Download Mahindra Lifespace

Result Update
August 5, 2015
Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside
:
:
:
:
Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)
Buy
| 590
24 months
37%
Forays into Bengaluru market.…
What’s Changed?
Target
EPS FY16E
EPS FY17E
Rating
Changed from | 625 to | 590
Changed from | 33.6 to | 28.4
Changed from | 48.4 to | 41.9
Unchanged
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
PAT
Q1FY16 Q1FY15
YoY (% ) Q4FY15
175.0
406.6
-57.0
259.1
41.9
260.9
(83.9)
50.0
23.9
64.2 -4021 bps
19.3
21.6
179.3
(87.9)
30.6
QoQ (%)
-32.5
(16.2)
464 bps
(29.4)
Key Financials
| Crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS (|)
FY14
705.3
170.2
100.6
24.6
FY15E
1,086.1
424.2
116.2
28.4
FY16E
1,255.8
312.1
115.9
28.4
FY17E
1,383.8
388.7
171.2
41.9
FY14
20.4
24.0
19.9
1.6
8.0
5.8
FY15E
17.6
20.7
7.8
1.4
18.3
14.7
FY16E
17.7
20.8
9.9
1.3
7.6
11.0
FY17E
12.0
14.1
7.5
1.2
10.3
13.8
Valuation summary
(x)
P/ E (Adjusted)
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW (%)
RoCE (% )
Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalization
Total Debt
Cash and Investments
EV
52 week H/L (|)
Equity capital
Face value
Amount
| 2050.2 crore
| 1237 crore
| 77 crore
| 3210 crore
664 / 386
| 40.8 crore
| 10
Price performance (%)
Return %
Sobha Developers
Oberoi Realty
Mahindra Lifespace
BSE Realty
1M
0.2
(3.3)
6.6
(1.6)
3M
(8.8)
(1.5)
(2.7)
(11.6)
| 430
6M
(24.3)
(6.4)
(11.6)
(23.2)
12M
(20.9)
2.8
(23.1)
(26.1)
Research Analyst
Deepak Purswani, CFA
[email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
• Mahindra Lifespace Developers’ (MLDL) standalone net sales
declined 65.5% YoY to | 104.6 crore. The sharp decline was on
account of the high base effect in Q1FY15 as MLDL had booked | 325
crore sales proceeds from Byculla land development rights
• The standalone PAT at | 17.8 crore (de-grew 88.9% YoY) below our
estimate of | 30.3 crore mainly on account of lower-than-expected
sales and higher interest expense of | 6 crore
• On the consolidated front, MLDL's revenues declined 75.2% YoY to
| 175 crore. The EBITDA margin was healthy at 23.9% while net
profit came in at | 21.6 crore
• In terms of sales volume in the residential segment, the company
sold 242 units (0.26 mn sq ft) vs. 106 units (0.12 mn sq ft) in Q1FY15
across all projects worth | 185 crore. We also highlight the above
sales does not include 85 units worth | 158 crore sold in June, 2015
as sales collection had been lower than 10% of its sales value
Expands footprints in Bengaluru market…
MLDL has forayed into the Bengaluru market in Q1FY16, with the launch
of premium ‘Windchimes’ (0.44 mn sq ft). The initial response has been
very good as it managed to sell 72 units aggregating | 101 crore within a
week of its launch. With this launch along with sales volume from
affordable housing in Boisar & Chennai and planned launch in Mumbai,
we anticipate MLDL’s sales volume will grow at a CAGR of 26.1% in FY1517E. Consequently, we anticipate MLDL’s topline and bottomline to grow
at 12.9% and 21.4% CAGR, respectively, in FY15-17E.
JV with Sumitomo Corp for North Chennai…
In Q1FY16, MLDL signed a joint venture agreement with Sumitomo
Corporation for the North Chennai industrial park project in the ratio of
60:40. The phase involves development of 300 acres with total
investment of | 375 crore. Furthermore, MLDL has also got government
approval for conversion of 500 acres from residential and social part to
domestic tariff part in Jaipur integrated development. In our view, this
development should keep its cash flow on the fast track, going ahead.
