Download Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems

PART THREE
Answers
to End-of-Chapter
Problems
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Chapter 1
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. The interest rate on three-month Treasury bills fluctuates more than the other interest rates and is lower
on average. The interest rate on Baa corporate bonds is higher on average than the other interest rates.
2. The lower price for a firm’s shares means that it can raise a smaller amount of funds, so investment in
facilities and equipment will fall.
3. Higher stock prices mean that consumers’ wealth is higher, and they will be more likely to increase
their spending.
4. They channel funds from people who do not have a productive use for them to people who do,
thereby resulting in higher economic efficiency.
5. The United States economy was hit by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Defaults
in subprime residential mortgages led to major losses in financial institutions, producing not only
numerous bank failures, but also the demise of two of the largest investment banks in the United States.
These factors led to the “Great Recession” which began late in 2007.
6. The basic activity of banks is to accept deposits and make loans.
7. Savings and loan associations, mutual savings banks, credit unions, insurance companies, mutual
funds, pension funds, and finance companies.
8. Answers will vary.
9. In the period from 2007 to 2011, both inflation and interest rates have generally trended downward
compared to before that period.
10. The data in Figures 3, 5, and 6 suggest that real output, the inflation rate, and interest rates would
all fall.
11. Businesses would increase investment spending because the cost of financing this spending is now
lower, and consumers would be more likely to purchase a house or a car because the cost of financing
their purchase is lower.
12. No. It is true that people who borrow to purchase a house or a car are worse off because it costs them
more to finance their purchase; however, savers benefit because they can earn higher interest rates on
their savings.
13. Because the Federal Reserve affects interest rates, inflation, and business cycles, all of which have an
important impact on the profitability of financial institutions.
14. The deficit as a percentage of GDP has expanded dramatically since 2007; in 2010 the deficit to GDP
ratio was 10%, well above the historical average of around 2% since 1950.
15. It makes foreign goods more expensive, so British consumers will buy fewer foreign goods and more
domestic goods.
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61
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
16. It makes British goods more expensive relative to American goods. Thus American businesses will
find it easier to sell their goods in the United States and abroad, and the demand for their products
will rise.
17. Changes in foreign exchange rates change the value of assets held by financial institutions and thus
lead to gains and losses on these assets. Also changes in foreign exchange rates affect the profits made
by traders in foreign exchange who work for financial institutions.
18. In the mid- to late 1970s and in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the value of the dollar was low, making
travel abroad relatively more expensive; thus it was a good time to vacation in the United States and
see the Grand Canyon. With the rise in the dollar’s value in the early 1980s, travel abroad became
relatively cheaper, making it a good time to visit the Tower of London. This was also true, to a lesser
extent, in the early 2000s.
19. When the dollar increases in value, foreign goods become less expensive relative to American goods;
thus you are more likely to buy French-made jeans than American-made jeans. The resulting drop in
demand for American-made jeans because of the strong dollar hurts American jeans manufacturers.
On the other hand, the American company that imports jeans into the United States now finds that the
demand for its product has risen, so it is better off when the dollar is strong.
20. As the dollar becomes stronger (worth more) relative to a foreign currency, one dollar is equivalent to
(can be exchanged for) more foreign currency. Thus, for a given face value of bond holdings, a stronger
dollar will yield more home currency to foreigners, so the asset will be worth more to foreign investors.
Likewise, a weak dollar will lead to foreign bond holdings worth less to foreigners.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
21. The best day is 4/25. At a rate of $1.6674/pound, you would have £119.95. The worst day is 4/7.
At $1.961/pound, you would have £101.99, or a difference of £17.96.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
63
Chapter 2
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Yes, I should take out the loan, because I will be better off as a result of doing so. My interest payment
will be $4,500 (90% of $5,000), but as a result, I will earn an additional $10,000, so I will be ahead of
the game by $5,500. Since Larry’s loan-sharking business can make some people better off, as in this
example, loan sharking may have social benefits. (One argument against legalizing loan sharking,
however, is that it is frequently a violent activity.)
2. Yes, because the absence of financial markets means that funds cannot be channeled to people who
have the most productive use for them. Entrepreneurs then cannot acquire funds to set up businesses
that would help the economy grow rapidly.
3. The share of Microsoft stock is an asset for its owner, because it entitles the owner to a share of the
earnings and assets of Microsoft. The share is a liability for Microsoft, because it is a claim on its
earnings and assets by the owner of the share.
4. You would rather hold bonds, because bondholders are paid off before equity holders, who are the
residual claimants.
5. This statement is false. Prices in secondary markets determine the prices that firms issuing securities
receive in primary markets. In addition, secondary markets make securities more liquid and thus easier
to sell in the primary markets. Therefore, secondary markets are, if anything, more important than
primary markets.
6. Treasury bills are short-term debt instruments issued by the United States government to cover
immediate spending obligations, i.e. finance deficit spending. Certificates of deposit (CDs) are
issued by banks and sold to depositors. Commercial paper is issued by corporations and large banks
as a method of short-term funding in debt markets. Repos are issued primarily by banks, and funded
by corporations and other banks through loans in which treasury bills serve as collateral, with an
explicit agreement to pay off the debt (repurchase the treasuries) in the near future. Fed funds are
overnight loans from one bank to another.
7. Mortgages are loans to households or firms to purchase housing, land, or other real structures, where
the structure or land itself serves as collateral for the loans. Mortgage-backed securities are bond-like
debt instruments which are backed by a bundle of individual mortgages, whose interest and principal
payments are collectively paid to the holders of the security. In other words, when an individual takes
out a mortgage, that loan is bundled with other individual mortgages to create a composite debt
instrument, which is then sold to investors.
8. The British gained because they were able to earn higher interest rates as a result of lending to
Americans, while the Americans gained because they now had access to capital to start up profitable
businesses such as railroads.
9. The international trade of mortgage-backed securities is generally beneficial in that the European
banks that held the mortgages could earn a return on those holdings, while providing needed capital
to U.S. financial markets to support borrowing for new home construction and other productive uses.
In this sense, both European banks and U.S. borrowers should have benefitted. However, with the
sharp decline in the U.S. housing market, default rates on mortgages rose sharply, and the value of
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
the mortgage-backed securities held by European banks fell sharply. Even though the financial
crisis began primarily in the United States as a housing downturn, it significantly affected European
markets; Europe would have been much less affected without such internationalization of financial
markets.
10. Financial intermediaries benefit by carrying risk at relatively low transaction costs. Since higher
risk assets on average earn a higher return, financial intermediaries can earn a profit on a diversified
portfolio of risky assets. Individual investors benefit by earning returns on a pooled collection of assets
issued by financial intermediaries at lower risk. Risk to individual investors is lowered through the
pooling of assets by the financial intermediary.
11. Because you know your family member better than a stranger, you know more about the borrower’s
honesty, propensity for risk taking, and other traits. There is less asymmetric information than with
a stranger and less likelihood of an adverse selection problem, with the result that you are more likely
to lend to the family member.
12. The issuance of subprime mortgages represents lenders loaning money to the pool of potential
homeowners who are the highest credit risk and have the lowest net wealth and other financial
resources. In other words, this group of borrowers most in need of mortgage credit was also the
highest risk to lenders, a perfect example of adverse selection.
13. Loan sharks can threaten their borrowers with bodily harm if borrowers take actions that might
jeopardize their paying off the loan. Hence borrowers from a loan shark are less likely to increase
moral hazard.
14. They might not work hard enough while you are not looking or may steal or commit fraud.
15. Yes, because even if you know that a borrower is taking actions that might jeopardize paying off the
loan, you must still stop the borrower from doing so. Because that may be costly, you may not spend
the time and effort to reduce moral hazard, and so the problem of moral hazard still exists.
16. True. If there are no informational or transactions costs, people could make loans to each other at
no cost and would thus have no need for financial intermediaries.
17. Because the costs of making the loan to your neighbor are high (legal fees, fees for a credit check,
and so on), you will probably not be able earn 5% on the loan after your expenses even though it has
a 10% interest rate. You are better off depositing your savings with a financial intermediary and earning
5% interest. In addition, you are likely to bear less risk by depositing your savings at the bank rather
than lending them to your neighbor.
18. Potentially competing interests may lead an individual or firm to conceal information or disseminate
misleading information. A substantial reduction in the quality of information in financial markets
increases asymmetric information problems and prevents financial markets from channeling funds
into the most productive investment opportunities. Consequently, the financial markets and the
economy become less efficient. That is, false information as a result of a conflict of interest can
lead to a more inefficient allocation of capital than just asymmetric information alone.
19. Financial firms that provide multiple types of financial services can be more efficient through
economies of scope, that is, by lowering the cost of information production. However, this can be
problematic since it can also lead to conflicts of interest, in which the financial firm provides false or
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
65
misleading information to protect its own interests. This can lead to a worsening of the asymmetric
information problem, making financial markets less efficient.
20. You would likely use a credit union if you are a member, since their primary business is consumer
loans. In some cases it is possible to borrow directly from pension funds, but it can come with high
borrowing costs and tax implications. Investment banks do not provide loans to the general public.
21. Most life insurance companies hold large amounts of corporate bonds and mortgage assets, thus poor
corporate profits or a downturn in the housing market can significantly adversely impact the value of
asset holdings of insurance companies.
22. During the financial panic, regulators were concerned that depositors worried their banks would fail,
and that depositors (especially with accounts over $100,000) would pull money from banks, leaving
cash-starved banks with even less cash to satisfy customer demands and day-to-day operations. This
could create a contagious bank panic in which otherwise healthy banks would fail. Raising the insurance
limit would reassure depositors that their money was safe in banks and prevent a bank panic, helping
to stabilize the financial system.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
23. a.
With Option 1, since deposits are insured it can be assumed a riskless investment. Thus, the
expected total payoff would be $10,000  1.02  $10,200. With Option 2, a bond return of
5% implies a potential payoff of $10,000  1.05  $10,500, and there is a 90% chance that
this outcome will occur, thus the expected payoff is $10,500  0.9  $9450. Under Option 3,
the expected payoff is $10,000  1.08  0.93  $10,044. Option 4 is riskless, so the expected
total payoff is $10,000. Given these choices and the assumption that you don’t care about risk,
Option 1 is the best investment.
b. This option implies the very real possibility of either receiving nothing (if he actually leaves town),
or $10,800 (if he indeed pays as promised). If you don’t pay Mike, you have an expected return
of $10,044 as shown above. If you paid your friend the $100 and learned that Mike would leave
without paying, then obviously you wouldn’t loan Mike the money, and you would be left with
$9900. However, if you paid the friend $100 and learned that Mike would pay, you would have
$10,700 ( $10,000  1.08  $100). After paying your friend Mike, but before knowing the true
outcome, your expected return would be $10,644 ($9900  0.07  $10,700  0.93). Paying your
friend the $100 is definitely worth it because it increases your expected return and in addition
dramatically reduces the downside risk that you make a bad loan, and increases the certainty of
the payoff amount. That is, with asymmetric information (not paying your roommate), you have
a range of payoffs of $0 to $10,800 versus $9900 to $10,700 without asymmetric information.
Thus, paying a small amount to improve risk assessment can be very beneficial, a task for which
financial intermediaries are well suited.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 3
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Since a lot of other assets have liquidity properties that are similar to currency but can be used as
money to purchase goods and services, not counting them would understate an economy’s access
to liquidity for transactions purposes. For this reason, counting assets such as checking deposits or
savings accounts more accurately reflects the stock of assets that can be considered money.
2. Even if he or she is a non-smoker, since the prisoner knows that others in the prison will accept
cigarettes as a form of payment, they themselves would be willing to accept cigarettes as a form
of payment. So, rather than prisoners having to barter and trade favors, cigarettes satisfy the double
coincidence of wants in that both parties to a trade stand ready to use them to “purchase” goods or
services.
3. Because the orchard owner likes only bananas but the banana grower doesn’t like apples, the
banana grower will not want apples in exchange for his bananas, and they will not trade. Similarly,
the chocolatier will not be willing to trade with the banana grower because she does not like bananas.
The orchard owner will not trade with the chocolatier because he doesn’t like chocolate. Hence, in a
barter economy, trade among these three people may well not take place, because in no case is there
a double coincidence of wants. However, if money is introduced into the economy, the orchard owner
can sell his apples to the chocolatier and then use the money to buy bananas from the banana grower.
Similarly, the banana grower can use the money he receives from the orchard owner to buy chocolate
from the chocolatier, and the chocolatier can use the money to buy apples from the orchard owner.
The result is that the need for a double coincidence of wants is eliminated, and everyone is better off
because all three producers are now able to eat what they like best.
4. Cavemen did not need money. In their primitive economy, they did not specialize in producing one
type of good and they had little need to trade with other cavemen.
5. (a) This situation illustrates the medium-of-exchange function of money. We often do not think why
we accept money in exchange for hours spent working, as we are so accustomed to using money.
The medium-of-exchange function of money refers to its ability to facilitate trades (hours worked for
money and then money for groceries) in a society. (b) In this case we observe money performing its
unit-of-account function. If modern societies did not use money as a unit of account, then the price of
apples would have to be quoted in terms of all the other items in the market. This quickly becomes
an impossible task. Suppose that a pound of apples sells for 0.80 pounds of oranges, half a gallon of
milk, one third of a pound of meat, 2 razor blades, 1.5 pound of potatoes, etc., etc., etc! (c) Maria is
contemplating the store-of-value function of money. As a medium of exchange and unit of account,
measures of money known as M1 or M2 have no important rivals. With respect to the store-of-value
function, however, there are many assets that can preserve value better than a checking account.
Maria’s choice to preserve the purchasing power of her income by increasing her savings account
balance is fine for a small period of time. For a period of 20 years, however, you might choose to
buy a U.S. Treasury bond that matures in 20 years (as many grandparents have done as a way to
pay for their grandchildren’s educations).
6. Because of the rapid inflation in Brazil, the domestic currency, the real, was a poor store of value.
Thus many people preferred to hold dollars, which were a better store of value, and used them in
their daily shopping.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
67
7. Because money was losing value at a slower rate (the inflation rate was lower) in the 1950s than in
the 1970s, it was a better store of value then, and you would have been willing to hold more of it.
8. Money loses its value at an extremely rapid rate in hyperinflation, so you want to hold it for as short
a time as possible. Thus money is like a hot potato that is quickly passed from one person to another.
9. Because a check was so much easier to transport than gold, people would frequently rather be paid by
check even if there was a possibility that the check might bounce. In other words, the lower transactions
costs involved in handling checks made people more willing to accept them.
10. Wine is more difficult to transport than gold and is also more perishable. Gold is thus a better store
of value than wine and also leads to lower transactions cost. It is therefore a better candidate for use
as money.
11. Neither. Although PayPal and many other e-money systems work as other forms of money do
to facilitate purchases of goods and services, it does not count in the M1 or M2 money supplies.
Because PayPal and similar payment systems are generally credit-based, this requires payment at
a future date for funds used today; those future payments must be made using existing money that
is already in the system, such as currency or funds in a bank deposit account. In other words, the
M1 and M2 money supplies would theoretically remain the same, but money would move from
your checking account to a third party, once the credit transaction is settled.
12. The ranking from most liquid to least liquid is: (c), (a), (e), (f ), (d), and (b).
13. M1 contains the most liquid assets. M2 is the largest measure.
14. The degree of liquidity of an asset is measured by considering how much time and effort (i.e.,
transaction costs) are needed to convert that asset into currency. Currency is by definition the most
liquid type of money. Different types of money have different degrees of liquidity. A check, which
represents a balance on a checking account, is a quite liquid type of money. After all, all that is needed
to pay for a good or service using a check is the two minutes it takes to include the date and amount
and sign the check. However, the above example shows that some merchants refuse to accept checks
as a means of payment. (They cannot refuse to accept dollars, as dollars are legal tender in the United
States.) This can result in significant transaction costs in trying to find a bank or an ATM. It is even
possible that the transaction never takes place. This example illustrates the point that even inside the
same monetary aggregate, different types of money do not have the same degree of liquidity.
15. a.
b.
c.
d.
M1 and M2,
M2,
M2,
M1 and M2.
16. Your actions will reduce your checking account balance and increase your holdings of money market
mutual fund shares. Considering this transaction only, M1 will decrease as one of its components
decreased. M2 will remain constant, as M2 is composed of all items that add up to M1 plus some
other types of money that are not so liquid to be considered part of M1. One of these categories is
money market mutual fund shares. The decrease in your checking account balance is offset by the
increase in money market mutual fund shares, and therefore M2 remains constant.
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68
Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
17. During the period in question, the M1 growth rate increased by 17 percentage points, while the M2
growth rate increased by only 3 percentage points. Although both measures are moving in the same
direction, the magnitude of the difference in growth rates between the two makes it difficult to
judge the appropriateness of monetary policy by just looking at the money supply measures alone.
For instance, if one focused just on the M2 money supply, knowing the economy was in severe
economic contraction would suggest that the growth rate of M2 perhaps should be even higher than
the 3 percentage point increase over this time. On the other hand, if one just focused on the M1 growth
increase of 17 percentage points, this may seem alarmingly high and suggest an inflationary problem
in the future.
18. Not necessarily. Although the total amount of debt has predicted inflation and the business cycle
better than M1 or M2, it may not be a better predictor in the future. Without some theoretical reason
for believing that the total amount of debt will continue to predict well in the future, we may not want
to define money as the total amount of debt.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
19. The M1 money supply is the sum of rows A, E, and G for each year. The M2 money supply is the
sum of all components A–G for each year. Note that 3-month treasury bills are not considered part
of the M1 or M2 money supply, even though they are fairly liquid assets. The table below shows the
M1 and M2 money supplies, along with the growth rates from the previous year. Note that while the
M1 money supply is relatively flat (and slightly negative for 2010), the M2 money supply grows at
a much higher, positive rate. This is because the components of M2 are rising much more rapidly
compared to the components of M1 (which are also included in M2). In particular, small denomination
time deposits increase 30% from 2010 to 2011, and 39% from 2011 to 2012, driving much of the growth
in M2. Moreover, the narrower components which make up just the M1 money supply represent less
than 20% (1904/10128) of the broader M2 indicators. Thus movements in the money market, savings
account, and time deposit measures will have a much bigger impact on M2 growth than the narrower
M1 components will.
2009
2010
2011
2012
A.
Currency
900
920
925
931
B.
Money market mutual fund shares
680
681
679
688
C.
Savings account deposits
5500
5780
5968
6105
D.
Money market deposit accounts
1214
1245
1274
1329
E.
Demand and checkable deposits
1000
972
980
993
F.
G.
Small denomination time deposits
Traveler’s checks
830
4
861
4
1123
3
1566
2
H.
3-month treasury bills
1986
2374
2436
2502
Total M1 money stock
1904
1896
1908
1926
Total M2 money stock
10128
10463
10952
11614
M1 growth rate
0.4
0.6
0.9
M2 growth rate
3.3
4.7
6.0
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
69
Chapter 4
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. It would be worth 1/(1  0.20)  $0.83 when the interest rate is 20%, rather than 1/(1  0.10)  $0.91
when the interest rate is 10%. Thus, a dollar tomorrow is worth less with a higher interest rate today.
2. $2,000  $100/(1  i)  $100/(1  i)2  . . .  $100/(1  i)20  $1,000/(1  i)20. Solving for i gives the
yield to maturity.
3. If the interest rate were 12%, the present discounted value of the payments on the government loan
are necessarily less than the $1,000 loan amount because they do not start for two years. Thus the
yield to maturity must be lower than 12% in order for the present discounted value of these payments
to add up to $1,000.
4. When the yield to maturity increases, this represents a decrease in the price of the bond. If the
bondholder were to sell the bond at a lower price, the capital gains would be smaller (capital losses
larger) and therefore the bondholder would be worse off.
5. No. If interest rates rise sharply in the future, long-term bonds may suffer such a sharp fall in price
that their return might be quite low, possibly even negative.
6. People are more likely to buy houses because the real interest rate when purchasing a house has
fallen from 3% ( 5%  2%) to 1% ( 10%  9%). The real cost of financing the house is thus lower,
even though nominal mortgage rates have risen. (If the tax deductibility of interest payments is
allowed for, then it becomes even more likely that people will buy houses.)
7. The current yield will be a good approximation to the yield to maturity whenever the bond price is
very close to par or when the maturity of the bond is over about ten years. This is because cash flows
farther in the future have such small present discounted values that the value of a long-term coupon
bond is close to a perpetuity with the same coupon rate.
8. The near-term costs to maintaining a given size loan are much smaller for a perpetuity than for a similar
fixed payment loan, discount, or coupon bond. For instance, assuming a 5% interest rate over 10 years,
on a $1000 loan, a perpetuity costs $50 a year (or $500 in payments over 10 years). For a fixed
payment loan, this would be $129.50 per year (or $1295 in payments over the same 10-year period).
For a discount loan, this loan would require a lump sum payment of $1628.89 in 10 years. For a
coupon bond, assuming the same $50 coupon payment as the perpetuity implies a $1000 face value.
Thus, for the coupon bond, the total payments at the end of 10 years will be $1500.
9. Whenever the current price P is greater than face value F of a discount bond, the yield to maturity will
be negative. It is possible for a coupon bond to have a negative nominal interest rate, as long as the
coupon payment and face value are low relative to the current price. As an example, with a one-year
coupon bond, the yield to maturity is given as i  (C  F  P)/P; in this case whenever C  F  P,
i will be negative. It is impossible for a perpetuity to have a negative nominal interest rate, since this
would require either the coupon payment or the price to be negative.
10. True. The return on a bond is the current yield iC plus the rate of capital gain, g. A discount bond, by
definition, has no coupon payments, thus the current yield is always zero (the coupon payment of zero
divided by current price) for a discount bond.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
11. You would rather be holding long-term bonds because their price would increase more than the price
of the short-term bonds, giving them a higher return. Longer-term bonds are more susceptible to
higher price fluctuations than shorter-term bonds, and hence have greater interest-rate risk.
12. The economists are right. They reason that nominal interest rates were below expected rates of
inflation in the late 1970s, making real interest rates negative. The expected inflation rate, however,
fell much faster than nominal interest rates in the mid-1980s, so nominal interest rates were above
the expected inflation rate and real rates became positive.
13. While it would appear to them that their wealth is declining as nominal interest rates fall, as long as
expected inflation falls at the same rate as nominal interest rates, their real return on savings accounts
will be unaffected. However, in practice, expected inflation as reflected by the cost of living for seniors
and retired persons often is much higher than standard measures of inflation, thus low nominal rates
can adversely affect the wealth of senior citizens and retired persons.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
14. $1,100/(1  0.10)  $1,210/(1  0.10)2  $1,331/(1  0.10)3  $3,000.
15. PV  FV/(1  i)n, where FV  1000, i  0.06, n  5. Thus, PV  747.26.
16. In present value terms, the lottery prize is worth $2,000,000  $2,000,000/(1.06)  $2,000,000/(1.06)2 
$2,000,000/(1.06)3  $2,000,000/(1.06)4, or $8,930,211.
17. 25%  ($1,000  $800)/$800  $200/$800  0.25.
18. 14.9%, derived as follows: The present value of the $2 million payment five years from now is
$2/(1  i)5 million, which equals the $1 million loan. Thus 1  2/(1  i)5. Solving for i, (1  i)5  2,
so that i  5 2  1  0.149  14.9%.
19. If the one-year bond did not have a coupon payment, its yield to maturity would be ($1,000  $800)/
$800  $200/$800  0.25, or 25%. Because it does have a coupon payment, its yield to maturity must
be greater than 25%. However, because the current yield is a good approximation of the yield to maturity
for a twenty-year bond, we know that the yield to maturity on this bond is approximately 15%.
Therefore, the one-year bond has a higher yield to maturity.
20.
Years to
Maturity
Yield to
Maturity
Current
Price
2
2%
1038.83
2
4%
1000.00
3
4%
1000.00
5
2%
1094.27
5
6%
915.75
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
71
When yield to maturity is above the coupon rate, the bond’s current price is below its face value. The
opposite holds true when yield to maturity is below the coupon rate. For a given maturity, the bond’s
current price falls as yield to maturity rises. For a given yield to maturity, a bond’s value rises as its
maturity increases. When yield to maturity equals the coupon rate, a bond’s current price equals its
face value regardless of years to maturity.
21. $1044.89  $100/(1  i)  $100/(1  i)2  $1,000/(1  i)2. Solving for i gives a yield to maturity of
0.075, or 7.5%.
22. The price would be $50/0.025  $2000. If the yield to maturity doubles to 5%, the price would fall to
half its previous value, to $1000  $50/0.05.
23. The taxes on the $250,000 home are $250,000  0.04  $10,000 per year. The PV of all future
payments  $10,000/0.06  $166,666.67 (a perpetuity).
24. The coupon payment C  $100, thus the current yield is $100/$960  0.104, or 10.4%. The expected
rate of capital gain, g  ($980  $960)/$960  20/960  0.021, or 2.1%. The expected rate of return,
R  iC  g  10.4%  2.1%  12.5%.
25. The required nominal rate would be:
i  rr   e
 2%  6%  8%.
At this rate, you would expect to have $1,000  1.08, or $1,080 at the end of the year. Can you afford
the bicycle? In theory, the price of the bicycle will increase with the rate of inflation. So, one year later,
the bicycle will cost $1,050  1.06, or $1,113. You will be short by $33. If the bicycle does not increase
in price with inflation, then you will have enough to purchase it.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 5
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. (a) Less, because your wealth has declined; (b) more, because its relative expected return has risen;
(c) less, because it has become less liquid relative to bonds; (d) less, because its expected return has
fallen relative to gold; (e) more, because it has become less risky relative to bonds.
2. (a) More, because your wealth has increased; (b) more, because the house has become more liquid;
(c) less, because its expected return has fallen relative to Microsoft stock; (d) more, because it has
become less risky relative to stocks; (e) less, because its expected return has fallen.
3. (a) More, because it has become more liquid; (b) less, because it has become more risky; (c) more,
because its expected return has risen; (d) more, because its expected return has risen relative to the
expected return on long-term bonds, which has declined.
4. (a) More, because the bonds have become more liquid; (b) more, because their expected return has
risen relative to stocks; (c) less, because they have become less liquid relative to stocks; (d) less,
because their expected return has fallen; (e) more, because they have become more liquid.
5. The rise in the value of stocks would increase people’s wealth and therefore the demand for
Rembrandts would rise.
6. True, because the benefits to diversification are greater for a person who cares more about reducing
risk.
7. True, because for a risk averse person, more risk, a lower expected return, and less liquidity make
a security less desirable.
