Download Air Pollution, Climate Change and Health

Air Pollution, Climate Change and Health
Dr Clare Heaviside
Air Pollution and Climate Change Group
Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards
National Air Quality Strategy
Regulated Pollutants
 Particles (PM10 and PM2.5)
 Nitrogen dioxide
 Ozone
 Sulphur dioxide
 PAH (B[a]P)
 Benzene
 1,3-Butadiene
 Carbon monoxide
 Lead
Recent trends for the UK
Defra Air Quality Statistics in the UK, 1987 to 2013
Pollutant Sources
NO2 - mainly from road traffic, also electricity generation and
industry (higher in cities)
PM10 and PM2.5 - have many sources, particularly from road traffic
and industry. Primary sources from combustion, or secondary
sources from chemical reactions. Natural sources are sea spray
or dust.
O3 - a secondary pollutant, no single source, so prediction and
regulation is difficult. Heavily influenced by meteorology (higher in
rural and suburban areas)
Health Effects of Air Pollution
• Acute (e.g. respiratory symptoms) or chronic (e.g. lung cancer) effects
• Vulnerable populations: elderly, very young, people with pre-existing
disease (e.g. cardiovascular or asthma)
Mortality
Hospital
Admissions
Emergency Room Visits
General Physician Visits
Medication Use
Symptoms
Impaired Pulmonary Function
Sub-clinical Effects
Population Affected
Committee on the
Medical Effects of Air
Pollutants
COMEAP estimated the mortality
burden of human-made particulate
pollution in UK in 2008 as:
• an effect equivalent to
approximately 29,000 deaths
• a loss of 340,000 years of life
• average loss of 6 months of life
expectancy from birth
(2010)
http://comeap.org.uk/
Local Mortality
associated with PM2.5
• Attributable percentage:
UK: 5.3 %
England: 5.6 %
• Attributable deaths:
UK: 29,000
England: 25,000
• Years of life lost:
UK: 307,000 England: 265,000
Guidance on estimating mortality
attributable PM2.5 at Local Authority
level
(Gowers et al. 2014)
Annual mean PM2.5 μg/m3 (2010)
Percentage of mortality attributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5
Fraction of mortality attributable to
particulate air pollution
2012
Climate Change and Health
Ozone is highly influenced by the weather
Ground level ozone formation can be controlled by:
temperature, humidity, winds, sunlight and land surface type
Peaks in ozone often coincide with heatwaves, due to increased sunlight
and light winds.
Ozone levels are sensitive to climate
change as well as man-made emissions.
Climate projections for the UK:
• Increased annual mean temperature of
2-5oC in the UK by 2080 (medium
emissions)
of up to
NASA
• Increased frequency of heatwaves
max temp
• Temperatures
reached 38.5oC in
Kent in Aug 2003
• >2000 excess deaths
in the UK
• Estimates that
between 21 and 38%
of the excess deaths
were due to the
elevated ozone and
particulate levels
Stedman (2004)
2003 mortality
min temp
Baseline mortality
Daily mortality, London, aged >75yrs
- ozone
- PM10
Johnson et al (2004)
Ground level ozone
Change in ozone for +5oC
temperature change
(2003 emissions)
Change in ozone for 2030
for medium emissions
scenario (cf 2003)
Effect of modelled
5oC temperature
increase is smaller
than impact of
emissions
changes, although
both indicate
increased ozone
concentrations
Heal et al. (2013)
13
ppb
Short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs)
Limiting CO2 is necessary to stabilise global temperatures in the long
term.
However, efforts to address climate change should also focus on
pollutants which remain in the atmosphere for much shorter periods
SLCPs affect health as well as climate change so reduction has a double
benefit
Short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs)
Climate and Clean Air Coalition
SLCPs: Black carbon
Black carbon is a constituent of PM, emitted from
gas and diesel engines and fossil fuel burning
Climate effects:
• Short lived, but with a large effect on climate, changes in rain and
cloud patterns
• Deposits in the arctic decrease the Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight,
absorb heat, and accelerate melting
Health effects:
Respiratory, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.
Reductions in BC can be expected to bring climate and
health benefits within the short term (decades).
Air Pollution and Climate
Change
Need to be treated together
Win-win: active travel, urban greening
Lose-win: wood burning, diesel cars?
Maximise public health co-benefits
e.g. local air quality, physical activity
and climate change mitigation
Avoid potential trade-offs
e.g. energy efficiency and indoor air
quality in homes
(IGBP and IGAC 2012)
Public Health England’s Air Pollution
Objective
• Develop a programme in support of national and local
government to reduce 25,000 deaths each year in England
attributable to air pollution
• The new public health arrangements for England provide an
opportunity to join up national-level research and advice on
air pollution & climate change with local-level influencing and
action
Conclusions
There are many interactions between air pollution and climate change
Climate change may exacerbate air pollution such as ground level
ozone in future
The links between climate and air pollutants means that reducing
GHGs can also help reduce health impacts:
• There could be considerable health benefits for reducing levels of
SLCPs such as black carbon
• Policies such as promoting active travel and urban greening can
have environmental and health benefits
• However, we should be careful to anticipate potential unintended
harmful effects of ‘green’ policies, e.g. transport or housing.
Acknowledgements
PHE Air Pollution and Climate Change Group
University of Edinburgh
COMEAP (and Ozone working group)