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III. Varieties of Social Explanation: An Introduction to the Philosophy By Daniel Little Causal Analysis: 1. The Meaning of Causal Claims 2. Mechanisms and Causal Laws 3. The Inductive-Regularity Criterion 4. Necessary and Sufficient Conditions 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 6. Conclusion Mi-Ae Wartenbee 1 Causal Analysis Introduction: Social Scientists are interested in establishing causal relations among social sciences, and make different sort of causal claims. The variety of causal claims: • Singular causal judgment • Generic causal relations • Causal relevance claims • Probabilistic causal claims 2 Introduction: A variety of factors function as either C or E in social analysis ■ Variables: • Individual & Collective actions • Social structures & relations • State activity • Forms of organization • System of norms & values • Cultural modes of representation • Geographic & ecological features of an environment – Why are bandits more common on the periphery of a traditional society than in the core? Variety of causal claims and variables in SS impossible to provide a coherent analysis of social causation?? But, 3 Introduction: A broad ranged of social explanation within the variants will emerge, depending on causal reasoning with certain qualifications: The causal assertions don’t depend on simple generalizations across social properties—rarely depend on a simple inductive generalization. These claims depend on an analysis of the specific causal mechanisms that connect C & E. The mechanisms (of social causal explanation) involve reference to the beliefs & wants, powers & constraints that characterize the individuals’ action → influence the social phenomenon. 4 1. The Meaning of Causal Claims What does it mean that condition C is a cause of outcome E? SS seeks: -- to identify the conditions that produced the explanandum or its distinctive features -- to discover the conditions existing prior to the event that were sufficient for the event Three Ideas involving in causal reasoning: ■ Causal Mechanism (CM): the most fundamental * C is a cause of E → a series of event Ci leading from C to E and the transition from each Ci to Ci+1 is governed by one or more laws Li (connecting C & E) ■ The Inductive Regularity (IR) * C is a cause of E → a regular association b/w C & E type events (the idea of a correlation b/w 2 or more variables) ■ The Necessary & Sufficient Condition (NSC) * C is a cause of E → C is a necessary &/or sufficient condition for the occurrence of E The central task of a causal explanation is to discern that causal mechanisms and the laws on which it depends. 5 2. Mechanisms and Causal Laws What is a causal mechanism? a series of events (connecting C & E) governed by law-like regularities that lead from the explanans to the explanandum—a chain phenomenon: given the properties of C & the laws that govern such events, C1 occurred→C2 →C3….Cn, E occurred. described the causal mechanisms linking C to E demonstrated how the occurrence of C brought to E eg) a bolt is left loose on an automobile wheel • Explanans: • Explanandum: –reconstruct to establish a finding (a loose bolt→ an accident) 6 2. Mechanisms and Causal Laws Are there causal mechanisms underlying social phenomena? Depends on availability of law like regularities Eg-a mechamism) the extension of new trolley lines into the outlying districts of a major city the quality of public schools in the city↓ • Accessible to jobs in the city • Middle class workers → living in the outlying districts exodus to the suburbs w/ resources & amenities • An effect: the emergence of a greater stratification b/w city & suburb → concentration of the poor & lack of resources for ed. in the city 7 2. Mechanisms and Causal Laws Cont’d (the new trolley lines) Depended on a series of social events → each links in this causal chain Described the mechanism connecting the new trolley to the degradation of the city school system Pointed about causal reasoning in connection w/ social phenomena: • the mechanisms that link C & E are grounded in the meaningful, intentional behavior of individuals—eg. RCT &… Social phenomena are constituted by individuals whose behavior is the result of their rational decisionmaking & non-rational psychological processes. • Cf> distinguished from natural science 8 2. Mechanisms and Causal Laws What sorts of thing have causal properties that affect social phenomena? Through the actions & beliefs of the individuals who embody it: Actions of individuals & groups Features of individual character & motive structure Properties of social structures, institutions & orgs, moral & ideological properties of groups & communities New technological opportunities New cultural development …& more 9 2-1. Eg) Causes of the Taiping Rebellion by Kuhn: an argument about the mechanisms that mediated social causation Eg) a shift in the balance of power b/w the Chinese central gov→ local elites Why did this occur? 