8. Interest rates fall. The increased volatility of gold prices makes bonds relatively less risky relative to
gold and causes the demand for bonds to increase. The demand curve, Bd, shifts to the right and the
equilibrium interest rate falls.
9. Interest rates would rise. A sudden increase in people’s expectations of future real estate prices raises
the expected return on real estate relative to bonds, so the demand for bonds falls. The demand curve
Bd shifts to the left, bond prices fall, and the equilibrium interest rate rises.
10. Interest rates should rise. The large federal deficits require the Treasury to issue more bonds; thus the
supply of bonds increases. The supply curve, Bs, shifts to the right and the equilibrium interest rate rises.
Some economists believe that when the Treasury issues more bonds, the demand for bonds increases
because the issue of bonds increases the public’s wealth. If this is the case, the demand curve, Bd, will
also shift to the right, and it is no longer clear that the equilibrium interest rate will rise. Thus there is
some potential ambiguity in the answer to this question.
11. Given the answer to question 10 above, the supply effect of large deficits should lead to higher interest
rates. The effects of the economic crisis lead to significantly lower wealth and income, which depressed
Treasury bond demand, but also decreased corporate bond supply by even more because investment
opportunities collapsed. The larger leftward shift in the bond supply curve than the rightward shift in
the bond demand curve would then result in a rise in bond prices and a fall in interest rates. In addition,
due to the severity of the global crisis, U.S. treasury debt became a safe haven investment, reducing
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
73
relative risk and increasing liquidity for U.S. treasury debt. This significantly raised U.S. treasury bond
demand, leading to higher bond prices and significantly lower yields. In other words, the decrease in
investment opportunities and risk factors significantly offset the wealth effect on demand and the
deficit effect on supply.
12. Yes, interest rates will rise. The lower commission on stocks makes them more liquid relative to
bonds, and the demand for bonds will fall. The demand curve Bd will therefore shift to the left,
and the equilibrium interest rate will rise.
13. If the public believes the president’s program will be successful, interest rates will fall. The president’s
announcement will lower expected inflation so that the expected return on goods decreases relative
to bonds. The demand for bonds increases and the demand curve, Bd, shifts to the right. For a given
nominal interest rate, the lower expected inflation means that the real interest rate has risen, raising
the cost of borrowing so that the supply of bonds falls. The resulting leftward shift of the supply curve,
Bs, and the rightward shift of the demand curve, Bd, causes the equilibrium interest rate to fall.
14. Interest rates will rise. The expected increase in stock prices raises the expected return on stocks
relative to bonds and so the demand for bonds falls. The demand curve, Bd, shifts to the left and the
equilibrium interest rate rises.
15. Interest rates will rise. When bond prices become volatile and bonds become riskier, the demand for
bonds will fall. The demand curve Bd will shift to the left, the price will fall, and the equilibrium
interest rate will rise.
16. Yes, fiscal policymakers should worry about potentially inflationary conditions. If people expect
higher inflation, this increases the yield on U.S. treasury debt, meaning that the interest rates paid
to debt holders increase. In other words, higher inflation leads to a higher debt service burden and
increases the costs of financing deficit spending.
17. When the price level rises, the quantity of money in real terms falls (holding the nominal supply of
money constant); to restore their holdings of money in real terms to their former level, people will
want to hold a greater nominal quantity of money. Thus the money demand curve Md shifts to the
right, and the interest rate rises.
18. The slower rate of money growth will lead to a liquidity effect, which raises interest rates, while the
lower price level, income, and inflation rates in the future will tend to lower interest rates. There are
three possible scenarios for what will happen: (a) if the liquidity effect is larger than the other effects,
then interest rates will rise; (b) if the liquidity effect is smaller than the other effects and expected
inflation adjusts slowly, then interest rates will rise at first but will eventually fall below their initial
level; and (c) if the liquidity effect is smaller than the expected inflation effect and there is rapid
adjustment of expected inflation, then interest rates will immediately fall.
19. With unusually high rates of money growth, this should lead to higher expected inflation, a jump in
the overall price level, and stronger economic growth. These factors should all result in interest rates
rising over time, notwithstanding the liquidity effect. However, in the period from 2008 to 2010,
unemployment remained high, economic growth was weak, and if anything, policymakers were
worried about deflation (a decrease in the price level) rather than any inflationary effects from the
money growth. In other words, the income, price-level, and expected inflation effects of the unusually
high money growth conditions were very small relative to the liquidity effect. This is similar to case
(a) shown in Figure 11.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
20. (a) The expected return on the stock portfolio is 0.25(12%)  0.25(10%)  0.25(8%)  0.25(6%)  9%.
The expected return on the bond portfolio is 0.6(10%)  0.4(7.5%)  9%. The expected return on the
commodities portfolio is 0.2(20%)  0.25(12%)  0.25(6%)  0.25(4%)  0.05(0%)  9.5%. Since the
commodities portfolio has the higher expected return, you should choose that. (b) In choosing between
the stock or bond portfolio, they both have the same expected return. However, since there is less
uncertainty over the outcomes in the bond portfolio than the stock portfolio, a risk-averse individual
should choose the bond portfolio.
21. When the Fed sells bonds to the public, it increases the supply of bonds, thus shifting the supply
curve Bs to the right. The result is that the intersection of the supply and demand curves Bs and Bd
occurs at a lower price and a higher equilibrium interest rate, and the interest rate rises. With the
liquidity preference framework, the decrease in the money supply shifts the money supply curve Ms
to the left, and the equilibrium interest rate rises. The answer from bond supply and demand analysis
is consistent with the answer from the liquidity preference framework.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
75
22. In the bond framework, when the economy booms, the demand for bonds increases. The public’s
income and wealth rises while the supply of bonds also increases, because firms have more attractive
investment opportunities. Both the supply and demand curves (Bd and Bs) shift to the right (shown in
graph below), but as is indicated in the text, the demand curve probably shifts less than the supply curve
so the equilibrium interest rate rises. Similarly, when the economy enters a recession, both the supply
and demand curves shift to the left, but the demand curve shifts less than the supply curve so that the
interest rate falls. The conclusion is that interest rates rise during booms and fall during recessions:
that is, interest rates are procyclical. The same answer is found with the liquidity preference framework.
When the economy booms, the demand for money increases (shown in graph below); people need more
money to carry out an increased amount of transactions and also because their wealth has risen. The
demand curve, Md, thus shifts to the right, raising the equilibrium interest rate. When the economy
enters a recession, the demand for money falls and the demand curve shifts to the left, lowering the
equilibrium interest rate. Again, interest rates are seen to be procyclical.
23. In the bond supply and demand analysis, the increased riskiness of bonds lowers the demand for bonds.
The demand curve Bd shifts to the left, and the equilibrium interest rate rises. The same answer is found
in the liquidity preference framework. The increased riskiness of bonds relative to money increases
the demand for money. The money demand curve Md shifts to the right, and the equilibrium interest
rate rises.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
24. (a) Solving for the equilibrium gives:
0.6 Quantity  1140  Quantity  700;
1.6 Quantity  440; or Quantity  275.
Using the bond supply equation Price  275  700  975. (b) The expected interest rate on a one-year
discount bond with face value of $1000 and current price of $975 is given as i  (1000  975)/975 
0.0256, or 2.56%.
25. (a) The monetary policy action, essentially an open market operation, increases the supply of bonds
in the market by a quantity of 80, at any given price. Thus, the bond supply equation will become
Quantity  Price  700  80, so that Price  Quantity  620. (b) As a result of the Federal Reserve
action, the new equilibrium is given as:
0.6 Quantity  1140  Quantity  620;
1.6 Quantity  520; or Quantity  325.
Using the bond supply curve, Price  325  620  945. Thus, the expected interest rate on a one-year
discount bond with face value of $1000 and current price of $945 is given as i  (1000  945)/945 
0.0582, or 5.82%. This is an increase from 2.56% in the initial equilibrium, which was calculated in
the answer to the previous question. Note that as we will see in Chapter 14, the open market sale leads
to a decline in the money supply and so the liquidity preference framework would then also indicate
that the interest rate would rise.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
77
Chapter 6
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Junk bonds are referred to as “junk” in that they are very risky investments, but provide high yields to
investors who buy them at very low prices and are therefore compensated with a high risk premium.
2. The bond with a C rating should have a higher interest rate because it has a higher default risk, which
reduces its demand and raises its interest rate relative to that on the Baa bond.
3. U.S. Treasury bills have lower default risk and more liquidity than negotiable CDs. Consequently,
the demand for Treasury bills is higher, and they have a lower interest rate.
4. The risk of default would significantly decrease demand for AIG corporate debt, resulting in a much
higher yield. After the announcement that the government would provide extraordinary assistance to
support AIG and keep it from failing, demand for its corporate debt would rise, and yields would fall.
5. During business cycle booms, fewer corporations go bankrupt and there is less default risk on corporate
bonds, which lowers their risk premium. Conversely, during recessions default risk on corporate bonds
increases and their risk premium increases. The risk premium on corporate bonds is thus anticyclical,
rising during recessions and falling during booms.
6. True. When bonds of different maturities are close substitutes, a rise in interest rates for one bond
causes the interest rates for others to rise because the expected returns on bonds of different maturities
cannot get too far out of line.
7. Since TIPS bonds are traded much more lightly than their nominal counterparts, demand for these
bonds is somewhat lower than comparable U.S. treasuries; hence the higher yield (controlling for the
effects of inflation) represents a liquidity premium. Note that because this liquidity effect is relatively
small, inflation compensation will generally be larger than the liquidity premium, implying that nominal
bond yields overall will be higher than TIPS of comparable maturity.
8. The government guarantee will reduce the default risk on corporate bonds, making them more
desirable relative to Treasury securities. The increased demand for corporate bonds and decreased
demand for Treasury securities will lower interest rates on corporate bonds and raise them on
Treasury bonds.
9. Lower brokerage commissions for corporate bonds would make them more liquid and thus increase
their demand, which would lower their risk premium.
10. The global financial crisis hit financial companies very suddenly and very hard, creating much
uncertainty about the soundness of the financial system, and doubt about the soundness of even the
most healthy banks and financial companies. As a result, there was a sharp decrease in demand for
financial commercial paper relative to the seemingly safer nonfinancial commercial paper. This
resulted in a spike in the yield spread between the two, reflecting the greater risk of financial
company investments.
11. Abolishing the tax-exempt feature of municipal bonds would make them less desirable relative to
Treasury bonds. The resulting decline in the demand for municipal bonds and increase in demand for
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78
Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Treasury bonds would raise the interest rates on municipal bonds, while the interest rates on Treasury
bonds would fall.
12. Credit rating agencies had a conflict of interest which was said to contribute to the crisis in that the
rating agencies had an incentive to provide overly optimistic ratings to clients whom they also
advised. Similarly, the way in which lenders and the house inspection process occurred provided
incentives for the house inspectors to provide overly optimistic assessments of the value of housing to
ensure continued work in the future, and at the same time mortgage lenders benefitted because it
continued the cycle of creating and selling mortgages as long as housing value was maintained.
13. False. The expectations theory of the term structure implies that, with a $1 investment in one-period
bonds over two years, the expected return is given as it  ite1 , which equals 2it assuming that oneperiod bond rates are expected to be the same across both periods. With a $1 investment in a two-period
bond, the expected return is 2i2t . Thus, only if the (expected) one-period bond rate for both periods is
greater than the expected two-period bond rate will one-period bonds be a better investment.
14. (a) Under the expectations theory of the term structure, if 30-year bonds become less desirable, this will
increase the demand for bonds of other maturities, since they are viewed as perfect substitutes. The
result is higher price and lower yield at all other maturities, and an increase in yield at the end of the
yield curve. In other words, the yield curve would steepen at the end, and flatten somewhat along
the rest of the curve. (b) Under the segmented markets theory, the assumption is that each type of bond
maturity is an independent market, and therefore not linked in any particular way. Thus changes in long
rates won’t affect shorter- and medium-term bond yields. Thus, the yield curve under the segmented
markets theory will result in a jump in the 30-year rate, with the remainder of the yield curve unchanged.
15. Investor A, even though she receives a lower expected return, clearly prefers to hold short-term debt,
perhaps because it is more liquid. Investor A’s preferences are consistent with the segmented markets
theory. Investor B is apparently maximizing expected return, but since he is indifferent between the
five- and ten-year bonds, Investor B doesn’t appear to favor any particular maturity, and so views
the five- and ten-year bonds as essentially perfect substitutes, an assumption consistent with the
expectations theory of the term structure.
16. The flat yield curve at shorter maturities suggests that short-term interest rates are expected to fall
moderately in the near future, while the steep upward slope of the yield curve at longer maturities
indicates that interest rates further into the future are expected to rise. Because interest rates and
expected inflation move together, the yield curve suggests that the market expects inflation to fall
moderately in the near future but to rise later on.
17. The steep upward-sloping yield curve at shorter maturities suggests that short-term interest rates are
expected to rise moderately in the near future because the initial, steep upward slope indicates that the
average of expected short-term interest rates in the near future are above the current short-term interest
rate. The downward slope for longer maturities indicates that short-term interest rates are eventually
expected to fall sharply. With a positive risk premium on long-term bonds, as in the preferred habitat
theory, a downward slope of the yield curve occurs only if the average of expected short-term interest
rates is declining, which occurs only if short-term interest rates are expected to fall far into the future.
Since interest rates and expected inflation move together, the yield curve suggests that the market
expects inflation to rise moderately in the near future but fall later on.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
79
18. If yield curves on average were flat, this would suggest that the risk premium on long-term relative to
short-term bonds would equal zero and we would be more willing to accept the expectations hypothesis.
19. You would raise your predictions of future interest rates, because the higher long-term rates imply
that the average of the expected future short-term rates is higher.
20. The slope of the yield curve would fall because the drop in expected future short rates means that the
average of expected future short rates falls so that the long rate falls.
21. If the Federal Reserve purchases a significant amount of longer-term treasury debt, this will reduce the
effective supply of treasuries of those particular maturities, resulting in a higher price and lower yield.
This should have the effect of lowering the “long end” of the curve, decreasing medium and longerterm yields. In other words, the yield curve will shift down, but mostly on medium and long-term
maturities.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
22. As the risk of default by the Greek government increased, this reduced the demand for Greek bonds
relative to U.S. treasuries. The result was lower prices and higher yields of Greek debt relative to
U.S. debt, similar to the graphs in Figure 2 shown in the text.
23. (a) The yield to maturity would be 5% for a one-year bond, 6% for a two-year bond, 6.33% for a
three-year bond, 6.5% for a four-year bond, and 6.6% for a five-year bond. (b) The yield to maturity
would be 5% for a one-year bond, 4.5% for a two-year bond. 4.33% for a three-year bond, 4.25% for
a four-year bond, and 4.2% for a five-year bond. The upward sloping yield curve in (a) would be even
steeper if people preferred short-term bonds over long-term bonds, because long-term bonds would then
have a positive liquidity premium. The downward-sloping yield curve in (b) would be less steep and
might have a slight positive upward slope if the long-term bonds have a positive liquidity premium.
24. (a) The yield to maturity would be 5% for a one-year bond, 5.5% for a two-year bond, 6% for a threeyear bond, 6% for a four-year bond, and 5.8% for a five-year bond; (b) the yield to maturity would be
5% for a one-year bond, 4.5% for a two-year bond, 4% for a three-year bond, 4% for a four-year bond,
and 4.2% for a five-year bond. The upward- and then downward-sloping yield curve in (a) would tend
to be even more upward sloping if people preferred short-term bonds over long-term bonds because
long-term bonds would then have a positive risk premium. The downward- and then upward-sloping
yield curve in (b) also would tend to be more upward sloping because of the positive risk premium
for long-term bonds.
25. The liquidity premium for a given year is the current rate on a multi-year horizon bond minus the
average of expected one year interest rates over that horizon. Thus, the liquidity premiums for each
year are given as:
l11  2  2/1  0%.
l21  3  (3  2)/2  0.5%.
l31  5  (4  3  2)/3  2%.
l41  6  (6  4  3  2)/4  2.25%.
l51  8  (7  6  4  3  2)/5  3.6%.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 7
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. The value of any investment is found by computing the value today of all cash flows the investment
will generate over its life.
2. There are two cash flows from stock: periodic dividends and a future sales price. Dividends are
frequently changed when a firm’s earnings either rise or fall, which can make them difficult to
estimate. The future sales price is also difficult to estimate, because it depends on the dividends that
will be paid at some date even further in the future. Bond cash flows also consist of two parts, periodic
interest payments and a final maturity payment. These payments are established in writing at the time
the bonds are issued and cannot be changed without the firm defaulting and being subject to bankruptcy.
Stock prices tend to be more volatile, because their cash flows are more subject to change.
3. A stock market bubble can occur if market participants either believe that dividends will have rapid
growth or if they substantially lower the required return on their equity investments, thus lowering the
denominator in the Gordon model and thereby causing stock prices to climb. By raising interest rates
the central bank can cause the required rate of return on equity to rise, thereby keeping stock prices
from climbing as much. Also raising interest rates may help slow the expected growth rate of the
economy and hence of dividends, thus also keeping stock prices from climbing.
4. With more certainty over the course future interest rates will follow, uncertainty and risk would likely
be reduced, which will lower the required return on investment ke and lead to a higher stock price. In
addition, with a reduction in the uncertainty of future short-term interest rates, this would likely lower
longer-term interest rates, increasing capital investment. This would likely raise long-run economic
growth and dividend growth, also pushing stock prices higher.
5. False. Expectations can be highly inaccurate and still be rational, because optimal forecasts are not
necessarily accurate: A forecast is optimal if it is the best possible even if the forecast errors are large.
6. Although Joe’s expectations are typically quite accurate, they could still be improved by his taking
account of a snowfall in his forecasts. Since his expectations could be improved, they are not optimal
and hence are not rational expectations.
7. No, because he could improve the accuracy of his forecasts by predicting that tomorrow’s interest
rates will be identical to today’s. His forecasts are therefore not optimal, and he does not have
rational expectations.
8. True, as an approximation. If large changes in a stock price could be predicted, then the optimal
forecast of the stock return would not equal the equilibrium return for that stock. In this case, there
would be unexploited profit opportunities in the market and expectations would not be rational. Very
small changes in stock prices could be predictable, however, and the optimal forecast of returns would
equal the equilibrium return. In this case, an unexploited profit opportunity would not exist.
9. No, you shouldn’t buy stocks, because the rise in the money supply is publicly available information
that will be already incorporated into stock prices. Hence you cannot expect to earn more than the
equilibrium return on stocks by acting on the money supply information.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
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10. The stock price will rise. Even though the company is suffering a loss, the price of the stock reflects
an even larger expected loss. When the loss is less than expected, efficient markets theory then
indicates that the stock price will rise.
11. No, because this is publicly available information and is already reflected in stock prices. The optimal
forecast of stock returns will equal the equilibrium return, so there is no benefit from selling your stocks.
12. Probably not. Although your broker has done well in the past, efficient markets theory suggests that
she has probably been lucky. Unless you believe that your broker has better information than the rest
of the market, efficient markets theory indicates that you cannot expect the broker to beat the market
in the future.
13. No, if the person has no better information than the rest of the market. An expected price rise of 10%
over the next month implies over a 100% annual return on Google stock, which certainly exceeds its
equilibrium return. This would mean that there is an unexploited profit opportunity in the market, which
would have been eliminated in an efficient market. The only time that the person’s expectations could
be rational is if the person had information unavailable to the market that allowed him or her to beat
the market.
14. False. All that is required for the market to be efficient so that prices reflect information on the
monetary aggregates is that some market participants eliminate unexploited profit opportunities.
Not everyone in a market has to be knowledgeable for the market to be efficient.
15. False. The people with better information are exactly those who make the market more efficient by
eliminating unexploited profit opportunities. These people can profit from their better information.
16. Because inflation is less than expected, expectations of future short-term interest rates would be
lowered, and as we learned in Chapter 7, long-term interest rates would fall. The decline in long-term
interest rates implies that long-term bond prices would rise.
17. True, in principle. Foreign exchange rates are a random walk over a short interval such as a week,
because changes in the exchange rate are unpredictable; if a change were predictable, large unexploited
profit opportunities would exists in the foreign exchange market. If the foreign exchange market is
efficient, these unexploited profit opportunities cannot exist and so the foreign exchange rate will
approximately follow a random walk.
18. No, because this expected change in the value of the dollar would imply that there is a huge unexploited
profit opportunity (over a 100% expected return at an annual rate). Since rational expectations rules
out unexploited profit opportunities, such a big expected change in the exchange rate could not exist.
19. False. Although human fear may be the source of stock market crashes, that does not imply that there
are unexploited profit opportunities in the market. Nothing in rational expectations theory rules out
large changes in stock prices as a result of fears on the part of the investing public.
20. It may be considered a bubble in that stock market prices rose well above true fundamental values.
However, given the relatively new and rapid technology advances during the time, there was a great
deal of uncertainty over what the true fundamental values of many technology-related companies
were. Thus, even though it might be easy to identify the bubble after the fact, the efficient market
hypothesis could still hold in that market participants were at the time acting on the best information
available in valuing the stocks, considering much of the technology was new and had seemingly
unlimited growth potential.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
21. Behavioral finance suggests that when stock prices rise, market participants are less likely to engage
in short sales, which would otherwise capture unexploited profit opportunities and push misaligned
stock prices back down to fundamental values. This is due to the notion that people are more averse
to downside risk than upside risk, and since short sellers can incur nearly unlimited losses, very little
short selling occurs in practice. In addition, short selling is sometimes seen as taboo, since it is
viewed as profiting off the losses of others.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
22. $1/(1.15)  $20/(1.15)  $18.26
23. P0  $3  (1.07)/(0.18  0.07)  $29.18
24. The price five years from now should be $100. This can be found by solving for P5 below:
$65.88  $1/(1  0.1)  $1/(1  0.1)2  $1/(1  0.1)3  $1/(1  0.1)4  $1/(1  0.1)5  P5/(1  0.1)5.
No, the current stock price will not increase by the full dollar. Since the future stock price is
discounted by the required return, the current stock price will only increase by $1/(1  0.1)5, or $0.62.
25. Prior to the split, each share was worth $5 billion/100 million, or $50/share. If the split conveys no new
information, the market value of the company does not change, remaining at $5 billion. But with the
split, every share becomes three shares, so 300 million shares are outstanding. The new price/share is
$5 billion/300 million, or $16.67/share. If the actual price is $17.00/share, the price appears too high.
This can be viewed two ways. One possibility is that markets are inefficient—some type of anomaly
has occurred, and it’s not clear if the market will correct itself. Another possibility is that the stock
split actually conveyed information about the company. Investors may believe (possibly incorrectly)
that the price/share is expected to increase significantly, and that is why the firm implemented the
stock split.
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Chapter 8
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. For each country, the largest (most important) is listed first, and smallest (least important) is listed
second, as reported in Figure 1 in the text. United States: Nonbank loans; Stocks. Germany: Bank
loans; Bonds. Japan: Bank loans; Stocks. Canada: Bank loans; Stocks. For the United States, bank
loans are relatively unimportant, but for the other countries, this makes up a very large part of overall
external financing. For these countries (with the exception of the United States), stock and bond
financing is relatively unimportant.
2. Financial intermediaries can take advantage of economies of scale and thus lower transactions costs.
For example, mutual funds take advantage of lower commissions because the scale of their purchases
is higher than for an individual, while banks’ large scale allows them to keep legal and computing
costs per transaction low. Economies of scale which help financial intermediaries lower transactions
costs explains why financial intermediaries exist and are so important to the economy.
3. Financial intermediaries develop expertise in such areas as computer technology so that they can
inexpensively provide liquidity services such as checking accounts that lower transactions costs for
depositors. Financial intermediaries can also take advantage of economies of scale and engage in
large transactions that have a lower cost per dollar of transaction.
4. Investors in financial instruments who engage in information collection face a free-rider problem,
which means other investors may be able to benefit from their information without paying for it.
Individual investors therefore have inadequate incentives to devote resources to gather information
about borrowers who issue securities. Financial intermediaries avoid the free-rider problem because
they make private loans to borrowers rather than buy the securities borrowers have issued. Since they
will reap all the benefits from the information they collect, their information collection activities will
be more profitable. They thus have greater incentive to invest in information collection.
5. During your visit at the bank you will probably realize that you will receive an annual interest rate of
1% or 2% if you buy a certificate of deposit, while an individual asking for a car loan will be required
to pay an annual interest rate of 7% or 8%. At the beginning, it seems tempting for you to offer an
interest rate of 4%, which would make both of you better off. However, you would probably like to
know that individual better, in particular his net worth (to assess his ability to pay you back), or his
credit history (has he or she defaulted on a loan before?). This process will probably be time consuming
and costly for you. Even if you decide to engage in this transaction anyway, you will probably want
to write a contract to be able to recover your money if this individual does not pay you back. As before,
this will be costly. Your local bank is much more efficient in dealing with the adverse selection and
moral hazard problems created by asymmetric information, so much so that you are better off by
buying a certificate of deposit and avoiding all the transaction costs associated with making a loan.
6. Yes, this is an example of an adverse selection problem. Because a person is rich, the people who are
most likely to want to marry him or her are gold diggers. Rich people thus may want to be extra careful
to screen out those who are just interested in their money from those who want to marry for love.
7. The lemons problem would be less severe for firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange because
they are typically larger corporations that are better known in the market place. Therefore it is easier
for investors to get information about them and figure out whether the firm is of good quality or is a
lemon. This makes the adverse selection–lemons problem less severe.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
8. Yes. The person who is putting her life savings into her business has more to lose if she takes on too
much risk or engages in personally beneficial activities that don’t lead to higher profits. So she will
act more in the interest of the lender, making it more likely that the loan will be paid off.
9. To overcome asymmetric information problems, banks screen potential borrowers before making loans
(to lessen adverse selection problems), monitor borrowers’ financial conditions and how they are using
borrowed funds after making loans (to lessen moral hazard problems), insert restrictive clauses into
debt contracts to limit borrowers’ behavior (to lessen moral hazard), and require collateral against the
loans they make (to lessen both adverse selection and moral hazard problems).
10. The government can produce information about borrowers and provide it to investors free of charge,
it can require borrowers to report honest information about themselves to investors, and it can set and
enforce rules that govern the behavior of financial institutions so they do not take on too much risk.
These prudential regulations for banks include banning certain activities and asset categories considered
too risky, establishing minimum capital requirements, and requiring disclosure of financial information
to regulators and investors.