Reduced leverage & strong parentage gives us comfort…
With the sales proceeds from Byculla property development rights,
MLDL’s consolidated net debt to equity has come down from 1.1x in FY14
to 0.78x in Q1FY16. The recent JV with Sumitomo Corp would also help it
to improve its balance sheet, going ahead. Furthermore, we also derive
our comfort in MLDL due to its strong parentage. MLDL is promoted by
the Mahindra Group, which has a diversified presence across businesses.
The group has exhibited a strong track record of being the top players
across business verticals. The strong management lends us comfort that
MLDL will emerge as a dominant player in the real estate space as well.
Attractive valuation with strong parentage; maintain BUY…
Considering the parentage advantage and ramp up in the project portfolio
led by recent land acquisition, we believe current valuations (at 0.5x
potential NAV and 1.2x FY17 P/BV) are attractive. We maintain our BUY
recommendation with a target price of | 590 (0.7x its potential NAV).
Variance analysis (Standalone)
Particular
Income from Operation
Q1FY16 Q1FY16E Q4FY15 QoQ (Chg %) Q1FY15
104.6
225.3
131.5
-20.5
303.1
YoY (Chg %)
-65.5
Other Income
24.1
30.0
24.1
0.1
39.9
-39.5
Cost of Projects
Operating Expenses
Employee cost
Other expenditure
72.3
4.1
13.2
8.5
58.4
2.1
6.5
5.3
85.4
9.7
14.2
9.8
-15.4
-58.2
-6.8
-13.4
49.4
9.2
9.7
29.2
46.2
-56.0
37.0
-70.8
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (% )
Depreciation
Interest
6.6
6.3
1.0
6.0
16.3
7.2
0.5
1.4
12.3
9.4
0.5
4.6
-46.8
- 311 bps
126.1
28.8
205.7
67.8
0.8
7.9
-96.8
-6158 bps
33.3
-25.1
23.7
5.9
17.8
44.4
14.1
30.3
31.4
8.6
22.8
-24.4
-31.3
-21.8
236.9
77.0
159.8
-90.0
-92.3
-88.9
0.3
0.4
0.4
-40.9
0.1
116.7
PBT
Taxes
PAT
Key Metrics
Sales Volume (msf)
Comments
Standalone net sales declined 65.5% YoY to | 104.6 crore. The sharp decline was
on account of high base effect in Q1FY15 as MLDL had booked | 325 crore sales
proceeds from Byculla land development rights
Standalone PAT at | 17.8 crore (de-grew 88.9% YoY) was below our estimate of
| 30.3 crore mainly on account of lower than expected sales & higher interest
expense
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Change in estimates
(| Crore)
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT
EPS (|)
Old
1,383.1
343.7
24.9
137.3
33.6
FY16E
New % Change
1,255.8
-9.2
312.1
-9.2
24.9
-4 bps
115.9
-15.6
28.4
-15.5
Old
1,658.2
429.8
25.9
197.8
48.4
FY17E
New % Change
1,383.8
-16.6
388.7
-9.6
28.1 219 bps
171.2
-13.4
41.9
-13.4
Comments
We have lowered our sales volume & revenues recognisition assumptions
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Assumptions
Volume sold in msf
Residential Sales
Volume
MWC leasing (acres)
MWCJ leasing (acres)
FY13
1.1
FY14
0.9
FY15
1.6
62.8
74.1
49.8
56.0
29.8
59.0
Current
FY16E
FY17E
1.8
2.6
9.8
62.0
-0.2
65.0
Earlier
FY16E
FY17E
1.9
2.8
29.8
79.7
Comments
We have now considered factored in sales slowdown in our estimates
9.8
100.0
[
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Consolidated performance…
Exhibit 1: Consolidated Performance
(| Crore)
Total operating income
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (% )
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Reported PAT
EPS (|)
Q1FY16
175.0
41.9
23.9
4.2
12.0
12.6
21.6
4.3
Q1FY15
406.6
260.9
64.2
3.2
14.6
29.9
179.3
43.9
YoY (Chg %)
-57.0
-83.9
-4021 bps
30.9
-17.8
-58.0
-87.9
-90.3
Q4FY15
259.1
50.0
19.30
3.3
15.0
9.4
30.6
7.5
QoQ (Chg %)
-32.5
-16.2
464 bps
27.0
-20.1
34.2
-29.4
-43.3
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Company Analysis
Sales volume pick-up hinges on new project launches…
During the quarter, the company sold 242 units [0.26 million square feet
(mn sq ft)] vs. 106 units (0.12 mn sq ft) in Q1FY15 across all projects
worth | 185 crore. Historically, MLD has limited land bank in the
residential segment. Hence, its sales volume declined from 1.2 million sq
ft in FY12 to 0.9 mn sq ft in FY14. However, in the last two years, MLDL
has added land inventory of ~4 mn sq ft across various cities like
Hyderabad, Pune, Bengaluru and Chennai.
