Download Population Geography

Key Issue 3: Why is
Population Increasing at
Different Rates in
Different Countries?
Demographic Transition Model
www.prb.org/pdf04/transitionsinWorldPop.pdf (check out pg
8)
The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and
death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage
of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.
The Demographic Transition

The Demographic Transition
– 1. Low growth
– 2. High growth

– 3. Moderate growth
– 4. Low growth
Population pyramids
– Age distribution
– Sex ratio

Countries in different stages of demographic
transition

Demographic transition and world population
growth
Demographic Transition Model

Stage one
– Crude birth/death rate high
– Fragile population

Stage two
– Lower death rates
– Infant mortality rate
– Natural increase high

Stage three
– Indicative of richer developed countries
– Higher standards of living/education

Stage Four
– CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =
– ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth
– Most Northern and Western Euro countries
Rapid Growth in Cape Verde
Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition
in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its
population history reflects the impacts of famines and outmigration.
Moderate Growth in Chile
Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s,
and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.
Low Growth in Denmark

Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition
since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its
population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and
few children.
Stage One
Pre-industrial
 CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate
according to natural
events and
disasters.
 Population is a
constant and young
pop.

Stage Two
Death rates
drop…
improvements in
food supply,
sanitation, etc.
 Birth rates do not
drop… causes an
imbalance so
there is a large
increase in
population.

Stage Three
 Birth
rates fall
– Access to contraception
– Increase in wages
– Urbanization
– Move away from
subsistence agriculture.
– Education of women
 Population
to level off
growth begins
Stage Four
Low birth AND low
death.
 Birth rates may drop
below replacement
levels (Japan and
Italy) which may lead
to negative
population growth.
 Large group born
during stage 2 ages…
creates a burden on
the smaller working
population.

Soooo….
A
cycle in a way from 1 to 4
 Difference=
in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are
high… in Stage 4 they are low.
 Difference=
total population of a country
is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
Dependency Ratio
A
country wants a balance between young,
working, and elderly populations… this is
called the dependency ratio.
 Most of the population should be in the
“working years.”
 Some countries have many births/children
who are dependent, others have the older
generations.
 “World Aging at Super Speed”:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/08/21/news/economy/aging-countriesmoodys/index.html?sr=fb082214superaged3pVODtopPhoto
The Demographic Transition in
England
Now Stage 4
 Historically

– Stage 1 – Low growth
until 1750
– Stage 2 – High growth
1750-1880
– Stage 3 – Moderate
growth 1880-early
1970’s
– Stage 4 – Early 1970’spresent. Long time
below the 2.1 Total
Fertility Rate needed for
replacement.
Problems with the
Demographic Transition Model
• based on European experience, assumes all
countries will progress to complete
industrialization
• many countries reducing growth rate
dramatically without increase in wealth
• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in
stage 2 or stage 3
• it is not an exact science!!!!!!!! (Possible Stage
5????)
Remember… Demographic
Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR
but also on in and out
migration!!!!