Download The Increasing Importance of Climate Services for the Sustainable

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The Increasing Importance of Climate Services for the Sustainable Development of
the Caribbean
By
David A. Farrell, Ph.D., P.G.
Principal
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology
Husbands, St. James
Barbados
&
Garfield Barnwell
Director
Sustainable Development
CARICOM Secretariat
Georgetown
Guyana
I. Introduction
The development and delivery of climate services in the Caribbean Community in the 21st Century
offers significant new opportunities for new interdisciplinary partnerships, innovation and
entrepreneurship, and the growth of new regional and national business opportunities that will involve
public and private sector partnerships. The growth of business opportunities to support the Region’s
adaptation planning to climate change is already being seen in the growing number of extra-regional
organizations that provide specialized services to Regional and national entities in this area as funding
opportunities to address the Region’s risks increase.
At the moment, the development and delivery of climate services is a relatively new, and in many cases,
untapped area of business. It would be wise for the Region to tap into this potential area of growth.
The national academy of sciences defined climate services as mission-oriented services driven by
societal needs to enhance economic vitality, maintain and improve environmental quality, limit and
decrease threats to life and property, and strengthen fundamental understanding of the earth.
The climatic conditions in the Caribbean are variable with the observed spatial and temporal variability
controlling socio-economic activities at the local community, national and regional levels. Key socioeconomic sectors in the Region influenced by climate include agriculture and food security, tourism,
health, energy, water resources, disaster management and marine resources management among
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others. While slow on-set climate hazards such as drought are common features of the Caribbean.
Global warming, resulting in long-term climate change, has increased the level of climate variability
observed in the Caribbean. Long-term regional climate models produced by the Caribbean Community
Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)] and
the University of the West Indies indicate that climate variability in the Caribbean region will increase
significantly in the future. These findings are consistent with conclusions reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The models indicated that this increased variability will
produce more intense dry seasons, reductions in rainfall during wet seasons, more intense rainfall and
greater variability in temperature among others. The findings provide critical information for guiding
adaptation to future long-term climate change in the region.
Unfortunately, results from long-term climate models are too general to guide annual and seasonal
planning in critical socio-economic sectors. For example, the results offer no information on whether the
next dry season will be unusually dry or uncharacteristically wet; or whether the wet season will start
earlier than usually or will last longer than usual. This level of information is critical for planning in
climate sensitive sectors and is particularly critical for climate sensitive economies as the impacts from
climate hazards can induce economic shocks that may retard and constrain the path to sustainable
development leading to countries not meeting their development goals. In many cases, recovering from
these shocks can take several years. Where multiple diverse shocks are experienced over short time
frames, the cumulative impact can be significant and socio-economic recovery may extend over
decades.
The severe drought of 2009-2010 in the Caribbean and the resulting impacts (Farrell et al. 2010), as well
as the drought of 2013, further highlight the increasing vulnerability of the Caribbean region to climate
hazards and the urgent need to develop appropriate risk-based and science informed policies and
programmes to build the region’s resilience to the increasing challenges of climate variability and
change.
II. The Global Framework for Climate Services
The recognition of the importance of climate services particularly the dissemination of climate
information to the public or specific users across all spatial and temporal scales to support sustainable
development in the 21st Century in all countries, especially the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) recognized as the most vulnerable group of countries to climate
hazards was an important realization of the Third World Climate Conference (WCC-3) held in Geneva,
Switzerland in 2009. This Conference coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
championed the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), was a key outcome of WCC-3. The
framework addresses the growing global need for the development and provision of relevant sciencebased climate information and the platform for the development of climate risk management to
strengthen adaptation methodologies for LDCs and SIDS. This new initiative, represents a paradigm shift
from the WMO and has received overwhelming endorsement from other UN Agencies including FAO,
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UNDP, ISDR, WHO and other global institutions such as the World Bank. To highlight the significance of
this initiative, the WMO, for the first time in its more than 50-year history, held an Extra-Ordinary
Congress (EOC) in October 2012 to agree on the governance and funding mechanisms to guide the
implementation the GFCS. At the EOC, it was agreed that the GFCS will be managed by an,,
Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services. The GFCS aims to:

