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Emergent Inference and the Future of NASA Sergio Pissanetzky [email protected] Emergent Inference Any system VISION your mom eyes SOFTWARE grab an object cameras, sensors computer program translation 100,000,000 dots of light memory memory EI in the brain EI in the computer “hi, mom” next move EI in the computer classes and objects your mom with a hat learning ROBOT new development environment Analyst-independent technolgies (AITs) ● NASA needs AIT’s for manned and unmanned space exploration. ● Autonomous robots can fly on their own or help the astronauts. ● All our current technolgies are analyst-dependent. ● Extricating the analyst from software requires understanding the analyst. ● Understanding the analist means understanding the brain. The brain AND The brain is a computer ● Cognition ● In host-guest systems: guest ● We learn ● We remember ● We know ● We decide ● Do we think? ● Do we reason? I believe that cognition is a giant memory of behaviors, stored as a hierarchy of structures. Then, an unconscious mechanism that von Helmholtz called UI and I call EI generates new structures, and again stores them as behaviors in our cognition for us to use. The brain is an organ ● Unconscious ● In host-guest systems: host ● Where is the unconscious? ● What does it do? ● Hermann von Helmholtz ● Sigmund Freud ● James Clerk Maxwell ● Carl Jung ● Douglas Hofstadter ● Pink Floyd ● David Eagleman ● Juan Roederer ● Jean Piaget ● Sergio The Great Unsolved Automation Problems of Software Engineering (GUAPs) The automation of: ● Object generation (80’s) ● Refactoring (90’s) ● Integration (2000’s) ● Self-programming (2010’s) ● Parallel Programming ● Image Recognition ● Semantic Web ● Ontologies ● Robots ● ... and counting. All these problems have exact mathematical solutions that can be found by emergent inference. BRAIN chess Jeopardy drive brain play chess play Jeopardy drive a car EMERGENT INFERENCE SOFTWARE pixels Jeopardy sensors chess sensors chess program car sensors quiz program chess controls Jeopardy controls set of programs problem of Physics car driving program car controls sequential program disorganized software emergent inference integrated program solution refactored + objects asignement recognized image Traditional software development cycle subject-matter engineer knowledge BRAIN (human analyst) emergent inference emergent inference emergent inference structure structure structure file data PROGRAM ••• ••• History of mankind HUMAN LABOR TASKS SINCE THE ADVENT OF HUMANS Source of mechanical power - heavy lifting - dig trenches - propel a boat INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION Source of Emergent Inference - program computers - control machines - creative tasks Decision making - automating systems You are here INTELLIGENCE REVOLUTION The world cost for non-automation is $60 trillion per year. Plan and Conclusions ● All current technolgies are analyst-dependent. ● Anayst-independent thecnologies are needed for space exploration, both manned or unmanned. ● EI provides the only way to extricate the analyst. ● EI should be developed in USA. ● NASA may develop EI. ● Step 1: independent verification. ● Step 2: development. ● Step 3: application in robotics. 2011 publications ● Structural Emergence in Partially Ordered Sets is the Key to Intelligence. S. Pissanetzky. Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, a subseries of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, LNAI 6830, pp. 92-101. Springer-Verlag. ● Emergence and self-organization in partially ordered sets. S. Pissanetzky. To appear in Complexity. ● Emergent inference, or how can a program become a selfprogramming AGI system? Sergio Pissanetzky. Workshop on Self-programming in AGI systems. AGI-11 conference, Google campus, Mountain View, CA. August 3-6, 2011. [email protected] www.SciControls.com