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NATIONAL ISSUE PAPER ON THE
AGRICULTURE SECTOR (ADAPTATION)
Author: Bal Krishna Prasai
August 2010
1
CONTENTS
Why agriculture is a key sector for country? ................................................................................... 3
Agriculture Sector............................................................................................................................. 9
Proposed Adaptation Measures for the Agriculture Sector .............. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Key Issues in Assessing Investment and Financial Flows to Address Climate Change Adaptation in
the Agricultural Sector....................................................................................................................18
Proposed Approach/Recommendation for Conducting the Assessment and Financial Flows to
Address Climate Change Adaptation in the Agriculture Sector .....................................................20
References ......................................................................................................................................23
2
Why agriculture is a key sector for country?
Agriculture remains Nepal’s principal economic activity, employing 65 per cent of the
population. Despite this, since agriculture sector is mostly subsistence, it contributes
only about 35 per cent to the total Gross Domestic Product. Only 21 per cent of Nepal’s
land is cultivable. The country is dominated by rain-fed agriculture, and only 33 per cent
of the cultivated land has irrigation facility. Therefore, the majority of the farmers still
rely on rainwater for irrigation. The agriculture sector in the Tenth Five Year (2002-2007)
Plan had the average annual growth rate of only 2.67 per cent against the targeted
annual growth of 4.11 per cent due to adverse climatic condition among others. 1 The
current Three Year Interim Plan (2007/08-2009/10) has projected the annual average
economic growth rate of 5.5 per cent. Of the overall growth, the agriculture sector is
estimated to grow by 3.6 per cent and non-agriculture sector by 6.5 per cent. 2
It is quite amazing that within the span of 200 km from north to south, the climate of
Nepal varies from arctic to tropical. Nepal also enjoys the four normal seasons: spring,
summer, autumn and winter. The annual mean temperature is about 150 Celsius and
increases from north to south with exception in valleys. The annual mean precipitation
is about 1800 mm and it ranges from more than 5000 mm in the south and less than 250
mm in the north due to greatly diverse topography. 3 Spatial distribution of rainfall is
also of great concern regarding the occurrence of floods, landslides and other extreme
events. Most floods occur during the monsoon season when heavy precipitation
coincides with snowmelt in the mountains.
The average temperature of Nepal is increasing at the rate of approximately 0.06
degrees Celsius per year (DHM). Nepal experienced twelfth warmest years on record in
the period from 1975 to 2007.4 The year 2006 was the hottest. However, the
temperature in the Himalayas is increasing at a faster rate and this can have serious
impacts on the glacial lakes. Although, no definite trend in aggregate precipitation has
been found, there are evidences of more intense precipitation events. 5 Glacial lake
outbursts can cause floods and landslides. In contrast, glacier retreats have also been
recorded which would lead to contracted flow of water during dry seasons.
In the last decade particularly, Nepal and the Indo-Gangetic plains of India, immediately
south of the mountain regions, experienced severely overcast skies during winter,
affecting major winter crops like potato, oilseeds, pulses and onions. The winter cold
wave in 1997/1998 reduced the yield of winter crops by 11-38 % compared to the
average of the preceding 10 years. 6 In recent years also, Nepal has been witnessing
1
Based on NPC, 2002.
Based on NPC, 2007.
3
Based on MOPE, 2004.
4
Malla, 2008.
5
Based on MoEST, 2008.
6
Based on APN/DHM, 2007.
2
3
undesirable climatic events, such as an increased frequency of extreme eventsparticularly, rainfall causing flooding and landslides, droughts, heat stress, hot winds,
cold waves, hailstones and snowfalls. Moreover, long dry spells and cold waves have
negatively affected crop production resulting in a crop failure. Eastern Terai faced
drought in 2006, which led to a decrease in rice production by 30 per cent and reduced
crop production of 12.5 per cent on a national basis. 7 Nearly 10 per cent of land
remained fallow due to rain deficits but mid-western Terai experienced heavy rains with
floods, which damaged standing crops and reduced production by 30 per cent. 8 The
incidence of hailstones has also increased, which damages crops during flowering and
fruiting time. More landslide events have been observed since 2006 in western Nepal,
causing damage to agricultural land and loss of human lives. There have also been shifts
in crop growing seasons, reductions in crop growth cycle, changes in cropping patterns,
and degradation of agricultural land.
The agriculture sector is very sensitive to climate change. There exists an intricate
relationship between climate, crop and animal production, and their long-term
implications. However, the relationships between climate and agriculture, and their
long-term implications, have been little studied in Nepal. Nepalese agriculture is highly
dependent on weather, and so climate change has serious implications. Glacier retreats
combined with higher temperatures, increased evapo-transpiration, lower soil moisture
levels, and decreased winter precipitation may bring about droughts in Nepal from
November to April.9 Success of crop production is entirely linked with the weather
condition and their relationship has a direct effect on the growth and development of a
crop, since the physiological function of the crop is governed by the climatic parameters.
