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Lecture 1. Classic and Neoclassic Trade Models. Carlos Llano References: Feentra y Taylor (2010). Comercio Internacional. Ed. Reverte. Krugman P. Obsfeld and Melitz: International Economics. Prentice Hall, 2012. Chapter . van Marrewijk C. (2009): The New Introduction to Geographical Economics. Cambridge University Press. Introduction. U.S. Imports of Snowboards: 2009-05 • Why do countries trade? 2 Ranking of the main exporters in 2009? Why? Ranking of the countries with the largest gains in trade share between 2009/05? And losses? Why? Ranking of the lowest / highest price levels? Why? 2 1. Introduction In the classic models: • • Trade is based on comparative advantage. Countries gain from trade if they are different. Ricardian Model: • • Key: Differences in productivity Home (H): exports good 1, which is produced with higher • relative productivity; imports good 2, Foreign (F) produces good 2 more efficiently. H-O Model: • • • Key: Differences in factor endowments. H exports good 1, whose production is intensive in the relatively abundant factor (K or L), and imports good 2 F is specialized in producing the good that is more intensive in the factor that is relatively more abundant in F. 1. Introduction New Trade Theory (NTT) General equilibrium framework Imperfect competition Transport costs. Krugman, 79 Krugman, 80 Factor mobility (migration + firms) New Economic Geography (NEG) New-New Trade Theory (NNTT) Dynamics between economics and geography: 1st nature ►2nd nature ► circular causation Heterogeneous firms. Alternative ways for firm’s internationalization: Export vs FDI. Krugman, 91 Fujita, Krugman Venables, 1999 2. The Ricardian Model References: Feentra y Taylor (2011). Comercio Internacional. Ed. Reverte. Introduction • This chapter explains comparative advantage by looking at how technology differences across countries affects trade. • This is referred to as the Ricardian model because it was proposed by the 19th century economist David Ricardo. Assumptions: • Two goods: Wheat ; Cloth. • Two countries: Home (H); Foreign (F). • One factor of production (immobile between countries; mobile between sectors within each country): Labor. Road map: • Part 1. Home country, before trade. • Part 2. Home and Foreign countries, who exports wheat and who exports cloth? – Comparative advantage • Part 3. Is trade “good” or “bad”? The Home Country • We will assume that labor is the only resource used to produce both goods • One worker can produce 4 bushels of wheat or 2 yards of cloth • The Marginal Product of Labor is the extra output obtained by using 1 more unit of labor • MPLW = 4 ; • MPLC = 2 • Assumption: Marginal Product of Labor= fixed • Suppose Home has 25 workers; i.e. L = 25. Labor endowment. The Home Country: Summary Home Cloth MPL Wheat MPL Labor 2 4 25 • Home Production Possibilities Frontier – We use the MPL to construct Home’s PPF. – Assume there are 25 workers in Home. – If all the workers were employed in wheat, the country could produce 100 bushels – If they were all employed in cloth they could produce 50 yards. – The PPF connects these two points The PPF at “Home” in autarky. PPF Slope. The opportunity cost. • Showing these calculations we can see: – Labor = 25, MPLW = 4, MPLC = 2 – If Home produces wheat only, QW = MPLW*L = 25*4 = 100 – If Home produces cloth only, QC = MPLC*L = 25*2 = 50 • This gives us a straight line PPF which is a unique feature of the Ricardian model – Assumes marginal production of labor is constant QC MPLC L MPLC 50 SlopePPF 1 MPLW 100 QW MPLW L 2 • The slope equals the opportunity cost of wheat [the amount of cloth that must be given up to obtain 1 more unit of wheat] Labor used in 1 wheat = labor used in ½ cloth; i.e. cost of 1 wheat = cost of ½ cloth Indifference Curves: the consumer`s preferences Cloth, QC (yards) The country is indifferent between A and B U0 < U1 < U2 B A U1 U2 U0 Wheat, QW (bushels) A country cannot produce outside their PPF so, without trade, they are constrained in their utility by the PPF. closed-economy