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The Impact of Data Reliability on the Decision Making Process Simon Stromberg Senergy (GB) Limited Abstract: This presentation focuses on explaining the value of data in the decision making process and the role of data reliability in making that decision. The audience will learn about techniques that can be used to quantify the value of data, the role they play in informing our decisions, and how diagnostic reliability can impact those decisions, and will be of interest to engineers, geoscientists and their managers who need to justify the acquisition of new data. Calculating the value of information has to be understood within the context of the value of the decisions to be taken. This requires evaluation of the key project decisions and the uncertainties surrounding our knowledge about the state of nature. The state of nature is the true physical reality of the subsurface, but is unknown due to sparse and imperfect data. Therefore we deal in uncertainty, and not fact, and it is the uncertainty and relative reduction in uncertainty that impacts our decisions. Diagnostic data, for example petrophysical logging or geophysical attribute analysis, are used to reduce uncertainty. However, most data are not 100% reliable and the reliability of that data significantly impacts on the value calculations. For example, at 50% reliability, data has no intrinsic value – and this requires the use of Bayes Theorem to chart how the value of data changes with diagnostic reliability. Two examples from petrophysics are used to illustrate and explain the value assessment concepts: 1) the ability of LWD data to provide a diagnosis of overpressure impacting the decision to run intermediate casing; and 2) the use of new technology in predicting sand-face failure in shallow borehole sections. This presentation explains how the economic limits of data reliability are determined, and the one idea the audience will be able take away is how we can best characterise the diagnostic reliability and intrinsic dollar value of data to support decision analysis. Biography: Simon Stromberg is the Global Head of Petrophysics for Senergy and has more than 20 years of experience in geology, petrophysics and project management. He has experience of working for operators, consultancy services and specialist software companies including Shell and Hess. He has published and presented on a wide variety of subjects including sedimentology, geosteering, NMR processing and interpretation, thin bed analysis, low contrast pay, net reservoir calculation, decision analysis, uncertainty/risk analysis and value of information. More recently Simon has become involved in project management processes, particularly in understanding the value of petrophysical information in the decision making process. Simon is an associate editor for SPE Formation Evaluation and is committed to the education of young professionals and the dissemination of knowledge to a wide audience. He generally presents at 2 or 3 professional society meetings a year, most recently on the topics of risk and uncertainty, and delivers training courses to industry professionals, worldwide.