In particular, crop production depends on air temperature and humidity.
Rice, maize, wheat, millet and barley are the major food crops grown in Nepal. The rice
crop requires abundant water for transplanting, and so is sensitive to the onset of
monsoon. If the pre-monsoon rains fail, they will delay transplanting and ultimately
reduce the rice yield. The rice actual yield increased by 9.5 per cent in the Terai plain,
5.9 per cent in the Hills and 16.6 per cent in the mountains under the elevated CO 2 but
dropped to 3.4 per cent in the Terai plain; it also continued to increase to 17.9 per cent
in the Hills and 36.1 per cent in the Mountains at 4 0C rise. 10 The yield, however,
decreased to -0.8 per cent in the Terai plains, 14.6 per cent in the Hills but increased to
39.1 per cent in the Mountains at 4 0C rise and +20 per cent rains.The rice potential
yield, rose by an average of 19.4 % under the elevated CO 2 but dropped to 4.9 % at 4 0C
rise in the Terai plains; 17.8% but again dropped to -4.5 % at 4 0C rise in the hills; and by
18.9% under the elevated CO 2 but further increased by 30.1% till 2 0C rise in the
mountains (Figure 1).
7
Regmi, 2007.
Malla, 2008.
9
Rai, 2007.
10
Based on APN/DHM, 2007.
8
4
Figure 1: Rice yield potential (t/ha) of different ecological regions. 11
Wheat is more adaptive due to photo insensitivity and the thermal factor. Wheat is
found to be more responsive to increased level of CO 2 than rice. The wheat actual yield
rose to 41.5 % in the Terai plain, 24.4 % in the hill and 21.2 % in the mountain under the
elevated CO 2 . The wheat yield, however, continued to drop to -1.8% in the Terai plain
and 5.3 % in the hill but increased to 33.3 % in the mountain at 4oC rise. 12 The wheat
response therefore showed favorable impacts in the mountains. Furthermore, the
additional rains also had favorable impacts on the wheat yield with similar kinds of
trends at all levels of temperature rise. The trends were also similar for the wheat
potential yields. The wheat potential yield rose to 56% in the Terai plains, 26.6% in the
hills and 21.8% in the mountains under the double the CO 2 concentration (Figure 2). But
again, yield continued to decline to -3.5 % in the Terai plains, to -1.6 % in the hills and to
1.9 % in the mountains. 13
Source: Climate Change and Agriculture in Nepal, DHM/APN, July 2007
Based on DHM/APN, 2007.
13
Based on DHM/APN, 2007.
11
12
5
Figure 2: Wheat yield potential (t/ha) of different ecological regions.14
Maize has greater ecological adaptation ability than rice with change of temperature
and precipitation. Hence, maize of the same variety can be grown over large altitudinal
variations. The effect of elevated CO 2 had little effect on raising maize yield. The maize
actual yield under the elevated CO 2 rose only by 9.0 % in the Terai plains, 4.9 % in the
hills and 15.5 % in the mountains.15 However, the maize yield continued to decline and
reached -26.4 % in the Terai plain, -9.3 % in the hills but rose to 26.8 % in the mountains
at 4 0C rise. The effect of additional rain was not significant in the Terai plains and hills
but was more favourable in the mountains. The maize potential yield rose again by 6.9
% in the Terai plains, 7.5 % in the hills and 6.7 % in the mountains (Figure3).
14
15
Source: Climate Change and Agriculture in Nepal, DHM/APN, July 2007
Based on DHM/APN, 2007.
6
Figure 3: Maize yield potential (t/ha) of different ecological regions. 16
Livestock is an integral part of Nepalese agriculture. Livestock are highly sensitive to
fluctuation of atmospheric temperature. An increase in temperature by 20 Celsius would
decrease the meat and milk quality, hatchability of poultry and increases the possibility
of disease in the livestock. 17 The limited herbaceous production, heat stress from higher
temperature, and limited water intake due to a decrease in rainfall could cause reduced
milk yields in animals and increased incidence of some diseases. However, increased
CO 2 in the atmosphere will have a positive impact on fodder production. On the other
hand, reduced precipitation and moisture availability could also hamper the grassland,
forage and fodder production and productivity. The effect of climate on herding of
livestock is vividly illustrated by yak’s behaviour. They are considered as endemic and
economic assets of the Himalayas and are considered the most sensitive mountain
animals to the changing temperatures. They are raised in the mountain areas ranging
from 3000 m to 5000 m elevation. Their movement from lower elevation to high
elevation and vice versa depends on the availability of forages and suitable
temperature. The suitable temperature for yak is between zero and ten degree Celsius.
They are very sensitive and non-tolerant to high temperature. 18
16
Source: Climate Change and Agriculture in Nepal, DHM/APN, July 2007.
Malla, 2008.
18
Based on MOPE, 2004.
17
7
Climate change is also affecting our fisheries and aquaculture sector. Cold water fish are
on the verge of extinction due to rise in temperature of surface water.
