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Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Module 1 URBANIZATION AND VULNERABILITY Goal To provide an understanding of how vulnerability to natural disasters can intensify during the process of urbanization Keywords/phrases Learning outcomes After completing this session, you will be able to • Explain the process of urbanization • Recognize the need for urban planning • Relate to national and global initiatives to create safer urban communities Learning objectives As you work through this session you will learn to 9 Discriminate between city and urban area 9 Discover the subjective nature of the definition for the term ‘urban’ 9 Describe the undesirable effects of uncontrolled increase in urban population 9 List the positive aspects and negative spill-over of urbanization 9 Discuss urban poverty and how it can create unsafe communities 9 Give examples of global initiatives to create safer urban communities Urbanization Urban migration poverty sprawl land use population City Megacity Infrastructure facilities Critical facilities Utilities Environmental pollution smog acid rain ozone depletion green house effect IDNDR ISDR Habitat Agenda ∗ 1. What is an Urban Area? Is the term “urban area” synonymous for “city”? Probably the two are not the same. All cities are urban areas but not all urban areas are cities. “Urban” is a statistical concept defined by a country’s government. A city, on the other hand is more than just large numbers of people living in close proximity to one another: Cities are centers of economic production, religion, learning and culture (1). It is a complex political, economic and social entity. Cities around the world symbolize their nation’s identity and political strength. Each country sets its own definition of “urban”. / ∗ This course material is being made available by Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Bangkok under Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) project, to the participating universities and institutions for educational purpose only. Reproduction of materials for educational purpose is encouraged as long as ADPC is acknowledged. 1 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Module 1 In many countries, the definition is based on a threshold number of inhabitants; when the population of a region exceeds that threshold, the region is considered urban. This threshold varies from a few hundred as in Peru or Uganda to more than 10,000 as in Italy and Senegal. Other governments base their definition on a combination of criteria, such as population density, political function, or predominant activity of the region. These definitional differences can askew international comparison. If the Indian government adopted Peru’s definition of urban, India would suddenly become one of Asia’s more urbanized nations (2). Even within countries, the definition of urban may vary with time. In 1990, the World Bank reported that China’s urbanization level jumped from 18% to 50% between 1965 and 1988. The government adopting a new definition of ‘urban’ in 1986, which included many agrarian communities, largely explains it. China has again changed the definition in 1990 according to which China’s population was considered 26.21% urban (3). Defining urban is further complicated by the dynamic nature of cities. In both developed and developing countries, urban activity tends to move beyond established urban boundaries. For instance, at night, Tokyo’s central city population may actually be lower, as commuters leave the downtown area for their suburban homes (4). The following table provides further illumination of this practice. Minimum Urban Population Definitions Country Sweden Denmark South Africa Australia Canada Czechoslovakia Israel France Cuba United States Mexico Belgium Iran Nigeria Spain Turkey Japan Population 200 200 500 1000 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2500 2500 5000 5000 5000 10,000 10,000 30,000 Source: United Nations: Population Studies, 44, (1969) 81-84 2 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Module 1 Urbanization has two general perspectives in the geographical and environmental literature: It often refers to the movement and concentration of humans from rural areas and their villages to towns and cities. It can also be viewed as the transformation of an area on the surface of the earth to an urban pattern of land-use. People living in rural areas depend on agriculture and also harvest other natural resources for their survival. People in rural areas mostly engage in community activities and organize themselves into villages. A village is a small number of rural households linked together because of culture, customs, family ties, and an association with farming land or harvesting resources. In urban areas the majority of the people engage in providing services or trade. Urbanites can have jobs in education, commerce, industry, science and the