Download WAI 2015 Foreign Policy Scenario: The Future of U.S.

45th WORLD AFFAIRS INSTITUTE FOR STUDENT LEADERS
A Community Service Project of Rotary International and World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh
Foreign Policy Scenario:
THE FUTURE OF U.S. – CUBAN RELATIONS
Background
The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 sent Cuba into an economic tailspin. Having once relied on the Soviet
Union—a fellow Communist country—for oil, economic, and military support, Cuba was at a loss on how
to fill the void left in the absence of these critical resources. During the mid-1990s, in what has been called
“the Special Period,” Cuba’s economy shrank by 35 percent, and oil imports dropped by 90 percent. Cuba
eventually sought support from Venezuela, a country with similar economic and political values. In October
2000, Presidents Hugo Chavez (Venezuela) and Fidel Castro (Cuba)—already close allies—signed the
Convenio Integral de Cooperacion. Under this trade agreement, Venezuela, a country rich in oil, agreed to
send 53,000 barrels of oil per-day to Cuba at a highly subsidized rate. In exchange, Cuba would send
technical support in the fields of education, health care, sports, science, and technology. Over the past 15
years, Venezuela proceeded to nearly double its distribution of oil to Cuba. Cuba relies heavily on trade
with Venezuela (more than any other nation). Venezuela provides Cuba with more than half of its daily oil
consumption, as well as billions of dollars in aid annually. In addition, tens of thousands of Cuban doctors,
security personnel, and other service-related professionals work in Venezuela through government
exchange programs.
Recently, the legitimacy and sustainability of this trade relationship have come into question. This is despite
continued support from Venezuela’s newest leader, President Nicolas Maduro—a handpicked successor to
the late Hugo Chavez—that calmed anxieties in Cuba, where rumors had spread regarding post-Chavez
relations with Venezuela. Currently, Venezuela is in the midst of a deep economic recession. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that Venezuela will see its economy shrink more than any other
country in the world, in part due to a drop in oil prices. As a result, public discontent is high within the
country as the people blame the Maduro Administration for their economic woes, argue too much reliance
is placed on the Cuba trade partnership, and even seek an end to Maduro’s presidency.
In Cuba, a warming of diplomatic relations with the United States has resulted in new economic
opportunities. One such example is a growth in Cuba’s tourism industry. As a result, many Cubans are drawn
to this more lucrative industry as it provides greater economic freedom and a higher income. American
tourists funnel American dollars, worth much more than the Cuban peso, into the Cuban economy. There
is concern that more and more doctors, as well as teachers, and other professionals, (including those once
sent to Venezuela for work), will seek new opportunities in the tourism sector and elsewhere in an effort
to make a higher living wage.
The Crisis - 2017
The Cuban-Venezuelan relationship is at a crossroads. A coup in December 2016 brought to power new
leadership in Venezuela. Focused on responding to the current economic crisis, the new administration has
reexamined all existing trade policies in an effort to strengthen Venezuela’s economy. The strong ties that
connected Venezuela and Cuba proved a weakness for Venezuela as the oil-rich country was providing such
a lucrative resource (oil) at a highly subsided rate. Further, through the rapid growth of Cuba’s tourism
industry in 2016, as well as the lifting of some travel restrictions to and from the country, Cuba is no longer
able to sustain the level of doctors and healthcare professionals Venezuela needs to keep the current trade
deal intact. Many of these workers have sought employment in Cuba’s tourism industry, or left for better
employment opportunities in other countries. As a result of these lapses in the trade deal, the Venezuelan
government has decided to cut its distribution of oil to Cuba by more than half, while also increasing the
price on the oil it continues to trade with Cuba. This action sends Cuba’s economy into crisis mode.
Seeing the events unfolding in the Caribbean, the U.S. government is concerned over the threat of a refugee
crisis as many believe even more Cubans will flee the country for a better life in America. Therefore, officials
within the United States government have proposed a special provision under the trade embargo, which
has been enforced since 1960. This provision would allow for the distribution of oil from the U.S. to Cuba;
however, it has been met with protest in the U.S. Many, especially those in the Cuban-exile community,
argue the full trade embargo should remain in place as punishment for Cuba’s human rights violations.
Though not fully enacted, the proposed provision is up for a vote and will need to be agreed to by both the
House of Representatives and the Senate to move forward. Many political and domestic groups are
weighing in on this highly contested issue in the hopes of swaying the decision one way or the other.
Your Task
As the United States Congress prepares for this important vote, various groups and individuals in
government, media, and politics have weighed in on the situation. Your job, as experts on U.S.-Cuban
relations in these key groups, is to help inform Congress on the issue and to sway members of Congress to
agree and support your particular stance regarding the future of U.S.-Cuban relations.
Key Questions to Consider:
 What are the special interests of your community, organization, or political entity in this situation?
 What are the United States’ foreign policy options with regards to Cuba? Consider the benefits and
consequences of each option.
 How might this affect foreign policy in the region and beyond?
 What are the challenges and opportunities for the United States if Congress moves forward or pulls
back with a provision to the trade embargo allowing for the trade of oil with Cuba?
 In what ways can your community, organization, or political entity effectively convince members
of Congress to vote in line with your stance on this issue? Consider the position and authority of
your group.
Key Players
Amnesty International
Department of Treasury
The Center for Democracy in the Americas
The Miami Herald
Cuban-American National Foundation
Shell Global
Department of Commerce
Department of Defense
Department of Homeland Security
Department of State
United States Agency for International
Development (USAID)
United States Cuba Democracy Political Action
Committee (PAC)
The White House