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Long-term energy scenarios for
Estonia
2. workshop
7.+8. January 2013
1.
Welcome (Monday 7.1.2012: 10.00)
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2.
Inception report (10.30)
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3.
Oil Shale (Energy carriers group)
110% rule (Security of supply group)
Summary from day 1
Input from expert groups (Tuesday 8.1.2013: 9.00)
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6.
7.
Purpose and general discussion
Scenarios
Balmorel model
Stream model
Next step
Theme discussions: Estonia perspective (14.30-16.30)
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4.
5.
Translation
Consumption
Energy carriers (not covered above)
District heating
Next steps
Bilateral meeting with Elering + WEC about inception report
INCEPTION REPORT
Increasing amount of details
• Tender
– 5 pages
• Project description
– 12 pages
• Inception report (draft) + data report (draft)
– 28 + 67 pages
• Final inception report + data report + input
from expert groups
Scenarios
110%
Reference
CO2 market collapse
Market price for oil
shale
Liberal market
CO2 concern
Renewable energy
focus
Estonian EE
Single track scenarios
Combination scenario
Scenarios
110%
Reference
CO2 market collapse
Market price for oil
shale
Liberal market
CO2 concern
Renewable energy
focus
Estonian EE
Single track scenarios
Combination scenario
Scenarios
110%
Reference
CO2 market collapse
Market price for oil
shale
Liberal market
CO2 concern
Renewable energy
focus
Estonian EE
Single track scenarios
Combination scenario
Scenarios
Intenational
orientation
Liberal market
CO2 market collapse
Market price for oil
shale
Reference
CO2 concern
Environmetal
concern
Renewable energy
focus
Scenarios
• General comment to the scenario set-up
• Details about each of the six scenarios (1 reference and
five single-track scenarios)
• Agreement on how to describe Russia (CO2 target,
import tax) and the dynamic in the electricity trade
with Russia
• The expected developed in nuclear generation.
• Decision about the inclusion of CCS as an technology
option.
• Define the alternative to 110%
– 90%
– Capacity value for wind…
– 100% for all regions?
BALMOREL
Data
Model
Results
• Description of current system (Estonia + Model area)
• Development 2010-2020
• Technology catalogue
• Definition of input 2020-2050 (= definition of scenarios)
• Rules, e.g. 110% Estonian capacity
• Optimal solution for each scenario
• Time step (2020, 2022,…), Time steps per year (12*6=72 steps per year)
• Model based investments from 2020
• Electricity and district heating generation per area per technology
• Investments
• Electricity prices, fuel costs
• Emissions
Time steps: 1, 2 and 5 years
Predefined capital
2010
2015
2020
Model driven investments in generation and transmission
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Output
• Raw model results are extremely detailed
• Important to maintain overview!
– Study aggregated results
– Drill down to detailed results
• Operation of single unit
Results
• Difference between two scenarios, e.g.:
– Marked price for oil shale – Reference
– Liberalised market – Marked price for oil shale
• Investments in generation and transmission
– Per country: Which technology
• Operation (GWh, emissions, electricity prices)
– Per country
Difference: Impact of step
Estonia
Other Baltic
2030
2050
• Technical
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MW installed generation (total)
MW transmission
GWh generated (total)
CO2 emissions
• Economical
– Capital costs
– Fuel and operational cost
– Average electricity price
Nordic
German and NW Russia
Poland
and Belarus
Difference: Economic overview
2030
2050
Estonia
Other
Baltic
Nordic
German
and
Poland
NW
Russia
Total
Consumer
surplus
Generator
profit
TSO profit
Total
xxx
Balmorel
• A broad discussion with the goal to make all
stakeholders aware the type of model, the way
the model is planned to be used and type of
results. This includes the idea of endogenous
investments in generation and transmission
capacity from 2020 to 2050.
• Updated information about Estonia
• Suggested data for the entire model area (outside
Estonia and Russia).
• Discussion of how to model Russia.
STREAM
Stream
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Heat demand in household and service sector
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Development of building stock
New buildings (energy standards – are these complied with?)
Demolishment of existing buildings
Rates for renovation of existing buildings (cost and potentials)
Change in composition of building stock (e.g. multistory buildings => single-family house)
Demographic factors (e.g. rural => urban)
Heat supply in household and service sector
– Economic comparison of costs of energy of heat supply using different collective and
individual heating technologies
– For different types of buildings: multistory, single-family, new dwellings
– To determine scenarios for the expansion or contraction of district heating supply
– To determine supply of energy in areas not supplied by district heating
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Electricity demand in household and service sector
– Choice of methodology
– Historic trends, coupling with GDP, experience from other countries
– Bottom-up, vintage modeling: require information about stock of electrical equipment,
projections for their dissemination and development in specific demand
• Energy demand with industry
– Sector specific projections
– Historic trends per sector coupled with GDP
– Input from expert groups on expected future developments for most
important branches
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Transport sector
– Growth rates in the demand for transport (personkilometers)
– Coupling to GDP (historic trends),experience from other countries concerning
saturation in transport demand
– Development in efficiency of conventional combustion engine technologies
– Introduction rate for new technologies such as electric vehicles, Compressed
natural gas
– Modal-change (car => bus/train/…)
– Blending rates for biofuels
– Diesel produced from oil-shale
NEXT STEP
SUMMARY OF DAY 1
• Data report…
• Model investments from 2018
• Allow investments in CHP in heat-only district heating
• Nuclear
– Fixed development + Allow investments in nuclear after 2030
• Finland, Poland, Baltic states
• Include CCS
– Gradually from 2025
– Potential per country. No sites in Estonia
• Storage
– Allow investments in
• Heat storage (CHP)
• Pumped hydro storage
• Other technology (PHES)?
• Russia and Belarus
– 3 x 500 MW capacity + 700 MW to Kaliningrad
– Carbon leakage…
• Border tax reflecting CO2 price
• Oil shale
– Electricity generation from oil shale 100% sold on
market from 1.1.2013
– Delete Oil shale at market price?
• Alternative to 110%
– 0%
110%
CO2 market collapse
Reference
CO2 concern
Combination scenario
Renewable energy
focus
Liberal market
Scenarios
International
orientation
Liberal market
Environmental
concern
CO2 market collapse
Reference
CO2 concern
Renewable energy
focus
Next steps
Phase
Date
Initial scenario
16 Jan. 2013
set-up
30 Jan. 2013
15 Mar. 2013
Tasks
Final delivery from expert groups of input data and assumptions for reference
scenario and “single track” scenarios.
Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering.
Reference scenario note with preliminary results from modelling the reference
scenario.
Skype meeting with expert groups regarding interpretation of the reference
scenario
Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering.
01 Apr. 2013
Interim report with results for reference scenario and single track scenarios.
15 Feb. 2013
22 Feb. 2013
Scenario
calculations
08 Apr. 2013
23 Apr. 2013
07 May 2013
Conclusions
Meeting with expert groups:
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Discussion of results;
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Revision of “single track” scenarios;
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Agreement on relevant "combination scenario”.
Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering.
Draft final report
14 May 2013
Meeting with expert groups:
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Discussion of main conclusions;
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Identification of recommendations for important actions in the short-term in
order to achieve long-term goals and identification of important barriers.
31 May 2013
Final report and transfer of data and models.