11. Even though banks are well suited to overcome the adverse selection and moral hazard problems
inherent in lending because they make private loans and have incentives to invest in information
production about the borrowers to whom they lend, bank depositors face an asymmetric information
problem of their own: They do not know as much as bank managers do about how much risk banks are
taking and are uncertain about the safety of their deposits and their banks’ ability to pay them back in
full. If some banks fail because they have become insolvent and cannot repay their deposits, these bank
failures increase the uncertainty facing all depositors, who lack the information needed to determine
whether their banks (and their deposits) are safe or not. This increase in uncertainty, the result of
asymmetric information, can lead to bank runs in which depositors are scrambling to withdraw their
deposits before their banks run out of cash, and in extreme cases can lead to a contagion in which a
large number of banks fail within a short period of time.
12. Information asymmetries are also present in government bond markets. Usually investors resort to
many information sources about the characteristics of particular governments to assess their ability or
willingness to honor their debt. As the Argentinean case illustrates, sometimes this lack of information
results in huge losses for bondholders. In this respect, the problem is not significantly different from
an investor who decides which corporate bond to buy, although it may be fair to say that information
about corporate bonds is more standardized (making it easier to compare firms). After the Argentinean
default, investors were willing to buy bonds issued by its government only at a significant risk premium,
making it very costly for Argentina to raise funds in bond markets.
13. The free-rider problem means that private producers of information will not obtain the full benefit of
their information-producing activities, and so less information will be produced. This means that there
will be less information collected to screen out good from bad risks, making adverse selection problems
worse, and that there will be less monitoring of borrowers, increasing the moral hazard problem.
14. No. If the lender knows as much about the borrower as the borrower does, then the lender is able to
screen out the good from the bad credit risks and so adverse selection will not be a problem. Similarly,
if the lender knows what the borrower is up to, then moral hazard will not be a problem because the
lender can easily stop the borrower from engaging in moral hazard.
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15. Standardized accounting principles make profit verification easier, thereby reducing adverse selection
and moral hazard problems in financial markets, hence making them operate better. Standardized
accounting principles make it easier for investors to screen out good firms from bad firms, thereby
reducing the adverse selection problem in financial markets. In addition, they make it harder for
managers to over- or understate profits, thereby reducing the principal-agent (moral hazard) problem.
16. Smaller firms that are not well known are the most likely to use bank financing. Because it is harder
for investors to acquire information about these firms, it will be hard for the firms to sell securities in
financial markets. Banks that specialize in collecting information about smaller firms will then be the
only outlet these firms have for financing their activities.
17. Because there is asymmetric information and the free-rider problem, not enough information is
available in financial markets. Thus there is a rationale for the government to encourage information
production through regulation so that it is easier to screen out good from bad borrowers, thereby
reducing the adverse selection problem. The government can also help reduce moral hazard and
improve the performance of financial markets by enforcing standard accounting principles and
prosecuting fraud.
18. True. If the borrower turns out to be a bad credit risk and goes broke, the lender loses less, because
the collateral can be sold to make up any losses on the loan. Thus adverse selection is not as severe
a problem.
19. The separation of ownership and control creates a principal-agent problem. The managers (the agents)
do not have as strong an incentive to maximize profits as the owners (the principals). Thus the managers
might not work hard, might engage in wasteful spending on personal perks, or might pursue business
strategies that enhance their personal power but do not increase profits.
20. Although it might seem a good idea to “copy and paste” regulatory frameworks that ensure the
soundness of a financial system from one country to the other, this is usually not a good idea.
Developed and developing countries have quite different financial systems. Incorporating a system
of deposit insurance will surely result in an increase in deposits at financial intermediaries. However,
without proper regulations (i.e., prudential regulation and supervision) to limit the moral hazard
problems associated with a system of deposit insurance, banks will probably accept more risks than
they would otherwise do. This is obviously not a desired consequence. The increase in moral hazard
problems will probably offset the benefit derived from avoiding bank runs (the most immediate
effect of a system of deposit insurance).
21. Financial intermediaries operating in countries with relatively weak property rights and legal systems
usually require a lot of collateral when making loans. The rationale for that behavior is that in the event
that the borrower defaults, the bank knows that it will be quite difficult and expensive to recover its
loan. Therefore, requesting extra collateral might help the bank speed up the process. In practice, a bank
that has requested two other houses as collateral for a mortgage has better chances to recover its loan
in the event of default. Of course this means that fewer individuals will have access to mortgages
(even those with excellent credit risk are left out), since it is quite difficult to come up with such an
amount of collateral (usually having your parents as cosigners and using your parents’ house as
collateral is not enough). Inefficient financial systems make access to credit much more difficult in
some countries, but it is fair to say that this might be the result of inefficient legal systems. As
explained earlier, inefficient financial systems contribute to lower economic growth rates. This
example illustrates how difficult it can be for a young individual to buy a house, resulting in less
expenditure in residential investment.
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ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
22. You are willing to pay the average price. If the distribution of car values is symmetric, you are
willing to pay $22,000 for a randomly selected car.
23. You are willing to pay the average price up front: $22,000. However, the dealer will know this, and
only sell you a car worth between $20,000 and $22,000. But you know this. So you will only pay
$21,000. And so on. This ends with you paying $20,000, and the car being worth $20,000. This is OK
for you, but the dealer can never sell cars worth more than $20,000. The resolution, of course, is to get
more information. This may include a test drive, mechanical inspection, warranty, etc.
24. Let P be the percent of profits you pay Ron. If Ron is lazy, his expected payment is
0.60  10,000 P  0.40  50,000 P  26,000 P
If Ron works hard, his expected payment is
0.20  10,000 P  0.80  50,000 P  1,000  42,000 P  1,000
To induce Ron to work hard, you need
42,000 P  1,000  26,000 P
16,000 P  1,000
P  0.0625
So, offer Ron slightly more than 6.25% of the profits, and this should induce him to work hard.
25. With full insurance:
Without a seawall, the expected loss is
400,000  0.02  8,000
With a seawall, the expected loss is
400,000  0.005  2,000
The insurance company will charge the expected loss as a premium. Your expected cost under either
scenario each year is the premium.
With partial insurance:
Without a seawall, the expected loss is
300,000  0.02  6,000
With a seawall, the expected loss is
300,000  0.005  1,500
The insurance company will charge the expected loss as a premium. Your expected cost each year is:
Without a seawall:
[0.02  (300,000  400,000)  0.98(0)]  6,000  8,000
With a seawall:
[0.005  (300,000  400,000)  0.98(0)]  1,500  2,000
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
Unfortunately, neither insurance policy is better or worse. Although the premiums under the partial
insurance policy are lower, the expected cost each year is the same as with full insurance. In either
scenario, you will build the seawall if the annual cost of building and maintaining a seawall is less
than $6,000/year.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 9
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Asymmetric information problems (adverse selection and moral hazard) are always present in
financial transactions but normally do not prevent the financial system from efficiently channeling
funds from lender-savers to borrowers. During a financial crisis, however, asymmetric information
problems intensify to such a degree that the resulting financial frictions lead to flows of funds being
halted or severely disrupted, with harmful consequences for economic activity.
2. When an asset-price bubble bursts and asset prices realign with fundamental economic values, the
resulting decline in net worth means that businesses have less skin in the game and so have incentives
to take on more risk at the lender’s expense, increasing the moral hazard problem. In addition, lower
net worth means there is less collateral and so adverse selection increases. The bursting of an asset-price
bubble therefore makes borrowers less credit-worthy and causes a contraction in lending and spending.
The asset price bust can also lead to a deterioration in financial institutions’ balance sheets, which
causes them to deleverage, further contributing to the decline in lending and economic activity.
3. An unanticipated decline in the price level leads to firms’ real burden of indebtedness increasing while
there is no increase in the real value of their assets. The resulting decline in firms’ net worth increases
adverse selection and moral hazard problems facing lenders, making it more likely a financial crisis
will occur in which financial markets do not work efficiently to get funds to firms with productive
investment opportunities.
4. A decline in real estate prices lowers the net worth of households or firms that are holding real estate
assets. The resulting decline in net worth means that businesses have less at risk and so have more
incentives to take on risk at the lender’s expense. In addition, lower net worth means there is less
collateral and so adverse selection increases. The decline in real estate prices can thus make borrowers
less credit-worthy and cause a contraction in lending and spending. The real estate decline can also
lead to a deterioration in financial institutions’ balance sheets, which causes them to deleverage, further
contributing to the decline in lending and economic activity.
5. If financial institutions suffer a deterioration in their balance sheets and they have a substantial
contraction in their capital, they will have fewer resources to lend, and lending will decline. The
contraction in lending then leads to a decline in investment spending, which slows economic activity.
When there are simultaneous failures of financial institutions, there is a loss of information production
in financial markets and a direct loss of banks’ financial intermediation. In addition, a decrease in bank
lending during a banking crisis decreases the supply of funds available to borrowers, which leads to
higher interest rates, which increases asymmetric information problems and leads to a further
contraction in lending and economic activity.
6. The failure of a major financial institution, which leads to a dramatic increase in uncertainty in financial
markets, makes it hard for lenders to screen good from bad credit risks. The resulting inability of lenders
to solve the adverse selection problem makes them less willing to lend, which leads to a decline in
lending, investment, and aggregate economic activity.
7. Credit spreads measure the difference between interest rates on corporate bonds and Treasury bonds of
similar maturity that have no default risk. The rise of credit spreads during a financial crisis (as occurred
during the Great Depression and again during 2007–2009) reflects the escalation of asymmetric
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
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information problems that make it harder to judge the riskiness of corporate borrowers and weaken the
ability of financial markets to channel funds to borrowers with productive investment opportunities.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
8. Government fiscal imbalances may create fears of default on government debt. As a result, demand
from individual investors for the government bonds may fall, causing the government to force financial
institutions to purchase them. If the debt then declines in price, as will occur if a government default is
likely—financial institutions’ balance sheets will weaken and their lending will contract for the reasons
described earlier. Fears of default on the government debt can also spark a foreign exchange crisis in
which the value of the domestic currency falls sharply because investors pull their money out of the
country. The decline in the domestic currency’s value will then lead to the destruction of the balance
sheets of firms with large amounts of debt denominated in foreign currency. These balance sheet
problems lead to an increase in adverse selection and moral hazard problems, a decline in lending,
and a contraction of economic activity.
9. With restrictions lifted or the introduction of new financial products, financial institutions often go on
a lending spree and expand their lending at a rapid pace. Unfortunately, the managers of these financial
institutions may not have the expertise to manage risk appropriately in these new lines of business,
leading to overly risky lending. In addition, regulation and government supervision may not keep up
with the new activities, further leading to excessive risk taking. When loans eventually go sour, this
causes a deterioration in financial institutions’ balance sheets, a decrease in lending, and therefore a
decrease in economic activity.
10. Weak regulation and supervision mean that financial institutions will take on excessive risk, especially
if market discipline is weakened by the existence of a government safety net. When the risky loans
eventually go sour, this causes a deterioration in financial institution balance sheets, which then means
that these institutions cut back lending and economic activity declines.
11. Answers may vary. Both the Great Depression and the 2007–2009 crisis were preceded by sharp
increases in asset prices. During the two episodes, credit spreads widened, the availability of credit
shrank, and economic activity sharply declined. The two episodes differ in the source of asset price
increases: During the Great Depression, rising stock prices were the trigger, whereas in the recent
crisis a housing bubble was the primary trigger. During the Great Depression, many bank failures
lead to a bank panic, causing more banks to fail. During the recent crisis, even though the banking
system was hit hard and bank failures did occur, they were much less pronounced, and no bank panic
occurred. Finally, although both episodes resulted in significant declines in GDP and increases in
unemployment, this was much more pronounced during the Great Depression, when unemployment
peaked at 25% (as opposed to the recent crisis, in which the unemployment rate reached 10.2%).
In part, this is the result of Federal Reserve policymakers trying much more aggressively to contain
the financial crisis and reverse the decline in economic activity during the recent crisis than was true
during the Great Depression.
12. Answers may vary. In general, it is believed that the country as a whole probably learned from the
experience of the Great Depression, and have put in place more sophisticated policy frameworks to
help deal with severe economic downturns more effectively. For instance, bank panics, which were
widespread during the Great Depression, were virtually nonexistent during the 2007–2009 crisis; this
is probably due to bank accounts now being insured by the FDIC, when they were not during the Great
Depression. Another factor seems to be the resolve by policymakers not to make the same mistakes
made during the Great Depression by instituting more aggressive, swifter policies to avoid any
contagion effects that would unnecessarily deepen or lengthen the crisis.
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13. The use of data mining to give households numerical credit scores which can be used to predict
defaults and the use of computer technology to bundle together many small mortgage loans and
cheaply package them into securities. Together both enable the origination of subprime mortgages,
which then can be sold off as securities.
14. Because the agent for the investor, the mortgage originator, has little incentive to make sure that the
mortgage is a good credit risk.
15. False. Financial engineering may create financial products that are so complex that it can be hard to
value the cash flows of the underlying assets for a security or to determine who actually owns these
assets. In other words, the increased complexity of structured products can actually destroy information,
thereby making asymmetric information worse in the financial system and increasing the severity of
adverse selection and moral hazard problems.
16. The decline in housing prices led to many subprime borrowers finding that their mortgages were
“underwater” because they owed more on them than their houses were worth. When this happened,
struggling homeowners had tremendous incentives to walk away from their homes and just send the
keys back to the lender. Defaults on mortgages shot up sharply, causing losses to financial institutions
which then deleveraged, causing a collapse in lending.
17. The shadow banking system is composed of hedge funds, investment banks, and other nondepository
financial firms that are not subject to the tight regulatory frameworks of traditional banks. Due to the
light regulation, they had lower capital requirements (if any at all) and were able to take on significantly
more risk than other financial firms. They are important because a large amount of funds flowed
through the shadow banking system to support low interest rates, which fueled some of the housing
bubble. Because of their large presence in financial markets, when credit markets began tightening,
funding from the shadow banking system decreased significantly, which further reduced access to
needed credit.
18. During a financial crisis, asset prices fall, oftentimes very rapidly and unexpectedly. This leads to
the expectation that asset prices may fall further in the future, and increases the uncertainty over the
value of assets put up as collateral. As a result, firms accepting collateral assets require larger and larger
haircuts, or discounts on the value of collateral in expectation of future lower values. This requires firms
to put up increasingly more collateral for the same loans over time. Due to the falling asset prices and
rising haircuts, it becomes a “buyers market” for these rapidly falling assets; any firms needing to raise
funds quickly would then be forced to sell assets at a fraction of their original worth.
19. In both the United States and Ireland, soaring real estate prices fueled by sharp increases in mortgage
lending as a result of lax credit standards created a housing bubble, which eventually collapsed in 2007.
Both countries experienced painful recessions, with unemployment rising to 12.5% in Ireland and
10.2% in the United States.
20. With debt contracts denominated in foreign currency, the debt burden of domestic firms increases
when there is an unanticipated decline in the value of the domestic currency. Since assets are typically
denominated in domestic currency, there is a resulting deterioration in firms’ balance sheets and a
decline in net worth, which then increases adverse selection and moral hazard problems. The increase
in asymmetric information problems leads to a decline in investment and economic activity.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
21. Because in advanced countries, debt is usually long term. When the price level falls real indebtedness
increases, lowering net worth and increasing adverse selection and moral hazard problems. In emerging
market countries, debt tends to be very short-term so that a decline in the price level does not raise real
indebtedness very much because the debt is repriced so frequently.
22. Capital flows from abroad can fuel a credit boom and excessive risk taking. When the credit boom
bursts, there is a deterioration of financial institution balance sheets, which causes a contraction of
lending and economic activity.
23. This is primarily due to “liability dollarization” in which financial firms issue debt denominated in
dollars (or another stable currency). Thus, when there is a currency crisis and the currency collapses,
indebtedness in terms of domestic currency increases, leading to banks and other borrowing financial
firms not being able to pay back loans. The resulting loan losses at creditor banks cause them to fail,
creating a banking crisis. Hence a currency crisis and a banking crisis go hand in hand.
24. The central banks in most emerging market countries have little credibility as inflation fighters. Thus,
a sharp depreciation of the currency after a currency crisis leads to immediate upward pressure on
import prices. A dramatic rise in both actual and expected inflation will likely follow, and hence
interest rates will rise.
25. When the banking system is in trouble, the government and central bank are now between a rock and
a hard place: If they raise interest rates too much, they will destroy their already weakened banks, and
if they don’t, they can’t maintain the value of their currency. Once market participants recognize this,
they know that the government can’t defend its currency so they have a one-way bet and pile on, selling
the currency, leading to a speculative attack and a currency crisis.
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Chapter 10
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Because if the bank borrows too frequently from the Fed, the Fed may restrict its ability to borrow in
the future.
2. The rank from most to least liquid is (c), (b), (a), (d).
3. The $50 million deposit outflow means that reserves fall by $50 million to $25 million. Since required
reserves are $45 million (10% of the $450 million of deposits), your bank needs to acquire $20
million of reserves. You could obtain these reserves by either calling in or selling off $20 million of
loans, borrowing $20 million in discount loans from the Fed, borrowing $20 million from other banks
or corporations, selling $20 million of securities, or some combination of all of these.
4. The bank would rather have the balance sheet shown in this problem, because after it loses $50 million
due to deposit outflow, the bank would still have excess reserves of $5 million: $50 million in reserves
minus required reserves of $45 million (10% of the $450 million of deposits). Thus the bank would
not have to alter its balance sheet further and would not incur any costs as a result of the deposit
outflow. By contrast, with the balance sheet in question 3 the bank would have a shortfall of reserves
of $20 million ($25 million in reserves minus the required reserves of $45 million). In this case, the
bank will incur costs when it raises the necessary reserves through the methods described in the text.
5. Because when a deposit outflow occurs, a bank is able to borrow reserves in these overnight loan
markets quickly; thus, it does not need to acquire reserves at a high cost by calling in or selling off
loans. The presence of overnight loan markets thus reduces the costs associated with deposit outflows,
so banks will hold fewer excess reserves.
6. No. When you turn a customer down, you may lose that customer’s business forever, which is
extremely costly. Instead, you might go out and borrow from other banks, corporations, or the Fed
to obtain funds so that you can make loans to the customer. Alternatively, you might sell negotiable
CDs or some of your securities to acquire the necessary funds.
7. To lower capital and raise ROE, holding its assets constant, it can pay out more dividends or buy back
some of its shares. Alternatively, it can keep its capital constant, but increase the amount of its assets
by acquiring new funds and then seeking out new loan business or purchasing more securities with
these new funds.
8. It can raise $1 million of capital by issuing new stock. It can cut its dividend payments by $1 million,
thereby increasing its retained earnings by $1 million. It can decrease the amount of its assets so that
the amount of its capital relative to its assets increases, thereby meeting the capital requirements.
9. Because ROE, the return on equity, tells stock holders how much they are earning on their equity
investment, while ROA, the return on assets, only provides an indication how well the bank’s assets
are being managed.
10. ROE will fall in half.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
11. The benefit is that the bank now has a larger cushion of bank capital and so is less likely to go broke
if there are losses on its loans or other assets. The cost is that for the same ROA, it will have a lower
ROE, return on equity.
12. In order for a banker to reduce adverse selection she must screen out good from bad credit risks by
learning all she can about potential borrowers. Similarly, in order to minimize moral hazard, she must
continually monitor borrowers to ensure that they are complying with restrictive loan covenants.
Hence it pays for the banker to be nosy.
13. Compensating balances can act as collateral. They also help establish long-term customer relationships,
which make it easier for the bank to collect information about prospective borrowers, thus reducing the
adverse selection problem. Compensating balances help the bank monitor the activities of a borrowing
firm so that it can prevent the firm from taking on too much risk, thereby not acting in the interest of
the bank.
14. No, because the bank president is not managing the bank well. The fact that the bank has never incurred
costs as a result of a deposit outflow means that the bank is holding a lot of reserves that do not earn
any interest. Thus the bank’s profits are low, and stock in the bank is not a good investment.
15. False. Although diversification is a desirable strategy for a bank, it may still make sense for a bank to
specialize in certain types of lending. For example, a bank may have developed expertise in screening
and monitoring borrowers for a particular kind of loan, thus improving its ability to handle problems
of adverse selection and moral hazard.
16. You should want to make short-term loans. Then, when these loans mature, you will be able to make
new loans at higher interest rates, which will generate more income for the bank.
17. False. If an asset has a lot of risk, a bank manager might not want to hold it even if it has a higher return
than other assets. Thus a bank manager has to consider risk as well as the expected return when
deciding to hold an asset.
18. Because the off-balance sheet activities mentioned in this chapter, which generate fee income, have
become a more important part of banks’ business.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
19. The T-accounts for the two banks are as follows:
First National Bank
Assets
Reserves
Liabilities
$50
Checkable Deposits
$50
Second National Bank
Assets
Reserves
Liabilities
$50
Checkable Deposits
$50
20. Reserves drop by $500. The T-account for the first National Bank is as follows:
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
First National Bank
Assets
Reserves
Liabilities
$500
Checkable Deposits
$500
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21.
Assets
Liabilities
Required Reserves
$ 8 million
Checkable Deposits
$100 million
Excess Reserves
$48 million
Bank Capital
$ 6 million
Loans
$50 million
22. The bank can purchase $45 M/$4,986.70, which is about 9,024 T-bills. The actual cost is
$44,999,980.80.
After the transaction, the balance sheet is:
Assets
Liabilities
Required Reserves
Excess Reserves
$ 8 million
$ 3 million
T-bills
$45 million
Loans
$50 million
Checkable Deposits
Bank Capital
$100 million
$ 6 million
23. ROE  ROA  EM
0.15  0.01  EM
EM  15  assets/equity
So equity/assets  6.66%. This is a well-capitalized bank.
24. The assets fall in value by $8 million ( $100 million  2%  4 years) while the liabilities fall in value
by $10.8 million ( $90 million  2%  6 years). Because the liabilities fall in value by $2.8 million
more than the assets do, the net worth of the bank rises by $2.8 million. The interest-rate risk can be
reduced by shortening the maturity of the liabilities to a duration of four years or lengthening the
maturity of the assets to a duration of six years. Alternatively, you could engage in an interest-rate
swap, in which you swap the interest earned on your assets with the interest on another bank’s assets
that have a duration of six years.
25. The gap is $10 million ($30 million of rate-sensitive assets minus $20 million of rate-sensitive
liabilities). The change in bank profits from the interest rate rise is $0.5 million (5%  $10 million);
the interest-rate risk can be reduced by increasing rate-sensitive liabilities to $30 million or by reducing
rate-sensitive assets to $20 million. Alternatively, you could engage in an interest-rate swap in which
you swap the interest on $10 million of rate-sensitive assets for the interest on another bank’s $10 million
of fixed-rate assets.
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Chapter 11
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. A government safety net can short-circuit runs on banks and bank panics, and overcome reluctance
by depositors to put funds in the banking system. This helps to eliminate a contagion effect, in which
both good and bad banks could become insolvent in the event of a bank panic. Without confidence in
the banking system, such panics could result in a collapse of the financial system and severely inhibit
investment and economic growth.
2. There would be adverse selection, because people who might want to burn their property for some
personal gain would actively try to obtain substantial fire insurance policies. Moral hazard could also
be a problem, because a person with a fire insurance policy has less incentive to take measures to
prevent fire.
3. Eliminating or limiting the amount of deposit insurance would help reduce the moral hazard of
excessive risk taking on the part of banks. It would, however, make bank failures and panics more
likely, so it might not be a very good idea.
4. The economy would benefit from reduced moral hazard; that is, banks would not want to take on
too much risk, because doing so would increase their deposit insurance premiums. The problem is,
however, that it is difficult to monitor the degree of risk in bank assets because often only the bank
making the loans knows how risky they are.
5. The benefits of a too-big-to-fail policy are that it makes bank panics less likely. The costs are that it
increases the incentives for moral hazard by big banks who know that depositors do not have incentives
to monitor the banks’ risk-taking activities. In addition, it is an unfair policy because it discriminates
against small banks.
6. Regulations that restrict banks from holding risky assets directly decrease the moral hazard of risk
taking by the bank. Requirements that force banks to have a large amount of capital also decrease the
banks’ incentives for risk taking, because banks now have more to lose if they fail. Such regulations
will not completely eliminate the moral hazard problem, because bankers have incentives to hide
their holdings of risky assets from the regulators and to overstate the amount of their capital.
7. Because with higher amounts of capital, banks have more to lose if they take on too much risk. Thus
capital requirements make it less likely that banks will take on excessive risk.
8. If the banks that did not need or want the capital injections were not forced to take the capital, then
only the weakest banks would be the ones that would have received the needed capital injections to
avoid insolvency. This could have started a run on those banks, which then would have accelerated
their insolvency problem and created a contagion effect on the rest of the financial system, harming
all banks. By forcing all banks to accept capital, this helped to reduce sending unnecessarily adverse
signals to investors and depositors of the weakest banks.
9. Because off-balance-sheet activities do not appear on bank balance sheets, they cannot be dealt
with by simple bank capital requirements, which are based on bank assets, such as a leverage ratio.
Banking regulators have dealt with this problem by imposing an additional risk-based bank capital
requirement that banks set aside additional bank capital for different kinds of off-balance-sheet
activities.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
10. The original Basel Accord takes into account the riskiness of capital, but in practice the risk weights can
differ substantially from the actual risk the bank faces. The Basel 2 Accords were created to address
this limitation; however, addressing these shortfalls greatly increased the complexity of the accord, and
there was substantial delay with countries adopting and implementing the regulations. More specifically,
Basel 2 did not require banks to hold adequate capital to survive financial crises. Moreover, risk weights
were dependent on credit ratings, which can be unreliable, particularly in financial crises. In addition,
Basel 2 implies procyclical capital requirements, whereas countercyclical capital requirements would
be more prudent. Also, there is not a sufficient focus on the need for liquidity, which is necessary
particularly during financial crises. Basel 3 attempts to address these shortfalls by increasing the quality
and quantity of capital requirements, making capital requirements less procyclical, establishing rules
on the use of credit ratings, and requiring firms to have access to more stable funding to increase
liquidity.
11. Chartering banks helps reduce the adverse selection problem because it attempts to screen proposals
for new banks to prevent risk-prone entrepreneurs and crooks from controlling them. It will not always
work because risk-prone entrepreneurs and crooks have incentives to hide their true nature and thus
may slip through the chartering process.
12. With the advent of new financial instruments, a bank that is quite healthy at a particular point in time
can be driven into insolvency extremely rapidly from risky trading in these instruments. Thus, a focus
on bank capital at a point in time may not be effective in indicating whether a bank will be taking on
excessive risk in the near future. Therefore, to make sure that banks are not taking on too much risk,
bank supervisors now are focusing more on whether the risk-management procedures in banks keep
them from excessive risk taking that might make a future bank failure more likely.
