Download USD strength hits a roadblock

USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Mid-quarter FX update
USD strength hits a roadblock
DBS Group Research
3 February 2017
Asia
Fundamentals favor USD as the strongest G3 currency
But Trump’s protectionist language is holding it back
USD may correct further before appreciating again
CNY
Moving with DXY
HKD
Monitoring liquidity
TWD
Upside surprise
KRW
Downgraded
SGD
Neutral policy remains
MYR
Vigilant against speculation
THB
Broad-based recovery
IDR
Rating upgrade looms
PHP
Debt rating warning
VNDStable
INRResilient
USD
Fed hikes vs protectionism
JPY
Hopeful
EUR
QE stays
GBP
Article 50 looms
AUD
Slow and patient
Profit-taking in the USD in early 2017 after strong Trump rally in Nov-Dec 2016
6
MAJOR CURRENCIES
5.2
5
BRICS
EMERGING ASIAN CURRENCIES
5.0
4.1
4.1
4
3.3
3
3.0
2.6
2.4
2.3
2
3.6
2.4
2.0
0.9
1
2.1
1.3
0.7
0.8
0.7
-3
-0.3
PHP
-2
0.0
HKD
0
-1
% change vs USD,
* USD is performance of DXY index
1 Feb 2017 vs 31 Dec 2016
-2.5
VND
IDR
MYR
THB
SGD
TWD
KRW
INR
CNY
ZAR
RUB
BRL
USD
EUR
GBP
CAD
JPY
NZD
AUD
-4
Philip Wee • (65) 6878-4033 • [email protected]
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Currency forecasts
EUR /usd
usd/ JPY
usd/ CNY
usd/ HKD
usd/ TWD
usd/ KRW
usd/ SGD
usd/ MYR
usd/ THB
usd/ IDR
usd/ PHP
usd/ INR
usd/ VND
AUD /usd
GBP /usd
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1.0758
1.08
1.08
1.07
1.07
Consensus
Forwards
1.04
1.08
1.03
1.08
1.05
1.09
1.05
1.10
113.23
111
113
114
116
Consensus
Forwards
115
113
118
112
118
112
117
111
6.8706
6.93
7.02
7.11
7.19
Consensus
NDF
7.00
6.91
7.09
6.99
7.13
7.05
7.16
7.11
7.7597
7.78
7.78
7.78
7.78
Consensus
Forwards
7.76
7.75
7.76
7.75
7.76
7.75
7.76
7.75
31.079
32.2
32.4
32.5
32.7
Consensus
NDF
32.5
31.1
32.8
31.0
32.9
30.9
33.0
30.8
1143
1199
1201
1204
1206
Consensus
NDF
1200
1153
1211
1152
1220
1150
1220
1148
1.4108
1.44
1.45
1.46
1.48
Consensus
Forwards
1.45
1.41
1.47
1.41
1.47
1.41
1.47
1.41
4.4220
4.46
4.56
4.67
4.78
Consensus
NDF
4.50
4.43
4.55
4.45
4.52
4.48
4.54
4.50
35.049
36.3
36.5
36.6
36.8
Consensus
Off fwd
36.0
35.1
36.2
35.1
36.3
35.1
36.4
35.2
13350
13339
13518
13697
13876
Consensus
NDF
13600
13466
13740
13640
13800
13816
13826
14022
49.759
49.8
50.2
50.7
51.1
Consensus
NDF
50.2
49.6
50.6
50.1
50.8
50.4
50.5
50.6
67.370
69.6
70.5
71.4
72.4
Consensus
NDF
68.5
67.7
68.9
68.5
69.0
69.2
69.0
69.9
22640
22782
22782
22782
22782
Consensus
Forwards
22882
22720
23000
22856
23000
23004
23200
23185
0.7655
0.71
0.70
0.70
0.69
Consensus
Forwards
0.73
0.76
0.72
0.76
0.72
0.75
0.72
0.75
1.2520
1.23
1.20
1.17
1.14
Consensus
Forwards
1.21
1.27
1.21
1.27
1.22
1.27
1.23
1.28
DBS forecasts in red. Consensus and forwards from Bloomberg as at 1 Feb 2017
2
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Fed believes it is time to start normalizing rates
Fed's rate hike cycle is gradual vs past experiences
% YoY
6
5
Fed's 2-2.5%
inflation target
4
Ave hourly
earnings
3
2
1
CPI
inflation
Core CPI
0
-1
-2
-3
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Jan-07
Fed Funds Rate, % pa
Feb-07
7
Mar-07
1999-00
Apr-07
6
May-071994-95
2004-06
Jun-07
Jul-07
5
Aug-07
Sep-07
4
Oct-07
Nov-07
3
Dec-07
Jan-08
2
Feb-08
Mar-08
1
Apr-08
2015-19
X-axis: number of months from 1st hike
May-08
0
Jun-08
0
12
24
36
48
Jul-08
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Fed hike expectations vs Trump protectionism fears
Our view has not changed. We consider the USD’s depreciation since the
start of 2017 a correction from the (perhaps overly-strong) Trump rally in
Nov-Dec 2016. The USD will eventually resume its appreciation when the
Fed steps up th epace of rate hikes this year. Previously it hiked once in in
2015 and once in 2016. The Fed’s dot plot continues to paint a monetary
policy normalization process that extends into 2019.
We expect four Fed hikes this year. Officials signalled three rate increases
for 2017 at the FOMC meeting in Dec 2016. It also kept the door open for
more hikes if President Donald Trump delivers on his pledge to boost the
US economy with tax cuts, more fiscal spending and deregulation. Close
attention will be paid to Trump’s budget proposals scheduled for 6 Feb.
The Fed reckons that for every increase in fiscal spending by 1% of GDP,
rates can rise by an additional 50bps.
The importance of Fed hikes to the USD’s outlook is best reflected by the
high correlations that EUR/USD and USD/JPY have with their respective
10Y bond yield spreads against their US counterpart.