With these acquisitions, MLDL currently has a pipeline of 3.9 mn sq ft,
which will be launched over the next 12-18 months providing strong
visibility over sales volumes. With these acquisitions, we build in
residential sales volume of 1.8 mn sq ft and 2.6 mn sq ft in FY16E and
FY17E, respectively.
1691
2.5
1.5
444
1.0
1.8
2.6
500
FY13
FY14E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Sales V alue (RHS)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
1000
371
1.6
0.0
1500
999
0.9
0.5
2000
(| crore)
707
2.0
1.1
0.26
0.44
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Sales Volume
3.0
Q1FY16
0.59
93
0.23
54.0
185
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
(mn sq feet)
250
Exhibit 3: Forthcoming project to boost sales volume, going ahead
(| crore)
310
Q2FY15
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
Q1FY15 0.12
(mn sq feet)
Exhibit 2: Volumes remained subdued in last few quarters
Sales V olume
0
Sales Value (RHS)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 4: Strong forthcoming project pipeline to push up sales volume, going ahead
Existing projects new phases
New Projects
Location
Pune
Chennai
Chennai
Nagpur
NCR
Mumbai
Mumbai
Bengaluru
Project
Antheia subsequent phases
Aqualily subsequent phases
Happinest Avadi - subsequent phases
Bloomdale subsequent phases
Luminare–subsequent phases*
TheSerenes, Alibaug–subsequent phases
Happinest Boisar–subsequent phases
W indchimes- Subsequent phases
Mumbai
Mumbai
Forthcoming projects over the next 12-18 months
Andheri
Sakinaka
Company
MLDL
MRDL
MLDL
MBDL
MHPL
MLDL
MLDL
MHPL
MLDL Holding
100%
96%
100%
70%
50%
100%
100%
50%
ESA (mn sft)
0.56
0.20
0.29
0.68
0.73
0.11
0.17
0.43
MLDL
MLDL
100%
100%
Total
0.37
0.32
3.86
[
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
*Joint Development
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Page 3
Consolidated revenues to grow at 12.9% CAGR during FY15-17E…
As highlighted earlier, the limited land bank in the residential portfolio has
kept MLDL revenues flattish in the last few years. Going ahead, with the
recent addition of acquisition from the land bank, we anticipate MLDL’s
sales volume will jump from 1.6 mn sq ft in FY15 to 2.6 mn sq ft in FY17E,
which should lead to better revenues booking from the residential
portfolio. This coupled with land leases from MWC Chennai and Jaipur
SEZ will lead to topline at 12.9% CAGR during FY15-17E compared to
flattish revenues in the last couple of years.
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
1600
1400
1200
1,086.1
1,255.8
1,383.8
(| crore)
705.3
400
200
0
Exhibit 6: Forthcoming project to boost sales volume, going ahead…
CAGR - 12.9%
738.3
(| crore)
Exhibit 5: Consolidated revenues to grow at 12.9% CAGR during FY15-17E
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
1000
800
600
400
200
109
78
123
96
76
104
122
352
165
96
67
307
624
FY13
FY14
FY15
94
100
137
137
136
130
152
118
760
834
FY16E
FY17E
Standalone*
MWC - Chennai
MWC - Jaipur
MRDL*
MITL*
Others
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research * Residential segment
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
EBITDA margin to improve ahead…
Historically, MLDL has enjoyed margins in the range of 28-33% given the
higher share of MWC leasing wherein margins are higher. However, the
same has dipped to 24.1% in FY14 with lower leasing in Jaipur and delay
in approval for remaining 40 acres at Chennai. The sale of Byculla land
had boosted MLDL’s margin in FY15. However, going ahead, we expect
the EBITDA margin to improve to 28.1% in FY17E as the leasing activity
improves across World Cities.
