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VVEATHER PROVERBS AND PARADOXES BY W. J. HUMPHREYS, 'Ph.D. Meteorological Physicist, United Stales Weather l}ljP!]!jJ,f author of "Physics of the Air" BALTIMORE WILLIAMS & WILKINS COMPANY 1923 COPYRIGHT 1923 WILLIAMS & WILKINS COMPANY Made in United States 'oj America Published September, 1923 COMPOSED AND 'PRINTED AT THE WAVERJ;;Y PRESS BY THE WILLIAMS & WILKINS COMPANY BALl'IMORE, MARYLAND, U. S. J\. CONTENTS PAGE Preface ......... I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• PART vii I VVeather lDroverbs Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Seasons........ ..................................... Sun..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. The Green Ray. . ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 'Sky Colors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Rainbow........................................... Coronas and Halos ................................. " Moon .............................................. Stars...... ..................... .................... Fogs............................................... Clouds.. ........................................... Rain.... .............. ............ ................. Dew and Frost ..................................... . Wind ............................................. . Barometer......................................... '. Thunder............................... ,............ . Sound ............................................. . St. Elmo's Fire ........... , ......................... . Tide .............................................. . Odors ............................................. . Springs and Wells .................................... . Hairs, strings, and other things ....................... . Smoke .... , ........................................ . Plants....... ....................................... Birds and Beasts.................................... . Aches and Pains .................................... . iii 3 8 11 14 16 33 36 40 44 47 50 54 56 59 63 66 67 69 70 72 73 75 78 80 81 82 lV CONTENTS PART II Meteorological Paradoxes Introduction. " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Airpushed north blows east. ............... Rain dries the air...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. More air goes up than ever comes down. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. To cool air, heat it. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. To warm air, cool it. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Not air that is heated, but air that is not heated, is thereby warmed ................................. '. . . . . . . .. Not air that is chilled, but air that is not chilled, is 'thereby cooled ............................................ Mixing brings air to a non-uniform temperature. . . . . . . .. The nearer the sun, the colder the air .... : . . . . . . . . . . . .. The coldest air covers the warmest earth. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. As the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger ........ As the nights g,row long,er, the heat g,rows stronger ....... As the sun descends, the temperature ascends ........... When the thaw comes on, the frost goes down ........... The absolute maximum diurnal insolation (heat supply) is at the south pole .................................. The hotter the sun, the colder the earth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. The cooler the sun, the warmer the earth. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. The colder the day, the hotter the sun .................. The closer the sun, the colder the season. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. The sun rises before it is up. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. The sun sets after it is down ............... '.' . . . . . . . .. 0. • • • • • • • • •• 87 88 91 92 94 97 99 100 101 103 105 108 112 113 114 115 117 121 121 122 123 125 ILLUSTRATIONS FACING PAGE Rainbow .......•..................................... Corona .............................................. Halo .............................................. :. Fog, radiation ................................ , . . . . . .. Fog, advection or drift ............................... , Fracto-stratus, scud,-:mIst. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Cumulus ............................................ Cumulus and fracto-cumulus .......................... , . Alto-cumulus, "mackerel scales" ....................... , Alto-cumulus and cirro-cumulus ........................ Cirrus, "mares' tails," "painter's brush" ................ , Cumulus ............................................ Cumulus ............................................. Cumulo-nimbus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Lightning............................................ Crepuscular Rays, "Sun drawing water" ................. 32 36 38 46 48 48 50 50 50 50 50 52 52 54 66 82 FIGURES IN TEXT _ NU 1. How air pushed one way blows another.... . . . . . . . . . .. 90 2. Vertical temperature gradients of free air ........... , ., 95 PREFACE There are several good collections of weather proverbs, good in the encyclopedic sense of including everything, but none of them, not even Mr. Richard Inwards' delightful and surprisingly extensive Weather Lore, makes any attempt to separate the true and helpful from the false and misleading. These books are ·interesting·as folk-lore, but they are not useful as weather guides, for, making no distinction between the good and the bad, they jumble all together as of equal importance-rational proverbs, based on abundant and accurate observations, mere assertions, unsupported by facts, and utterly silly sayings that originated in sheer superstition. No wonder, then, all alike have come at least into disrepute. If, however, the few weather proverbs that are essentially correct could only be gotten away from their innumerable bad associates, and endowed with the dignity of logical explanations, they would, it is believed, at once be respected and soon become useful. The first part of this book, based on an article in the Popular Science Monthly, May, 1911, is an effort to make that desirable rescue, and to show that those saved are indeed rational and full of good service. vii viii PREFACE Paradoxes, too, like the terse proverb, are interesting, instructive, and mnemonk-they fix things in the memory. Hence, perhaps, the second part of the book, based on 'an article in the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, March 19, 1920, is also justified. These two parts are put under a single cover for convenience, each being smaIl, and because they really go well together as a Meteorological Miscellany. Those who wish to know more merely of the ways of the wind and the weather should consult a modem work on Meteorology, Those, however, who are ambitious to understand the causes of these ways, as also of the rainbow, the halo, the thunderstorm, the aurora and the many other interesting phenomena of the sky, might read Physics of the Air, published by the Franklin Institute of Philadelphia, Pa., and the various original articles there referred to. The subject is vast and in one asp~ct or allother meets every whim and. taste--charming to the aesthetic, profitable to the frugal, and challenging to the studious. The author desires to express· his thanks and. appreciation to the Fran'klin Institute of Philadelphia for their courtesy in allowing the use of numerous illustrations. PART I Weather Proverbs INTRODUCTTI9N "So it falls that all men are With fine weather happier far." -KING ALFRED. This thousand-year-old observation by England's wisest ruler recognizes the fact that fine ·weather induces good tempers, and therefore amply justifies the proverb that shrewdly bids one to "Do business with men when the wind is in the northwest," justifies it because when the wind is from that direction at any place in the temperate zone of the northern hemisphere, the region to which this proverb applies, the weather there is likely then to be fine and bracing, and hence one's mood buoyant, cheerful and hopeful-his best possible state for quick decision and bold enterprise. But this effect on the minds of men does not exhaust the good and the evil of weather conditions, for our comfort, our convenience, and even the success or failure of whatever we undertake, all depend, in large measure, upon clear skies and cloudy, upon wind and rain, and upon everything else that renders the elements fair or foul. As wittily and truthfully said: 3 4 WEATHER PROV.ERBS • "What is it moulds the life of man? The weather. What makes some black and others tan? The weather. What makes the Zulu live in trees; And Congo natives dress in leaves While others go in furs and freeze? The weather." Because, then, of the great influence weather conditions have over human affairs numerous rules for foretelling the coming of weather· changes have been formulated in all ages and by all peoples. Many of these rules are applicable nearly everywhere, but many others, as one might suspect, owe their justification to some peculiar configuration of mountain and valley, or distribution of land and water, and hence, when transferred to other places commonly are meaningless, if not even misleading, while a still larger number, born of fancy or superstition, are of no use anywhere. Never. theless, all of them, the wise and the silly, the good and the' bad, have been inherited alike from the ends of the earth-have become weather nuggets in that great vein of wisdom and folly called folk-lore. Some of these nuggets are as pure gold, for they correctly state the actual order, or sequence, of weather phenomena, as qetermined by in- WEA1HER PROVERBS 5 numerable observations, determined even when the cause for such an order was not in the least understood by those who discovered it, but, as already stated, most of them are as only fools' gold, alluringly pretty, but wholly deceptive. To this latter class belong hundreds of proverbs of the ground-hog and goose-bone type, some owing their origin to one thing and some to another, but, like predictions based on the weather of saints' days, or on the phase of the moon and the pointing of her horns, never for a moment accepted by those whose reason demands an ad~quate cause for every effect. But weather proverbs of that other classthose that do have more or less to support them-are worthy of very careful consideration and study, for they embody accurate descriptions of phenomena and express the usual sequence of events. It can be argued, of course, and with much show of good reason, that, no matter what its scientific interest, such a study cannot now have any practical use, since nearly every country has a national weather service, whose forecasts, for any given time and place, are reliably based upon the known immediately previous conditions all pver a continent, conditions that are continuously and accurately recorded and carefully studied. 6 WEATHER PROV~RBS It is true that when one is supplied -with ~uch information his meteorological horizon IS w(}rldwide. Seeing the weather as it is everywhere, he knows in what directions tHe storms are moving, and how fast, hence he can predict the approximate weather conditions at any given place a day or more in advance of their occurrence. But, in general, it is not practicable officially to forecast for definite hours, nor for particular farms and villages. These very local and short-range forecasts, though often of great importance, must, then, be made by everyone for himself according to his own in.terpretation of the weather signs before him. Besides.. in many places it is impossible to get, in time for use, either the official forecast, or the weather map upon which one may base his own opmlOns. Under these widespread and Il:lore or less common conditions certain signs of fair and foul Clearly are of especial value-signs which everyone uses to a greater or less extent, but with an understanding of their signific<uice that varies from the vague and indefinite, on the part of those to whom changes of the weather are of little importance, to the well-nigh full and complete, by those whose experienc(~ in watching weather indications has been long and compelling. WEATHER PROVERBS 7 Thus, the fisherman today, as in the past, often weighs anchor and flees from the gathering storm when the inexperienced would sail on in blissful expeGtation of continued fine weather; and the woodsman, as did his remotest ancestors, will note significant changes and understand their warning messages when the average person would see no change at all, or, if he did, at least fail to comprehend its meaning. The prescience of these men is remarkable, ·and it is with some of the useful weather proverbs they know so well, the causes of the phenomena they describe, and the relation of these phenomena to others they precede, that the first part of this book is concerned. It would be exceedingly profitable if infallible rules could be given for forecasting the weather, by signs or otherwise, but, fortunately for our interest and excitement in the matter, there are no such prosaic guides. There.-are, however, two companion proverbs that the sign-forecaster should never forget, namely; "All signs fail in dry weather," and, "In wet weather it rains without half trying." Of course, because when the air is comparatively dry the rainmaking process clearly must be vigorous, and w hen already nearly saturated, only moderate, to induce precipitation. 8 WEATHER PROVERBS } to "John, when is it going rain?" was asked, during a certain drought, of one known to be weather-wise. "Well, sir, I just tel1 you, it's not going to rain till the ground gets wet, then we shall have plenty of it." Not bad! Because, although the detail of how the ground was to get wet before it rained was overlooked, there is full recognition of the important fact that, in great measure, the weather goes by spells, each type tending to persist, just as implied by the above proverbs. SEASONS "A good year is always welcome." Naturally everyone asks: "How will the coming season be?" for much concerning the manner of our living, and what we may do, depends upon its type. To the farmer, especially, this is a vastly important question. A correct answer to it would tell him what crops to plant and where; whether upon hill or lowland, as much or little rain would determine; in light or heavy soil, for the same reason; and how best to cultivate them, plow deep or mulch, for instancevital points, everyone, to his success. But whatever we may hope ultimately to accomplish ~ WEATHER PROVERBS • 9 in seasonal forecast~g, it, today, is beyond the pale of scientific meteorology. Proverb meteorology, however, is full of it, and a few of the sayings that. forecast the results of a given kind of season, rather than the type of a coming one, are rationally founded. Among them we have: "Frost year, Fruit year." "Year of snow, Fruit will grow." Or, in another form, "A year of snow, a year of-plenty." That these and similar statements commonly are true is evident from the fact that a continuous, or nearly continuous, covering of snow, incident to a cold winter, not only delays the blossoming of fruit trees until after killing frosts are probable, but also prevents that alternate thawing and freezing so ruinous to wheat and other winter grains. In short, as two other proverbs put it, "A cold April The barn will fill." "A late spring never deceives." 10 WEATHER PROVERBS o A different class of proverbs, but one meaning practically the same thing as the foregoing, and justified by the same fact, that is, that an unseasonably early growth of vegetation is likely to be injured by later freezes, is illustrated by the following examples: "January warm the Lord have mercy!" "If you see grass in January, Lock your grain in your granary." "January blossoms fill no man's cellar." "January wet, no wine you g~t." "January and February, Do fill or empty the granary." "All the months of the year Curse a fair Februeer." "A February spring Is worth nothing." "March damp and warm Does farmer much harm." Another interesting proverb belongin~ to this class, but requiring special explanation, is: "Thunder in March betokeneth a fruitful year." 11 WEAJHER PROVERBS Since a: thunderstorm seldom occurs in the early spring except when a cold wave follows and breaks up a spell of mild weather (the cold air overrunning the warmer here and there, or, at least, walling up against it, and thereby inducing that vigorous uprush of the atmosphere essential to the thunderstorm) it follows that thunder in March implies cold weather to follow, and hence the prevention of the threatened too early appearance of vegetation. There are still many other proverbs, perhaps hundreds, that give seasonal forecasts, but, except those that belong to the above classes, they have very little worth. Nearly, "if not quite all, that pretend to foretell the weather of the coming season range from the purely fanciful to the utterly inane. SUN "Above the rest, the sun who never lies Foretells the change of weather in the skies." -VIRGIL. 