Climate change is likely to alter the balance between insect pests, their natural enemies
and their hosts. Increase in temperature and CO 2 will lead to an increase in population
of pests and severity of diseases in presence of host plant. It increases the rate of
reproductive cycle of insect and pest. Pests and diseases of plain ecosystems may
gradually shift to hills and mountains. 19 Some pathogens of important crops from the
Terai zone has adapted in hills and mid-hills (rust and foliar blight) that may affect the
agricultural production.
The decrease in crop yields and lower livestock productivity will ultimately create
negative food security situation in the country. Climate change will affect the livelihoods
of thousands of subsistence farmers who have no other sources of income other than
crops and livestock. It not only threatens their food security but also damages their
livelihood assets and sometimes results in loss of their lives as well. Besides, if
agriculture suffers from climate change, our economy is affected. Therefore, it is very
important for a country like Nepal which has least contribution to global greenhouse
gases production but highly vulnerable to climate change to adopt appropriate adaptive
measures to climate change to reduce the impact of climate change in agriculture. By
and large, adapting to climate change is essential for the long-term sustainability of
agriculture.
19
Based on Malla, 2008.
8
Description of the Agriculture Sector
Nepal is divided into three ecological regions, namely the Mountains, the Hills and the
Terai comprising of 35, 42 and 23 per cent of the total area of the country (147181 sq
km). The Mountains has only about 2 per cent of the land suitable for cultivation where
as the Hills and Terai have 10 per cent and 40 per cent of land suitable for cultivation
respectively. Terai, the plain region in the south, forms a low flat land and comprises
most of the fertile land and forest area of the country.
Food and Cash Crops Production
Paddy, maize, wheat, potato, millet and barley are the basic crops which use available
land resources of the country. Due to diversity in topography, culture and climatic
conditions, different cropping patterns are in use in Nepal. High Himalayas are not
suitable for cultivation, except for pasture or grazing lands. In these high mountain
areas, cattle are raised, and short duration crops like potato, buckwheat, barley and
mustard are grown mostly in summer. The middle mountain cropping pattern
constitutes rice/wheat cultivation in the irrigated lands and maize/millet or
maize/soybean in the rainfed lands. Siwalik and Terai are similar in terms of cropping
systems. Rice/wheat is the most dominant cropping combination pattern in these
regions but crops like sugarcane, pulses, oilseeds and vegetables are also commonly
grown here. Cereals, which account for about 78 per cent of the gross cropped area,
dominate the country’s crop sector.
Paddy is the major crop in Terai in terms of area allocation. In Terai region about 86 per
cent of arable land is covered by rice, followed by 44 and 33 per cent in the Hills and
Mountains regions respectively. In the Hills and Mountains rice is grown mainly on wet
valleys and river basins. Wheat is the second major crop in all four Terai regions except
mid-western Terai (pulses). Similarly, maize is the major crop in all four Hills regions
except far western Hills (wheat). However, paddy is the second major crop in four Hills
regions except mid-western Hills (wheat). In the Mountains maize is major crop in
eastern and central regions followed by wheat in mid western and far western regions.
A total of 7.3 million metric tons of cereals and 5 million metric tons of cash crops were
produced in the year 2006/07 (Table 1 and Table 2). Similarly, about 3 million metric
tons of other crops –pulses, vegetables and fruits were produced.
9
Table 1: Production of Cereal Crops, FY 2006/07
Paddy
Wheat
(MT)
Millet
Barley
(MT)
Maize
(MT)
(MT)
(MT)
Eastern
1084337
452800
261108
73618
2074
Central
1110649
461575
514392
68861
3133
Western
737162
503488
315804
107283
4578
Regions
Mid-Western
394718
304737
245543
22426
13728
Far- Western
353973
97325
178292
12625
4780
Mountain
120172
163609
81004
53407
12667
Hills
933852
1273111
436851
219556
14468
Terai
2626815
383205
997284
11850
1158
Total
3680839
1819925
1515139
284813
28293
Source: Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture, MoAC, GoN, 2006/07.
Table 2: Production of Cash Crops, FY 2006/07
Oilseed
Sugarcan
e
Jute
Pulses
(MT)*
(MT)
303228
16815
51015
1672
1153607
-
105048
241721
27
745582
-
33674
28771
187958
69
96600
-
60478
Far- Western
20276
101504
10
300772
-
24160
Total
135660
1943246
2648
2599789
16815
274375
(MT)
Potato
(MT)
Tobacco
(MT)
Eastern
25790
713343
870
Central
45913
698720
Western
14910
Mid-Western
Regions
(MT)
Source: Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture, MoAC, GoN, 2006/07.
*Jute is grown only in Eastern Development Region.
Livestock
Livestock has been considered as an integral part of the Nepalese farming system.
