Download The outlook for European stocks appears to be positive. Partly due

HINDUJA BANK (SWITZERLAND) LTD
BUILDING WEALTH, ENABLING ENTERPRISE
11 February 2015
WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – Michel Menoud
The outlook for European stocks appears to
be positive. Partly due to the sharp
depreciation of the euro (and the steep drop
in oil prices), earnings data for the EMU
(especially European large caps, which
generally achieve a larger proportion of their
sales and profits outside the EMU) could turn
out to be more positive than expected in the
near future. However, it looks like much of
the money creation has already been
discounted in prices. In conclusion, we
remain positive for the region, but stocks will
remain volatile.
In Japan, stocks will continue to be supported
by the BoJ’s stock-buying program and
buying by major Japanese pension funds.
Combined with the possibility of the yen
weakening further, after climbing above
resistance at around 18,000, in the long run
we foresee the index rising towards 20,000.
Neutral stance maintained.
As far as Emerging Markets (EM) are
concerned, the stronger dollar and generally
higher interest rates will increase the cost of
debt servicing and weigh on many companies
and on economic growth. The situation is the
most unfavourable in three countries:
Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia. On the
contrary, Mexico, Colombia are profiting
from the solid US upturn.
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We would like to keep the allocation to
government bonds as a whole underweight.
The ECB’s buying program is of such a large
scale that it could create large surpluses of
money that needs to be invested and a
shortage of bonds with a high credit rating. It
therefore looks as if yields on 10-year
German bonds will remain extremely low.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC)
announced a 50bp cut in the Reserve
Requirement Ratio for banks for the first
time in three years as inflation eases. It will
ease banks' credit crunch and decreased yuan
funds from foreign exchanges.. As far as
equities are concerned, it should boost shortterm sentiment and be globally positive.
Moreover, the rate cut should trigger a
weaker CNY which is supportive of export
growth and exporter shares. Our opinion on
the Chinese stock market remain positive for
2015.
The main trend in EUR/USD continues to be
down. Over the coming months, the pair can
drop to at least 1.00 on widening policy
divergence between the Fed and the ECB.
Now that the CHF appears to have lost its
safe haven status currency and we foresee the
SNB continuing to prevent EUR/CHF from
falling below 1.05, we expect the rate to
fluctuate between 1.05 and 1.10 in the
coming weeks to months.
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ASSET CLASS REVIEW – Michel Menoud
EQUITIES & BONDS
Euro-zone
Emerging Markets
The outlook for European stocks appears to be
positive. Partly due to the sharp depreciation of
the euro (and the steep drop in oil prices),
earnings data for the EMU (especially European
large caps, which generally achieve a larger
proportion of their sales and profits outside the
EMU) could turn out to be more positive than
expected in the near future. Together with the
surplus liquidities generated by the ECB’s QE
and the dividend yield of around 2.5%, it looks as
if there is a good basis for a continuation of the
recent outperformance of European stocks in
relation to US stocks. In the course of this year,
we anticipate more tensions between the EMU
countries as a result of high unemployment and
the poor growth outlook, due to which debts are
weighing increasingly heavily. In conclusion, we
remain positive, but stocks in this region will
remain volatile.
In January Emerging Markets outperformed
Developed Markets. There was a great dispersion
in performance, with India the top performer,
closely followed by other Asia markets: the
Philippines, Viet Nam and Thailand. China, after
stellar performance in 2014, especially in Q4,
paused with just 1.4% in yuan terms. The
stronger dollar and generally higher interest rates
will increase the cost of debt servicing and weigh
on many companies and on economic growth.
The situation is the most unfavourable in three
countries: Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia.
On the contrary, Mexico, Colombia are profiting
from the solid US upturn.
Japan
Japanese stocks will continue to be supported
by the BoJ’s stock-buying program and
buying by major Japanese pension funds.
Combined with the possibility of the yen
weakening further, after climbing above
resistance at around 18,000, in the long run
we foresee the index rising towards 20,000.
In the event of a downward breakout from
the support zone at 16,300 - 16,600 (if the
climate in the financial markets should
switch to risk off in the coming months, for
example) the chart-technical picture would
weaken considerably, though (there would be
no completed top pattern) and we anticipate
the Nikkei 225 Index falling towards 14,000.
S&P 500
Nasdaq
Euro Stoxx 50
Nikkei 225
SMI
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Developed
Countries
Developing
Countries
Brazil
Russia
India
China (HK)
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Average trend for the
week
1.3%
1.8%
-1.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
Average trend for the
week
-2.2%
6.8%
-1.2%
-1.4%
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Bonds
We would like to keep the allocation to
government bonds as a whole underweight.