Lower EUR/USD needs more Fed hikes, steady ECB
Higher USD/JPY
Latest needs more Fed hikes, steady BOJ
% pa
% pa
↑ stronger EUR
-1.40
US presidential
election
-1.50
Trump's
inauguration
-1.60
-1.70
-1.80
-1.90
-2.00
EU-US
10Y bond
spread
EUR/USD
(right)
(left)
-2.10
Trump's
inauguration
120
1-Jun-16
2-Jun-16
3-Jun-16
USD/JPY
2.20
6-Jun-16
(right)
2.10
7-Jun-16
8-Jun-16
2.00
9-Jun-16
1.90
10-Jun-16
1.80
13-Jun-16
US-JP 10Y
14-Jun-16
bond spread
1.70
(left)
15-Jun-16
1.60
16-Jun-16
1.50
17-Jun-16
Sep-16
Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17
20-Jun-16
115
1.14
2.60
1.13
2.50
1.12
2.40
1.11
2.30
1.10
1.09
1.08
1.07
1.06
-2.20
1.05
-2.30
1.04
-2.40
Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17
1.03
↑ stronger USD
US presidential
election
110
105
100
95
3
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
EU stocks came up from behind US equities
Indexed: 8 Nov 2016=100
Nikkei 225 Latest
rise and fell with USD/JPY
↑ stronger EUR
1.14
110
Indexed: 8 Nov 2016=100
(left)
1.12
106
1.10
104
S&P500
1.08
(left)
102
EUR/USD
100
1.06
(right)
1.04
98
Trump's
inauguration
US presidential
election
96
Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17
1.02
120
(left)
MSCI Euro
108
↑ stronger USD
Nikkei 225
115
110
1-Jun-16
2-Jun-16 USD/JPY
3-Jun-16 (right)
105
6-Jun-16
7-Jun-16
8-Jun-16
S&P500
100
9-Jun-16
(left)
10-Jun-16
13-Jun-16
95
14-Jun-16
15-Jun-16
US presidential
Trump's
16-Jun-16
election
inauguration
90
17-Jun-16
Sep-1620-Jun-16
Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17
115
110
105
100
95
Even so, two hurdles have emerged to challenge USD bulls in early 2017.
First, the global recovery turned out to be broader-than-expected. As
the growth/inflation outlook improved in Europe and Japan, their equity markets started to play catch up with the US. EUR/USD regained its
composure and recovered when EU equities overtook their US peers on
an indexed basis. Japanese stocks, on the other hand, are still linked to
Abenomics and needed a weaker JPY to keep rising. While encouraged
by the better outlook, central banks in the Eurozone and Japan did not to
abandon their loose monetary policy stance.
Second, while fundamentals favored the greenback on a relative basis,
USD bulls ran up against a wall of trade protectionism from the Trump
administration. Soon after his inauguration, Trump cancelled the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) in Asia, sought to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and was last looking to scrap the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with Europe. Trump
cheered Brexit which reflected his administration’s preference for bilateral trade deals that favor the US.
Key events in 1H 2017
Date
Event
Feb 6
Feb 12
Feb 15
President Trump presents budget proposals
German presidential election
Fed Chair Yellen's congressional testimonies
Fed hikes vs Trump's protectionism
DXY Index
104
103
Fed hike
102
Trump's
inauguration
101
Mar 15
Mar 15
Mar 31
FOMC meeting
Netherlands general election
Article 50 & Brexit
Apr mid
Apr 23
US Treasury Department Currency Report
French presidential elections
98
May 26
G7 Summit
96
Jun 11
Jun 14
French legislative elections
FOMC meeting
100
99
Trump wins
US elections
97
95
94
Sep-16
Cancelled TTP & TTIP
Renegotiate NAFTA
Mexico wall
FX manipulation:
CNY, JPY, EUR
USD excessively strong
Fed signals Dec hike
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
4
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
America's top 10 bilateral trade deficits
Current account balances
Jan-Nov16 total, USD bn
Actual & projected 2016 balances, % of GDP
350
IE: Ireland
DE: Germany
CN: China
300
8
JP: Japan
MX: Mexico
KR: S Korea
3% of GDP criteria
to qualify as a
currency manipulator
GE: Germany
250
6
JP: Japan
IT: Italy
CN: China
IE: Ireland
VN: Vietnam
200
MY: Malaysia
4
VN: Vietnam
KR: S Korea
IT: Italy
150
IN: India
2
IN: India
USD 20bn criteria to qualify
as currency manipulator
100
Legend
10
Legend
MY: Malaysia
MX: Mexico
0
-2
50
-4
0
CN
JP
GE
MX
IE
VN
KR
IT
IN
MY
IE
DE
KR
JP
IT
CN
MY
VN
IN
MX
The risk of America labelling more countries, not just China, as currency
manipulators is no longer negligible. The Trump administration criticized
China, Japan and Germany for unfair trade advantages via weaker exchange rates from their loose monetary policies. US relations with Mexico
have also deteriorated over the wall that Trump has pledged to build at
the border. These four countries have one thing in common – America’s
top four bilateral trade deficits are with them.
Hence, the Trump administration is unlikely to tolerate a stronger USD
ahead of the US Treasury Department Currency Report scheduled for midApril. Japanese corporates see US’s protectionist stance limiting USD/JPY’s
upside to 120-125. Eurozone is, meanwhile, vigilant against key elections
in the Netherlands, France and Germany leading to more Euroscepticism.
The last thing the EU needed was Trump’s complaint against the EUR’s
undervaluation adding to break-up risks.
With its key components (EUR and JPY) reluctant to depreciate sharply, it
will be hard for the DXY to rally strongly. Given its tightened relationship
with the DXY, USD/CNY is unlikely to rise above 7.00 anytime soon either.
