Download Predicted Regional Consequences of climate change

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Brazil
Environmental Agency Structure
Brazil’s environmental negotiations are conducted through the General Coordination of Global
Climate Change of the Ministry of Science and Technology. Specifically, General Coordinator
Jose Domingos Gonzales Miguez, along with President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, identifies
Brazil’s environmental policies.
The General Coordination of Global Climate Change is responsible for giving assistance to
Ministry of Science and Technology on global change matters, following negotiation meetings of
the Framework Convention on Climate Change, following the scientific work of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and coordinating the implementation of the
Framework in Brazil. This information can be found at:
http://ftp.mct.gov.br/clima/ingles/fconosco/quem.htm
Discussion of Global Warming Efforts
With its vast natural resources and large population, Brazil is well positioned to be a
world leader in the twenty first century. It is a country of nearly 190 million people,i 82% of
whom live in urban areas.ii Brazil’s economy ranks among the ten largest in the world,iii growing
in the past four years at an average rate of 3.6%.iv Its major exports include transport equipment
and parts, metallurgical products, chemical products, and soybeans.v Its main agricultural
products are coffee, soybeans, wheat, rice, corn, cocoa, citrus, beef, and sugarcane.vi Brazil is
one of the world’s largest exporters of sugar, and one of the only nations that can efficiently
produce ethanol from sugarcane.vii Unlike many of the world’s largest nations, Brazil produces
much of its energy from renewable sources. Approximately 40% of Brazil’s power matrix is
supplied from renewable sources, and 80% of the country’s electricity comes from hydroelectric
power plants.viii Consequently, in 2005, Brazil emitted 1.76 tons of carbon dioxide per capita, a
comparatively low amount when compared to the United States’19.73 tons.ix
Brazil is currently focused on sustainable development and poverty elimination. Brazilian
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration is fiscally conservative, but supports both
strong poverty alleviation programs and, increasingly, climate change mitigation measures.x
Since the Kyoto negotiations, the administration has become more open to aggressive climate
change measures, in light of worrying predictions for the climate future of Latin America, and
especially after it weathered the first hurricane ever in southern Brazil.xi
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Consequences of Climate Change for the Region and the Country
For Latin Americans, the consequences of climate change may include everything from
droughts in the Amazon to vanishing glaciers in Colombia.xii With its diverse ecosystems, Brazil
itself faces a myriad of climate-related challenges. Areas of the country now blanketed by forest
will be savannah within decades. Semi-arid northeastern cities, where development levels are
low, will likely face droughts lasting as long as 10 years.xiii Increasing temperatures will facilitate
the spread of infectious diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever.xiv Across the country, energy
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production will likely fall as high winds become less frequent, warmer temperatures reduce
production of oil-bearing crops, and irregular rainfall endangers hydroelectric power plants.xv
Because the Brazilian government has plans for a new system of dams and hydroelectric plants
along the Amazon, Brazil is eager to take all measures possible to ensure that these dams have
enough water to provide power to millions of citizens.xvi
Most importantly, Brazil’s Amazon rainforests are dwindling. Massive loss of rainforests
will significantly decrease both biodiversity and the amount of carbon dioxide that the planet is
able to absorb.xvii Changing weather patterns and deforestation are destroying 1% of the forest
each year.xviii One climate model used in the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the Amazon rainforest will almost completely disappear
between 2050 and 2100.xix Although this prediction is not common to all the models used in the
IPCC report, it does illustrate the urgency with which Brazil must treat climate change mitigation
measures.
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Brazilian Programs Addressing Climate Change
Although Brazil does not yet have an overarching climate change regulatory scheme, xx
the country does have administrators in place to address the problem. The General Coordination
of Global Climate Change assists the Ministry of Science and Technology in governing global
change matters, manages disclosure of IPCC reports to Brazilian experts, and coordinates
implementation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Brazil.xxi Through this
office and other departments, Brazil has implemented a slate of domestic climate change
mitigation programs, even taking initiatives without prompting from international commitments.