Cattle, buffalo, sheep, goat, pigs and poultry are the livestock species reared across
different agro-ecological zones. Over half of the total livestock are reared in the hills, 5.8
million LU, followed by the Terai, 4.1 million LU, and the Mountain, 1.3 million LU.20
Livestock rearing is an important enterprise of the poor people and sale of livestock and
20
Sharma, 2006.
10
their products constitute nearly 55 per cent of farm income (Sharma, 2006). The
contribution together with food (meat, milk and eggs) fibre, hide/skins and
transportation amounts to about 15 per cent of GDP and 28 per cent of agriculture GDP
(MoAC, 2006). Livestock ensures sustainability of the hill agriculture by contributing to
soil fertility maintenance and agriculture draft power. Nepal is taken to be one of the
highest livestock density countries of the world; yet, the average productivity of animals
is one of the lowest in the world. In the year 2006/07, 227105 metric tons of meat,
1351394 metric tons of milk and milk products, and about 60 million eggs were
produced (Table 3).
Table 3: Livestock Products and Fish Production of Nepal, 2006/07
Description
Meat
Milk and Milk Product
Eggs
Aquaculture
Practices
Aquaculture
Fish
Public Sector
Capture
Fisheries
Unit
Production
MT
MT
1000 (no)
227105
1351394
614848
MT
23750
MT
28
MT
20100
Source: Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture, MoAC, GoN, 2006/07.
Pasture lands have historically been a major source of livestock rearing in Nepal. They
have been utilized in sedentary and migratory grazing systems. Pasture lands vary from
subtropical grasslands at lower elevation to alpine meadows on ridge tops in the midhills and high mountain valleys of the inner Himalayan range. At present 12 per cent of
the land constitutes pasture land.21 Due to constant grazing, poor management, and
extreme climate these areas have been degraded at an alarming rate.
Fish Production
A total of 44 thousand metric tons of fish was produced in the year 2006/07 (Table 3).
Exports and Imports
Agricultural commodities and products amounting to the value of NRs four billion 660
million were exported to India and third countries, and agricultural commodities and
products amounting to the value of NRs eight billion 330 million were imported from
India and other countries in 2006/07 (MoF, 2008).
21
Sharma, 2006.
11
Food Supply
The Interim Constitution of Nepal, 2007 has recognized food sovereignty as a basic
human right. The ratio of the population who are not in a position to consume the
minimum number of calories in the country is 39.9 per cent.22 About 35 per cent of the
population feels the shortage of food materials. Out of 75, 41 districts are food deficit
districts. The present availability of food is 280 kg per person. The government is
providing a transport subsidy to 10 remote districts of Nepal for the supply of food
grains. The Interim Plan targets to keep 42,000 metric tons and 12,000 metric tons of
food grains as buffer stocks for national food security and for SAARC level buffer stock
respectively.
Nepal was self-sufficient in food grain production until 1990. Thereafter, the increase in
food grain production fell short of population growth, and from 1990-1999 national
production was unable to meet the population’s need (Table 4). With the bump in
cereal production in 1999, Nepal was again self-sufficient in food grains. Due to drought
condition in 2005/06, production fell short by 21553 metric tons and is expected to be
deficit by 179910 metric tons in 2006/07 due to drought and natural calamities (Table
4).
The food problems in the remote hill areas are critical due to difficulties in
transportation and the competitive nature of the market. The problem of food grain and
nutritious food availability has persisted in remote areas. Food security has deteriorated
due to reduction in the access of means and resources, inequality within households,
shortfall in emergency assistance, and consumption of easily available but unhealthy
food.
Table 4: Edible Cereal Grain Production and Requirement of Nepal, 1994/95-2006/07
Year/
Crops
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
22
Rice
1577820
1949761
2002747
2035725
2074193
2259393
2356646
2294205
2271914
2455971
2358540
Maize
Wheat
Millet
Barley
883267
929513
894779
940767
920094
1007178
1001478
999831
1059751
1082455
1186840
709304
786936
827438
806849
855647
934559
914885
1008827
1069257
1105087
1151282
219262
236478
236982
233764
238968
242331
231915
231714
231931
232373
237778
8107
11190
10641
10244
8710
8478
8255
8472
8613
8485
8113
Based on NPC, 2007.
12
Total
Prod
3397760
3913878
3972587
4027349
4097612
4451939
4513179
4543049
4641466
4884371
4942553
Total
Rqmnt.
3882915
3948229
4079135
4178077
4279491
4383443
4430128
4463027
4565820
4671344
4779710
Total Bal.
-85155
-34351
-106548
-150728
-181879
68496
83051
80022
75646
213027
162843
2005/06
2006/07
2314065
2060280
1097612
1292259
1211445
1211898
238651
242333
7667
8514
4869440
4815284
4890993
4995194
Source: Statistical information on the Nepalese Agriculture, MOAC, GON, 2006/07.