Real effective exchange rate of EUR
USD/CNY tightened its correlation with DXY Index
Base year 2010=100
DXY (USD) Index
120
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
Jan-16
+2 std dev
115
110
+1 std dev
105
Ave
100
95
90
-1 std dev
85
80
REER
EUR
-2 std dev
REER is from Bank of International Settlements
94 95 96 98 99 00 02 03 04 06 07 08 10 11 12 14 15 16
USD/CNY
7.00
6.95
6.90
6.85
6.80
6.75
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
6.70
6.65
6.60
6.55
6.50
6.45
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
5
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Asia ex Japan currencies since US presidential election
USD vs AXJ currencies since US presidential elections
Y-axis: sensitivity to DXY Index
% ch in USD vs AXJ, 2 Feb 2017 vs 8 Nov 2016
7
1.25
↑ stronger USD
6
1.00
5
KRW
MYR
0.75
4
SGD
3
THB
0.50
0.25
2
TWD
CNY
VND
PHP
1
IDR
0
INR
0.00
0.25
X-axis: std dev
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
-1
-2
DXY
EUR
JPY
GBP
AUD
CNY
TWD
KRW
SGD
MYR
MYR PHP
THB IDR DXY CNY SGD VND INR KRW THB TWD
AXJ currencies after the US presidential elections
Overall, Asia ex Japan (AXJ) currencies weathered the post-US election
headwinds from the global USD fairly well. The DXY Index is our reference for the global USD below.
Currencies of high growth economies – PHP, IDR, VND and INR – were
notably resilient when DXY rallied strongly in Nov-Dec 2016. They were,
however, less willing to appreciate when DXY retreated in early 2017.
These are pro-investment Asian countries that promote policies to enhance the attractiveness of their domestic-led economies. Indonesia is a
good example where we expect a debt rating upgrade. The one exception is the Philippines where risks to its debt rating have surfaced.
KRW and MYR were the most volatile AXJ currencies with performances
matching the DXY. Both KRW and MYR fell most in the region when DXY
was strong, and recovered very differently when DXY was weak. The KRW
recouped most of its losses while the MYR held on to most of them. While
Malaysia has been vigilant against speculation against its currency, Korea
is worried that America may name it a currency manipulator.
TWD and the THB stood out as the only currencies that appreciated back
to pre-election levels. Taiwan was the only Asian country that experienced
a recession, and is currently benefitting from the cyclical global export recovery. Thailand is also expecting a broad-based recovery. Both countries
have strong international liquidity positions.
Sources:
All data are sourced from
CEIC, Bloomberg, Reuters
and government agencies.
Transformations and forecasts are from DBS Group
Research and Bloomberg
consensus
Even so, there is little room for complacency. Financial markets have been
fairly sanguine about the Trump between his election victory and his inauguration, keeping focus on his policies to stimulate the US economy.
The rotation out of bonds into equities reflected optimism in America
emerging from its crisis, and the Fed moving towards normalize monetary
policy in a meaningful way.
This optimism is predicated on the market’s assumption that Trump’s protectionist ways would only increase trade tensions and not lead to trade
wars. Unfortunately, markets have not drawn comfort from the cancellation of trade pacts and accusations of currency manipulations after
Trump’s inauguration. Markets are no longer sure if Trump would not
name China a currency manipulator and spark a trade war.
6
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
US dollar
USD’s uptrend is still intact, underpinned by expectations of Fed hikes and fiscal stimulus
• The DXY (USD) Index broke above its two-year
range between 93 and 100 during the Trump rally
in Nov-Dec 2016. The subsequent fall from its high
of 103 to below 100 in early 2017 was triggered by
protectionism worries after his inauguration.
DXY (USD) Index – flatter climb
110
105
DBSf
Consensus
CNY
deval
ECB QE
100
• Yet, this is still considered a correction in the USD’s
medium-term uptrend. While growth and inflation
also improved in the Eurozone, UK and Japan, their
central banks have resisted calls to roll back their
loose monetary policies. None of them intend to
join the Fed in hiking rates this year.
95
• The USD’s continued rally hinges strongly on the
Fed moving from “one hike a year” in 2015-16 to
more hikes in 2017. The Fed’s projection for three
hikes this year did not factor in Trump’s policies.
The Fed reckoned that if fiscal spending increased
by 1% of GDP, rates could rise by another 50bps. US
President Donald Trump is scheduled to present his
budget proposals on the first Monday of Feb.
80
• There is one main risk to this outlook. Trump’s protectionist policies must not escalate trade tensions
into trade wars.
110
Fed
hikes
105
100
Projected
trading range
95
Trump
victory
90
Brexit
BOJ
QQE2
BOJ
QQE1
85
90
85
80
Fed
75
75
12
13
DBS
Consensus
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
99.64
98.9
100.2
99.4
103.1
99.8
103.9
100.2
102.8
Projected trading band
Ceiling
103.75
103.8
104.2
104.6
Floor
94.147
94.1
94.6
95.0
Slope
1.7% depreciation a year for USD
Width
5.1% around mid
105.0
95.4
Japanese yen
USD/JPY has retreated from the top of our projected
trading band after a strong rally in Nov-Dec
• Japan was a major beneficiary of the Trump rally
in Nov-Dec 2016. USD/JPY surged 17.3% within a
short span of six weeks, from its 101.15 low on 9
Nov to a high of 118.66 on 15 Dec. The weak JPY
propelled the Nikkei 225 higher by more than 20%
during the comparable period.
• The 10Y Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield
turned positive from mid-Nov after staying below
0% for 8-9 months. While many attributed this to
the Trump rally lifting global bond yields, note that
Japan’s headline inflation has also returned to positive territory since Oct16.
• This, however, does not imply that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is about to declare victory on achieving
its goal to return inflation to 2%. Core inflation,
which excludes food and energy, has remained
subdued at 0-0.2% since Aug16. According to a Reuters polls in January, nearly two-thirds of Japan’s
corporates do not intend to raise wages this year.
