due to factors including little or no replacement of organic matter and reduced crop rotation. In some areas fertiliser inputs have become more expensive and are, therefore, used less. As population increases and there is greater pressure on land, people are farming in more marginal land that is less fertile and produces lower yields. Population increase also causes food shortages. Causes of declining water tables include greater extraction and use as well as lower infiltration and 1 Climate Change: Impacts and Responses Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past Sample exercises and activities retention as a result of vegetation loss and deterioration of soil structure. All this reduces yields and leads to greater hunger. It is important to take all of these influences into account to ensure that effective solutions are developed and implemented. If farmers and those that work to support agriculture (policy makers, development organisations, NGOs) think that climate change is the main or only cause, there is a danger of ‘going down the wrong road’ and think that these problems cannot be addressed because climate is outside the control of individuals and organisations. Soil fertility however is something that can be addressed by a farmer and organisations and policy can also help. Water use, overgrazing and vegetation change are also issues that can be addressed by local communities. It is therefore important that policy focuses on these issues in addition to climate change. A very useful way for students, and others, to explore this is by constructing a causal diagram. Developing a causal diagram A causal diagram can be developed by a group of students, communities or farmers (literate or non/semi-literate) using participatory methods. It can be a powerful tool, partly because participants already have all the information and knowledge but have not structured or thought about it before. Furthermore, it is a method that not only improves shared understanding of the causes of problems, but helps to identify what actions can be taken by participants and others to address the problems. Causal diagrams can be created using the following steps. Materials You will need a large sheet of paper and a marker pen. Procedure 1. Identify with the participants the main ‘end problem’ or issue to focus on (e.g. hunger / reduced food availability) and write it or use a symbol to represent it at the bottom of the flip chart/space that you will use to draw the diagram. In our example in Figure 1 the end problem is, “Low income from cotton”. 2. Ask participants to discuss and make a list of possible causes of this problem. 3. Identify ‘immediate’ causes of the problem (not just from the list) and put each of these on the diagram with symbols. Immediate causes are ones that directly influence the problem, without any intermediate steps in between. In 2 Climate Change: Impacts and Responses Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past Sample exercises and activities our example in Figure 1 the immediate causes are “Low grade” and “Low yield”. 4. Put arrows on the diagram from the immediate causes to the problem. 5. Next, identify the causes of each immediate cause and add them to the diagram. These are called ‘intermediary causes’ Use arrows to connect the intermediary causes to the immediate causes to show the direction of cause and effect. In our example in Figure 1 the intermediary causes are “Poor quality”, “Many pests”, “Poor emergence” and “No manure”. 6. Continue in the same way adding causes and arrows. 7. The problems at the edge of the diagram are ‘root causes’. If they are solved they should solve all the other problems! Some perhaps can be solved – discuss which, how and by whom. 8. For root problems that cannot be solved, work back in from the edge until you reach a problem/cause that can be addressed. Highlight the positive effects of the solutions on the diagram. Having completed the diagram, ask the participants to discuss: • The causes of the main problem. Which do they think have the greatest effect? • Where would they look for evidence to identify which have the greatest effect? • What are the practical implications of this for policy and practice? Some hints in conducting a causal diagram • Do not put the same problem/cause on the diagram more than once. • Try not to put ‘lack of money’ on the diagram. • Use something you can redraw for lines so you can rearrange your diagram (like a pencil or string). • Use symbols that are easily remembered. • The role of the researcher is to facilitate the drawing of the diagram by the participants. The ideas, causes and effects should all come from the participants. 3 Climate Change: Impacts and Responses Topic 4: Climate Change in the Recent Past Sample exercises and activities Figure 1: An example causal diagram for “Low income from cotton” (in this diagram the immediate causes and intermediary causes have used the same symbol 4