45
39.1
40
24.9
24.1
28.1
35
30
(%)
32.8
25
424.2
312.1
388.7
20
170.2
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
241.9
(| crore)
Exhibit 7: EBITDA margins to improve…
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
EBITDA
15
10
Margin (RHS)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Page 4
Net profit to grow at 21.4% CAGR during FY15-17E…
Given the subdued performance from the residential segmental as well as
decline in EBITDA margins, MLDL’s bottomline has declined from 119.1
crore in FY12 to |100.6 crore in FY14. Going ahead, with better sales from
the residential segment coupled with high contribution from high margin
land leases translating into better EBITDA margin, we expect MLDL’s net
profit to grow at a CAGR of 21.4% during FY15-FY17E. Given the
improved profitability we expect the RoE of MLDL to inch back to 10.3%.
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Exhibit 9: Return ratios to bounce back…
171.2
108.2
116.2
100.6
18.3
20
15
115.9
(%)
(| crore)
Exhibit 8: PAT to grow at 21.4% CAGR during FY15-17E
14.7
8.0
10
5
13.8
10.9
9.9
11.0
7.6
10.3
5.8
0
FY13
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY14
FY17E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
FY15E
RoNW
FY16E
FY17E
RoCE
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Debt to equity ratio to improve from hereon...
In Q1FY15, MSDL used the proceeds from the sale of Byculla land to pare
its debt by | 195 crore. However, in Q1FY16, MLDL’s gross D/E had risen
marginally to 0.89x. Going ahead, we expect the debt to equity ratio to
improve, going ahead, on the back of expected healthy financial
performance during FY16E and FY17E.
Exhibit 10: Quarterly debt to equity ratio trend…
0.8
0.6
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.7
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1.1
1.2
0.9
(x)
(x)
1.2
1
Exhibit 11: Debt to equity to improve, going ahead…
0.7
0.6
0.5
Net D/E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
0.2
Gross D/E
0.6
0.0
FY13
FY14
FY15E
Gross D/E
FY16E
FY17E
Net D/E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Page 5
Conference Call Highlights:
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
•
MLDL signed a joint venture agreement with Sumitomo Corporation
for the North Chennai industrial park project. The project will be
undertaken in two phases with total land size of 650 acres. The project
is to be executed in 60:40 JV.
•
Under forthcoming new projects in Mumbai, for Andheri project,
approvals have been applied for plot A while Plot B is awaiting
approvals. For the Saki Naka project, approval process and zone
conversion is being initiated. The management is looking forward to
these projects in H2 FY16.
•
Under the JV with Standard Chartered Bank, | 650 crore has already
been deployed out of | 1000 crore. The JV is currently scouting for
some more land deals to deploy remaining | 350 crore. While, further
details are unclear, the deal is likely to be in Maharashtra region
•
MLDL has done a revenue booking of ~| 48 crore for World Cities in
Q1FY16. In terms of sales volume, Q1FY16 sale does not include 85
units worth | 158 crore sold in NCR and Bengaluru locations as the
sales collection has been lower than 10% of its sales value
Page 6
Outlook and valuation
Considering the parentage advantage and ramp up in the
project portfolio led by recent land acquisition, we believe
current valuations (at 0.5x potential NAV & 1.2x FY17 P/BV)
are attractive. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a
revised target price of | 590 (0.67x its potential NAV)
We have valued MLDL on the NAV methodology as this methodology
captures the true value from the long term nature of its SEZ and real
estate business. Considering the parentage advantage and ramp up in the
project portfolio led by recent land acquisition, we believe current
valuations (at 0.5x potential NAV & 1.2x FY17 P/BV) are attractive. We
maintain our BUY recommendation with a revised target price of | 590
(0.67x its potential NAV). We have now factored in the delay in pick-up in
sales volume at Jaipur SEZ and also factored in the delay in Andheri
projects in H2FY16. We have also considered a discounting rate of 14%
for the SEZ and real estate business. To value the commercial property
such as Evolve IT Park and Canopy, we have used the cap rate of 10%.