• Finally, Japan Inc believes that USD/JPY’s upside
will be limited to 120-125 after US President Donald Trump threatened to slap tariffs on Toyota cars
built in Mexico.
USD/JPY – correcting from top of rising channel
130
CNY deval
ECB QE
Fed hikes DBSf
Consensus
130
125
120
120
115
BOJ QQE2
110
110
Fed taper
100
105
Brexit
Trump
victory
BOJ QQE1
90
100
95
90
85
80
80
Projected
trading range
75
70
70
12
DBS
Consensus
13
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
113.23
111
115
113
118
114
118
116
117
Projected trading band
Ceiling
118.69
118
120
121
Floor
102.31
103
105
106
Slope
5.0% depreciation a year for JPY
Width
7.8% around mid
122
107
7
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Euro
EUR/USD to eventually reflect a better US outlook vs
the Eurozone
• EUR/USD is expected to eventually trade below its
two-year range between 1.05 and 1.15. We expect
the Fed to deliver four rate hikes this year, which
will be a significant departure from its “one hike
per year” pace seen in 2015 and 2016. The European Central Bank (ECB), on the other hand, will
keep its quantitative easing (QE) program running
till the end of 2017.
• EUR/USD recovered some of its post-Trump losses in
January as the growth/inflation outlook in the Eurozone also improved. Germany, where inflation is
higher than the bloc, has started to call on the European Central Bank (ECB) to roll back on its loose
monetary policy.
• The ECB is unlikely to deviate from its plan to keep
its quantitative easing (QE) program running till
end-2017. It has dismissed the recent rise in headline inflation as supply-led, driven mostly by oil
prices. Underlying core inflation has remained subdued at/below 1% YoY since 4Q13. On the economy, the ECB remains vigilant against political risks,
from Brexit to the elections in Europe this year, as
well as protectionist policies coming out of the US.
EUR/USD – wide range with gradual downside bias
Fed
taper
1.40
1.40
1.35
1.35
1.30
BOJ
QQE1
1.25
1.30
BOJ
QQE2
1.25
1.20
DBSf
Consensus
Brexit
1.15
1.20
1.15
Projected
trading range
Trump
victory
1.10
1.10
1.05
1.05
ECB
QE
1.00
12
13
DBS
Consensus
14
CNY
deval
15
Fed hike
16
1.00
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1.0767
1.08
1.04
1.08
1.03
1.07
1.05
1.07
1.05
Projected trading band
Ceiling
1.1401
1.14
1.14
1.13
Floor
1.0205
1.02
1.02
1.01
Slope
-1.3% depreciation a year for EUR
Width
5.9% around mid
1.13
1.01
British pound
GBP/USD remains a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” on
the UK eventually triggering Article 50
• GBP/USD has been stable within 1.20-1.28 after the
flash crash on 7 Oct. The underlying bearish bias for
GBP is, however, intact and subtly reflected by the
“lower highs” and “lower lows” of the range.
• The ups and downs within this boundary echoed
the market’s hopes for UK to avoid leaving the European Union (EU) and its fears for a hard Brexit.
The swings also reflected the struggle to balance
the upside surprises in post-referendum UK data
and the potential medium-term drag on the economy from corporates and banks leaving the UK.
GBP/USD – bumpy road towards Article 50
1.80
1.80
1.70
Fed
taper
BOJ
QQE2
1.60
1.70
CNY
deval
Fed
hike
1.60
Brexit
1.50
ECB QE
BOJ
QQE1
1.40
Fed
DBSf
Consensus
1.30
1.50
1.40
1.30
Projected
trading range
1.20
1.20
Trump
victory
• The UK Supreme Court’s ruling on 24 Jan for parliament to vote on Article 50 is not expected to
prevent Brexit from happening. Parliament could,
however, table amendments and push out PM
May’s deadline to trigger Article 50 by end-March.
1.10
• As with many major currencies, Brexit may be a
“buy the rumour, sell the fact” play for GBP. The
market is likely to resume selling GBP when it sees
the UK government moving closer towards triggering Article 50. Once invoked, GBP/USD is likely
to follow-through with another sell-off before it
starts to stabilize and consolidate into a range.
DBS
Consensus
1.10
1.00
1.00
13
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1.2652
1.23
1.21
1.20
1.21
1.17
1.22
1.14
1.23
Projected trading band
Ceiling
1.3301
1.31
1.28
1.25
Floor
1.1571
1.14
1.11
1.08
Slope
-9.0% depreciation a year for GBP
Width
7.9% around mid
1.22
1.05
8
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Chinese yuan
USD/CNY has been fluctuating with the global USD
since Aug 2016
• USD/CNY peaked at 6.9628 on 3 Jan, which was its
highest close since May 2008, before it corrected to
the mid-point of our projected trading range.
• To counter CNY depreciation pressures from outflows at the start of the year, China restricted cross
border lending and transfer of funds by banks and
corporates, limited the size and nature of foreign
direct investment by Chinese companies and restricted the usage of USD by Chinese individuals.
USD/CNY – projected trading band intact
7.20
7.20
Projected
trading range
7.10
7.10
7.00
7.00
Trump victory
6.90
6.80
6.90
6.80
Brexit
DBSf
Consensus
6.70
6.70
6.60
6.60
CNY deval
6.50
6.50
Fed hike
6.40
• Apart from the above measures to discourage CNY
depreciation, the fall in USD/CNY was also in line
with the retreat in the DXY (USD) Index in January.
In fact, USD/CNY has been highly correlated with
the DXY since Aug 2016. Hence, USD/CNY is still
likely to trend higher with the global USD on the
Fed hikes coming this year.