'While the proverbs in the most part, are sands of fancy and of not all, of those that concerning the seasons, built upon the shifting superstition, many, but concern the immediate " 12 WEATHER PROV~RBS future-the next few hours, or, at most, the coming day or two-are built upon the sure foundation of accurate observation and correct reasoning. Among these perhaps' the best are those that have to do with the color of the sky and the appearances of the sun, the moon, and the stars, for we see the first because of our atmosphere, and the others through it. The look, as we say, therefore, of these things shows clearly the state of the atmosphere, and to the fisherman, and others of experienced judgment, is an excellent sign of the coming weather. Thus, when the air is humid and the sky growing gray, the c<tnditions, that frequently precede a gathering storm, then, as Shakespeare puts it, "The sun sets weeping in the lowly west, Witnessing storms to come, woe and unrest." Of course the condition of the atmosphere that produces this effect may occur at any hour, but the consequent modified appearance of the sun is most conspicuous only when it is seen through a great thickness of the air, that is, when it is near the horizon. Hence most weather proverbs based on the appearance of the sun refer to morning or evening. Some, however, are quite general and refer to any tiVle of the day, as, for instance, the following WE4THER PROVERBS 13 one with· which we have all been familiar from childho0d: «~ red sun has water in his eye." Now, the condition that most favors a red sun is a large quantity of dust-smoke particles are particularly effective-in a damp atmosphere. Smoke alone, in considerable amount pr0duces this effect, as evidenced by forest fires during droughts when, of course, it has no weather significance. The red, however, is always deepened by the presence of moisture. The blue and other short wave-length colors, as we call them, of sunlight are both scattered and absorbed to a much greater extent by a given amount of dust or other substances, such as water vapor, than is the red; and this effect, since it is proportional to the number of the particles and to the square of the volume of each (assuming all to be the same size), becomes more pronounced as the particles unite. Suppose, for instance, that all the particles unite, in pairs, or groups of two each. The number of scattering and absorbing centers will then be reduced to half the original number, but each, owing to its increased volume, will be four times as effective as a single particle. Hence the net result of the assumed coalescence would be double the absorption and scattering of the 14 WEATHER PROV~RBS light. When, therefore, the air is heavily charged with dust particles that have· becolhe laden with moisture, as they do in a humid atmosphere, and hence relatively bulky, we see· the sun as a fiery red ball. Clearly, then, a red sun often implies a humid atmosphere, a condition obviously both essential and favorable to the occurrence of rain. It is this fact that justifies, in general, the proverb that is under consideration, and also that . ... other one that says: "If red the sun begin his race Be sure the rain will fall apace." THE GREEN RAY "Let us go and see the green ray." Such was the prompt decision of Helena's uncles, as told by Jules Verne in his delightful Scotch story, "The Green Ray," when she peremptorily refused to marry anyone until she had seen the green ray-the ray that, according to Highland legend, once seen, prevents all deception in love, through the magical power it gives of seeing clearly into one's own heart and into the hearts of others. WEAiI'HER PROVERBS 15 But what is the green ray? It is the green flash, startlingly sudden and brilliant, of the last speck of the sun as it sinks in cloudless and exceptionally' clear air below a distant sharply defined horizon. All the light from the sun, or other celestial object, is bent down a little towards the perpendicular as it passes through the atmosphere; the red portion least of all, the orange next, then the yellow, green, blue, and violet. Hence, if the air were perfectly transparent, which it never is, the last tip of the setting sun would lose first the red portion of its light, then the yellow, and so on through the rest of the pure or spectrum colors, and finally disappear as a violet star, all in the course of only a few seconds. The rising sun obviously would first appear as a violet star, and then gain additional colors in the reverse order to the above, and quickly become dazzlingly white. But, as stated, the air never is fully transparent, but always too turbid to let through from a low .sun much of either the blue or the violet light, the colors most enfeebled by transmission through the atmosphere; hence the violet ray, or flash, is unknown. Indeed the air usually is so turbid, so laden with dust and moisture, that the disappearing sun, even to the last speck, is reddish, the color least affected. 16 WEATHER PROV~RBS However, when the aIr is especially clear, and rain therefore improbable for fully twenty-four hours, much green light also comes through from the setting sun, and a close observer may easily see the green ray, especially if so situated that he may watch for it over a water horizon. The green ray then, or green flash, whatever its I!otency in respect to fair women, is at least a harbinger of fair weather. In proverb form: Glimpse you e'er the green ray, Count the morrow a fine day. SKY COLORS "Men judge by the complexion of the sky The state and inclination of the day." -SHAKESPEARE. There are many proverbs, ranging from the good and useful to the misleading and absurd, concerning the color of the sky at sunrise and sunset, the times when sky colors are most pronounced, varied, and significant. From Shakespeare we have the well-known lines: "A red morn that ever yet betokened Wreck to the seaman, tempest to the field, Sorrow to shepherds, woe unto the birds, Gusts and foul flaws to herdsmen and to herds." WEhTHER PROVERBS 17 Besides these stately verses there are many proverb· jingles that show substantiaHy the same weather wisdom. One of them puts it thus: "Sky red in the morning Is a sailor's sure warning; Sky red at night Is the sailor's delight." But in many ways the most interesting of all the proverbs that have to do with red sunrise and red sunset is the one which, according to Matthew, Christ used in answer to the Pharisees and Sadducees when they asked that He would show them a sign from heaven: "He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red. "And in the morning, It will be foul weather to-day: for the sky is red and lowring." It would seem, too, that Christ sanctioned these views, for it does not appear reasonable that He would teach by illustrations which He knew to be false. Then, too, He follows the above with these words: "0 ye llypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times?" 18 WEATHER PROVIiRBS But whether or not Christ accepted these sayings as reasonably good weather preaictions, it is certain that those to whom He spoke both knew them and believed in them .• It is worth while, therefore, to search, even though the search be a somewhat tedious one, for the physical explanation of these phenomena, and to see how it is possible, if it really is, for identically the same colors of the sky to have one meaning in the evening and another in the. mornmg. To clear the way for this explanation it is necessary, first, to tell something of the composition of sunlight, and a little about the atmosphere through which this light passes on its way to the surface of the earth. We know that raindrops are colorless, and we know, too, that when we are between a falling shower and the bright sun, out of these very drops comes every exquisite color of the rainbow. We are also aware that prism-shaped, colorless, and transparent objects on receiving, in proper position, a ray of white sunlight emit, from another face, the rainbow's many brilliant hues, from the faintest violet to deepest ruby; and that when all these colored lights are recom-' bined, or superimposed, the result is white light again like the original. From such experim'ents and observations we infer that sunlight WEATHER PROVERBS .) 19 is composed, in part at least, of all pure colors, and that they grade imperceptibly from one to another. Furthermore, it is possible to obtain, in ways that every good work on optics minutely explains, two sources of light, of the same color and intensity, such that at certain places, fully exposed to each, they together give illumination more than twice-in fact up to fourfoldfis intense as that from either source alone, and at closely adjacent places illumination less than that from but one, even to utter darkness. Now, this tells us that in some respects light radiation is like water waves, for two trains of these may, as nearly everyone has often seen, so combine as to produce exceptionally large waves in some places (where the ups of each come together) and practically smooth water at others (where the ups of the one are added to the downs of the other). Indeed, it has been shown by numerous experiments that light has several properties identical with those of water waves. One of these is wave-length, that is, the distance from a point in one wave or disturbance to the closest corresponding point in its nearest neighbor, such as the shortest distance from crest to crest or trough to trough. Of all colors, violet has the shortest wavelength, and red the longest. Blue is next to 20 WEATHER . PROV~RBS violet, yellow next to red, and green about an average of all. These five are the only colors, and this their order, that the normal eye naturally recognizes in the rain bow or other solar spectrum. If the classic (mystic might also be added) seven are insisted on, then we must place orange, which few, perhaps, instinctively regard as a unique color, between red and yellow, and indigo, which the unguided novice never singles out, between blue and violet. The. wave-length of red light is nearly twice that of violet, and yet it would take more than 30,000 of the longest waves to which the eye is sensitive to span a single inch. Turning, now, our attention to the atmosphere, we find that at all times the whole of it is literally teeming with dust particles that come from fires, dead plants, dry earth, spray from the ocean, volcanic explosions, and even the millions of meteors and cosmic motes caught up daily in our ceaseless whirl and rush through stellar spa~e. Much of this dust is excessively fine and can hardly be said to fall out of the air at all, except as nuclei about which raindrops and snow crystals have condensed. Besides furnishing the surfaces on. which condensation can and does start, and thereby making possible the formation of clouds, the fall of snow and the comihg of rain, dust pro- WEATHER PROVERBS , 21 foundly affects every beam of light that passes through. the atmosphere. Thus, as the late Lord Rayleigh showed long ago, dust motes and even air molecules, scatter and thereby weaken a beam of light rapidly more and more with decrease of wave-length, in fact at a rate that is inversely proportional to the fourth power of the wave-length. Hence the scattering and weakening of violet light, as it passes through the atmosphere, is tenfold, roughly, blue sixfold, green fourfold, and yellow twice, that of red. Furthermore, this scattering and weakening of the light increases for all colors directly with the dustiness, or number of dust particles per unit volume; and also increases with the square of the size (volume occupied) of the scattering particle. That is, if the number of dust· particles passed by be doubled, the scattering or weakening of the light will also' be doubled; and if the linear dimensions of a particle (diameter, say, if the particle is spherical) be doubled, or volume made eightfold, the scattering will be sixty-four times as great. All this applies to only the very fine dust. The coarser particles, on the other hand, affect the incident light both by reflection and by absorption, but while this effectively decreases the intensity, it decreases all colors nearLy 22 WEATHER PROVeRBS equally and thus leaves the quality of the light roughly the same. The full mathematical equations that express the intensity of the light as received at the surface of the earth are a little more complex than one might infer from the above considerations. These additional factors, however, will not be discussed, since enough has already been given to account for the colors of the sky, the phenomena under discussion, because sky light i~ only the residual reaching us, after all its losses en route, of that portion of the sunlight which was scattered by the air and the substances floating in it. Of course some of the light reaching the observer has been scattered more than once, but while this slightly increases the brightness of the sky it does not appreciably alter its colors. It is possible now, keeping the above facts in mind, to draw some important conclusions. Thus, since the shortest wave-length light is so strongly scattered that very little of it can get through the atmosphere to the surface of the earth the color of the clear sky, as seen anywhere, except from great elevations, cannot be violet. Neither can the normal sky be red, because relatively little of this long wave-length color is scattered at all. Much violet indeed starts towards the observer, as likewise in all WEATHER PROVERBS 23 other directions, from the atmosphere along the line. of sight towards any portion of the sky, but very little of it reaches him. On the other hand, a much larger fraction of the red gets through, but the original amount is small. Hence the controlling intensity of sky light commonly has some intermediate color, generally blue. But, as the dominant color of the sky depends on the relative intensities of the several colors as they reach the observer, and these compara-' tive values on the amount of scattering to which each color is subjected, and this in tum on the size and number of dust particles in the atmosphere, it follows that different parts of the sky at the same time, and the same part at different times, will have different colors depending on the amount, aggregation, and distribution of atmospheric dust. When the dust particles are relatively few and small the dominant color of the sky is blue. On the other hand, when the dust motes increase in size and number, as they do on many occasions-on dry windy days for instanceor in size only, as happens when the atmosphere becomes moist, owing to their tendency to absorb moisture, light of the shorter wavelengths ,is still more enfeebled and the sky assumes some longer wave-length color, such 24 .. WEATHER PROVERBS as green, yellow, or even red. Finally, when the particles are large enough to refleet radiation of all colors, the sky is whitish. Hence both the morning and the evel'ling twilight sky often show a series of colors ranging from red, near the horizon, through orange and yellow to a green or even blue-green with increase of elevation and consequent decrease in the number and size of dust particles along the path of light from the sun to that part of the. sky in question and thence to the observer. When the sky is covered with a rather thick layer of cloud it is, as everyone knows, almost uniformly gray. This is because the water droplets that form a cloud, though so small that a thousand of them would make a row only an inch long, are large enough to reflect, as do mirrors, and to refract, or transmit in a new direction, light of every color. Hence the light that gets through a cloud layer is the same in quality, white, as that which falls on its upper surface. It remains, now, in preparing the way to an understanding of the weather significance of morning and evening colors, briefly to. outline the essential conditions and processes by which cloud is formed and rain produced. Probably that one of these conditions with w.hich the general public is least familiar is the WEATHER PROVERBS 25 presence, . In large numbers, of some sort of nuclei about which water vapor can condense. In the open air these nuclei are always dust particles, and, apparently, the molecules or other aggregates, generally in negligible amounts, of certain hygroscopic gases or vapors. The extreme conditions that induce condensation in the absence of such nuclei, and which may be obtained in a laboratory, never occur in Nature . . But besides the presence of dust particles, a certain relation between the temperature and the water content of the atmosphere is also essential to condensation. We say: The warmer the air, so long as its temperature is below the boiling point, the greater, and increasingly greater, the amount of water vapor it can contain in the form of an invisible gas. But this convenient way of talking about the water vapor in the air is not strictly correct, for the atmosphere does not soak up and hold water like a sponge. In fact the amount of water vapor that can exist in a given volume is practically not affected at all by the presence or absence of the atmosphere or other gases, but only by the temperature. Strictly, then, we should say: The higher the temperature the greater the amount of invisible water vapor a given volume can contain. However, it is convenient to speak of the atmosphere as holding wator 26 WEATHER PROV~RBS vapor, and this convenience is allowable provided we do not mean exactly what we" say and are reasonably certain others will understand what we do mean. If, then, air, which always is dusty, containing, as we say, all or nearly all the water vapor it can hold, is cooled to a distinctly lower temperature a corresponding amount of condensation will take place on each dust mote, and the countless droplets thus formed will appear as a fog or a cloud of greater or less density. The most efficient method of producing the cooling necessary to cloud formation is to move the moist air to a place of less pressure, that i~, lift it up to a greater elevation, where it will expand and thereby do work against the· surrounding decreased pressure at the expense of the heat energy it contains. This effect is well illustrated by the formation of cumuli, or thunderstorm clouds, in the summer time, the process of which, in general, is as follows; The earth is heated by sunshine. The warmed earth in turn heats the adjacent atmosphere which, consequently, expands and thereby becomes lighter, volume for volume, than the surrounding cooler air. The relatively light, warm air, often nearly saturated with water vapor evaporated from growing vegetation, moist earth, lakes, and other sources, and by this vapor WEAlHER PROVERBS 27 rendered. still lighter, is buoyed up by the cooler aad denser adjacent air, very much as a cork ,is made to bob up when set free under water. The lifted, or, as we commonly say, the rising air, sustains at any particular time only the weight of the atmosphere that is above it at that moment, hence, so long as the air is rising this weight is growing less and as it passes from a region of greater to one of less pressure it ,expands, just as a compressed spring does when its load is decreased. As the spring expands, it must do the work of lifting the remaining weight, and so it is with the atmosphere-in expanding it has to lift the air that is still above it and thereby do work. This work is possible only because of the heat of the expanding air itself; hence, as it expands it gets correspondingly cooler, and, consequently, the amount of transparent water vapor it can contain rapidly decreases. When the dewpoint (temperature at which the air is saturated by the moisture present) is passed, cloud is formed. A rising mass of air, then, cools because of the work it does in expanding against the surrounding pressure and thereby soon reaches a temperature, commonly called the dewpoint, below which it cannot contain as a gas all its water vapor. Hence any further rising and consequent cooling leads to precipitation-a cpl- 28 WEATHER PROV~RBS lection of the excess water vapor a90ut dust particles--and the formation of cloud .