Download Coordination in a Supply Chain

第七單元(2) ：Supply Chain Coordination & Information Integration
Supply Chain Coordination &
Information Integration
郭瑞祥教授
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－非商業性－相同方式分享」台灣3.0版授權釋出】
1
Outline
► Part I: Coordination in a supply chain
► Part II: Information integration
2
Coordination in a Supply Chain
- The Bullwhip Effect -
長鞭效應(Bullwhip Effect)
CoolCLIPS網站
Codigofonte.net網站
IC設備與
零件業
存
貨
3
Microsoft。
Codigofonte.net網站
電腦周邊業
IC製造業
Microsoft。
電腦組裝業
配銷業
臺灣大學 郭瑞
祥老師
存
貨
Microsoft。
存
貨
Microsoft。
存
貨
Microsoft。
存
貨
Microsoft。
Increasing Variability of Orders
Retailer ‘s Orders to Manufacturer
Consumer Sales
Order
Quantity
20
20
15
15
Order
Quantity
10
5
0
5
Time
Wholesaler’s Orders to Manufacturer
Order
Quantity
4
10
0
Manufacturer’s Orders to Supplier
20
20
15
15
10
Order 10
Quantity
5
5
0
0
Time
Time
Time
The Main Factors of Bullwhip Effect
► Demand forecasting
► Lead time
Microsoft。
► Batch ordering
► Price fluctuating
► Shortage gaming
5
Demand Forecasting
► Each player in supply chain forecasts its demand by its
order which is more variable than the customer demand.
► When placing order, inventory policies such as (S,s) or
(R,Q), lead time, and safety stock policy further distort
the demand information.
► Contributing factors
– No visibility of end demand
– Multiple forecasts
6
Solutions
►
►
►
►
Sharing of point-of-sale data
Implementing collaborative forecasting and planning
Designing single stage of control of replenishment (VMI)
Large retailers usually share their future order forecast by
weighted binding promises, e.g., Dell shares 12-week forecast
with the first 4-week forecast 100% confirm and next 8-week
forecast 75% confirm.
► It’s more important to share future demand forecast than to
share the past customer demands.
► Aggregate demand usually decreases the variability of the
forecast.
7
Lead Time
► Lead time is used to estimate the safety stock and
reorder point. So when lead time increases, the
variability in order quantities increases.
► Lead time usually has a trade-off relationship with
inventory. However, more accurate demand forecast
and instant information sharing could simultaneously
decrease both.
8
Lead Time Reduction Solutions
► Order lead time: the time it takes to produce and ship the
item.
► Information lead time: the time it takes to process an order.
► Order lead time can be reduced through cross-docking.
► Information lead time can be reduced through the use of
electronic data interchange (EDI), E-market, or other tools.
9
Batch Ordering
► For economic reason, orders are usually placed by
a large quantity, called batch size, especially when
(S,s) or (R,Q) policy is adopted.
► Transportation strategies (full truckload quantities)
add up to the reasons of batch ordering.
► Contributing factors
– High order cost
– Full truck load economies
10
Solutions
► EDI & computer-assisted ordering (CAO)
► Discounted on assorted truckload, consolidated by 3rd
party logistics
► Regular delivery appointment
► Volume and not lot size discounts
11
Price Fluctuation
► Discount and promotion policies add up to the reasons
of demand variability.
► Customers and retailers usually stock up when prices
are ready to increase.
► Contributing factors
– High-low pricing leads to forward buy
– Delivery and purchase are not synchronized
12
Solutions
Reduce both the frequency and the level of wholesale
price discounting
► Establishing an EDLP policy
► Use CAO (computer-assisted ordering) or CRP (continuous
replenishment program) to acknowledge the company the
excessive costs of forward buying
► Implement ABC (activity-base costing) system
► Adopt limited purchase quantities
► Adopt scan based promotions
13
Shortage Gaming
► When retailers and distributors suspect that a product will
be in short supply, and therefore anticipate receiving
supply proportional to the amount ordered, inflated orders
will occur.
► When the period of shortage is over, the orders goes
back to their regular level.
► Contributing factors
– Proportional rationing scheme
– Ignorance of supply conditions
– Unrestricted orders & free return policy
14
Solutions
To prevent shortage situations, a supplier can
► Share capacity and inventory information
► Work with customers to place orders well in advance of the
sales season
► Charge penalty for exaggerated gaming
► Allocate based on past sales.
► Build trust and partnership
15
A Framework for Supply Chain Coordination
Causes of
Bullwhip
Information Sharing
》Vendor-managed
inventory (VMI)
》Discount for information
sharing
》Consumer direct
》Lead-time reduction
》Echelon-based
inventory control
Demand Forecast
Update
》Understanding system
dynamics
》Use point-of-sale (POS) data
》Electronic data interchange
(EDI)
》Internet
》Computer-assisted ordering
(CAO)
》EDI
》Internet ordering
Order Batching
》Discount for truckload
assortment
》Delivery appointments
》Consolidation
》Logistics Outsourcing
》Reduction in fixed
cost of ordering by EDI
or electronic
commerce
》CAO
Price Fluctuations
》Continuous
replenishment program
(CRP)
》Everyday low cost (EDLC)
》Everyday low price
(EDLP)
》Activity-based
costing (ABC)
Shortage Gaming
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》sharing sales, capacity, and
inventory data
Channel Alignment
》Allocation based on past
sales
Operational
Efficiency
Designing a Relationship with Trust
► Assess the value of the relationship
► Identify operational roles and decision rights for each
party
► Create effective contracts
► Design effective conflict resolution mechanisms
17
Outline
► Part I: Coordination in a supply chain
► Part II: Information integration
18
Information Driver
► Role in supply chain:
》 Connect
various strategy:
stages in SC
► Role
in competitive
》》
Crucial
to daily
operations in each stage
For growth
need
► Characteristics
of
information required:
》
cost reduction
》 For
Accurate
》 Accessible timely
》 Right kind
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Basic Components of Information
► Supplier information
》 Products, price,
lead time, location, order status,
► Manufacturing
information
modification,
payment
》
Products,
quantity,
location,
lead time, trade► Distribution and retailing
information
offs, cost, batch size
》
Products,
location, quantity, mode, price, stored
► Demand
information
quantity, lead time
》 Customers, price, location, quantity, forecast
20
What is e-Business?