13
-21553
-179910
PROPOSED ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR THE AGRICULTURE
SECTOR
The IPCC defines climate change adaptation as an adjustment in natural and human
systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits benefit opportunities. 23
Traditionally, farmers, pastoralists, forest dwellers and fishers have learned to cope with
the impacts of weather and climate through a range of crops and farming practices that
suit to new conditions. But the severity and pace of climate change is presenting new
challenges. Changes in temperature and precipitation as well as more frequent extreme
weather are expected to result in crop and livestock production shortfalls and other
asset losses, thereby threatening food production but also access, stability and
utilization of food resources. In some areas, the changes may well exceed the
adaptation capacity of the people. Poor farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate
change as they cannot withstand a drop in their income from agriculture and are not
well equipped to adapt to major changes.
In its initial National Communication, Nepal has identified and suggested following
adaptation strategies:
A. Resource Conservation for Agricultural Sustainability
Rice-wheat cropping systems are the most important and dominant cropping system in
the country. Under this strategy, soil management is improved through surface seeding
in the wheat and bed planting in rice allowing minimum tillage. This practice will reduce
carbon loss as well as the cost of production and the water requirement by over 20 per
cent. This saves large amounts of carbon emissions from rice-wheat farming system.
B. Development of Genetically Adaptive Varieties
Many local varieties have good tolerance of heat stress, drought, insect and diseases.
Rice and wheat variety should be developed and adopted by using local genes in rice
and wheat.
C. Full Scale Production System of Hybrid Maize Program
Hybrid maize production can reduce the impact of global warming on maize as they can
better grow and have significant yield advantages of at least 50 per cent.
D. Encouragement to Crop Diversification Program
Mono-cropping will likely bring greater risks associated with frequent extreme climatic
events. Crop diversification program including multiple and mixed cropping should be
promoted. The crop diversification programme reduces the risk of crop failure, will
diversify income sources and conserve natural resources. Horticulture and other cash
23
Based on IPCC 2001.
14
crops are suitable for hills, and cereal crops for Terai. Some 213 varieties of different
crops have been released (Annex 1). These crops are adapted to water stress, frostbites
or prolonged drought situations, day lengths or high or low temperature.
E. Promotion of Organic-based Farming
Organic-based farming, instead of using chemical fertilizer and pesticides, is encouraged
using many indigenous technologies available in the country.
F. Discouragement to the Slash and Burn Agricultural System
Slash and burn practices, which are common among some communities for the
expansion of agricultural land, should be discouraged through legal and technical
measures.
G. Development of Early Warning System
Development of a warning system for hailstone occurrences prior to harvest time could
save crops. Similarly, the forecast of winter cold waves could save winter crops like
potato, oilseed crops, lentil and winter vegetable crops from being badly damaged.
Development of an early warning system for extreme weather conditions is essential.
H. Agro-forestry and Forage Development
Degraded forestland or abandoned land needs to be rehabilitated through the
participation of poor and rural farmers.
I. A Comprehensive Land Use Policy
A comprehensive policy on land use system should be adopted through a co-legislative
approach and certain ratio of forest and agricultural land should be maintained.
J. Management of Methane Emissions
Rice is the most important crop for Nepal and may well emit even larger amounts of
methane in future. Minimization of methane and nitrous oxide from the rice fields can
be achieved through improvements in the efficiency of fertilizer use (sulfur coated
urea), slow releasing of fertilizers, and irrigation management (such as alternate
flooding and drying the rice field). Similarly, rain-fed varieties of rice can be used.
K. Promotion of Biogas as a Source
Biogas saves fuel wood and biogas slurry is also a source of fertilizer. Promotion of
biogas should be adopted in rural areas.
L. Manage the Livestock Population
Improving ruminant livestock’s digestion through better feeding to minimize methane
emissions may be a potential adaptation strategy for Nepal. Mixing of urea molasses in
straw feeding is a commonly used practice to encourage better digestion. Similarly,
supplementation of amino acids in the livestock feed costs little but effectively reduces
15
the N-excretion responsible for nitrate-nitrate pollution in the soil and water. Large
numbers of unproductive animals in the hills should be discarded.
Some of the other adaptation options relevant for Nepal’s agriculture are as follows24
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increase irrigation capacity, crop failure insurance and drought resistant
varieties
Government food relief, stockpiling and processing of food
Disease resistant plant, integrated pest management
Increase water supply, redesign livestock practices
Increase water management regimes, subsidies
Improve land management practices
Better transport structure
Crop rotation
Research on faster growing varieties to catch season
Improve predictive and response capacity-water response management
Use artificial systems to improve water use availability
Protection devices and provision of shades in pastures
Improve education for farm workers.
The following adaptation measures are proposed for the Adaptation Scenario
Adaptation Measures
1. More research on development of heat stress, drought, flood, and
pests and disease resistance varieties of food crops such as rice,
wheat, maize, millet, barley, cash crops, vegetables and fruit crops
as per ecological regions
2. Research on development of new breed of poultry and
livestock species tolerant to heat stress, pest and diseases
3. Research on development of fodder and forage species
resistant to drought or cold wave
4. Research on development of fish species tolerant to heat
stress
5. Research on agriculture and livestock practices that help to
increase agriculture and livestock production
6. Soil improvement
7. Pasture and fodder development
8. Increased irrigation facility
9. Installation of early warning system for extreme weather
conditions such as hailstones and cold wave etc.