• ·With the foregoing facts clearly in mind it is easy to understand, in a general way, those actions of nature that give weather significance to the sky colors of morning and evening, and, in large measure justify the proverbs that for ages have been associated with them. Thus, a red evening sky means that the temperature has not fallen below the dewpoint even at th~ tops ,of the strongly-cooled rising currents of air that are so common during the heated portion of the afternoon (cooling below this critical point gives a gray or clouded sky owing to condensation), and hence that the' air contains so little moisture that rain, within the coming twenty-four hours, is improbable. If the evening sky, near tlle western horizon, is yellow, greenish, or some other short wavelength color, then all the greater is the chance for clear weather, for these colors indicate even less incipient condensation (smaller particles, indicating a greater removal from the ::iewpciint) and hence a drier air than does red. Clearly, then, the following lines from Shakespeare express a general truth: "The weary sun hath made a golden set, And by the bright track of his fiery car Gives token of a goodly day tomorrow," WEATHER PROVERBS 29 If, however, the evening sky has none of these colors, but is overcast with a uniform gray, then we know that the dust particles have become loaded with much moisture, even to the development of myriads of water droplets. But this effect is positive evidence that at considerable elevations the atmosphere is saturated, a condition that favors rain and justifies the familiar proverbs: "If the sun set in gray The next will be a rainy day." "If the sun goes pale to bed 'Twill rain tomorrow, it is said." The above discussion of color phenomena in relation to the weather applies to the evening sky only. It remains to explain the origin of similar morning effects and to point out the differences in the processes by which they are brought about. A gray morning sky means, just as does a gray evening sky, that at some level the atmosphere is filled with water globules which, as all such globules do, refract and specularly reflect light of every color. But the process by which the morning droplets are formed may not be, and often is not, the same as that by which the evening droplets are formed. The 30 WEATHER PROVERBS " dust of the day sky is heated by sunshine, direct or scattered, as are also, to a greater or less extent, both the air and the earth beneath, while' the dust in the night sky, at) does everything else that is freely exposed, loses more or less heat, and thereby cools, through radiation to space. Besides, the atmosphere during the daytime, and, especially, in the afternoon, is cooled by expansion incident to rising, and this cooling, in spite of the counter warming by the sunshine, often is sufficient to cause more or less conden-· sation on the dust particles thCj.t are present. At night, on the other hand, there generally are but few, if any, rising currents, owing to the absence of surface heating, and, consequently, no marked expansional cooling of the air. Clearly, then, the gray of the morning sky often may be owing to water droplets that have gathered as so much dew on the dust particles of the iower atmosphere-dew that has collected on them because of the slightly lower temperature they maintain through radiation to space, just as, and for the same·'reason that, it collects on blades of grass and other exposed good radiators. But in order that the marked radiation, essential to the formation of droplets, may take place, it is necessary that the atplOsphere above them be dry, for water vapor WEATHER PROVERBS () 31 in quantity does not allow long wave-length, or air-temperature radiation, freely to pass through it. Hence a gray morning sky, because it implies a dry atmoS'phere above the dew droplet haze, justifies the expectation of a fair day. Even the droplets to which the gray is due are soon evaporated by the rising sun, nor is any ascension of the lower humid air likely to cause precipitation since it is thereby mixed with the much drier air above. A red morning sky, however, means several things quite different from those implied by a gray one, viz.: That the atmosphere is rather humid, else the clear sky would have a short wave-length color, such as yellow or green; that, as the sky is not gray, there are no dew, or water, droplets on the dust particles of the lower air; that therefore this dust has been protected from excessive loss of heat by radiation; and, from this in turn, that the upper air contains much moisture, the condition that holds radiation losses down to a minimum. That is, a red morning sky implies that the whole atmosphere, up to considerable elevations, is humid, and rain, therefore, probable, later in the day. Convection, as we have seen, is largely responsible ;for the colors, the gray especially, of the evening sky, and radiation for the gray of the morning sky. Hence the amount and djs- 32 WEATHER PROVERBS • tribution of moisture most favorable to any given sky color, particularly gray m' red, is radically different in the two cases. There is, therefore, a real physical basis fO'r, and much truth in, the proverbs that declare one result to follow the red sky of the morning, and quite another that of the evening. Similarly, the morning and evening implications of certain other sky colors also differ radically. Some of the best and most familiar proverbs of this class are: "Evening gray and morning red Make the shepherd hang his head." "An evening gray and a morning red Will send the shepherd wet to bed." "Evening red and morning gray Two sure signs of one fine day." "Evening red and morning gray Help the traveler on his way; Evening gray and morning red Bring down rain upon his head." ~ 0 !-< :: .; ~ ~ :.:: a.. ~A d .( "'" ~ID "g 11 ...$ ~ 2 i..... Ii 0 i!: ~ ~ oS .8 .~ '=~ WEA,THER PROVERBS 33 RAINBOW "The bridge of the gods." -Norse saying. That glorious photometeor, the rainbow~ap pealed compellingly to the imagination of many primitive peoples. Indeed a book might be written on its symbolism in religion, and another on its secular use by the poets of all nations. No ,wonder then that the sailors and the shepherds also watched and remembered, and soon saw in the rainbow that which meant so much to them-a token of the coming weather. The best of the rainbow's weather signs have long been formulated in the following proverbs: "Rainbow at night, shepherd's delight; Rainbow in morning, shepherds take warning." "A rainbow in the morning Is the shepherd's warning; A rainbow at night Is the shepherd's delight." "If there be a rainbow in the eve, It will rain and leave; But if there be a rainbow in the morrow It will neither lend nor borrow." Perhaps some stickler for truth and accuraCymighty good things to be a stickler for-may , 34 WEATHER PROV:e;RBS insist that a rainbow at night is an absurdity. Well, not necessarily absurd, for occasionally the moon produces a very pretty rainbow. However, the word "night," in the first two of the above proverbs, means evening, in the sense of late afternoon. These proverbs have been justified by the fact that where they originated, and indeed everywhere in the temperate zones, the prevailing wind, and hence nearly all showers" including those in which the rainbow is seen, move from west to east. Clearly, then, as the argument runs, since .the rainbow is always on the opposite side of the observer from the sun, the shower in which an evening rainbow is seen commonly is moving farther away from the place of observation and thereby promising fair weather for that locality, at least so far as that particular rain is concerned; while, on the other hand, a morning bow, being seen in the west, indicates an approaching shower. All this is good enough, so far as it goes, and for the immediate neighborhood of the observer, but the morning and evening bows have a much broader significance. Since the rainbow is seen only in local showers (requiring simultaneous rain and sunshine), and since the shower normally implies a local uprush of the air, due; afl a rule, to surface heating, it follows that th~ WEATHER PROVERBS 35 general weather significance of the morning and evening ·bows is essentially the same as that of morning and evening showers. Now, the surface grows warmer from early morning until mid-afternoon, unless the sky becomes clouded. Hence, during this time the air rises higher and higher, and, owing to the resulting expansion of this rising air, its temperature and, thereby, its vapor capacity, become correspondingly less. Clearly, then, a morning rainbow means that the air is rather humid, and rains likely, for a shower has occurred with but little rise of the air and slight cooling. The evening rainbow, on the contrary, indicates that the air is comparatively dry, and fair weather probable, for the existing shower has required the considerable cooling incident to high ascension. Another valuable proverb of this class, and more, perhaps, to the sailor's liking, runs as follows: "Rainbow to windward, foul fall the day; Rainbow to leeward, damp runs away." The justification of this proverb is obvious. If the bow is to windward, rain may well be expected, for the shower is approaching. If the bow is· to leeward no rain can come from that shower, at. least, for it is already receding. Furthermore, since, as above stated, our pre- • 36 WEATHER PROVPiRBS vailing winds are from west to east, windward generally means westward, and leeward eastward. Hence, a rainbow seldom occurs to windward except in the morning, and· therefore it indicates, as above explained, high humidity and the probability of showers. Similarly, a rainbow to leeward is, almost certainly, a rainbow in the evening and therefore, like the latter, implies that the humidity is low and that the morrow probably will be fair. CORONAS AND HALOS "For I fear a hurricane; Last night the moon had a golden ring, And tonight no moon we see." -LONGFELLOW. Many proverbs foretelling rain and bad weather are based on the appearance of solar aad lunar halos and coronas, and as these very commonly are associated with the types of clouds that precede a storm the proverbs of this class are well founded. Coronas are the small colored rings of light, red on the outside, that encircle any bright object wIken seen through a mist, though the term commonly is restricted to the colored , =1>0 101 011 s:: "C 011 e <: 01 j u :s!~ d ;.. III Z ~ ~ ] ! .s... ~j ~ u • 3 :: " WEA1;HER PROVERBS 37 rings around the sun and moon. They are caused by what the physicist calls diffraction, that is, the bending of light at the boundary of an object into its geometric shadow, a phenomenon of the greatest importance in the science of optics. The angular radius of the corona depenps on the size of the diffracting objects, the water droplets, in the sense that the larger the droplets the smaller the corona. Hence a qecreasing corona implies growing drops and the probability of rain. On the other hand an enlarging corona as definitely shows evaporation and clearing skies. Halos, the second of the two classes of optical phenomena now under consideration, should not be confused with coronas; and they need not be, for they consist of arcs and circles of relatively large diameters. Two, and they by far the most common, are circular about the sun, or moon, and have red inner borders. Three others are circular about the zenith, two extending only part of the way around, and one all the way and through the sun itself. Moonlight is too feeble often to render this last halo visible. The other fifteen or so are variously scattered over the sky, and though each is interesting as an optical phenomenon, none has an individual proverb recognition. The large circle that passes through the sun, and one C\f 38 WEATHER PROVERBS two other halos are white, with no tinge of color, and are caused by reflection by snow crystals. All the others are more or less colored, with the red nearest the sun, or moon, except in one or two very rare halos, and produced by refraction of the light, or the bending of it out of its course on its passage through small ice needles. Halos are very commonly seen in that high veil of cirrus clouds that so frequently is caught up from the tops of storms and carried far ahead by the swiftly moving currents that nearly always prevail at great altitudes. It is this usual forward position of halos relative to moving storms that makes them the fairly good indicators they are of approaching bad weather. As the proverb puts it, "The moon with a circle brings water in her beak." And, as the Zuni Indians say, "When the sun is in his bouse it will rain soon." Several others of these proverbs refer to the apparent diameter of the circle. Thus we have: "Far burr, near rain." "The bigger the ring, the nearer the wet." "When the .beel is far the storm is n'arj WlaeD the wheel ~ n'ar dae storm is far!' :: d ::- £ ~ t::I 0 C,) '2 ::i s!I: < .'!:i ;;. )II ~ ..8 ~ :a ! 8 .!!j d ..s '-" ~ .9 13 Ul J WEAT}IER PROVERBS 39 These cannot refer to the corona, which actually dbes change in angular size, as explained above, because in that case just the reverse is true, namely,' the bigger the ring the farther off the storm. Clearly, then, they apply only to the halo. Now, as the apparent size of an object of constant diameter (the angular diameter of the halo is always the same) depends upon its seeming distance away, it follows that the supposed changes referred to are only optical illusions, due to erroneous impressions of distance. A good illustration of this kind of illusion is furnished by the moon as seen by different people,) or 3;S seen at different elevations above the horizon by the same person. \Vhen high in the heavens, where it appears to be comparatively near, it looks smaller than it does when close to the horizon where it seems to be farther away; and yet careful measurements show but little change in its angular diameter, and that little just the reverse of appearances. Hence, when the actual distance to a halo is less than it seems to be, as often happens when the clouds are low, it appears to be unusually large; and, conversely, when the clouds are very high a halo in them, because the distance to it commonly is underestimated, impresses one as being correspondingly small. 40 WEATHER PRO';IERBS Now, the higher the cIoud~ the swifter the winds that carry them along and the farther removed they become from the parent storm. Hence, a halo that appears small is due to clouds that probably are far removed from the storm that produced them, while a halo that seems large, since it is caused by relatively low and, therefore, slow~moving clouds, usually indicates that the storm, if ther~ be one, is comparatively near. MOON "But chiefly look to Cynthia's varying face; There surest signs of coming weather trace." -ARATUS, Many people have imagined, indeed many still imagine, that the moon appreciably controls the weather, and numerous proverbs are based on this assumed relation. Careful studies of the records, however, have shown that the moon's influence on the weather, beyond a very small tidal effect on the atmosphere, as indicated by the barometer, is entirely negligible. As has been well said: WEAT,HER PROVERBS 41 "The moon and the weather May change together; But change of the moon • Does not change the weather. If we'd no moon at all, And that may seem strange, We still should have weather That's subject to change." However, the appearance of the mo(Jn de-, pends upon the conditions of the atmo~phere, bence proverbs based upon phenomena of this nature are well founded and valuable. Thus: "Clear moon, Frost soon." "Moonlit nig,hts have the heaviest frosts." and others of this class, are true enough, because on the clearest nights the cooling of the earth's surface by radiation is greatest and therefore most likely to cause, through the resulting low temperature, condensation in' the form of dew or frost. The following moon proverbs also have stood the tests of ages: "Pale moon doth rain, Red moon doth blow, White moon doth neither rain nor snow." "If the moon show a silver shield, Be not afraid to reap your field; But if she rises haloed round; Soon we'll tread on deluged ground." 