Download Dagmar Etkin

Behaviour & Environmental
Impacts of Crude Oil Released into
Aqueous Environments
Interview with:
Dagmar Schmidt Etkin, PhD
Environmental Research Consulting
Cortlandt Manor, New York, USA
8 April 2015
Introduction
Dagmar Schmidt Etkin
 PhD Harvard University, Organismic/Evolutionary Biology (ecology,
statistics, modeling), 1982
 MA Harvard University, Biology, 1980
 BA University of Rochester, Biology, 1977
 14 years investigating and modeling population
biology and ecological systems
 26 years on ecological/environmental risk
assessment of oil spills
 11 years as researcher with Oil Spill Intelligence Report
 15 years as independent consultant to governments,
UN, industry, NGOs
Ecological/Environmental Risk Assessment
Risk = Probability x Consequences
Probability Analyses
Consequence Analyses
 Likelihood of spills
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Tanker/vessel spills
Pipeline spills
Well blowouts
Crude by rail spills
 Spill locations
 Vessel collisions/groundings
 Derailments
 Prevention measure effectiveness
 Changes with new frontiers
 Deeper offshore wells
 Arctic exploration
 Crude by rail
Spill volumes by source/cause
Impacts by oil type
Impacts by location type
Seasonal variations
Modeling and analyzing impacts:
 Ecological systems/habitats/wildlife
 Socioeconomic resources
 Costs of response
 Impact mitigation through spill
response measures
RSC Panel Concerns
 How do the various types of crude oils compare in the way they behave when
mixed with surface fresh, brackish or sea waters under a range of environmental
conditions?
 How do the various crude oils compare in their chemical composition and toxicity
to organisms in aquatic ecosystems?
 How do microbial processes affect crude oils in aquatic ecosystems, thereby
modifying their physical and chemical properties and toxicity?
 Is the research community able to relate, with reliable predictions, the chemical,
physical and biological properties of crudes to their behaviour, toxicity and ability
to be remediated in water and sediments?
 Given the current state of the science, what are the priorities for research
investments?
 How should these scientific insights be used to inform optimal strategies for spill
preparedness, spill response and environmental remediation?
RSC Panel Concerns
 How do the various types of crude oils compare in the way they behave when
mixed with surface fresh, brackish or sea waters under a range of environmental
conditions?
 How do the various crude oils compare in their chemical composition and toxicity
to organisms in aquatic ecosystems?
 How do microbial processes affect crude oils in aquatic ecosystems, thereby
modifying their physical and chemical properties and toxicity?
 Is the research community able to relate, with reliable predictions, the chemical,
physical and biological properties of crudes to their behaviour, toxicity and ability
to be remediated in water and sediments?
 Given the current state of the science, what are the priorities for research
investments?
 How should these scientific insights be used to inform optimal strategies for spill
preparedness, spill response and environmental remediation?
RSC Panel Concerns
 How do the various types of crude oils compare in the way they behave when
mixed with surface fresh, brackish or sea waters under a range of environmental
conditions?
 How do the various crude oils compare in their chemical composition and toxicity
to organisms in aquatic ecosystems?
 How do microbial processes affect crude oils in aquatic ecosystems, thereby
modifying their physical and chemical properties and toxicity?
 Is the research community able to relate, with reliable predictions, the chemical,
physical and biological properties of crudes to their behaviour, toxicity and ability
to be remediated in water and sediments?
 Given the current state of the science, what are the priorities for research
investments?
 How should these scientific insights be used to inform optimal strategies for spill
preparedness, spill response and environmental remediation?
Recent Changes Driving Policy-Making
 Unprecedented increase in transport of crude oil by rail
 Potential for spills in new locations (populated areas, streams, rivers)
 New types of crudes being transported in large quantities
 Bakken crude (concerns about volatility/flammability)
 Oil sands/bitumen blends (concerns about submergence)
 Offshore drilling in new frontiers
 Deeper waters, deeper reservoirs, higher pressures
 Potential for blowout scenarios many times the magnitude of MC252
 New Arctic areas
 Increasing concerns about potentially-polluting sunken wrecks
and protocols/availability of funds to address them
 Discovery of submerged oil associated with MC252 spill
Relevant Projects to Inform RSC Panel
 Alaska/Arctic Oil Spill Risk Analysis (NOAA)
 Model for ecological risk – probability x impacts
 Washington State Marine & Rail Oil Transport Study (Ecology)
 Response and impact implications of Bakken crude and diluted bitumen transport
in inland areas and marine/estuarine waters
 Offshore Well Blowout Probability Analysis
 Analysis of Potential Offshore Well Blowouts (BSEE)
 Gulf of Mexico, California, Chukchi/Beaufort Seas
 Modeling of worst-case scenarios, trajectory, fate, spill response
 Modeling of subsea dispersant applications
 Risk Assessment of Potentially-Polluting Wrecks (NOAA/USCG)
 Submerged Oil Monitoring/Removal Program (Louisiana)
 Ecological Risk Model for Industry
 Database of 1,200+ literature review of ecological impacts, 220 spill cases
Research Priorities to Inform Ecological
Risk Assessments and Policy-Making
 Behaviour of oil in offshore well blowouts (esp. with greater
water depths, reservoir depths, pressures)
 Effectiveness of subsea dispersants
 Biodegradation of subsea-dispersed oil
 Behaviour of Bakken crude in marine/fresh water
 Weathering, shoreline penetration, toxicity
 Behaviour of diluted bitumen in marine/fresh water
 Submergence, shoreline penetration, toxicity
 Behaviour/character of oils at depth (sunken wrecks)