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MAS113 Introduction to Probability and Statistics – Supplementary Notes Counting Firstly, recap that for a positive integer n, n! := n × (n − 1) × (n − 2) × . . . 2 × 1. Here n! is read as n factorial. The simple observation that n! = n × (n − 1)! is very useful. To be consistent with this, when n = 1, we define 0! := 1. The multiplication principle Multiplication plays a fundamental role in counting problems. If an operation consists of several different stages, and each stage can be performed in a number of different ways, then the number of ways in which the overall operation can be performed is the product of these numbers. Case A: with repetition, order matters If we make r successive choices from a set of n elements, allowing repetition but with order mattering, the number of outcomes is nr . To see this, choose the r elements from n one at a time. The first may be chosen in n ways; the second may be chosen in n ways, and so on, the number of choices at each of the r stages always being n. By the multiplication principle, the total number of possible ways of making the overall choice is n × n × . . . n = nr . Example. The number of outcomes HHHHHH, HHHHHT, . . . , TTTTTT when a coin is tossed six times is 26 = 64. Example. The number of outcomes (6, 6, 6), (6, 6, 5),... (1, 1, 1) when a die is rolled three times is 63 = 216. 1 Case B: no repetition, order matters (Permutations) If we make r successive choices from a set of n elements, not allowing repetition and with order mattering, the number of outcomes is n(n − 1)(n − 2)...(n − r + 1) = n! . (n − r)! This number is called n Pr , the P referring to the fact that choices of this kind are called permutations of r elements from n. In particular, taking r = n, the number of ways of putting n objects in order is n!. Case C: no repetition, order doesn’t matter (Combinations) If we make r successive choices from a set of n elements, not allowing rep- etition and with order not mattering, the number of outcomes is called nr or n Cr , the C referring to the fact that choices of this kind are called combinations of r elements from n. For every combination, there must be r! permutations, as the r elements within each choice can be arranged in r! ways. Therefore n n Pr = × r! r and thus n n! . = r r!(n − r)! Example. The number of ways of choosing 5 playing cards from a pack of 52 cards is 52! 52.51.50.49.48 52 C5 = = = 52.51.5.49.4 = 2598960. 47! × 5! 5.4.3.2.1 This example illustrates the cancellations that occur in calculations of the numbers nr . We can always write n n(n − 1) . . . (n − r + 1) = r! r 2 by cancelling the factors of (n − r)! top and bottom. In particular, n n(n − 1) , = 2 2 n n(n − 1)(n − 2) = 3 6 and so on. 3