Download Climate Change Effects and Assessment of Adaptation Potential in

Climate Change Effects and
Assessment of Adaptation Potential
in the Russian Federation.
Julia Dobrolyubova
Expert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol
13, bld.2, 1st Volkonsky lane,
Moscow, 127473 Russia
phone/fax: +7 495 737 6448
e-mail: [email protected]
www.rusrec.ru
19-20 November 2007
Temperature growth in Russia
Temperature had
increased by 1ºC in
Russia in 1900-2004
in comparison with
global 0,74ºC
temperature growth.
Surface air temperature
changes in Russia, the
Northern Hemisphere and
the World, 1901-2004.
Source: Strategic Prediction,
Roshydromet, 2006.
Uneven Distribution of Climate Change Effects (1)
Due to its vast territory and
variety of geographical
conditions, climate change
effects have considerable
spatial and seasonal
variations in Russia.
Surface air temperature
changes in winter
and summer, 1976-2006,
°C/decade.
Source: Report on climate features
In Russia in 2006, Roshydromet, 2007.
Uneven Distribution of Climate Change Effects (2)
Mean annual amount of
precipitation is expected to
increase further, mainly due
to its increase in the cold
period. The most significant
increase is expected in the
north of Eastern Siberia (by
up to 7-9%).
.
As for mass of snow
accumulated by the end of
winter the changes
expected in 5-10 years have
trends opposite in sign in
different regions of Russia.
Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.
“Strategic prediction for the
period up to 2010-2015 of
climate change expected in
Russia and its impacts on
the sectors of the Russian
national economy”
Prepared and presented by
the Federal Service for
Hydrometeorology and
Environmental Monitoring
(Roshydromet) in 2006.
Sectors covered:
Energy Sector
Agriculture
Water management
Construction
Human health
Goals:
Climate change assessment
with due respect to variety of
climatic zones in Russia
Climate change forecast for 510 years in order to inform
policy-makers
Integration of forecasts of
climate change impact into
socio-economic development
programmes of the country
Elaboration of respond
measures, adaptation strategies
Climate Change Impacts: Extreme Events
450
400
387
361
350
300
285
254
250
200
150
195
153
163
142
206
150
175
193
311
258
220
160
100
50
0
91 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006
9
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Total number of extreme events in Russia in 1991-2006.
Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.
Climate Change Impacts: Extreme Events
35
29
30
25
20
15
15,8
11,983
9,673
10
8,81
17,8
16,7
18,5
13,247
9,652
15,7
10,145
9,505
5
19
99
20
0
0
20
0
1
20
0
2
20
0
3
19
97
19
98
19
95
19
96
19
94
19
93
19
91
19
92
0
Damages in 109 rub/year
Damages from environmental hazards in agriculture,1991-2003
Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.
Climate Change Impacts: Energy Sector
Duration of a heating
period
will
probably
decrease by 3-4 days in
Russia by 2015 on
average, which may
considerably
reduce
expenditures on heating.
At the same time due to
increase of number of hot
days in summer period
there is a high probability
of deterioration of heat
absorbing systems at
power stations as well as
increase of expenditures
on cooling.
Decrease in duration of heating period
(days) up to 2015.
Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.
Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture
Positive effects of climate change are expected in the
overall yield increase due to prolongation of period of
vegetation.
Negative effects: Although, high probabilities of the
warming-related droughts may cause yield decrease by
up to 22% of the present level for corn crops in the
Northern Caucasia, and in the Volga and Ural regions
and in the south of Western Siberia as low as 12-14% of
the present level, if no actions are taken to combat the
predicted intensification of aridity.
Climate Change Impacts: Water Management
increase
decrease
Legend: Annual runoff Winter runoff
Spring runoff Summer runoff
Projected changes of runoff (%), 2010-2015, relative to 1900-1978
Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.
Climate Change Impacts: Human Health
In summer seasons up to 2015, nearly the whole of the
Russian territory is expected to see more days with
extremely high air temperatures. This can have an
adverse effect on public health, particularly in large
cities.
Taking early actions (developing recommendations for
people exposed to high air temperatures, medical staff
training, etc.) can decrease an adverse effect of heat
waves on public health.
Climate Change Impacts: Human Health
A southern boundary of environmental discomfort zone is expected
to shift from 60 km (northwestern Russia) to 250 km
(Republic of Sakha-Yakutia)
Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.
Climate Change Impacts: the Arctic Region
Permafrost thawing: changes of seasonal melting depth (cm) in 2015
in comparison with 1981-2000 average
Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.
Conclusions
• Effects of climate change
vary greatly in different
regions of Russia
• Climate changes have
considerable impacts on
living conditions and
socio-economic aspects
• The expected climate
change may have both
negative and positive
impacts
• It is necessary to determine
the priority measures to
respond the current and
expected climate changes in
order to minimise the losses
from the negative impacts
and maximise the benefits of
the positive ones
Further Steps
• Conduction of a more
profound research of climatic
changes and their economic
effects in the regions,
especially in the most
vulnerable ones
• Extension of the list of
sectors covered in research
studies
• Support and development
of the early forecast and alert
systems against extreme
events
• Integration of adaptation
measures into regional
programmes of socioeconomic development
• Elaboration of National Strategy
aimed at development of
adaptation measures in different
sectors of the national economy
and its implementation at both
federal and regional levels
• Enhancement of international
co-operation in the field of
adaptation, including conduction
of joint research studies,
elaboration of common
approaches and unified criteria for
assessment, development and
transfer of new adaptation
technologies, etc.
• Awareness rising among all the
stakeholders
Thank you for your attention!
Julia Dobrolyubova
Phone/Fax: +7-495-737-6448
e-mail: [email protected]