42 WEATHER PRO\)ERBS Here "pale moon" and moon "haloed round" both imply thin clouds, such as run ahead of a general rainstorm; "red moon" frequently implies much humidity, a condition also common for many hours previous to the onset of a storm; while "white moon," and moon with a "silver shield," evidence the absence of clouds and a comparatively dry atmosphere. One of the most interesting of the moon proverbs is this: "Sharp horns do threaten windy weather!' The bad seeing of the moon and stars, that is, the fuzzy outlines of the one and the excessive twinkling of the others, when the air is clear, is due to temperature inequalities in the atmosphere. These inequalities are greatly decreased, if not entirely eliminated, by the mixing caused by strong winds. When the moon's horns, then, appear sharp these· inequalities do not exist, and the natural inference is that there are strong overhead whids which later may reach the surface of the earth. The following are, perhaps, the most striking of all the moon proverbs; apparently silly, both of them, and yet ripe in wisdom: "The full moon eats clouds." "The moon grows fat on ,clouds." WEATHER PROVERBS 43 A lay~r of rather high and more or less detached ,clouds, looking somewhat like a flow of ice cakes, is a very common afternoon phenomenon, espeGially during the summer. Now, as soon as the sun goes down, these clouds, which are good radiators of heat, grow colder and cool in turn the air in which they float. This cooled and, consequently, denser air falls (because of its increased density), dragging the clouds with it, to lower levels where it comes . to rest in equilibrium with the newly adjacent atmosphere. But the lower air is warmer than the upper, and so it happens that when the chilled air has come to rest it is warmer than it was before it was first cooled. That is, the clouds are thus brought into air that is relatively warm and dry; hence, a layer of afternoon clouds often disappears early in the evenmg. Now, although the evaporaj:ion of falling clouds of this type is as likely and frequent during one lunar phase as another, their disappearance clearly is conspicuous only when the moon is above the horizon. Hence the clearing of evening clouds from the sky, naturally, though erroneously, is popularly attributed to the moon. Perhaps the idea that the "moon grows fat on clouds" may have had its origin in the fact 44 WEATHER PROVE;_RBS that the moon is above the horizon thr.ough the early portion of the evening, when the cloud disappearance in question occurs, only duri~g the first and second quarters, or· while it is nightly growing fuller and rounder. STARS "The prudent mariner oft marks afar The coming of tempests by Bootes's star. -AAATUS • . The stars, like the sun and the moon, have furnished many proverbs concerning the weather. Most of the star proverbs, like all others, are mere nonsense, but a few of them have decided merit, as, for instance: "When the stars begin to huddle, The earth will soon become a puddle." This proverb furnishes, in general, a cowect forecast. It also furnishes a curious illustration of the ignorance that once was-perhaps it would not be far wrong to say still is-so prevalent concerning the stars. When a mist, due to the beglhning of condensation, forms over the sky, as it does on the forward side of a storm, the smaller stars cease WEATJIER PROVERBS 4S to be visible, while the brighter ones shine dimly with a blJlr (really a faint aureole and corona) of light about them, each looking like a small confused clus~er of stars. Hence the erroneous idea, implied in the above proverb, that stars huddle together at one time-just before a rainand scatter about at another. Or, possibly, huddle, in this case implies hide, an obsolete meaning, for it commonly is true, as just exJ:!lained, that When the stars begin to hide, Soon the rain will betide. This same idea that fading stars indicate rain, which of course they do, since they show increasing humidity and haze, was sung ages ago by the Greek poet Aratus, who put into verse all the then-known weather wisdom. He says, in the English of J. Lamb: "When the bright gems that night's black vault adorn But faintly shine-of half their radiance shornAnd not by cloud obscured or dimmed to sight By the fine silvery veil of Cynthia's light, But of themselves appear to faint away, They warning give of a tempestuous day." There is also some ground for the proverb that declares the number of stars within a lunar halo to be the number of days before a storm, 46 WEATHER PROVERBS ~ for the nearer the storm the denser t.he condensation, and, of course, the fewer the _!)tars seen through it. However, as even one entire day is a pretty long period to cover. by sign forecasting, it would be better simply to say that the fewer the stars the nearer the rain; though even in this form it is not very trustworthy owing to the fact that the brighter stars are unevenly distributed over the sky. An entirely different star phenomenon that has given rise to a few proverbs is twinkling, or the rapid irregularities itt star brightness. This fluctuation in their light is caused, mainly, by irregular refraction due to numerous inequalities in the distribution of temperature and humidity, such as necessarily accompany the over and under running of air currents of different origins, a condition that often precedes a storm. ~ence . the justification of the prosaic proverb that says: "When stars flicker in a dark background rain or snow follows soon." .' l 0f-< 0 tI:1 p.., :: ..: A 0c; ~ ~ . ~ ....... oS ...... til 0 :::;. ........., d 0 1;4 I WEAlHER PROVERBS 47 FOGS "He thaI would have a bad day mawn gang out in a fog after a frost."-Scottish saying . . Although fogs have furnished only a small part of our traditional weather lore, nevertheless ~hey have inspired a few sayings which, like the one above, are worth remembering. The cause of fog is the cooling of the surface air to " temperature below its dewpoint, that IS, the temperature at which the air is fully saturated by the water vapor present. This decrease in temperature may be caused in several ways. If the skies are clear the surface of the earth loses much heat· by radiation to space, and if, at the same time, there is no wind the atmosphere near the ground often becomes so chilled as to condense some of its vapor onto the myriad millions of dust particles always present, thereby producing fog. This phenomenon is particularly frequent, from midsummer to early autumn along valleys and wherever else on land the lower air is humid and so hedged about that it can not flow away as fast as cooled. Of course there are clear still nights during the winter too, but radiation fogs, as this kind is called, are far more prevalent in the summer time, because the amount of moisture in the 48 WEATHER PROVERBS air, along streams at least, and also the extent of its cooling (number of degrees losty. through the night are much greater then than during the colder season. Another frequent cause of fogs is the flow of humid air over relatively cold surfaces, such as the drifting of on-shore winds over snmv banks; and, during winter, the travel of the rain-carrying, southerly currents to more northerly points across plains and hills of increasing cold. Clearly, then, one might say, in proverb form: A summer fog for fair, A winter fog for rain; A fact most everywhere, In valley and on plain. Obviously, too, whenever the atmosphere beyond a few hundred feet above the earth is comparatively dry a radiation fog is soon cleared away by the warmth of the sunshine and the convective or overturn mixing of the surface and upper layers of air that always occurs on still clear mornings. If, on the contrary, the free air is quite humid through a considerable depth the fog may not evaporate on rising, but hang on hill and mountain tops, merged with a growing cloud that soon brings rain. Hence the proverb: FRACTO-STRATUS, ScUD, :MIST. "When the mist creeps up the hill." ~ :HER PROVERBS • 49 "Mists dispersing on the plain catter away the clouds and rain; ut when they rise to the mountain tops The~ soon descend in copious drops." When a general rain is coming on it often happens that hills and mountains become cloudcapped, and that on the lee sides portions of these clouds are drawn out as scud and dragged to lower levels, where, as a rule, they evaporate. On the other hand, the ending of these storms commonly is accompanied by the onset of cooler, drier, winds from a different direction that drive up the mountains and clear away all remaining fogs and low-lying clouds. In other words: When fog goes up the rain is o'er, When fog comes down '~ rain some more. Or, as the familiar proverb puts it: "When the mist creeps up the hill, Fisher, out and try your skill; When the mist begins to nod, Fisher, then put by your rod." 50 WEATHER PROVltRBS CLOUDS "And now the mists from earth are clouds m eaven." -WnsON. The height, extent and shapes of clouds depend upon the humidity, the temperature, and the motion of the atmosphere; hence they often give reliable warnings of the coming weather. As is well known, clouds are formed mainly by cooling due to ascension of the lower humid. air. The rising air comes under less and less pressure by the weight of the atmosphere left below, hence it as continuously expands against the weight of the air still above, and does this work at the expense of its own heat. High clouds, therefore, having required much cooling to form, obviously do not contain enough humidity to produce any considerable rain or snow. In short, with respect to all cloud forms of the cumulus or wool pack type, at least: "The higher the clouds, the finer the weather." This proverb does not apply to the thin, wispy, cirrus clouds, the highest of all, that float from five to eight miles above sea-Jewel. Part of the air that forms the upward currents in the forward portion of a general or cyclonic storm rises to great heights where, in middle latitudes, it gets into the swift, eastward-moving, 'I CUMULUS . (E. E. fiAR"SAlm, PHoTO.) "And now the mists from earth are clouds in heaven." r:- ~ jl., !'r =t i 1.. i!= tI:: Jj :i .§ d Jj .,; 1Il~ P ] u., -s !J<: .,.. I ~ ~ ~ en p "'p" El u il, :a # 1 ~ :.:~ ;,: "I ::t:: ....; ~ : ;;:: f:lf-< « > l>l ;.: III Cl = 0 0 '" Cl ~ en :::> _, :::> ::l 0 ;;J :.J 0 ~ '"e: >I :_, ~ 0 Q <U ;,: < III _, ;;J ::> :a ::> u ...._,6 -< ~ ~ 0 l51%1 Il< Z ~ -< a ~ ~ :: ~p 1>4 ~ :: 1 ..c -........ III <:.> c:: '! jj '" .... ~-< 2 ;- -£l'" :: .s rJj u ~ '" -1>4 III Eo-< -", ~ l~ rJj p ~ u f -'_ THER PROVERBS S1 ..t; ... da 'that carry it and its ice particles far okhe..rains. There also are other ways hich this kind of cloud is formed, but since theway just plained is very common, and the only the forerunner of a . cirrus thus produ stonn that is comi in the same general direction, it is evident that the following familiar proverbs well deserve a place in our memory: · E "Mackerel scales and mares' tails Make lofty ships carry low sails." "Trace in the sky the painter's brush, The winds around you soon will rush." .I On the front side of a general stonn the lower and upper winds run in more or less different directions. Furthermore, both are humid and often cloudy. Not infrequently too, the lower clouds are so broken that the layer above may also be seen-the two streams rapidly crossing each other. Hence, if one may coin a needed "proverb, " Whene'er the clouds do weave 'Twill storm before they leave. , • On th~ front .ot rainy side of a wide-spread storm th clouds of the humid winds come lower and 10 until the rain begins. Now, it often ~appe that mountain ridges and peaks ar, S2 • J. higher than the base of the rain cloud, ill' whicb, cases these mountain tops become efeuded a few hours before the rain begins. This, in ture, has led to many local sayings in which the name of some particular mountain is used, as, for instance: "When Breedon hill puts on his hat Ye men of the vale beware of that." "When Cheviot ye see put on his cap Of rain ye'II have a wee bit drap." "When Traprain puts on his hat The Lothian lads may look to that." "When Pembroke puts on his cowl, The Dunion on his hood, Then a' the wives of Teviotside, Ken there will be a flood." "When Falkland Hill puts on his cap, The Howe 0' Fife will get a drap; And when the Bishop draws his cowl, Look out for wind and weather foul." Although weather proverbs that refer to the clouding of mountains are peculiarly ~ aapted to a display of parish pride, nevertheles: a few of this class, recognizing the fact that ~here are more m tains than one, are quite gl.mera1 in form. two of the best are: CUJC( "" -)T SHASTA. (cr. A. GILCHRIST, PHOTO.) , f Jmoming mountains, in the evening fountains." !!!cu ~ ~ ..: ~ ..... ..: Z 0 f:: ..: " .s "0 a <II -"I u 2 cu . Z ~ ~ ~ Si !:l0 >< 0.. 0.. oS <II "0 ::I <Ii ,Q D ... ~ ..scu D u cu = :s: :: ,.CI WEATHER PROVERBS 53 "When the mists begin to nod Fisher, then put by your rod." "When the clouds are upon the bills They'll come down by the mills." As everyone knows, who has watched the weather at all closely, small cumulus or woolpack clouds imply fair weather, while a large cumulus often develops a thunderstorm. These clouds, as is also well known, are caused by the rising of air from near the surface to considerable heights and.its consequent cooling, through expansion, to temperatures below the dewpoint. If, now, the decrease of temperature with increase,of elevation is such that large cumuli are formed during the forenoon it is obvious that, owing to further heating of the surface, ascension of the air, and the resulting clouds, will be still greater during the afternoon, and that some of these larger clouds will give rain. Hence those proverbs are well founded that say: . , ''In the morning mountains, In the evening fountains." ''When the clouds appear like rocks and towers The earth'. refreabed by frequent showers." Finally, since the weather varies with, indeed largely depends upon, the direction of the '" 54 WEATHER PROVERBS .' wind, it follows that the "carry," or curre:tt of the clouds, often is good evidence of the kind of weather on the way-foul, commonly, if from the east; fair if from the west. As the proverb puts it: "When the carry goes west, Gude weather is past; When the carry goes east, Gude weather comes neist." RAIN "When God wills, it rains with any wind." -Spams" saying. Whether this Spanish saying is indicative of exceptional piety, or only disgust over the apparent arbitrariness of the weather, may be left to the mood and judgment of the reader. If he happen to be an amateur forecaster, whether from observation of signs or study of a weather map, it is certain that freQ'1ently he will be disposed to accept the second of these interpretations. As we have already seen, ~'ld as will appear in the following pages, there are many good signs ·of rain, but there are very few weather 55 WEATHER PROVERBS signs. to be seen in the rain itself. this is the best: Perhaps "Rain long foretold, long last; Short notice, soon past." That is, 'if for a day or two the clouds have slowly extended and thickened it is probable that the resulting rain will be correspondingly persistent; but if the clouds have gathered rapidly there will be only a passing shower. The first of these processes, the gr~dual increase of cloudiness over a day or two, is typical of the passage of a cyclonic or widespread storm in which the rain usually lasts several hours. Hence the justification of the first portion of the proverb. Similarly, the rapid gathering of rain clouds indicates quick action, such as that of a thundershower or a squall, storms of small extent and, therefore, of short duration. Another well-known rain proverb says: "Sunshine and shower, rain again to-morrow." Obviouf)ly, "sunshine and shower," generally implies rain from a cloud of very limited extent, and rain from so small a cloud implies, in turn, quite humid air and a distribution of temperature favDrable to local ascenSIOns and overturns. Hence, as such conditions commonly 56 WEATHER PROVERBS persist from one to several days, sunshin~ and shower on one day may well be followed by showers the next day. DEW AND FROST "The dews of the evening industriously shun, They're the tears of the sky for the loss of the sun.', -EARL OF CHESTERFffiLD . • The amount of invisible water vapor a given space can contain increases rapidly with the temperature, and decreases just as rapidly with loss of temperature. A familiar and excellent example of this fact is seen in the "sweating" of the ice-pitcher-deposition of moisture from the cooled atmosphere onto the sides of the vessel. This sweating is owing entirely to the cooling of the adjacent vapor (the presence of the other gases of the atmosphere does not affect the result) below the dewpoint, or te~ perature at which the water vapor present is just sufficient to produce saturation.) Clearly, then, for each given amount of moisture in the air per cubic foot, say, there is a particular temperatur~ below which all exposed objects, no matter by what process they hcl,Ve been cooled, become more or less wet with the con- WEATHER PROVERBS 57 densa.tion of this moisture onto their surfaces. Clearly, too, the lower the temperature reached the greater the amount of water deposited. Now, every. object is always losing heat by radiation and, at the same time, gaining heat by absorption of radiation from surrounding objects. A good radiator therefore, such as a growing leaf, loses heat rapidly. If at the same time it is exposed to a cloudless night sky, and if there is but little humidity in the atmosphere, the return radiation that may be absorbed is comparatively small, for dry air is a very poor radiator. In this case the leaf, say, cools, unless its temperature is otherwise kept up, until its enfeebled radiation drops down to equality with its absorption. One way of keeping up this temperature is to bring fresh uncooled air (air of itself does not cool rapidly) in contact with the radiating object. Thus, if the object in question is a leaf on a tree the' air in contact with it trickles down immediately it is slightly cooled and thereby causes un cooled air to take its· place and to prevent the leaf from becoming nearly so ~old as it otherwise would. Similarly, any appreciable wind stirs up the air through so great a depth that even grass is prevented from greatly cooling by the constant supply of relati-vely uncooled air. 58 WEATHER PROVERBS Hence, when the air is dry, the .sky ~lear, and there is no wind, the temperature of the grass falls many degrees, except on hillsides where the chilled surface air cal\, drain away. Usually, too, this chilling is well below the current saturation temperature, and hence much dew is deposited. If, however, the sky is clouded, or if the air is quite humid, there will be a relatively large amount of return radiation, for both the clouds and the water vapor are good radiators, and the grass will not cool very much, even during the stillest night, nor, therefore, will much if any dew be deposited. In short, then, dew forms abundantly only when the condition of the air is such that rain can hardly occur; and, on still nights, fails to appear only when the conditions are such that rain is probable. Obviously, all the above- discussion of dew applies equally to frost, for temperature alone determines whether the deposit shall be the one or the other-dew if the temperature is above the freezing point, frost if it is below the freezing <} point. There is, therefore, ample justification for the following proverbs: "Heavy frosts generally are followed by fine clear weather." WEATHER PROVERBS 59 "When the grass is dry at morning light Look for rain before the night." "When the dew is on the grass Raw will never come to pass." As these proverbs are particularly helpful, a briefer version of them is also suggested, since the shorter forms may be easier to rememJ:ler: When the morn is dry The rain is nigh. When the morn is wet No rain you get. WIND "Every wind has its weather." -BACON. The prevailing direction of the wind in middle latitudes is from west to east, rotlghly. Winds of any different direction and, especially, shifting "Winds, imply a storm disturbance of some kind. For instance, the cyclone, or region of low atmospheric pressure, is always accompanied by a system of winds directed spirally inwards. and counterclockwise (in the northern hemisphere, clockwise in the southern) about the 60 WEATHER PROVERBS center. Now, this wind system almost invariably moves eastward, and is nearly always accompanied by precipitation on its front side, and clearing weather to its rear. " Hence, as the storm approaches, the weather glass (barometer) falls-the pressure of the atmosphere becomes less-and the wind backs, that is, the direction from which it comes slowly changes during a few hours in a counterclockwise direction; and as the storm recedes the barometer rises and the wind veers, as we say, or comes from a point that shifts clockwise. The above facts fully justify the proverb that says, "When the wind backs and the weather glass falls Then be on your guard against gales and squalls." The falling of the pressure, as indicated by the barometer, or weath~r glass, and the backing of the wind, are together almost certain evidence of an approaching cyclonic storm. "A veering wind, fair weather; A backing wind, foul weather." ~ As above explained, the wind backs as a cyclonic storm approac,hes, and veers'\ as it recedes; hence, both portions of this proverb are fully sustained. 