13. More public information about the risks incurred by banks and the quality of their portfolio helps
stockholders, creditors, and depositors to evaluate and monitor banks and pull their funds out if the
banks are taking on too much risk. Thus, in order to prevent this from happening banks are likely to
take on less risk, and this makes bank failures less likely.
14. (a) Probably not. Since these assets are relatively high risk, the bank is subject to fluctuations in the
values of these assets, which can be substantial. This could result in a significant decrease in the value
of its assets to the point where it can no longer cover its immediate liabilities, and would become
insolvent. It is for this reason that the government places restrictions on the types and amounts of
assets that financial institutions can hold. (b) If the housing market crashed, it is likely that many of
the mortgage loans would default, and the value of collateral on those loans (the market price of the
house) would decline dramatically. If the collateral from the nonperforming loans were valued at
historical cost, these would likely be much higher than current or near future mark-to-market values
would be. As a result, the bank’s apparent capital position would be better off under a historical-cost
accounting system. (c) If the price of commodities spiked, this would lead to a significant increase in
the value of the bank’s assets. In this case, using a mark-to-market valuation would be better. The
original price paid for the commodities would be lower, hence a historical valuation would indicate a
lower capital position than would be reflected by the actual current liquidation value of the commodities.
(d) Although mark-to-market rules can be more efficient in that they generally provide a more accurate
picture of a bank’s capital position, in severe downturns such as the one experienced during the
2007–2009 crisis they can propagate poorly functioning financial markets by reducing the value of
collateral, making access to liquidity more difficult. On the other hand, using historical cost can
provide more capital stability for banks; however, as noted, historical-cost basis often does not
provide an accurate picture of a bank’s capital position.
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99
15. With more competition in financial markets, there are more firms making less profits. Thus, there is
greater incentive for financial firms to take on greater risk in an effort to increase profits. Although
restrictions on competition would decrease the incentive for risk by financial firms, it may not be
altogether beneficial. It is likely that lower competition would result in higher fees to consumers
and decreased efficiency of banking institutions.
16. Leverage cycles indicate that over business cycles, lending increases substantially in booms and
decreases substantially in downturns. If countercyclical capital requirements were initiated, this would
require more capital held at institutions during booms, which would reduce lending and help to mitigate
credit bubbles that can be damaging later on. Likewise, when the economy goes into a downturn, capital
requirements could be lowered, which would encourage more lending and facilitate faster economic
growth.
17. The process of financial innovation is generally good for the economy: Its goal is to create new
financial instruments as a response to the ever-changing preferences of financial system participants.
One of its most beneficial effects is to increase the efficiency of the financial system. This process
also can be risky at times. The creation of new financial instruments is often associated with their
mismanagement. Sometimes this can result in the creation of asset-price bubbles, as happened with
mortgage-backed securities (or CDOs, or SIVs) in the 2007–2009 crisis. When these instruments are
improperly priced, this can disrupt the financial system. Regulators can at best be one step behind in
this process, since usually as a profitable opportunity is created (e.g., by trading MBSs, CDOs, etc.)
many financial intermediaries will follow this path. Only after there is a thorough understanding of
the structure and risk of new financial instruments can proper regulations be written and enforced.
But this usually only happens after there is a disruption in the financial system.
18. The S&L crisis can be blamed on the principal-agent problem because politicians and regulators (the
agents) did not have the same incentives to minimize costs of deposit insurance as do the taxpayers
(the principals). As a result, politicians and regulators relaxed capital standards, removed restrictions
on holdings of risky assets, and engaged in regulatory forbearance, thereby increasing the cost of the
S&L bailout.
19. One of the main provisions in this section of legislation is the authority to examine and enforce
regulations for businesses related to the issuance of residential mortgages. Much of the financial
crisis of 2007–2009 was triggered from excesses in the residential housing market in the United
States, for instance with the issuance of subprime mortgages, or other types of mortgage structures
that would never possibly be repaid in good faith. Had these provisions been in place prior to the
housing market crash, it is possible that the effects in the housing market and broader financial
markets could have been averted (or could have been much more limited in length and severity).
20. Prior to 2009, the U.S. government had no legal authority to seize the largest failing financial
institutions, such as bank holding companies, and liquidate their assets in an orderly fashion. This
became apparent during the 2007–2009 crisis, as there was no way for the government to rescue
Lehman Brothers and unwind its assets. Since these types of financial institutions are considered
systemically important, they pose a risk to the overall financial system because their failure can cause
widespread damage. Having resolution authority allows the government to quickly take over a failing
firm and wind down its assets, with the health of the overall financial system as a priority.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
21. Under the payoff method, large deposits pay better than $0.90/dollar. In this case, the $350,000 is
worth better than $350,000  0.90  $315,000. Under the purchase and assumption policy, the bank
is completely absorbed, and all accounts are worth their full value. Upfront, the first method will have
a lower cost to the insurance fund. However, if depositors fear loss under the payoff method, they are
less likely to maintain account balances in excess of $250,000 in a single bank.
22. Before the commitment, the capital ratio  6/106  5.66%. Since the loan commitment is not an
accounting transaction yet, the capital ratio is the same after.
Before, the loan commitment, for risk-weighted assets:
Reserves and T-bills have a zero weight. So, $56 million has zero weight.
Commercial loans carry a 100% weight. RW Assets  $50 million.
Total risk-weighted assets  $50 million.
After the loan commitment, risk-weighted assets:
Reserves and T-bills have a zero weight. So $56 million has zero weight.
Commercial loans carry a 100% weight. RW Assets  $50 million.
Commercial loan commitments are at 100%. RW Assets  $10 million.
Total risk-weighted assets  $60 million.
The actual risk-weighted assets for the loan commitment may vary depending on the terms of the
commitment and other factors. However, under the idea of risk-weighted assets, the $10 million
would be correct.
23. (a)
Assets
Liabilities
Required Reserves
Excess Reserves
$10.4 million
$53.6 million
Loans
$75 million
Checkable Deposits
Bank Capital
$130 million
$ 9 million
(b) The bank is well capitalized, at 9/139  6.47%. (c) Reserves have a zero weight. So, $64 million
has zero weight. Residential mortgages carry a 50% weight, which implies $25 million in riskweighted assets. Commercial loans carry a 100% weight, which implies another $25 million in
risk-weighted assets; thus total risk-weighted assets is $50 million. The bank’s risk-weighted
capital ratio  9/50  18%.
24. The sale of each mortgage would be recorded as:
Debit
Credit
Cash
$124,798
Loss
$125,202
Mortgages
$250,000
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101
After the fact, the actual balance sheet is:
Assets
Liabilities
Required Reserves
$10.4 million
Checkable Deposits
Excess Reserves
$28.6 million
Bank Capital
Loans
$75 million
$130 million
$ 16 million
Now, the true state of the bank’s position is realized; bank capital is now negative, so the bank is in
a dire capital position.
25. The effect of the capital injection and bank run are shown in the balance sheet below:
Assets
Liabilities
Required Reserves
$ 8 million
Checkable Deposits
$100 million
Excess Reserves
$26 million
Bank Capital
$
Loans
$75 million
9 million
The bank now has a 9/109  8.3% capital ratio; it is again well capitalized. With the run on the bank,
checkable deposits fall to $100 million. In order to have a bank capital ratio of 10%, it must be the
case that 0.10  BC/(100  BC ), where BC represents the required level of bank capital. Solving for
BC yields a level of bank capital needed of $11.1 million. Thus, the regulators would need to inject
an additional $2.1 million to reach a 10% capital ratio.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 12
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Agricultural and other interests in the United States were quite suspicious of centralized power and
thus opposed the creation of a central bank.
2. Throughout most of the history of banking in the United States, there has been a fear of centralized
banking power. As a result all banks had been chartered locally by each state. Due to lax regulation
by some states, banks regularly failed due to lack of sufficient capital or fraud. To stabilize the banking
system, the federal government introduced the National Banking Act of 1863, which created a system
of federally chartered banks which were subject to greater regulation and scrutiny. Since federally
chartered banks were less prone to failure, they increased in number over the years. However, the
skepticism of centralized power in the banking system still allowed state banks to operate effectively.
And although there have been attempts over the years to force all banks to be federally chartered, due
to more uniformity in the chartering process, the distinctions between state and federally chartered
banks have diminished, and so the two standards are still in operation today.
3. During the Great Depression there were many bank failures, and at the time deposits were not insured
so many bank customers lost their deposits. One of the provisions of the Act was to create the FDIC,
which guaranteed deposits up to a certain amount if the bank fails. A second provision of the Act was
to separate investment banking functions from commercial banking. This was as a response to the view
that investment banking activities created too much risk, and was responsible for many of the bank
failures that occurred.
4. (a) Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; (b) the Federal Reserve; (c) state banking authorities
and the FDIC; (d) the Federal Reserve; (e) Office of Thrift Supervision ; (f ) National Credit Union
Administration.
5. Large fluctuations in interest rates during the 1970s and 1980s led to a need for financial products that
could help reduce risk related to unexpected interest rate fluctuations. Two examples of this type of
innovation are adjustable-rate mortgages and financial derivatives, both developed during the 1970s.
6. New technologies such as electronic banking facilities are frequently shared by several banks, so
these facilities are not classified as branches. Thus they can be used by banks to escape limitations
on offering services in other states and, in effect, to escape limitations from restrictions on branching.
7. Uncertain. The invention of the computer did help lower transaction costs and the costs of collecting
information, both of which have made other financial institutions more competitive with banks and
have allowed corporations to bypass banks and borrow directly from securities markets. Therefore,
computers were an important factor in the decline of the banking system. However, another source
of the decline in the banking industry was the loss of cost advantages for the banks in acquiring funds,
and this loss was due to factors unrelated to the invention of the computer, such as the rise in inflation
and its interaction with regulations, which produced disintermediation.
8. True. Higher inflation helped raise interest rates, which caused the disintermediation process to occur
and helped create money market mutual funds. As a result, banks lost cost advantages on the liabilities
side of their balance sheets, leading to a less healthy banking industry. However, improved information
technology would still have eroded the banks’ income advantages on the assets side of their balance
sheet, so the decline in the banking industry would still have occurred.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
103
9. With a sweep account, any account funds left at the end of the business day are technically transferred
to another account, which is invested in overnight securities. Since they are no longer classified as
checkable deposits, the funds are not subject to reserve requirements. Money market mutual funds
are set up such that deposits are used to invest in short-term money market securities. And although
money market mutual fund accounts have check writing functions like checkable deposits, they are
also not subject to reserve requirements.
10. Money market mutual funds are not subject to reserve requirements and so they avoid the tax effect
of reserve requirements and have a cost advantage over banks in acquiring funds. Eliminating reserve
requirements would reduce the cost advantage of money market mutual funds and would significantly
reduce their size.
11. Since the banking sector is so heavily regulated, there is a strong incentive for banks to find ways to
skirt regulations that restrict their ability to earn profits. Through loophole mining, banks can create
new financial products which allow them to operate within existing regulations, but make (or increase)
profits that were stifled due to regulation.
12. The rise in inflation and the resulting higher interest rates on alternatives to checkable deposits meant
that banks had a big shrinkage in this low-cost way of raising funds. The innovation of money market
mutual funds also meant that the banks lost checking account business. The abolishment of Regulation Q
and the appearance of NOW accounts did help decrease disintermediation, but raised the cost of funds
for American banks, which now had to pay higher interest rates on checkable and other deposits.
Foreign banks were also able to tap a large pool of domestic savings, thereby lowering their cost of
funds relative to American banks.
13. The growth of the commercial paper market and the development of the junk bond market meant
that corporations were now able to issue securities rather than borrow from banks, thus eroding the
competitive advantage of banks on the lending side. Securitization has enabled other financial
institutions to originate loans, again taking away some of the banks’ loan business.
14. False. Although there are many more banks in the United States than in Canada, this does not mean
that the American banking system is more competitive. The reason for the large number of U.S. banks
has been anticompetitive regulations such as restrictions on banking.
15. Because restrictions on branching are stricter for commercial banks than for savings and loans. Thus
small commercial banks have greater protection from competition and are more likely to survive than
small savings and loans.
16. Credit unions are small because they only have members who share a common employer or are
associated with a particular organization.
17. Because becoming a bank holding company allows a bank to: (a) circumvent branching restrictions
since it can own a controlling interest in several banks even if branching is not permitted, and
(b) engage in other activities related to banking that can be highly profitable.
18. One advantage is increased efficiency of the banking industry as consolidation occurs. Another
advantage is a convenience factor for bank customers: Depositors can have access to account banking
services outside of their home state. Perhaps most importantly, interstate banking allows banks to have
geographical diversification of their loan portfolios, which can help alleviate localized bank failures.
Disadvantages are that it tends to reduce competition as consolidation occurs, creating a few larger
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
banks at the expense of many smaller banks. As a result, many smaller community banks, which are
thought to be an important source of credit for small businesses, may go out of business. In addition,
it is worried that as banks expand into new geographical markets, they may take on increased risk,
which could lead to bank failures.
19. Brokerage firms began to engage in the traditional banking business of issuing deposit instruments,
while foreign bank activities in the United States further eroded the competitive position of U.S. banks.
This led to the Federal Reserve’s allowing bank holding companies to enter the underwriting business
through a loophole in Glass-Steagall in order to keep them competitive. Finally, legislation in 1999 was
passed to repeal Glass-Steagall.
20. The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act opened the door to consolidation, not only in terms of the number
of banking institutions, but also across financial service activities. Banking institutions have thus
become larger and increasingly complex organizations, engaging in the full gamut of financial
services activities.
21. There are three main factors which have contributed to rapid growth in international banking: The
growth in international trade and expansion of multinational corporations; the increased profitability
of global investment banking; and the expansion of dollar-denominated deposits abroad (eurodollars).
22. International banking has been encouraged by giving special tax treatment and relaxed branching
regulations to Edge Act corporations and to international banking facilities (IBFs); this was done to
make American banks more competitive with foreign banks. The hope is that it will create more
banking jobs in the United States.
23. IBFs encourage American and foreign banks to do more banking business in the United States, thus
shifting employment from Europe to the United States.
24. No, because the foreign-owned bank is subject to the same regulations as the American-owned bank.
25. Because of tighter regulation in the United States compared to the rest of the world, there are many
more banks, which has kept even the largest banks in the United States relatively small compared to
those in other countries. In addition, the United States has been slower to consolidate in the banking
sector than most other countries. However, as the banking sector continues toward consolidation, it is
likely that the size of the largest U.S. banks will grow.
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Chapter 13
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Because of traditional American hostility to a central bank and centralized authority, the system of
12 regional banks was set up to diffuse power along regional lines.
2. When the Federal Reserve districts were created in 1913, the districts were drawn up to reflect roughly
equal populations and economic interests that prevailed at the time. Since the West coast was so
sparsely populated relative to the East coast, this implied a much larger area in the 12th district, as
compared to New York’s 2nd district.
3. In theory it sounds sensible to redraw the districts to reflect the larger economic interests and population
movements to western and southern states since the original Federal Reserve Act of 1913. However,
in practice this would require Congress to rewrite the Federal Reserve Act and redraw the boundaries,
which could create more opportunities for political interests to interfere with the monetary policy
process and could take a long time to resolve.
4. True. Like the U.S. Constitution, the Federal Reserve System, originally established by the Federal
Reserve Act, has many checks and balances and is a peculiarly American institution. The ability of
the twelve regional banks to affect discount policy was viewed as a check on the centralized power
of the Board of Governors, just as states’ rights are a check on the centralized power of the federal
government. The provision that there be three types of directors (A, B, and C ) representing different
groups (professional bankers, business people, and the public) was again intended to prevent any group
from dominating the Fed. The Fed’s independence from the federal government and the setting up of
the Federal Reserve banks as incorporated institutions were further intended to restrict government
power over the banking industry.
5. The Board of Governors sets reserve requirements and the discount rate; the FOMC directs open market
operations. In practice however, the FOMC helps make decisions about reserve requirements and the
discount rate.
6. The Federal Reserve Banks influence the conduct of monetary policy through their administration of
the discount facilities at each bank and by having five of their presidents sit on the FOMC, the main
policymaking arm of the Fed.
7. This is important since, even if they are currently non-voting members, it gives them an opportunity
to provide information on the health of the economy in their region, which could be quite different
from other regions, giving important context to any policy decision.
8. The New York Fed plays an extremely important role in the functioning of the Federal Reserve and
monetary policy. Its district contains many of the largest commercial banks in the country, has regulatory
authority over bank holding companies, and is very close to most financial market operations, so the
New York Fed can maintain close monitoring of how the economy and financial markets are operating.
In addition, the open market desk is housed at the New York Fed, which is tasked with executing the
directives of monetary policy open market operations. In this capacity, the New York Fed interfaces
directly with bond and foreign exchange dealers. In addition, it is a member of the Bank for International
Settlements, and houses the largest gold deposit in the United States. For these reasons, the New York
Fed is extremely important, and is always given a vote at FOMC deliberations.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
9. Some may argue that the presidents of the regional Federal Reserve banks should be nominated and go
through the same formal process as those on the Board of Governors, to ensure that they are qualified
and will serve in a capacity that furthers the interests of the public. After all, the presidents of the regional
Federal Reserve banks participate in monetary policy decisions either as voting or non-voting members
on the FOMC, so they can have an influential role in policy matters. Moreover, some worry that because
banks within the region help decide who will be their district Fed president, conflicts of interest could
result since the district Federal Reserve bank has oversight responsibility of those banks. However,
setting up a formal political appointment and approval process could be lengthy, and leave many district
Federal Reserve banks without leadership for quite some time, which could create more problems than
it solves.
10. The 14-year terms do not completely insulate the governors from political influence. The governors
know that their bureaucratic power can be reined in by congressional legislation and so must still curry
favor with both Congress and the president. Moreover, in order to gain additional power to regulate
the financial system, the governors need the support of Congress and the president to pass favorable
legislation.
11. Since members on the Board of Governors must be appointed by the president and confirmed by the
Senate, the political process involved with empty seats being filled can sometimes be arduous and
lengthy, particularly if the Senate majority is from the opposite party of the presidency. Thus finding
qualified people who are willing to serve, and endure the vetting process, can be difficult sometimes.
12. The president can influence the Fed in several ways. For one, the president can influence Congress,
which has in the past threatened legislation to reduce independence of the Fed in various ways. Also,
it is not uncommon for a president to appoint several members to the Board of Governors, so the
president has the opportunity to pick people who may have particular economic ideologies. Also, the
president can appoint a new chair of the Board of Governors every four years; although the previous
chair can fill out his or her term on the Board, tradition dictates that they are usually expected to
resign.
13. Even though each person on the FOMC gets one vote, the policy deliberations will undoubtedly
reflect the preferences of the chairman. For one, the Chair is the face of monetary policy, so if his or
her recommendations get voted down on important policy matters, this could create a great amount of
uncertainty among the public and financial markets. Moreover, the Chair sets the agenda, and chooses
staff for research and analysis purposes, so he or she has an opportunity to shape the way a meeting
evolves, as well as present data that would support his or her recommendation well.
14. It has a high degree of instrument independence in the sense that it can choose any method it wants in
order to achieve a given set of policy objectives. This has taken the form of adjusting the money supply
in the past, however the Fed now (along with most other central banks) chooses to use a short-term
interest rate as its main policy instrument. The Fed has a fair amount of goal independence, despite
the objectives of “maximum employment” and “low, stable prices” because it has a lot of latitude in
interpreting exactly what “maximum employment” and “low, stable prices” actually means. In many
other countries, goal independence is much lower, particularly for countries with a formal inflation
target, which may be mandated by the government.
15. The Fed is more independent because its substantial revenue from securities and discount loans
allows it to control its own budget.
16. The threat that Congress will acquire greater control over the Fed’s finances and budget.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
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17. On the one hand, if the Fed were subject to additional scrutiny, particularly on policy matters, it is
possible that the prospects of policy auditing could place implicit pressure on the Fed to pursue
(or not pursue) particular policies for political reasons. This could make the Fed less independent,
leading to less desirable economic outcomes. On the other hand, auditing the Fed makes it more
accountable, which is consistent with democratic principles.
18. The theory of bureaucratic behavior indicates that the Fed will want to acquire as much power as
possible by requiring all banks to become members. Although the Fed did not succeed in obtaining
legislation requiring all banks to become members of the system, it was successful in getting Congress
to legislate extension of many of the regulations that were previously imposed solely on member banks
(for instance, reserve requirements) to all other depository institutions. Thus the Fed was successful
in extending its power.
19. False. Maximizing one’s welfare does not rule out altruism. Operating in the public interest is clearly
one objective of the Fed. The theory of bureaucratic behavior merely points out that other objectives,
such as maximizing power, also influence Fed decision making.
20. Eliminating the Fed’s independence might make it more shortsighted and subject to political influence.
Thus, when political gains could be achieved by expansionary policy before an election, the Fed might
be more likely to engage in this activity. As a result, more pronounced political business cycles might
result.
21. False. The Fed is still subject to political pressure, because Congress can pass legislation limiting
the Fed’s power. If the Fed is performing badly, Congress can make the Fed accountable by passing
legislation that the Fed does not like.
22. Uncertain. Although independence may help the Fed take the long view, because its personnel are
not directly affected by the outcome of the next election, the Fed can still be influenced by political
pressure. In addition, the lack of Fed accountability because of its independence may make the Fed
more irresponsible. Thus it is not absolutely clear that the Fed is more farsighted as a result of its
independence.
23. The argument for not releasing the FOMC minutes immediately is that it keeps Congress off the Fed’s
back, thus enabling the Fed to pursue an independent monetary policy that is less subject to inflation
and political business cycles. The argument for releasing the minutes immediately is that it would make
the Fed more accountable. And as will be seen in later chapters, increased transparency can help
develop market expectations that help to further promote the objectives of monetary policy actions.
24. The ECB is more independent than the Fed because its charter can only be changed by revision of the
Maastricht Treaty, a very difficult process because all signatories to the treaty must agree to accept any
proposed change, while the Fed’s charter can be changed by legislation, which is much easier to do.
On the other hand, the goal for the ECB is more clearly specified than it is for the Fed because the
Maastricht Treaty states that the overriding long-run goal of the ECB is price stability, although it
doesn’t specify exactly what “price stability” means.
25. Prior to 1997, the Bank of England had very little independence, since interest rate policy was
determined exclusively by Her Majesty’s Treasury (Chancellor of the Exchequer).
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 14
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. (a) Public: Assets rise by $10,000 due to automobile purchase, liabilities rise by $10,000 due to loan.
Banks: Assets rise by $10,000 due to loan; this is offset by a decrease in reserves assets of $10,000.
(b) Public: Assets are unaffected ($400 increase in checking deposits is offset by a $400 decrease in
currency holdings). Banks: Assets increase by $400 from reserves; liabilities increase by $400 due
to checking account balance. Fed: Liabilities are unaffected (reserves increase by $400, currency
decreases by $400). (c) Banks: Assets increase by $1,000,000 in reserves; liabilities increase by the
same amount due to borrowing from the Fed. Fed: Assets increase by the $1,000,000 from the loan;
liabilities increase by $1,000,000 due to the increase in reserves. (d) Assets and liabilities of the
banking system as a whole are unaffected; however, individual banks’ balance sheets will change due
to the loan. (e) Public: Assets rise by the value of the meal of $100, and are offset by a fall in assets
due to lower checking account balances of $100. Assets and liabilities of the banking system as a whole
are unaffected; however, individual banks’ balance sheets will change as funds are transferred from
your bank account to the restaurant’s bank account.
2. None. Since there are no loans created from the new reserves, no additional deposit creation will occur.
3. Checkable deposits will remain the same.
4. Reserves will decrease by $1000, checkable deposits will decrease by $1000, but the monetary base
will be unchanged, since reserves decrease by the same amount as currency increases.
5. None. The reduction of $10 million in discount loans and increase of $10 million of bonds held by
the Fed leaves the level of reserves unchanged so that checkable deposits remain unchanged.
6. The deposit of $100 in the bank increases its reserves by $100. This starts the process of multiple
deposit expansion, leading to an increase in the money supply.
7. False. Even though it can control the monetary base fairly precisely through open market operations,
it has much less control over the amount of bank reserves in the system because banks decide how
much to borrow from the fed, while the public decides how much currency it wants to hold relative
to deposits, both of which affect the amount of bank reserves. In addition, float and Treasury deposits
can unexpectedly change the amount of reserves in the banking system, which is essentially out of the
control of the Fed.
8. False. Since the Fed cannot control the amount of discount lending to financial institutions, it does not
have perfect control over the amount of reserves, and hence does not have perfect control over the
monetary base.
9. Both the Fed’s purchase of $100 million of bonds (which raises the monetary base) and the lowering
of the required reserve ratio (which increases the amount of multiple expansion and raises the money
multiplier) lead to a rise in the money supply.
10. (a) The central bank can affect the money supply through open market operations, which changes the
nonborrowed monetary base. It can also affect the monetary base, and hence money supply by issuing
loans to financial institutions, which increases borrowed reserves. Finally, the central bank can change
reserve requirements, which affects the money multiplier, and hence the money supply for a given
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
109
monetary base. (b) Banks can affect the money supply through their holdings of excess reserves; less
excess reserves means more loans, and hence a greater money supply. (c) Depositors can influence the
money supply through their holdings of currency versus deposits. A higher currency-deposit ratio
leads to a lower money multiplier, and hence a lower money supply for a given monetary base.
11. False. As the formula in Equation (4) indicates, if rr  e is greater than 1, the money multiplier can be
less than 1. In practice, however, e is so small that rr  e is less than 1 and the money multiplier is
greater than 1.
12. A financial panic would probably decrease the money multiplier and the money supply, for a given
monetary base. In a financial panic, you would expect banks to want to make less risky loans, and
have more liquidity on hand, which would increase the excess reserve ratio and decrease the money
multiplier. In addition, depositors may get worried about the health of banks, and increase their
holdings of currency, which also would decrease the money multiplier.
13. Both of these factors worked to reduce the money multiplier. This can be seen in Figure 3 in the
chapter, which indicates a dramatically declining money supply, while the monetary base grew
modestly, if at all.
14. Paying interest on reserves gives banks incentive to hold more reserves rather than lend them out,
which should raise the excess reserve ratio, reduce the money multiplier, and reduce the money
supply, holding the monetary base constant.
