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CHARTING A COURSE FOR
IONS: FUTURE OUTLOOK
AND WAYS AHEAD
“It’s tough to make
predictions; especially
about the future!”
Yogi Berra,
American baseball hero
The 500-year long era of Western
domination of Asia, which commenced
with the arrival of Vasco da Gama in
1498, is now in a state of terminal decline,
due partly to Europe and America’s
economic travails, but mainly due to the
economic, political and military rise of
Asia.
The ‘Greater Indian Ocean’; an area
extending from the Horn of Africa to
Indonesia, is taking centre-stage in world
affairs.
As such, the Indian Ocean will see many
global struggles playing out; it is here that
the fight for democracy, energyindependence and religious freedom will
be lost or won.
“The Indian Ocean is where the rivalry between
the US and China in the Pacific interlocks with
the regional rivalry between China and India’
-Robert Kaplan
“No ocean is in need of strategic stability more
than the Indian Ocean, since the navies of six
nuclear powers, US, Russia, France, UK, China,
India and Pakistan ply in these waters.’
-Thomas Barnett
TRIFURCATION OF IOR
BETWEEN U.S COMMANDS
Not only has the level of intra-regional trade and
political interaction remained low, but we have
invariably gone beyond the IOR to seek partners.
This paucity of common interests and lack of
inter-dependence – perhaps a legacy of the
colonial past – is the reason why more recent
attempts to create pan-IOR organisations like the
Indian Ocean Rim Association have not been
entirely successful.
THE IOR ‘HOT-SPOTS’
Territorial disputes, on land as well as
offshore, which have defied resolution
for decades.
Nuclear weapon states in the IOR have
deployed warheads, on shore-based as
well as sea-going platforms.
An unstated naval arms race has been
in progress across the IOR for some
time.
“ War has ceased to be the natural,
or even normal, condition of
nations, and military considerations
are
merely
accessory
and
subordinate to the other great
interests,
economical
and
commercial, that they serve.”
-AT Mahan
INCLUSIVITY IS VITAL…
“We seek a future for the Indian
Ocean that ensures Security and
Growth for All in the Region.”
- Indian PM Narendra Modi
The acronym ‘SAGAR’ is now a foreign policy watchword in
New Delhi
The inception of IONS, in 2008, was a
step of historic significance, because it
represented the first post-colonial
endeavour by nations of the IOR
periphery to create maritime linkages,
directly with each other.
While
renewing
ancient
bonds,
disrupted by colonial domination, IONS
also sought to create new partnerships
and thereby reinforce an IOR identity
and cohesion.
‘No nation can do everything by
itself, but many nations can do
something together....’
....As the 2005 Hurricane Katarina in the
USA and the 2011 tsunami in Japan
demonstrated, even advanced nations can
get overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude
of such disasters and need external
assistance.
POSSIBLE WAYS AHEAD……
 The creation of an ‘IOR Maritime Partnership’ to
serve the common cause of safety and security at
sea.
 Laying the foundation for an information-sharing
system between IONS members.
 Constitution of a Maritime Confidence Building
Forum, which could address the underlying
causes of insecurity, discuss measures to limit
maritime capabilities, and prevent an unbridled
naval arms race.
CONCLUSION
As the force of economics lifts the IOR to
higher levels of growth, we must remember
that our vital interests are inextricably linked
to one another. No nation, big or small, can
hope to prosper in isolation, leaving others
behind.
Inclusivity is, therefore, the vital key to our
prosperity and security.
THANK YOU!