Download Presentation

Extra-terrestrial Influences
on Nature’s Risks
Brent Walker
Session Number: WBR9
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences
Phase Locks & Harmonic Resonances
•
•
After billions of years of evolution the solar system is still evolving.
Tidal forces caused by planetary gravitational influences have caused:
a) The moon to be phase locked with Earth - one revolution of the moon
occurs each orbit of Earth.
b) The orbits of the three closest satellites to Jupiter to be phase locked
and in resonance with orbital periods 1:2:4
c) Mercury to complete 3 revolutions for every two orbits of the sun.
d) Pluto’s satellite, Charon to be in geostationary orbit.
e) Harmonic or near harmonic resonances between:
a) the gas giant planets
b) the inner planets.
f) A previous harmonic relationship between the orbital periods of the
moon, Earth, Mars, Venus and Jupiter. This relationship shows up in the
second harmonic of the precision line of nodes of moon’s orbit.
.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences on Earth
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Earth is the most closely aligned planet to the sun’s equator. (.0005 deg.
inclination).
Moon’s orbit is inclined 5.145 deg. to Earth’s orbit.
Venus, Mars and Jupiter have orbit inclinations of 3.39 deg., 1.85 deg. and
1.30 deg. to the sun’s equator.
As Jupiter has a mass of 318 times Earth and low orbit inclination it has the
greatest gravitational effect on the sun.
The sun adds an extra 46% to Moon’s gravitational “pull” on Earth when in
alignment.
All the planets have (slightly) elliptical orbits.
Currently Moon’s orbit around Earth has a mean perihelion distance of
363,300km and its aphelion distance is 405,500km.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences on Earth
What is the importance of the line of nodes?
V
E
M
J
Greatest gravitational interaction with Earth occurs when Venus, Mars and Jupiter are half
way between perihelion and aphelion (line of nodes) and are in alignment with Earth and
Moon at line of nodes. This happens rarely but varying degrees of alignment occur
approximately every 30-35 years.
• These cause greater than average changes in Earth’s rotational speed.
• They change the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation hence change the frequency of El Nino and La Nina weather
phenomena.
• Changes in Earth’s rotational speed dictate the quantity of deep subsurface heat
created, hence change the ensuing frequency of earthquake and volcanic
activity.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences
Planets on the Sun
•
•
•
•
•
•
Greatest gravitational effects on the sun occur when the gas giants are in
alignment at line of nodes but with Saturn on the opposite side of the sun
to the other three. Orbit inclinations of Saturn, Uranus and Neptune are
2.49 deg., 0.77 deg. and 1.77 deg. So it is not so necessary for Uranus to be
near line of nodes as it is for Saturn and Neptune.
Alignment of gas giants at lines of nodes can only rarely happen as Neptune
has a 165 year orbit. Partial line-ups well away from their lines of nodes can
occur every few hundred years. Even partial line-ups can cause solar grand
minimums.
The depth of solar grand minimums could be related to the degree of lineup (in all three dimensions).
Jupiter’s gravity acting on the tidal bulge on the sun caused by Venus and
Earth appears to dictate the timing of most solar cycles through changes in
the rotation rate of the outermost plasma of the sun.
The 3.39 deg. orbit inclination of Venus and the distance of Jupiter to the
sun are significant influences on these cycles.
When Saturn, Uranus and Neptune add their gravitational pull to that of
Jupiter it seems that the timing of solar cycles can be disrupted.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences of the Planets on the Sun
- Ian Wilson’s Latest Research (April 23, 2012)
•
•
“Whenever the Sun's sunspot cycles were weak, as in the later parts of the 19th
century and the first 40 years of the 20th century (i.e. cycles 13 through 17),
the rotation velocity of the layer in the convective region of the Sun changed direction
PRIOR TO the date of solar sunspot maximum”.
“Whenever the Sun's sunspot cycles were strong, as in the last 60 years of the 20th
century (i.e. cycles 18 through 23), the rotation velocity of the layer in the
convective region of the Sun changed direction AFTER the date of solar sunspot
maximum”.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences
Planets on the Sun
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences
Planets on the Sun
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences
Planets on the Sun
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences
Planets on the Sun
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences
Tidal Heating & Energy Transfers
Io, Jupiter’s closest satellite, is the
most volcanic body in the solar
system because of heating caused by
gravitational tidal forces:
• Greatest influence when
Calipso and Ganymead are in
alignment with Io and
Jupiter.
• A “tidal” ridge up to 100
mtrs high ripples across Io.
• Enormous heat is generated
within Io.
• Jupiter and Io also form a dynamo causing 400,000 volts of potential
to form across Io, and 5 million amps of current to flow through a
permanent flux tube between Io and Jupiter.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Gravitational Influences
Tidal Heating & Energy Transfers
Moon was volcanic when it was
much closer to Earth.
• It currently moves away from Earth
at an average of 380 meters per
thousand years.
• Earth’s rotation slows at an average
of 17 milliseconds per thousand
years to preserve angular
momentum.
• Some lost angular momentum is
converted to heat.