The Brazilian government began supporting ethanol production in the 1970’s. The
country now has some of the highest sugarcane and ethanol production rates in the world.xxii
Brazil continues to ensure that the ethanol production process does not rob native peoples of
their land, or reduce food production.xxiii The Brazilian government also supports the use of
biodiesel,xxiv and has a growing fleet of Flex Fuel vehicles, cars that can run on any blend of
ethanol and gasoline. Outside the transportation industry, in 2008, Brazil launched a program
where sixteen corporations will participate in a voluntary climate registry and receive training on
greenhouse gas accounting and management.xxv
Even more importantly, Brazil is working to address its largest climate change problem:
deforestation. In 1994, approximately 75% of Brazil’s emissions corresponded to “conversion of
forests to other uses, especially agriculture and ranching.”xxvi President Lula da Silva’s
government has decreased deforestation by establishing protected zones in areas where forest
clearing is most intensivexxvii and increasing the government’s budget for preventing illegal
deforestation, among other programs.xxviii Despite these efforts, Brazil acknowledges that
deforestation in the Amazon remains a major threat, especially because a drop in crop prices
could motivate farmers to clear more land to make way for increased crop production.xxix
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Brazil’s Negotiating Positions
At Kyoto, Brazil held firm to the notion that developed countries were mainly responsible
for climate change and should reduce their emissions “by an amount appropriate to avoid the
grave consequences of climate change.”xxx Brazil ratified the Kyoto Protocol on August 23,
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2002,xxxi but as a developing country, was not required to take specific actions to reduce
emissions.xxxii During the Kyoto negotiations, the Brazilian delegation proposed establishing
differentiated emission reduction targets, according to each country’s historical contribution to
global warming.xxxiii The differentiated emissions targets in the Draft Proposal have the correct
spirit, but Brazil will require further discussion of the exact emissions targets set for all parties
before signing on. Brazil also floated a proposal at the Kyoto negotiations that became the Clean
Development Mechanism.xxxiv Since Kyoto, Brazil has been working above and beyond its
Kyoto commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, implementing over 100 CDM
projects.xxxv As a fervent supporter of renewable energy, Brazil encourages other nations to adopt
renewable energy technology and supports the continuation of the CDM.xxxvi
For future negotiations, President Lula da Silva maintains that “[e]veryone knows that the
rich countries are responsible for 60 percent of the gas emissions, and therefore need to assume
their responsibilities…We don’t accept the idea that the emerging nations are the ones who have
to make sacrifices, because poverty itself is already a sacrifice.”xxxvii Brazil therefore agrees that
Annex 1 nations should bear the brunt of emissions reductions, but is unwilling to commit
wholeheartedly to the blanket, uniform commitment for all non-Annex 1 parties in Article 3 of
the Draft Proposal without further discussion.
Brazil may support the emission trading scheme of Article 4 of the Draft Proposal in
theory, but must stress that any scheme must not allow Annex 1 nations to escape commitments
to substantially reduce their domestic emissions. Brazil is prepared to discuss implementing
market-based programs that would help Brazilians curb carbon emissions resulting from
deforestation, with the caveat that Brazil will not accept foreign trespasses on its governmental
authority in the Amazon. xxxviii Brazil also supports measures that facilitate technology transfers
between developed and developing nations, above and beyond transfers on the open market.xxxix
Such transfers, and any other CDM type projects, must be undertaken with clean development as
a primary goal, not primarily to line the pockets of industries in developed countries.xl Lastly,
Article 4’s limited application to carbon dioxide and no other greenhouse gas might refocus
emissions reductions projects on their main goal, carbon reduction, but any agreement must
certainly include provisions on the remaining greenhouse gasses.
Articles 5 and 6 of the Draft Proposal require discussion. In principle, Brazil supports a
robust adaptation fund. Acknowledging that small island nations are likely most vulnerable to
many of the effects of climate change, a fair mechanism must be created to ensure that
vulnerable areas of non-island states receive due consideration in dispersing adaptation funds.
Item 2 of Article 6 is unacceptable as written. Many developing nations cannot afford to flatly
ban fuel imports from major exporters. If the United States remains on the sidelines of these
agreements, this Item would do very little to penalize those most responsible for climate change.
Finally, if this Item does remain in the Proposal, “other energy intensive goods” must be
explicitly defined.