equilibrium (Home) Cloth, QC (yards) C 50 D • The country could produce at point D but would be at a higher level of utility at point A. • The country is better off on U2 but cannot produce that much • At point A, on U1, is the best the country can do B A U2 25 Home closed-economy equilibrium U1 Home PPF U0 50 100 Wheat, QW (bushels) Wage Equation • In competitive markets, suppose for cloth: P = $2 ; MPL = 4. ¿How much salary (w) are firms willing to pay? • Cost of a marginal worker to the firm = wage • Value of a marginal worker to the firm = the value of one more hour of production = 4 cloth x $2/cloth = $8 • So firms are happy if w = $8 Wage Equation • w = P*MPL – The value of one more worker equals the amount of goods produced by this worker (MPL) times the price of the good. – Predictions: • (1) you earn more if your products are worth more; • (2) you earn more if you are more productive Relative Prices at closed-economy equilibrium • W=P*MPL holds for both wheat and cloth • Since labor can move freely between industries (within each country), wages must be equalized: PW * MPLW PC * MPLC PW MPLC 1 PC MPLW 2 Relative price of wheat = Value of 1 wheat = ½ value of 1 cloth Slope of the PPF = the opportunity cost of obtaining one more bushel of wheat. Relative Prices and OC • The price ratio, PW/PC, always denotes the relative price of the good in the numerator, measured in terms of how much of the good in the denominator must be given up. • For the good on the horizontal axis of the PPF picture, |PPF slope| = OC = relative price before trade Real Wages Before Trade (Autarky) • Real Wages Real wage for wheat = wage/price_of_wheat; i.e. quantity of wheat the wage can buy Since Home produces both wheat and cloth, Home wage is: w = PW*MPLW = PC*MPLC The real wage for wheat = w/PW = (PW*MPLW)/PW = MPLW = 4 wheat The real wage for cloth = w/PC = (PC*MPLC)/PC MPLC = 2 cloth • Before trade, real wage = marginal product of labor The Foreign Country: Summary Foreign Cloth MPL 1 wheat MPL 1 Labor 100 – Foreign Production Possibilities Frontier • • • • MPL*W = 1, MPL*C = 1 Key Assumption: Marginal Products of Labor are fixed Assume there are 100 workers available in Foreign If all workers were employed in wheat they could produce 100 bushels. • If all workers were employed in cloth they could produce 100 yards. • The Foreign country’s PPF connects these two points. Foreign PPF © 2007 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor closed-economy equilibrium (Foreign) Cloth, (yards) |The slope of the PPF| = the opportunity cost of wheat = the before-trade relative price of wheat, P*W/P*C = 1 100 A* 50 Foreign before-trade equilibrium Foreign PPF 50 100 Wheat , (bushels) Pattern of Trade • Which country exports wheat and which country exports cloth? • Assume: no trade cost © 2007 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor Absolute Advantage = Higher MPL MPL, Cloth (Yard/worker) MPL, wheat Labor (Bushel/worker) Home 2 4 25 Foreign 1 1 100 – Absolute advantage = higher MPL at Home. – Foreign’s technology is inferior to Home’s – Home has an absolute advantage in both wheat and cloth as compared to Foreign – Clearly, Home can’t export both wheat and cloth when trade opens up. Comparative Advantage = Lower OC MPL, Cloth (Yard/worker) MPL, wheat Labor (Bushel/worker) Home 2 4 25 Foreign 1 1 100 What the Opportunity Costs for Goods in Home and Foreign are? Cloth (Yard) Wheat (Bushel) Home 4/2 = 2 wheat 2/4 = 1/2 cloth Foreign 1/1 =1 wheat 1/1 = 1 cloth © 2007 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor Notes: OC Table • Comparative Advantage = Lower Opp. Cost – A country has a comparative advantage in a good when it has a lower opportunity cost of producing that good – I.E.: • • • • Foreign has a comparative advantage in producing cloth Foreign’s Opportunity cost of cloth is lower (1 vs 2) Home has a comparative advantage in producing wheat Home’s opportunity cost of wheat is lower (1/2 vs 1) Why does comparative advantage drive trade patterns? • Because OC = relative prices before trade Wheat (Bushel) Home ½ cloth Foreign 1 cloth © 2007 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor Notes: Relative Price Table • Why does Home export wheat? – Relative price of wheat in Home is PW/PC = 1/2 – Relative price of wheat in Foreign is PW*/PC* = 1 – Therefore Home would want to export their wheat to Foreign – they can make it for 0.50 cloth and export it for 1 cloth! • The opposite is true for cloth – Home will export wheat and Foreign will export cloth – Both countries export the good for which they have the comparative advantage Equilibrium with trade • The relative price of wheat in the trade equilibrium will be between the before-trade prices in the two countries: • Lets assume the free-trade price, PWT/PCT = 2/3. • This is between the price of ½ (Home) and 1 (Foreign). • We can now take this price and see how trade changes production and consumption in each country Notes: Equilibrium with trade • ¿How prices change after trade? – As Home exports wheat, quantity of wheat sold at Home falls – The price of wheat at Home goes up – More wheat goes into Foreign’s market – The price of wheat in Foreign falls – For the same reason, as Foreign exports cloth, the quantity sold in Foreign falls. Therefore, the price in Foreign for cloth rises, and the price of cloth in Home falls. Notes: Equilibrium with trade • Trade Equilibrium – Two countries are in a trade equilibrium when the relative price of wheat is the same in the two countries – this means the relative price of cloth is also the same in both countries. – This is because we assume there is no trade cost Complete specialization Opportunity Costs in Home and Foreign Cloth (Yard) Wheat (Bushel) Home 4/2 = 2 wheat 2/4 = 1/2 cloth Foreign 1/1 =1 wheat 1/1 = 1 cloth Free-trade relative prices: PWT/PCT = 2/3. Home exports wheat. No cloths will be produced in Home. PWT MPLW 2 4 8 1 T PC MPLC 3 2 6 Therefore PWT MPLW PCT MPLC Wages Wheat Wages Cloth • Home’s workers will want to work in wheat and no cloth will be produced • With trade, Home will be fully specialized in wheat production! Is trade good or bad: Home PWT/PCT = 2/3. Home exports wheat Cloth, QC (yards) 50 A Home closed-economy equilibrium 25 U1 Home PPF 50 100 Wheat, QW (bushels) Consumption Possibility Frontier (CPF), Home • The new world price, PWT /PCT = 2/3, shows us the new range of consumption possibilities Cloth, QC (yards) • The country can now achieve a higher utility with the new consumption possibilities 50 CPF, Slope = –2/3 A 25 U2 U1 Home production B 50 100 Wheat , QW (bushels) Is trade good or bad: Foreign Cloth, (yards) Foreign PPF PWT/PCT = 2/3. Foreign exports cloth 100 A* Foreign closed-economy equilibrium U0 100 Wheat, (bushels) CPF, Foreign • The new world price, PWT /PCT = 2/3, shows us the new range of consumption possibilities Foreign production Cloth, (yards) 100 • The country can now achieve a higher utility with the new consumption possibilities B* Foreign consumption C* 60 U1 World price line, Slope = –2/3 U0 60 100 Wheat, (bushels) Notes: Gains from Trade • Gains from trade for BOTH countries! – Under the new production, each country specializes fully in the good for which they have the comparative advantage – They then export some of their production and import some of the other good from the other country – Home specializes in wheat and Foreign specializes in cloth – The new indifference curves show the new consumption points. – The difference between production and consumption give us trade patterns Gains from Trade: intuition • International Trade – Trade allows both countries to engage in consumption possibilities they did not have before trade – Intuition: trade increases the choices a country can make; both countries gain because they help each other out. Trade is Balanced: Foreign • Foreign produces 0 wheat but consumes 60 so imports equal 60. • Foreign produces 100 cloth but consumes only 60 so exports equal 40 Foreign production Cloth, (yards) 100 Foreign exports 40 yards of cloth B* Foreign consumption C* 60 U1 World price line, Slope = –2/3 U0 60 100 Foreign imports 