• Approximately every 8 minutes a flux tube connects magnetic field lines
of the Sun and Earth and allows the transportation of plasma directly into
the ionosphere.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Sunspot Activity
Solar Influences Data Centre
Monthly Sunspot Activity - SIDC data
250
M
o
n 200
t
h
150
l
y
100
Grand Minimum
Minimum
Maximum
Maximum
Maximum
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23 24
01/1749
01/1754
01/1759
01/1764
01/1769
01/1774
01/1779
01/1784
01/1789
01/1794
01/1799
01/1804
01/1809
01/1814
01/1819
01/1824
01/1829
01/1834
01/1839
01/1844
01/1849
01/1854
01/1859
01/1864
01/1869
01/1874
01/1879
01/1884
01/1889
01/1894
01/1899
01/1904
01/1909
01/1914
01/1919
01/1924
01/1929
01/1934
01/1939
01/1944
01/1949
01/1954
01/1959
01/1964
01/1969
01/1974
01/1979
01/1984
01/1989
01/1994
01/1999
01/2004
01/2009
S
u
n
s
p
o
t
s
Maximum
Month/Year
1 Counting changed in 1954, which increases count by approximately 22%.
2 Counting now includes specks which couldn’t have been seen 18th and 19th Centuries.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Comparison of sunspot activity - Cycle 24 with others
1 Cycle 5 commenced the last little ice age – Dalton Minimum (1790-1830)
2 Cycle 14 was weak. Cycle 19 was strong.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Most solar wavelengths do not change much - but EUV does
9E+10
8E+10
7E+10
Av Monthly EUV .1-50 nm Flux
Emissions (Photons)
180.00
160.00
140.00
6E+10
Av EUV Emmissions
120.00
5E+10
Sunspots
100.00
4E+10
80.00
3E+10
60.00
2E+10
40.00
1E+10
20.00
0.00
1996/01
1996/09
1997/05
1998/01
1998/09
1999/05
2000/01
2000/09
2001/05
2002/01
2002/09
2003/05
2004/01
2004/09
2005/05
2006/01
2006/09
2007/05
2008/01
2008/09
2009/05
2010/01
2010/09
2011/05
0
1 Extreme Ultraviolet includes UVB and UVC
2 These emissions affect the temperature of the upper atmosphere and the
ozone layer.
3 Extreme weather results when these emissions remain low too long.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
The Sun’s magnetic field changes significantly
Absolute Strength of Sun's Magnetic Field*
100
Absolute Magnetic Strength
250.00
Sunspots
200.00
Micro Tesla
Monthly sunspots
80
1/05/2011
1/11/2009
1/05/2008
1/11/2006
1/05/2005
1/11/2003
1/05/2002
1/11/2000
1/05/1999
1/11/1997
1/05/1996
1/11/1994
1/05/1993
1/11/1991
1/05/1990
1/11/1988
1/05/1987
1/11/1985
0.00
1/05/1984
0
1/11/1982
50.00
1/05/1981
20
1/11/1979
100.00
1/05/1978
40
1/11/1976
150.00
1/05/1975
60
1 Normal sunspots increase the magnetic field.
2 Unipolar sunspots do not increase the magnetic field and can reduce it.
3 Many unipolar spots at present.
4 Sun’s magnetic field is frothy at edge of solar system allowing passage of
cosmic rays.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Earth’s Atmosphere
• With prolonged weak
EUV Earths upper
atmosphere cools.
• NASA reported upper
thermosphere 100
deg. cooler in 2010
• Temperature appears
to be slowly dropping
at lower levels of
atmosphere.
• The effects are
different by latitude
and between
Northern and
Southern Hemisphere.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
UK Met Office Explanation
• Low EUV output of sun appears to create mini ice-age conditions in
Northern Hemisphere.
• Low EUV output creates extreme weather events due to greater difference
between oceans and upper atmosphere.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Cosmic rays increase volcanic and low depth earthquake activity
• Cosmic rays produce radiocarbon 14 and beryllium 10 by interaction with
oxygen and nitrogen in atmosphere.
• Cosmic rays produce muons (heavy electrons). These can penetrate a few
kilometres into Earth’s crust particularly at high latitudes.
• Muons weaken the calderas of some volcanoes (incl. extinct ones).
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Inverse correlation between cosmic ray flux and global temperature
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Great (8+ mag.) Earthquake activity
•
•
•
There were 13 great earthquakes from 1958 to 2003.
There have been 13 great earthquakes from 2003 to-date.
If you assume randomness this may not be too significant. But physics suggests differently!
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/
Conclusions
• Actuarial models used to predict nature’s risks should include inputs from
extra-terrestrial factors.
• There is a wealth of data being produced in the space-age that will provide
actuaries with predictive tools to assess future changes in many of nature’s
risks.
• Actuaries should be aware that the risk of natural catastrophes is not normal
during a solar grand minimum. Actuaries should also be aware that these not
normal periods usually only occur every few hundred years but they do last
for decades. This means that the higher incidence of catastrophic events that
have occurred in 2010 and 2011 should not be regarded as a random
fluctuation but rather as the new normal for a few decades.
• Although research into long term climate change is important for mankind
and for the profession, actuaries currently face the considerable threat that
they are underestimating the natural risk frequency and severity caused by
the new solar grand minimum.
Joint IACA, IAAHS and PBSS Colloquium in Hong Kong
www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/