10. Disease and Pest Control
24
Based on MoEST, 2008.
16
Annual Budget
Requirement (Rs in
million)*
30
5
5
5
5
3
10
420
5
12
11. Livestock and Poultry Insurance
12. Crop insurance
13. Establishment of seed and gene banks
14. Establishment of more semen banks
15. Alternative livelihood programs for farmers
16. Increased crops, vegetables, fishery and livestock extension
services and training to farmers
17. Food security
18. Preservation and dissemination of indigenous knowledge
related to adaptation
19. River training, soil erosion and silt control activities
20. Water harvesting and water conservation (both surface and
ground water)
21. Settlements for displaced farmers
22. Awareness raising program
23. Total
50
100
1
1
7
10
25
1
104
100
50
2
Rs.951
Or 12 million US
dollars(1 $= Rs 80)
* The annual budget requirement for each adaptation measure is just an indicative amount
which has been roughly estimated based on the data available from various sources (such as
Agricultural Perspective Plan, Periodic Plans and Annual Plans Documents).
17
Key Issues in Assessing Investment and Financial Flows to
Address Climate Change Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector
Data and Information Availability
The country has already begun the preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of
Action (NAPA). The NAPA process would greatly help in the assessment of investment
and financial flows needed for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector.
Various types of adaptation measures to climate change in the agriculture sector have
already been in place for a historic period of time and the Initial National
Communication of Nepal submitted to UNFCCC has proposed some new adaptive
measures for agriculture sector to respond to climate change. There are various actors
involved in adaptation measures ranging from public and private actors to individual
small farmers. The role and responsibility of each actor has not been well specified. A
full range of potential adaptation measures in the agriculture sector to address climate
change have also not been clearly identified. It is very difficult to get information on
adaptation measures being carried out by various agencies and amount of money being
spent on adaptation measures. In the public sector also, no system has been introduced
to allocate financial resources for adaptation measures to climate change alone as the
country has not fully mainstreamed climate change aspects in its planning and budget
process; rather adaptive measures are embedded within broader sector-initiatives.
Government ministries, departments and other public agencies listed under institutional
arrangement are not yet fully prepared to climate change adaptation in the agriculture
sector. Adaptation Programmes implemented by various agencies over the years could
be reviewed and the budget spent on those activities need to be segregated. This would
be a rigorous exercise for an investment and financial analyst.
Methodological Approach
First, there is a need to identify the scope of agriculture sector. The adaptation
measures to climate change in the agriculture sector should take into account
adaptation measures related to agriculture (cereals, cash crops, oilseeds, vegetables and
fruit crops), livestock (cattle, buffalo, goats and sheep, poultry) and pasture; and
fisheries (freshwater) sector only excluding forestry sector which itself is a large sector
and needs to be dealt separately. This sector may also include irrigation and soil
conservation activities. Data on adaptation measures being undertaken for the
agriculture sector are very limited and difficult to access to. However, some information
can be obtained from Agriculture Perspective Plan, 1995, Periodic Plan Documents (Past
and current), annual plan documents and progress reports of concerned ministries and
their agencies. Some estimates can be made based on the expenditures incurred in the
past.
Review of Literature: All available literatures on agriculture and impacts of climate
change on agriculture particularly crops and initiatives undertaken by various agencies
18
in response to climate change are to be reviewed. Similarly, available literatures on
livestock and fisheries particularly with respect to climate change impacts and coping
strategy and initiatives being undertaken by concerned agencies need to be reviewed.
No scenarios of adaptation in the agriculture sector have been developed so far in
Nepal.
Experts’ Views: Experts working for many years in the field of agriculture, livestock and
fisheries do have experience on adaptation measures and techniques as well as cost
associated with these measures and techniques. Experts’ views are therefore to be
solicited to come up with the real investment amount to be required for the appropriate
adaptation measure to respond to the impacts of climate change.
Collection of Data and Information: Data and information on agriculture, livestock and
fisheries are to be collected from key institutions such as Ministry of Agriculture and
Cooperatives, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Irrigation, Ministry of Energy,
Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation, Department of Agriculture, Department of
Livestock Services, Department of Irrigation, National Academy for Science and
Technology, Nepal Agricultural Research Council, International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development (ICIMOD) etc.
Organization of Workshops and Seminars: Workshops, seminars and Interactions are to
be organized with active participation of key stakeholders and farmers. Interaction and
contact with local, regional, national and international organizations working in the field
of agriculture, livestock and fisheries development are to be established.
Time Horizon
Time horizon for the scenario analysis of investment and financial flows could be 10
years considering the 20-year time frame of the agriculture perspective plan which is
under implementation since 1995. There is no information on suitable model for Nepal
to undertake investment and financial flows of adaptation measures to climate change
in the agriculture sector. Many assumptions have to be made by a panel of experts in
absence of information about the cost of particular adaptation measure.