15. The difference is that the monetary base increased dramatically during the recent financial crisis,
which was more than enough to offset the fall in the multiplier. During the Great Depression, the
monetary base rose modestly, if at all.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
16. Reserves and the monetary base fall by $2 million, as the following T-accounts indicate:
First National Bank
Assets
Liabilities
Reserves
$2 million
Securities
$2 million
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Securities
Liabilities
$2 million
Reserves
$2 million
17. Reserves are unchanged, but the monetary base decreases by $2 million due to the currency
reduction, as the following T-accounts show:
Irving the Investor
Assets
Currency
Liabilities
$2 million
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Securities
$2 million
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Securities
Liabilities
$2 million
$2 million
Currency
18. The initial effect of the loans on the banking system, Federal Reserve, and public are shown below.
Banking System (all five banks)
Assets
Reserves
Liabilities
$100 million
Loans (borrowings from the Fed)
$100 million
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Liabilities
$100 million
Loans (borrowings from the Fed)
Reserves
$100 million
Public
Assets
Liabilities
No change
No change
After the public withdraws $50 million in deposits to hold as currency, the T-accounts look like this:
Banking System (all five banks)
Assets
Reserves
Liabilities
$50 million
Loans (borrowings from the Fed)
$100 million
Checkable Deposits
$ 50 million
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Liabilities
Loans (borrowings from the Fed) $100 million
Reserves
$50 million
Currency
$50 million
Public
Assets
Liabilities
Checkable Deposits $50 million
Currency
$50 million
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111
19. The initial effect of the loans provided by the Fed is shown in the T-accounts below:
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Liabilities
Loans (borrowings from the Fed)
$1 million
$1 million
Reserves
Banking System
Assets
Reserves
Liabilities
$1 million
$1 million
Loans (borrowings from the Fed)
After the banks receive the reserves, those excess reserves are loaned out; through multiple deposit
creation, the increase in reserves of the banking system will support $10 million in new loans and
checkable deposits, increasing the money supply by $10 million. The final effect of the multiple
deposit creation is shown in the T-accounts below:
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Liabilities
Loans (borrowings from the Fed)
$1 million
$1 million
Reserves
Banking System
Assets
Liabilities
Reserves
$ 1 million
Loans (borrowings from the Fed)
$ 1 million
Loans
$10 million
Checkable Deposits
$10 million
20. The Fed sale of bonds to the First National Bank reduces reserves by $2 million. The net result is that
checkable deposits in the banking system decline by $20 million. The initial effect on the Fed and the
banking system is shown below:
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Securities
Liabilities
$2 million
Reserves
$2 million
Banking System
Assets
Liabilities
Securities
$2 million
Reserves
$2 million
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112
Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
After the decline in bank reserves, the multiple deposit creation process works in reverse, so the final
effect on the Fed and banking system balance sheets is shown below:
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Securities
Liabilities
$2 million
Reserves
$2 million
Banking System
Assets
Liabilities
Securities
$ 2 million
Reserves
$ 2 million
Loans
$20 million
Checkable Deposits
$20 million
21. The total increase in checkable deposits is only $5 million, substantially less than the $10 million
that occurs when no excess reserves are held. The reason is that banks now end up holding 20% of
deposits as reserves and only lend out 80%, so that the increase in deposits found in the T-accounts
is $1,000,000  $800,000  $640,000  $512,000  $409,600  . . .  $5 million. The T-accounts
below show the effect of the securities purchase:
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Securities
Liabilities
$1 million
Reserves
$1 million
Banking System
Assets
Liabilities
Securities
$1 million
Reserves
$1 million
After the increase in reserves and the multiple deposit creation process, the Fed and Banking system
balance sheets are as follows:
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Securities
Liabilities
$1 million
Reserves
$1 million
Banking System
Assets
Liabilities
Securities
$1 million
Reserves
$1 million
Loans
$5 million
Checkable Deposits
$5 million
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
113
22. The banking system is still not in equilibrium because there continues to be $100 million of excess
reserves ($1 billion of reserves minus $900 million of required reserves, 10% of the $9 billion of
deposits). The excess reserves will be lent out until equilibrium is reached with an additional
$1 billion of checkable deposits. The T-account for the banking system when it is in equilibrium
is as follows:
Banking System
Assets
Liabilities
Reserves
$ 1 billion
Loans (borrowings from the Fed) $ 1 billion
Loans
$10 billion
Checkable deposits
$10 billion
23. Checkable deposits will decrease by $50 million when the banking system is in equilibrium (as a result
of the $5 million decrease in reserves supporting the money supply). The T-account is shown below:
Banking System
Assets
Liabilities
Reserves
$ 5 million
Securities
$ 5 million
Loans
$50 million
Checkable deposits
$50 million
24. The Fed’s sale of $1 million of bonds shrinks the monetary base by $1 million, and the reduction of
borrowing from the Federal Reserve lowers the monetary base by another $1 million. The resulting
$2 million decline in the monetary base leads to a decline in the money supply.
25. (a) The money supply is given as M  C  D  $600 billion  $900 billion  $1500 billion; c  C/D 
600/900  0.667; e  ER/D  15/900  0.017; m  (1  c)/(rr  e  c)  1.667/0.783  2.13. (b) The
monetary base will increase to $600  $90  $15  $1400  $2105 billion; given the money multiplier
calculated in part (a), this implies the money supply should increase to $2105  2.13  $4483.65 billion.
(c) ER  $1415 billion; e  $1415/$900  1.57; m  (1  0.667)/(0.1  1.57  0.667)  0.71. The money
supply is still $1500 billion, since both currency and deposits have not changed. (d) The results from
part (c) demonstrate that if large amounts of reserves enter the banking system but are held as excess
reserves, it is possible for the money multiplier to fall below one.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 15
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. The snowstorm would cause float to increase, which would increase the monetary base. To counteract
this effect, the manager will undertake a defensive open market sale of securities using a reverse repo
transaction.
2. When the public’s holding of currency increases during holiday periods, the currency–checkable
deposits ratio increases and the money supply falls. To counteract this decline in the money supply,
the Fed will conduct a defensive open market purchase of securities.
3. As we saw in Chapter 14, when the Treasury’s deposits at the Fed fall, the monetary base increases.
To counteract this increase, the manager would undertake an open market sale of securities.
4. Because the decrease in float is only temporary, the monetary base is expected to decline only
temporarily. A repurchase agreement only temporarily injects reserves into the banking system,
so it is a sensible way of counteracting the temporary decline in the monetary base due to the
decline in float.
5. False. The Fed also can affect the level of borrowed reserves by directly limiting the amount of loans
to an individual bank or the broader financial system.
6. Uncertain. In theory, the market for reserves model indicates that once the fed funds rate reaches the
discount rate, it would never surpass the discount rate since banks would then borrow directly from
the Fed, and not in the fed funds market, which would prevent the fed funds rate from ever rising above
the discount rate. However, in practice, the fed funds rate can (and has) been above the discount rate.
This may occur due to the stigma associated with banks borrowing directly from the Fed; i.e., banks
may prefer to pay a higher market rate than to borrow directly from the Fed and incur the perceived
stigma. In addition, nonbank financial institutions, which do not have access to the discount window,
can and do participate in the federal funds market. The extent to which nonbank financial companies
participate in the fed funds market may mean that the gap when the fed funds rate is above the discount
rate may not be arbitraged away.
7. Uncertain. In theory, the market for reserves model indicates that once the fed funds rate reaches the
interest rate on reserves, it would never go below this rate since banks could then earn a risk-free interest
rate paid directly from the Fed, rather than loaning excess reserves in the more risky fed funds market
at an equivalent or lower rate; this should prevent the fed funds rate from ever falling below the interest
rate paid on reserves. However, in practice, the fed funds rate can (and has) been below the interest rate
paid on reserves. This is because nonbank financial institutions, which cannot earn interest on reserves,
participate in the federal funds market and provide a significant amount of funding to the market. The
extent to which nonbank financial companies participate in the fed funds market may mean that the gap
when the fed funds rate is below the interest rate on reserves may not be arbitraged away.
8. During crises, the Fed may need to provide a large amount of liquidity to the banking and
financial system, which would reduce the fed funds rate. If the Fed needs to sterilize these effects, it
would need to conduct open market sales of securities to maintain a given fed funds rate target. If the
liquidity provision is large, then offsetting the liquidity could eventually result in the Fed running out
of securities to sell. In this case, the interest rate on reserves can be raised to push the fed funds rate
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
115
up, without having to conduct offsetting open market sales that decrease the holdings of government
securities by the Fed.
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116
Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
9. Repurchase agreements are used because they are temporary, and allow the Fed to adjust open market
operations relatively easy in response to day-to-day changes in conditions in the market for reserves.
10. It suggests that defensive open market operations are far more common than dynamic operations
because repurchase agreements are used primarily to conduct defensive operations to counteract
temporary changes in the monetary base.
11. Because of the large amount of liquidity in banks and the financial system, this could eventually lead
to substantial inflation problems as liquidity in the form of excess reserves leaves the banking system
through bank lending and ends up as deposits or currency in the hands of the public. But because of
the longer maturities of some of the assets held by the Fed, these assets may not be easily drawn off the
balance sheet in order to remove liquidity from banks and financial markets. As a result, reverse repos
could be used to temporarily but continually remove reserves from the banking system until the longer
maturity securities can be drawn off the balance sheet of the Fed.
12. This statement is false. The FDIC alone would likely be ineffective in eliminating bank panics without
the Fed’s ability to provide discount loans to troubled banks to keep bank failures from spreading.
In particular, the FDIC’s insurance only covers about 1% of total bank deposits. Since the Fed has
unlimited ability to provide loans to the banking system, it can be much more effective in stabilizing
the banking system in a panic.
13. Providing loans to financial institutions creates a moral hazard problem. If firms know that they will
have access to Fed loans, they are more likely to take on risk, knowing that the Fed will bail them
out if a panic should occur. As a result, banks that deserve to go out of business because of poor
management may survive because of Fed liquidity provision to prevent panics. This might lead
to an inefficient banking system with many poorly run banks.
14. Most likely not. If the federal funds rate target is initially below the discount rate and the decline in the
discount rate still leaves it above the federal funds target, then the shift in the supply curve has no effect
on the federal funds rate. However, the Fed usually moves the discount rate in line with changes in the
federal funds rate target, so that changes in the discount rate provide no additional information about
the direction of monetary policy separate from what the fed funds rate target demonstrates.
15. When interest rates rise during a boom, if they rise above the discount rate, there will be borrowing
from the discount window and the level of borrowed reserves will increase. The result is a rise in the
monetary base and the money supply during a boom. Similarly, during a recession, if market interest
rates were above the discount rate, then when they fall, there will be less borrowing from the discount
window and the monetary base will fall, leading to a decline in the money supply. The procyclical
movement of the money supply would be undesirable because it would be expansionary when the
economy is booming and contractionary when the economy is going into recession.
16. False. As the analysis in the market for reserves demonstrates, central banks can still tightly control
interest rates by putting in place standing facilities where the difference between the interest rate paid
on reserves kept at the central bank and the interest rate charged by the Fed to banks is kept small.
17. One problem with this proposal is that it provides perfect control over the official measure of the
money supply, but it may weaken control over the measure of the money supply that is economically
relevant. An additional problem is that it will result in a costly restructuring of the financial system,
as banks are forced to get out of the loan business.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
117
18. Open market operations are more flexible, reversible, and faster to implement than the other two tools.
Discount policy is more flexible, reversible, and faster to implement than changing reserve requirements,
but it is less effective than either of the other two tools.
19. It proved to be more widely used because the interest rate on these loans was set through a competitive
process, and that interest rate was less (in some cases much less) than the discount rate. In addition,
because of the structure of the Term Auction Facility there was some anonymity in the banks that were
accessing these funds, which helped to avoid the stigma associated with discount window lending.
20. Since short-term interest rates cannot be lowered below the zero bound in this environment,
conventional monetary policy would be ineffective. Thus, the main advantage of quantitative easing
is that purchases of intermediate and longer term securities could reduce longer-term interest rates,
increase the money supply further, and lead to expansion. One disadvantage of quantitative easing is
that it may not actually have the effect of increasing economic activity through greater loans and
monetary expansion: If credit and financial markets are significantly damaged, banks may simply hold
the extra liquidity as excess reserves, which would not lead to greater loans and monetary expansion.
21. By purchasing particular types of securities, the Fed can impact interest rates and liquidity in particular
sectors of credit and financial markets, thereby providing a more surgical provision of liquidity where
it may be needed the most (as opposed to typical open market purchases, which add reserves to the
general banking system). For example, as a result of the global financial crisis the Fed purchased a
significant amount of mortgage-backed securities from government sponsored enterprises, which
helped to lower mortgage rates and support the housing market.
22. The main advantage to an unconditional policy commitment is that it provides a significant amount
of transparency and certainty, which makes it easier for markets and households to make decisions
about the future. The main disadvantage is that it represents a tacit commitment by the central bank;
if conditions suddenly change where a change in the policy stance may be warranted, then holding to
the commitment could be destabilizing. On the other hand, not strictly maintaining the commitment
could then be viewed as reneging on a promise, and the central bank could lose significant credibility.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
23. The switch from deposits into currency lowers the amount of reserves as was shown in the T-accounts
of Chapter 14, and this lowers the supply of reserves at any given interest rate, thus shifting the supply
curve to the left. The fall in deposits also leads to lower required reserves and hence a shift in the
demand curve to the left. However, because the fall in required reserves is only a fraction of the fall
in the supply of reserves (because the required reserve ratio is much less than one), the supply curve
shifts left by more than the demand curve. Thus if the discount rate is initially above the fed funds
target, the fed funds rate will rise (as shown in the graph below). However, if the fed funds rate is
at the discount rate, then the fed funds rate will remain at the discount rate.
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118
Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
24. In most cases, the discount rate is set far enough above the fed funds target rate such that, even if there
was a reduction in the discount rate with no change in the target fed funds rate, the equilibrium rate
would still be below the discount rate, thus banks would still be better off borrowing at the market
rate rather than the discount rate. In other words, even if the discount rate decreases, the amount of
borrowed reserves may not change since the equilibrium will still fall below the discount rate, as
shown in the graph below.
25. (a) A rise in checkable deposits leads to a rise in required reserves at any given interest rate, and thus
shifts the demand curve to the right. If the federal funds rate is initially below the discount rate, this
then leads to a rise in the federal funds rate. As shown below, borrowed reserves and non-borrowed
reserves do not change. If the federal funds rate is initially at the discount rate, then the federal
funds rate will just remain at the discount rate, but borrowed reserves will increase.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
119
(b) If banks expect that an unusually large increase in withdrawals will occur in the future, they will
want to hold more excess reserves today, meaning the demand for reserves will increase at any
given interest rate. This will have the same effect on the fed funds rate, NBR, and BR as in part (a)
above.
(c) To raise the target fed funds rate, the Fed will have to conduct an open market sale of securities,
which will shift the supply of non-borrowed reserves to the left. The fed funds rate will increase,
and as long as the equilibrium fed funds rate remains below the discount rate, borrowed reserves
will remain the same.
(d) Raising the interest rate on reserves above the current fed funds rate means that the floor of reserve
demand will push the equilibrium fed funds rate up along with the interest rate on reserves. Both
borrowed reserves and non-borrowed reserves will remain the same.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
121
(e) A decrease in required reserves shifts the demand for reserves line to the left, at any given interest
rate. The result is that the fed funds rate decreases, and NBR and BR remain unchanged.
(f ) With the decrease in required reserves, this reduces reserve demand as shown in part (e) above.
This will decrease the equilibrium fed funds rate. In order to sterilize the effects and keep the fed
funds rate unchanged, the Fed will conduct an open market sale of securities, shifting the reserve
supply line to the left. The end result is that the fed funds rate and borrowed reserves will be
unchanged, and non-borrowed reserves will decrease.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 16
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. A nominal anchor helps promote price stability by tying inflation expectations to low levels directly
through its constraint on the value of money. It can also limit the time-inconsistency problem by
providing an expected constraint on monetary policy.
2. Central bankers might think they can boost output or lower unemployment by pursuing overly
expansionary monetary policy even though in the long run this just leads to higher inflation with no
gains to increasing output or lowering unemployment. Alternatively, politicians may pressure the
central bank to pursue overly expansionary policies.
3. This could pose a problem for a couple reasons. First of all, monetary policy has limited ability to
encourage long-run economic growth other than through its ability to maintain low, stable long-run
inflation and interest rates. Moreover, a strictly interpreted focus on economic growth may result in
an unhealthy focus on keeping short-term interest rates low for a prolonged period of time to raise
investment and consumption in the near-term. This could lead to imbalances in the economy that,
if not properly addressed, could lead to bubbles and financial crises.
4. Uncertain. Most economists probably would not dispute that trying to maintain stability in financial
markets is important to the economy. However, having a constant and prioritized focus on financial
market stability in order to prevent crises in most cases is probably unnecessary since financial crises
are generally pretty rare. In addition, constantly focusing on maintaining stability in financial markets
could come at the expense of ignoring more important factors that can be far more costly to the economy
on a day-to-day basis, such as stabilizing output, unemployment, or other related short-term movements
in the business cycle.
5. False. There is no long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment, so in the long run
a central bank with a dual mandate that attempts to promote maximum employment by pursuing
inflationary policies would have no more success at reducing unemployment than one whose
primary goal is price stability.
6. The success of inflation targeting relies on its ability to credibly anchor inflation expectations at a low,
desirable level. Without formal public announcements and reminders about the numerical inflation
target, markets and the public may have less faith that policymakers are committed to maintaining
the inflation target. And if a formal inflation target is not announced at all, market participants and
the public may not know the exact target and be forced to infer or estimate the target, creating
uncertainty which can raise inflation expectations and unanchor inflation expectations from a low,
desirable level.
7. Inflation targeting increases the accountability of monetary policymakers, and is a mechanism of selfdiscipline which effectively ties the hands of policymakers to commit to a policy path. Because of the
transparency of an inflation targeting framework, it is very easy to verify whether policymakers are
faithful to a committed policy path. As a result, there is much less ability and incentive for policymakers
to deviate to a discretionary policy which could increase output or raise the inflation rate, therefore
mitigating the time-inconsistency problem.
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8. Inflation-targeting central banks engage in extensive public information campaigns that include the
distribution of glossy brochures, the publication of Inflation Report-type documents, making speeches
to the public, and continual communication with the elected government.
9. Sustained success in the conduct of monetary policy as measured against a pre-announced and welldefined inflation target can be instrumental in building public support for a central bank’s independence
and for its policies. Also inflation targeting is consistent with democratic principles because the
central bank is more accountable.
10. False. Inflation targeting does not imply a sole focus on inflation. In practice, inflation targeters do
worry about output fluctuations, and inflation targeting may even be able to reduce output fluctuations
because it allows monetary policymakers to respond more aggressively to declines in demand because
they don’t have to worry that the resulting expansionary monetary policy will lead to a sharp rise in
inflation expectations.
11. This strategy has the following advantages: (a) it enables monetary policy to focus on domestic
considerations; (b) underscoring the importance of price stability has helped it to mitigate the timeinconsistency problem, and (c) it has had a demonstrated success, producing low inflation with the
longest business cycle expansion since World War II. However, it has the following disadvantages:
(a) there has been an inherent lack of transparency (although this has begun to change in the last few
years under Bernanke); (b) it is strongly dependent on the preferences, skills, and trustworthiness of
individuals in the central bank and the government; and (c) it has some inconsistencies with democratic
principles because the central bank is not highly accountable.
12. False. Although it is true that quantitative easing and other types of nonconventional policy can be
used once the zero lower bound is reached on short-term interest rates, it is not a panacea. In particular,
when the economy reaches the zero lower bound, this often can be coupled with deflationary conditions,
which can be hard to design effective policies for, since the outcomes from such policies are much more
uncertain than conventional interest rate policy under typical conditions. In addition, nonconventional
policies such as quantitative easing are more complex to implement, so it may be harder to effectively
use these programs to push the economy away from the zero lower bound.
13. The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates makes it harder to implement expansionary policy as
actual inflation (and hence short-term interest rates) fall closer to zero. As a result, there is less room
to use monetary policy as a stabilization tool in a low inflation environment. In this context, it is argued
that a higher inflation target may be appropriate to give policymakers more flexibility. The downside
of this of course is that in general higher inflation rates can be costly to society, posing a tradeoff for
monetary policymakers in terms of flexibility versus efficiency of monetary policy.
14. There are several reasons why monetary policy may not be effective in eliminating asset price bubbles.
The main reason is that asset price bubbles are extremely difficult to identify in real time; in many cases,
by the time there is a consensus among policymakers and the public that a bubble exists, it is usually
too late to implement policies to effectively deflate the bubble. And even if an asset price bubble is
identified in a timely manner, monetary policy is often thought of as too blunt an instrument to be able
to deal effectively with most asset price bubbles. In particular, interest rate changes may have some
modest short-term effects on reducing the asset price bubble, but the interest rate changes may have far
more consequential effects on real economic activity and cause far worse collateral damage.
15. In general, the question of appropriate policy response is one of minimizing loss. Credit-driven
bubbles (such as the housing bubble experience that resulted in the global financial crisis) can be far
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
more devastating to the economy if a crash occurs than if policymakers acted to reduce the size of the
bubble preemptively. In other words, raising interest rates to try to reduce the bubble may cause
collateral damage to the economy, but it would result in far less damage than would presumably occur
if nothing were done at all and the bubble were allowed to continue to build. On the other hand, noncredit driven bubbles can more easily be dealt with after a crash; since financial markets generally
function relatively normally following these types of bubble crashes, conventional monetary policy
can be relatively effective at mitigating any recessionary conditions in the aftermath. Acting
preemptively to address the bubble is likely to cause more collateral damage than is inflicted by
any downturn related to a non-credit driven bubble crashing.
16. Because a stock market bubble may be hard to identify (at least through consensus) and policy could
cause more damage than necessary, in general Greenspan would advocate not acting directly on the stock
market bubble. However, insofar as the stock market bubble raised wealth and increased consumption
and investment, raising interest rates would be seen as prudent in order to maintain low, stable
inflation and minimize near-term output fluctuations as a result of the higher wealth. In other words,
the Greenspan Doctrine would say not to act directly on the bubble, but to pursue policy as normal to
maintain price stability and stability in real economic activity.
17. (a) The ten-year bond is an intermediate target because it is not directly affected by the tools of the Fed,
but is linked to economic activity. (b) The monetary base is a policy instrument because it can be
directly affected by the tools of the Fed and is only linked to economic activity through its effect on
the money supply. (c) M1 is an intermediate target because it is not directly affected by the tools of the
Fed and has some direct effect on economic activity. (d) The fed funds rate is a policy instrument
because it can be directly affected by the tools of the Fed.
18. True. In such a world, hitting a reserves target would mean that the Fed would also hit its interest-rate
target, or vice versa. Thus the Fed could pursue both a reserves target and an interest-rate target at the
same time, but only if there were no variation in reserve demand.
19. The Fed can control the federal funds rate by buying and selling bonds in the open market. When
the fed funds rate rises above the target level, the Fed would buy bonds, which would increase
nonborrowed reserves and lower the interest rate to its target level. Similarly, when the fed funds rate
falls below the target level, the Fed would sell bonds to raise the interest rate to the target level. The
resulting open market operations would of course affect the quantity of reserves and the money supply
and cause them to change. The Fed would be giving up control of reserves and the money supply to
pursue its interest-rate target.
20. The monetary base is more controllable than M1 because it is more directly influenced by the tools
of the Fed. It is measured more accurately and quickly than M1 because the Fed can calculate the base
from its own balance sheet data, while it constructs M1 numbers from surveys of banks, which take
some time to collect and are not always that accurate. Even though the base is a better intermediate target
on the grounds of measurability and controllability, it is not necessarily a better intermediate target
because its link to economic activity may be weaker than that between M1 and economic activity.
21. Disagree. Although nominal interest rates are measured more accurately and more quickly than reserve
aggregates, the interest-rate variable that is of more concern to policymakers is the real interest rate.
Because the measurement of real interest rates requires estimates of expected inflation, it is not true that
real interest rates are necessarily measured more accurately and more quickly than reserves. Interestrate targets are therefore not necessarily better than reserve targets.
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22. Bank behavior can lead to procyclical money growth because when interest rates rise in a boom, they
decrease excess reserves and increase their borrowing from the Fed, both of which lead to a higher
money supply. Similarly, when interest rates fall in a recession, they increase excess reserves and
decrease their borrowing from the Fed, leading to a lower money supply. The result is that the money
supply will tend to grow faster in booms and slower in recessions—it is procyclical. Fed behavior also
can lead to procyclical money growth because (as the answer to problem 24 indicates) an interest-rate
target can lead to a slower rate of growth of the money supply during recessions and a more rapid rate
of growth during booms.
23. (a) If unemployment rises, this would lower the output gap, and trigger a lower fed funds rate according
to the Taylor rule. (b) If inflation rises by 1%, this alone would prompt the fed funds rate to rise by
1.5 percentage points. The decrease in the output gap alone would imply the fed funds rate would fall
by 0.5 percentage points. Thus, the two factors together imply a net effect of increasing the fed funds
rate by one percentage point according to the Taylor rule. (c) Prolonged increases in productivity growth
would increase potential output, and with the same rate of actual output growth this would cause the
output gap to decline, resulting in a decline in the fed funds rate according to the Taylor rule. (d) If
potential output declines, this is the opposite of (e) above, so the fed funds rate would rise according
to the Taylor rule. (f ) If the inflation target is revised downward, this would increase the inflation gap
at any given inflation rate. This would result in a higher fed funds rate according to the Taylor rule.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
24. An increase in the demand for reserves will raise the federal funds rate. In order to maintain the interest
rate target, the Fed will buy bonds, thereby increasing the amount of nonborrowed reserves, which
shifts the supply curve for reserves to the right, thereby keeping the fed funds rate from rising, as shown
below. The open market purchase will then cause the monetary base and the money supply to rise.
25. (a) Assuming the output gap and all other parameters remain constant, the Taylor Rule is ffr  e  2 
0.5(e  2)  0.5 (1) , where e is expected inflation. Thus, if e  4%, then the fed funds rate should
be set to 4  2  0.5(2)  0.5  7.5%. (b) If the measure of expected inflation is the average of the two
forecasts, then e  0.5(3%  5%)  4%. In this case, again the Taylor rule would imply a setting of
the fed funds rate of 7.5%. (c) If the measure of expected inflation is the average of the two forecasts,
then e  0.5(0%  8%)  4%. In this case, again the Taylor rule would imply a setting of the fed funds
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
rate of 7.5%. (d) Probably not. In the situation in part (a), it is assumed that there is very little uncertainty
about what inflation will be, thus a Taylor rule approach to policy may work fine. However, in (b) and
(c), there is clearly more uncertainty about the state of the economy, and therefore having a mechanical
rule to dictate policy without accounting for this uncertainty could be problematic. For instance, in
part (c), if future inflation actually turned out to be closer to 0%, the Taylor rule policy may prove to
be too tight, and could push the economy into a deflationary situation. This example highlights why
judgment and discretion in interpreting data are important parts of the monetary policy process.