6.30
• As for US President Donald Trump’s threat to label
China a currency manipulator, this is unlikely to materialize in the next US Treasury Department (USTD)
currency report scheduled for mid-April. China currently fulfills only one of the three measures on
manipulation. The USTD will need to amend the
criteria before it can label China.
DBS
Consensus
BOJ
QQE1
6.20
6.30
ECB QE
6.20
BOJ QQE2
6.10
6.10
Fed taper
6.00
13
6.40
6.00
14
15
16
17
26-Jan
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
6.8807
6.93
7.00
7.02
7.10
7.11
7.13
7.19
7.15
Projected trading band
Ceiling
6.9933
7.06
7.15
7.23
Floor
6.7350
6.80
6.89
6.98
Slope
5.1% depreciation a year for CNY
Width
1.9% around mid
7.32
7.07
Hong Kong dollar
USD/HKD may lift off the floor of its 7.75-7.85 band on
more than one US rate hike this year
• The year 2017 started with the same scare over the
weak CNY the same month a year ago. The overnight CNH Hibor spiked to 60% and revisited the
highs seen in Jan 2016. China was also reining in
the CNY’s depreciation then.
• The panic was, however, considerably less compared to last year. USD/HKD did not spike above
the mid-point of its 7.75-7.85 convertibility band.
USD/CNH also traded at a discount and not a premium to USD/CNY.
• Nonetheless, the weak CNY outlook has shrunk the
CNY deposits in Hong Kong by CNY 304bn to CNY
547bn in 2016. This was twice the CNY 152bn fall
seen in 2015.
• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has
singled liquidity as its top worry in 2017. Expectation for the Fed to step up the pace of rate hikes
this year could result in a more volatile investment environment. HKMA has already warned
the government to expect lesser returns from the
Exchange Fund. Hence, the scope for USD/HKD to
deviate from the floor of its convertibility can no
longer be discounted.
USD/HKD – off the low of its convertibility band
7.90
7.90
Projected
trading range
7.85
7.85
US loses
AAA
DBSf
Consensus
7.80
ECB
QE
7.75
BOJ
QQE1
CNY
deval
7.80
Brexit
Fed
taper
BOJ
QQE2
Fed
hike
Trump
14
15
16
17
7.70
7.75
7.70
11
DBS
Consensus
12
13
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
7.7596
7.78
7.76
7.78
7.76
7.78
7.76
7.78
7.76
Projected trading band
Ceiling
7.8000
7.80
7.80
7.80
Floor
7.7500
7.75
7.75
7.75
Slope
0.0% depreciation a year for HKD
Width
0.3% around mid
7.80
7.75
9
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Taiwan dollar
Taiwan’s improving cyclical fundamentals are keeping
USD/TWD in the lower half of its rising price channel
• USD/TWD was the only non-pegged Asia ex Japan
exchange rate that stayed mostly within the lowest quartile of its ascending price channel during
the Nov-Dec Trump rally. This was attributed to an
export-led turnaround in the economy in 2H16.
• Expectations for the central bank (CBC) to lower
rates have evaporated. Real GDP growth turned
positive in 2Q16 after three consecutive quarters of
negative growth. Since then, growth picked up to
2.58% YoY in 4Q16 on the back of robust exports.
• That said, the CBC is unlikely to follow US rates
higher either. Monetary policy will remain accommodative to augment the government’s stimulus to
boost domestic demand. We expect GDP growth to
improve to 2.1% in 2017 from 1.4% last year.
USD/TWD – testing bottom of channel
35
35
Fed
hike
CNY
deval
34
Projected
trading range
33
DBSf
Consensus
34
33
ECB
QE
32
32
BOJ
QQE1
31
Trump
victory
Brexit
30
30
BOJ
QQE2
29
31
29
Fed
taper
28
28
13
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
31.274
32.2
32.5
32.4
32.8
32.5
32.9
32.7
33.0
• Until then, the CBC is not too concerned about CPI
inflation which has remained below 2% YoY since
Apr16. We see inflation averaging 1% this year.
DBS
Consensus
• Overall, USD/TWD will firm this year from Fed hikes
(we see four increases this year) and rate inaction
by the CBC, but the rise will be tempered by a
broader recovery in the Taiwan economy.
Projected trading band
Ceiling
32.850
32.9
33.1
33.3
Floor
31.347
31.4
31.6
31.8
Slope
1.9% depreciation a year for TWD
Width
2.4% around mid
33.4
31.9
Korean won
Fed hike expectations to keep USD/KRW firm in the
upper half of its ascending price channel
• Korea is wary that a Fed hike in March may increase
currency volatility. Since Sep 2016, when the Fed
started to prepare global markets for a hike last
Dec, the correlation between USD/KRW and the
DXY (USD) Index has tightened considerably.
• Korea is not expected to follow America in raising
rates this year. The Bank of Korea (BOK), on 13 Jan,
downgraded its 2017 growth outlook to 2.5% from
the 2.8% it forecast in Oct 2016. The new forecast
is further below the 3% potential growth rate it
projected in 2015.
• The BOK has abandoned its 2.5-3.5% target band
for CPI inflation in favour of a 2% target from 2016
to 2018. The decision was probably attributed to
the fact that CPI inflation has remained below 2%
YoY since Nov12. We expect inflation to average
1.6% in 2017 from 1.3% last year.
• Speculation has emerged for the US to name Korea
a currency manipulator. The US Treasury Department will need to modify the criteria of its monitor
list for this to happen. Korea currently fulfills only
two out of the three criteria that would tag it a
manipulator.