Capacity Development
The country has very limited capacity to implement investment and financial flows of
adaptation measures since it lacks trained manpower that are capable to handle
adaptation measures and that can do investment and financial analysis of adaptation
measures. There is also lack of financial resources to undertake potential adaptation
measures. There is also knowledge gap on adaptive measures within the country and
lack of information on adaptive measures already developed and tested in other
countries. There is a need to enhance capacity of all stakeholders of private and public
sectors including small farmers with regard to adaptation measures and investment
decisions.
19
Proposed Approach/Recommendation for Conducting the
Assessment and Financial Flows to Address Climate Change
Adaptation in the Agriculture Sector
Institutional Arrangements
The Ministry of Environment should be the executing agency. Other key stakeholders
will be the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Irrigation, the Ministry of Energy, the
Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation, the Ministry of Finance, the National Planning
Commission, the Department of Financial Comptroller General, the Department of
Agriculture, the Department of Livestock Services, the National Agricultural Research
Council, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the Department of Irrigation,
the Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention, the Department of Soil and
Water Conservation. A Steering Committee is formed under the chairmanship of
Secretary, MoE with members representing from various Ministries to advise, guide,
supervise and support to the project. A Technical Committee is formed under the
chairmanship of Joint Secretary, Environment Division, MoE, with members
representing from various departments and National Agriculture Research Council to
give technical inputs to the project.
The department of agriculture can give information on impacts of climate change on
crops and fisheries, various types of adaptation initiatives being undertaken by the
department in response to the impacts of climate change and on the organizations and
employees involved in climate change activities. It can also provide information on
appropriate agricultural adaptation technologies developed and disseminated to
farmers or on indigenous adaptation measures that farmers have been adopting for
many years. The department can also furnish information on problems being faced by
the farmers relating to climate change and on the types of extension services that it has
provided to the farmers. Similarly, the department of livestock services can provide
information on various types of initiatives that it has taken in livestock sector in
response to the climate change impacts. The Nepal Agricultural Research Centre can
provide information on researches being undertaken in the field of climate change and
on development of new variety of seeds of crops and new species of livestock and
fisheries that are friendly to climate change.
The department of hydrology and meteorology can provide information on hydrological
and meteorological services being rendered to farmers to timely respond to climate
change. The department of irrigation can furnish information on traditional and modern
irrigation technologies being used by farmers. The department of water- induced
disaster prevention can give information on various types of water-induced disasters
that have been experienced in the country and the programmes being implemented to
prevent and control such disasters. Likewise, the department of soil and water
conservation can give information on soil and water conservation problems and
measures being undertake to tackle those problems.
20
The Ministry of Environment will coordinate with all stakeholders through above
proposed committees.
National Sources of Finance and Investment for the Agriculture Sector
The agriculture sector has been given the utmost priority in almost all plans. Besides
government’s own resources, the agriculture sector has been receiving financial and
technical support from various bilateral and multilateral agencies for over five decades.
In the current Three Year Interim Plan (2007/08-2009/10), Rs 30 billion is estimated to
be spent by private sector and Rs 15 billion from the public sector for the development
of this sector.
The major sources of finance in the sector include grants from the government of Nepal
(GON), grants from bilateral agencies (DIFID, Japan-KR2, NORAD, SDC) and grants and
loans from multilateral agencies (ADB, IFAD, WB). The GON is funding for agricultural
research, APP programme, crop diversification, sericulture development, horticultural
development, fisheries development, seeds promotion, crop protection, agriculture
information, agricultural extension, agro-enterprises and agriculture marketing,
livestock services and animal health programmes. The NORAD has financed for crops
protection programme. The DFID is providing financial support for agricultural research
and programmes under Agricultural Perspective Plan, 1995 where as the SDC is
supporting for sustainable land development project. The Japanese KR-2 fund is
financing special agricultural production and training programmes. The ADB is funding
agro-enterprise and community livestock development projects. The WB is financing
food security, integrated water management and agricultural research projects and
programmes. The IFAD is supporting for leasehold forestry and livestock development
programmes.
Draft Work Plan for Assessing Investment and Financial Flows
The study will be completed within 10 months from the date of signing of the contract
with the consultants. The detailed work schedule is given below:
S.No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
Activities
Selection of Consultants by MoE
Formation of Steering and Technical Committees
Inception Report from Consultants
Collection of Relevant materials and Literature
Review
Scoping of the Sector, Identification of Key
Adaptation Measures of the Sector and
Assessment of Investment and Financial Flows of
Adaptation Measures
Preparation of Reference and Adaptation Scenario
21
Months
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
7
8
9
10
11
12
Projection of Investment and Financial Flows of
Reference and Adaptation Scenario
Writing of the Report on Investment and Financial
Flows on Adaptation Measures of Agriculture
Sector
Review of the Report Writing (every month)
Submission of the First Draft Report
Stakeholders Consultation and Feedback
Final Report Submission
Annex 1: Recent varieties (after Year 2001) released or registered for Hills, Mountains
and Terai compatible to modest climate change in the medium term by topographic
regions
S.
