Download Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau Future Water

Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
Future Water
SC 209, January 9, 2015
Gary Oberts
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Physical setting : “Mountains are the
water towers of the world” *
* NRC 2012 Report on HGH-TP Water
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67mm
(~2.6”)
per year
Crash of India Plate into Eurasian Plate
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*
*~0.4”/year; Himalayas avg. raising about 5mm (~0.2”) per year
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Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
Huang He (Yellow)
Himal. Endorheic Basin
Irrawaddy
*Brahmaputra also called Yarlung Zangbo or
Tsangpo north of Himal. Range
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Population Setting
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Current HKH-TP population ~800M, which is about 11% of the
world population (7.2B)
Additional population outside of HKH-TP fed by Huang He
(Yellow) and Yangtze in China; Mekong in SE Asia; Salween in
China, Thailand and Myanmar; Irrawaddy in Myanmar for overall
total ~ 3B or >40% of the world population
Most of population (~94%) lives below 1 km (3,280’), and only
0.1% lives above 4 km (13,000’)
Urban portion will about double by 2050 to ~> 50-64%, many of
them in poverty and in floodplain
National popls. of just B-B-I-N-P expected to increase from 1.55B
to 2.2B from 2010 to 2050 (not including SE Asia, China or Afgan.)
U.N. medium world population estimate for 2100 = 10B (range 616B)
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Population density range for seven river centers: 3504,000/ sq. km. with total metro population of ~120M
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Concern for Hydroclimate Hazards
Although climate change may be just one of many elements in a
complex system [in the HKH*], it could also amplify existing
political and security stress and push water systems over critical
thresholds. (National Academy of Sciences, 2012)
In 2010, over 20M people were impacted by monsoon-related
flooding in Pakistan …in one of the worst natural disasters in the
history of the country, as one fifth of the country’s land area
was submerged. (World Food Programme, 2011a)
As of late 2011, some one-third to one-half of the populations
of South Asian countries were reported to be food insecure due
in part to flood, drought, and complex emergencies. (WFP,
2011a)
*Hindu Kush-Himalayas
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Nature of HKH Environmental and
Social Hazards
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*Monsoon flooding/extreme events (most displacement)
*Melting snow and ice (glaciers) in mountain headwaters
*Increased population and floodplain/steep slope
development
Envir. Hazards – 1900-2010
*Drought and famine
(most deaths)
Institutional framework
Landslides and erosion
Temperature extremes
Earthquakes (incr. deaths)
Wildfire
Avalanches
Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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Monsoon Flow
SOURCE: Hodges (2006)
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Water Supply Stress
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*Global map of water-stressed basins. The water stress indicator is the ratio of
total water withdrawals to calculated in-stream flow requirements. Many basins in
the HKH region have “high” levels of water stress. SOURCE: Smakhtin (2008).
*Graphic from NRC 2012 Report
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Modeled Melt:
current-2100
- Baltoro (left
set) in Indus
Basin area
-33% and
volume -50%
- Langtang (rt.)
in Ganges
Basin area
-54% and
volume -60%
From Immerzeel et al., 2014
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Major Factors Promoting Worst Case
Glacial Loss Scenario*
• The HKH-TP is largest glacial area outside of Ant/Greenland
ice sheets, and disappearing (ex. 13-28% for Chinese and
No. Indian glaciers between 2002-2010 and 1962-2001)
• Reduced glacial surface albedo (reflectance) through melt
and dust/black carbon deposition (less solar reflectance =
more heat absorbance)
• Future (2100) projections
 +5% precip. but less snow (glacier building
slows/ceases)
 +1-2.5°C temp. (less snow, more melt)
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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Climate change:
Mean May, 1979-2007
Gautam et al. (2009b
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RE: HKH – TP Climate related info
• An increase in maximum (+1.0C) and minimum (+3.4C) daily
temperature across the Himalayas between 1988 and 2008;
temps stable in western region
• Increased regional industrialization and energy use expected
to continue
• Snow cover in the Himalayas declined by about 5 to 10
percent during the period 1990 to 2001
• Monsoon rains in east and central region have decreased
over last 50 years, but likely to increase 5% in next few
decades and with more extreme events; precipitation in
western region increased in 20th century
• HOWEVER, outlook still not clear on impact of climate change
on future water supply due to largely unpredictable nature of
the monsoon behavior
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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General Impacts of Future Climate
Change in South Asia
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Daily-to-annual temperature increases and heat waves
More drought in hot, dry years
*Changing flood character (ex., more extreme events, sea
level rise, failing infrastructure, higher population affected)
Increased economic costs associated with changing climate
Local/regional/national lack of resources and political
cooperation to address problems
More resource demand (especially water and food)
Lack of sufficient data to accurately assess the problem and
predict the future at the local scale
Current over-draft of groundwater certain to get much
greater as demand increases
Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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Projected Water Use Trends
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By 2050 Indian demands might exceed all available sources
of supply, regardless of climate change
Human water use practices will change (hopefully improve)
Dams and other infrastructure will grow and consume more
water (ex., evaporation, seepage)
The standard of living will improve (more expectations)
I-P-B use will increase dramatically, while Bhutan and Nepal
minor
Irrigation increases will depend on farming practices, gov’t
policies and climate changes; nearly impossible to predict
Municipal growth consistent with population increases
measured in 100s%, ex. +310% popl. and +340% water
demand in Indus Basin between 2000 and 2050
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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Projected Water Use Trends (cont.)