USD/KRW – returned into upper half of channel
Projected
trading range
1250
1250
Fed
hike
1200
1200
CNY deval
BOJ
QQE1
1150
1150
ECB
QE
1100
Trump
victory
1100
Brexit
DBSf
Consensus
US loses
AAA
1050
BOJ
QQE2
Fed
taper
1000
1050
1000
11
DBS
Consensus
12
13
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1153
1199
1200
1201
1211
1204
1220
1206
1220
Projected trading band
Ceiling
1251
1253
1255
1258
Floor
1143
1145
1147
1149
Slope
0.8% depreciation a year for KRW
Width
4.7% around mid
1260
1152
10
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Singapore dollar
USD/SGD’s uptrend remains intact within our projected trading band
• The SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)
policy shifted to a neutral stance in Apr 2016. The
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is unlikely
to return to a modest and gradual appreciation
policy at its next policy review in Apr 2017.
USD/SGD – correcting down after Trump rally
1.55
Projected
trading range
1.55
1.50
Fed
hike
1.50
1.45
• Looking back, the neutral policy lasted about 1.5
years to help the Singapore economy recover from
the 1997/98 Asian currency crisis and the 2008/09
global financial crisis. The zero appreciation policy
was in place for almost 3 years during/after the
2000/01 global tech recession.
1.40
• CPI inflation was 1.2% YoY, 1.5% and 3.2% when
the appreciation policy returned in Jul 2000, Apr
2004 and Apr 2010 respectively. Although inflation
turned positive at 0.2% YoY in Dec16 for the first
time in two years, it is still below the official 0.51.5% target range for 2017.
1.25
• Real GDP growth was more than 8% YoY and double-digit expansions were seen in non-oil domestic
exports when the neutral stance was abandoned.
Retrenchments also came off their peaks. All these
factors have yet to come together.
ECB
QE
CNY
deval
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.35
Brexit
BOJ
QQE2
1.30
Trump
victory
Neutral
SGD
DBSf
Consensus
1.20
1.30
1.25
1.20
14
15
DBS
Consensus
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1.4123
1.44
1.45
1.45
1.47
1.46
1.47
1.48
1.47
Projected trading band
Ceiling
1.4645
1.47
1.48
1.50
Floor
1.3960
1.40
1.42
1.43
Slope
3.4% depreciation a year for SGD
Width
2.4% around mid
1.51
1.44
Malaysian ringgit
USD/MYR at record high again, with global USD remaining strong on Fed hike hopes
• USD/MYR started 2017 on a high note. The peak
of 4.4980 on 4 Jan surpassed the 4.4770 level seen
during the emerging market volatility in Sep 2015. This, however, did not imply that the MYR was
weak on domestic fundamentals. Unlike 2014-15,
the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) is not
falling sharply today from a slowing economy.
USD/MYR – near record high again
5.00
DBSf
Consensus
4.80
Fed hike
4.60
4.40
4.20
4.20
4.00
• In fact, we expect Malaysia’s growth to improve to
4.5% in 2017 from 4.2% in 2016 after two years of
slowdown. The better outlook is reflected more in
the KLCI than the MYR. Like Nov-Dec 2016, Trump’s
stimulus plans and Fed hikes are expected to keep
the USD strong globally this year.
3.80
• Against this bullish USD backdrop, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will be vigilant against currency speculation this year. According to the Foreign Exchange
Administration (FEA) rules, any offshore trading of
MYR such as the non-deliverable forward (NDF) is
not recognized. One thing needs to be clear. BNM
is not targeting an exchange rate level but simply
looking to prevent excessive volatility from hurting the recovery. It has assured real investors that
liquidity will stay ample in the financial system.
2.80
3.60
4.80
4.60
Projected
trading range
4.40
5.00
Trump
victory
Brexit
Fed
taper
BOJ
QQE1
3.40
ECB QE
3.20
3.80
3.60
CNY deval
3.40
4.00
3.20
BOJ QQE2
3.00
3.00
2.80
13
DBS
Consensus
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
4.4280
4.46
4.50
4.56
4.55
4.67
4.52
4.78
4.54
Projected trading band
Ceiling
4.6032
4.67
4.78
4.88
Floor
4.1790
4.25
4.35
4.46
Slope
9.2% depreciation a year for MYR
Width
4.8% around mid
4.99
4.56
11
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Thai baht
Our projected rise for the THB this year reflects a stronger USD, not a weaker THB
• The THB was one of the three Asia ex Japan (AXJ)
currencies that appreciated in 2016. Thailand’s current account totalled 16.6% of GDP in 2016, its
strongest balance on record. Foreign reserves increased the most in the region to $172bn in 2016
from $156.5bn in the previous year.
• The Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects a broad-based
recovery in 2017 from three sectors – agriculture,
exports and government spending. We see real
GDP growth improving to 3.4% in 2017 from a projected 3.2% last year.
• Yet, we don’t expect the BOT to follow the Fed in
hiking rates this year. The central bank has pledged
to keep monetary policy accommodative to foster
a recovery at risk from global uncertainties. CPI
turned positive in Apr16 and rose to 1.55% YoY in
Jan17, just above the 1.50% policy rate and off the
floor of its official 1-4% target. We forecast inflation to average 1.5% in 2017.
• As for the exchange rate, the THB remains highly
correlated with broad USD trends in the region.
Its favourable fundamentals will, however, keep it
volatile than its peers.
USD/THB – back to mid of broad channel
38
38
Fed hike
37
37
Projected
trading range
36
36
CNY deval
35
35
Trump
victory
34
34
Brexit
33
33
DBSf
ECB QE Consensus
32
31
31
BOJ QQE2
Fed taper
30
30
US loses BOJ
QQE1
AAA
29
32
29
28
28
10
11
12
DBS
Consensus
13
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
35.119
36.3
36.0
36.5
36.2
36.6
36.3
36.8
36.4
Projected trading band
Ceiling
37.403
37.5
37.7
37.8
Floor
35.024
35.1
35.3
35.4
Slope
1.7% depreciation a year for THB
Width
3.4% around mid
38.0
35.6
Indonesian rupiah
USD/IDR to rise with global USD trends but the IDR will
be more resilient compared to regional peers
• USD/IDR has been stable in a tight 13260-13485
range after the Fed hike last December. Unlike
many of its peers in the region, USD/IDR has not
been trading in the upper, but the lower half of its
multi-year ascending price channel.