Enhance understanding of and response to climate risks and opportunities associated with
climate variability and change;

Improve climate information for the development and more effective management of natural
resources, protection of livelihoods and property;

Promote user-defined climate and climate-relevant information at global, regional, national,
local and sectoral levels in a timely, understandable and easily accessible manner;

Promote the confident and frequent use of climate and climate-relevant information for
economic efficiency, social well-being and development of policies for sustainable development.
The 4 main components of the GFCS are: (i) the User Interaction Mechanism; (ii) the World Climate
Services System; (iii) Climate Research; and (iv) Climate Observations.

Climate Research
o

Within the Caribbean context, climate research has been an under-funded slow paced
activity with CIMH, UWI and more recently CCCCC being involved in most of the work
through their various regional and international partnerships. In the 21st Century more
financial resources will have to be invested to support climate research and climate
impacts in the region if climate related risks at national and regional levels are to be
reduced. While not explicitly referencing climate risks in Jamaica, the Standard and Poor
advisory to investors to be circumspect on that country's debt highlight that "... Our
ratings on Jamaica reflect its high general government debt and interest rate burden;
limited fiscal, monetary and external flexibility; lower growth prospects; and
vulnerability to natural disasters due to its location in the hurricane belt ..." [Jamaica
Gleaner, October 14, 2012]. This reflects the growing attention being to paid to climatic
factors and risks and the recognition of their impact on national economies. The
increasing need for the development of appropriate services through interdisciplinary
climate and related research on mitigation and adaptation programmes for climate
change policy in the Caribbean is necessary. The GFCS offers opportunity for funding
to support regional climate research and development activities and the region need to
strengthen its capacity to access the available support
Climate Observations
o
The Caribbean region has a history of climate monitoring primarily in the area of rainfall
and temperature that dates in some cases more than 150 years ago. An important
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responsibility of the CIMH, that is included in the Articles establishing the Caribbean
Meteorological Organization (CMO) in 1973, is the “processing and dissemination of
climatological data” from CMO Member States. The National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the Member States are the primary contributors to the
CIMH climate database, however, other private, national and regional entities are
encouraged, sometimes without success, to contribute their data to the database. This
lack of willingness to contribute reflects in some cases the increasing commercial value
of climate data and necessitates the need to develop national policies on climate data
distribution or reaffirmation of existing policies that guide the distribution and sharing
of climate data. This is particularly required to support cases where data from the region
contributes to global datasets (e.g., the Global Climate Observing System) and products
that provide significant regional benefit.
o

Due primarily to limited funding, there is a spatial and temporal sparsity of climate data
in the region. In recent years, CCCCC and CIMH have procured assistance to refurbish
and expand the existing national and regional weather and climate observation stations
across the region. Bearing in mind that 30 years of near continuous recordings are
required for climate analyses, a long-term maintenance and re-investment strategy is
required to sustain the weather and climate observation networks across the region.
The sustainability of these networks will require standardization of observation
networks and continuous investment in capacity development and sensors. The CIMH
and the CCCCC remain committed to working with partners to develop sustainability
plans for existing and planned networks. Under the GFCS funding will be available to
support enhanced national and regional climate observation networks and will form an
important part of the region's climate observation network sustainability plan.
User Interaction Mechanism
o
It is recognized globally, and within the Caribbean region, that the working relationship
between the providers of climate information and the users of such information lacks
the effectiveness and efficiency required to generate transformational change. This
situation often leads to information supply and demand mis-matches that can at times
cause significant human suffering and catastrophic financial losses for local communities
and national governments. The User Interface Mechanism attempts to bridge this divide
leading to greater coherence between the information and services required and the
information and services provided. Design and implementation of the Mechanism is
expected to increase the demand for and greater utilization of climate services as well
as improve the quality of such services through appropriate feedback mechanisms.
o
Under the Caribbean Agro-Meteorological Initiative (CAMI) described in the following
section, an attempt has been made to implement a User Interaction Mechanism, driven
independent of the GFCS, between the farming communities and the suppliers of
climate information. The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), also described in
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the following section, provides another modality by which the User Interaction
Mechanism can be achieved. It is expected that within the region a number of unique
user/service provider Mechanisms will evolve that will be determined by the nature of
the service required. It is expected that the movement of products and services
through appropriately designed User Interaction Mechanisms will be a area of
increasing innovation and commercial value in the 21st Century.