0 WEATHER PROVERBS ~1 "When the smoke goes west, Gude weather is past; When the smoke goes east, Gude'weather comes neist." • That is, when the wind is from the east a storm is close at hand, as already explained, but is past and gone when the wind gets back from the west. "When the wind is in the south, The rain's in its mouth." The southeast section of a cyclonic storm, the section in which the wind is from the south is, as a rule, a rainy region. Here the winds are warmest, and, commonly, the most humid; besides, these are the winds that, owing to their trend, over a considerable area, towards a common point-their convergence-and the presence in front of them of colder, denser air are forced to rise and thereby produce cloud and precipitation. "The wind from the north-east, Neither good for man nor beast." This wind obviously is cold, and, being cauqed, as a rule, by an approaching storm, is almost certain to bring disagreeable rain or snow. "The wind in the west Suits everyone best." 62 WEATHER PROVERBS This is because such winds are apt to be gentle, and seldom accompanied by precipitation. "Do business with men when the wind is ill the n0:tthwest." This bit of ancient wisdom is based on the fact that these winds, being cool, dry, and bracing, stimulate courage and zest-giv~ "pep" as the athlete and t'he sportsman would put it. The following three sayings which have no relation to the above, nor to each oth.er , are also worth quoting. "A high wind prevents frost." It crIb-a {Treverrt:::> dew~ crad Iur dre- SCfIl"fe' reason, viz., because it continuously brings frlesh air to the surface of the earth and thereby Prevents the cooling of the grass and other such objects to temperatures below the current dewpoint. • "The whispering grove tells of a storm to com~." "Nor less I fear from that hoarse, hollow roar In leafy groves and on the sounding shore." -LUCAN, Rowe's t~an."lation. During fair weather the winds are toc) light, usually, to produce the familiar rustle of Ileaves and aeolian sighing of twigs and branches. The "whispering grove" implie;,), considerable WEATHER PROVERBS 63 wind, and. this, in turn, conditions that: immediately precede and accompany gener;:tl, or cyclonic, storms. "The wind.s of the daytime wrestle and fight Longer and stronger than those of the night." This is because the lower air, the movernents of which constitute the winds we experience, is more mixed with the swifter upper air during the day when ascension and overturning, incident to surface heating by the sun, is strong, than it is at night when such overturning, or vertical convection, is relatively feeble. BAROMETER "The hollow winds begin to blow, The clouds look black, the glass is low." -DR. 'E. DARWnJ (?). It would be hard to find a surer sign of rain than the above, if we except the old Indian sign our grand... dads used to tell us about-"doudy all around and pouring down in the middle." Although the barometer is of the greatest value as an indicator of the coming weatper it has inspired but few proverbs. Perhaps this is the best: 64 WEATHER PROVERBS "When the glass falls low, Prepare for a blow; When it rises high, Let all your kites fly." This proverb is based on the fact" that no considerable decrease of atmospheric pressure ever occurs except in connection with a general storm; nor markedly high pressure except in connection with fair weather. The state and behavior of the barometer is much more significant, however, when observed in connection with the winds. Thus a falling . pressure and backing winds, that is, winds shifting counterclockwise, as from southwest, south, southeast, east, etc., together imply an approaching storm. As the proverb says: "When the wind backs and the weather glass falls, Then be on your guard against gales and sqmills." The various other joint indications of wind and barometer have not been clothed in proverb style, but have been assembled, stripped to th~ bone, in concise tables of reference. One of the fullest and most reliable tables of this kind was prepared by the late E. B. .tlGarriott, of the U. S. Weather Bureau, and i~ substantially as follows. On the whole it is the best weather guide an isolated observer, provi ded with a barometer of any kind, mercurial or aner·oid, has ever had: n WEATHER SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UNITED STATES OF BARO:!ol:'LTER AND WIND DIRECTION BAROMETER WIND FROM WEATHER INDICATED High aond steady SWtoNW High and rising rapidly SW toNW High and falling slowly Very high, falling slowly SW toNW SW toNW High and falling slowly High and faIling rapidly S to SE S to SE High and falling slowly High and falling rapidly SE toNE SE toNE High and falling slowly E to NE High and falling rapidly E toNE Low and falling slowly SE to NE Low and falling rapidly SE to NE Low and rising slowly S to SW Low and falling rapidly S to SE Low and falling rapidly E to N Fair and little temperature change for one to two days Fair followed by warmer and rain within two days Rain in 24 to 36 hours Fair and slowly rising temperature for two days Rain within 24 hours Increasing wind with rain in 12 to 24 hours Rain in 12 to 18 hours Increasing wind with rain in 12 hours Summer and light winds, fair; winter, rain in 24 hours Summer, rain in 12 to 24 hours; winter, rain or snow with increasing winds . Rain will continue one or tW9 days Rain and high wind; clearing and cooler in 24 hours Clearing soon and fair several days Severe storm soon, clearing and cooler in 24 hours Northeast gales with heavy rain or snow, followed in winter by cold wave Clearing and colder Low and rising'rapidl}" ,. . Going to W " 65. 66 WEATHER PROVERBS THUNDER "The winds grow high; Impending tempests charge the sky; The lightning flies, the thunder roalS; And big waves lash the frightened shores." -PRIoR. Although thunder is one of the most con- . spicuous of all weather phenomena it has but little value as an indicator of coming weather, and hence has evoked very few proverbs It occasionally happens that a want· ,pell of weather in the spring of the year is .~.ken by squalls and thunderstorms incident (just how would require too much digression to explain) to the onset of a cold wave. Now this late cold wave checks the budding of fruit trees and delays their flowering, and the putting forth of all tender vegetation, until after the probable date of the last killing frost. Clearly, then, the following proverbs are reasonable: ''Thunder in spring Cold will bring." "Thunder in March betokeneth a fruitful year." Thunderstorms, as is well known, are due to that convection, or upward movement, of humid air that produces the towering ~ulus cloud. • 67 WEATHER PROVERBS Now., this convection commonly IS distinctly more vigorous over land during the afternoon than in the morning. Hence, if the conditions of the atmosphere permit a thunderstorm in the forenoon they are apt to be even more favorable to rain in the afternoon. That IS, as a rule, perhaps, "When it thunders in the morning it will rain before night." SOUND "There is a sound of abundance of rain." -ELIJAn. As a general or cyclonic storm approaches, the sky invariably becomes clouded over and the air grows more and more humid. The first of these conditions, that is, the cloudiness, prevents the formation of new inequalities of density and the setting up of further convection, while the second aids in the smoothing out of any temperature differences that previously may have been present, and which, as Tyndall showed many years ago, greatly dissipate sound and limit the distance to which it can be heard. On the approach of a storm, then, the sounddissipating irregularities of the atmosphere, so 68 WEATHER PROVERBS common and numerous on clear days, pt;actically all disappear. Hence there is good reason to accept the proverb that says: "Sound travelling far and wide A stormy day will betide." • Another herald of the approaching general storm is the increase of the wind in the upper levels and its gradual extension to lower and lower air. Hence, among forested mountains, especially "In winter, when the dismal rain Comes down in slanting lines, And Wind, that grand old harper, smites His thunder-harp of pines,"-ALEXANDER SMITH. when the muffling leaves are gone and the twigs are free to mingle their myriad aeolian tones, the coming storm is heralded by the murmuring of the forest and the roarmg of the mountain. In proverb form: When the forest murmurs, and the mountain roars, Then close your windows and shut your doors. WEATHER PROVERBS 69 ST. ELMO'S FIRE "Sometimes I'd divide And burn in many places; on the topmast, The yard~ and bowsprit, would I flame distinctly, Then meet and join." -SHAKESPEARE. From the time, perhaps, the first mariner sailed the seas, and certainly through all the long years of ancient Greece and Rome, the Middle Ages, and down to the present, St. Elmo's fires, those strange heatless flames that on darkest and dread est nights top the masts and tip the spars, have been objects of the sailor's awe and superstition-the souls, some say, of drowned seamen come to warn their mates of a pending storm and possible wreck. But the sailor's storm experience is sounder than his spiritualistic training! St. Elmo's fires are not the kindly souls of sailors lost in some awful tempest, and yet they do often warn of a coming storm. They are indeed nothing but electric manifestations due to the highly charged condition~ incident to thunderstorms, of the -passing clouds and upper air, a condition that causes tall objects whether on land or sea to flare with a continuous coronal or brush discharge. Clearly, then, in the experience of the mariner~ they are most common on the warmer 70 WEATHER PROVERBS oceans (actually more frequent still on.moun,tain peaks) and since they indicate the prevalence of thunderstorms we may well agree that the following conclusion is in accord with experience and not, as some would tell us, merely prompted by superstition: "Last night I saw Saint Elmo's stars, With their glittering lanterns all at play, On the tops of the masts and the tips of the spars, And I knew we should have foul weather today." TIDE "The punctual tide draws up the bay With ripple of wave and hiss of spray." -SUSAN COOLIDGE. The tide indeed is punctual, depending as ~it does on the positions of the sun and the moon, and can be predicted, even reeled off with amazing accuracy by a machine, for years ahead. Storms, on the other hand, are utterly irregular~ They come on any day of ,the we.ek and any hour of the day, without solar, lunar, planetary, stellar or other control that can impose upon them even a semblance of punctuality. Nothing is more certain than the times of the tides, and nothing more uncertain than WEATHER PROVERBS 71 the pay and the hour of a storm, and yet many a keenly observant coast man-boatman, fisherman-not only believes, but positively knows, that: "Showers are most frequent at the turn of the tide," and that "Storms burst as the tides turn." And they are right. To them, as to most of us, the tide is only the flooding and ebbing of the c~astal water whenever it may occur and whatever the cause. Now, nearly all storms including thundershowers, are associated with changes, especially decreases, in the atmospheric pressure; and this change of air pressure frequently is the equivalent of more than a foot of water. Hence, as the local pressure of the air grows less or greater the level of the ocean at that place must become cprrespondingly higher or lower, respectively-as the barometer goes down the tide must flow; as the barometer rises the tide must ebb, unless, in each case, the joint lunar and solar control happens to be in the opposite sense and more compelling. In short, the low barometer and the storm are inseparably associated, and the low air pressure .leads at once to the inflow of a compensatins weight of water. These irregular 72 w~~rHER PROVERBS "tides" are caused by the very condition Jhat is also the direct cause of the storm. Of course, then, storms are most frequent with such tides as these, or, in the words of the multitude, to whom a tide'is a tide, be the flow when or what it may, "rain is most frequent at the turn of the tide." ODORS "A very ancient and fish-like smell." -SHAKESPEARE. The above quotation describes the kind of odors that enable some sensitive noses to "smell" rain. How it all comes about is simple enough. Decaying organic matter in stagnant ponds and ditches and undrained fetid swamps produces much foul gas that accumulates in bubbles under the mud. Now, the approaching storm is, as we know, immediately preceded, and accompanied, by a considerable decrease of the atmospheric ·pressure. This in turn'lessens the pressure on the mud-imprisoned bubbles of putrid gas, allowing them to expand, break loose, and come to the surface in correspondingly increased numbers, numbers that occasionally render the local atmosphere perceptibly offensive. WEATHER PROVERBS 73 1<rom these reasons it is clear that one would be more or less justified in saying, if he wished, When the ditch and the pond offend the nose Then look for rain and stormy blows. SPRINGS AND WELLS A rising well and a gushing spring Are two good signs of the very same thing. -Nonce jinr)e. And that same thing is a coming storm, as many an observer has learned from the beginning of time. The average spring and the average well respond indeed scarcely at all to the passing storm, however severe, but there are others of each that behave in a most remarkable manner. Such wells rise perceptibly higher, and a few become evert ebullient and noisy, on the approach of a general rain, while the sensitive springs flow more freely. Some springs indeed after having gone entirely dry • will start afresh even hours before the rain of the exciting storm begins. The causes of these strange phenomena are very simple. During dry weather the underground water caverns and channels become more or less 74 WEATHER PROVERBS drained and filled with air, or other· gas, ,that has slowly filtered in; leaving, however, the exit into the well or spring still filled with water, whether flowing feebly or e.ntirely stagnant. In any such case the entrapped air within the caverns and crevices is in pressure equilibrium, through the intervening water, with the atmosphere outside. Now, a general storm, as any meteorologist can tell us, is always accompanied by a decided drop in the atmospheric pressure, and this drop usually extends far ahead of the rain. Clearly, then, this decrease in the outside pressure that precedes a general rain allows the entrapped air to drive, in unwonted volumes, the remaining underground water into the wells and out of the springs. A cavern that happens to be empty, or nearly so, and near the outlet, will, of course, give off a stream of bubbles, a fact that explains the ebullition and noise of some wells on the approach of a storm. If, on the other hand, all the caverns and crevices are full of water changes of the outside, or atmospheric, pressti're cannot affect the height of the well or flow of the spring, for there are then no entrapped cushions of air to respond to the external conditions. Hence the sensitive wells and springs are sensitive only during the drier seasons. WEATHER PROVERBS 7S In" the· cases, then, of our best barometer wells and occasional predicting springs, fc>r both of which there should be proverbs, but are not, we might truthfully say: Very well we know, When a well doth well, A rain and a blow It doth foretell. When the spring that's low Begins to flow; Then sure, we know, 'Twill rain or snow. HAIRS, STRINGS, AND OTHER THINGS "But I know ladies by the score Whose hair, like seaweed, scents the storrP; Long, long before it starts to pour Their locks assume a baneful form." ·-HERBEttT. A great many substances, both orga(1ic and inorganic are more or less hygroscopic, That is, they absorb moisture in proportion to the dampness or humidity of the atmosppere to which they are exposed. Now the atmosphere is comparatively dry, as a rule, duripg fair weather, but becomes more and more humid as a general storm approaches. Hence any 76 WEATHER PROVERBS hygroscopic substance may be used to give some indication. through its change in length, size, weight, feel, or other property, of the coming weather. Thus ordinary tabl~ salt grows heavier and more inclined to pack, cordage becomes tighter, doors and windows harder to open and shut, strings of whipcord more tightly twisted, curly hair more unruly still, and a thousand other like annoyances more and more pronounced as the air grows damper and the storm comes closer. As one might put it, there being no old, appropriate proverb, Curls that kink and cords that bind; Signs of rain and heavy wind. It was in humorous recognition of this class of weather signs that The Propheteers, one of Punch's cleverest poems, was written: THE ;I'ROPHETEERS* (With apologies to the Meteorological Office) In some high mansion, I suppose, The weather-men confront the stars, Giving "the glass" tremendous blows And drinking deep at isobars; And, though I love the language of their art And all those little arrows on the chart, There is a thing that jars. * Reprinted by the kind permission of the proprietors of Punch. WEATHER PROVERBS ,It is the case\that human brain Can trace the heavenly secrets so, The cyclones rushing round in Spain Or bearing down on Pimlico, And if we'll want our flannels or our furs, By simply studying barometers- .Can we believe it? No. But I know ladies by the score Whose hair, like seaweed, scents the storm; Long, long before it starts to pour Their locks assume a baneful form; Ah, who has not with Muriel rejoiced One morning when her hair was much less moist, Meaning it must be warm? And I believe, with brush and comb, Some damsel in an inner shrine Sits always at the prophet's home While sages all around recline, Or wait with reverence on the outer mat Until in ecstasy she pins a plait And shrieks, "It will be filJ.e." Then haste they to the great high-priest And scribble down the mystic rune, "An anti-cyclone, moving East, Will stabilise conditions soon; An inch of sunshine has occurred in Hants;" Whereat the whole world puts on thinner pants, And practises the swoon. 