Stressing the importance of swift action to prevent a worsening of climate change, Brazil
urges parties to these discussions to carefully consider any distribution of responsibility for
mitigating climate change, and to bear in mind the particular dangers that climate change will
pose to the world’s poor.
i
The Economist Intelligence Unit, Factsheet, THE ECONOMIST, Oct. 29, 2008,
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http://www.economist.com/countries/Brazil/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-FactSheet.
ii
MINISTRIES OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, ENVIRONMENT, MINES AND ENERGY &
DEVELOPMENT, INDUSTRY AND FOREIGN TRADE, BRAZIL’S CONTRIBUTION TO PREVENT CLIMATE CHANGE 13
(2007), available at http://www.mct.gov.br/upd_blob/0024/24870.pdf.
iii
Id. at 13.
iv
The Economist Intelligence Unit, supra note i.
v
Id.
vi
Central Intelligence Agency: The World Factbook, Brazil, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/br.html#Govt (last visited Jan. 12, 2009).
vii
CHRISTINE BOLLING & NYDIA R. SUAREZ, USDA SPECIAL REPORT: THE BRAZILIAN SUGAR INDUSTRY: RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS (2001) available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/Brazil/braziliansugar.pdf.
viii
MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS ET AL., supra note ii, at 13.
ix
Id. at 18.
x
The Economist Intelligence Unit, supra note i.
xi
Larry Rohter, Brazil, Alarmed, Reconsiders Policy on Climate Change, N.Y.TIMES, July 31, 2007, available at
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/31/world/americas/31amazon.html?_r=1.
xii Andrew Carmona, A Conversation on Conservation: Contemplating the Impact of Climate Change in the Latin
America-Caribbean Region, Aug. 16, 2007,
http://www.coha.org/2007/08/a-conversation-on-conservation-contemplating-the-impact-of-climate-change-in-thelatin-america-caribbean-region/.
xiii
Carlos Tautz, Climate Change: Brazil Has No National Policy, INTERPRESSSERVICE NEWS AGENCY, Feb. 13,
2008, http://ipsnews.net/print.asp?idnews=36555.
xiv
Carmona, supra note xii.
xv
Mario Osava, Brazil: Climate Change Will Weaken Renewable Energy Sources, INTERPRESSSERVICE NEWS
AGENCY, June 3, 2008, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=42642.
xvi
Rohter, supra note xi.
xvii
Tautz, supra note xiii.
xviii
Carmona, supra note xii.
xix
Phil P. Harris, Chris Huntingford & Peter M. Cox, Amazon Basin Climate Under Global Warming: the Role of
the Sea Surface Temperature, 363 PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON 1753 (2008).
xx
Tautz, supra note xiii.
xxi
General Coordination of Global Climate Change: Who We Are,
http://ftp.mct.gov.br/clima/ingles/fconosco/quem.htm (last visited Jan. 12, 2009).
xxii
MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS ET AL., supra note ii, at 23.
xxiii
Dan Shepard, Poznan Perspective, UN Climate Change Conference,
http://www.un.org/climatechange/blog/2008/131208.shtml (last visited Jan. 13, 2009).
xxiv
MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS ET AL., supra note ii, at 25.
xxv
Taryn Fransen, Brazil launches its GHG Protocol Program, May 12, 2008,
http://www.wri.org/stories/2008/05/brazil-launches-its-ghg-protocol-program.
xxvi
MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS ET AL., supra note ii, at 57.
xxvii
Tautz, supra note xiii.
xxviii
MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS ET AL., supra note ii, at 59-71.
xxix
Tautz, supra note xiii.
xxx
Statement by President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Federative Republic of Brazil,
http://ftp.mct.gov.br/clima/ingles/quioto/presiden.htm (last visited January 12, 2009).
xxxi
Kyoto Protocol Status of Ratification, May 13, 2008, http://www.mct.gov.br/upd_blob/0024/24927.pdf.
xxxii
Press Release, Brazilian Embassy, Climate Change (June 17, 2007)
http://www.brasilemb.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=64&Itemid=110.
xxxiii
Id.
xxxiv
UNFCCC, About Clean Development Mechanism, http://cdm.unfccc.int/about/index.html (last visited Jan. 13,
2009).
xxxv
Tautz, supra note xiii.
xxxvi
Brazilian Embassy, supra note xxxii.
xxxvii Rohter, supra note xi.
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xxxviii
Several Brazilian states now compensate farmers and indigenous peoples for the environmental service of not
harming the rainforest. Carmona, supra note xii.
xxxix
Third World Network, Parties debate “shared vision” in UNFCCC workshop, Dec. 3, 2008,
www.bond.org.uk/data/files/resources/364/TWN-Poznan-News-Update-No.3.doc.
xl
Peter Wilson, Brazilians Kill Off Aussie Led Proposal on Carbon Capture at Poznan Climate Summit, THE
AUSTRALIAN, Dec. 11, 2008, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24782914-5013871,00.html.