World Climate Services System
o
The evolution and growth of NMHSs in the Caribbean and their ability to issue forecasts
that have been improving over time has been due to globally accepted mechanisms that
support production, exchange and dissemination of quality information at global,
regional and national levels. The World Climate Services System adopts this framework
by recognizing that the production of climate services at all spatial-temporal scales will
depend on a network of global (Global Production Centres), regional (Regional Climate
Centres) and national (National Climate Centres) institutions that produce and
disseminate climate and related information. Implementation of the World Climate
Services System will, to the extent possible, exploit and extend existing structures and
mechanisms in a cost-effective manner. Caribbean support for the implementation of
the World Climate Services System requires two clear actions:
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Establishment of an Operational Regional Climate Centre in the Caribbean

Under the GFCS, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) are regional institutions with
the necessary capacity and mandate to develop high-quality regional scale
climate products that incorporate regional information at the appropriate
spatial and temporal scales. Using appropriate tools, RCCs are expected to
generate regional and sub-regional scale specialized products from global
products for the use of National Climate Centres and other regional users.
Specific actions of RCCs include:

Provision of down-scaled products and assessment of relevant regional
climate prediction products to identify potential regional hazards;

Monitor regional climate variability and extremes for the Caribbean;

Implement and conduct Climate Watches for the Caribbean region.
As discussed in the following section many of these activities are currently being
carried out for the CARICOM Member States solely by CIMH and, as a result,
WMO, with the support of the CMO and the WMO Regional Association IV
Management Group, approved CIMH's request to enter the Demonstration
Phase to become the WMO RCC for the Caribbean. This makes CIMH the first
RCC to be established in North America, Central America and the Caribbean
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region. Because CIMH is already executing many of the actions of an RCC, the
decision to host the RCC at CIMH represents a low cost high return opportunity
for the Caribbean region. The RCC designation does not conflict with the
regional role of CCCCC whose primary focus is to assist CARICOM Member
States with their adaptation to long-term climate change. Instead the role of the
RCC is expected to complement the activities of the CCCCC through the
provision of specific climate services and products, including the exchange of
climate data.
o
Establishment of National Climate Centres

The development of operational Climate Centres at the national level is a key
component of the GFCS. The Centres will interface with a myriad of national
end-users through the User Interface Mechanism to develop user-driven
products and services and receipt of feedback from such end-users. Under the
GFCS, funding will be made available to support the establishment and
sustainable operations of National Climate Services. While not an absolute
requirement, the GFCS envisions that NMHSs will play significant roles in
operational Climate Centres at the national level. In countries that do not have
NMHSs alternative arrangements will have be identified. It is expected that
operational Climate Centres at the national level will among other things:

Establish strong links to Regional Climate Centres and Global Production
Centres and support product and data exchanges;

Create climate products and services for national users;

Monitor climate and provide climate watches at the national level.
The interaction between operational Regional and National Climate Centres in
the Caribbean will require free exchange of products, data and services and a
close collaborative relationship. As a result, national and regional policies on
sharing climate data, products and resources will have to be reaffirmed and
enforced.
Over the next ten years, the GFCS will focus on the delivery of climate services to address the following
critical climate sensitive sectors: (i) agriculture and food security; (ii) health; (iii) disaster risk
reduction; and (iv) water resources management. Other climate sensitive socio-economic sectors will
be considered after 10 years. However, it is extremely important that LDCs and SIDS policy makers play
an active role and stay engaged in the governance arrangements being developed to implement the
GFCS.
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III. The Current State of Climate Services and Delivery in the Caribbean
A limited range of climate services is currently available in the Caribbean. However, there is growing
interest and demand for such services in critical sectors such as water resources management,
agriculture and food security, energy, health, disaster risk reduction, tourism and transportation. In
addition to these core areas, there is expressed interest in the development of climate services to
support ecosystem services. It is expected that during the first half of the 21st Century, will be
characterized by a significant growth in the range of climate services that will be demanded by the
public sector, the private sector and civil society.
The CIMH, through its Applied Meteorology and Climatology Section (AMCS), and the University of the
West Indies (UWI) through its Mona Climate Studies Group (MCSG) have been the lead CARICOM
Institutions involved in research and development leading to the production of operational climate
services at seasonal and annual time scales.