77 78 WEATHER PROVERBS But when they hear the sibyl chant, "All colourless, and feels like clay, All straight and horrible- I can't Do nothing with my hair today!" Then write they down, "A deep depression runs South-west from Iceland-secondary ones Are busy in the Bay." Think of the powers of that young girl, And how much destiny must hinge On whether she can get a curl To come in her confounded fringe! Ah, what, I wonder, would the nation do Suppose one dlJ.y she took a wet shampoo Or went and had a singe! And if at times the forecasts sing Of heat and sun and anticycs Anr;l we, in fact, get no such thing, But rain enough to bust the dykes, Well, even oracles are much like men, And I suppose that that's what happens when The Sibyl simply strikes. -LT. A. P. HERBERT, R.N.V. SMOKE "You k'n hide de fier, but w'at you gwine do wid de smoke?" -JOEL CHANDLER HARRIS. In this particular case we are going to use it as a weather sign, just as our ancestors have done since first they began building fires. WEATHER PROVERBS 79 Essentially, smoke is only a cloud of fine, unburned, 'soot, charcoal, or carbon particl~s, 'carried up with the hot air over the fire, together with a small amount of mineral ash. All. these particles, of whatever nature, becon1e moisture-laden in a humid atmosphere, such as commonly precedes a general rain, and slowly descend. If the air is dry the smoke particles condense upon themselves little or no moistur"e, remain light and soon become so scatter~d through the atmosphere as to be no longer perceptible. Indeed if the wind is at all strong, smoke is soon widely scattered and lost, wha.tever the humidity. When, then, the movement of the wind is slow, the sky so covered with clouds as to prevent ascension of the lower air (due to sU.rface heating) and the humidity high (both the latter usual pre-storm conditions) smoke, after rising a short distance with the heated air, drifts away in a rather compact, slowly descending, stream. Hence, often before a rain, when the conditions are right, and as a sign of its coming., "The smoke from chimneys right ascends, Then spreading back to earth it bends." 80 WEATHER PROVERBS PLANTS "Pimpernel, pimpernel, tell me true Whether the weather be fine or no." A similar appeal might, with equally good reason, be made to the dandelion, the red clover, the silver maple, and numerous other plants and trees, all of which commonly undergo some change, such as the closing of their flowers or an alteration in the attitude of their leaves, on the approach of rain. Hence we say: "When leaves show their under sides, Be very sure that rain betides." This hanging of the leaves so as to show their under sides, when viewed laterally, or at a distance, is owing to changes in the leaf stalk ~n the absorption of moisture. Similarly, all the noticeable plant changes on which weather predictions can rationally be based are owing to variations in humidity, temperature, and sunshine. But however interesting, especially to the student of plant physiology, plant signs generally are but poor guides to a knowledge of the coming weather. WEATHER PROVERBS 81 BIRDS AND BEASTS "She [the goose] is no witch, or astrologer, to divine by the starres, but yet hath a shrewd guess of rainie weather, bcing as good as an almanack to some that believe in her."---Old Book, 1634. . The scientific spirit of caution shown in this quotation is most commendable. Indeed anyone who wishes a probably correct forecast of the coming weather should pay no attention whatever to the almanac, and almost as little to the behavior of animals. Nevertheless, proverb literature contains page after page of weather signs based on the behavior of living creatures, from the bray of the jackass to the bite of the flea. Typical of the extravagant tributes to animals as weather prophet? is this one to the pig, in which he is credited with actually seeing the wind-a one-time common belief: "Grumphie smells the weather, An' Grumphie sees the wun'; He kens when clouds will gather, An' smoor the blinkin' sun." Of course the degree of humidity, the temperature, the brightness of the sunshine, the strength of the wind, and all other weather states, d,O more or less affect the behavior of 82 WEATHER PROVERBS many animals. Horses do sweat on hot, humid days-so do human beings; when the au . very damp the hound dog is lazier, if possible, than usual; toads and snails do copte out more when the sky is clouded and the air very damp than on dry sunshiny days; and so on through an endless list-actions, all of them, of th~ greatest interest to the physiologist, but com monly of little worth as weather signs. HES AND PAINS "As old sinners have all points 0' th' compass in their bones and joints." -BUTJ.D. It is well recognized, and attested by a family of proverbs, that those who are annoyed by rheumatic pains, as also the dyspeptic and . the neurasthenic, often are more than usually troubled by their ills at the near approach of rainy and generally bad weather. It was for this reason that the wise, though, we may suspect, not oVerjoyful, editor dedicated his almanac to "Torpid Liver and Inflammatory Rm:umatism, the most insistent weather prophets known to suffering niortall." For the eame :reason, " WEATHER PROVERBS 83 too, ~some unhappy proverb maker complained that "A coming "torm your shooting corns presage, And aches will throb, your hollow tooth will rage." However, such disagreeable signs are not universally available, for, fortunately, there are those who, like Tam O'Shanter, "never mind the storm a whistle." Therefore, while the influences of the weather and its changes on our feelings are worthy of careful study by both the physiologist and the psychologist, such phenomena are of only secondary value as a popular means of weather prognostication. Besides, it is a method not assiduously cultivated. In fact, those who are provided with this particular means to a weather prescience would gladly be rid of it, while those who know it not believe, as well they may, in the old adage that says: "Where ignorance is bliss, 'tIs folly to be wise." PART II Meteorological Paradoxes INTRODUCTION The scientific paradox is only an exception to some familiar bu~ too inclusive generalization. It, therefore~ has both the appeal of the riddle and the charm of surprise-the surprise, the instant the truth is seen, of a sudden and unexpected discovery-and thus affords the same sort of intellectual delight that a certain student of geometry once experienced. The proposition, one of Euclid's best, was the Pythagorean, often carelessly called the pons asinorum. The boy in question was of that sturdy type that always insists on being "shown," and not understanding this propo~tion, flatly refused to accept it. A little coaching at the blackboard, however, soon got him past his initial difficulties, and so fixed his attention that as the truth flashed upon him with the final "therefore," he blurted out, in the ecstatic surprise of an Archimedes, and with the same oblivion to his surroundings, "Well, I'll be damned if it ain't so." Wheth~r the following paradoxes do or do not evoke such joyous acclamations as the one just quoted, they, nevertheless, deserve to be concisely stated and fully explained for they express important facts of nature, unknown to, or, at most, but vaguely realized by, the average person. 87 88 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES AIR PUSHED NORTH BLOWS· EASa' This paradoxical behavior of the air is restricted, it should be said, to the northern hemisphere; but it seems just as contrarious on the other side of the equator, for there, pushed north it blows west, pushed south it blows east. The push that causes the winds to blow is due to the existence of unequal amounts of air above a given level over adjacent regionsmore at the plac~ from which the air is pushed than at the place towards which it is pushedand this in turn, usually, is due to the temperature differences, level for level, between the atmosphere at the two places. Obviously there tends to be, and, initially, actually is, a horizontal flow of the air (that is, a wind) at each level, in the direction of the most rapid horizontal decrease of pressure at that level. Such winds, however, frequently last so long (hours at least) that their directions are profoundly altered by a certain obscure factor, namely, the rotation of the earth-the secret of fhe above paradox-which is overlooked by almost everyone, and overlooked simply because its effect on the shooting of a marble, the pitching of a ball, and all the thousand other similar phenomena with which we are intimately familiar, METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 89 is always negligible. Nevertheless, this effect is ever present and much like, however feeble, that which one experiences on walking, or trying to walk, from. the center to the edge of a revolving turntable. It is easy to demonstrate, as may be found in many books and articles, that an object moving in any horizontal direction tends so strongly to turn to the right north of the equator, and to the left south of it, as to exert a force, d, against a restraint preventing such deflection, given by the equation d = 2mwv sin l in which m is the mass of the object, v its speed, l its latitude, and w the angular velocity of the earth's rotation. Consider, then, the effect of applying a horizontal push of constant magnitude and constant geographic direction to a mass of air, m, and assume this air to be free from friction, as it very nearly is when 1500 to 2000 feet above the surface. Let m, figure 1, be this mass of air, initially at rest with reference to the surface of the earth; let it be in the northern hemisphere, and let p be the push of constant magnitude and constant direction, north. As the mass moves it is simultaneously deflected by the force d, explained above, from the north 90 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES towards the east, and, owing to the 'curvature of its path, a small centrifugal force is introduced. A little later, p may be resolved, as shown, into two components, oneenormal and the other tangential to the path of travel. The first, like the deflective force d and the d p m p FIG. 1. How AIR PUSHED ONE WAY BLOWS ANOTImR centrifugal force, has no effect on tItt speed, being at right angles to the direction of 1l1otion, while the second continuously increases the speed, which, in turn, increases the deflective force, and the deviation towards the east. In the end, therefore, the component of P along METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 91 the path is reduced to zero, and the direction of travel becomes exactly east with the push . p and the deflective force d equal to each other. Hence winds. that are continuous for even a few hours always blow more or less closely along isobars, or paths of equal pressure, at a constant height above sea level; hence at right angles to, and not in the direction of, the sustaining force-around centers of pressure minima and maxima and not directly towards or from them. No matter, therefore, how paradoxical it may be, air pushed north does blow east (in the northern hemisphere), pushed east it blows south, pushed south blows west, pushed west blows north; while in the southern hemisphere it blows exactly contrariwise. RAIN DRIES THE AIR As everyone knows, there is !=ontinuous and often rapid evaporation from practically all parts of the eart.h's surface-oceans, seas, lakes, rivers, damp soil, and growing vegetation. Nevertheless, the atmosphere as a whole never becomes even approximately saturated. Water, indeed, is always evaporating into the air and thus constantly tending to saturate it; but, on the 92 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES other hand, the air also is forever being gried by the precipitation out of it of rain, snow, and other forms of condensation. Whatever the temperature and relative hu,midity of a given mass of air on reaching any given place along its convectional route, the total of water vapor it may then contain obviously is less, in general, than when it last left the surface of the earth by the amount of precipitation in the meantime abandoned by it. That is, on the average, air descends to the earth drier than it was when it ascended, and drier solely because of, and in proportion to, the amount of precipitation that fell out of it during its convectional journey. In short, as the paradox puts it, rain does dry the air-does prevent it from becoming and remaining everywhere reekingly and intolerably humid, as it otherwise would be. MORE AIR GOES UP THAN EVER COMES DOWN This is, perhaps, about as incredible a paradox as can be found, for it seems flatly to contravene the well known dictum that whatever goes up must come down. And, indeed, to make the explanation of it entirely clear METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 93 and, definite, it will be necessary to c()nsider it independently under each of two distinct conditions: (a) that the air is measured in terms of volume, apd (b) that it is measured in terms qf mass. Measured in terms of volume. As everyone knows, the vertical circulation of the atmosphere is only a gravitational phenomenon consisting of the sinking of relatively den~e, because relatively cold, air, and the conSequent lifting or forcing up by it of adjacent air that happens to be comparatively warm and light. In short, contracted air descends and expanded air ascends (is buoyed up by the descending denser (iir). Hence, mass for mass, the volume of the ascending air is always larger than that of the descending air. The ratio between the actual ascending and descending volumes, however, or masses, may be anything, as illu~trated by chimney circulation in which the ascent is restricted to a comparatively small volunle and mass moving rapidly, while the descent extends to a relatively large volume and mass settling slowly. On the average, though, considering both velocity of vertical movement and volume occupied, or velocity times volume, the atmosphere as a whole is always ascending, a fact not only interesting itself, but also of some importance to both the balloonist and the aviator. 94 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES Measured in terms of mass. Whatever the volume relations between ascending and ~ descending air may be, it would seem that at least the mass that goes up and the ma~s that eventually ,. returns must certainly be the same. But, on the contrary, they indeed are far from it, for one of the important constituents of the atmosphere, water vapor, often amounting in places to 1 per cent, and occasionally to more than 2 per cent of the whole, invariably ascends as a gas, as a distinct part and parcel of the air; but descends, in great measure, not as a gas at all, not as any part whatever of toe air, but as a liquid in the form of rain, or a solid, such as snow, and hail. Paradoxical, therefore, as it may be, a greater mass of air actually goes up-more by at least sixteen million tons per second, the measure of world-wide precipitation-than ever comes doWIl. TO COOL AIR, HEAT IT The air referred to in this seemingly absurd statement is not that topsy-turvy kind Alice might have found in Wonderland, but just that ordinary kind in which we have always lived; and the phenomenon itgelf, however contrary 95 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES to experience it may seem, one of great importance and almost continuous occurrence. " METERS 1300 'A 1200 '-.A 1100 ' E. "1'\ i' 1000 900 "1'~" , 800 W "", ,<',", , '" 700 ,,~ 600 I-- , ,'\.~ 500 j '~ " w' "-1\, -C'" 400 1', 300 ~, 200 :," E" 100 ,S-, ,8 ~ 0 a 2 1 ~ FIG. 2. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 II VERTICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS OF FREE 12 I DEGREES CENTIGRADE AIR This paradoxical result is easy to explain ''lith a diagram. To this end let AB and A'B', figure 2, be two adiabatic gradients of the 96 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES free air; that is, let each indicate a temperC),ture change of 1°C. for every 100 meters change in elevation (1°F. for every 182 feet)-approximately the relation between the. temperature and elevation of a rising or falling mass of air that during its travel neither gains heat from, nor loses it to, any outside object, such as the surrounding atmosphere. Let EE be any actual temperature gradient (nearly always less than the adiabatic), in this case 1°C. per 120 meters change of elevation. If, then, under these conditions, a mass of air having the temperature and elevation indicated by G' , say, of the figure, be heated 1°C., or shifted in the figure to W', it will correspondingly expand and consequently be forced up by the surrounding denser airwill ascend, as we say. As it rises, it will cool, by expansion, along the adiabatic gradient A'B', and, therefore, will come into equilibrium with the surrounding atmosphere where this gradient intersects the actual gradient EE, or at the level and temperature indicated by W. Clearly, then, under the assumed conditions, such as are very common in nature, a mass of air heated 1°C. (1.8°F.) rises 600 meters (1968 feet), and in so doing cools 6°C., or to a temperature soc. lower than it had before it was heated. Of course, the warm air does not rise strictly adiabatically, though probably very nearly so; METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 97 but in so. far as it actually does lose heat it comes to equilibrium at a correspondingly lower level and warmer temperature. I t is precisely this paradoxical process of cooling by heating, the heating being mainly at the surface, however, that leads to the formation of cumulus clouds and generates the familiar "heat" thunderstorm. In fact, it is quite possible to produce a cumulus cloud, and even a local shower, through the action of a large surface fire. In the case of a forest fire it should be noted that though the combustion adds, by the chemical actions involved, much water vapor to the air, in weight five-ninths, roughly, that of the fuel, even when it is the driest of wood, nevertheless, the cumulus cloud over the fire is due, essentially, to the expansional or dynamical cooling of the ascending air. TO WARM AIR, COOL IT This pa.radox is the converse of the one just discussed, and is readily explained in much the same way. Referring again to figure 2, let a mass of free air having the altitude and temperature indicated by W in the figure, be cooled 1°C., or its position shifted to C. It will at 98 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES once become denser than it was, follow~ the adiabatic gradient, AB, as it falls to lower levels, and, therefore,' come to rest at the level . and temperature indicated by a, or at the intersection of the adiabatic gradient followed and the existing gradient. That is, as a result of the initial cooling of 1°C., the given mass of air will fall 600 meters and become SoC. warmer than it was before it was first cooled. In so far, however, as the falling air gains heat from the surrounding .warmer atmosphere, it will come to rest at a correspondingly greater elevation and lower temperature. This paradoxical phenomenon of warming by cooling is very frequently and very prettily illustrated by the evening disappearance of small detached clouds, such as alto-cumuli, fracto-stratus, etc. As soon as the sun has set, these clouds and, through them, the air in which they are enmeshed, cool more rapidly than does the surrounding clear atmosphere. They, therefore, are dragged to lower levels by the falling air where they warm up to higher temperatures than they originally had, and evaporate. It will be interesting, in this connection, to note the logical effect of a certain ingenious,. often proposed, and at least once experimentally tried, m~thod of artificially inducing rainfall, METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 99 nam~ly, the liberal sprinkling of a cloud mass with liquid air. The result is, of course, an initial cooling of the cloud, followed, as above explained, by its fall to a lower level and its consequent much greater warming. Instead of rain being induced by this process, as its many inventors would confidently expect, the chilled cloud is certain to grow warmer and diminish in size, and, if considerably chilled may grow so much warmer as to disappear entirely. Indeed, this particular liquid air scheme is not a rainmakiIt'"g process at all, but, on the contrary, a rain deterrent! NOT AIR THAT IS HEATED, BUT AIR THAT IS NOT HEATED, IS THEREBY WARMED This particular paradox may ~uggest the superiority of "absent treatment;" nevertheless, it is perfectly sound. Heated air, as we know, is ,.driven up by the surrounding denser air, and cooled by its resulting expansion, but the air that drives it does so by itself dropping to a lower level, where it is more or less compressed and correspondingly warmed. In other words, while the particular air that was heated 100 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES rises and gets colder than it was initially, other air that was not heated at all falls lower and thus gets warmer. It is not the air that is heated, but air that is not heated, that gets warmer. NOT AIR THAT IS CHILLED, BUT AIR THAT IS NOT CHILLED, IS THEREBY COOLED The explanation of this paradox is very similar to that of the one just given, and is equally simple. As the chilled air descends, certain other air is thereby raised and, by its consequent expansion, cooled. That is, while the particular air that was cooled descends and thus gets warmer than it was originally, other air that was not chilled at all is forced up, expands, and gets colder. It is not the air that is chilled (unless it happens to be on or near the surface of the earth, where it cannot fall to a low:er level) but air that is not chilled, 'that. gets colder. METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 101 MQCING BRINGS THE AIR TO A NONUNIFORM TEMPERATURE To the laboratorian, familiar with beakers and calorimeters'; to the housewife, skilled in the art of the cups and the kettles; and to all the rest of us, nothing is more certain-nothing more in accord with daily experience-than that vigorous stirring establishes a uniform temperature throughout the agitated medium. And indeed this conclusion is quite correct in respect to the particular things we are likely to have in mind, but it does not apply to the open atmosphere. In fact if the temperature of the atmosphere were uniform through any considerable altitude, a complete stirring of it would immediately destroy this uniformity. Let, then, the atmosphere, whatever its initial temperature distribution, be thoroughly mixed without the addition or subtraction of heat. This will bring it into such state (that of neutral equilibrium) that any portion of it on being moved to a different place without the addition or subtmction of heat on the way will, on arriving at that place, have the same temperature as the then adjacent air at the same level. That is, it will have the same potential temperature throughout, or same actual temperature when subjected to the same pressure. The 102 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES truth of the above statement is obvious from the fact that any temperature difference that ~ight be developed by a transfer of the kind mentioned clearly could be reduced. by further mixing. But as a mass of this air is carried to higher levels it continually expands against the diminishing pressure-diminished by the weight of the air passed through-thereby does work at the expense of its own heat energy and Correspondingly cools to lower temperatures. The ratio of this cooling to increase of altitude evidently depends upon the nature of the gas and the change of pressure. In the case of our own atmosphere it is approximately 1°C. per 100 meters. Although, therefore, stirring does bring an incompressible liquid to a uniform actual temperature, it brings the atmosphere only to a uniform potential temperature, or an actual temperature that is very non-uniform, that, in' fact, gets colder and colder at the rate of 1°C. for each 100 meters increase of elevation. METE.OROLOGICAL PARAbOXES 103 THE NEARER THE SUN, THE COLDER THE AIR The familiar fact that with increase of elevation and consequent approach (during the daytime) to the sun, the air nevertheless gets rapidly colder, at least through the first 10 kilometers (6.2 miles), is very puzzling to the average person if he tries to explain it. Nor, indeed, is the explanation of this phenomenon quite so simple and obvious as we sometimes are asked to believe. Essentially, however, this temperature distribution depends on the following facts: 1. The atmosphere, as we know from observation, lets heat and light pass through it so readily that half, roughly, of the effective radiation received from the sun, that is, half of the portion absorbed' by the earth and the atmosphere jointly and not lost by reflection, goes directly to warming the surface of the earth. Consequently, it is this surface, where the energy absorption is concentrated, and not the atmosphere, through which absorption is diffused, th:;lt is most strongly heated by insolation. The heated surface in turn warms the air above it, partly by contact, and partly by the long wave-length radiation it emits, and of which the atmosphere is far more absorptive than it is of, the comparatively short wavelength solar radiation. 104 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 2. Furthermore, and this is an eq'Hally.,vital part of the explanation, the lower atmosphere (below about 10 kilometers, 6.2 miles), under all ordinary conditions emits more radiant energy than it absorbs-the difference necessary to maintain the nearly constant temperature that obtains at each level being supplied by convection. It is these two phenomena, (a) the surface heating (warming below), and (b) the net loss of heat by radiation (cooling above), that together establish and maintain the vertical convections of the atmosphere under which, since the descending portions grow warmer through compression, and the ascending colder through expans'lOn, the whole of the convective region is made to decrease in temperature with increase of elevation. But since the coefficient of absorption of the air, as of other objects, changes but little, if at all,· with the temperature, while its emissive power decreases rapidly as it grows colder, and since the intensity of the incident terrestrial (including atmospheric) radiation remains roughly constant up to an altitude of man)' kilometers, beyond the first 4 or 5, it follows that the upper limit of the convective region is not, as formerly supposed, the outermost extent of the atmosphere, but at that elevation (10 to 12 kilometers, 6.2 to 7.5 miles, above sea-level) METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 105 at which the temperature is so low (-55°C., or -67°F., roughly) that the loss of heat by radiation is no longer in excess of, but now equal to, its gain, by absorption. Beyond this level temperature does not decrease, or does so but slightly, with increase of elevation; nor would it so decrease (at least not at anything like the present rate) beyond any level above the thin conducting surface layer, at which absorption and radiation became equal. In short, then, the air grows colder with elevation-the nearer the sun the colder the air-because (1) owing to its transparency to solar radiation it is heated mainly at the surface of the earth, and (2) because, at ordinary temperatures, it emits more radiation than it absorbs. These together so affect the density of the atmosphere as to induce vertical convections, and thereby to establish and maintain, throughout the region in which they are active, a rapid decrease of temperature with increase of elevation. THE COLDEST AIR COVERS THE WARMEST EARTH This paradoxical statement refers to the air of the isothermal or constant temperature re- 106 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES gion above the limit of vertical COI1Vection, with respett to which air it is a well known truth whatever the explanation may be· It has, doubtless, been known since the dawn of intelligence that the top of a mOlmtain is cooler than the adjacent valleys, and that the highest among neighboring mountains has the coldest top. And for much more thaj:1 a century, actually since November 30, 178·4, it has been known, from observations by balloonists, that the temperature of the free air also decreases with height, at least up to such altitudes as were attained by manned balloons. About the dase. at the. la.st c.e.n.t1.lt'j, hawe.ve.r., it became evident, through records obtairted with sounding balloons, that in middle latitudes the temperature of the atmosphere continuously decreases, on the average, with increase of altitude up to only 10 or 12 kilometers above sea level, and then becomes substantially constant. Numerous subsequent records obtained at many places have shown the additional surprising fact that this isothermal region, or str~tosphere as it generally is called, begins at a higher level, and is colder, over equatorial regions than over' any other part of the world. Indeed, it seems to be lO°C. to 15°C. colder over the equator, where its average temperature is roughly -70°C. (-94°F.), than, for instance, over the polar circles. METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 107 The temperature of the stratosphere appears to be determined chiefly by the intensity of the outgoing radiation from the earth and the intervening water vapor, hence it seems to follow that this radiation must be less intense over regions near the equator than over those of the middle and higher latitudes; a conclusion that merely shifts the burden of explanation from one' paradox to another. Obviously, the earth as a whole must emit, on the average, the same amount of radiant energy day by day that it absorbs, but the distributions of the absorption and emission certainly are different. In equatorial regions upward movement of the atmosphere is so general and so strong that high haze, cirrus, and other types of clouds are exceedingly common, and the atmosphere necessarily humid and, therefore, strongly absorptive of earth radiation to great altitudes, especially as anticyclones, or extensive areas of descending air, are there unknown. Clearly, then, a large part of the radiation through the stratosphere of this region must come from the clouds and water vapor that are very high and correspondingly cold, and therefore its intensity, it would seem, must. be correspondingly feeble. The pent-up heat below presumably finds an outlet through horizontal circulation and the conse- 108 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES quent increase of radiation from lower .Jl.ild warmer levels in extratropical latitudes. This, perhaps, is at least the partial explanation of why the minimum temperature of the stratosphere occurs over the tropical regionswhy the coldest air covers the warmest earth. AS THE DAYS GROW LONGER, THE COLD GROWS STRONGER This old proverb paradox expresses the w,ell known fact that our lowest temperatures do not occur at the time of the shortest days,. or when the heat supply from the sun is least, but some time afterwards, when the days have grown longer and the supply of solar heat has increased. That is, over a considerable period, the air grows colder as the sun grows warmer. In the far interior of continents, especially if arid, this lag may not be more than a couple of weeks, but on many islands and along several coasts whose winds are prevailingly onshore, it. is from one to two months. To understand this phenomenon consider an object (representing the earth) suspended within a thermally opaque shell (assumed the source of incoming radiation) whose temperature is METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 109 everywhere the same. For simplicity let the enclosed object be a "black body," that is, a full radiator and perfect absorber. Let the absolute temperature of the shell be T and that of the enclosed object T ± t. Under these conditions the rate of heat absorption by the suspended body is AKP ( a full radiator gives off energy in proportion to the fourth power of its absolute temperature, while a perfect absorber takes up every ray that falls upon it), where A is its "equivalent" area and K the "black body" coefficient, while the rate of its emission is AK(T ± t)4. If, now, t is small in comparison with T, the rate of net gain or loss of heat by the· enclosed object is 4AKT3t, approximately, and the ratio of its rate of temperature increase or decrease to the temperature difference, t, a constant, inversely proportional to its heat capacity, assuming high conductivity. The limiting temperature' T would, therefore, never be fully attained, but forever approached closer and closer. Clearly, then, if the temperature of the shell were T and that of the enclosed object T + t, the latter would continue to grow colder through any finite time unless, and until some time after, the temperature of the shell were raised above the then temperature of the enclosed object. 110 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES The reasoning in this special case appIies.