arts. Towns are defined as human settlements that are larger than a village but smaller than a city. Towns generally have centralized areas within them where commerce and business are the primary activities of the residing citizens. A city can be described as a concentration of people with a distinctive way of life in terms of employment patterns and lifestyle. A high degree of specialized land uses and a wide variety of social, economic, and political institutions that coordinate the use of the facilities and resources in the city make them very complex machines. Cities with populations greater than 10 million are called megacities. Urbanization in more developed countries (MDCs) is now beginning to level off. Most MDC urban areas underwent dramatic urban growth during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Today, many urban areas in less developed countries (LDCs) are experiencing similar expansion. 3 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Module 1 UN: World Population Already Over 6 Billion, Growing by 77 Million Annually World population, which had reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000, is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.3 per cent, or 77 million people per year, according to the latest United Nations statistics. World Population Prospects: the 2000 Revision, prepared by the UN Population Division, shows that six countries account for half of this annual growth: India China Pakistan Nigeria Bangladesh Indonesia 21 % 12 % 5% 4% 4% 3% By 2050, world population could be as high as 10.9 billion, although the report also projects lower figures under possible scenarios. According to the report, the population of more developed regions, currently 1.2 billion, is anticipated to change little during the next 50 years because fertility levels are expected to remain below replacement level. In 39 countries, population levels are projected to diminish. Japan and Germany are each expected to shrink by 14 per cent, Italy and Hungary by 25 per cent, and the Russian Federation, Georgia and Ukraine by between 28 and 40 per cent. World population, which had reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000, is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.3 per cent, or 77 million people per year, according to the latest United Nations statistics. World Population Prospects: the 2000 Revision, prepared by the UN Population Division, shows that six countries account for half of this annual growth: India China Pakistan 21 % 21 % 5% Nigeria Bangladesh Indonesia 4% 4% 3% By 2050, world population could be as high as 10.9 billion, although the report also projects lower figures under possible scenarios. According to the report, the population of more developed regions, currently 1.2 billion, is anticipated to change little during the next 50 4 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Module 1 years because fertility levels are expected to remain below replacement level. In 39 countries, population levels are projected to diminish. Japan and Germany are each expected to shrink by 14 per cent, Italy and Hungary by 25 per cent, and the Russian Federation, Georgia and Ukraine by between 28 and 40 per cent. Assuming continuing declines in fertility, the population of the less developed regions is projected to rise steadily from 4.9 billion in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050. In the absence of such declines, the population of those areas would reach 11.9 billion. Particularly rapid growth is expected among the world's 48 poorest countries, where the population could nearly triple between 2000 and 2050. The report also predicts a worsening of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, projecting that during the next five years; the number of AIDS deaths among the 45 most affected countries will be an estimated 15.5 million. 2. The Urban Trend In 1960, only one city – Shanghai had a population of 10 million. In 2000, 450 cities worldwide, each shelter a population of more than I million. Of these 50 cities have a population greater than 3.5 million and 25 cities have populations greater than 8 million. By the year 2010, over 3.7 billion people will be classified as urban dwellers – more people than inhabited the earth just four decades earlier (5). Researchers predict that by 2025 over 60 % of the Earth's people will live in urban areas. Most of this growth will occur in developing countries. The Table below illustrates the urbanization pattern. It is worthwhile to compare changes in population level between cities of the more developed (MDCs) and developing countries. The population in cities of developed countries has leveled off while those in most developing countries show increasing population. This puts pressure on limited resources and infrastructure. 