Download Estimating regional sources and sinks of CO2 for North America

Estimating regional
sources and sinks of CO2
for North America
Using NOAA-CMDL measurements and the
TM5 model
Wouter Peters, NOAA CMDL
TRANSCOM May 13th, 2003
Acknowledgements
Maarten Krol
Pieter Tans
Lori Bruhwiler
Sander Houweling
Peter Bergamaschi
Peter van Velthoven
Frank Dentener
Jan Fokke Meirink
John Miller
Outline




My background
The TM5 global & regional model
The expanded NOAA-CMDL network
Plans for inversions
Kalman filter
 4d-var

My background



Master’s in meteorology and physical
oceanography from University of Utrecht
Thesis work on LBA-CLAIRE, airborne
campaign in Suriname, South America.
PhD on tropospheric ozone in the tropics
with Jos Lelieveld and Maarten Krol.
TM3 global model





5x3.75 degrees, 19 layers
ECMWF meteorology (1979-1993, and 19941999)
Full chemistry (O3-NOx-CO-CH4, lumped
NMHC’s) + coupled photolysis
Extensive budgets of all processes
Fast parallel version (<2 CPU hrs/yr) allowing
multi-year simulations or sensitivity tests
TM5: the next generation

New advection algorithm (Berkvens, Botchev,
Krol, Verwer, 2001) allows online nesting of
fine-scaled grids within a global domain.
TM5 model – coarse grid
TM5 model – medium grid
TM5 model – fine grid
TM5 model – vertical resolution
25 vertical
layers
Hybrid coordinates
values for US
standard atmosphere
p [hPa]
h [km]
0.0
1.0
3.0
7.1
16.8
39.6
60.2
87.7
122.6
165.1
215.0
272.1
336.0
406.1
480.8
558.0
635.3
710.3
780.3
843.3
897.1
940.6
973.0
994.7
1007.3
1013.3
inf
48.2
39.3
33.3
27.6
22.1
19.1
16.9
14.8
13.0
11.3
9.8
8.4
7.1
5.9
4.8
3.8
2.9
2.1
1.5
1.0
0.62
0.34
0.16
0.05
0.00
~ 8 layers stratosphere
~ 12 layers free
troposphere
~ 5 layers PBL
TM5




Contributions from IMAU, KNMI, JRC, and
in the near future NOAA.
Most important improvements:
meteorological input, coding, chemical
boundary conditions.
Special emphasis: ERA40=> re-analysis of
ECMWF for 1957-2001.
Resolution up to ECMWF operational
TM5 – latest developments


Adjoint version of TM5 under con struction
4d-var scheme from ECMWF implemented
and working
Kalman filter (Baker, Bruhwiler, Tans) to be
implemented
222Rn
simulations at different resolutions
Courtesy: H. Sartorius
IAR-Freiburg
My plans





Forward modeling of CO2 + isotopes, SF6
Inverse modeling of CO2 + isotopes
Regional scale sources/sinks over the US
Using vertical profile/ tall tower data
Possibly assist in planning and optimizing
network design/sampling strategies
NOAA CMDL goals
??????
Current network
2005 network ?
2010 network ??
Proposed TM5 grid
Proposed TM5 grid
Denver
Aspen
Grand
Junction
Pueblo
Durango
Regions for inversion
Fixed-lag Kalman smoother





‘Batch’ inversion technique using n-months of
information at a time (3 < n < 9)
Calculates new fluxes and error estimates for
xJ=0 (where x= fluxes and J = cost function)
Balances prior flux estimates against new
information from observations using prior flux
and model-data mismatch
Computationally efficient for multi-decadal
inversions
Details: David Baker’s talk tomorrow
4d-var
o
o
o
o
Uses steepest descend and the calculated
value of xJ to minimize J
value of xJ calculated by adjoint model
Iterative scheme to converge to xJ = 0
Useful for short time periods and many
observations
Seasonal CO2 Flux Estimates
Gt/yr
Land
Gt/yr
Ocean
NCEP (1984-2000)
ECMWF (1981-1993)
PRIOR
Annual Average Flux Estimates
Land
NCEP (1984-2000)
ECMWF (1981-1992)
PRIOR
Ocean
Annual Average Flux Estimates with Cyclic
Meteorology
Land
NCEP (1984-2000)
NCEP (1990)
PRIOR
Ocean
Interface:
Mixture between
‘fine’ and
‘coarse’:
=
+
Interface
Zoom
XYZV VZYX
xyz vzy vzy xyz
v x
x v
Write
BC
Interface
Zoom
Update
parent