Download Canada 7-Day Weather Outlook

Canada 7-Day Weather Outlook
Thursday, July 07, 2016
One change was noted with regards to the strong low pressure center that will impact the
Prairies Sunday and the first part of next week. The most recent computer forecast models still
suggest strong showers and thunderstorms will evolve in several portions of Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. Rain will also fall in several portions of Alberta, though rainfall reductions were noted
for southern Alberta compared to Wednesday’s computer forecast models. There is still a chance
for an easterly shift for the heaviest precipitation and a close monitoring of the situation is
warranted. Lingering showers from the disturbance will continue in portions of Saskatchewan
and Manitoba Wednesday and next Thursday with a few light showers also producing rain in
Alberta. Until then, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the
Prairies through Saturday.
Cool air behind the strong disturbance will build over Alberta and western Saskatchewan
Sunday and Monday before shifting easterly Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will dip
into a below average range while the cool air is tracking over the Prairies. Pockets in the eastern
Prairies will also trend slightly cooler than normal today. The temperature profile will trend
closer to normal most other days during the coming week. Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba
will also briefly trend a few degrees above average Sunday and Monday as a surge of warm air
shifts into the region ahead of the cool airmass in the western Prairies.
Fieldwork will be sluggish in much of the Prairies during the coming week due to the
frequent rainfall pattern. There will be opportunities to get into the fields during the next few
days before the significant rain event begins. Fieldwork delays will be more common Sunday
and the beginning of next week when rain potentials increase, most notably in Saskatchewan and
Manitoba.
A series of disturbances will promote scattered shower activity in the Prairies during the
next few days. Shower activity today will occur in the eastern half of the Prairies and areas from
the Peace River region into central Alberta through northwestern Saskatchewan. Rainfall will be
greatest for areas near and south of the Highway 1 corridor in Manitoba with moisture totals
ranging from 6 to 15 millimeters with local amounts of 25 millimeters or more in extreme
southeastern Manitoba. A few locations between Brandon and Winnipeg, Manitoba could also
receive more than 15 millimeters of rain. Other areas near and east of a line from Melfort
through Estevan, Saskatchewan will receive 1 to 10 millimeters of rain with locally greater
amounts. Coverage for the eastern Prairies will be 80%. Other areas north of a line from Calgary,
Alberta through Rosetown, Saskatchewan and east of a line from Rosetown through Coronach,
Saskatchewan will receive a trace to 5 millimeters of rain. Coverage for these areas will be 60%.
The remaining portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan will be dry.
Scattered shower activity will continue in several sections of the Prairies Friday and
Saturday. Rainfall Friday morning and afternoon will be restricted to the northern halves of
Alberta and Saskatchewan before shifting into southeastern Saskatchewan Friday evening.
Precipitation will then be erratically distributed across the Prairies throughout the day Saturday.
Areas near and northwest of a line from Red Deer through Athabasca, Alberta will receive some
of the greatest rainfall during this time with moisture totals ranging from 6 to 25 millimeters.
Local rain amounts over 25 millimeters will also be possible for areas closest to the Rocky
Mountains. Other sections of the Prairies will receive a trace to 10 millimeters of rain with
several areas from southern Alberta through areas near Rosetown and Outlook, Saskatchewan
trending mostly dry both days. Coverage across the Prairies will be 70%.
A strong low pressure center will evolve over the southern Prairies and northern Plains
Sunday before shifting into Saskatchewan and Manitoba Monday and Tuesday. The disturbance
will promote showers and thunderstorms in much of the Prairies with the heaviest precipitation
slated for Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Rainfall Sunday will fall in much of the Prairies with
exceptions for northern and portions of central Alberta. Strong showers and thunderstorms will
be possible from southern and southeastern Saskatchewan into western Manitoba in the
afternoon and evening that produce heavy rain with potential for hail and high wind speeds.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue in most areas outside of northern Alberta Monday. A
band of strong wrap-around showers and thunderstorms will evolve in portions of western and
central Saskatchewan in the afternoon and evening, though a few isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in western and central Manitoba as well. Scattered shower activity will then evolve
across the Prairies Tuesday with a few isolated thunderstorms possible from western through
northern Saskatchewan in the morning and early afternoon.
Areas from western Saskatchewan through western Manitoba will receive 15 to 75
millimeters of rain with locally greater amounts possible Sunday through Tuesday if this
morning’s computer forecast models verify. There is still potential for a slight reduction in
precipitation in future forecasts, though many areas will still receive heavy rain. Southern and
eastern Alberta and the eastern half of Manitoba will receive 5 to 25 millimeters of rain with
locally greater amounts. Central and northern Alberta will receive 1 to 15 millimeters of rain
with several areas in the Peace River region and extreme northern Alberta trending mostly dry
during this time.
Scattered showers will continue in portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba Wednesday
and next Thursday as the strong disturbance shifts into Ontario. A separate band of showers will
also produce rain from the Peace River region through southern Alberta both days. Rainfall will
be light in most locations with portions of Manitoba receiving 10 to 20 millimeters of rain.
Alternating periods of rain and sunshine will evolve July 15 – 21. There will be several
periods of dry weather that will help firm up the topsoil for areas dealing with excessive moisture
during this time. Rainfall will also be lighter compared to the first week of the outlook in many
production areas.
Cool Air Will Trail Strong Disturbance Sunday, Beginning Of Next Week
Other than a brief period of cool weather in the eastern Prairies today, temperatures will
trend near normal through Saturday. The strong disturbance that tracks across the Prairies will
then bring cool air to Alberta and western Saskatchewan Sunday and Monday while a pocket of
warm air drifts into the eastern Prairies. Temperatures will drop to a near to below average range
in the west while eastern areas are often warmer than normal. The cool air will then track into the
eastern Prairies Tuesday and Wednesday while warmer air slowly returns to the western Prairies.
Most locations will return to a seasonable temperature bias next Thursday.
Temperatures will trend near to above average most often July 15 – 21 in the Prairies.
However, there is potential for a weak pool of cool air to build over the eastern Prairies for a day
or two. No excessive cooling is expected.
High temperatures in the Prairies through Saturday will peak into the lower and middle
20s most often with pockets in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba only warming into the upper
teens today. A few locations near the U.S. border will also warm into the upper 20s Friday and
Saturday. Highs in Alberta and western Saskatchewan will cool into the upper teens and lower
20s Sunday and Monday with several locations only warming into the middle teens. Eastern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba will warm into the middle and upper 20s both days with a few
pockets in the lower 30s possible Sunday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the lower
and middle 20s in most locations with several areas in the eastern Prairies only warming into the
upper teens. Highs next Thursday will be in the lower and middle 20s.
Lows will be in the lower and middle teens in much of the Prairies during the coming
week. Portions of Alberta will cool into the middle and upper single digits Monday and Tuesday
with a few pockets cooling into the upper single digits Friday as well.
Winds
The strongest wind speeds through the end of next week will occur Sunday evening
through Tuesday. Sustained wind speeds will range from 25 to 40 kph with gusts of 55 kph or
higher most often with a few periods of lighter wind speeds in the early morning hours. Gusts of
80 kph or higher will also be possible for areas that experience thunderstorms. Wind speeds
Wednesday will dip into a range of 15 to 30 kph with gusts of 45 kph or higher as the
disturbance exits the Prairies. Wind speeds today through Saturday and again next Thursday will
range from 10 to 25 kph with gusts of 35 kph or higher.
7-Day Outlook
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