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Biological Status Review for the
Gray Wolf in Oregon and
Evaluation of Delisting Criteria
April 24, 2015
Russ Morgan
Oregon Dept. of Fish & Wildlife
Purpose of This Briefing
To evaluate the biological status of wolves
in Oregon and determine if significant
information exists to justify rulemaking to
delist the wolf under the Oregon ESA
(OESA)
ODFW, 4/2015
Overview
History, Oregon ESA, Wolf Plan
 Biological Status of Wolves
 Evaluation of OESA Delisting Criteria

ODFW, 4/2015
History
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Wolves were intentionally eradicated in Oregon
Wolves mostly gone from Oregon by 1930’s
Last Oregon wolf bounty paid in 1946
ODFW, 4/2015
Soldiers Soda Butte Creek-Wolf Pelt YNP 1905 Public Domain
Wolf Recovery
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Reintroductions in neighboring states
Experts predicted wolves would reestablish in
Oregon
B45
ODFW, 4/2015
Wolf Plan
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Adopted in 2005, updated in 2010
Three-phased population approach to address
both conservation and management needs
Phase II prompts consideration of delisting
from Oregon ESA
ODFW, 4/2015
Commission Principles
for Wolf Plan Development in 2005
 Write management plan based on
“conservation” as required by State law
 No active re-introduction of wolves
 Provide relief for livestock producers from
expected wolf depredations
 Address impacts to deer and elk populations
 Flexibility in managing wolves while providing
needed protections
ODFW, 4/2015
ODFW, 4/2015
Management Flexibility?
Wolf Plan (Page 27)
“After delisting and removal of ESA
protections, if western Oregon has not met
the conservation population objective, the
Commission will continue to manage wolves
in that area under a management regime that
replicates Oregon ESA protections for
individual wolves”
ODFW, 4/2015
Population
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Wolves established in NE Oregon in 2008, and annual
counts began in 2009.
Population increasing at a growth rate of 1.41 (2009-2014)
77 wolves in 2014 in 15 known packs or groups
Minimum-observed count method
Oregon Wolf Population
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2009
2010
2011
ODFW, 4/2015
2012
2013
2014
ODFW, 4/2015
Reproduction and Survival

8 successful breeding pairs in 2014
7 in east zone (all in NE Oregon)
 1 in west zone (southern Cascades)
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Estimated pup survival rate of .61
Within range of other reported pup survival values.
 Oregon uses minimum-observed pup counts, likely
underestimates pup survival.
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ODFW, 4/2015
Dispersal
16 collared-wolf dispersals
Half left the state (emigrated)
Mean dispersal distance (n=10) was 90 Mi
ODFW, 4/2015
ODFW, 4/2015
Habitat
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Wolves are habitat generalists and use many land
cover types if prey is available
Wolves in Oregon use mostly forested area
Seasonal habitat shifts to open areas usually
reflect prey distribution shifts
Wolves use both private and public land, but to
date most data locations and den sites have been
on National Forest lands
ODFW, 4/2015
Healthy Wolves?
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Few diseases documented in Oregon wolves.
Parvovirus documented in 2013
Mange not detected in Oregon
Lice detected on one wolf to date
ODFW, 4/2015
Human-caused Mortality Factors
Most documented Oregon wolf deaths have been
human-caused (2000-Present)
Illegal take (5)
 ODFW control action (4)
 Vehicle collision (1)
 Capture-related (1)
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ODFW, 4/2015
Evaluation of OESA Delisting Criteria
Criterion 1: Geography
(Page 10)
The species is not now (and is not likely in
the foreseeable future to be) in danger of
extinction in any significant portion of its
range in Oregon
ODFW, 4/2015
What We Considered
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Historical Range – Most of Oregon
Contracted Range – Areas no longer suitable
Potential Range – Where wolves could live
(habitat, prey, human factors)
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Currently Occupied Range – Where wolves are
now
Extinction Risk
ODFW, 4/2015
Potential
Wolf
ODFW,
4/2015Range
ODFW, 4/2015
ODFW, 4/2015
Conclusion for Criteria 1
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Current areas of known wolf activity include
about 12% of the state’s potential wolf range
Wolves are represented over a large geographic
area of Oregon
Nothing is preventing wolves from occupying
additional portions of the West Zone
Observed dispersal and movement patterns
indicate connectivity
Wolves not likely to become extinct
ODFW, 4/2015
Criterion 2: Population Viability
(Page 15)
The species’ natural reproductive potential is not
in danger of failure due to limited population
numbers, disease, predation, or other natural or
human-related factors affecting its continued
existence.