1) Elites managed to wrestle control of local militarization from the state bureaucracy and to create effective local militias. 2) Elites managed the orgs against the Taipings. 3) Elites managed the T. because the Qing regime was administratively overextended and because Q military arrangement was not well designed to control rebellion. 4)This local militarization led to a permanent weakening of the center and an increase of local power and autonomy. 10 2-1 Cause of the Taiping Rebellion (cont’d) Analysis Two causal connections: • administrative weakness→ the creation of local militias • The creation of local militias →a further weakening of the political power of the imperial center 1) & 2) =factual claims • Established on the basis of appropriated historical research 3)=a claim about the causes of 1) & 2) • Presented a “how possible” question 4)=a claim about 1)’s causal consequences • Presented an analysis of the consequences of establishing effective local military orgs—a permanent shift in the balance of power b/w the state & local elites The strength of argument: the plausibility of the mechanisms through which these changes occurred as specified in historical narrative. 11 2. Mechanisms and Causal Laws This account of causal mechanisms is based on the idea of a law-like regularity: Causal relations derive from the laws that govern the behavior of the entities involved Hempel’s account of causal explanation: • Causal explanation is a special type of deductive nomological explanation because a certain event or (s) can be said to have caused a specified “effect” only if there are general laws connecting the former w/ the latter in such a way…that the occurrence of the effect can be deduced with the help of cases. 12 2. Mechanisms and Causal Laws Causal laws: Be deterministic: all objects without exception are governed by the law –eg) the law of gravitation Be probabilistic: Mendel’s law of inheritance—eg) both parents have one-half recessive gene (blue eyes)-25% of blue eyes offspring Are there causal laws among social phenomena? Regularities underlying social phenomena that can be called “causal”--reflect facts about individual agency. • The fact that agents are prudent and calculating about their interests produces by RCT (game theory, microeconomics, & social choice theory) • The fact that human beings conform to a loose set of psychological laws permits to draw C & E relations b/w a given social environment & a pattern of individual behavior Social causation depends on regularities that derive from the properties of individual agents. 13 2. Mechanisms and Causal Laws Implications of the findings: Social regularities are weaker and more exception-laden than natural causation. Claims about social causation are more tentative and probabilistic than claims about natural causation. RCT-regularities-provide the ground for causal relations among social phenomena. No processes of social causation that are autonomous from regularities of individual action. 14 3. The Inductive-Regularity Criterion (IRC) here, only the basics of inductive reasoning about discrete variables (Vas.) The Humean notion: causal relations consist only in patterns of regular association b/w Vas., classes of events, & the like. A pair of Vas., C & E are causally related if & only if there is a regularity conjoining events of type C & E • Inflation vs. civil unrest • A regular association b/w periods of inflation & subsequent periods of civil unrest The idea of association b/w discrete Vas. E & C can be expressed in terms of conditional probability (if & only if). Eg) Marital status → suicide rates • E: the circumstances of ♀’s suicide • C: the property of ♀’s being divorced • P(E)≠P(E/C) 15 3. The Inductive-Regularity Criterion (IRC) Eg) a social explanation that depends explicitly on an inductive method Tong’s study of collective violence in the Ming dyns.: “condition-probability” analysis Let’s look at P. 23 Findings: The most rebellions occur when the probability of surviving hardship is lowest & survival as an outlaw is greatest (1.79), and the fewest occur in the two cells in the upper right (0.12). A correlation b/w the two independent vas. & the incidence of banditry Infer that there is a causal relation b/w the probability of survival as outlaw an the occurrence of banditry 16 3. The Inductive-Regularity Criterion (IRC) The evaluation of the IRC Start with the discovery of an IR, connecting 2 or more vas. & correlations—evidence of causal relations. The IR claims that a causal relation can be reduced to facts about correlation & conditional probabilities. • Yet, two errors: false positives & false negatives: the best remedy: identifying the causal mechanisms that produce the observed regularities & mediate C & E • Forming a hypothesis about the mechanism at work in the circumstances is the best way to avoid the a spurious correlation b/w vas. 17 3. The Inductive-regularity Criterion-Conclusion The IRC is a secondary to the CMC: there is a causal relation b/w 2 vas. if & only if there is the CM connecting them. The IR is useful for identifying possible causal relations, yet needs investigation(s) of underlying causal process before concluding a causal relation exists. The IRC should be understood as a source of causal hypotheses & a method to evaluate them empirically—not as a definition of causation. 