The ECB’s buying program is of such a large
scale that it could create large surpluses of money
that needs to be invested and a shortage of bonds
with a high credit rating. It therefore looks as if
yields on 10-year German bonds will remain
extremely low for the time being, but yields on
bonds from Italy, Spain and France will also be
suppressed. This therefore no longer justifies
underweighting government bonds from weak
countries.
Developed Countries
2-Year
Yield
10-Year
Yield
USA
UK
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
0.65%
0.41%
-0.22%
-0.11%
0.34%
0.25%
-1.05%
2.00%
1.66%
0.36%
0.68%
1.67%
1.61%
0.02%
Developing Countries
(USD)
2-Year
Yield
10-Year
Yield
Brazil
Russia
Mexico
1.74%
5.12%
1.26%
4.60%
3.45%
FOREX – Michel Menoud
The main trend in EUR/USD continues to be
down. A majority of factors convincingly points
to a pullback instead of a rally. From a technical
perspective, a substantial upward correction
remains possible. Various developments could
have triggered a rally (such as positive growth
expectations for the EMU and outperforming
European shares). However, so far this has not
happened. On balance, we expect a sideways
correction between 1.10 and 1.15 over the
coming weeks to months.
We could see a EUR/USD rally to 1.20 or higher
if the pair breaks clearly above 1.15. For
instance, if a deal is struck with Greece or due to
growing speculation on delayed Fed rate hikes.
Over the coming months or quarters, the pair can
drop to at least 1.00 on widening policy
divergence between the Fed and the ECB, plus
mounting Eurozone tensions. If a Grexit is
imminent –which we doubt – the slide to 1.00
and lower can start earlier.
EUR/USD: The wave structure since the May
high can be interpreted as a complete impulse
wave. In that case, an upward correction (to the
resistance zone of 1.18-1.20) may be about to
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start. The alternative scenario is that the
aforementioned wave will first take the pair to
support near 1.075 or 1.03. This would point to a
postponement of the rally.
EUR/CHF: Lately, the SNB is currently doing its
best to make the franc unattractive as a safe
haven (the penalty interest rate on CHF deposit
accounts is -0.75%).
There are rumours that the SNB is now aiming
for a soft floor in EUR/CHF. After abandoning
the 1.20 floor, the SNB intervened in the
currency market to weaken the franc.
If that proves insufficient, then the central bank
can consider implementing capital restrictions
and/or increasing the penalty rate. Extra measures
are not, as yet, necessary. Despite the growing
risk of a Grexit and mounting tensions
surrounding Ukraine, there has been little or no
appreciation of the Swiss currency. Not
surprisingly, the heavy penalty rate makes other
safe havens such as gold and German and US
government bonds more attractive than the Swiss
franc.
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Now that the franc appears to have lost a great
deal of its appeal as a safe haven currency and we
foresee the SNB continuing to prevent EUR/CHF
from falling below 1.05, we expect the rate to
fluctuate between 1.05 and 1.10 in the coming
weeks to months. Over the next few months, the
euro could also benefit from a slight growth rally
in Europe, while the expensive franc is more
likely to generate unpleasant surprises in
Switzerland. Finally, we ultimately envisage a
Grexit being avoided, which could lead to a
temporary relief rally in the euro.
VIEWS FROM THE EQUITY TRADING FLOOR – Ben Morton
The S&P climbed to its highest level since Dec
30th, closing at 2068. Just a percent or so short of
its all time highs, we are seeing a continuation of
the short term positive momentum from the last
week, when the S&P held at its 100 day average
and rallied to a level now forcing the bears to
start to nervously enter levels into their stop loss
algorithms. Top performers over this period were
the energy stocks, materials and financials, whilst
defensives lagged.
Since the start of the year, we have seen a lot of
volatility, as the VIX index traded mostly above
its averages, but little direction. In fact, US stocks
have traded for the last 2 months in one of the
highest ranges since 2007, marked by a record
high of 2090.
With favourable fundamentals in the US
economy, nice moves on earnings, and Greek
concerns diminished after news some sort of
agreement should be reached on February 11th
that the country will implement about 70% of
reforms already included in the current bailout
accord, the turnaround we saw has bought in
some high frequency momentum trading.
Technically, the S&P closed above a level where
previous rallies have failed, and as mentioned,
the stop losses are close to triggering. The market
may continue sideways once again, but if the
recent influx of high frequency trades pushes it
through on this occasion, we want to be holding
the right positions. We remain bullish.