The Caribbean Precipitation Outlook:
o

The CIMH developed and publishes a 3-month Precipitation Outlook for the Caribbean.
The Outlook, which provides 3-month rainfall predictions for the region, is based on
regional climate analyses driven by ground-based climate observation at the national
level and the outputs of global numerical climate models. A descriptive Outlook on both
rainfall and temperature are also provided for up to six month in advance. The accuracy
of the prediction is therefore, in part, controlled by the long-term performance and
sustainability of regional and national climate observation networks. The product has
been embraced by a steadily growing user community that includes water resources
managers and agriculturalists in several CARICOM Member States who use the product
to plan their seasonal and sub-seasonal activities. The Outlook provided valuable
insights into the evolution of the 2009-2010 and 2012-2013 droughts in the Caribbean.
Efforts are underway at CIMH to reformulate the product to tailor the information to
other climate sensitive sectors including disaster risk reduction, health, energy, public
works and drainage where the use of the information is expected to reduce socioeconomic losses, improve seasonal planning and increase productivity and efficiency. In
the cases of disaster risk reduction, public works and drainage, having seasonal rainfall
forecasts informs scenario development and planning leading to improved and efficient
resource management and utilization. In the health sector, the forecasts allows the
sector to develop scenarios regarding the likelihood of specific vector borne diseases
emerging in response to rainfall (or lack of rainfall) to determine in advance the
appropriate resources to address the potential impact.
The Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network:
o
The CDPMN emerged as one of the products from a 6-year (2006-2012) partnership
with the McGill University under the Caribbean Water Initiative (CARIWIN) that piloted
strategies for water resources management at the national and community levels in
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Guyana, Grenada and Jamaica. The CDPMN provides a robust approach for monitoring
and forecasting rainfall across the region and provides an approach independent of the
Caribbean Precipitation Outlook to assess the potential for either seasonal drought or
significant rainfall. The product was brought into operation in late 2009 one year ahead
of schedule, and after the on-set of the extreme drought of 2009-2010, but quickly
became the primary tool in the region that was used to issue critical information on the
intensity and duration of the drought to decision-makers in climate sensitive national
and regional sectors. This product established CIMH as the primary drought monitoring
and forecasting Centre in the region. In combination with the precipitation outlook,
outputs from the CDPMN further predicted the period of above average rainfall that
followed the drought of 2009-2010 that likely exacerbated soil moisture conditions
leading increased flooding and landslides across the region. In this sense the tool is
becoming an important instrument to support seasonal landslide and flood forecasting.
The tool also successfully predicted conditions leading up to the regional drought of
2013. The tool was instrumental in forecasting the drought of 2013 that impacted many
CARICOM Member States. Both the CDPMN and the Caribbean Precipitation Outlook
address the requests of the CARICOM Heads of Government for Regional Institutions to
lead the Region's adaptation to the extreme conditions following the 2009-2010
drought.