No.
1
Crop
type
Paddy
2
Paddy,
Main
Season
3
Variety
Region of suitability
Hardinath-1
Terai, Inner Terai
Khumal-8
Tar, Foot-hill to Mid-hills
15
Wheat
Terai, Inner Terai, Low and
Mid-hills
Mithila
Terai
Ram
Central Terai, Siwalik
Barkhe 3004
Terai, Inner Terai
Pokhareli
Pokhara Valley and
Jethobudha
Surrounding
Manjushree-2 Kathmandu Valley
Khumal-11
Kathmandu Valley
Chandannath- Jumla Valley and Similar
1
High Hills
Chandannath- Jumla Valley and Similar
3
High Hills
Deuti
Mid-hills
Shitala
Mid-hills
Gaurav
Terai, Inner Terai and FootHybrid
hill
Manakamana Mid-hills of Eastern,
-3
Central/W. Dev. Region
Gautam
Terai,Tar and Valley
16
Lentil
Sital
17
Soybea
n
Puja
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
12
13
Maize
14
18
Lokatantra
Tarkari
Bhatmas-1
Terai, Inner Terai and Midhills
Terai, Inner Terai and Midhills
Mid-hills
22
Year
Remarks
Released
2004
1966 to date 11
varieties released
2007
1967 to date 44
varieties released
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2002
2002
2002
2002
2006
2006
2003
1965 to date 19
varieties released
2002
2004
2004
2006
2004
1966 to date 28
varieties released
Similarly from years
1965 to date
released varieties
number 6 for Barley,
3 for Finger millet, 8
for Lentil, 6 for
19
20
21
22
23
Cowpe
a
Mung
bean
Surya
Rapese
ed
Preeti
24,25 Ground
nut
26
Sugarca
ne
27
Ginger
28
Oat
Kalyan
Pratiksha
Unnati
Baidehi and
Rajarsi
Jitpur-4 and
Jitpur-3
Kapurkot
Aduwa-1
Kamadhenu
and Netra Jai
Central and Western Terai,
Foot-hill
Terai, Inner Terai, Foot and
Mid-hill
Terai, Inner Terai, Foot and
Mid-hills
Terai, Inner Terai, Valley
Irrigated
Western/ Inner Terai,Valley
Rainfed, EDR Mid-hill
2004
2006
2006
2005
2005
Terai, Inner Terai
2005
Terai, Inner Terai
2004
Terai, Foot-hills and Midhills
Terai and Mid-hills
2001
Source: Nepal Agricultural Research Council, MoAC, GoN.
23
2004
chickpea, 8 for
Soybean. Similarly
Cowpea 3, Mung
bean 3, Rape seed 6,
Mustard 2, Pigeon
pea 2, Sesame 1,
Niger 1, Ground nut
6, Sugarcane 4, Jute
2, Ginger 1, Potato
and Radish each 6, A
number of vegetable
cultivars released or
registered. A total of
213 varieties of 45
different crops since
1960s.
References
APN/DHM, 2007. Climate Change in Nepal, Asia Pacific Network/ Department of
Hydrology and Meteorology, MoE, GoN, July 20, 2007, Kathmandu.
IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability, Third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
2001.
Malla, G. 2008. Climate Change and its Impact on Nepalese Agriculture. The Journal of
Agriculture and Environment, MoAC, GoN, June 2008, Kathmandu.
MoF, 2008. Economic Survey, Ministry of Finance, GoN, 2008, Kathmandu.
MoEST, 2008. Stocktaking and Stakeholder Consultation for the Preparation of the
Proposal for Second National Communication Report for Non-Annex I Parties, Ministry
of Environment, Science and Technology, GoN, November 2008, Kathmandu, Nepal.
MoPE, 2004. Initial National Communication to the Conference of Parties of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Ministry of Population and
Environment, July 2004. Kathmandu.
NPC, 2002. Tenth Plan. National Planning Commission, His Majesty’s Government of
Nepal, 2002, Kathmandu.
NPC, 2007. Three Year Interim Plan, National Planning Commission, Government of
Nepal, December 2007, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Rai, M., 2007. Climate Change and Agriculture: A Nepalese Case. The Journal of
Agriculture and Environment, MoAC, GoN, June 2007, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Regmi, H. R., 2007. Effect of Unusual Weather on Cereal Crops Production and
Household Food Security. The Journal of Agriculture and Environment, MoAC, GoN, June
2007, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Sharma, B., 2006. The Role of Pasture and Fodder Development Programme for Landless
Farmer in Degraded Forest land of Mid and High Hills of Nepal. The Journal of
Agriculture and Environment, MoAC, GoN, Kathmandu, Nepal.
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