USD/IDR – in the lower half of price channel
15000
14000
13000
• DBS expects Standard & Poor’s to upgrade Indonesia’s sovereign debt rating, currently at BB+ with
a positive outlook. We remain optimistic that real
GDP growth will accelerate to 5.3% YoY in 2017.
The economy is projected to have grown 5.1% in
2016 and ended a five-year slowdown.
12000
• Exports finally turned positive in 4Q16 after eight
consecutive quarters of contraction. The 13.9% YoY
expansion in 4Q16 was also the first double-digit
gain since 3Q11. The export recovery will be positive for trade surpluses, which in turn, should help
to keep the current account deficit stable around
2% of GDP this year.
9000
• CPI inflation bottomed at 2.79% YoY in Aug16. We
see inflation rising to 4.5% in 2016 from 3.5% in
2016, from the floor towards the ceiling of its official 3-5% target range. BI is only expected to raise
rates in 2H17.
Fed hike
14000
CNY deval
Projected
trading range
ECB QE
BOJ
QQE1
15000
13000
Brexit
Trump
victory
BOJ
QQE2
11000
DBSf
Consensus
10000
12000
11000
10000
Fed taper
9000
US loses AAA
8000
11
DBS
Consensus
12
13
8000
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
13370
13339
13600
13518
13740
13697
13800
13876
13826
Projected trading band
Ceiling
14037
14152
14331
14510
Floor
12412
12526
12705
12884
Slope
5.3% depreciation a year for IDR
Width
6.4% around mid
14689
13063
12
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Philippine peso
Expectations remain firm for USD/PHP to end this year
above its psychological 50 level
• The PHP has been consolidating between 49.20 and
50.15 vs USD since mid-Nov, after its sharp depreciation in Aug-Nov. The worst level hit this year,
at 50.147 on 19 Jan, was not seen since Nov 2008.
Consensus including us expect USD/PHP to end
2017 above 50 from high but slower growth, rising
inflation and weaker budget and trade positions.
• Standard & Poor’s warned in January that the country’s sovereign debt rating was at risk from deteriorating external and fiscal positions. S&P currently
rates the country at BBB with a stable outlook.
President Duterte’s first (PHP 3.35trn) budget for
2017 is the largest given to any administration. Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez is pushing tax
reforms to stave off a rating downgrade to junk.
• The current account surplus fell to 1% of GDP in
3Q16, its narrowest since 4Q08. The trade deficit in
2016 was worse than the previous three years. Unlike other countries, exports continued to contract
amidst rising imports. CPI inflation rose to 2.5%
YoY in Dec16 from its low of 0.9% in Feb16. With
inflation moving off the floor of its official 2-4%
target, the next move in rates is up.
USD/PHP – consolidating in upper half of channel
Projected
trading range
52
52
51
51
50
50
Fed hike
49
48
DBSf
Consensus
CNY deval
47
48
47
BOJ QQE2
46
49
Trump
victory
Fed taper
Brexit
45
46
45
44
44
ECB QE
43
43
42
42
41
41
BOJ QQE1
40
40
13
14
DBS
Consensus
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
49.819
49.8
50.2
50.2
50.6
50.7
50.8
51.1
50.5
Projected trading band
Ceiling
50.445
50.7
51.1
51.5
Floor
48.689
49.0
49.4
49.8
Slope
3.3% depreciation a year for PHP
Width
1.8% around mid
52.0
50.2
Vietnam dong
USD/VND’s market rate is less anxious than its official
rate to global USD trends
• The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) lifted the official
mid-rate for USD/VND to 22,202 on 25 Jan from
22,159 at end-2016. Despite this, the market-led
USD/VND fell to 22,585 from 22,761 for the comparable period.
• This should not come as a surprise. Investors remained confident in Vietnam’s growth potential in
spite of the global geopolitical changes. Real GDP
growth is expected to be above 6% for the fourth
straight year in 2017. Vietnam stocks closed, as of
25 Jan, at their highest levels since Feb 2008.
• Exports expanded 8.6% in 2016 from 8.1% in the
previous year, its first full-year improvement since
2011. Vietnam was disappointed that US President
Donald Trump cancelled the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
• Managing inflation will be a challenge this year.
After keeping inflation below the official target of
5% for 2016, the SBV is targeting an average 4%
rate in 2017. While CPI was 4.74% YoY in Dec16,
this was up from 0.80% in Jan16. Scepticism remains strong that SBV’s desire for stable rates will
eventually give way to rate hikes.
USD/VND – stable again after Trump rally
23500
DBSf
Consensus
23000
23500
23000
Projected
trading range
Fed hike
22500
22500
Brexit
22000
Trump
victory
22000
CNY
deval
21500
21500
BOJ
QQE2
BOJ
QQE1
21000
Fed
taper
ECB
QE
21000
20500
20500
12
DBS
Consensus
13
14
15
16
17
2-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
22640
22782
22882
22782
23000
22782
23000
22782
23200
Projected trading band
Ceiling
23181
23181
23181
23181
Floor
22547
22547
22547
22547
Slope
0.0% depreciation a year for VND
Width
1.4% around mid
23181
22547
13
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Indian rupee
USD/INR could still break above its 66.2-68.7 range established since early 2016
• USD/INR has been remarkably stable between
66.2 and 68.7 since early 2016. Externally, the INR
weathered global risks such as the CNY devaluation, Brexit and Trump’s victory at the US presidential election. Domestically, the INR proved resilient
to the redemption of Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR (B) deposits and the demonetisation of 500 and 1000 rupee notes.
• The Indian stock market rallied in January in anticipation of a more tax friendly budget (on 1 Feb) to
make India a more competitive investment destination. With inflation in the lower half of the official
4±2% target, there is room for one more rate cut
by the Reserve bank of India (RBI).