Dengue Forecasting:
o

The growing occurrence of Dengue Fever has been a major concern for CARICOM
Member States as the increasing number cases imposes significantly on the limited
resources available to the health care system of Member States and has the potential to
reduce national productivity. During the last decade, the health sector of Jamaica has
been the primary beneficiary of a Dengue Fever early warning and alerting system
developed by the Mona Climate Studies Group at the UWI Mona Campus that is based
on an identified strong correlation between the occurrences of Dengue Fever and El
Niño events [http://Jamaicagleaner.com/gleaner/20071028/lead/lead8.html and
http://alaccproject.org/meetings/meetings.html (SIS06)]. The potential benefits of this
early warning and alerting system cannot be over stated given the reports from the PanAmerican Health Organization (PAHO) in 2013 that indicate significantly declining birth
rates in the Caribbean and an increasing percent of elderly persons in the region. This
group -along with infants - is particularly vulnerable to the ravages of climate sensitive
vector borne diseases such as Dengue Fever.
Delivery of Climate Services for Agriculture and Food Security:
o
In 2009, the CIMH with the assistance of the WMO, was awarded a grant from the ACPEU to execute the Caribbean Agro-Meteorological Initiative (CAMI)
[http://63.175.159.26/~cimh/cami]. This pilot 3-year programme was designed to
enhance and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean through
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improved dissemination and application of weather and climate information using an
integrated and coordinated approach. The project assisted the farming community in
the region by providing through the network of Regional Institutions (CIMH and CARDI),
NMHSs and Agricultural Services:

Seasonal forecast for agriculture (start, length and amount of rainfall);

Effective pest and disease forecasting systems for improved on-farm
management and decision-making;

User friendly weather and climate information newsletters that are widely
distributed to a large community of stakeholders across the region
[http://63.175.159.26/~cimh/cami/regional_bulletin.html
and
http://63.175.159.26/~cimh/cami/national_bulletin.html], some of which are
also featured on the Global website of the World Agrometeorology Information
System (WAMIS – www.wamis.org);


o

The Antigua Bulletin is particularly interesting as it provides an
international weather and crop summary as well as the highlights of the
US Agricultural Summary. This information is critical for procuring food
at reasonable prices and is therefore essential for supporting Antigua's
food security.
Forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to
promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate
information to obtain feedback to improve product content and utilization.
A key outcome of the project was the development of a policy brief for regional decision
makers in agriculture and food security entitled "Tapping into the Potential of Weather
and Climate Services: a New Asset for Caribbean Food Security"
[http://63.175.159.26/~cimh/cami/files/PolicyBrief-Final.pdf]. The policy brief provides
a set of recommendations for national governments and stakeholders on ways to
reduce agricultural risks due weather and climate threats. Another important output
was a documentary DVD with two versions – one for television and the other of shorter
duration to be used at workshops/conferences/seminars.
Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF)
o
The overarching goal of the Regional Climate Outlook Forums is to produce and
disseminate a regional outlook of the state of the climate for the upcoming season that
will inform planning and decision-making in climate sensitive socio-economic sectors. As
such the forums bring together meteorologists, climatologists and users of climate
information to risk inform upcoming seasonal plans and to share feedback leading to
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improved product and service delivery. In 2010, the CIMH, working in conjunction with
regional and international partners and a diverse regional community of climate
information users, took a leadership role in re-establishing the Climate Outlook Forum
for the Caribbean. Since its re-establishment, two CariCOFs have been held. The intent is
to have CariCOFs twice a year (pre-rainy season and pre-dry season) at various locations
around the region. Feedback from the forums has been extremely positive and regional
and international participation in the forums has grown significantly. The biggest
impediment limiting participation in the forums is the cost of bringing the providers and
users of seasonal climate information together. While the use of online forums provides
a partial solution to this challenge, increased funding from national, regional and
international partners is required to maximize the benefits afforded by CariCOF face-toface meetings.
While the summary of climate services provided is not exhaustive, it highlights the value of the existing
climate services and products in the region to sustainable development. The summary is particularly
important as it shows the level of integration across national and regional entities required to deliver
effective climate services for regional, national and community stakeholders. Finally, the summary
indicates that more climate services and products will need to be developed to address the broad needs
of the various climate sensitive sectors in the region if national and regional development is to be
sustained in the future.
Benefits of GFCS for CARICOM Member States
The GFCS offers significant benefits to the Caribbean as the region adapts its systems and process to
address increasing hazards, vulnerabilities and development risks associated with the increasing climate
variability and climate change. Benefits to be realized include:

Greater interaction at all levels between all stakeholders to support the development of more
targeted user-driven and user-friendly products and services to key climate sensitive sectors to
improve decision-making in an effort to (i) reduce climate related risks thereby reducing sectoral
losses and (ii) improved productivity from better use of available information;

Strengthening national institutions, and in particular NMHSs, to identify, develop and deliver
targeted user-driven and user-friendly climate services through investments to support:
o
Human capacity development and increased access to know-how through scholarships,
technical exchanges, training workshops and north-south partnerships;
o
Increased technology transfers to enhance climate monitoring at the national scale
(including refurbishment and expansion of national observation networks), increased
access to climate data and related information from a range of regional and
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international sources and increased access to technology to support climate forecasting
at the national level.

Strengthening regional institutions, and in particular the Regional Climate Centre, to identify,
develop and deliver targeted user-driven and user-friendly climate services to National Climate
Centres, Regional Institutions, donor institutions and global institutions (including development
banks and Non-Governmental Organizations) through appropriate investments to support:
o
Human capacity development and increased access to know-how through scholarships,
technical exchanges, training workshops and north-south partnerships;
o
Increasing the range of climate products and services delivered to support regional
decision-making and policy related to adaptation to current and future climate hazards
in the region;
o
Technology transfers to enhance climate monitoring at the national scale (including
refurbishment and expansion of national observation networks), increased access to
climate data and related information from a range of regional and international sources
and increased access to technology to support regional sub-seasonal, seasonal, annual
and decadal climate forecasting at the regional level.
The benefits of the GFCS to the Caribbean region will be maximized if it is integrated into National
Development Plans and Policies and regional programmes. From the regional perspective, the CARICOM
Heads of Government endorsed the Liliendaal Declaration on Climate Change and Development in 2009
that defines the national and international position of CARICOM Member States on the issue of longterm climate change in the 21st Century noting that a number of declarations made in the document
can only be achieved by transformational change. Two key aspects of the Declaration that can be
addressed by the GFCS are:

Adaptation and capacity building must be prioritized and a formal and well financed framework
established within and outside the UNFCCC to address the immediate and urgent, as well as long
term, adaptation needs of vulnerable countries, particularly Small island Developing States and
the Least Developing Countries.

The need for financial support to SIDS to enhance their capacities to respond to the challenges
brought on by climate change and to access the technologies that will be required to undertake
needed mitigation actions and to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.
In 2012, the CARICOM Heads of Government approved the Implementation Plan for the 'Regional
Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change' (the Regional Framework) for the
period 2011-2021 that addresses the Region's approach for coping with long-term climate change as
outlined in the 2009 Liliendaal Declaration on Climate Change and Development. The Implementation
Plan:
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1. Seeks to guide the identification and prioritization of actions by regional and national
stakeholders under each strategic element and goal area of the Regional Framework through
the use of risk management approaches to decision making;
2. Considers responsibilities and functional co-operation between regional organizations and
national governments;
3. Recognizes that there are existing significant resource and capacity challenges that hold back
the Region's sustainable development and growth and processes known as the 'three-ones' to
assist in resource mobilization and co-ordination of actions;
4. Proposes a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework.
It is clear that while the GFCS is focused on the delivery of climate services which is narrower that the
Liliendaal Declaration on Climate Change and Development and the Implementation Plan, it informs
many of their objectives by (i) furthering our knowledge of the Region’s climate across all temporal and
spatial scales through technology transfers and capacity development which are essential elements of
the region’s resource mobilization strategy, (ii) delivering targeted climate services and products to
critical climate sensitive socio-economic sectors to support risk informing decision-making in those
sectors and (iii) facilitating stronger levels of functional cooperation between regional organizations and
national governments which inform and support the adaptation and mitigation processes outlined in
both documents. Exploiting the synergies between these regional initiatives and the GFCS is expected to
address the fundamental challenges the Region faces, and will continue to face in the 21st Century, in
the areas of availability of resources, technology transfer and human capacity development that are
critical to resilience building and ultimately the sustainable development of the Caribbean Region.