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Chapter 17
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. You are more likely to drink California wine because the euro appreciation makes French wine
relatively more expensive than California wine.
2. False. Although a weak currency has the negative effect of making it more expensive to buy foreign
goods or to travel abroad, it may help domestic industry. Domestic goods become cheaper relative to
foreign goods, and the demand for domestically produced goods increases. The resulting higher sales
of domestic products may lead to higher employment, a beneficial effect on the economy.
3. U.S. dollar depreciation makes U.S. domestic goods cheaper, thus both domestic and foreign consumers
buy more U.S.-produced goods. At the same time, imported goods become more expensive since they
require more dollars per foreign currency to purchase. Thus, U.S. exports will increase and imports
into the United States will decrease.
4. It predicts that the value of the yen will fall 5% in terms of dollars.
5. In the long run, the fall in the demand for a country’s exports leads to a depreciation of its currency,
but the higher tariffs lead to an appreciation. Therefore, the effect on the exchange rate is uncertain.
6. The money supply increases, but this has an insignificant effect on the supply of dollar assets. Since
dollar currency is a small part of total U.S. dollar denominated assets, changes in the money supply
are relatively small and therefore do not shift the supply curve.
7. This would reduce the demand for euro-denominated assets, resulting in a depreciation of the euro
and an appreciation of the Swiss franc and Australian dollar.
8. Even though the Japanese price level rose relative to the American, the yen appreciated because the
increase in Japanese productivity relative to American productivity made it possible for the Japanese
to continue to sell their goods at a profit at a high value of the yen.
9. The dollar will appreciate. Because expected U.S. inflation falls as a result of the announcement, there
will be an expected appreciation of the dollar and so the expected return on dollar assets will rise.
As a result, the demand curve will shift to the right and the equilibrium value of the dollar will rise.
10. The pound depreciates, declining in both the short run and the long run. Consider Britain to be the
domestic country. The lower domestic interest rate on pound assets lowers the expected return on
them at any given exchange rate, shifting the demand curve to the left in the short run. The outcome
is a lower value of the pound. In the long run, the domestic interest rate returns to its previous value,
and the demand curve shifts back to the right somewhat. The exchange rate rises to some extent, but
still remains below its initial level due to the permanently higher relative price level.
11. The Indian rupee will appreciate. The announcement of tariffs will raise the expected future exchange
rate for the rupee and so increase the expected appreciation of the rupee. This means that the demand
for rupee denominated assets will increase, shifting the demand curve to the right, and the rupee
exchange rate therefore rises.
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12. The dollar will depreciate. A rise in nominal interest rates but a decline in the real rate implies a rise in
expected inflation that produces an expected depreciation of the dollar that is larger than the increase
in the domestic interest rate. As a result, the expected return on dollar assets falls at any exchange rate,
shifting the demand curve to the left and leading to a fall in the exchange rate.
13. The dollar will appreciate. The increase in U.S. productivity raises the expected future exchange rate
and thus raises the expected return on dollar assets at any exchange rate. The resulting rightward shift
of the demand curve leads to a rise in the equilibrium exchange rate.
14. The peso will depreciate. Consider Mexico to be the domestic country. An increased demand for
imports would lower the expected future exchange rate and result in a lower expected appreciation
of the peso. The resulting lower expected return on peso assets at any given exchange rate would
then shift the demand curve to the left, leading to a fall in the peso exchange rate.
15. This should (and did) lead to a sharp appreciation of the dollar relative to many other currencies.
The strong demand for U.S. treasuries led to a rise in the demand for U.S. dollar-denominated assets
during this time, hence appreciating the dollar.
16. The quantitative easing program should reduce the demand for U.S. dollar-denominated assets, and
lead to an appreciation of the euro (a depreciation of the dollar). In fact, after the policy announcement
on March 18, 2009 the dollar depreciated more than 4% against the euro.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
17. 70,000 euros  ($1/0.90 euros)  $77,777.77.
18. Spot exchange rate  1.28 CAD/$  ($1/£0.62)  2.0645 Canadian dollars/pound
19. Complete the following transactions simultaneously:
i. Exchange $1.00 into 1.36 New Zealand dollars.
ii. Exchange the 1.36 New Zealand dollars into 0.6664 British pounds.
iii. Exchange the 0.6664 British pounds into $1.0748.
This yields a riskless $0.0748 per U.S. dollar invested.
20. % Change  (1.16  0.90)/0.90  28.88%. The euro has appreciated by 28.88%.
21. Expected exchange rate  10  (1.23/1.02)  12.059 pesos per dollar.
22. If prices rise relative to the United States by (20  5)%  25%, then 25% more pounds will be required
to buy the same U.S. goods. Thus, this will require the exchange rate to be 1.25  £0.55/$  £0.6875/$.
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23. The dollar will depreciate. The drop of expected inflation in Europe, which leads to a decline in the
foreign interest rate (which is smaller than the drop in expected inflation), leads to a decline in
the relative expected return on dollar assets, because the expected euro appreciation is greater than the
decline in the foreign interest rate. The result of the decline in the relative expected return on dollar
assets is a leftward shift of the demand curve, and the equilibrium U.S. dollar exchange rate falls.
The graph is shown below.
24. The contractionary policy will increase European interest rates and raise the future value of the euro,
both of which will decrease the relative expected return on dollar assets. The demand curve will then
shift to the left, and the dollar will depreciate. The graph is shown below.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
25. Consider France to be the domestic country. Because it is harder to get French goods, people will buy
more foreign goods and the value of the euro in the future will fall. The expected depreciation of the
euro lowers the expected return on euro assets at any exchange rate, so the demand for euros declines
and the demand for dollars shifts to the right, as shown in the graph below. Thus, the dollar will
appreciate.
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131
Chapter 18
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. The purchase of dollars involves a sale of foreign assets, which means that international reserves fall.
However, the offsetting open market purchase means that the monetary base and the money supply will
remain unchanged. There is thus no change in the expected return on dollar assets, so the demand curve
does not shift, and the exchange rate also remains unchanged.
2. The purchase of dollars involves a sale of foreign assets, which means that international reserves fall
and the monetary base decreases. The resulting fall in the money supply causes interest rates to rise and
lowers the future price level, thereby raising the future expected exchange rate. Both of these effects
raise the expected return on dollar assets at any given exchange rate, shifting the demand curve to the
right and raising the equilibrium exchange rate.
3. (a) A receipt in the capital account; (b) a payment in the current account; (c) a negative change in net
international reserves; (d) a receipt in the current account; (e) a payment in the current account;
(f) a payment in the capital account; and (g) a receipt in the capital account.
4. Because other countries often intervene in the foreign exchange market when the United States has a
deficit so that U.S. holdings of international reserves do not change. By contrast, when the Netherlands
has a deficit, it must intervene in the foreign exchange market and buy euros, which results in a
reduction of international reserves for the Netherlands and the Euro area.
5. A large balance-of-payments surplus may require a country to finance the surplus by selling its currency
in the foreign exchange market, thereby gaining international reserves. The result is that the central bank
will have supplied more of its currency to the public, and the monetary base will rise. The resulting
rise in the money supply can cause the price level to rise, leading to a higher inflation rate.
6. To finance the deficits, the central banks in these countries might intervene in the foreign exchange
market and buy domestic currency, thereby implementing a contractionary monetary policy. The
result is that they sell off international reserves and their monetary base falls, leading to a decline in
the money supply.
7. The increase in British productivity would create a tendency for the pound to appreciate relative to the
dollar. The higher value of the pound would now cause Americans to exchange dollars for gold, ship
the gold to Britain, and then buy British pounds with the gold. The result is that British holdings of gold
(international reserves) would increase, which would raise the money supply because the monetary base
would increase. The higher British money supply would then tend to lower the exchange rate back down
to its par level because it would cause the price level to rise, which would lead to a depreciation of
the pound.
8. Two francs per dollar.
9. False. Inflation occurred when the world was under the gold standard before World War I. The gold
discoveries in the Klondike and South Africa before World War I led to a continuing increase in the
quantity of gold, which caused a more rapid growth in money supplies throughout the world. The
result was worldwide inflation.
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10. There are several disadvantages to China’s exchange rate strategy. First, diversification is a problem
in that the Chinese own a very large amount of U.S. assets, including low-yielding U.S. treasuries.
Secondly, it has created a backlash among trading countries who have threatened trade sanctions due
to the cheap prices of Chinese exports due to the low yuan peg. Finally, having the undervalued yuan
has resulted in the central bank selling large amounts of yuan currency and raising the domestic Chinese
monetary base and money supply, which has the potential to create high inflation in the future.
11. The situation would be as depicted in Figure 2, Panel (b). The central bank would need to sell domestic
currency and buy foreign assets, thus increasing its international reserves and the monetary base. The
resulting rise in the money supply would then lead to a decline in the domestic interest rate, which would
shift demand for domestic assets to the left so that the equilibrium exchange rate would be at par.
12. Uncertain. Although after 1973, countries no longer must intervene in the foreign exchange market to
keep their currencies at a par level and so could pursue more independent monetary policy, they have
not chosen to do so; rather, they have continued to engage in substantial intervention in the foreign
exchange market. Thus they continue to have substantial fluctuations in international reserves, which
affect their money supply.
13. True, because when the exchange rate is falling, the central bank must buy its currency, which lowers
its holdings of international reserves and its monetary base. Similarly, when the exchange rate is rising,
it must sell its currency, which raises its holdings of international reserves and its monetary base. The
necessary central bank intervention to keep its exchange rate fixed thus affects the monetary base and
hence the money supply. [Note: Question 13 could also be answered “false,” in terms of the policy
trilemma, because a country could opt for fixed exchange rates and independent monetary policy if
it imposes restrictions on capital mobility.]
14. There are no direct effects on the money supply, because there is no central bank intervention in a
pure flexible exchange rate regime; therefore, changes in international reserves that affect the monetary
base do not occur. However, monetary policy can be affected by the foreign exchange market, because
monetary authorities may want to manipulate exchange rates by changing the money supply and
interest rates.
15. German reunification produced tight monetary policy in Germany to limit inflation, which raised
interest rates for the other ERM countries because their currencies were pegged to the German mark.
The high interest rates then slowed economic growth and increased unemployment in the other
countries.
16. With a pegged exchange rate, speculators are sometimes presented with a one-way bet in which the only
direction for a currency to go is down in value when a country’s central bank is unable or unwilling
to defend the currency’s value. In this case, selling the currency before the likely depreciation gives
speculators an attractive profit opportunity with potentially high expected returns. As a result, they
jump on board and attack the currency.
17. Central banks in emerging market countries can have limited ability to act as a lender of last resort since
domestic liquidity provision can lead to higher inflation expectations and a depreciation of the currency.
However, the IMF as an international lender of last resort can help avoid some of the political issues
involved with liquidity provision and help stabilize the currency. Moreover, it can help prevent
speculative attacks which can lead to contagion among other emerging market countries. A disadvantage
to the IMF as an international lender of last resort is that it can encourage risky behavior by countries
by increasing moral hazard, knowing that they will be bailed out by the IMF. In addition, countries are
often required to adopt austerity measures as a condition to lending. However many countries resist
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
133
implementing the austerity measures, knowing that they will get bailed out anyway, creating a timeinconsistency problem.
18. The long-term bond market can help reduce the time-inconsistency problem because politicians and
central banks will realize that pursuing an overly expansionary policy will lead to an inflation scare
in which inflation expectations surge, interest rates rise, and there is a sharp fall in long-term bond
prices. Similarly, they will realize that overly expansionary monetary policy will result in a sharp
fall in the value of the currency. Avoiding these outcomes constrains policymakers and politicians
so time-inconsistent monetary policy is less likely to occur.
19. False. As seen in the chapter, a reserve currency country, such as the United States, can have its
balance of payments deficits financed by foreign central banks, leaving its international reserves
unchanged.
20. When other countries buy U.S. dollars to keep their exchange rates from changing vis-à-vis the dollar
because of the U.S. deficits, they gain international reserves and their monetary base increases. The
outcome is that the money supply in these countries grows faster and leads to higher inflation throughout
the world.
21. First, the exchange-rate target directly keeps inflation under control by tying the inflation rate for
internationally traded goods to that found in the anchor country to which its currency is pegged.
Second, it provides an automatic rule for the conduct of monetary policy that helps mitigate the
time-inconsistency problem. Third, it has the advantage of simplicity and clarity.
22. Exchange rate targeting is likely to be a sensible strategy for industrialized countries when domestic
monetary and political institutions are not conducive to good monetary policymaking, and when there
are other important benefits of an exchange rate target that have nothing to do with monetary policy.
Exchange rate targeting is likely to be sensible for emerging market countries whose political and
monetary institutions are weak so that it is the only way to break inflationary psychology and stabilize
the economy.
23. A currency board has the advantage that the central bank no longer can print money to create inflation,
and so it is a stronger commitment to a fixed exchange rate. The disadvantage is that it is still subject
to a speculative attack, which can lead to a sharp contraction of the money supply. In addition, a currency
board limits the ability of the central bank to play a lender-of-last-resort role. Dollarization has the
advantage that there is no possibility of a speculative attack. Dollarization has the disadvantage that
it results in the loss of seignorage, the revenue to the government from having its own currency.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
24. a.
The Fed’s assets increase by $1 million, and it increases currency in circulation by $1 million.
This results in the monetary base increasing by $1 million.
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Foreign assets
(international
Liabilities
$1 million
Currency in
circulation
$1 million
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
reserves)
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
135
b. The Fed’s assets increase by the increased foreign assets, but this is offset by a decrease in T-bill
holdings of the same amount. Overall, the Fed’s assets are unchanged, and its liabilities and
hence the monetary base are also unchanged.
Federal Reserve System
Assets
Liabilities
$1 million
Foreign assets
(international reserves)
Government bonds
Currency in
circulation
$1 million
25. An increase in U.S. interest rates as a result of the contractionary monetary policy will increase the
demand for dollar assets and reduce the demand for peso assets from D1 to D2, which will appreciate
the dollar and depreciate the peso. This results in the peso being valued below the peg; in order to
maintain the peg, the Mexican central bank must increase domestic interest rates by selling foreign
assets, and buying domestic peso currency. This results in the demand for peso assets to increase back
up to D1 as shown in the graph below. This demonstrates one of the main disadvantages to pegging
the domestic currency in that domestic monetary policy in the pegging country is dependent on foreign
business cycles, meaning that there is no scope for domestic monetary policy stabilization. In this case,
Mexico was forced to import a contractionary policy, which could create unexpected and undesirable
contraction in the domestic economy.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 19
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Since nominal GDP falls during recessions, and as a result expansionary monetary policy, which
increases the money supply is implemented, in most cases velocity will decline during recessions.
During expansions, the money supply will be less expansionary, and nominal GDP will rise,
typically leading to an increase in velocity.
2. The price level will quadruple.
3. Velocity would fall because a greater quantity of the money supply (M) would be needed to carry out
the same level of transactions (PY); PY/M  V would then fall.
4. False. Velocity is equal to nominal GDP divided by the money supply. If nominal GDP increases but
the money supply increases by an even greater amount, velocity will decline.
5. Persistent long-term budget deficits can lead to the perception or worry that policymakers will satisfy
the government budget constraint by monetizing the debt in the future, leading to large increases in the
monetary base that would be highly inflationary. Even if the central bank has no intention of monetizing
the debt, the belief or appearance that the central bank may do this will increase inflation expectations,
making it harder for monetary policymakers to keep inflation anchored at a low, stable level.
6. Uncertain. As long as a country (such as the United States) has reliable access to bond markets and
bond holders are willing to accept and hold treasury debt, a country can continue to rely on borrowing
to meet financial obligations. This relies on the perception that the government will be able to repay
the debts in the future, and there is low risk of default. However, once bond holders believe that budget
deficits have reached unsustainable levels, they may decide not to hold bonds anymore, and this could
force the government to monetize the debt in order to meet financial obligations. In this case, higher
inflation may result.
7. This would lead to a decreased need to hold cash to make transactions, thus the transactions demand
for money would decrease.
8. The need for costly infrastructure to support new payment technologies would mean that cash would
be used more in developing countries relative to rich countries. As a result, the transactions demand
for money would be greater in developing countries relative to rich countries.
9. The three motives are: precautionary, speculative, and transactions motives. From these three motives,
Keynes believed that money demand was positively related to income and negatively related to the
nominal interest rate.
10. This would lead to an increase in demand for money through the precautionary motive.
11. The demand for money will decrease. People would be more likely to expect interest rates to fall and
therefore more likely to expect bond prices to rise. The increase in the expected return on bonds relative
to money will then mean that people would demand less money.
12. Because it indicates that money demand and hence velocity is affected by interest rates, and since
interest rates fluctuate a lot, velocity will as well. Furthermore, as the answer to problem 11 suggests,
changes in people’s expectations about what the normal level of interest rates are will cause money
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
137
demand and hence velocity to fluctuate. Keynes’s analysis of the speculative demand for money thus
suggests that velocity will be far from constant; rather, it will undergo substantial fluctuations.
13. The four factors determining money demand under portfolio theory are: interest rates (decreases in
interest rates increase money demand); wealth (higher wealth leads to higher money demand); risk of
alternative assets (a higher risk of alternative assets increases money demand); and liquidity of other
assets (a decrease in liquidity of alternative assets increases the demand for money).
14. (a) Since risk of alternative assets increases, liquidity of alternative assets likely decreases, and interest
rates likely will fall, this will lead to an increase in money demand. Note that even though wealth
decreases, this will have a modest negative effect on money demand. (b) Cheaper bond transactions
make the bond market more liquid, leading to an increase in demand for bond holdings, and hence
a decrease in the demand for money. (c) The stock market crash would lead to higher volatility, and
hence risk in stocks, which would increase demand for money. The stock market crash would reduce
wealth, but this would likely have a modest negative effect on money demand, leaving money demand
overall higher.
15. The demand for money would likely fall. Compared to other assets, money would be more risky
so people would rather hold more stable assets and less money. In addition, high and unpredictable
inflation will result in very high interest rates, which would reduce money demand. If the government
issues inflation-protected securities, then the demand for money would decrease further as an
alternative to risky money holdings.
16. The demand for money would decrease, similar to problem 15 above, but much more sharply.
Compared to other assets, money would be more risky so people would rather hold more stable assets
and less money. In addition, hyperinflation will result in very high interest rates, which would further
reduce money demand.
17. In Keynes’s view, a rise in interest rates leads to a lower relative expected return of money and hence
a lower demand for money. In the portfolio choice view, a rise in interest rates leads to an increase in
the implicit interest paid on checkable deposits, so the relative expected return of money only falls by
a small amount. Hence, in the portfolio choice view, the demand for money changes little when interest
rates rise.
18. In Keynes’s view, velocity is unpredictable because interest rates, which have large fluctuations, affect
the demand for money and hence velocity. In addition, Keynes’s analysis suggests that if people’s
expectations of the normal level of interest rates change, the demand for money changes. Keynes
thought that these expectations moved unpredictably, meaning that money demand and velocity are
also unpredictable.
19. Velocity is used to indicate if the money demand function is stable. If velocity is predictable and stable,
then the money demand function is also stable, and vice versa. Up until the early 1970s, the money
demand function was stable, but after that, financial innovation made velocity relatively unpredictable
and hence implied a more unstable money demand function. Because of this, the Federal Reserve moved
away from using the money supply as its main policy indicator, and moved to interest rates as its main
monetary policy indicator.
20. This stable relationship implies that the velocity of the M2 money supply is very stable, and hence
money demand is relatively stable. In this case, adjusting the money supply would provide a tight link
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
to aggregate spending, so should be used in the conduct of monetary policy rather than interest rate
adjustment.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
139
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
21. Velocity is approximately 10 in 2010, 10.9 in 2011, and 11.9 in 2012. The rate of velocity growth is
approximately 9% per year.
22. Nominal GDP increases from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion.
23. Nominal GDP declines by approximately 10%.
24. The price level declines from 2 ( 2,000/1,000) to 1.5 ( 1,500/1,000).
25.
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7
Y (in billions)
12,000
12,500
12,250
12,500
12,800
13,000
13,200
Interest Rate
0.05
0.07
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.04
0.06
L(i, Y)
1450
1492.5
1501.25
1512.5
1530
1585
1590
V  Y/L(i, Y)
8.28
8.38
8.16
8.26
8.37
8.20
8.30
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140
Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 20
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. False. Stocks do not add directly to investment in a macroeconomic sense; since the buying and selling
of stocks represents transfers of existing assets, it does not directly create new production. However,
increases in the stock market are likely to coincide with increases in investment, since higher stock
market prices may occur during periods of higher economic growth, which could cause firms to
increase autonomous investment.
2. Since inventories of unsold goods are goods that have been produced, then in an accounting sense,
they add to output and hence aggregate demand. However, since the final end user hasn’t purchased
them yet, they are counted as inventory until they are sold.
3. False. Although inventories are costly to hold, many firms prefer to have extra inventories of unsold
goods on hand in the event that there is an unpredictable increase in demand for their goods, because
this allows firms to satisfy customers’ demands. As a result, planned inventory investment may very
well be positive.
4. During the height of the crisis, financial frictions f increased dramatically, which effectively
raised the real cost of investment. In addition, firms’ planned autonomous investment I decreased
dramatically as the prospects for economic growth and profits in the future weakened sharply. Both
of these factors reduced planned investment, even though real interest rates may have decreased.
5. These shifts in “animal spirits,” according to Keynes, could very well create a recession. If the beliefs
are strong enough, this could significantly reduce autonomous consumption and autonomous planned
investment to the point where equilibrium output decreases substantially, leading to a recession.
6. When the real interest rate increases, this increases the demand for domestic assets, resulting in an
appreciation of the domestic currency. As a result, imported goods become cheaper domestically, and
exported goods become more expensive to foreigners. This reduces net exports, implying an inverse
relationship between the real interest rate and net exports.
7. When the mpc increases, this leads to a larger multiplier effect for any given change in spending,
resulting in higher output. Put another way, when the mpc increases, this leads to a higher amount
of consumption spending out of disposable income. This leads to more production, which leads to
higher income, leading to further increases in spending.
8. Nothing. The $100 billion increase in planned investment spending is exactly offset by the $100 billion
decline in autonomous consumer expenditure, and autonomous spending and aggregate output remain
unchanged.
9. (a) When the real interest rate increases, this reduces planned investment spending and net exports,
which reduces equilibrium output. (b) If the mpc declines, this decreases consumption, hence lowering
equilibrium output. (c) If financial frictions increase, this increases the real cost of borrowing and
reduces planned investment, decreasing equilibrium output. (d) A decrease in autonomous consumption
lowers consumption, decreasing equilibrium output. (e) The decrease in taxes will increase consumption,
which has the effect of increasing output. The decrease in government spending has the effect of
reducing equilibrium output. However, the government spending effect dominates the tax effect. This
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
141
is because changes in taxes work through changes in disposable income to affect consumption, and
households do not spend all of a change in disposable income. On the other hand, changes in
government spending are a direct change in spending. The net effect is a decrease in equilibrium output.
(f ) If x decreases, this will increase net exports at any given real interest rate, holding all other factors
constant. This results in a higher equilibrium output. (g) This would have the effect of increasing
autonomous investment, which increases planned investment and equilibrium output.
10. Rise. The fall in spending from an increase in taxes is always less than the change in taxes because the
marginal propensity to consume is less than 1. By contrast, autonomous spending rises one-for-one
with a change in autonomous consumer expenditure. If taxes and autonomous consumer expenditure
rise by the same amount, autonomous spending must rise, and aggregate output also rises.
11. In this case, as interest rates fall, planned investment spending and net export do not change, so
equilibrium output remains unchanged. This means that the IS curve is vertical.
12. Companies cut production when their unplanned inventory investment is greater than zero, because
they are then producing more than they can sell. If they continue at current production, profits will
suffer because they are building up unwanted inventory, which is costly to store and finance.
13. False. In this case, if actual investment is greater than planned investment, firms are adding to
inventory, thus unplanned inventory investment is positive. This leads firms to reduce production
in order to bring inventories to more desirable levels.
14. (a) This is a movement along the IS curve, and so does not shift the IS curve. (b) This results in
a decrease in equilibrium output at any given interest rate, which shifts the IS curve to the left.
(c) Equilibrium output decreases at any given interest rate, which shifts the IS curve to the left.
(d) Equilibrium output decreases at any given interest rate, which shifts the IS curve to the left.
(e) Equilibrium output decreases at any given interest rate, which shifts the IS curve to the left.
(f) Equilibrium output increases at any given interest rate, which shifts the IS curve to the right.
(g) Equilibrium output increases at any given interest rate, which shifts the IS curve to the right.
15. False. Although the IS curved shifted to the left during the period of the financial crisis, this is
because of external factors which caused a sharp decline in consumption and investment, such as
financial frictions, and sharp decreases in autonomous consumption and investment. If the stimulus
package had not been in place, the IS curve would have shifted much farther to the left.
16. The IS curve is not affected at all, that is, it does not shift. Changes in the real interest rate represent
movements along a given IS curve, and do not shift the curve.
17. (a) A more expensive dollar will result in fewer U.S. exports and more U.S. imports (everything else
the same), therefore decreasing net exports. Graphically, this shifts the IS curve to the left, decreasing
aggregate output at every interest rate. (b) Usually the increase in stock prices is interpreted as having
a positive effect on autonomous planned investment, as investors become more confident about the
future prospects of the economy. Therefore, we should expect autonomous planned investment to
increase and the IS curve to shift to the right. (c) This is an example in which it is quite difficult to
measure the net effect of these events. Depending on the relative magnitude of the shifts, the IS curve
might end up shifting to the left, to the right, or not shifting at all. This problem arises because these
events have opposite effects on the IS curve.
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142
Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
18.
Income Y Disposable Income YD Consumption C
0
–200
120
100
–100
210
200
0
300
300
100
390
400
500
200
300
480
570
600
400
660
19. If an increase of $1,000 in disposable income leads to an increase of $750 in consumption expenditure,
then mpc  0.75. Using this implies that C  1,625  0.75  11,500  10,250. Consumption
expenditure is therefore $10,250 billion.
20. (a) Dell’s inventory on December 31, 2012, is the market value of the 20,000 computers at its
warehouses. Therefore, Dell’s inventory equals 20,000  $500  $10,000,000 on December 31, 2012.