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Industrial and ag predictions very difficult, but should mimic
population like municipal did, ex. ~3x in Pakistan or 4x in
India
“Even without climate change affecting water availability in
the study area, many countries would have a significant
challenge providing enough water to meet their needs..”
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Pakistan will enter “chronic water scarcity” by 2030
India “water stressed” from now to 2050
Bang/Bhut/Nepal “sufficient” to 2050
Indus Basin most likely to have biggest problems meeting
demand and security needs (India-Pakistan-Afghanistan),
with Ganges right behind
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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Water Quality
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Sacred city of Varanasi
Photos from Nat. Geographic
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Photos from Nat. Geographic
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Some Organizations Looking at Issues
• World Resources Institute
• South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
• Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early
Warning System for Africa and Asia
• South Asia Water Initiative
• World Bank
• Asia-Pacific Network for Climate Change
• International Water Mgmt. Instit.
• India Ministry of Water Resources
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Bang. Ministry of Water Resources
Pak. Global Change Impact Study Ctr.
Nepal National Adaptation Action Prog.
Bhut. Ministry of Agric.
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Conclusions, references and more
information posted on OLLI Blog at
https://olliuci.wordpress.com/
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Major Study Conclusions*
• Changes in seasonal streamflow could have significant
impacts on the local populations by altering water
availability patterns
• Long-term significance of climate change on
availability of basin water still not clear, but
temperatures and total precipitation are rising
• Glaciers are melting on east and center with high
elevation sources (i.e., glaciers) are subject to most
impact; glaciers are stable or adding on west
• Precipitation trending toward rain, away from snow
• Local groundwater overdrafts threaten local supplies
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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Major Study Conclusions* (cont.)
• Floods threaten from highland lake outbursts and
lowland monsoons and extreme events
• There is limited penetration of adaptation principles
to lower levels of governance or support for local
water managers most at risk
• Rural and urban poor are most at risk, least likely to
adapt
• Current regional political disputes complicate
reaching any agreements on resource disputes
• Water management and hazard mitigation systems
need improvement
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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Major Study Conclusions* (cont.)
• Contribution of glacier melt to streamflow is dependent upon
season, elevation, location and other contributors (ex.
Monsoons) and looks to be less than previously thought
• Summer monsoon rains dominate the annual precipitation
cycle of the eastern Himalayas while the west is dominated by
winter snowfall with lower amounts of summer precip.
• The mechanisms and pathways of groundwater recharge and
discharge remain unclear, but current GW use exceeds
recharge in many areas
• Little change expected in the hydrograph of large rivers in the
HKH region in response to changes in climate and potential
glacial retreat over the next several decades – flooding more
possible than shortages
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
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References
•The Great Courses (Course #1712): “The World's
Greatest Geological Wonders: 36 Spectacular Sites”.
Presented by Prof. Michael Wysession, Washington
University Dept. of Geology
•National Academy of Sciences: “Himalayan Glaciers:
Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water
Security” by the National Research Council (NRC),
Committee on Himalayan Glaciers, Hydrology,
Climate Change, and Implications for Water Security,
2012
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796,000,000
Major Factors Affecting Reliability of
Tibetan Plateau Water Supply*
• Pattern of glacial retreat - spatially variable and not well
documented everywhere, but likely to increase
• Hydrologic connections
• Timing and amount/type of precipitation
• Long-term climate changes
• Role of tectonic activity
• Social changes
 Population location, number and density
 Water consumption pattern
 Source choices and contamination
• Lack of good monitoring (!!) for all of the above
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
Factors Contributing to Monsoon
Severity*
• Rainfall distribution and extreme event pattern
• Background glacial and snow meltwater volumes
• Land use and deforestation patterns
• Local flood preparedness
• Heat-atmosphere exchanges (severity)
• Local topography and infrastructure quality
*Adapted from NRC 2012 Report
Recommended Factors to Include in
Multi-national Agreements
• Address how water allocations can be made more flexible in
the face of altered timing and availability of flows
• Incorporate water quality provisions
• Develop explicit water management strategies for extreme
events, including floods and droughts
• Provide clear amendment and review processes for changing
conditions
• Create joint institutions to facilitate adaptation to climate
change, including technical committees and shared models
and data
• Address power/wealth inequities
Adapted from IPCC 2012 Report
Needs graphic separating HKH at
Sutlej River
The total glacier coverage of the HKH and the
Tibetan Plateau north to the Tien Shan is thought
to exceed 110,000 km2, with about 50,000
identifiable glaciers (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005),
but number highly variable and changing due to
CC, and no definite number is available
From Immerzeel et al., 2014
Decreased Water Stress
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