18 4. Necessary & Sufficient Conditions (NSC) Causal claims involve identifying the NSC for the occurrence of an event. A causes B if & only if: 1. A is a necessary condition for the occurrence of B; 2. A belongs to a set of conditions C that are jointly sufficient to give rise to B Yet, the account is unsatisfactory. Why? Eg) the presence of oxygen vs. the occurrence of combustion A single condition is almost never a sufficient condition for the occurrence of another event. Instead, the conjunction of a set of conditions (jointly) is normally needed to supply for a sufficient condition. 19 4. Necessary & Sufficient Conditions (NSC) Makie refines the concept of the NSC by introducing the INUS condition: An “insufficient but necessary part of a condition which is itself unnecessary but sufficient for the result”—eg) combustion vs. dry paper/ a fire vs. a short circuit There may be alternative sets of conditions, which are sufficient to bring about the event. • A is a cause of P if & only if it is a part of an INUS condition of P: • A is an INUS condition of a result P if & only if, for some X and Y, (AX or Y) is necessary and sufficient condition of P. • But, A is not a sufficient condition of P, & X is not a sufficient condition of P. 20 4. Necessary & Sufficient Conditions (NSC) The defect of the analysis of causal relations in terms of the NSC: Is tied to the fact that some causal relations are probabilities rather than deterministic Eg) Poor communications among superpowers during crisis increases the likelihood of war. • Is a probabilistic claim • Defines a causal variable (poor communication) • Asserts that this variable increases the probability of a given outcome (war) • But, cannot be translated into a claim about the NSC for war 21 4. Necessary & Sufficient Conditions (NSC) The INUS conditions holds in cases where deterministic laws govern the relations among events. In the case of social phenomenon, it is implausible to suppose that the underlying regularities are deterministic. But, there is alternative available, in the forms of the concept of causal relevance—the NSC can be generalized in terms of comparison of conditional probabilities. If C is a necessary condition for E, then the probability of E in the absence of C is zero (P(E-C)=o) If C is a sufficient condition for E, then the probability of E in the presence of C is one (P (E/C)=1) C is enhancing causal factor in P(E/C)> P(E) C is inhibiting causal factor in P(E/C<P(E) Eg 2-3) Poverty & instability in Latin America, p.28 (2-3) 22 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 1) the Case-Study Method The investigator examines the history of the event in detail to arrive at a set of causal hypotheses about its course. Eg) the Chinese Revolution—why did it occur in the a time and circumstances that it did and take the form of a radical peasant revolution rather than an urban liberal democratic movement?—a causal question The investigator’s goal--to discover circumstances in the history of the event that are causally relevant • Circumstances that had credible effects on the occurrence, timing, or character of the event The central difficulty in this type of problem is to deal with a unique series of events, all of which are antecedent to later events in the historical process. 23 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 1) the Case-Study Method The most common way to support a causal analysis— Is to provide an account of the particular causal mechanisms linking various parts of the story • The purpose of historical narrative—to establish the series of events that lead from C to E Two forms of inference to identify causal mechanisms 1. A deductive approach--establishing causal connections between social factors based on a theory of the underlying processes • • • Singular event α is followed by event β Eg.) Prices for cotton↓ Chinese peasant activism Supported by theoretical analysis of peasant political motivation, focusing on the connection between peasant economic security & political behavior 24 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 1) the Case-Study Method (cont’d) 2. An inductive approach, • justifying the claim that a caused b on the ground that events of type A are associated with events of type B • Depends on statistical correlations or on comparative analysis • The strength of the causal assertion depends on the discovery of a regular association b/w event types. 