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Unit Design Content Area Grade/Course Unit Title Duration of Unit Warren County Public Schools Math HS Algebra 2 Unit 11: Probability 5 days Priority Standards HSS-CP.B.6: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. HSS-CP.B.7: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. HSS-CP.B.9: Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems. Quality Core Standards H.1. Data Relations, Probability, and Statistics A. Use the fundamental counting principle to count the number of ways an event can happen B. Use counting techniques, like combinations and permutations, to solve problems (e.g., to calculate probabilities) C. Find the probability of mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events D. Find the probability of independent and dependent events E. Use unions, intersections, and complements to find probabilities F. Solve problems involving conditional probability Supporting Standards HSS-CP.A.1: Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events ("or," "and," "not"). HSS-CP.A.2: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterizations to determine if they are independent. HSS-CP.A.3: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as probability of B. HSS-CP.A.4: Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each other being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. For example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite subject among math, science, Unit Design Warren County Public Schools and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your school will favor science given that a student is in 10th grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare results. HSS-CP.A.5: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer. Concepts (nouns) Conditional Probability Probability Permutations and Combinations Fundamental Counting Principal Skills (verbs) Find/Interpret Calculate Compute/Solve Bloom’s Level (verb) Analyze Apply Apply Identify/Use Apply Learning Targets LT1: Use the fundamental counting principle to count the number of ways an event can happen. (3) LT2: Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems. (3) LT3: Calculate the probability of event A AND B and/or the probability of event A OR B (for both mutually and non-mutually exclusive events) (3). LT4: Find conditional probabilities and interpret the answer in terms of model. (4) Determine Big Ideas (lifelong understandings) Probability can be used to determine the chances of a real world event occurring. Write Essential Questions (Answer Big Idea, hook student interest. What are your chances of winning the lottery? What is the probability of Thanksgiving falling on Sunday? Formative Assessment Lesson(s): “The teacher leaders for the Gates grant work recommend that Warren County Administration adopt the practice that Warren County Math teachers do a minimum of one Formative Assessment Lesson per quarter. Other choices for formative assessment lessons may be found at http://map.mathshell.org/materials/lessons.php . Common Assessment(s): 2016 HS Algebra 2 Unit 11 DCA – Probability Version A 2016 HS Algebra 2 Unit 11 DCA – Probability Version B 2016 HS Algebra 2 Unit 11 DCA – Probability Version C Note: 2016 HS Algebra 2 Unit 11 DCA – Probability Review is to be used in conjunction with the above assessments.