Download Document

• Cognitive Bias
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
List of biases in judgment and decision making - Common theoretical causes of
some cognitive biases
A 2012 Psychological Bulletin article
suggested that at least eight seemingly
unrelated biases can be produced by the
same information-theoretic generative
mechanism that assumes noisy information
processing during storage and retrieval of
information in human memory.Martin Hilbert
(2012) [http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/201127261-001 Toward a synthesis of cognitive
biases: How noisy information processing
can bias human decision making]
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias
Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes
lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate
judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is
broadly called irrationality.Baron, J
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias
1
Other cognitive biases are a “by-product”
of human processing limitations, resulting
from a lack of appropriate mental
mechanisms (bounded rationality), or
simply from a limited capacity for
information processing.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias
1
Moreover, Kahneman and Tversky (1996)
argue cognitive biases have efficient
practical implications for areas including
clinical judgment.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias - Overview
The notion of cognitive biases was
introduced by Amos Tversky and Daniel
Kahneman in 1972 and grew out of their
experience of people's
Numeracy#Innumeracy|innumeracy, or
inability to reason intuitively with the
greater orders of magnitude
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias - Overview
Alternatively, critics of Kahneman and
Tversky such as Gerd Gigerenzer argue
that heuristics should not lead us to
conceive of human thinking as riddled with
irrational cognitive biases, but rather to
conceive rationality as an adaptive tool
that is not identical to the rules of formal
logic or the probability calculus
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias - Types
Some cognitive biases belong to the
subgroup of attentional biases which refer
to the paying of increased attention to
certain stimuli. It has been shown, for
example, that people addicted to alcohol
and other drugs pay more attention to
drug-related stimuli. Common
psychological tests to measure those
biases are the Stroop Task and the Dotprobe paradigm|Dot Probe Task.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias - Types
1
The following is a list of the
more commonly studied
cognitive biases:
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias - Types
A 2012 Psychological Bulletin article suggests that at least 8
seemingly unrelated biases can be produced by the same
information-theoretic generative mechanism.Martin Hilbert (2012)
[http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2011-27261-001 Toward a synthesis
of cognitive biases: How noisy information processing can bias
human decision making] Psychological Bulletin 138(2), 211–237;
free access to the study here: martinhilbert.net/HilbertPsychBull.pdf
It is shown that noisy deviations in the memory-based information
processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into
subjective estimates (decisions) can produce List of cognitive
biases#Decision-making.2C belief and behavioral biases|regressive
conservatism, the Conservatism (belief revision)|belief revision
(Bayesian conservatism), illusory correlations, iIllusory superiority
(better-than-average effect) and worse-than-average effect,
subadditivity effect, List of cognitive biases#Decision-making.2C
belief and behavioral biases|exaggerated expectation,
overconfidence, and the hard–easy effect.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias - Practical significance
1
Cognitive biases are also related to the
persistence of superstition, to large social
issues such as prejudice, and they also
work as a hindrance in the acceptance of
scientific non-intuitive knowledge by the
public.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias - Reducing cognitive bias
1
Moreover, cognitive
biases can be
controlled
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias - Reducing cognitive bias
1
Although Cognitive Bias Modification can
refer to modifying cognitive processes in
healthy individuals, CBMT is a growing
area of evidence-based psychological
therapy, in which cognitive processes are
modified to relieve sufferingMacLeod, C.,
Mathews, A., Tata, P
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
List of cognitive biases
1
'Cognitive biases' are tendencies to think
in certain ways. Cognitive biases can lead
to systematic deviations from a standard
of rationality or good judgment, and are
often studied in psychology and behavioral
economics.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
List of cognitive biases
1
Such effects are called cognitive
biases
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Emotion in animals - Cognitive bias test
1
A cognitive bias is a pattern of deviation in
judgment, whereby inferences about other
animals and situations may be drawn in an
illogical fashion. Individuals create their
own “subjective social reality” from their
perception of the input. It refers to the
question Is the glass half empty or half
full?, used as an indicator of optimism or
pessimism.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Emotion in animals - Cognitive bias test
1
Cognitive biases have been shown in a
wide range of species including including
rats, dogs, rhesus macaques, sheep,
chicks, starlings and honeybees.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Name calling - As a cognitive bias in propaganda
Name calling is a
cognitive bias and a
technique to promote
propaganda
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive biases - Reducing cognitive bias
1
Moreover, cognitive biases can be
controlled
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive biases - Reducing cognitive bias
1
Although Cognitive Bias Modification can
refer to modifying cognitive processes in
healthy individuals, CBMT is a growing
area of evidence-based psychological
therapy, in which cognitive processes are
modified to relieve sufferingMacLeod, C.,
Mathews, A., Tata, P