• Even so, there is little room for complacency. The
INR was one of two Asia ex Japan currencies that
did not appreciate in January. The demonetisation
is, according to consensus, expected to push growth
below 7% for three straight quarters into 2Q17.
Higher oil prices and tax reforms could eventually
lead to higher inflation and larger trade deficits at
a time when the Fed is set to move from single to
multiple rate hikes this year.
USD/INR – still flat near the top
Trump
victory
80
75
Projected
trading range
DBSf
Consensus
Brexit
Fed
taper
80
75
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
Fed
hike
50
CNY
deval
ECB
QE
BOJ
QQE
55
50
45
45
US loses AAA
40
40
11
12
DBS
Consensus
13
14
15
16
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
67.475
69.6
68.5
70.5
68.9
71.4
69.0
72.4
69.0
Projected trading band
Ceiling
73.201
73.8
74.7
75.7
Floor
64.727
65.3
66.3
67.2
Slope
5.3% depreciation a year for INR
Width
6.4% around mid
76.6
68.1
Australian dollar
AUD/USD to move gradually lower with Fed hikes, but
this will be balanced by recovery prospects
• Consensus is keeping the door open for the Reserve
Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver one more rate
cut. Real GDP contracted 0.5% QoQ in 3Q16, more
than the minus 0.1% expected by consensus. CPI
inflation was 1.5% QoQ in 4Q16, below the 1.6%
consensus.
• We, however, believe that the RBA is more likely to
keep the cash rate target stable at 1.50% through
2017 instead.
• On CPI, rose for the second straight quarter from its
low of 1.0% in 2Q16. More importantly, consumer
inflation expectations increased to 4.3% YoY in
Jan16, and hit 4% for the first time since Dec15.
• On the economy, trade tells a different story. Australia posted a trade surplus in Nov16, its first since
Mar14. Exports performed strongly, helped by the
rebound in commodity prices. On the domestic
front, the jobless rate has risen again amidst slower
wage growth.
• With both headline and core inflation still below
the RBA’s 2-3% target, the RBA need not to follow
the Fed in hiking rates.
AUD/USD – mild depreciation channel
1.10
1.10
BOJ
QQE1
1.05
1.05
1.00
1.00
0.95
0.95
BOJ
QQE2
0.90
0.90
Fed
taper
0.85
Trump
victory
0.80
Projected
trading range
0.75
0.70
CNY
deval
0.60
DBS
Consensus
14
0.80
0.75
ECB
QE
0.65
13
0.85
Brexit
15
DBSf
Consensus
Fed
hike
16
0.70
0.65
0.60
17
1-Feb
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
0.7582
0.71
0.73
0.70
0.72
0.70
0.72
0.69
0.72
Projected trading band
Ceiling
0.7707
0.77
0.76
0.76
Floor
0.6575
0.65
0.65
0.64
Slope
-3.2% depreciation a year for AUD
Width
8.8% around mid
0.75
0.64
14
USD strength hits a roadblock
3 February 2017
Recent Research
IN budget: a balanced approach
2 Feb 17
SGD: sticking to neutral 7 Oct 16
Rates: global rates roundup
2 Feb 17
EZ: not taper time yet
7 Oct 16
TW: shifting into higher gear
27 Jan 17
CN: avoiding the Minsky moment
6 Oct 16
SG: time to recalibrate
26 Jan 17
IN: monetary policy committee lowers rates
4 Oct 16
EZ: ECB stays defensive
24 Jan 17
Qtrly: Economics-Markets-Strategy 4Q16
ID: looking at an S&P upgrade
19 Jan 17
CNH: SDR inclusion - right time, right place
8 Sep 16
US: pop goes the headline
18 Jan 17
IN: savings rate in need of a boost
2 Sep 16
Asia cyclical dashboard
17 Jan 17
IDR: towards further resilience
1 Sep 16
IN budget: stability over growth
12 Jan 17
SGS: on Fed watch
30 Aug 16
Rates: SGS: US-dependent
10 Jan 17
Global growth: redefining strength
26 Aug 16
IN: is oil the next headache?
13 Dec 16
TW: 5 things you need to know about the
aging population
18 Aug 16
SG: risks beneath the GDP figures
18 Aug 16
CN: the risk of keeping status quo
17 Aug 16
Qtrly: Economics-Markets-Strategy 1Q17
15 Sep 16
8 Dec 16
ID: FDI much stronger than it appears
30 Nov 16
EZ: ECB challenged by higher bond yields
16 Nov 16
15 Nov 16
CN: why falling private investment growth
is a worry
12 Aug 16
TW: 7 likely outcomes in 2017
Global: revenge of the demographic dividend
14 Nov 16
ID: tax revenues slipping
11 Aug 16
10 Aug 16
US: structural interest rate compression
2 Nov 16
SG: labour market pain
FX: mid-quarter update
1 Nov 16
IN: monetary policy in transition
8 Aug 16
SG: down but not out
1 Nov 16
FX: DM vs EM - a more balanced story
1 Aug 16
Rates: global rates roundup
31 Oct 16
Rates: Global rates roundup / chart-pack
1 Aug 16
TW: diversifying into Southeast Asia
21 Oct 16
IN: hopes high for GST
26 Jul 16
CN: cyclical bottom
19 Oct 16
JP: will the helicopters fly?
20 Jul 16
IN: assessing current account
improvement
18 Oct 16
ID rates: steepening risk
18 Jul 16
IN: more consumption-led growth
13 Jul 16
PHgov bonds: expensive (still)
11 Oct 16
FX: revisions to GBP & JPY
8 Jul 16
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The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd (the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable,
but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness
for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have
regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is
published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should
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no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use
of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof,
even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer
or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or
services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect
transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or
country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts and tables are CEIC and Bloomberg unless
otherwise specified. DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company
Registration No. 196800306E.
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