ODFW, 4/2015
Population Model
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Individual based model using conservative inputs
such as survival, emigration, territory establishment,
immigration, human-caused mortality, and
reproduction
Assessed two measures of population viability –
conservation-failure, and biological extinction
Validated model by comparing to count data.
Results indicates our model is appropriately
cautious
ODFW, 4/2015
Model Results
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Wolf population projected to increase at a
minimum rate of 7% annually
Overall probability of extinction is low
Baseline Model: 6% probability of conservationfailure
 1% probability of biological extinction
 No simulations fell below conservation level when
using Oregon observed data
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ODFW, 4/2015
Important Model Factors
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Starting population size is important in our
model and risk of failure is highest in early years
Human caused mortality also important.
Probability of failure was low when humancaused mortality rates (as implemented in our
model) are kept below .10
ODFW, 4/2015
Criterion 2: Other Factors Considered
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Disease
Predation
Genetic viability
Other natural or human factors
Habitat connectivity
ODFW, 4/2015
ODFW, 4/2015
Conclusion for Criterion 2
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Population is low but increasing in abundance and
distribution.
Analysis predicts a growing wolf population
Low probability for population failure
Rates of disease, predation, and human-caused
mortality has been relatively low
Wolves are part of a larger population and no
barriers to connectivity were identified.
ODFW, 4/2015
Criterion 3: Deterioration of Range or
Habitat?
(Page 19)
Most populations are not undergoing
imminent or active deterioration of range
or primary habitat
ODFW, 4/2015
Criterion 3: Range Deterioration?
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Wolves were extirpated because of eradication
effort, not because of range or habitat loss
Wolves are now expanding their range in Oregon
Occur in 4,858 Sq Mi
 Two geographic regions
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ODFW, 4/2015
Criterion 3: Habitat Deterioration?
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Human population increase not likely to affect
Wolves prefer forest cover, mountainous terrain
 Future human growth is projected to occur in areas
less suitable for wolves
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Public land ownership – land use and forest
protection regulations
Prey populations are highly regulated under
other state plans
ODFW, 4/2015
Criterion 4: Overutilization
(Page 20)
Over-utilization of the species or its habitat
for commercial, recreational, scientific, or
educational purposes is not occurring or
likely to occur
ODFW, 4/2015
Criterion 4: Overutilization
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Protective framework (Wolf Plan) does not
change as a result of any delisting decision
Capture/collaring will continue
 Phase I-III
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Delisting does not allow any additional
commercial, recreational, scientific activities.
Regulated forest management in Oregon
ODFW, 4/2015
Criterion 5: Adequate Protection Programs
(Page 22)
Existing state or federal programs or
regulations are adequate to protect the
species and its habitat.
ODFW, 4/2015
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Wolf Plan
Phase II in East Zone (Phase III as early as 2017)
 Phase I in West Zone
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Federal ESA
ODFW, 4/2015
Effects of Delisting
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Near term – little change
Wolf Plan phases based on zone population
 Federal ESA
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Most important when wolf population reaches
Phase III
ODFW, 4/2015
Summary Conclusions
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Oregon wolves are healthy and the wolf population is
increasing and is projected to continue to increase
The likelihood of population failure is very low
Wolf range is expanding and is projected to continue
to expand – wolves now occur in both east and west
zones
There are no known conditions which prevent
connectivity between existing populations and
currently unused habitats
The Wolf Plan will continue to provide conservation
and protections for wolves in Oregon
ODFW, 4/2015
Questions?
ODFW, 4/2015