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias modification
'Cognitive Bias Modification Therapy'
(CBMT) is sub-group of therapies within a
growing area of psychological therapies
based on modifying cognitive processes
with or without accompanying medication
and talk therapy, sometimes referred to as
Applied Cognitive Processing Therapies
(ACPT)
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias modification
1
Similarly, patient insight is not required
because CBM seeks to target the
underlying maintaining cognitive bias
directly; therefore, patient engagement is
likely to be easier
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias modification
Modifying Interpretation in a Clinically
Depressed Sample Using 'Cognitive Bias
Modification-Errors': A Double Blind
Randomized Controlled Trial. Cognitive
Therapy and Research, 1-14. doi:
10.1007/s10608-013-9571-y)
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias modification - Efficacy evidence base and other research
1
Cognitive bias modification for anxiety: current
evidence and future directions
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias modification - Efficacy evidence base and other research
1
Socially Anxious Primary Care Patients'
Attitudes Toward Cognitive Bias
Modification (CBM): A Qualitative Study
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias modification - Attentional retraining|Attention Training
1
The attentional bias is one
of several different cognitive
biases
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias modification - Attentional retraining|Attention Training
Attentional retraining as cognitive bias
modification is predicated on the observed
attentional bias evident in
psychopathology
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias modification - Criticisms and limitations
1
Another concern is that participants with
cognitive vulnerability are not able to
maintain their new learning even within a
CBM course, with their negative cognitive
bias beginning to re-emerge over
time.http://www3.nd.edu/~ghaeffel/Resour
ces/Haeffeletal2012.pdf
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation
1
'Cognitive bias mitigation' is the prevention
and reduction of the negative effects of
cognitive biases – unconscious, automatic
influences on human judgment and
decision making that reliably produce
reasoning errors.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation
There is no coherent, comprehensive
theory or practice of cognitive bias
mitigation. This article describes tools,
methods, proposals and other initiatives, in
academic and professional disciplines
concerned with the efficacy of human
reasoning, associated with the concept of
cognitive bias mitigation; most address
mitigation tacitly rather than explicitly.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Context
has established that a defining
characteristic of cognitive biases is that
they manifest automatically and
unconsciously over a wide range of human
reasoning, so even those aware of the
existence of the phenomenon are unable
to detect, let alone mitigate, their
manifestation via awareness only.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
There are few studies explicitly linking
cognitive biases to real-world incidents
with highly negative outcomes. Examples:
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
This was a case of highly trained,
experienced people breaking their own
rules, apparently under the influence of the
Overconfidence effect|Overconfidence
Effect, the sunk cost fallacy, the availability
heuristic, and perhaps other cognitive
biases
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
German researchers examined the role
that certain cognitive biases may have had
in the global financial crisis beginning in
2007
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
There are numerous investigations of
incidents determining that human error
was central to highly negative potential or
actual real-world outcomes, in which
manifestation of cognitive biases is a
plausible component. Examples:
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
A host of Cognitive Biases can be
imagined in this situation: confirmation
bias, hindsight bias, overconfidence effect,
availability bias, and even the meta-bias
bias blind spot.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
1
The power of confirmation bias alone
would be sufficient to explain why this
happened, but other cognitive biases
probably manifested as well.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
Cognitive Bias in Software
Engineering.Communications of the ACM 38(6),
June 1995: 57–63.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
* Other disaster-level examples of
negative outcomes resulting from human
error, possibly including multiple Cognitive
bias|Cognitive Biases: the Three Mile
Island nuclear meltdown, the loss of the
Space Shuttle Challenger, the Chernobyl
nuclear reactor fire, the downing of an Iran
Air Flight 655|Iran Air passenger aircraft,
the ineffective response to the Hurricane
Katrina weather event, and many more.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Real-world effects of cognitive bias
1
Each of the Cognitive bias|approximately
100 cognitive biases known to date can
also produce negative outcomes in our
everyday lives, though rarely as serious as
in the examples above. An illustrative
selection, recounted in multiple studies:
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive bias mitigation to date
1
In most cases this is based on explicit
reference to cognitive biases or their
mitigation, in others on unstated but selfevident applicability
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Decision theory
1
Practitioners tend to treat deviations from
what a rational agent would do as 'errors
of irrationality', with the implication that
Cognitive Bias Mitigation can only be
achieved by decision makers becoming
more like rational agents, though no
explicit measures for achieving this are
proffered.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Decision theory
1
Practitioners tend to treat deviations from
what a rational agent would do as
evidence of important, but as yet not
understood, decision-making variables,
and have as yet no explicit or implicit
contributions to make to a theory and