(b) Dell’s inventory spending is the change in the level of its inventory during the course of 2010. On
December 31, 2013, Dell’s inventory equals 25,000  $450  $11,250,000. Therefore, Dell’s inventory
spending in 2010 is $1,250,000  $11,250,000  $10,000,000. (c) During the early stages of an economic
recession, as soon as households’ income starts to fall, firms realize that their sales drop. This results
in fewer orders by their dealers and therefore an increase in the number of goods they stock at their
warehouses (since they probably have already decided about production levels for that period). The
consequence is that inventory spending will be positive for some time, but firms will quickly cut
production and will try to sell their already manufactured goods before increasing production again.
21. Equilibrium output of 2,000 occurs when Y  Yad and the aggregate demand function Yad  C  I  G
 NX  500  0.75Y. Solving for Y implies 0.25Y  500, or Y  2000. If government spending rises by
100, equilibrium output will rise by 400 to 2,400.
22. The change in output Y is given as the change in spending G, multiplied by 1/(1  mpc). Thus
$1000  4G, implying government spending would have to increase by $250 billion in order to
increase equilibrium output by $1000 billion. Alternatively, the change in output is given as the
change in taxes T, multiplied by [mpc]/(1  mpc). Thus $1000  3T, implying taxes would
have to decrease by $333.3 billion in order to increase equilibrium output by $1000 billion.
23. Formally, the effects on output from a change in government spending and a change in taxes are given,
respectively, as YG  G/(1  mpc) and YT  T  mpc/(1  mpc). If both taxes and spending
increase by the same amount, then G  T and the net effect on output is given as Y  YG  YT 
G/(1  mpc)  T  mpc/(1  mpc)  G[1/(1  mpc)  mpc/(1  mpc)]  G. Thus, if both taxes
and government spending increase by the same amount, output will increase by exactly the amount of
the increase in spending (or increase in taxes).
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143
24. (a) C  3.25  0.75(Y  3)  1  0.75Y. I  1.3  0.3(r  1)  1  0.3r. NX  1  0.1r. (b) The IS curve
can be found by setting Y  Yad and solving: Y  1  0.75Y  1  0.3r  3.5 1  0.1r. This implies
0.25Y  4.5  0.4r, or Y  18  1.6r. (c) At r  2, equilibrium output is Y  18  1.6(2)  $14.8 trillion;
At r  5, equilibrium output is Y  18  1.6(5)  $10 trillion. (d)
(e) An increase of government spending of $0.7 trillion will lead to an 0.7/(1  0.75)  $2.8 trillion
increase in equilibrium output at any given interest rate. Thus, the IS curve will shift horizontally
to the right by $2.8 trillion.
25. (a) Using equation (12) in the chapter, the IS curve is given as Y  35.5  2.5r. (b) At an interest rate
of r  4, output is Y  35.5  2.5(4)  25.5. (c) The IS curve is now Y  30.25  2.5r; at an interest rate
of 4, equilibrium output is now Y  20.25. In order to maintain the output level from part (b), the Federal
Reserve would have to set the interest rates such that 25.5  30.25  2.5r, implying the interest rate
setting of r  1.9 to offset the increase in f of 3. Thus, the Federal Reserve will reduce r from r  4
to r  1.9. (d) With the increase in f and the reduction in I , the IS curve is now Y  28.25  2.5r. At
the current interest rate of r  1.9, output is Y  28.25  2.5(1.9)  $23.5 trillion, which is less than the
level of output before the crisis, which does not stabilize output. In order to keep output at $25.5 trillion,
monetary policymakers can set the interest rate such that 25.5  28.25  2.5r, or r  1.1. Alternatively,
fiscal policymakers could increase government spending by $0.4 trillion, or reduce taxes by $0.5 trillion
(while keeping the interest rate at r  1.9). All three of these policies separately would maintain output
at Y  $25.5 trillion.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 21
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. The Fed adjusts the fed funds rate up in response to higher inflation. This requires open market sales
of bonds to remove reserves from the banking system, which results in the desired higher fed funds
rate.
2. The Fed can control the (nominal) fed funds rate, but what matters for impacting economic activity
are real interest rates. The underlying assumption is that inflation is relatively sticky in the short run,
so that changes in the nominal interest rate also imply similar changes in the real interest rate.
3. The upward sloping MP curve implies that real interest rates rise, rather than fall, when inflation
increases. This is necessary because otherwise a rise in inflation would lead to a fall in real interest
rates, which would lead to an increase in output, a further increase in inflation, and a further fall in
real interest rates which would lead to even higher inflation. In other words, the MP curve must be
upward sloping in order to keep inflation from spinning out of control.
4. When   0, this means that the real interest rate will stay constant at r even when inflation changes.
The implication is that as inflation increases, the nominal interest rate will increase by exactly the
same as the inflation rate, so that the real interest rate stays constant.
5. An autonomous tightening of policy results in r increasing, and the MP curve shifting upward; an
autonomous easing of policy results in r decreasing, shifting the MP curve downward.
6. An autonomous tightening or easing of policy may occur if, holding the current inflation rate constant,
there is a change in the expected future inflation rate, a projected weakening of economic activity, or
some other change in the future outlook of the economy or financial markets that warrants a change
in monetary policy stance independent of the current inflation rate.
7. In this case, the MP curve will shift down if there is an autonomous easing of monetary policy.
In addition, if the Fed begins to pay less attention to the inflation rate, this would be equivalent
to a reduction in , which would reduce the slope of the MP curve.
8. False. Even though current inflation was relatively high, the Fed’s distaste for inflation (characterized
by the parameter ) did not change and remained positive. The Fed reduced the fed funds rate through
an autonomous monetary policy easing due to the outlook for weakened economic activity going
forward.
9. As equation (4) in the chapter indicates, the (inverse) slope of the aggregate demand curve is given
as: (d  x)/(1  mpc). Thus, an increase in , d, x, or mpc will all decrease the slope (make the
slope of the AD curve flatter).
10. False. Since  is independent of the autonomous component of monetary policy r , any change in r
will affect the real interest rate the same regardless of the value of . Thus, for a given IS curve, any
change in autonomous monetary policy will have the same impact on output, independent of the
value for .
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145
11. Monetary policy would be less effective in changing output, since net exports represent a reinforcing
channel, in addition to investment, through which interest rate changes can affect output.
12. When an autonomous tightening occurs, the aggregate demand curve shifts left, and when an
autonomous easing occurs, the aggregate demand curve shifts right.
13. (a) The IS curve shifts to the right; the MP curve does not shift; the AD curve shifts to the right.
(b) The increase in taxes shifts the IS curve to the left, and the easing of monetary policy moves the
economy along the IS curve; the tax change does not affect the MP curve, but the monetary policy
change shifts the MP curve down; the monetary policy easing shifts the AD curve to the right, while
the tax increase shifts the AD curve to the left; the net effect on the AD curve cannot be determined
without knowing the relative shifts due to the tax and monetary easing effects. (c) An increase in the
current inflation rate represents a movement along the MP curve, which increases the real interest
rate; the increase in the real interest rate due to the higher inflation represents a movement along the
IS curve to lower output (but does not shift the IS curve); the increase in inflation represents a
movement along the AD curve, reducing output and does not shift the AD curve. (d) A decrease in
autonomous consumption shifts the IS curve to the left; the MP curve does not shift; the AD curve
shifts to the left. (e) Autonomous investment increases, which shifts the IS curve to the right; the MP
curve does not shift; the AD curve shifts to the right. (f ) This represents an increase in , which does
not affect the IS curve; the MP curve becomes steeper; the slope of the AD curve becomes flatter.
14. An increase in U.S. net exports directly affects the IS curve, since planned expenditure increases at
every real interest rate. Assuming the goods market is in equilibrium, aggregate output increases,
shifting the IS curve to the right. The monetary policy curve does not shift, since net exports are
not a determinant of the monetary policy curve. The monetary policy curve represents the monetary
authorities’ willingness to set a given real interest rate in the short run according to current inflation
rates. Given the same monetary policy curve and a new IS curve, the aggregate demand curve shifts
to the right. This means that aggregate output increases at every inflation rate.
15. The aggregate demand curve shifts because a change in “animal spirits” causes autonomous consumer
expenditure or planned investment spending to change, which then causes the quantity of aggregate
output demanded to change at any given inflation rate.
16. The increase in government spending will shift the IS curve to the right more than the increase in taxes
will shift the IS curve to the left. As a result, the net effect is for the IS curve and AD curve to shift to
the right, that is, output increases at any given real interest rate and inflation rate.
17. The effect on the aggregate demand curve is uncertain because increased government spending would
shift the AD curve to the right while the autonomous policy tightening shifts the AD curve to the left.
18. False. If the Fed changes interest rates by exactly the amount of the change in f, this will mitigate the
adverse effects of financial frictions on investment. However, the decrease in the real interest rate will
increase net exports, so that aggregate output will increase. Thus, to offset the increase in financial
frictions, the Fed would need to reduce the real interest rate by a little bit less than the change in f
to keep output constant.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
19. (a) When the inflation rate is 2%, 3%, and 4%, the real interest rate is 3%, 3.75%, and 4.5%,
respectively. (b) See graph in (d) below. (c) Since r increases, this represents an autonomous
tightening of policy. (d) When the inflation rate is 2%, 3%, and 4%, the real interest rate is 4%,
4.75%, and 5.5%. The graph is below.
20. See Figure 4 in the textbook.
21. (a) Y  11.5  0.75. (b) When the inflation rate is 2%, 3%, and 4%, the real interest rate is 3%, 3.75%,
and 4.5%, respectively. Aggregate output is 10, 9.25, and 8.5, respectively. (c) Graphs are below.
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Part Three: Answers to End-of-Chapter Problems
147
22. (a) The MP curve is given as r  2  0.5. The AD curve is given as Y  30.5  1.25. (b) When   2
and   4, the real interest rate is r  3% and 4%. Aggregate output is 28 and 25.5, respectively.
(c) Graphs are shown below.
23. (a) The MP curve is given as r  1  . The AD curve is given as Y  16.4  1.6. (b) r  2; Y  14.8;
C  12.1; I  0.4; NX  1.2. (c) The real interest rate increases to r  3. Y  13.2; C  10.9; I  0.1;
NX  1.3. (d) The Fed may believe that the economy will strengthen in the future or there is a risk
that inflation will rise in the future, so they increased r .
24. The MP curve is given as r  1  . The AD curve is given as Y  16.4  1.6. (b) r  3;
Y  $13.2 trillion. (c) When government spending increases by $0.5 trillion, output will increase by
$2 trillion to Y  $15.2 trillion. (d) In order to keep output constant at Y  $13.2 trillion, the Fed will
have to increase the real interest rate to r  4.25.
25. (a) Y  16  2. At   0,   4, and   8, output is given as Y  16, Y  8, and Y  0, respectively.
Graph is shown below. (b) Y  16  4. Graph is shown below, with graph from part (a). As the
central bank cares more about inflation (i.e., has more distaste for inflation),  increases and the
slope of the AD curve becomes flatter.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
Chapter 22
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. A rise in inflation causes monetary policymakers to raise the real interest rate. This reduces planned
expenditures and lowers the level of output necessary for goods market equilibrium. The opposite
occurs if inflation falls. Therefore, goods market equilibrium will occur at lower levels of output when
the inflation rate rises and at higher levels of output when inflation falls. The downward slope of the
aggregate demand curve reflects this. The short-run aggregate supply curve slopes upward to reflect
the increase in the inflation rate that occurs when the economy’s aggregate output of goods and services
exceeds the potential output level in the short run and the decrease in inflation that occurs when output
is below potential output.
2. The following changes shift the aggregate demand curve to the right: monetary policy easing, increase in
government purchases, decrease in taxes, autonomous increase in consumption, autonomous increase in
investment, autonomous increase in net exports, and a decrease in financial frictions. The opposite
changes in these factors shift the aggregate demand curve to the left.
3. The statement is correct. A depreciation of the U.S. dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper for foreign
consumers at the same time it makes imports into the U.S. more expensive. As a result, exports increase,
imports decrease, and net exports increase. According to aggregate demand and supply analysis, the
aggregate demand curve shifts upward and to the right. Note that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar
might also affect the short-run aggregate supply curve if U.S. firms import many of their inputs. An
increase in the price of inputs will shift the short-run aggregate supply curve up and to the left.
4. When output is at potential, this is considered the full employment level of output. The unemployment
rate at potential output is not zero, since structural and frictional unemployment exist. Thus, the factors
that determine structural and frictional unemployment determine the natural rate of unemployment,
which is also the unemployment rate that occurs when the economy is at potential.
5. As labor productivity grows, the long-run aggregate supply curve shifts to the right. This is because
the existing labor force, along with a given amount of capital and other resources, can produce more
output, indicating a greater amount of potential output.
6. When inflation expectations rise, it shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve up, leading to higher
actual inflation in the short run in addition to any inflationary effects that may occur, for instance
through negative price shocks. This illustrates the danger when inflation expectations become
“unanchored” from a low level, in that it is more difficult for the central bank to then stabilize
inflation, particularly when a temporary inflation shock leads to higher expected inflation.
7. False. As prices and wages become more flexible, γ becomes larger, and the short-run aggregate supply
curve becomes steeper. (In the limit, with perfect flexibility, γ approaches infinity.) Thus, for a given
aggregate demand shock, as the short-run aggregate supply curve becomes steeper the effects on
output are smaller.
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8. Shifts in the short-run aggregate supply curve result from changes in expected inflation, price shocks,
and persistent output gaps. None of these factors shift the long-run aggregate supply curve because
price and wage flexibility ensures that in the long run the economy produces at its potential output
level. Potential output depends not on actual or expected inflation but rather on the capital, labor, and
technology available for producing goods and services. However, a change in potential output shifts
the long-run aggregate supply curve and also the short-run aggregate supply curve because it changes
the output gap at any given level of actual output.
9. The short-run aggregate supply curve will shift upward because wages and production costs rise,
since workers and firms expect prices to be higher.
10. The Internet has reduced the amount of time and money spent looking for a job. It also has allowed
for an increased flow of information between potential employees and employers (e.g., job descriptions,
resumes, and other valuable information are usually available online). This has resulted in a decrease
in the natural rate of unemployment, as unemployed workers are matched with employment
opportunities quicker.
11. When output is less than potential output, unemployment is above the natural rate and labor market
slack causes wages to rise less rapidly. As the Phillips curve suggests, this causes firms to raise their
prices less rapidly and thus decreases the inflation rate. As a result, expected inflation will be lower
in the following time period and the short-run aggregate supply curve will shift downward. This
adjustment process in which inflation and expected inflation fall and the short-run aggregate supply
curve shifts downward continues over time until output increases to the potential output level, the
output gap increases to zero, and the economy reaches long-run equilibrium.
12. The inflation rate will be lower than it otherwise would be and aggregate output will be higher.
The lower expected inflation will cause the short-run aggregate supply curve to shift down, so that
the intersection of the short-run aggregate supply curve with the aggregate demand curve will be
at a higher level of output and a lower inflation rate.
13. When the unemployment rate is above the natural rate of unemployment, there is slack in the labor
market and output is below potential. This causes the short-run aggregate supply curve to shift
downward, leading to lower inflation and higher output over time, until the economy reaches
a long-run equilibrium.
14. An increase in government spending will lead to a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve. In the
short run, inflation and output will both rise. This leads to tightness in the labor market, which raises
inflation expectations and shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve up; as this occurs, the economy
moves to a new long-run equilibrium, output falls back to potential, and inflation increases.
15. Several factors led to an increase in potential output, which helped reduce the unemployment rate and
inflation rate. These included increased efficiencies in the health care industry, an increased proliferation
of computer technology which led to rapid increases in productivity, and favorable demographic factors,
such as an increase in the average age of the workforce, which helped to reduce the natural rate of
unemployment. All of these factors increased potential output and shifted the long-run aggregate supply
curve to the right, with the effect of reducing the unemployment rate and inflation rate through the
late 1990s.
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16. As the answer to question 15 suggests, any type of positive supply shocks (particularly permanent
positive supply shocks) can be considered “good” since they help reduce both unemployment and
inflation in the long run.
17. The Federal Reserve’s policies during that time were not intentionally recessionary, however they were
necessary in order to re-anchor inflation (and inflation expectations) at a permanently lower level. The
only way to achieve this, given that the Federal Reserve had very little credibility in fighting inflation
at the time, was to pursue highly contractionary policies to bring the inflation rate down, a necessary
side effect of which was a sharp decrease in aggregate demand.
18. The Volcker disinflation is considered a success in that the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker,
was finally able to bring inflation down to a permanently lower, stable level after a decade of high
and volatile inflation through most of the 1970s. Unfortunately, the policies to get the economy on a
path of low, stable long-term inflation required significantly contractionary policies. These policies
resulted in two recessions in the early 1980s, with unemployment rising above 12% at its peak. So
although the policies to reduce inflation from the high levels of the 1970s achieved their purpose,
they did not come without some costs.
19. Several factors played in favor of China which allowed them to weather the effects of the financial
crisis better than the United States or the United Kingdom. The economies of the United States and
the United Kingdom in general are more closely tied to the functioning of financial markets, so when
financial markets deteriorated, it hurt the United States and United Kingdom more directly and
significantly. When Lehman Brothers failed and the financial crisis was at its worst, global demand
for goods and services contracted, which did hurt China’s export sector significantly. However, the
biggest difference between the two cases is the policy responses. China pursued a massive fiscal
stimulus, along with an autonomous easing of monetary policy, which together was much stronger
and larger than in the United States or the United Kingdom. The difference in outcomes of the two
cases is telling: Although China’s growth slowed, it did not stall. In the case of the United States and
United Kingdom deep and prolonged recessions resulted.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
20. a. With a temporary negative supply shock, the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts up. In
the short run, output falls and inflation rises. This creates slack in the labor market, which puts
downward pressure on the inflation rate. As labor market slack continues and inflation expectations
fall, the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts back down. Over time the inflation rate falls and
output rises until the economy returns to the long-run equilibrium.
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b. With a permanent negative supply shock, the long-run aggregate supply curve shifts to the left.
This creates a condition in which output is now above potential output, and the labor market
tightens. As inflation and inflation expectations rise, the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts
upward to the new long-run equilibrium. Eventually, output is lower and inflation is higher at the
new long-run equilibrium.
21. Technological change and infrastructure improvements affect the long-run aggregate supply curve.
More fuel-efficient cars result in a decrease in the demand for gas at the same time that innovations in
energy production make it possible to increase the supply of energy at any price level. Innovations in
these fields result in a shift to the right in both the short- and long-run supply curves. Improvements
in infrastructure make transportation of goods to market more efficient, and raise productivity in a
variety of ways. In conclusion, inflation decreases and output increases in the long run.
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22. Because goods would cost more, the national sales tax would raise production costs, and the short-run
aggregate supply curve would shift to the left. The intersection of the short-run aggregate supply curve
with the aggregate demand curve would then be at a higher inflation rate and a lower level of aggregate
output; aggregate output would fall, and the inflation rate would rise.
23. In order for the unemployment rate to rise and inflation to remain constant, both the aggregate supply
and demand curves would have to shift to the left. If they shift horizontally to the left by the same
amount, the result is inflation remaining the same, but output falling and the unemployment rising
in the short run, as shown in the graph below.
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24. (a) Negative demand shock. An increase in financial frictions reduces aggregate demand. Output and
inflation fall in the short run; in the long run, output rises back to potential, and inflation falls.
(b) Positive demand shock. This increases autonomous consumption and investment, which increases
aggregate demand. Output and inflation increase in the short run; in the long run, output falls back
to potential, and inflation increases.
(c) Positive (temporary) supply shock. This shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to the right
(down). Output increases and inflation decreases in the short run; in the long run, output falls back
to potential, and inflation increases, returning to the original level.
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(d) Negative (temporary) supply shock. This shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve to the left (up).
Output decreases and inflation increases in the short run; in the long run, output increases back to
potential, and inflation decreases, returning to the original level.
25. If the public assumes that the current Fed officials are not that worried about inflation, expected
inflation will increase, shifting the short-run aggregate supply curve upward and to the left (as shown
in the graph below). During the spring of 2010 Fed officials were in the difficult position of worrying
when they might have to increase interest rates to fight inflation as there were already some signs of
a possible economic recovery taking place. Increasing interest rates too late would fuel expectations
about inflation, while increasing interest rates too soon will slow down the recovery or even send the
economy back into recession. It is quite difficult to make this decision, which is why most of the time
the conduct of monetary policy is more an art than a science.
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Chapter 23
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. When the inflation gap is negative, this means that the current inflation rate is less than the target
inflation rate.
2. False. If the central bank pursues stabilization policy, it can stabilize both inflation and output
simultaneously by an autonomous easing of policy. If it lowered its inflation target, this would
stabilize inflation temporarily; however, output would still be below potential. In addition, as the
economy recovered from the recession, inflation would naturally begin to fall more due to the
self-correcting mechanism. Thus in order to allow the economy to move back to the potential
level of output, the central bank would need to then continuously adjust its inflation target.
Constant adjustment of the inflation target would be inefficient, and could send mixed signals
to the public about what it is doing and why.
3. (a) A reduction in autonomous consumption reduces aggregate demand, so monetary policymakers
would pursue an autonomous easing of monetary policy to stabilize economic activity. (b) A reduction
in financial frictions increases aggregate demand, so monetary policymakers would pursue an
autonomous tightening of monetary policy to stabilize economic activity. (c) An increase in government
spending increases aggregate demand, so monetary policymakers would pursue an autonomous
tightening of monetary policy to stabilize economic activity. (d) An increase in taxes reduces aggregate
demand, so monetary policymakers would pursue an autonomous easing of monetary policy to stabilize
economic activity. (e) An appreciation of the domestic currency leads to lower exports and higher
imports, which reduces net exports and aggregate demand, so monetary policymakers would pursue
an autonomous easing of monetary policy to stabilize economic activity.
4. The Fed lowered the fed funds rate to zero during the crisis to offset falling aggregate demand;
however, this was insufficient to stabilize aggregate demand and output. As a result, the Fed
resorted to nonconventional monetary policy to help offset the financial frictions. This involved
liquidity provision and asset purchases, which helped to lower medium and longer-term interest rates,
and helped to increase aggregate demand, despite having reached the zero lower bound on the federal
funds rate. However, due to the severity of the crisis, these policies were insufficient to fully stabilize
economic activity and bring output to potential.
5. The divine coincidence exists when policies that are appropriate to achieve price stability also stabilize
economic activity. In this case, policymakers have easier jobs because there is no tradeoff between
policy objectives and they do not have to choose between them. They can, in other words, have their
cake and eat it, too. The divine coincidence occurs when the economy is beset with aggregate demand
shocks or permanent supply shocks, but not when it experiences temporary supply shocks. When faced
with either of the first two shocks, policymakers can stabilize both inflation and economic activity by
enacting policies to shift the economy’s aggregate demand curve and return to long-run equilibrium
at potential output. In the case of a temporary supply shock, however, policies that shift the aggregate
demand curve to achieve inflation stability will move the economy further away from potential output
and those aimed at stabilizing economic activity at potential output will cause the inflation rate to move
further away from the target rate.
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6. With negative supply shocks, both inflation and the unemployment rate increase. In order to reduce the
unemployment rate, an expansionary policy must be pursued, which further increases inflation. On
the other hand, pursuing a policy to reduce the inflation rate requires a contractionary policy, which
further increases the unemployment rate. Thus, with negative supply shocks stabilization policy
requires a tradeoff between achieving the objectives of inflation stabilization and stabilization of real
economic activity.
7. In both cases inflation rises and output falls; however, in the case of a permanent negative supply shock,
the long-run effects on these variables are permanent. With a temporary negative supply shock, inflation
will increase and output fall, but eventually as the shock wears off and the self-correcting mechanism
moves the economy back to the long-run equilibrium, both output and inflation will return back to their
previous levels. In other words, the adverse effects are only temporary in the latter case, but permanent
in the former case.
8. In country A, policymakers chose a policy to stabilize output. In country B, policymakers chose
a policy to stabilize inflation. In country C, policymakers chose no policy response, i.e., left autonomous
monetary policy unchanged.
9. Uncertain. A temporary positive supply shock has the dual benefits of increasing output and also
reducing inflation, so in some sense policymakers get the best of both worlds by not pursuing any type
of stabilization policy. However, if the supply shock is large enough, it could reduce inflation and/or
increase output enough such that it could create more variability and hence uncertainty in inflation,
which could actually be destabilizing. In this case, it may be in the best interest of policymakers to
pursue a policy that stabilizes the inflation rate in the short run, until the supply shock wears off
(this would have the added benefit of temporarily increasing output more than if policymakers
did nothing).
10. This demonstrates the problem of effectiveness lags in the implementation of monetary policy.
Changes in monetary policy impact interest rates, which affect the cost of investment in new plant
and equipment. Since it can be many months before new plant and equipment is purchased and put
into use, the interest rate effects of monetary policy occur with a lag.
11. This refers to the legislative lag (of fiscal policy).
12. Stabilization policy is conducted more frequently using monetary policy rather than fiscal policy
because implementing fiscal policy requires making changes in taxes and government spending that
take longer to deliberate and enact than monetary policy decisions do.
13. True. If the first parts of the statement could be achieved, the objection to activist policy would no
longer be as serious. For instance, in response to aggregate demand shocks, the aggregate demand
curve could be more quickly shifted to potential output, resulting in less variation in both inflation
and output, and making an activist policy more desirable.
14. Activists argue that wages are inflexible, and in particular that they are not likely to fall as would be
needed for the self-correcting mechanism to adjust to long-run equilibrium if the economy suffers from
low output and high unemployment. Wages and prices may be prevented from changing by existing
contractual agreements, for example, between employers and workers. Expected inflation may be slow
to adjust, which will delay the upward or downward shifts of the short-run aggregate supply curve that
are part of the self-correcting mechanism.
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15. Not necessarily, because an activist policy to eliminate unemployment could lead to the demand-pull
and cost-push inflations depicted in Figure 9 and Figure 10 in the chapter. In addition, the activist policy
might lead to a higher probability that workers will push up their wages, which results in episodes of
high unemployment.
16. Evidence showing that the welfare gains from stabilizing output and unemployment are relatively small
supports the nonactivist case. This is actually a major topic in macroeconomics, which was addressed
by the Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Lucas. Lucas developed a theoretical model meant to
represent the U.S. economy after World War II and used to measure how well off the average individual
would be if the government followed a stabilization policy agenda. He concluded that there is only
a tiny increase in the well-being of the average individual resulting from stabilization policy. On the
contrary, monetary and fiscal policies focused on the long run resulted in much bigger welfare gains
for the average individual, making them a better option over stabilization policy.