SPECIAL TOPICS – Michel Menoud
China to lower the
Requirement Ratio
Bank
Reserve
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC)
announced a 50bp cut in the RRR for banks
for the first time in three years as inflation
eases. It also announced: a) an additional
50bp cut for city commercial banks and noncounty level rural commercial banks; and 2)
an additional 400bp cut for the Agriculture
Development Bank of China. One can
estimate that the latest round of cuts should
inject CNY570bn of liquidity into the
banking system. The reduced RRR rate will
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ease banks' credit crunch, caused by a high
RRR and decreased yuan funds from foreign
exchanges, as well as promote reasonable
growth in banking loans and stabilize
economic growth.
Rate cut to help ease tight liquidity and offset
weak growth and outflows
The RRR cut reflects weak growth
momentum, strong disinflationary pressure as
well as sizeable capital outflows. Dec and
Feb are the most critical months for banking
sector liquidity due to: 1) seasonally strong
demand for cash withdrawal during Chinese
New Year in Feb; and 2) the need to
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window-dress deposit books by banks for
their Dec year-end reporting.
Positive to overall sentiment, A-shares likely
more upbeat than offshore
The PBOC’s rate cut should boost short-term
sentiment, and A-shares may respond more
positively than H-shares. That said, while the
timing of the RRR cut is slightly earlier than
anticipated by consensus, market expectation
over such a cut has been rather high. In
addition, we believe there are certain
concerning signs that will make offshore
investors pause: 4Q14 recorded the biggest
quarterly capital outflow of USD91.2bn since
1998 (vs. USD96bn outflow for full-year
2014), high frequency macro data in coming
months may remain weak, and anticorruption measures in the financial sector
has more to go. Our sectorial views for 1Q15
remain
unchanged:
overweight
tech/telecom/consumer vs. underweight
banks/brokers/insurance.
We
believe
investors may also prefer quality over beta
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for now amid a rising commitment towards
easing by Beijing, though there are signs of
new risks.
A weaker CNY supportive of export growth
and exporter shares
In 2014, CNY had depreciated vs. USD
during Jan-Apr by ~3.5%, remained put
through early June, and steadily rebounded
through early November. After CNY/USD
reached a bottom of ~6.11 on 6 Nov, the
trend reversed, with CNY depreciating by
1.6% in Nov-Dec.
According to major strategists, the RRR cut
may help to stabilize the near-term CNY
outlook if growth and liquidity stabilize
subsequently. If not, the market may be
concerned over: 1) a potential shift in FX
policy towards depreciation or band
widening, and 2) further capital outflows, if
market expectations over CNY depreciation
become more widespread.
Our opinion on the Chinese stock market
remain positive for 2015.
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11 February 2015
WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTS – INDIA
SUMMARY
Key benchmark indices edged lower in the week
as key index heavyweights ICICI Bank, L&T and
Tata Motors declined on a poor set of quarterly
numbers. The government on Monday estimated
India’s economic growth this financial year at
7.4%, against 6.9% in 2013-14, as the country
changed its definition of GDP and the base year
for calculating it. Indian corporate leaders have
welcomed the landslide victory of the Aam Admi
Party in New Delhi and say the change will lead
to good governance. Indian corporate CEOs are
hoping that the new Chief Minister will abandon
and make it easier for companies to do business
in the capital city. IT shares gained tracking
better-than-expected numbers in the fourth
quarter as well as the accounting year ended
December 31 by IT Services Company Cognizant
posted last Wednesday. It gave a robust growth
forecast for the next year. Among macro
economic data, the government will release index
of industrial production (IIP) for December 2014
and the annual rate of inflation based on the
combined consumer price indices (CPI) for urban
and
rural
India
in
January
2015
INDUSTRY NEWS & TRENDS
Indian Overseas Bank, a state-run lender, reported its
second straight quarterly loss on Thursday as bad
loans surged, sending its shares down as much as
10%. UCO Bank and Allahabad Bank, two other
state-run lenders that reported quarterly results on
Thursday, also saw their bad loan ratios widening,
leading to a fall in their share prices.
Domestic passenger car sales increased 3.14% to
169,300 units in January 2015 as compared with
164,149 units in the year-ago month. Motorcycle
sales last month declined 5.85% to 868,507 units as
compared to January 2014, according to data released
by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
(SIAM). Total two-wheeler sales in January rose
1.07% to 1,327,957 units. Sales of commercial
vehicles rose 5.30% to 52,481 units.
Average
trend for
the week
Sector
Auto
BFSI
Construction
Consumer Goods
Energy
Industrial
Manufacturing
IT
Metals
Telecom
Match-making portal Matrimony.com has set the ball rolling on its much-awaited
initial public offering (IPO), expected to be the first by an Indian internet company
after Justdial's successful listing in June 2013. The Chennai-based company has signed
on Citigroup Global Markets, Deutsche Bank and Kotak Mahindra Capital as
investment bankers to the upcoming issue and is eyeing a valuation of $450-500
million.