25 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 1) the Case-Study Method The construction of a causal story based on a particular case requires: 1. Detailed knowledge about the sequence of events within the large historical process 2. Credible theoretical or inductive hypotheses about various kinds of social causation • Eg) a hypothesis: the depression increased the likelihood that a revolutionary peasant movement would succeed • the hypothesis depends on several kinds of knowledge • Presuppositions: 26 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 1) the Case-Study Method Conclusion Involves the detailed study of a particular sequence of social events & processes Depends on identifying particular causal links among historical events & circumstances Requires more than the knowledge of temporal succession among the events • Needs a theoretical or inductive basis for asserting that a given historical circumstance affected the occurrence & character of a subsequent circumstances • A several forms of reasoning-comparative method & analysis of particular causal mechanisms 27 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 2) Comparative Method Defines that embodies a range of similar characteristics w/ certain salient differences What explains different outcomes in apparently similar circumstances? Eg) P.31 The investigator Identifies a small number of cases in which the phenomenon of interest occurs in varying degrees Attempts to isolate the causal processes that lead to different outcomes 28 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 2) Comparative Method (eg. P.34-5) Requires the details of the cases & an effort to develop hypotheses about the cases’ causal dynamics Looks at the details of a few cases to probe the mechanisms of change, the details of the processes, & the presence or absence of specific factors Skocpol’s definition: the overriding intent is to develop, test, & refine causal, explanatory hypotheses about events or structures integral to macro-units such as nation-states. Ragin’s: Comparativists are interested in the similarities & differences across macrosocial units. 29 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 3) Mill’s Methods (MMs) John S. Mill (System of Logic): the methods of agreement & difference Aim that identifying the cause of an event by observing variations in antecedent conditions for repeated occurrences of the event. Reason that if a given outcome is present in the 1st case & absent in the other, there must be a causal factor present in the 1st case that is lacking in the latter. 30 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 3) Mill’s Methods Discover the cause of an event P in a causal field of a range of relevant factors (A, B,C, D, E), which should be necessary & sufficient for the occurrence of P. (P.36) P: the success of a union-organizing drives and the causal factors are: • • • • • A: falling real wages B: urban setting C: skilled labor force D: authoritarian management style E: industrial company 31 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 3) Mill’s Methods Do the findings permit one to conclude that A is a sufficient condition for P? Yes, only if one can assume that (A,B,D,D,& E) is an exhaustive set of causal factors for the occurrence of event P. Otherwise, it is possible that the covariance of A & P is accidental—in the typical case, it will be an open question whether there are other as yet unidentified causal factors. If one is not sure about the exhaustiveness, one can conclude that only A out of the set (A,B,C, D,&E) is potentially necessary & sufficient cause of P, & only A, B, & E are potentially necessary conditions for P. 32 5. Forms of Causal Reasoning 3) Mill’s Methods MMs can’t handle complex & probabilistic causation: MMs are well designed only for cases where people have single conditions that are necessary and sufficient for the occurrence of the outcome MMs require demanding conditions for their application: • A complete list of relevant causal conditions • A pair of observations in which P occurs and doesn’t occur • Information about the occurrence or nonoccurrence of each other relevant conditions Yet, MMs underlie much reasoning about causation in the social science. 33 6. Conclusion The fundamental idea underlying causal reasoning in social science(s) is that of a causal mechanisms. To claim that C caused E is to claim that there is a causal mechanism leading from the occurrence of C to the occurr. of E: The concept → the basis for two other ideas about causation: • Causal judgments correspond to inductive regularities The discovery of an inductive regularities b/w variables is a reason to expect a a causal connection b/w them. • Causal judgments express claims about the NSC The occurrence of C enhances the probability of the occur. of E. The central causal process underlying social change derives from rational-intentional behavior on the part of individuals an intimate connection b/w causal & rational explanation (next chap.). 34