Download - Food Security Cluster

Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Food Security Update
28 July 2016
The bulk of the country will in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
June to September 2016
October 2016 to January 2017
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
1
Lower than typical regional maize availability 2016-17
Zambia
South Africa
•
Carry over stocks
o
2.3 million Mt (mainly from imports)
•
Carry over stocks
o
667,500 Mt
•
2015-16 Production
o
7.73 million Mt (40% of ave)
•
2015-16 Production
• 2.87 million Mt (10% above 2015)
•
2016-17 Deficit
o
1.6 million Mt
•
2016-17 Surplus
o
634,700 Mt
•
Est. Exports
o
600,000 Mt
•
Est. Exports
o
167,000 Mt to Spt (old contracts)
•
Est. Imports
o
3.3 Million Mt (1ml Mt white, 2.2 MT yellow
•
Est. Imports
o
0 Mt
maize)
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
2
Higher than typical maize grain imports
• April-June 2016 maize
imports (174,000 MT) are
62% higher than same
time last year (107,000
MT)
• Of the April-June ‘16
imports, 45% from SA,
19% Zambia, the rest
(36%) from international
markets.
• Landing prices from
international markets
significantly higher than
from regional markets
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
3
Projected higher than average maize grain prices for 2016-17 marketing season
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
4
Key Assumptions for the June 1’6 to Jan ‘17 Outlook Period

Higher than normal cereal deficit – June 2016 to January 2017

Poor water availability: June to October

Normal to above normal rains: November 2016 to March 2017

Maize grain prices: higher than last year and 5-year

Maize meal prices: expected increase later in the consumption year

Livelihoods options: below average (cash crop sales, livestock sales, agric & non-agric labor &
self employment, remittances); also below average labor rates

Acute malnutrition: high and increasing

Inter-annual and emergency assistance: resource constraints
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
5
Critical water shortages in much of the south and marginal areas in
the north to impact on livelihoods
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
6
Below average typical livelihoods and coping options
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
7