Download US Intelligence Agencies See a Different World

U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different
World in 2030
A pond is dried up due to an El Nino-induced drought, in Jones, Isabela province, the
Philippines.
New technologies, dwindling resources and explosive population growth in the next 18 years
will alter the global balance of power and trigger radical economic and political changes at a
speed unprecedented in modern history, says a new report by the U.S. intelligence community.
Attachment: Global Trends Study
What sets the next quarter century apart is the way seven “tectonic shifts” are combining to drive
change at an accelerating rate, said NIC Counselor Mathew Burrows, the report’s principle
author. One of the factors is U.S. energy independence. Photographer: Patrick T.
Fallon/Bloomberg
The 140-page report released today by the National Intelligence Council lays out dangers and
opportunities for nations, economies, investors, political systems and leaders due to four
“megatrends” that government intelligence analysts say are transforming the world.
Those major trends are the end of U.S. global dominance, the rising power of individuals against
states, a rising middle class whose demands challenge governments, and a Gordian knot of
water, food and energy shortages, according to the analysts.


Full Report: National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030
Euro Blog: The EU -- Collapse? Slow Decline? Renaissance?
“We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures,”
Council Chairman Christopher Kojm writes in the report.
Leading the list of the “game-changers” -- factors the report says will shape the impact of the
megatrends -- is the “crisis-prone” global economy, which is vulnerable to international shocks
and to disparities among national economies moving at significantly different speeds.
The future is “malleable,” according to Kojm. “Our effort is to encourage decision-makers,
whether in government or outside, to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do
not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding.”
‘Tectonic Shifts’
The report reflects the consensus judgments of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, who consulted
or contracted with academics, research institutes, political leaders and corporations in 14
countries and the European Union.



Climate Treaty Hinges on Obama Making Case, Ex-Aides Say
Fracking Seen Robbing OPEC of Gasoline Pricing Power
Editorial: Where Will You Be in 2030, America?
While technological advances, migrations, wars and other factors drove change in earlier
periods, what sets the next quarter century apart is the way seven “tectonic shifts” are combining
to drive change at an accelerating rate, said NIC Counselor Mathew Burrows, the report’s
principle author. Those factors are: the growth of the middle class, wider access to new
technologies, shifting economic power, aging populations, urbanization, growing demand for
food and water, and U.S. energy independence
“It’s hard to wrap your mind around it, to tell you the truth; it’s just been happening at great
velocity,” Burrows said in an interview with Bloomberg News discussing the 18-month research
project.
‘Black Swans’
That velocity is a function of several mutually reinforcing dynamics, the report found. One is
what the report calls a “definitive shift of economic power to the East and South” as the U.S.,
European and Japanese share of global income is projected to fall from 56 percent today to well
under half by 2030.
The report envisions an international economy that remains prone to potential “black swans”
such as the collapse of the euro and the European Union, a pandemic, a Chinese economic
collapse, a nuclear war or a debilitating cyberattack.
Even absent such events, it says: “A return to pre-2008 growth rates and previous patterns of
rapid globalization looks increasingly unlikely, at least for the next decade,” in part because total
non-financial debt across G-7 countries has doubled since 1980 to 300 percent of GDP.
Population Growth
The key question, the report says, is whether divergent growth rates and increased volatility “will
result in a global economic breakdown or whether the development of multiple growth centers
will lead to resiliency.”
A world population that’s projected to rise to 8.3 billion from 7.1 billion today by 2030 will add
to the strains, the report says. More people will join the middle class, especially in the
developing world, and even conservative estimates forecast the global middle class doubling to
more than 2 billion in 18 years.
The education sector will both drive and benefit from this growth in the middle class, the report
projects, and economic success will be closely tied to educational levels. In the Middle East and
North Africa, average levels of schooling are expected to rise from 7.1 years to 8.7 years.
Education for women -- a driver of both economic growth and social health and welfare -- will
rise from 5 years to 7 years in the region, according to the report.
Cities Grow
Much of this growing middle class will flock to cities, increasing the world’s urban population
from roughly 50 percent of the world’s total to nearly 60 percent by 2030. Rising incomes will
fuel their appetite for food -- especially protein from meat and fish -- water and energy, which
will be in shorter supply, the report says, in part because climate change and water shortages will
alter patterns of arable land and greater demand for energy could curb the amount of fuel
available to make fertilizers and other products.
Demand for food will rise 35 percent by 2030 as global gains in agricultural productivity decline,
the report says. Worldwide water requirements will reach 6,900 billion cubic meters in 2030, 40
percent more than current sustainable water supplies, making water a likely cause of regional
conflicts, particularly in South Asia and the Middle East, the report says.
Climate Change
Climate change will complicate resource management, particularly in Asia, where monsoons are
crucial to the growing season and decreased rainfall could disrupt the region’s ability to feed its
growing population.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are happening faster than expected, Burrows
said. When his researchers updated their section on climate change, the new figures showed the
rate of change was even greater than it was 18 months before, when they started the project.
New communications technologies and expanding educational opportunities, meanwhile, will
empower the growing middle classes to make greater demands on their governments for services,
a scenario that’s already part of the Arab Spring movements in countries such as Egypt.
“You have a huge problem on the resource side,” Burrows said. “How do you manage all this
prosperity that is putting a lot of strain on the resources?”
‘Bad Scenario’
The solution to resource shortages will have to be public and private sector cooperation, Burrows
said. “You have to have collaboration on the technology, you have to have a big energy or water
project the world is really geared up for, because otherwise it turns into a bad scenario,” he said.
At the same time, though, communications technology is shifting political power from nations
“toward multifaceted and amorphous networks that will form to influence state and global
actions,” the report says.
“Those nations with some of the strongest fundamentals -- GDP, population size, etc. -- will not
be able to punch their weight unless they learn to operate in networks and coalitions in a
multipolar world,” according to the report
The same technologies will also allow groups to to attack electrical grids or computer networks,
Burrows said. While enormous caches of data eventually will enable governments to “figure out
and predict what people are going to be doing” and “get more control over society,” he said, for
now “the scales tip more in favor of the individual than the state.”
Asia Rising
At the same time, power will shift from North America and Europe to an Asia with GDP,
population, military spending and technological investment that will surpass the West’s, the
report projects.
China will surpass the U.S. economically a few years before 2030, and regional players such as
Colombia, India, Nigeria and Turkey will become increasingly important to the global economy.
The U.S. role in this new world order is hard to predict because the degree to which it continues
to dominate the international system could vary widely, the report says.
“The ’unipolar’ moment is over and Pax Americana -- the era of American ascendancy in
international politics that began in 1945 -- is fast winding down,” the report says.
Despite that, the U.S. most likely will remain “first among equals” in 2030, the report says.
The U.S. will remain the only power “that can really orchestrate these coalitions, including nonstate actors and state actors, to really manage, deal with these huge challenges and changes” the
world faces, Burrows said.
While the report envisions the end of a unipolar world, and “the U.S. can’t dictate,” Burrows
said, “you can’t see any other power out there that can organize it.”