~also to the normal daily temperature of the atmosphere (substantially that of the surface of the earth), provided, as will be assumed for the moment, that there is neither circulation nor any thermal effects due to water transformations-freezing, thawing, etc. It applies because the normal daily loss of heat through radiation to space by any given region is as though it were a full radiator at a certain temperature, and its normal daily gain of heat from the outside as though the region in question were completely canopied by another full radiator also at a certain (generally different) temperature. During the autumn, therefore, while there is still stored in the earth much of its summer gain of heat, and while the daily supply of energy from the sun is growing less and less per unit area, the average 24-hour temperature of the surface, and of the surface air, must be appreciably higher than that of equilibrium with the simultaneous incoming radiationhigher because of the additional supply of heat by conduction from its reservoir beneatl). the surface. Now, as the summer storage of ~eat iIi the earth is very large and also near the surface (but little penetrating beyond a depth of 5 or 6 meters, 16 to 20 feet) itis obvious from METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 111 the ::.preliminary explanation above that the minimum temperature cannot occur until some time after the winter solstice, the date of minimum supply, of heat by the sun; not, that is, until the days have again grown longer and the rate of supply of solar heat materially increased. Furthermore, this delay clearly must depend on latitude, nature of surface, and a number of other factors. The date of this minimum temperature is still further delayed, in many places, by the trend of warm ocean currents and the warmer surface drifts toward higher latitudes, and by onshore winds. It is also affected, though probably but slightly, by the thermal effects of freezing, thawing, evaporation, and condensation. The storage of heat in the earth while the days are long, its gradual delivery back to the surface while the daily supply from -the sun is comparatively small, and the poleward drift of warm water at all seasons, together produce, as explained, the paradoxical result so admirably expressed' by the proverb, "As the days grow longer, The cold grows stronger." 112 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES AS THE NIGHTS GROW LONGER, TME HEAT GROWS STRONGER It will be recognized at once that;, this paradox is only the counterpart of the one just discussed, and that it must also have substantially the same explanation. As the days continue to grow longer after the time of minimum temperature, it is clear that from then on for several months the earth's gain of heat must be at a faster rate than its loss-that, in terms of the above explanatory hypothesis, the effective temperature of the shell is T and that of the enclosed object T - t. Under these conditions the thin layer of the earth affected, because of its large but finite heat capacity, must continue to grow slowly warmer until the incoming radiation has become less, that is, until the nights. have grown perceptibly longer. This .lag, the lag of maximum temperature after the summer solstice, is also, like the lag of minimum temperature after th~ winter solstice, a function of location; generally least in the interior of continents and greatest on .islands and near coasts whose prevailing winds are onshore. METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 113 AS THE'SUN DESCENDS, THE' TEMPERATURE ASCENDS By this paradoxical expression it is only meant to state tersely the well known fact that the warmest time of the day is not when the sun is on the meridian, or when insolation is greatest, but sometime in the afternoon when the sun has descended considerably from its maximum elevation. As everyone knows, night cooling reaches its greatest effect, on the average, just after daybreak. Hence, and for the reasons explained above, as the sun ascends the temperatures of the warming surface of the earth and of the lower air lag behind equilibrium with the incoming radiation, and continue to do so until the intensity of the insolation has passed well beyond its maximum. That is, the temperature continues to rise for some time, generally two to four hours, after the sun has crossed the meridian, just as, and for the same reason that, the average daily temperature increases for weeks after the summer solsticeas the sun begins to descend from its highest point the temperature continues to ascend. 114 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES WHEN A THAW COMES ON, THE FOOST GOES DOWN The truth of this paradox is sometimes exasperatingly proven by the bursting of buried pipes after the surface of the ground had begun to thaw and we had comforted ourselves with the belief that all danger of a water famine was over. Suppose there has been a protracted spell of very cold weather, bringing the ground to 20°F. belmv zero at the surface, zero F. at the depth of 1 foot, and to the freezing point, or 32°F. at the depth of 3 feet. Now, let the weather so moderate that the temperature of the air shall be above freezing. Pretty soon the surface of the ground will also warm up, more or less, by heat absorbed from the air, ancC in turn, transmit heat by conduction to the colder earth next below. At the same time heat will con~ tinue to be conducted from the deeper layers upward wherever the decrease of temperature is in that direction, as, for instance, at the under surface of the frozen earth. Furthermore, at this under surface the rate of temperature decrease upwards is, at first and for some time, greater than the rate of temperature increase downwards. Hence, under these conditions, the soil at this boundary loses heat upward faster , METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 115 tha.Il it gains heat from below and the level of freezing continues to go deeper for a while, even several days-weeks in extreme cases-after the surface had ,begun to thaw. Of course the going down of the frost (freeze) does not wait on the coming of a surface thaw, but neither does it stop going down at once as soon as the surface is warmed. After the warm weather has begun, the thaw extends deeper and deeper, and so too, for a time, does the freeze. In truth, then, and at times a truth of much practical importance, when a thaw comes on, the frost goes down. Similarly, under circumstances easily imagined and that now and then occur, when a frost comes on, the thaw goes down. THE ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM DIURNAL INSOLATION (HEAT SUPPLY) IS AT THE SOUTH POLE If I i~ the solar constant, or quantity of solar energy per minute per unit area, normal to the incoming radiation at the limit of the atmosphere, then the total amount Q of solar energy per any consecutive twenty-four houn, per unit area of a horizontal surface, also at the 116 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES limit of the atmosphere, is given by the eQuation 1440 ( . . . Q = _ - I H sm 1 sm d + cos 1 cos d sm II) ~ ~ in which 1 is the latitude of the place in question, d the declination of the sun at the time, H the hour angle, in radians, between noon and sunrise, or sunset, and ~ the ratio of the Clrcumference to the diameter of a circle, 3.1416, nearly. A great deal of interesting information is contained in this equation. The most interesting, perhaps, is the fact that if the value of Q for the equator at the time of the vernal equinox be represented by 1000, then that of the north pole at summer solstice is 1202, and that of the south pole at the corresponding solstice 1284; each being greater than the value of Q at that time for any other place in either hemisphere. The advantage in favor of the south pole is owing to the fact that the earth is then near perihelion, and, therefore, closer ~o the sun. Not only does the absolute maximum diurnal insolation at the limit of the atmosphere occur at the south pole, but, owing to the great elevation of the south polar region, the dryness of its atmosphere and its comparative freedom METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 117 from dust, so also does the corresponding maximum at the surface of the earth. The days, however, of continuous and intense sunshme at the poles are comparatively few, nor is this insolation very effective in raising the temperature, owing to the high reflecting power and great heat of fusion of the always-prevalent snow and ice. And so it happens that although for a time every year each pole receives more solar heat during any consecutive twenty-four hours than does any other place on the earth, it is always cold; and the south pole, though having the greater maximum diurnal insolation, is the colder of the two, owing to its elevation and greater distance from open water. THE HOTTER THE SUN, THE COLDER THE EARTH It is not yet universally conceded that this paradox, "the hotter the sun the colder the earth," really is true; but the evidence in favor of it is already very strong. It is known, for instance, that several extensive studies of the temperature records of the earth have all shown that, on the average, it is a little colder during 118 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES the years of sunspot maxima than during. the years of sunspot minima. Furthermore, numerous careful measurements of the solar radiation made during the past dozen years or more, seem to compel the assumption, at least tentatively, that the effective temperature of the sun is greater during spot maxima than during spot mmlma. If, then, both these conclusions are true-if the temperature of the earth is lowest during spot maxima and the solar constant highest-it follows that the above paradox is also true. But by what possible process can the earth get colder when the sun grows warmer? It has been suggested that the increase of the solar constant causes a corresponding increase in the atmospheric circulation, and, therefore, a decrease in the surface temperature, owing to the greater flow of cold air from the higher towards the lower latitudes. But the very great mixing of the convective portion of the atmosphere, and the consequent prevention of the (ormation of over- and underflowing strata, seems to render this suggested explanation untenable. The key to this paradox, may, perhaps, be found in the greater extent and density of the solar corona at the times of spot maxima than at the times of spot minima. The corona, since in large measure it is only so much dust about the METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 119 sun., obviously must interfere with the passage of radiation through it, and to a far greater extent with the ultra-violet radiation than with the visible -3.nd infra-red. Hence, during spot maxima, or when the solar atmosphere is dustiest, the solar energy must, it would seem, be poorest in ultra-violet radiation. Now, when cold dry oxygen, such as exists in the upper atmosphere, is acted upon by certain regions, at least, of the ultra-violet spectrum, some of it is converted into ozone, a substance known to be in the upper atmosphere to a far greater extent than in the lower. Hence when sunspots are most numerous the upper air should contain a minimum amount of ozone. But ozone is intensely absorptive of earth radiation and that too in the spectral region of its greatest intensity, and where water is least absorptive and carbon dioxide not at all. That is, at the time of spot maxi.ma when the solar constant is (apparently) greatest, the earth's blanket of ozone is (presumably) least. Even, therefore, if the earth should be receiving an increasea amount of heat at this time it might, nevertheless, grow slightly colder because of the coincident depletion of the heat conserving blanket of ozone. A greater general prevalence of' cirrus and cirrus haze during spot maxima than during 120 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES spot minima (indicated by certain observatipns) would also account for this paradox; because such clouds, owing to the size of their particles, shut out the short wave-length solar radiation more effectively than they shut in the long wavelength earth radiation. And perhaps these clouds really are generally most prevalent during spot maxima, and, therefore, at least a contributing factor to the cause of the corresponding temperature minima. At any rate the auroras are then most frequent, and they, perhaps, generate nitrous oxide and some other hygroscopic compounds which, because of their density, slowly fall to the cirrus level where they may produce cloud particles in an atmosphere whose humidity is much below that which otherwise would be essential to cloud formation. The maximum, then, of the cirrus screen and the minimum of the ozone blanket, coincident with the highest temperature of the sun, may very well account for the above paradox,-the hotter the sun, the colder the earth. METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 121 TIiE COOLER THE SUN, THE WARMER THE EARTH This paradox is practically included in the one just discussed. It means that at the times of sunspot minima, when the solar constant seems to be least, the average temperature of the earth is highest. At the times of spot minima the solar atmosphere is clearest; the extreme ultraviolet radiation presumably, therefore, at a maximum; the upper atmosphere richest in ozone, and the earth most conservative of its heat, and, because of the minimum (if that be the case) of cirrus, also most receptive of solar radiationso receptive and so conservative, perhaps, as to gain slightly in temperature despite the decrease in the heat supply. THE COLDER THE DAY, THE HOTTER THE SUN The h~at of the sun is measured by exposing a suitable absorber, called a pyrheliometer (sunfire measurer) squarely to the incoming radiation. The less the depletion of this radiation, whether by absorption or scattering, during its passage through the atmosphere, the 122 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES more intense it is at the surface of the eat;,ththe hotter the sun, as we say. Now, the chief absorber of solar radiation in the atmosphere is water vapor, while dust is effective in scattering it. But the colder the air the less the water vapor present, and also, as a rule, the less the dust for there are then few if any rising currents to carry dust up. In fact, at such times the atmosphere is apt to be slowly descending, and for that reason, too, comparatively dry and dust free. That is, the colder the air the better, in general, it transmits the solar radiation-the colder the day, the hotter the sun. THE CLOSER THE SUN, THE COLDER THE SEASON This striking paradox, which might equally well be written, "the farther the sun, the warmer the season," applies to the northern hemisphere only, and is easy to understand. The orbit of the earth, as every astronomer can tell us, is an ellipse, with the sun in one of the foci, and of such elongation that our maximum 'ilistance from this source of heat and light is about 3.3 per cent greater than the METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES 123 mmimum distance, which gives 6.6 per cent difference between the corresponding intensities of the received radiation. Now, it 80 happens that at present, and it will continue so for centuries, we are nearest the sun in January, our coldest month, and farthest from it in July, our warmest month. Of course it is the shortness of the days and the low elevation of the sun that' makes January and the other winter months cold (in the northern hemisphere) in spite of our then nearer approach to the sun, and the long days and high elevation of the sun that, on the other hand, makes the summer months warm in spite of our then greater distance from the sun. But whatever the details of the explanation, it is literally true that, for the northern hemisphere, the closer the sun, the colder the season, and the farther the sun, the warmer the season. TIlE SUN RISES BEFORE IT IS UP This paradox about the sun rising before it is up is equally true of the moon and the stars, and is also one of the best known and easiest explained of all meteorological panidoxes. 124 METEOROLOGICAL PARADOXES Everyone is familiar with the fact that as light passes slantingly from one medium to another, as from air to glass, for instance, it does not continue on in the same straight line, but abruptly changes direction at the interface according to well-known laws. And the same thing is true of the rays of light that pass from space into and through the atmosphere of the earth; except that, in this case, as the density of the atmosphere gradually increases from zero at its outer boundary to a maximum at the surface of the earth, so too the change in direction of the entering light is equally gradual. The total change of direction by the time the surface of the earth is reached depends upon the wave-length or color of the light; the slope at which it enters, or zenith distance of the luminous object; the temperature and barometric pressure at the place of observation; the humidity; and several other minor factors. On the average, however, light from a star, for instance, that appears to be 90° from the zenith, and, therefore, on the horizon-just rising say-has been bent out of its original course by about 34.5'. That is, it comes into view (rises) while actually more than half a degree below the horizon. And as the angular diameters of the sun ana the moon are each less than this horizon refraction, it follows that when the sky METEOROLOGICAL PAR_t\DOXES 125 sqfficiently clear the whole of either luminary may be seen before even its topmost portion is up; that is, before it is geometrically above the horizon, or ,actually within 90° or less of the zenith. 1S THE SUN SETS AFTER IT IS DOWN Since the virtual wave length of a given radiation of celestial origin, and, therefore, the value of its astronomical refraction is modified by the rotation of the earth, as are also certain scintillation phenomena, it follows that the above paradox is not identical with the one just explained. Nevertheless, as the spectra of the ~tars and other celestial objects all overreach the visible portion at each end, it follows that this modificati.on, this Doppler effect, produces no appreciable alteration in the ensemble of the light from anyone-merely a minute shift of its entire spectrum that can be detected only in the positions of definite lines. But even this displacement of the spectral lines, due to the rotation of the earth, is far too small, roughly one three-hundreth the distance between the sodium D's, to affect, detectably, astronomical refraction. Hence as the sun, the moon, and the stars all rise beflire they are up, so too they must all set only after they have gone down. Sans Tache Sans Tache N THE" elder days of art" each artist or craftsman enjoyed the privilege of independent creation. He carried through a process of manufacture from beginning to end. The scribe of the days before the printing press was s~ch a craftsman. 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