Download Larry Hartig Commissioner Alaska Department of Environmental

Larry Hartig
Commissioner
Alaska Department of
Environmental Conservation
February 26, 2008
“Arctic average temperature has risen
at almost twice the rate as the rest of
the world in the past few decades.
Widespread melting of glaciers and sea
ice and rising permafrost temperatures
present additional evidence of strong
arctic warming. These changes in the
Arctic provide an early indication of the
environmental and societal significance
of global warming.”
[Executive Summary, “Impacts of a Warming Arctic,” Arctic Climate Impact Assessment,
Cambridge University Press 2004]
Impacts we are already seeing from
a warming environment include:
• Increased damage to coastal communities from
storms and sea surges, made more vulnerable as a
result of less and thinner sea ice, which use to
provide natural protection from fall storms;
• Failing support for buildings, roads, runways and
other infrastructure due to melting permafrost;
• Increases in the number and severity of forest fires
relating to insect stress and drier conditions;
• Changes in the habitats and the distribution of
marine and terrestrial species;
• Increased risks of fuel spills and other accidents
from increased shipping and other activity in the
Arctic and Aleutians resulting from less sea ice and
better access; and
• Increased threats from invasive species.
Top – 1979
Arctic Sea Ice
Extent
Bottom – 2005
Arctic Sea Ice
Extent
This image compares the average sea ice extent for September 2007 to September
2005; the magenta line indicates the long-term median from 1979 to 2000. September
2007 sea ice extent was 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles),
compared to 5.57 million square kilometers (2.14 million square miles) in September
2005. This image is from the NSIDC Sea Ice Index.
[National Snow and Ice Data Center]
Kivalina
Kivalina
Kivalina Measurements
As of 10/20/06
Connex
50 feet
School
150 feet
Kivalina
Kivalina – Ice Bound
Shishmaref, where the coastline has eroded 100-300 feet in the past 30 years.
Shishmaref
Shishmaref
Shishmaref house after storm.
Shishmaref – House relocation
Newtok
Newtok
Bluff undercutting
Bluff Undercutting
Bluff Erosion 3
Waste Spread by Flooding
Storm Surge Board Walk Damage
Port Heiden
Port Heiden
Melting permafrost causes roads to heave, increasing maintenance costs.
A home in Fairbanks, Alaska seriously damaged by melting permafrost.
Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure at Risk from Climate Change
Prepared by
Peter Larsen and Scott Goldsmith, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), UAA
Orson Smith, Civil Engineering Department, UAA
Meghan Wilson, ISER, UAA
Ken Strzepek, University of Colorado at Boulder
Paul Chinowsky, University of Colorado at Boulder
Ben Saylor, ISER, UAA
Sponsored by
University of Alaska Foundation
National Commission on Energy Policy, Washington D.C.
Alaska Conservation Foundation, Anchorage, Alaska
Rural Alaska Community Action Program, Anchorage, Alaska
June 2007
Institute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorage
3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, Alaska 99508
www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu
Even without climate change, the costs of maintaining and replacing federal, state, and local
infrastructure in Alaska are considerable—an estimated $32 billion between now and 2030 and $56 billion
between now and 2080.
Damage from climate change could add $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion to infrastructure costs between now and
2030 and $5.6 billion to $7.6 billion between now and 2080, depending on the level of climate change and
assuming that government agencies adapt infrastructure to changing conditions.
Not all areas of Alaska or types of infrastructure will be equally affected by climate change. The damage
will be concentrated in areas where permafrost thaws, flooding increases, and coastal erosion gets worse.
Extra infrastructure costs in the next 25 years will mostly be for maintaining or replacing roads, airport
runways, and water and sewer systems.
Reddish-brown needles indicate spruce beetle killed forest, southcentral Alaska.
Beetle killed spruce trees readily ignite.
Interior Alaska
June 29 2004
Photo by MODIS Fire Imagery, University of Alaska Fairbankshttp://ion.gina.alaska.edu/fire/FIRE_IMAGERY_FULL_COLOR/
South Fairbanks
June 28, 2004. Air quality
particulate level at
approximately 900 ug/m3
Photos by Dr. James Conner, FNSB
South Fairbanks
July 6, 2004. Air quality
particulate level at
approximately 10 ug/m3
Arctic Ocean Shipping Routes
The opening of Arctic poses
additional risks, including:
• Increased risks of accidents resulting
in spills of fuel and other hazardous
materials;
• Increased need for other emergency
response capability to avoid risks to
life and ships;
• Increased need to patrol U.S. border to
protect national interests, including
fisheries.
Neither the federal or state government is in
a very good position to meet these needs:
• There are a lack of deep water ports and “harbors of
refuge” along the western and northern coasts of
Alaska;
• There is little emergency response capability in the
area – no ocean tugs or ice breakers stationed in the
Arctic or any permanent Coast Guard station;
• Foreign ships are sailing under the international
rules of “innocent passage,” and, as such, do not
have either federal or state oil-spill contingency
plans or a certificate of financial responsibility to pay
for any mess they may create;
• Lack of monitoring of ships passing through the
Arctic; and
• Relatively less knowledge and capability to respond
to spills in broken ice conditions.
What is being done in Alaska?
• Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet
http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/
• Immediate Action Workgroup
• Newtok Planning Group
http://www.dced.state.ak.us/dca/planning/Newtok_Planning_Group_
Webpage.htm
• Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission
http://www.housemajority.org/coms/index.php?c=38
Newtok Planning Group
http://www.commerce.state.ak.us/dca/planning/Newtok_Planning_Group_Webpage.htm
Newtok, Winter 1967
There are challenges in going
forward, including:
•
•
•
•
The costs of relocation or protection structures are very high –
in the most at-risk villages of Kivalina, Newtok and Shishmaref,
a technical analysis study in 2006 found each has 10 -15 years
before erosion impacts critical infrastructure, and the cost to
move each village would range from $80 million to $200 million;
There are other communities, besides the five mentioned, that
are at risk from coastal erosion, flooding and wild land fires. A
2004 U.S. General Accountability Office study identified 184 out
of 213 Native Alaskan villages that experience some level of
flooding or erosion;
Villages want to maintain their cultural identity and traditional
way of life wherever they move, which largely precludes joining
existing communities, particularly regional hubs and larger
cities;
Villages don’t have the funds or other means to explore
alternatives on their own, or to compete for limited federal and
state funds;
There are challenges in going
forward, including:
•
•
•
•
•
•
By and large, federal emergency funding prioritizes areas of
greater population and addressing the aftermath of disasters;
There is a lack of funds for planning, relocation and building
structures to prevent disasters;
Federal, and to a lesser degree State agencies, have difficulty
agreeing on priorities and melding funding streams to address
coastal erosion and flooding risks in a coordinated, efficient
way. There is no lead federal agency.
Compliance with NEPA requirements can slow response to
immediate risks.
Long-term sustainability of rural Alaska communities most be
considered in the analysis of alternatives – will the community
be able to afford to maintain and replace the public
infrastructure over the long-term?
The uncertainty of predictions in sea rise, sea ice, erosion,
permafrost melting, flooding and forest fires.
Alaska The Last Frontier
The End
http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/