Exhibit 12: Valuation
Mn sq
ft/Acres
NAV
Value
MLD (%)
S take value
Value / share
2300
0.1
11.3
1.5
0.7
983.7
443.7
15.1
388.2
74.3
62.3
89
89
96
96
100
914.7
394.9
13.5
372.7
71.3
62.3
224.0
96.7
3.3
91.3
17.5
15.3
3000.0
0
1.0
21.8
1380.8
173.8
118.0
39.3
1049.7
74
74
74
100
1294.7
128.6
87.3
29.1
1049.7
MMR
Andheri
Thane
Kandivli
Boisar
1.9
0.7
0.6
0.1
0.5
680.5
374.0
207.7
45.8
53.1
400
100
100
100
100
Bengaluru
1.0
249.1
NCR-
1.4
Pune
NAV
Multiple
Ta rget Valuation
Value
MLD (%)
Stake value
Value / share
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
983.7
443.7
15.1
388.2
74.3
62.3
89
89
96
96
100
914.7
394.9
13.5
372.7
71.3
62.3
224
97
3
91
17
15
317.1
31.5
21.4
7.1
257.1
1.0x
1.0x
0.0x
0.0x
291.8
173.8
118.0
0.0
0.0
74
74
74
100
216.0
128.6
87.3
0.0
0.0
53
32
21
0
0
680.5
374.0
207.7
45.8
53.1
166.7
91.6
50.9
11.2
13.0
1.0x
0.8x
0.8x
1.0x
632.1
388.9
155.7
34.4
53.1
100
100
100
100
632.1
388.9
155.7
34.4
53.1
155
95
38
8
13
50
124.6
30.5
1.0x
249.1
50
124.6
31
382.3
70.9
271.0
66.4
1.0x
382.3
70.9
271.0
66
1.7
347.0
100
347.0
85.0
1.0x
347.0
100
347.0
85
Hyderabad
1.1
87.9
100
87.9
21.5
0.8x
70.3
100
70.3
17
Nagpur
1.5
112.2
70
78.5
19.2
0.8x
84.1
70
58.9
14
Alibaug
0.2
38.8
100
38.8
9.5
1.0x
38.8
100
38.8
10
Nasik
0.6
38.1
100
38.1
9.3
0.8x
28.6
100
28.6
7
Net Debt
-291.3
100
- 291.3
- 71.3
1.0x
-291.3
100
-291.3
-71
NAV Valuation
4009.3
3584.7
877.8
2410.7
590
Project
Chennai
MWC - Chennai & North Chennai SE
Canopy
MITL
MRDL
Avadi
MWC Jaipur
MWC Jaipur S EZ (in Acres)
Evolve IT park - Operational
Evolve IT park - Development
Residential Area
2816.7
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 13: Valuation
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Sales
(| cr)
705.3
1086.1
1255.8
1383.8
Growth
(%)
-4.5
54.0
15.6
10.2
EPS
(|)
24.6
65.2
28.4
41.9
Growth
(%)
-28.8
164.5
-56.4
47.7
PE
(x)
20.4
7.7
17.7
12.0
EV/ EBITDA
(x)
19.9
7.8
9.9
7.5
RoNW
(%)
8.0
18.3
7.6
10.3
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Page 7
RoCE
(%)
5.8
14.7
11.0
13.8
Company snapshot
800
700
Target Price | 590
600
500
400
300
200
Jul-17
Apr-17
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
100
Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Key events
Date
FY09
Nov-09
Oct-10
Feb-11
Nov-12
Q1FY14
Q3FY14
May-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Event
Stock corrects sharply as sales volumes plummet
Launch of Aqualily, Chennai
Buys group firm's land in Kandivali and Ghatkopar
Government imposes 18.5% MAT on SEZ developers and units in FY12 Budget, removing MAT exemptions
Mahindra Lifespaces debuts in Hyderabad with ‘Ashvita’ - a premium residential complex
The consolidated net debt to equity rises to 1.1x due to loans taken for new acquisitions of land, leading to correction in stock price
No new projects reach revenue recognition stage leading to sharp decline in revenues
Completes sale of Byculla property (MLDL was holder of development rights in the property) where its share of consideration was worth | 325 crore
Enters into affordable housing segment (named Happinest) by offering houses in the range of | 10 lakh to | 20 lakh
Mahindra Lifespace launches its second affordable housing project "Happinest" in Boisar, a suburb of Mumbai
Acquires a land parcel in MMR region for residential development having an estimated development potential of around 0.33 mn sq ft of saleable area
Launches new residential project - 'The Serenes' in Alibaug, Maharashtra making its foray into the weekend homes segment
Jun-15
MLDL forays into Bengaluru market, by announcing upcoming launch of premium residential project, Windchimes spread over 5.85 acres offering 403 units of
luxurious 3 and 4 BHK residences across 2 towers. Company looks to generate revenues of | 700 crore over next four years
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
[
Shareholding Pattern
Name
Mahindra Group
Capital Research Global Investors
Amansa Capital Pte Ltd.