► Business transacted over the Internet
– Is product information displayed on the Internet?
– Is negotiation over the Internet?
– Is the order placed over the Internet?
– Is the order tracked over the Internet?
– Is the order fulfilled over the Internet?
– Is payment transacted over the Internet?
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What is e-Business?
► “The business-wide integration of processes, applications
and organizational structure to create a highperformance business model in the internet economy” -R. Kalakota & M. Robinson
► “e-Business is about transforming key business
processes with networking technology” -- K&M and IBM
► “An e-Business is an organization that connects critical
business systems directly to their critical constituencies via
intranets, extranets and internet” -- IBM’s definition
IBM e-business in the City (no longer available)
本作品轉載自(http://www.cleverstuff.net/images/IBM-e-business-in-theCity.jpg )，瀏覽日期2012/05/18，依據著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
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Wikipedia
The e-Business Environment
Business to Consumer
Business Efficiency
►Communication
►Process Automation
►Knowledge Management
►Building Brands
►e-commerce
►Customer Service
►Relationship Marketing The INTERnet
INTRAnet
e-business
Business to Business
►Supply Chain
►Time to Market
►Communication
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EXTRAnet
The Application of Web Technology
In Three Areas : Intranet, Intranets
& Extranet
Evolution of e-Business
EDI
EIS
Distribution
Planning
Scheduling
MRP
MRP II
Payroll
HR
GL
AP
FMIS
AR
1970s
24
1980s
1990s
Source: Business Online
2000s
Evolution of e-Business
EDI
e-Commerce
EIS
BI
CRM
Distribution
Planning
APS/SCM
e-Business
Scheduling
MRP
MRP II
Payroll
HR
ERP
GL
AP
FMIS
AR
1970s
25
1980s
1990s
Source: Business Online
2000s
e-Business Architecture
Business Value
Business Strategy
e-Commerce
S
U
P
P
L
I
E
R
S
Knowledge Management
Supply
Chain
Management
Enterprise
Resource
Planning
Customer
Relationship
Management
Business Intelligent
e-Business Enabling
Web+IT Integration
Technology Value
26
Source: IBM
C
U
S
T
O
M
E
R
S
Basic Evaluation Framework
► How does business on-line impact revenues?
► How does business on-line impact costs?
– Facility (site + personnel)
– Inventory
– Transportation
– Information
► Should the e-commerce channel position itself for
efficiency or responsiveness?
► Who in the supply chain can extract most value?
► Is the value to existing players or new entrants?
27
The Computer Industry: Dell On-line
Procurement
cycles
PUSH PROCESSES
Customer Order and
Manufacturing Cycle
PULL PROCESSES
Customer
Order Arrives
28
Potential Opportunities Exploited by Dell
► Revenue opportunities
–
–
–
–
–
–
24 hour access for order placement
Direct sales
Providing customization and large selection information
Flexibility on pricing and promotion
Faster time to market
Efficient funds transfer - reduce working capital
► Revenue negatives
– Longer response time than store and no help with selection
29
Wikimedia Commons
Potential Opportunities Exploited by Dell
► Cost opportunities
–
–
–
–
–
–
Direct sales eliminating intermediary
Customer participation: Call center & catalog costs
Information sharing in supply chain
Reduce facility costs
Geographical centralization and reduced inventories
Postpone product differentiation to after order is placed
using product platforms and common components
► Outbound transportation costs increase
30
Wikimedia Commons
Opportunities
► Significant, but must be combined with component
commonality, and build to order. Must move product
customization to pull phase of supply chain and hold
inventories as common components during the push
phase
► Opportunity most significant for new, hard to
forecast products
► Complements strength of existing retail channels
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作品
授權條件
作者/來源
本作品轉載自CoolCLIPS網站
(http://dir.coolclips.com/Business/Metaphors_A_to_D/Agreement_and_Greeting/Sh
aking_Hands/business_women_shaking_hands_peop4003.html)，瀏覽日期
2012/2/17。依據著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
3
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft 服務合約及著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
3
本作品轉載自Codigofonte.net網站(http://www.codigofonte.net/galeria-deimagens/cliparts/visualizar/FABRICA1.gif)，瀏覽日期2012/2/18。依據著作權法
第46、52、65條合理使用。
3
本作品轉載自Codigofonte.net網站(http://www.codigofonte.net/galeria-deimagens/cliparts/visualizar/PREDIO2.jpg)，瀏覽日期2012/2/18。依據著作權法第
46、52、65條合理使用。
3
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft 服務合約及著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
3
臺灣大學 郭瑞祥老師
5
本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊，依據Microsoft 服務合約及著
作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
版權聲明
頁碼
授權條件
作者/來源
22
Wikipedia
本作品轉載自http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Original_IBM_Logo.png，瀏覽日
期2011/12/28。
22
IBM e-business in the City (no longer available)
本作品轉載自(http://www.cleverstuff.net/images/IBM-e-business-in-the-City.jpg )，
瀏覽日期2012/05/18，依據著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。
29, 30
33
作品
Wikimedia Commons
本作品轉載自http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dell_Logo.png，瀏覽日期
2011/12/28。