practice of Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Game theory
1
As with decision theory, practitioners tend
to view such deviations as 'irrational', and
rather than attempt to model such
behavior, by implication hold that Cognitive
Bias Mitigation can only be achieved by
decision makers becoming more like
rational agents.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Behavioral economics
No mention is made in Prospect
theory|formal prospect theory of Cognitive
Bias Mitigation, and there is no evidence
of peer-reviewed work on Cognitive Bias
Mitigation in other areas of this discipline.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Behavioral economics
1
These contributions assert that Cognitive
Bias Mitigation is necessary and offer
general suggestions for how to achieve it,
though the guidance is limited to only a
few Cognitive Biases and is not selfevidently generalizable to others.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Neuroeconomics
These results must be considered
speculative and preliminary, but are
nonetheless suggestive of the possibility of
real-time identification of brain states
associated with Cognitive biases|Cognitive
Bias manifestation, and the possibility of
purposeful interventions at the neuronal
level to achieve Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
1
Nonetheless, this approach has merit as
part of a Cognitive Bias Mitigation protocol
when the process is applied with a
maximum of diligence, in situations where
good data is available and all stakeholders
can be expected to cooperate.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
1
One contribution to a theory and practice
of cognitive bias mitigation from this
approach is that it addresses mitigation
without explicitly targeting individual
cognitive biases and focuses on the
reasoning mechanism itself to avoid
cognitive biases manifestation.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
of firefighter captains, military platoon
leaders and others making correct, snap
judgments under extreme duress suggest
that these responses are likely not
generalizable and may contribute to a
theory and practice of cognitive bias
mitigation only the general idea of domainspecific intensive training.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
1
This finding, if generalizable to other tasks
and disciplines, would discount the
potential of expert-level training as a
cognitive bias mitigation approach, and
could contribute a narrow but important
idea to a theory and practice of cognitive
bias mitigation.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Cognitive psychology
1
Laboratory experiments in which cognitive bias
mitigation is an explicit goal are rare
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Evolutionary psychology
1
The Evolution of Cognitive Bias
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Evolutionary psychology
It is too early to tell whether this idea
applies more generally to other Cognitive
bias|Cognitive Biases, but the point of
view supporting the theory may be useful
in the construction of a theory and practice
of Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Evolutionary psychology
The System 1/2 view of the human
reasoning mechanism appears to have
empirical plausibility (see
Help:Section#Section
linking|Neuroscience, next) and thus may
contribute to a theory and practice of
Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Neuroscience
1
While this notion must remain speculative
until further work is done, it appears to be
a productive basis for conceiving options
for constructing a theory and practice of
Cognitive Bias Mitigation.Damasio, A
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Anthropology
1
If this is true, then one possible means to
achieve at least some Cognitive Bias
Mitigation is to mimic, as much as
possible, Paleolithic/Holocene social,
political and economic scenarios when
one is performing a reasoning task that
could attract negative cognitive bias
effects.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Human reliability engineering
1
While this approach can produce effective
responses to critical situations under
stress, the protocols involved must be
viewed as having limited generalizability
beyond the domain for which they were
developed, with the implication that
solutions in this discipline may provide
only generic frameworks to a theory and
practice of Cognitive Bias Mitigation.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Machine learning
1
One technique particularly applicable to
Cognitive Bias Mitigation is neural
network|neural network learning and
choice selection, an approach inspired by
the imagined structure and function of
actual neural networks in the human brain
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Machine learning
1
In principle, such models are capable of
modeling decision making that takes
account of human needs and motivations
within social contexts, and suggest their
consideration in a theory and practice of
Cognitive Bias Mitigation
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Software engineering
This discipline, though not focused on
improving human reasoning outcomes as
an end goal, is one in which the need for
such improvement has been explicitly
recognized, though the term Cognitive
Bias Mitigation is not universally used.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Software engineering
This study refers to a broad research
program with the goal of moving toward a
theory and practice of Cognitive Bias
Mitigation.
1
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Other
1
A commercial initiative offers what it refers
to as a 'Cognitive Bias Modification'
service (see link below). While suggestive,
it is mentioned here only for
completeness, as there is no evidence that
this service is backed by peer-reviewed
research results.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
Cognitive bias mitigation - Other
1
Other initiatives aimed directly at a theory
and practice of Cognitive Bias Mitigation
may exist within other disciplines under
different labels than employed here.
https://store.theartofservice.com/the-cognitive-bias-toolkit.html
For More Information, Visit:
• https://store.theartofservice.co
m/the-cognitive-biastoolkit.html
The Art of Service
https://store.theartofservice.com