First State Investment Management (UK) Limited
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.
FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited
UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd.
Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P.
Amundi Hong Kong Limited
Nanda (Arun)
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
30-Jun-15 50.8
20.9
0.0
30-Jun-15
6.9
2.8
0.0
30-Jun-15
6.1
2.5
0.0
30-Jun-15
5.5
2.3
0.0
30-Jun-15
3.1
1.3
0.0
31-Mar-15
2.5
1.0
0.0
31-May-15
1.0
0.4
0.0
30-Apr-15
0.9
0.4
0.0
31-Mar-15
0.9
0.4
0.0
30-Jun-14
0.3
0.1
0.1
(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others
Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
50.86 50.85 50.84 50.83 50.83
30.06 29.37 29.03 28.83 25.83
1.36
1.31
1.23
1.34
1.56
17.72 18.47 18.90 19.00 21.78
[
[[
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research
Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
Nanda (Arun)
UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd.
Haribhakti (Shailesh V)
Arjundas (Anita)
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Value
1.19m
0.10m
0.05m
0.02m
Shares
0.13m
0.01m
0.01m
0.00m
Sells
Investor name
Tata Asset Management Limited
FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited
Value
-1.09m
-0.13m
Shares
-0.17m
-0.02m
Page 8
Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
| Crore
(| Crore)
Net Sales
Other Income
Total Revenue
FY14
705.3
50.9
756.2
FY15E
1,086.1
61.5
1,147.6
FY16E
1,255.8
77.1
1,332.9
FY17E
1,383.8
93.3
1,477.0
Operating Expenditure
Employee Expenses
Administrative Expenses
Total Operating Expenditure
EBITDA
Interest
PBDT
Depreciation
PBT
Total Tax
PAT before MI
Minority Interest
Reported PAT
Exceptional Items
Adjusted PAT
EPS (Reported)
EPS (Adjusted)
425.7
39.9
69.4
535.0
170.2
50.2
171.0
10.1
160.9
50.9
110.0
9.4
100.6
100.6
24.6
24.6
501.3
55.0
105.6
661.9
424.2
51.4
434.3
13.2
421.0
137.8
283.3
17.1
266.2
150.0
116.2
65.2
28.4
775.0
57.8
110.9
943.7
312.1
126.4
262.8
14.1
248.7
83.6
165.0
49.1
115.9
115.9
28.4
28.4
817.9
60.7
116.4
995.0
388.7
128.0
354.1
15.1
339.0
114.8
224.2
53.0
171.2
171.2
41.9
41.9
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
| Crore
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
40.9
2.4
1,218.4
1,261.7
40.9
2.4
1,408.7
1,452.0
40.9
2.4
1,491.7
1,534.9
40.9
2.4
1,614.1
1,657.4
83.5
83.5
83.5
83.5
1,401.1
1,259.4
1,093.4
961.1
43.4
43.4
43.4
43.4
2,789.7
2,838.3
2,755.2
2,745.4
275.9
55.5
220.4
102.2
15.4
337.4
68.7
268.7
102.2
15.4
364.5
82.9
281.6
102.2
15.4
392.6
98.0
294.6
102.2
15.4
301.4
301.4
301.4
301.4
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Cash
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
1,776.4
109.0
693.5
66.7
141.8
2,787.4
474.3
162.8
2,150.3
1,850.2
149.8
774.5
19.7
212.8
3,007.1
552.5
303.9
2,150.7
1,816.9
233.0
760.1
61.0
205.6
3,076.7
650.0
372.0
2,054.7
1,783.1
278.4
720.4
113.6
225.6
3,121.0
682.8
406.4
2,031.8
Total Assets
2,789.7
2,838.3
2,755.2
2,745.4
Minority Interest