5 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Urbanization - Ten Top Regions for 1900, 1950, 1992 and 2015 projected (Population in millions of people) 1900 1950 1992 2015* London 6.6 New York 12.3 Tokyo 25.8 Tokyo New York 4.2 London 8.7 Sao Paulo 17.0 Bombay Paris 3.3 Tokyo 6.7 New York 16.2 Lagos Berlin 2.4 Paris 5.4 Mexico City 15.3 Dhaka Chicago 1.7 Shanghai 5.3 Shanghai 14.1 Sao Paulo Vienna 1.6 Buenos Aires 5.0 Bombay 13.3 Karachi Tokyo 1.5 Chicago 4.9 Los Angeles 11.9 Mexico City St. Petersburg 1.4 Moscow 4.8 Buenos Aires 11.8 New York Philadelphia 1.4 Calcutta 4.4 Beijing 11.4 Jakarta Manchester 1.3 Los Angeles 4.0 Rio de Janeiro 11.3 Calcutta Module 1 26.4 26.1 23.2 21.1 20.4 19.2 19.2 17.4 17.3 17.3 * United Nations – World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision The trend is urbanization. Cities can provide great improvements in living standards Cities have the potential to combine safe and healthy living conditions and culturally rich and enjoyable lifestyles with remarkably low levels of energy consumption, resource-use and waste (6). The positive role of cities Cities are centers of power and prestige – economic, political and social. They are crucial to economic productivity. Almost half of the gross domestic product (GDP) of many countries is generated in cities. The fact that cities concentrate production and population gives them some obvious advantages over rural settlements or dispersed populations. High densities mean much lower costs per household and per enterprise for The provision of piped, treated water supplies Increased energy efficiency for heating and cooling of clustered housing (more an issue in developed countries) The collection of household and human wastes Advanced telecommunications Increased access to Education, Jobs, Health Care and Social Services Collective community based recreational facilities It also makes much cheaper the provision of emergency services – for instance, fire fighting and the emergency response to acute illness or injury (7). Thus, the infra structure facilities such as housing, roads, railway; critical facilities such as education, health, emergency services, transport, communication and utilities such as power and water supply are better in the urban areas. The attraction of people to live within such areas to enjoy a better quality of life is understandable. 6 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) 3. Module 1 Governance What ensures the optimal enjoyment of these facilities and utilities by urban communities? The responsibility lies with the institutional structure available for ‘urban governance’. Mostly we recognize this mechanism in Municipal Councils under the leadership of a Mayor. What creates good governance? V The negative spill-over In the absence of ‘good governance’, cities can be unhealthy and dangerous places in which to live and work. Each household and enterprise can reduce their costs by passing their environmental problems of solid and liquid wastes and air pollution on to others. Some of the environmental problems due to human activity in cities may be enumerated as follows: The temperature of a city is often warmer than that of surrounding rural areas. There are a number of heat sources within a city that can contribute to increased temperatures. Combustion of fossil fuels for industry, transportation and heating supply extra heat to the atmosphere. Because of this, cities are often referred to as urban heat islands. Air pollution is a major problem associated with most urban areas. Sources of air pollution include industrial and vehicle emissions and energy production. Some problems are: Photochemical smog, Acid rain The ozone layer depletion Enhanced greenhouse effect Roads, parking lots and buildings do not absorb precipitation as soil under vegetation does. This increases surface runoff of rainwater. The water is expected to quickly drain from streets into storm sewers. These become clogged (as is the case in many developing countries) with polythene bags etc. due to inadequate maintenance and contribute to inefficient drainage. Often wetlands, which efficiently act to absorb excess water, are filled for the development of the floodplains for homes and industry. This reduces extent of land to absorb excess runoff. This increases both the number and magnitude of floods. There are many ways that urbanization contributes to the pollution of both surface and ground water. The dumping of wastes into waterways is common. Some sources of aquatic pollution include industry, sewage, runoff and sediment. Physically, sediments can build up in waterways causing floods. 7 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Module 1 In many areas of the world, industrial water pollution is declining due to government regulations on discharges. 