60 bushels of wheat Wheat, (bushels) Trade is Balanced: Home • Home produces 100 wheat but consumes only 40 so exports equal 60 • Home produces 0 cloth but consumes 40 so imports equal 40. Cloth, QC (yards) Home consumption 50 C 40 U2 Home imports 40 yards of cloth World price line, Slope = –2/3 U1 Home production B 40 100 Home exports 60 bushels of wheat Wheat , QW (bushels) Trade and Wages • How do wages change after trade for Home and Foreign? • Under free trade, which country has a higher wage? – Wages actually differ [they are determined by absolute advantage, not by comparative advantage] • Real wages: = wage/price. Real Wages Before Trade: Home • Before trade, real wage = marginal product of labor since Home makes both wheat and cloth – The real wage for wheat = MPLW = 4 wheat – The real wage for cloth = MPLC = 2 cloth Real Wages After Trade: Home • Since Home produces and exports “wheat”, Home wage is: w = PWT*MPLW • The real wage for wheat = w/PWT = (PWT*MPLW)/PWT = MPLW = 4 wheat. [Same as before trade] • The real wage for cloth = w/PCT = (PWT*MPLW)/PCT =(PWT/PCT)*MPLW = (2/3)*4 = 8/3 cloth. [Higher than before trade] • Trade increases real wage for cloth! • Same intuition as gains from trade. Terms of Trade • The real wage for cloth =(PWT/PCT)*MPLW • The Terms of Trade for Home = PWT/PCT – An increase in PWT or a fall in PCT will raise Home’s terms of trade – An increase in the terms of trade is good for a country • They earn more for its exports • They pay less for their imports • Home real wage for cloth is higher – In general, the price of a country’s exports divided by the price of its imports. – Foreign’s Terms of Trade = PCT/PWT Real Wages Before Trade: Foreign • Before trade, real wage = marginal product of labor since Foreign makes both wheat and cloth – The real wage for wheat = MPLW* = 1 wheat – The real wage for cloth = MPLC* = 1 cloth Real Wages After Trade: Foreign • Since Foreign produces-exports cloth, its wage is: w* = PCT *MPLC* • The real wage for cloth = w*/PCT = (PCT*MPLC*)/PCT = MPLC* = 1 cloth, [same as before trade] • The real wage for wheat = w*/PWT = (PCT*MPLC*)/PWT = (PCT/PWT)*MPLC* = (3/2)*1 = 3/2 wheat, [higher than before trade] • Again, free trade increases real wages! Comparing Wages Across Countries • Summarizing – Home real wage is • 4 bushels of wheat • 8/3 yards of cloth – Foreign real wage is • 3/2 bushels of wheat • 1 yard of cloth – The ratio Home_wage/Foreign_wage = 8/3, so Foreign workers earn less – What is the intuition for this? Comparing Wage Across Countries • What determines w/w*? – Since Home produces and exports wheat, Home wage is: w = PWT*MPLW – Since Foreign produces and exports cloth, Foreign wage is: w* = PCT *MPLC* w P MPL w P MPL * T W T C W * C PWT MPLW 2 4 8 ( T )( ) * PC MPLC 3 1 3 Summary: Comparing Wages Across Countries • Home_wage/Foreign_wage depends on Home country’s TOT and absolute advantage • So comparative advantage gives you trade patterns, and absolute advantage gives you high wages • The intuition: the only way a country with poor technology can export at a price others are willing to pay is by having low wages. Predictions • In a given year, the countries that have better technology should have higher wages (i.e. comparing across countries) • Over time, as a given country develops better technology, its wages will rise (i.e. looking at changes for a given country) Labor Productivity and Wages for 2001 Figure 2.7 Notes: Figure 2.7. • Labor productivity can be measured by the value-added per hour in manufacturing – Value-added is the difference between sales revenue in an industry and the costs of intermediate inputs – Equals the payments to labor and capital in an industry. – The Ricardian model ignores capital so we can measure labor productivity as value-added divided by the number of hours worked, or value-added per hour • Figure 2.7 shows value added per hour in manufacturing for several countries – Countries with higher labor productivity pay higher wages, just as the Ricardian model predicts Labor Productivity and Wage Over Time