Total Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities
Assets
Total Gross Block
Less: Acc Dep
Net Block
Goodwill on Consolidation
Total CWIP
Investments
| Crore
(| Crore)
Profit after Tax
Depreciation
CF before wc changes
FY14
100.6
10.1
160.9
FY15E
266.2
13.2
330.8
FY16E
115.9
14.1
256.5
FY17E
171.2
15.1
314.3
Net Increase in CA
Net Increase in CL
Net CF from op activities
(451.4)
160.6
(129.8)
(266.7)
219.3
283.4
(28.3)
165.6
393.9
8.2
67.3
389.8
(Purchase)/Sale of FA
Other Investments
Others
Net CF from Inv Activities
(29.7)
(168.1)
23.4
(200.9)
(61.5)
1.1
(61.5)
(27.1)
4.1
(27.1)
(28.2)
(28.2)
Change in Equity Capital
Change in Loan Fund
Others
Net CF from Fin Activities
0.0
122.7
(50.3)
253.2
299.0
(50.5)
(268.9)
435.4
(226.2)
(325.5)
(141.7)
(127.3)
(309.0)
Net Cash flow
Opening cash
Closing cash
(77.6)
144.3
66.7
(47.0)
66.7
19.7
41.3
19.7
61.0
52.6
61.0
113.6
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
24.6
24.6
308.9
41.7
65.2
28.4
355.5
103.9
28.4
28.4
375.8
76.4
41.9
41.9
405.8
95.2
24.1
14.3
39.1
24.5
24.9
9.2
28.1
12.4
8.0
5.8
5.9
18.3
14.7
14.7
7.6
11.0
11.1
10.3
13.8
14.3
19.9
20.4
4.8
0.6
2.9
1.6
7.8
7.7
3.0
0.7
1.9
1.4
9.9
17.7
2.5
0.8
1.6
1.3
7.5
12.0
2.1
0.8
1.5
1.2
Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover
Debtors Turnover Ratio
Creditors Turnover Ratio
0.3
6.5
1.5
0.4
7.3
2.0
0.4
5.4
1.9
0.5
5.0
2.0
Solvency Ratios
Net Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Debt / EBITDA
1.1
4.4
1.6
8.2
0.9
3.5
1.4
3.0
0.7
3.0
1.2
3.5
0.5
2.9
1.2
2.5
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Balance sheet
(| Crore)
Liabilities
Equity Capital
ESOP
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds
Cash flow statement
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
.
Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per Share Data
EPS
EPS (Adjusted)
BV
Operating profit per share
Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
Return Ratios
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios
EV / EBITDA
P/E
EV / Net Sales
Sales / Equity
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Page 9
ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Real Estate)
EPS (|)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/B (x)
RoE (%)
CMP
M Cap
Sector / Company
(|) TP(|) Rating
(| Cr)FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E
279 333
Buy
9,157 9.7 18.0 36.4 28.8 15.5
7.7 19.0 10.0
5.2 2.0
1.7
1.4
6.9 10.8 18.2
Oberoi Realty (OBEREA)
Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)
430 590
Buy
1,757 65.2 28.4 41.9 7.7 17.7 12.0 7.8
9.9
7.5 1.4
1.3
1.2 18.3
7.6 10.3
353 400 Hold
3,462 24.3 27.3 32.5 16.0 14.2 12.0 9.1
8.3
7.1 1.6
1.5
1.4
9.7 10.2 11.3
Sobha (SOBDEV)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Page 10
RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns
ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
[email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Page 11
Disclaimer
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Page 12