17. When the short-run aggregate supply curve has a steeper slope, wages and prices in general are more
flexible (i.e., changes in output result in larger changes in the inflation rate). This situation constitutes
a stronger argument in favor of nonactivist policy, since changes in the aggregate demand curve will
result in smaller changes in output and unemployment when the short-run aggregate supply curve is
steeper. Alternatively, one might think that further efforts in terms of activist monetary or fiscal policy
are needed to affect output if prices and wages are less flexible (which is the case when the short-run
aggregate supply curve is flatter).
18. False. Even though policymakers do not want inflation, if they pursue goals such as high employment
or choose to run high budget deficits, inflationary monetary policy and inflation can result through the
mechanisms discussed in this chapter.
19. Monetary policymakers can target any inflation rate they want to simply by implementing autonomous
monetary policy easing (to target a higher inflation rate) or tightening (to target a lower one). However,
although they can exert this control over inflation in the long run, they have no control over real interest
rates or potential output in the long run, so the classical dichotomy and monetary neutrality hold just as
they do in the classical framework.
20. If policymakers believe that the natural rate of unemployment is 7% when it is actually 5%, then once
the unemployment rate begins to drop below 7%, they are likely to pursue contractionary policy to avoid
a perceived potential demand-pull inflation problem. In actuality, this would represent a situation where
policymakers are contracting the economy when it is already in recession. The result of these policies
is that this could create a downward spiral in inflation, which could lead to deflation and a severe
economic downturn.
21.
When inflation increases due to demand-side conditions, this
could prompt workers to demand higher wages (which are greater than the growth in labor
productivity) in anticipation of future higher inflation. This results in the aggregate supply curve
shifting upward, and creating cost-push inflation (which was initiated by a demand-pull inflation
source).
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
22. (a) According to aggregate demand and supply analysis, the decrease in government expenditures
results in a shift to the left in the aggregate demand curve, as aggregate expenditures decrease at
every inflation rate. As a result, the new intersection point with the short-run aggregate supply curve
determines a lower inflation rate and output level than before, as shown below. At this point, output
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is below potential output and inflation is below its target. (b) If the Federal Reserve decides to use its
monetary policy tools to stabilize inflation, it will effectively decrease the real interest rate at every
inflation rate, thereby shifting the MP curve downward. This action will shift the AD curve to the right
and restore the economy to its long-run equilibrium, where the inflation rate returns to its target  T and
output is at potential output again. The only long-run effect of this policy is to affect the real interest
rate, which is now set at a lower level than the previous long-run equilibrium.
23. Suppose the economy is currently in recession at point A in the graph, and policymakers wish to stabilize
output. Given current assumptions about the state of the economy, policymakers may devise a policy
which they anticipate will shift aggregate demand out to ADA and stabilize the economy. However,
because of lags in the policy process (which were presumably unaccounted for or unknown), it may
take some time before the policy changes actually take effect. If the economy begins to recover and
demand begins to expand independent of the policy effects, then once the policy actually takes hold,
it could expand aggregate demand beyond potential output, to a point such as point C. In this case,
output overshoots potential and inflation is higher than anticipated, which can lead to further increases
in inflation as inflation expectations adjust upward. Moreover, once at point C, policymakers may try
to correct the overshoot, which could lead to aggregate demand shifting back below ADA and lead to
further volatility in both inflation and output.
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24. As seen in the graph below, when the aggregate demand curve becomes flatter, then for a given
negative aggregate supply shock this implies that the increase in inflation is smaller, and the reduction
in output is larger. Thus, as the aggregate demand curve becomes flatter, inflation is kept closer to the
original level; however, the output effects are more pronounced.
25. Graft and corruption result in significant inefficiencies in markets, and particularly in the way that
goods and services are provided to consumers and other firms. As a result, this has the effect of
reducing the long-run productive capacity of the economy, and acts like a permanent negative supply
shock, as the graph below shows. This leads to higher inflation and reductions in the potential level of
output, which is reflected in the low or even negative growth that these countries can exhibit.
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Chapter 24
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. The Lucas critique says that policymakers’ priors about the effects of a given policy will generally be
wrong, since it is difficult for policymakers to accurately take into account the reaction by people to
changes in policies. This points out the limitation to our understanding of how the economy works
in that current research cannot fully explain and model accurately the behavior of individuals, and
therefore policymakers have to rely on fundamentally flawed models to estimate the effects of
policies on the economy.
2. True, because the Lucas critique indicates that the effect of policy on inflation and output depends on
the public’s expectations about the policy. The outcome of a particular policy is therefore less certain
in Lucas’s view than if expectations about it do not matter, and it is harder to design a beneficial activist
stabilization policy.
3. (a) According to the rational expectation theory, individuals might interpret this increase in the federal
funds rate target as a signal that the Fed will commit to fight inflation. The increase in the federal
funds rate determines an increase in real interest rates in the short run and results in a higher user cost
of capital. Although this might reduce investment, it is possible that individuals recognize the Fed’s
intentions and therefore decide to increase investment in anticipation of a low inflation economic
environment that encourages investment. (b) Lucas’s critique will point out the fact that the model was
probably constructed by using past data in which domestic investment decreased after interest rates
increased. But that model does not take into consideration that individuals might revise their
expectations quite quickly and might decide to alter the way in which they respond to changes in
economic variables, like the interest rate.
4. Long-term interest rates will fall. Theories of the term structure suggest that long-term interest rates
are related to the expected average of future short-term interest rates. When the public expects the
Fed to raise short-term interest rates permanently, they raise their expectations of future short-term
rates and long rates are higher. Then, when the Fed does not go through with the expected policy of
raising short-term rates, the public will realize that their expectations were mistaken and will revise
their expectations of short-term rates downward. The result is that the Fed’s decision not to go through
with the policy change causes long-term interest rates to fall.
5. When central banks are more independent, there is less formal accountability by them to pursue stable
inflation policies. In this sense, it is easier for central banks to give the appearance of desiring to pursue
low inflation policies, while in actuality pursuing more expansionary policies to lower the unemployment
rate and increase output. However, even with greater central bank independence, the time inconsistency
problem can be somewhat alleviated through greater transparency and communication, which means
that there is less ability for the public to be fooled into false expectations, and therefore less ability for
the central bank to pursue overly inflationary policies to increase output and lower unemployment in
the short-run.
6. Advocates of rules argue that they solve the time-inconsistency problem so that policymakers will
achieve good long-run economic outcomes, that they will prevent repeating serious policy mistakes
that have been made in the past, and that they will avoid political business cycles that might result if
policymakers were free to adopt expansionary policies before an election followed by contractionary
policies afterwards. Opponents argue that rules are too rigid and deny policymakers the flexibility they
need to deal with unforeseeable problems, that they do not allow any role for judgment in policy making,
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that they may be based on incorrect models of the economy, and that they will lead to bad economic
outcomes if the economy undergoes structural changes.
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7. The rise in expected inflation as a result of the election would shift the short-run aggregate supply curve
upward, which would lead to a rise in inflation and a fall in output.
8. Yes, if budget deficits are expected to lead to an inflationary monetary policy and expectations about
monetary policy affect the short-run aggregate supply curve. In this case, a large budget deficit would
cause the short-run aggregate supply curve to shift upward because expected inflation would be higher.
The result is that the increase in the current inflation rate would be higher.
9. When a president has the authority to nominate or lay off the head of the central bank, it is quite
plausible that the conduct of monetary policy would be discretionary. Adherence to monetary policy
rules involves imposing some hardship on the economy sometimes. If the president can pressure the
head of the central bank, then most likely monetary policy will be discretionary and follow the dictates
of the president or his/her political party. This is actually what happened in many South American
countries in the 1970s and 1980s. Not surprisingly, most of these countries could not reach long-run
goals such as price stability during this period. Also, frequent changes in monetary policy (and fiscal
policy) resulted in increased output volatility and low growth. Although most central banks are still
subject to pressure from politicians, it is widely understood that some independence is desirable.
10. (a) The benefit of sticking to a set of rules when following a diet include reaching a given goal,
probably defined in terms of a desired weight. The costs can be measured in terms of the lost
opportunities to savor tasty food or desserts. In this case costs are short lived, although it is quite
easy to succumb to such temptations. This could be compared to a central bank pursuing overly
expansionary policy to surprise market participants and temporarily decrease unemployment. Even
if that pays off in the short run, it will most likely reduce the central bank’s credibility and make
it more difficult to attain the long-run goal.
(b) The benefit of sticking to a set of rules in this case might be considered a little more controversial.
Giving children a clear set of rules and making every possible effort to enforce them seems to have
positive effects in the long run. However, this might be quite difficult, as many parents can confirm.
Also, it might not be that clear that excessive rules have a positive effect on children. In any event,
parents who decide to set up rules will eventually face the problem that giving in will decrease
their reputation and compromise the credibility of future rules. The cost of following rules when
raising children is that one cannot possibly think of all the situations that might arise in a child’s
life, and it is therefore impossible to set a rule for everything. On top of that, enforcing every rule
might create severe problems in the short run, as the lack of discretion might hurt the economy
if fiscal policy is designed to follow strict rules (e.g., like forcing governments to balance their
budget every year).
11. Switzerland established a formal monetary aggregate targeting rule as a basis for monetary policy
operations in the 1970s. Problems with this targeting approach began in the late 1980s when a series
of changes in the banking system altered the connection between the monetary base target and economic
activity. In particular, the previous monetary base target meant that, with the structural changes to the
economy, monetary policy was far too expansionary which created undesirably high inflation pressure.
This example highlights one of the main problems with policy rules in that it is difficult to design policy
rules that can appropriately account for structural changes in the economy. In this sense, some amount
of discretion in the policy process can help address structural changes in the economy.
12. Constrained discretion is a more transparent and disciplined type of discretion in which the general
objectives and tactics of the policymaker are committed to in advance. This allows for some flexibility
in policy actions (as in a purely discretionary regime), but somewhat limits the ability of policymakers
to pursue overly expansionary policies as long as they are committed to the general objectives and tactics
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laid out. The difference in outcomes is that under constrained discretion, since policymakers are likely
to have more credibility through commitment and transparency, inflation and inflation expectations are
likely to be lower than under pure discretion, without giving up much flexibility to address changes in
the real economy.
13. In general, when central banks lack credibility, there is little faith by the public that the central bank
will pursue policies that will result in low, stable inflation. As a result, inflation expectations are likely
to be higher, leading to an upward shift in the short-run aggregate supply curve. This results in higher
actual inflation and lower output, which is obviously less desirable an outcome than if the central bank
were to have full credibility.
14. This is a clear sign that the Fed enjoys a high level of credibility. This credibility was probably earned
through the last two decades. Although the Fed never explicitly stated an inflation target, many people
believe that Fed officials had an inflation target in their minds during this period. Even though it was
not announced, this target was assumed to be above zero, and (here is where opinions differ) around
1.5% to 2.5% annual inflation rate. Even if the Fed has not announced an inflation target, and can
therefore not be held accountable for missing it, it is quite clear that individuals believe that the Fed is
and has been concerned about keeping inflation at low and stable levels. Finally, even more impressive
is the fact that the monetary base increased significantly as a consequence of the Fed’s actions to support
the U.S. financial system, but this did not result in high expected inflation, either.
15. True, if expectations about policy affect the wage- and price-setting process. In models in which
expectations about policy are relevant, a credible anti-inflation policy reduces inflation faster and at
lower output costs than an anti-inflation policy that is not believed (and hence not expected) by the
public.
16. As Figure 3 in the chapter demonstrates, the oil price shocks in the 1970s resulted in significantly higher
inflation and unemployment as compared to the shock which affected the economy beginning in 2007.
The main distinction between the two episodes is the role of policy credibility. In the case of the 1970s,
the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping inflation low was weak, so the oil price shocks shifted
the aggregate supply curve upward not only due to the shock itself, but also due to higher inflation
expectations as a result of weak Fed credibility. In contrast, the Federal Reserve’s commitment to
keep inflation low and stable in the last couple of decades has created strong Fed credibility. This
kept inflation expectations from rising very much as a result of the 2007 shock, so the effects on
actual inflation and the unemployment were more subdued than in the 1970s episodes.
17. Announcements about the inflation targets and potential punishments for central bank officials are
crucial for inflation targeting. It is very important for the public to be able to check whether the
target has been reached or not. When central bank officials know that the public can easily check
their performance, they have an extra incentive to do everything in their power to attain their goals,
as their reputation is at stake. Even if their reputation is not that important to them, they have an
incentive to do their job, since they might be fired otherwise. When the central bank officials and the
general public know “the rules of the game,” there is a higher probability that monetary policy will be
more credible. In conclusion, transparency could be a good ingredient in the conduct of any specific
type of monetary policy. This was recognized by the Federal Reserve some time ago. Even if the
Fed is not engaged in inflation targeting (or any monetary policy with an explicit nominal anchor),
it recognized the need to communicate with the public its decisions about the federal funds rate
target some years ago.
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18. The statistical office’s mistake will obviously hurt the central bank’s credibility and will mean that the
inflation target was missed. Depending on the set of rules governing the central bank, some officers
might be dismissed. When pursuing an inflation target, accurate inflation measurement is critical.
It could technically happen that a couple of prices might artificially pull up the price index, therefore
increasing inflation measures more than necessary. This is true for some important prices, like the price
of oil and gas, in most industrialized countries. To avoid this problem, other price indices, which do not
consider the price of oil and gas, are constructed. When evaluating the performance of the central bank
engaged in inflation targeting, more than one price index is analyzed. In addition, effective and clear
communication with the public and government authorities is crucial for everyone to understand the
limits of these measures and the limits to the central bank’s actions. If this limitation is not properly
understood, the central bank’s credibility will be hard to earn and maintain.
19. Inflation targeting has two basic purposes, to keep inflation under control and to increase the credibility
of monetary policymakers’ commitment to price stability. These are achieved by announcing a
numerical target for inflation and a commitment to price stability as the primary long-run goal of
monetary policy, increasing communications with the public and financial market participants
about the goals and processes of monetary policy making, and holding policymakers accountable
for achieving the inflation target that has been set.
20. Tying its domestic currency to another country’s currency is an easy way for a country with a poor
inflation record to establish credibility. This is because a formal exchange rate target provides a simple
and clear rule for monetary policymakers to follow, which is easily verifiable. Thus, commitment to
the exchange rate target significantly reduces the time-inconsistency problem by limiting discretionary
policy. Moreover, committing to an exchange rate target with a country that has a good record of low,
stable inflation means that the domestic economy will import that low inflation environment, as long
as it maintains its commitment to the target.
21. A conservative central banker is one who has a strong and notable dislike for inflation. In other words,
a conservative central banker would be appointed to project a strong aversion to inflation and be
committed to keeping inflation low and stable.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
22. A severe downturn would result in the aggregate demand curve shifting sharply to the left to AD2 below.
With a strict constant money growth rule, this would result in a limited expansionary effect on aggregate
demand, shifting aggregate demand back to AD3. However, this would be inadequate to fully stabilize
output, and a recessionary condition would still persist. This could reflect poorly on the central bank
in the sense that, by failing to stabilize output, it may be viewed by the public as not doing its job. The
central bank could abandon the constant money growth rule and expand aggregate demand enough
to move the economy back to potential output (at AD1), however this would be moving away from a
rules-based policy, which helps keep credibility high and inflation expectations low, to a more
discretionary framework in which credibility would be lower and inflation expectations higher.
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23. In country A, the public is more likely to believe announcements about future policy changes, and
therefore adjust inflation expectations in anticipation of changes in future policy. As a result, aggregate
supply will adjust more quickly to policy announcements compared to country B in which the central
bank has no credibility. If the central banks both announce an autonomous tightening policy to reduce
the target inflation rate, the aggregate supply curve will shift down much quicker in country A than
country B. With no credibility, country B would likely have to contract aggregate demand first and let
expectations adjust after the policy is implemented to achieve the same lower long-term inflation rate
as country A. The implication is that output will be more stable in country A than in country B, and
the adjustment process is faster in country A than country B.
24. Since the aggregate demand curve, potential output, the parameter , and the price shock are identical
in both countries, the only factor that can explain the difference in inflation between the two countries
is expected inflation. Country B’s inflation rate jumps much higher and stays elevated for much longer
than country A’s inflation rate, which must be reflective of higher inflation expectations in country B.
The implication is that the central bank in country B has less credibility at maintaining low, stable
inflation than country A, thus as a result of the negative supply shock, households and firms raised
inflation expectations more as a result of the weak commitment by the central bank in country B.
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25. Positive aggregate demand shocks shift the aggregate demand curve to the right, causing both
inflation and output to rise. Without a credible nominal anchor, the increase in inflation causes
expected inflation to rise, which shifts the short-run aggregate supply curve upward and causes the
inflation rate to increase further to 3. With a credible nominal anchor, however, expected inflation
does not change, so there is no upward shift in the short-run aggregate supply curve. Thus, with a
credible nominal anchor, inflation is more stable following the demand shock.
The outcome is similar when a negative aggregate supply shock occurs. Inflation increases and
output falls as the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts upward, but with a credible nominal anchor,
expected inflation does not increase. As a result, no further upward shifts of the short-run aggregate
supply curve occur and the increase in inflation and decrease in output are not as great as they otherwise
would be. Thus the credible nominal anchor brings about better outcomes for both inflation and output
when a negative supply shock occurs, as shown in the graph below.
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Chapter 25
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1. Despite very low interest rates as a result of monetary easing, expenditures on consumer durables were
weak at this period of time, indicating that the interest rate channel, as it affected consumer durables,
was not very healthy. As a result, the government instituted such programs in order to more directly
stimulate spending in these areas.
2. Uncertain. Although consumption is the largest part of overall U.S. GDP, and there is no doubt that these
channels can be important to monetary policy effectiveness, some may disagree with this statement.
For instance, even though investment is closer to 15% of U.S. GDP, investment fluctuations are much
more pronounced over the business cycle than changes in consumption, leading to the possibility that
interest rate effects on investment could be potentially more important. In addition, proponents of the
credit view believe that credit market effects are much more important than interest rate effects, and
since the credit view primarily impacts investment, credit effects on investment could be potentially
more powerful than consumption effects from monetary policy changes.
3. If the central bank commits to a higher inflation policy while maintaining low nominal interest rates,
this will raise inflation expectations and therefore lower real interest rates, even if the nominal interest
rate is zero. In addition, the central bank can commit to keeping short-term interest rates low for
a long time, which can have the effect of lowering longer-term nominal interest rates, which also
reduces real longer-term interest rates.
4. Part of the problem with deflation is that lower (negative) inflation raises the real interest rate, which
raises the cost of capital and lowers investment and consumption through the interest-rate channel,
creating further deflationary pressure. In addition, short-term nominal interest rates reach the zero
lower bound, meaning traditional monetary policy is rendered ineffective. Thus, by being “responsibly
irresponsible,” central banks can commit to creating strong but temporary inflationary policies that are
designed to raise inflation expectations (and hence lower real interest rates) enough to create stimulus
through the interest-rate channel and expand aggregate demand safely and surely to get out of
a deflationary spiral.
5. An advantage to monetary policy having so many channels through which it can impact the economy
is that if policy is rendered ineffective through any one particular channel, it doesn’t mean the policy
is entirely ineffective, as there are other channels and other sectors of the economy in which the same
policy can still impact the economy. On the other hand, having so many different channels through
which monetary policy operates can increase uncertainty over the effects of any given policy.
6. True. When countries fix their exchange rate, they must use monetary policy to affect the interest rate
in order to maintain the exchange rate. In other words, the central bank must change the real interest
rate to maintain the exchange rate, which means net exports and aggregate demand will be unaffected
as long as the exchange rate peg is maintained.
7. There are four main mechanisms through which the decline in stock prices could have reduced
aggregate demand and contributed to the severity of the recession. First, the decline in stock prices
lowered Tobin’s q and might have reduced investment spending. Second, the decline in financial wealth,
as a result of the stock price decline, could have caused a drop in consumption because consumers’
lifetime resources were reduced. Third, the decline in stock prices lowered the value of financial assets,
which increased the public’s probability of financial distress, and so they cut back on their purchases
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of consumer durables and housing. Fourth, the decline in stock prices lowers the net worth of business
firms, which increases adverse selection and moral hazard problems in lending and might have resulted
in a reduction in lending and less investment spending.
8. False. Monetary policy can affect stock prices, which affect Tobin’s q and adverse selection and moral
hazard problems in lending, thereby affecting investment spending. In addition, monetary policy can
affect loan availability, which may influence investment spending.
9. Stock prices will rise. The monetary easing lowers interest rates, so the yields on alternative assets to
stocks, such as bonds, fall. This makes stocks more attractive, increases their demand, and hence raises
their price.
10. The lower real interest rates would stimulate investment spending because the cost of financing
investments would fall. However, the stock market decline would cause the market value of firms
to fall and so Tobin’s q to fall. The decline in Tobin’s q would then lead to a decline in investment
spending. Because the stock market and the Tobin’s q decline was so large, investment spending
actually fell dramatically during this period.
11. There are three mechanisms involving consumer expenditure. First, an expansionary monetary policy
lowers interest rates and reduces the cost of financing purchases of consumer durables, and consumer
durable expenditure rises. Second, an expansionary monetary policy causes stock prices and wealth to
rise, leading to greater lifetime resources for consumers and causing them to increase their consumption.
Third, an expansionary monetary policy that causes stock prices and the value of financial assets to
rise also lowers people’s probability of financial distress, so they spend more on consumer durables.
12. This situation is consistent with Tobin’s q and the wealth effects of expansionary monetary policy. With
lower interest rates, stock prices rise. Tobin’s q predicts that investment will increase, stimulating
aggregate demand. In addition, with the higher stock prices, this will raise wealth, and lead to higher
consumption and increased aggregate demand.
13. The wealth channel suggests that this type of monetary policy would raise stock prices and increase
house prices, which would raise homeowners’ equity, and hence wealth through housing and stock
markets. However, even though real interest rates were low, stock values and housing wealth declined
sharply, which ultimately decreased consumption and aggregate demand, suggesting monetary policy
effects through the wealth channel were ineffective during the global financial crisis.
14. With an increase in bank reserves, the bank lending channel predicts that deposits and loans will
increase, leading to higher investment. However, the increased amount of reserves did not translate to
higher lending due to perceived credit risks by lending banks. As a result, banks chose to simply hold
the increased amount of reserves as excess reserves rather than loan them out, indicating that the bank
lending channel of monetary policy was not operating effectively during the global financial crisis.
15. Since small businesses are more dependent on bank loans than large firms, monetary policy changes
that impact the availability of credit will disproportionately affect small businesses more than large
firms.
16. There are a couple reasons why this might be true. First, bank regulations in the United States have
eased, making it easier for banks to raise funds through various sources which were cumbersome under
Regulation Q. The implication is that the Fed has less control over the behavior of banks in response
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to policy changes because of the change in regulations. In addition, there has been a worldwide decline
in the traditional bank lending business, meaning the sheer size of bank lending is lower, making this
channel less potent.
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Mishkin • The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Tenth Edition
17. This would lower the net worth of firms, and lead to increased adverse selection and moral hazard,
ultimately resulting in lower investment. This is precisely what happened as a result of the global
financial crisis.
18. It would make it more difficult for the central bank to stimulate the economy. The credit view indicates
that adverse selection and moral hazard play an important part in affecting investment behavior and
ultimately the economy. However, during downturns, asymmetric information problems increase,
meaning that monetary policy must be more powerful to offset the contractionary effects of increases
in adverse selection and moral hazard.
19. During the Great Depression, the fall in the price level led to a significant decrease in consumer wealth
and a sharp decline in consumption. The decline in prices led to an increase in real debt of more than
20%, and overall, the effect on consumers was to reduce expenditure more than 50%, and housing
expenditures fell 80%.
20. The two channels are similar in that increases in real interest rates lead to lower asset prices, which
lead to lower spending on consumption and housing. The difference is in how changes in asset prices
lead to lower spending. Under the wealth effect, people are simply less willing to spend when wealth
is lower (due to lower overall lifetime resources), leading to a reduction in spending. The household
liquidity effect instead indicates a substitution effect between more liquid assets (such as cash or stocks)
and less liquid assets (such as consumer durables or housing). Thus, with lower asset values, households
use their resources to purchase safer, more liquid assets rather than consumption or housing, leading
to lower aggregate demand.
21. (a) Lower mortgage rates should lead to higher housing prices, and raise the value of housing wealth.
This should lead to a lower probability of financial distress, and raise consumer durable and housing
expenditure. (b) Even though interest rates were extremely low, if nobody could qualify for the low
mortgage rates it would not have an appreciable effect on raising the value of household’s financial
assets (i.e housing wealth). Thus, the likelihood of financial distress would remain elevated, and not
improve consumer durable and housing expenditure.
22. There are three main reasons why the credit view may prevail. First, there is evidence to indicate
that financial frictions do significantly affect employment and spending decisions. Second, there is
evidence that small firms are hurt more by tight monetary policy than large firms, which are unlikely
to be credit-constrained. Finally, asymmetric information, which is at the heart of the credit view, has
wide applicability in explaining many other behavioral and economic-related concepts, so it is likely
to play an important role in financial markets and monetary policy.
23. False. A monetary easing is associated with falling real interest rates. Even if nominal interest rates
are falling, it could be the case that expected inflation decreases more, leading to an increase in real
interest rates and a tighter monetary policy stance.
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24. The experience of Japan directly supports the four lessons of monetary policy discussed in the
chapter. First, short-term interest rates in Japan were near zero; however, due to deflation, real interest
rates remained elevated, suggesting a contractionary monetary policy stance. Secondly, if Japanese
policymakers would have paid more attention to the collapse of stock and housing markets, this could
have led to earlier and swifter action to shore up the economy. Thirdly, Japan took no steps to stimulate
the economy other than pushing short-term rates to zero. However, they could have done more to push
longer-term rates down through asset purchases and raising inflation expectations. Finally, Japan
allowed the economy to go into a deflationary period, leading to unanticipated and undesirable
fluctuations in the price level.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
25. When the transmission mechanisms are functioning normally (and predictably), policymakers can
ease monetary policy with reasonable precision, so that the aggregate demand curve shifts to the right
from AD1 to AD3 and eliminates the output gap. Under periods in which the monetary transmission
mechanisms are not functioning normally, such as during a financial crisis, some channels may not work
as effectively, or at all. As a result, for a given monetary policy prescription, the effects on aggregate
demand may be muted or nonexistent. In this case, aggregate demand may only shift to the right to AD2
and an output gap may still remain at Y2. This illustrates the limitations of monetary policy to
stabilize the output gap in such situations.
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