4. Urban Poverty At least 600 million urban dwellers in the developing and less developed countries live in very poor conditions – many of them are squatters– with very inadequate provision for water, sanitation, drainage garbage collection and other basic services. Meanwhile in the absence of a planning framework, city expansion takes place haphazardly and often with urban sprawl over the best quality farmland. Hundreds of millions of low income households live in illegal or informal settlements that developed on land ill-suited for housing – for instance, on flood-plains or steep slopes with high risk of landslides and mudslides. They live here because these are the only land sites, which they can afford, or where their illegal occupation will not be challenged because the land site is too dangerous for any commercial use (7). With lower levels of literacy and education, the urban poor may also contribute a larger share to rapid growth of the populations (especially in large urban concentrations) in hazard prone areas (particularly coastal areas susceptible to both tropical cyclones and earthquakes). Some of the undesirable features and consequences of such settlements are as follows: Poor planning and construction in high-risk regions Poor enforcement of building codes Inadequate public awareness and education Limited financial and technical resources Environmental degradation 5. Urban Human Settlements and Natural Disasters About 50% of the world’s largest cities are situated along major earthquake belts or tropical cyclone tracks. The average number of disaster victims is 150 times greater in the developing world compared to the developed countries. The economic loss, as a percent of GNP is 20 times greater. The concern over the risk to megacities, particularly in the developing world, is their growing vulnerability caused by their hyper-concentrations of population, dependence on complex and aging infrastructure and unprepared local institutions. (8) Natural disasters impact on human settlements in a variety of ways. Disasters can cause many injuries and the tragic loss of human lives. Disasters disrupt economic activities and urban productivity, particularly for the more susceptible low-income groups that tend to concentrate on disaster prone areas for reasons outlined earlier. Disaster can cause widespread environmental damage such as the 8 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Module 1 loss of fertile agricultural land and the contamination of water resources. Finally, disasters can lead to the forced major resettlement of populations. Over the past two decades, disasters have caused an estimated 3 million deaths and affected 800 million people worldwide. Global economic losses have been estimated by the Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator to be in the range of US$ 30-50 billion. 6. Global Concern The management of human settlements is one area the AGENDA 21 addresses (9). The overall objective of this area is to improve the social, economic and environmental aspects of human settlements and the living and working environments of all people. The issues that relate to this concern are Adequate shelter Settlement Management Land-use planning Urban environmental infrastructure Energy and transportation Disaster prone areas The construction industry and Human resources. In recognition of the damage and suffering caused by disasters, the General Assembly of the United Nations proclaimed the 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). It has been followed up with the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). The Strategy will serve as a platform for disaster reduction. It is based on the IDNDR experience, and the Strategy "A Safer World in the 21st Century: Disaster and Risk Reduction". It reflects a cross-sect oral and interdisciplinary approach to disaster reduction. The Habitat Agenda of the UNHCS under Section IV C has made a series of recommendations to reduce disaster vulnerability of human settlements, which needs serious consideration (10). 9 Capacity Building in Asia using Information Technology Applications (CASITA) Module 1 References 1. World Resources 1966-97: Chapter 1, http://www.wri.org/wri/wr96-97/ud_b3.html 2. Harody Jorge. E., and Satterthwaite David (1986) “Urban Change in the Third World: Are Recent Trends a Useful Pointer to the Urban Future?’ Habitat International, Vol. 10, No. 3, p 34. 3. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, (1993) State of Urbanization in Asia and the Pacific, p 2-2. 4. Cybriwsky Roman (1993) “Tokyo”, Cities, Vol. 10, No. 1, February, p. 3. 5. United Nations Population Division (1994), World Urbanization Prospects: The 1994 Revision, U.N., New York, p 87. 6. Satterthwaite David (1994), ‘Sustainable Cities’, Resurgence, Issue 67, November/December, pp20-23. 7. UNCHS (Habitat), (1996), An Urbanizing World: Global Report on Human Settlements, Oxford University Press, Oxford and New York, pp 417 – 421. 8. Bendimerad Fouad, The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/html/fpd/dmf/megacities.htm Group, 9. Sitarz Daniel (1993), Agenda 21: The Earth Summit Strategy to Save Our Planet, Earthpress, Boulder, Colorado. 10. <http://www.unchs.org/unchs/english/hagenda/ch 4C11.htm> 10