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ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL HEADLINES
India expects its economy to grow at 7.4% in the
current fiscal year, a growth rate that rivals
China's, reflecting a strengthening recovery but
also a recent radical revision in the way the
country calculates its gross domestic product.
The country's upbeat growth figures-and the
revised calculations that underpin them-provoked
confusion and jubilation in roughly equal
measure. The figures were released Monday by
the Indian statistics ministry. The first growth
estimates produced using the new methodology
showed growth in the previous fiscal year, which
ended in March, well above what was originally
announced: 6.9% instead of 4.7%. The size of the
economy was relatively unchanged. Late last
month, the statistics ministry said it was updating
the base year used as the reference point for
measuring price changes and incorporating morecomprehensive data into its GDP calculations,
which aim to measure the country's total
economic output. The ministry also shifted its
focus to GDP computed at market price, not at
factor cost, as its main indicator of economic
expansion. Market-price GDP gauges activity by
adding up consumers' and firms' spending,
whereas factor-cost GDP tabulates producers'
costs.
Indian corporate leaders have welcomed the
landslide victory of the Aam Admi Party in New
Delhi and say the change will lead to good
governance. The CEOs are hoping the new Chief
Minister will abandon confrontationist approach
towards the corporates and make it easier for
companies to do business in the capital city.
ARC Ratings, one of the agencies that have given
India the lowest investment grade, says the
country's higher economic growth - as revealed
by the new gross domestic product (GDP)
methodology - will not alter its ratings for the
economy. The agency, however, says it has high
hopes from the Indian economy's performance.
ARC Ratings had in December assigned its first
ever rating to India, of BBB+, a notch above
junk.
CORPORATE NEWS
FMCG firm Godrej Consumer Products
(GCPL) reported 34.63% growth in its
consolidated net profit at Rs 2.63 bn for
the quarter ended December on account
of robust sales. Consolidated net sales
rose 12.47% to Rs 22.25 bn.
Auto component maker Motherson Sumi
Systems (MSSL) reported a 1.84% rise in
consolidated net profit at Rs 2.54 bn for
the third quarter ended December 31,
2014. Net sales during the quarter under
review stood at Rs 89.49 bn, up 13.42%.
Reliance Industries has claimed that
allegations that its Chairman Mukesh
Ambani has illegal Swiss bank accounts
are not true and said it operates many
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international accounts for its business
purposes which are as per the law. In a
communication to its employees, RIL
referred to the Indian Express report and
said the International Consortium of
Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) has
released
"unsubstantiated
stolen
information," which is already available
with authorities in India.
Engineering major ABB India reported
42% growth in net profit to Rs 840 mn
for December-end quarter on the back of
better project execution and cost saving
measures. Revenue growth was muted
and the company registered a mere 1.5%
growth in revenue to Rs 22.38 bn but
order inflow rose 50% to nearly Rs 25 bn
in
the
quarter
under
review.
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INDICES WEEKLY PERFORMANCE
Weekly Performance
Asian Indices
Var. %
10-02-2015
03-02-2015
S&P BSE Sensex
28,356
29,000
2.22
China Shanghai Comp
3,142
3,205
1.98
Hong Kong Hang Seng
24,528
24,555
0.11
Indonesia Jakarta Comp
5,321
5,292
0.56
Japan Nikkei 225
17,653
17,555
0.56
Malaysia KLCI Comp
1,811
1,781
1.68
Pakistan Karachi 100
34,342
34,826
1.39
Philippines PSEi
7,723
7,613
1.44
South Korea Kospi
1,936
1,952
0.82
Singapore Straits Times
3,434
3,407
0.79
Sri Lanka All Share
7,305
7,180
1.74
Thailand SET
1,595
1,603
0.47
Weekly Performance
Indian Benchmark Indices
Var. %
10-02-2015
03-02-2015
S&P BSE Sensex
28,356
29,000
2.22
CNX Nifty
8,566
8,757
2.18
S&P BSE 100
8,651
8,850
2.25
S&P BSE 200
3,536
3,622
2.37
S&P BSE Smallcap
10,899
11,427
4.62
CNX Midcap
12,617
13,102
3.71
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Weekly Performance
Nifty Gainers & Losers
Var. %
11-02-2015
Infosys
03-02-2015
2,288
2,121
7.9
Coal India
372
357
4.3
Asian Paints
843
815
3.5
ACC
1,561
1,509
3.5
Wipro
641
621
3.1
BHEL
255
297
14.0
Zee Entertainment
345
373
7.5
Tata Motors
560
603
7.2
L&T
1,607
1,722
6.7
DLF
159
170
6.5
The information in this publication was developed using data which Hinduja Bank (Switzerland) Ltd assumes to be accurate; nevertheless,
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